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Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
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WeatherfordOwl Offline
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Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
Interesting. I just went back and read through some of the 2008 Texas Bowl reviews after Rices resounding victory over Western Michigan. Everything was coming up roses. Nothing but blue skies and smooth sailing for David Bailiff and the Rice football program. And it seemed to be so for at least another four years, with several more bowl victories and a conference championship. I cannot figure what happened to the Bailiff train. After McHargue and Driphus left, the recruiting got sparse. No more James Casey’s, no more Turner Peterson’s, no more big fast tight ends, etc, etc, etc. something definitely changed after the Driphus years.
09-26-2021 09:58 PM
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franklyconfused Offline
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RE: Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
(09-26-2021 09:58 PM)WeatherfordOwl Wrote:  Interesting. I just went back and read through some of the 2008 Texas Bowl reviews after Rices resounding victory over Western Michigan. Everything was coming up roses. Nothing but blue skies and smooth sailing for David Bailiff and the Rice football program. And it seemed to be so for at least another four years, with several more bowl victories and a conference championship. I cannot figure what happened to the Bailiff train. After McHargue and Driphus left, the recruiting got sparse. No more James Casey’s, no more Turner Peterson’s, no more big fast tight ends, etc, etc, etc. something definitely changed after the Driphus years.

Added emphasis.

Did you forget 2009-11 where we went 10-26 with a season high of 4 wins? 2009 alone we immediately dropped down from 10 wins to 10 losses. Bailiff's only consecutive years above .500 were 2012-14. For as much fun as '08 was, it was a flash in the pan.

The redshirt seniors on the 2013 championship team, including McHargue, would have been recruits during that great '08 season. Driphus's Hawai'i Bowl in 2014 would have had recruits as far back as '09 when '08 looked fresh. Recruiting really dried up in 2011, at which point we'd had consecutive 4-win seasons.

You'd hope that we would have used the '13 championship and '12-'14 bowls to springboard back into competitive recruiting. It doesn't look like we did given that we haven't won more than 3 games in a year since, but it's hard to disentangle our individual recruiting from the decline in C-USA competition in 2013-14 and the change to Bloomgren in 2018 who, given his dogmatic approach to offense, could be expected to fail those first few years in taking over for any prior coach that did something different from him.
09-27-2021 12:06 PM
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Middle Ages Offline
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RE: Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
(09-27-2021 12:06 PM)franklyconfused Wrote:  
(09-26-2021 09:58 PM)WeatherfordOwl Wrote:  Interesting. I just went back and read through some of the 2008 Texas Bowl reviews after Rices resounding victory over Western Michigan. Everything was coming up roses. Nothing but blue skies and smooth sailing for David Bailiff and the Rice football program. And it seemed to be so for at least another four years, with several more bowl victories and a conference championship. I cannot figure what happened to the Bailiff train. After McHargue and Driphus left, the recruiting got sparse. No more James Casey’s, no more Turner Peterson’s, no more big fast tight ends, etc, etc, etc. something definitely changed after the Driphus years.

Added emphasis.

Did you forget 2009-11 where we went 10-26 with a season high of 4 wins? 2009 alone we immediately dropped down from 10 wins to 10 losses. Bailiff's only consecutive years above .500 were 2012-14. For as much fun as '08 was, it was a flash in the pan.

The redshirt seniors on the 2013 championship team, including McHargue, would have been recruits during that great '08 season. Driphus's Hawai'i Bowl in 2014 would have had recruits as far back as '09 when '08 looked fresh. Recruiting really dried up in 2011, at which point we'd had consecutive 4-win seasons.

You'd hope that we would have used the '13 championship and '12-'14 bowls to springboard back into competitive recruiting. It doesn't look like we did given that we haven't won more than 3 games in a year since, but it's hard to disentangle our individual recruiting from the decline in C-USA competition in 2013-14 and the change to Bloomgren in 2018 who, given his dogmatic approach to offense, could be expected to fail those first few years in taking over for any prior coach that did something different from him.

