(09-27-2021 12:53 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  I maintain that it's impossible for the AAC to get a CFP bid. (Call me bitter UCF fan if you want)

The stage is set for #7 Cincy. The highest ranking we have seen this early in the season for an AAC program.

Probably the most important OOC game in AAC history this week. Undefeated #9 Notre Dame has looked beatable. I don't want to focus too much on the game. Cincy/Notre Dame official game thread should be an epic thread later this week.

The glass ceiling exists for G5 conferences. Even if Cincy beats this undefeated Notre Dame team, the CFP committee wont allow a G5 in 4-team playoff. Even with Cincy having the Big12 invite in its back pocket, they wont set the precedent that an AAC team can make it to the playoff in the 4-team format.

I think its impossible due to the make up of the committee composition. The committee is overwhelmingly comprised of P5 representatives. Voting a G5 into the playoff requires the massively overweighted P5 contingency on the committee to eliminate a P5 candidate to make room for a G5 candidate. Its just not going to happen. Its too easy to just have the G5 float just outside of the top 4 of the CFP. Thats why the top 6 champion aspect of the new proposed CFP was so important to the AAC (or any G5 for that matter). It took away the committee discretion to decide IF a G5 was "playoff worthy" and replaced it with the question "Which G5 champ is MOST playoff worthy". Thats a HUGE difference.

(09-27-2021 04:19 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-27-2021 12:53 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  I maintain that it's impossible for the AAC to get a CFP bid. (Call me bitter UCF fan if you want)

The stage is set for #7 Cincy. The highest ranking we have seen this early in the season for an AAC program.

Probably the most important OOC game in AAC history this week. Undefeated #9 Notre Dame has looked beatable. I don't want to focus too much on the game. Cincy/Notre Dame official game thread should be an epic thread later this week.

The glass ceiling exists for G5 conferences. Even if Cincy beats this undefeated Notre Dame team, the CFP committee wont allow a G5 in 4-team playoff. Even with Cincy having the Big12 invite in its back pocket, they wont set the precedent that an AAC team can make it to the playoff in the 4-team format.

I think its impossible due to the make up of the committee composition. The committee is overwhelmingly comprised of P5 representatives. Voting a G5 into the playoff requires the massively overweighted P5 contingency on the committee to eliminate a P5 candidate to make room for a G5 candidate. Its just not going to happen. Its too easy to just have the G5 float just outside of the top 4 of the CFP. Thats why the top 6 champion aspect of the new proposed CFP was so important to the AAC (or any G5 for that matter). It took away the committee discretion to decide IF a G5 was "playoff worthy" and replaced it with the question "Which G5 champ is MOST playoff worthy". Thats a HUGE difference.

College Football is the worst administered sport in existence. It's a joke. Go AAC!!!

2-2 Clemson is still ranked, that should say it all.

The selection committee will easily say that cincys SOS is week, so there you go, that’s that, nothing to see here, move along, bug off and don’t come back, wouldn’t want to be ya, see ya!, NOT!

(09-27-2021 04:29 PM)Pirate Rep Wrote:  

(09-27-2021 04:19 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-27-2021 12:53 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  I maintain that it's impossible for the AAC to get a CFP bid. (Call me bitter UCF fan if you want)

The stage is set for #7 Cincy. The highest ranking we have seen this early in the season for an AAC program.

Probably the most important OOC game in AAC history this week. Undefeated #9 Notre Dame has looked beatable. I don't want to focus too much on the game. Cincy/Notre Dame official game thread should be an epic thread later this week.

The glass ceiling exists for G5 conferences. Even if Cincy beats this undefeated Notre Dame team, the CFP committee wont allow a G5 in 4-team playoff. Even with Cincy having the Big12 invite in its back pocket, they wont set the precedent that an AAC team can make it to the playoff in the 4-team format.