Memories get a little hazy for over a decade ago, but I seem to recall Bailiff was planning to play Casey at QB in 2009 and was blindsided that he went pro (I think he still had 2 years of eligibility?). Think about our QB issues in 2009 and 2010 and how different that would have been. Now- we should have had better options behind him, and that's on DB, but that was a big blow. Very similar IMO to 2015 when our two best defensive players, Covington, who went pro a year early, and Nordstrom, who took a great job offer and left early. We always have issues with depth, and losing those types of guys unexpectedly hurts us more than the big programs, again just IMO
09-27-2021 12:24 PM
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RE: Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
(09-27-2021 12:06 PM)franklyconfused Wrote:  Did you forget 2009-11 where we went 10-26 with a season high of 4 wins? 2009 alone we immediately dropped down from 10 wins to 10 losses.

That was when I moved from on the fence about Bailiff to believing he was the wrong man for the job.
09-27-2021 12:40 PM
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georgewebb Offline
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RE: Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
(09-27-2021 12:24 PM)Middle Ages Wrote:  
(09-27-2021 12:06 PM)franklyconfused Wrote:  
(09-26-2021 09:58 PM)WeatherfordOwl Wrote:  Interesting. I just went back and read through some of the 2008 Texas Bowl reviews after Rices resounding victory over Western Michigan. Everything was coming up roses. Nothing but blue skies and smooth sailing for David Bailiff and the Rice football program. And it seemed to be so for at least another four years, with several more bowl victories and a conference championship. I cannot figure what happened to the Bailiff train. After McHargue and Driphus left, the recruiting got sparse. No more James Casey’s, no more Turner Peterson’s, no more big fast tight ends, etc, etc, etc. something definitely changed after the Driphus years.

Added emphasis.

Did you forget 2009-11 where we went 10-26 with a season high of 4 wins? 2009 alone we immediately dropped down from 10 wins to 10 losses. Bailiff's only consecutive years above .500 were 2012-14. For as much fun as '08 was, it was a flash in the pan.

The redshirt seniors on the 2013 championship team, including McHargue, would have been recruits during that great '08 season. Driphus's Hawai'i Bowl in 2014 would have had recruits as far back as '09 when '08 looked fresh. Recruiting really dried up in 2011, at which point we'd had consecutive 4-win seasons.

You'd hope that we would have used the '13 championship and '12-'14 bowls to springboard back into competitive recruiting. It doesn't look like we did given that we haven't won more than 3 games in a year since, but it's hard to disentangle our individual recruiting from the decline in C-USA competition in 2013-14 and the change to Bloomgren in 2018 who, given his dogmatic approach to offense, could be expected to fail those first few years in taking over for any prior coach that did something different from him.

Memories get a little hazy for over a decade ago, but I seem to recall Bailiff was planning to play Casey at QB in 2009 and was blindsided that he went pro (I think he still had 2 years of eligibility?). Think about our QB issues in 2009 and 2010 and how different that would have been. Now- we should have had better options behind him, and that's on DB, but that was a big blow. Very similar IMO to 2015 when our two best defensive players, Covington, who went pro a year early, and Nordstrom, who took a great job offer and left early. We always have issues with depth, and losing those types of guys unexpectedly hurts us more than the big programs, again just IMO

It's the descriptive modifiers that are concerning: a team that has players of the caliber to have those sorts of options should not consider itself blindsided when the players take those options.
09-27-2021 12:51 PM
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ExcitedOwl18 Offline
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RE: Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
(09-27-2021 12:06 PM)franklyconfused Wrote:  
(09-26-2021 09:58 PM)WeatherfordOwl Wrote:  Interesting. I just went back and read through some of the 2008 Texas Bowl reviews after Rices resounding victory over Western Michigan. Everything was coming up roses. Nothing but blue skies and smooth sailing for David Bailiff and the Rice football program. And it seemed to be so for at least another four years, with several more bowl victories and a conference championship. I cannot figure what happened to the Bailiff train. After McHargue and Driphus left, the recruiting got sparse. No more James Casey’s, no more Turner Peterson’s, no more big fast tight ends, etc, etc, etc. something definitely changed after the Driphus years.

Added emphasis.

Did you forget 2009-11 where we went 10-26 with a season high of 4 wins? 2009 alone we immediately dropped down from 10 wins to 10 losses. Bailiff's only consecutive years above .500 were 2012-14. For as much fun as '08 was, it was a flash in the pan.

The redshirt seniors on the 2013 championship team, including McHargue, would have been recruits during that great '08 season. Driphus's Hawai'i Bowl in 2014 would have had recruits as far back as '09 when '08 looked fresh. Recruiting really dried up in 2011, at which point we'd had consecutive 4-win seasons.

You'd hope that we would have used the '13 championship and '12-'14 bowls to springboard back into competitive recruiting. It doesn't look like we did given that we haven't won more than 3 games in a year since, but it's hard to disentangle our individual recruiting from the decline in C-USA competition in 2013-14 and the change to Bloomgren in 2018 who, given his dogmatic approach to offense, could be expected to fail those first few years in taking over for any prior coach that did something different from him.

Big issue in the 2011-12 time frame was attrition.

In 2011, we signed 19 guys.. Of those 19, many played in close to zero games in a Rice uniform (if not zero):

-Miles Lee (got hurt early and never played but did end up graduating from Rice)
-Justin Booth (never played for Rice-not sure he ever made it to campus)
-JJ Walker (never played for Rice-left Rice after redshirt year)
-Edwin Hooper (never played for Rice-left Rice after redshirt year)
-Austin Williams (went on a Mormon mission, came back to Rice in 2015 and played a couple games on special teams but eventual medical DQ).
-Matt Wofford (played in a couple games his RS freshman year before leaving Rice)
-Michael Sam (played in a couple games his RS freshman year, got hurt but did end up graduating from Rice)
-Lovett Gibson (played in a couple games his RS freshman year before leaving Rice)

That's 42% of the class not playing meaningful time at Rice! And I didn't include guys who played, but weren't super impactful or reliable players (i.e. John Poehlmann, Grant Peterson)

In 2012, we signed 24 and of those, again, lots of issues:

-David Wilganowski (had the health issue in HS but came to Rice and graduated-hard to blame Bailiff for this one)
-Cam Decell (Came to Rice as a punter but didn't pan out. Tried to convert him to a receiver but that didn't pan out. Graduated from Rice)
-Andre Anderson (never played in a game at Rice)
-Michael Warren (played in a couple games in 2012 but eventual medical DQ. Graduated from Rice)
-Justin Carter (never played for Rice due to injuries. Graduated from Rice)
-Brandon Dawkins (was on the team for five years and graduated-but never played meaningful snaps)
-Reid Mitchell (was on the team for five years and graduated-but never played meaningful snaps)
-Derek Brown (had his ups and downs with the football program and the university-but was good when he (sparingly) played!)
-Brandon Hamilton (where to start...)

I could do this for every class... Anthony Canady (really promising CB from '13 class), Jeremy Jones (decided he'd rather play basketball as a walk-on at Gonzaga), Kylen Granson (left the university without telling anyone when Bloomgren got hired despite being a great student-proceeded to get drafted this past year out of SMU-MASSIVELY underutilized by Bailiff)...

Not even going to mention the players who played who were just... not very good.. That's not fair to them-but also an indictment on Bailiff's roster management.
09-27-2021 01:01 PM
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Middle Ages Offline
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RE: Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
(09-27-2021 12:51 PM)georgewebb Wrote:  
(09-27-2021 12:24 PM)Middle Ages Wrote:  
(09-27-2021 12:06 PM)franklyconfused Wrote:  
(09-26-2021 09:58 PM)WeatherfordOwl Wrote:  Interesting. I just went back and read through some of the 2008 Texas Bowl reviews after Rices resounding victory over Western Michigan. Everything was coming up roses. Nothing but blue skies and smooth sailing for David Bailiff and the Rice football program. And it seemed to be so for at least another four years, with several more bowl victories and a conference championship. I cannot figure what happened to the Bailiff train. After McHargue and Driphus left, the recruiting got sparse. No more James Casey’s, no more Turner Peterson’s, no more big fast tight ends, etc, etc, etc. something definitely changed after the Driphus years.