I think its impossible due to the make up of the committee composition. The committee is overwhelmingly comprised of P5 representatives. Voting a G5 into the playoff requires the massively overweighted P5 contingency on the committee to eliminate a P5 candidate to make room for a G5 candidate. Its just not going to happen. Its too easy to just have the G5 float just outside of the top 4 of the CFP. Thats why the top 6 champion aspect of the new proposed CFP was so important to the AAC (or any G5 for that matter). It took away the committee discretion to decide IF a G5 was "playoff worthy" and replaced it with the question "Which G5 champ is MOST playoff worthy". Thats a HUGE difference.

College Football is the worst administered sport in existence. It's a joke. Go AAC!!!

COMPLETELY agree, and now for something COMPLETELY different...

Tulsa will beat UC and ruin it for everyone

Cincinnati can SNEAK in to the CFP but it will require lots of unique scenarios to play out this season:
1. UC must of course go 13-0. And avoid close wins; decimate your opponents.
a) This must include a double digit win at Notre Dame, no last second miracle. It. must be convincing. Unfair? Hell, yes, but a non Cartel school trying to crash the CFP will NEVER be "fair".
b) SMU must help by being 10-0 and ranked around 12 or so when they visit UC. Again, UC must win convincingly.
c) Whoever plays UC in the AAC Championship hopefully only has 2 losses at most and is ranked even if it is in the 20's. Ranked wins help. Yes, the Bearcats need to crush that team, too.

NOW THE HARD PART - HOPE ALL OF THESE THINGS HAPPEN:
2) Whoever wins the SEC and B1G must dominate without fail. Those two are in, let's say Alabama and Penn State. Both need to finish 13-0.
3) Oklahoma needs to have 2 losses in the B12. Maybe Texas in that RR Shootout and an upset loss at Baylor or at OK State or ISU. UC needs a lucky 2 loss or more team to win the B12 Championship.
4) Likewise, UC needs one of the current 2-2 or worse schools to win the ACC - even Clemson. The odds are they will incur a 3rd loss and even if they win the ACC, 10-3 is a bridge too far for the Cartel to push them into the CFP over a 13-0 Cincinnati.
5) I think Oregon will win the Pac12 North and might just have 1 loss. Ideally the South winner is 7-5 and upsets them but if not, well - Oregon is in.
6) UC does NOT need any other G5 team to make a miracle 13-0 run to "challenge" the Bearcat undefeated season. So ideally all Sunbelt, MAC, CUSA, and MWC teams have a loss.
7) BYU is currently undefeated. Again, the "no competition" rule applies to them as well. Even 1 loss is sufficient. The Cougars do play at Baylor and Wash State plus host Boise State and Virginia. Maybe one of them can do UC a favor.
8) Georgia must lose two games yet they sit at # 2 in the rankings right now. This means UGA needs to lose to Arkansas, Auburn, or Florida and then again in the SEC Championship to Alabama. The nightmare scenario is Georgia loses to Florida but beats 12-0 Alabama for the SEC Championship.
9) The same applies to a 1 loss Michigan or Iowa in the B1G. Penn State must win over them in the B1G Championship so only PSU is undefeated and whoever is # 2 has 2 losses or more.

IF all of that happens, then the CFP folks will be hard pressed to deny/cheat a 13-0 # 6 Cincinnati from a CFP berth. And YES, no matter what, UC will NOT be ranked higher than # 6 this season. Many teams with 1 loss will be ahead of UC BEFORE the final CFP poll Dec. 5.

If the CFP voters award UC with a CRP berth, it will be # 4 and face # 1 Alabama or Penn State in the semi-final.

UC plays Tulsane, Tulsa, ECU, USF, Navy and Temple

good luck jumping an SEC team with that SOS.

Exactly. Yet another reason we can’t get out of this quickly enough.

It’s codified in the CFP charter that the highest ranked G5 champion goes to the access bowl. It’s as clear as daylight. G5 schools are inherently relegated to access bowl unless all other P5 champions have significantly worse record.

There is a revenue component too. G5 schools share 22 % of the revenue. If Cinci was to get in the playoff that distribution will have to change for that year.

(09-27-2021 06:37 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Exactly. Yet another reason we can’t get out of this quickly enough.