Added emphasis.

Did you forget 2009-11 where we went 10-26 with a season high of 4 wins? 2009 alone we immediately dropped down from 10 wins to 10 losses. Bailiff's only consecutive years above .500 were 2012-14. For as much fun as '08 was, it was a flash in the pan.

The redshirt seniors on the 2013 championship team, including McHargue, would have been recruits during that great '08 season. Driphus's Hawai'i Bowl in 2014 would have had recruits as far back as '09 when '08 looked fresh. Recruiting really dried up in 2011, at which point we'd had consecutive 4-win seasons.

You'd hope that we would have used the '13 championship and '12-'14 bowls to springboard back into competitive recruiting. It doesn't look like we did given that we haven't won more than 3 games in a year since, but it's hard to disentangle our individual recruiting from the decline in C-USA competition in 2013-14 and the change to Bloomgren in 2018 who, given his dogmatic approach to offense, could be expected to fail those first few years in taking over for any prior coach that did something different from him.

Memories get a little hazy for over a decade ago, but I seem to recall Bailiff was planning to play Casey at QB in 2009 and was blindsided that he went pro (I think he still had 2 years of eligibility?). Think about our QB issues in 2009 and 2010 and how different that would have been. Now- we should have had better options behind him, and that's on DB, but that was a big blow. Very similar IMO to 2015 when our two best defensive players, Covington, who went pro a year early, and Nordstrom, who took a great job offer and left early. We always have issues with depth, and losing those types of guys unexpectedly hurts us more than the big programs, again just IMO

It's the descriptive modifiers that are concerning: a team that has players of the caliber to have those sorts of options should not consider itself blindsided when the players take those options.

I think all of those moves were unexpected by everyone involved with the program. It wasn't like a lot of programs where it's expected to lose some guys after 2-3 years- or that any of those I mentioned were projected in the 1-2 rounds.
And we didn't have a team full of those players. Those were huge hits to the program
09-27-2021 01:04 PM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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RE: Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
(09-27-2021 01:01 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  
(09-27-2021 12:06 PM)franklyconfused Wrote:  
(09-26-2021 09:58 PM)WeatherfordOwl Wrote:  Interesting. I just went back and read through some of the 2008 Texas Bowl reviews after Rices resounding victory over Western Michigan. Everything was coming up roses. Nothing but blue skies and smooth sailing for David Bailiff and the Rice football program. And it seemed to be so for at least another four years, with several more bowl victories and a conference championship. I cannot figure what happened to the Bailiff train. After McHargue and Driphus left, the recruiting got sparse. No more James Casey’s, no more Turner Peterson’s, no more big fast tight ends, etc, etc, etc. something definitely changed after the Driphus years.

Added emphasis.

Did you forget 2009-11 where we went 10-26 with a season high of 4 wins? 2009 alone we immediately dropped down from 10 wins to 10 losses. Bailiff's only consecutive years above .500 were 2012-14. For as much fun as '08 was, it was a flash in the pan.

The redshirt seniors on the 2013 championship team, including McHargue, would have been recruits during that great '08 season. Driphus's Hawai'i Bowl in 2014 would have had recruits as far back as '09 when '08 looked fresh. Recruiting really dried up in 2011, at which point we'd had consecutive 4-win seasons.

You'd hope that we would have used the '13 championship and '12-'14 bowls to springboard back into competitive recruiting. It doesn't look like we did given that we haven't won more than 3 games in a year since, but it's hard to disentangle our individual recruiting from the decline in C-USA competition in 2013-14 and the change to Bloomgren in 2018 who, given his dogmatic approach to offense, could be expected to fail those first few years in taking over for any prior coach that did something different from him.

Big issue in the 2011-12 time frame was attrition.

In 2011, we signed 19 guys.. Of those 19, many played in close to zero games in a Rice uniform (if not zero):

-Miles Lee (got hurt early and never played but did end up graduating from Rice)
-Justin Booth (never played for Rice-not sure he ever made it to campus)
-JJ Walker (never played for Rice-left Rice after redshirt year)
-Edwin Hooper (never played for Rice-left Rice after redshirt year)
-Austin Williams (went on a Mormon mission, came back to Rice in 2015 and played a couple games on special teams but eventual medical DQ).
-Matt Wofford (played in a couple games his RS freshman year before leaving Rice)
-Michael Sam (played in a couple games his RS freshman year, got hurt but did end up graduating from Rice)
-Lovett Gibson (played in a couple games his RS freshman year before leaving Rice)

That's 42% of the class not playing meaningful time at Rice! And I didn't include guys who played, but weren't super impactful or reliable players (i.e. John Poehlmann, Grant Peterson)

In 2012, we signed 24 and of those, again, lots of issues:

-David Wilganowski (had the health issue in HS but came to Rice and graduated-hard to blame Bailiff for this one)
-Cam Decell (Came to Rice as a punter but didn't pan out. Tried to convert him to a receiver but that didn't pan out. Graduated from Rice)
-Andre Anderson (never played in a game at Rice)
-Michael Warren (played in a couple games in 2012 but eventual medical DQ. Graduated from Rice)
-Justin Carter (never played for Rice due to injuries. Graduated from Rice)
-Brandon Dawkins (was on the team for five years and graduated-but never played meaningful snaps)
-Reid Mitchell (was on the team for five years and graduated-but never played meaningful snaps)
-Derek Brown (had his ups and downs with the football program and the university-but was good when he (sparingly) played!)
-Brandon Hamilton (where to start...)

I could do this for every class... Anthony Canady (really promising CB from '13 class), Jeremy Jones (decided he'd rather play basketball as a walk-on at Gonzaga), Kylen Granson (left the university without telling anyone when Bloomgren got hired despite being a great student-proceeded to get drafted this past year out of SMU-MASSIVELY underutilized by Bailiff)...

Not even going to mention the players who played who were just... not very good.. That's not fair to them-but also an indictment on Bailiff's roster management.

We haven't had someone drafted since 2015 - a 6 year drought. We had a similar 6 year drought from 97 - 03 and 03 - 09.

That lines up with recruiting issues starting in 2011/2012 and continuing to this day.

Christ, does that mean we have basically been whiffing massively for almost a decade?
09-27-2021 01:11 PM
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ExcitedOwl18 Offline
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RE: Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
(09-27-2021 01:11 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(09-27-2021 01:01 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  
(09-27-2021 12:06 PM)franklyconfused Wrote:  
(09-26-2021 09:58 PM)WeatherfordOwl Wrote:  Interesting. I just went back and read through some of the 2008 Texas Bowl reviews after Rices resounding victory over Western Michigan. Everything was coming up roses. Nothing but blue skies and smooth sailing for David Bailiff and the Rice football program. And it seemed to be so for at least another four years, with several more bowl victories and a conference championship. I cannot figure what happened to the Bailiff train. After McHargue and Driphus left, the recruiting got sparse. No more James Casey’s, no more Turner Peterson’s, no more big fast tight ends, etc, etc, etc. something definitely changed after the Driphus years.

Added emphasis.

Did you forget 2009-11 where we went 10-26 with a season high of 4 wins? 2009 alone we immediately dropped down from 10 wins to 10 losses. Bailiff's only consecutive years above .500 were 2012-14. For as much fun as '08 was, it was a flash in the pan.

The redshirt seniors on the 2013 championship team, including McHargue, would have been recruits during that great '08 season. Driphus's Hawai'i Bowl in 2014 would have had recruits as far back as '09 when '08 looked fresh. Recruiting really dried up in 2011, at which point we'd had consecutive 4-win seasons.

You'd hope that we would have used the '13 championship and '12-'14 bowls to springboard back into competitive recruiting. It doesn't look like we did given that we haven't won more than 3 games in a year since, but it's hard to disentangle our individual recruiting from the decline in C-USA competition in 2013-14 and the change to Bloomgren in 2018 who, given his dogmatic approach to offense, could be expected to fail those first few years in taking over for any prior coach that did something different from him.

Big issue in the 2011-12 time frame was attrition.