It makes me really happy knowing that we are ruining your dream season simply by sucking and losing to fcs teams

(09-27-2021 12:53 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  I maintain that it's impossible for the AAC to get a CFP bid. (Call me bitter UCF fan if you want)

The stage is set for #7 Cincy. The highest ranking we have seen this early in the season for an AAC program.

Probably the most important OOC game in AAC history this week. Undefeated #9 Notre Dame has looked beatable. I don't want to focus too much on the game. Cincy/Notre Dame official game thread should be an epic thread later this week.

The glass ceiling exists for G5 conferences. Even if Cincy beats this undefeated Notre Dame team, the CFP committee wont allow a G5 in 4-team playoff. Even with Cincy having the Big12 invite in its back pocket, they wont set the precedent that an AAC team can make it to the playoff in the 4-team format.

I think they have already shown they are not moving Cincy up the ladder. A big win over ND would help, but if they can find any way to avoid it Cincy is outside looking in.

(09-27-2021 06:37 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Exactly. Yet another reason we can’t get out of this quickly enough.

Yeah and you think the B-12 will still be A5 when you get in, yeah sure, remember cfp has a committee controlled by espn and the B-12 without the two blue bloods will not have sufficient SOS ( not enough media eyeballs ), just sayin man i know it’s hard to deal with but there it is...
Oh and tell me about how MUCH more money the B-12 is gonna get than the AAC after their new tv deal in 2025 ?,...... iam listening, ...... did you say $25 million !,?, yeah i thought so...

A 12-0 new big 12 team will get passed over by two SEC one loss teams every single year

It will not happen, ECU will beat them if Temple fails.

Memphis posters in this thread:

(09-27-2021 07:37 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  

(09-27-2021 06:37 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Exactly. Yet another reason we can’t get out of this quickly enough.

Yeah and you think the B-12 will still be A5 when you get in, yeah sure, remember cfp has a committee controlled by espn and the B-12 without the two blue bloods will not have sufficient SOS ( not enough media eyeballs ), just sayin man i know it’s hard to deal with but there it is...
Oh and tell me about how MUCH more money the B-12 is gonna get than the AAC after their new tv deal in 2025 ?,...... iam listening, ...... did you say $25 million !,?, yeah i thought so...

All true, but UC will have an easier path against the "cupcakes" in the BIG XII than they've ever had in the AAC.

(09-27-2021 06:37 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Exactly. Yet another reason we can’t get out of this quickly enough.

Yeah, big time schedule with TCU and TX Tech. Probably be in the playoff every year.

Let me let you all in on a dirty little secret. Cincy is now a P5 team. They go undefeated and they are in.......

(09-27-2021 04:07 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  

(09-27-2021 03:56 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  If cinci can finish undefeated, with a win over Notre Dame, I think it will be hard for them to jot get in.

really ???, remember now that there is a selection committee that is controlled by espn, mybe you’ve forgotten about that ?

If any of the big, big boys only lose 1 game, and that 1 loss would most likely be to another giant...(AL vs GA, OSU vs Mich, OU vs TX....etc...), they will get into the CFP before an undefeated UC. UC and the AAC would have to hope 1 of the top 4/5/6 teams have more than 1 loss. One good thing in UC's favor is....no Clemson and no ND, (if UC beats them).
It has been done. I think LSU won with 2 losses 1 yr. But that really WAS when all the pieces fell together for that to happen.
Too bad UC doesn't have a major challenger in the AAC...and I mean, another highly ranked team, to play. That's of course, the key to those other teams being ranked ahead of UC.
Has anyone noticed...there have been numerous teams that have lost before, then, # 8 UC and UC stayed the same? In 1 poll...lol...they went down after beating IN at IN.
They have inched up to 7.
This next game is...as someone said....the biggest game in AAC history with it's ramifications of beating #9 ND at ND. If UC is the undefeated #5 team in the balloting for those 4 spots....that will be much ballyhooed afterwards in the press.
That will actually be good press for the AAC.
But...it all depends on this week. Heck....if UC loses, CCU or FSU or someone else will get that NY's 6 if they are undefeated.