In 2011, we signed 19 guys.. Of those 19, many played in close to zero games in a Rice uniform (if not zero):

-Miles Lee (got hurt early and never played but did end up graduating from Rice)
-Justin Booth (never played for Rice-not sure he ever made it to campus)
-JJ Walker (never played for Rice-left Rice after redshirt year)
-Edwin Hooper (never played for Rice-left Rice after redshirt year)
-Austin Williams (went on a Mormon mission, came back to Rice in 2015 and played a couple games on special teams but eventual medical DQ).
-Matt Wofford (played in a couple games his RS freshman year before leaving Rice)
-Michael Sam (played in a couple games his RS freshman year, got hurt but did end up graduating from Rice)
-Lovett Gibson (played in a couple games his RS freshman year before leaving Rice)

That's 42% of the class not playing meaningful time at Rice! And I didn't include guys who played, but weren't super impactful or reliable players (i.e. John Poehlmann, Grant Peterson)

In 2012, we signed 24 and of those, again, lots of issues:

-David Wilganowski (had the health issue in HS but came to Rice and graduated-hard to blame Bailiff for this one)
-Cam Decell (Came to Rice as a punter but didn't pan out. Tried to convert him to a receiver but that didn't pan out. Graduated from Rice)
-Andre Anderson (never played in a game at Rice)
-Michael Warren (played in a couple games in 2012 but eventual medical DQ. Graduated from Rice)
-Justin Carter (never played for Rice due to injuries. Graduated from Rice)
-Brandon Dawkins (was on the team for five years and graduated-but never played meaningful snaps)
-Reid Mitchell (was on the team for five years and graduated-but never played meaningful snaps)
-Derek Brown (had his ups and downs with the football program and the university-but was good when he (sparingly) played!)
-Brandon Hamilton (where to start...)

I could do this for every class... Anthony Canady (really promising CB from '13 class), Jeremy Jones (decided he'd rather play basketball as a walk-on at Gonzaga), Kylen Granson (left the university without telling anyone when Bloomgren got hired despite being a great student-proceeded to get drafted this past year out of SMU-MASSIVELY underutilized by Bailiff)...

Not even going to mention the players who played who were just... not very good.. That's not fair to them-but also an indictment on Bailiff's roster management.

We haven't had someone drafted since 2015 - a 6 year drought. We had a similar 6 year drought from 97 - 03 and 03 - 09.

That lines up with recruiting issues starting in 2011/2012 and continuing to this day.

Christ, does that mean we have basically been whiffing massively for almost a decade?

Yup! And not sure I see a draftable player on the roster right now, either.
09-27-2021 01:26 PM
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westsidewolf1989 Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
(09-27-2021 01:26 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  Yup! And not sure I see a draftable player on the roster right now, either.

Key phrase there...Blaze will certainly get drafted, so that's at least one point for recruiting under Bloomgren.
09-27-2021 02:02 PM
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ExcitedOwl18 Offline
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RE: Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
(09-27-2021 02:02 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  
(09-27-2021 01:26 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  Yup! And not sure I see a draftable player on the roster right now, either.

Key phrase there...Blaze will certainly get drafted, so that's at least one point for recruiting under Bloomgren.

Eh, every school has transfers but the expectation is that we should still be getting players drafted directly from Rice. Look at our conference peers.

Also, Alldredge isn't viewed as a surefire draftee.

https://twitter.com/TonyPauline/status/1...78466?s=20
(This post was last modified: 09-27-2021 02:27 PM by ExcitedOwl18.)
09-27-2021 02:25 PM
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owl40 Offline
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RE: Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
Good thread.

Was thinking about this watching some of the old Rice players still in NFL yesterday (Boz, Covington, etc.)

DB's teams that won had a common theme of really good QB play with lots of NFL-level talent around that QB. When there was not good QB play and so many busts of recruits after those winning years, DB's teams suffered.

Fast forward to today and lots of energy justifiably spent on the problems w/ schemes, coaching, etc. but not much spent on the really poor recruiting in DB's last few years and Blooms first three years..especially at skill positions and kicker. Using grad transfers to plug holes is not a strategy. Only area that has seen real progress is a few stout folks on the DL.

The talent gap between Texas and Rice has been and always will be there. But this year, I was thinking about how it has grown to an all-time high. Yes a few injuries did not help, but there is just not much talent on this team or any of the teams over the past 7+ years when DB's better/early recruits were graduating.

Bad schemes + No real talent = Team that should lose 9-11 games this year.
09-27-2021 03:03 PM
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Pan95 Offline
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RE: Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
(09-27-2021 02:25 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  
(09-27-2021 02:02 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  
(09-27-2021 01:26 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  Yup! And not sure I see a draftable player on the roster right now, either.

Key phrase there...Blaze will certainly get drafted, so that's at least one point for recruiting under Bloomgren.

Eh, every school has transfers but the expectation is that we should still be getting players drafted directly from Rice. Look at our conference peers.

Also, Alldredge isn't viewed as a surefire draftee.

https://twitter.com/TonyPauline/status/1...78466?s=20

I would think that Carroll might get a look once healthy. There was talk that Blain Padgett was receiving visits from scouts but yeah...truly sad.

In a perfect well, Jordan Meyers goes on a tear and finishes with 1500+ all purpose yards over the course of the next 8 games, gets drafted an makes an impact in the NFL.
09-27-2021 03:21 PM
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RiceOwls2019 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
(09-27-2021 03:03 PM)owl40 Wrote:  Good thread.

Was thinking about this watching some of the old Rice players still in NFL yesterday (Boz, Covington, etc.)

DB's teams that won had a common theme of really good QB play with lots of NFL-level talent around that QB. When there was not good QB play and so many busts of recruits after those winning years, DB's teams suffered.

Fast forward to today and lots of energy justifiably spent on the problems w/ schemes, coaching, etc. but not much spent on the really poor recruiting in DB's last few years and Blooms first three years..especially at skill positions and kicker. Using grad transfers to plug holes is not a strategy. Only area that has seen real progress is a few stout folks on the DL.

The talent gap between Texas and Rice has been and always will be there. But this year, I was thinking about how it has grown to an all-time high. Yes a few injuries did not help, but there is just not much talent on this team or any of the teams over the past 7+ years when DB's better/early recruits were graduating.

Bad schemes + No real talent = Team that should lose 9-11 games this year.

If you read The Roost you’ll see that we are recruiting at our highest level ever (eye roll).
09-27-2021 03:23 PM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
(09-27-2021 03:23 PM)RiceOwls2019 Wrote:  
(09-27-2021 03:03 PM)owl40 Wrote:  Good thread.

Was thinking about this watching some of the old Rice players still in NFL yesterday (Boz, Covington, etc.)

DB's teams that won had a common theme of really good QB play with lots of NFL-level talent around that QB. When there was not good QB play and so many busts of recruits after those winning years, DB's teams suffered.

Fast forward to today and lots of energy justifiably spent on the problems w/ schemes, coaching, etc. but not much spent on the really poor recruiting in DB's last few years and Blooms first three years..especially at skill positions and kicker. Using grad transfers to plug holes is not a strategy. Only area that has seen real progress is a few stout folks on the DL.

The talent gap between Texas and Rice has been and always will be there. But this year, I was thinking about how it has grown to an all-time high. Yes a few injuries did not help, but there is just not much talent on this team or any of the teams over the past 7+ years when DB's better/early recruits were graduating.

Bad schemes + No real talent = Team that should lose 9-11 games this year.

If you read The Roost you’ll see that we are recruiting at our highest level ever (eye roll).

We may be from a high school rating perspective.

Potential line of evidence that the coach is not able to develop and maintain talent.
09-27-2021 03:35 PM
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Pan95 Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
(09-27-2021 03:35 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(09-27-2021 03:23 PM)RiceOwls2019 Wrote:  
(09-27-2021 03:03 PM)owl40 Wrote:  Good thread.

Was thinking about this watching some of the old Rice players still in NFL yesterday (Boz, Covington, etc.)

DB's teams that won had a common theme of really good QB play with lots of NFL-level talent around that QB. When there was not good QB play and so many busts of recruits after those winning years, DB's teams suffered.

Fast forward to today and lots of energy justifiably spent on the problems w/ schemes, coaching, etc. but not much spent on the really poor recruiting in DB's last few years and Blooms first three years..especially at skill positions and kicker. Using grad transfers to plug holes is not a strategy. Only area that has seen real progress is a few stout folks on the DL.

The talent gap between Texas and Rice has been and always will be there. But this year, I was thinking about how it has grown to an all-time high. Yes a few injuries did not help, but there is just not much talent on this team or any of the teams over the past 7+ years when DB's better/early recruits were graduating.

Bad schemes + No real talent = Team that should lose 9-11 games this year.

If you read The Roost you’ll see that we are recruiting at our highest level ever (eye roll).

We may be from a high school rating perspective.

Potential line of evidence that the coach is not able to develop and maintain talent.

That seems to be a similar refrain from the Bailiff years. So if both Bloomgren and Bailiff struggled with similar issues, is the root cause more than just coaching? Or have we potentially missed on two coaches? Would Graham have eventually run into the same issues?
09-27-2021 03:40 PM
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ExcitedOwl18 Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
(09-27-2021 03:23 PM)RiceOwls2019 Wrote:  
(09-27-2021 03:03 PM)owl40 Wrote:  Good thread.

Was thinking about this watching some of the old Rice players still in NFL yesterday (Boz, Covington, etc.)

DB's teams that won had a common theme of really good QB play with lots of NFL-level talent around that QB. When there was not good QB play and so many busts of recruits after those winning years, DB's teams suffered.

Fast forward to today and lots of energy justifiably spent on the problems w/ schemes, coaching, etc. but not much spent on the really poor recruiting in DB's last few years and Blooms first three years..especially at skill positions and kicker. Using grad transfers to plug holes is not a strategy. Only area that has seen real progress is a few stout folks on the DL.

The talent gap between Texas and Rice has been and always will be there. But this year, I was thinking about how it has grown to an all-time high. Yes a few injuries did not help, but there is just not much talent on this team or any of the teams over the past 7+ years when DB's better/early recruits were graduating.

Bad schemes + No real talent = Team that should lose 9-11 games this year.

If you read The Roost you’ll see that we are recruiting at our highest level ever (eye roll).

The Roost is good for injury updates and that’s about it. But I still subscribe on Patreon.. Because at least he’s covering the team.
09-27-2021 03:50 PM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
(09-27-2021 03:40 PM)Pan95 Wrote:  
(09-27-2021 03:35 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(09-27-2021 03:23 PM)RiceOwls2019 Wrote:  
(09-27-2021 03:03 PM)owl40 Wrote:  Good thread.

Was thinking about this watching some of the old Rice players still in NFL yesterday (Boz, Covington, etc.)

DB's teams that won had a common theme of really good QB play with lots of NFL-level talent around that QB. When there was not good QB play and so many busts of recruits after those winning years, DB's teams suffered.

Fast forward to today and lots of energy justifiably spent on the problems w/ schemes, coaching, etc. but not much spent on the really poor recruiting in DB's last few years and Blooms first three years..especially at skill positions and kicker. Using grad transfers to plug holes is not a strategy. Only area that has seen real progress is a few stout folks on the DL.

The talent gap between Texas and Rice has been and always will be there. But this year, I was thinking about how it has grown to an all-time high. Yes a few injuries did not help, but there is just not much talent on this team or any of the teams over the past 7+ years when DB's better/early recruits were graduating.

Bad schemes + No real talent = Team that should lose 9-11 games this year.

If you read The Roost you’ll see that we are recruiting at our highest level ever (eye roll).

We may be from a high school rating perspective.

Potential line of evidence that the coach is not able to develop and maintain talent.

That seems to be a similar refrain from the Bailiff years. So if both Bloomgren and Bailiff struggled with similar issues, is the root cause more than just coaching? Or have we potentially missed on two coaches? Would Graham have eventually run into the same issues?

I never fully bought the idea that Bailiff wasn’t developing talent during his entire tenure here. I feel like he turned a number of recruits into NFL caliber players and at least maintained the skills of those he inherited.
09-27-2021 04:11 PM
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mebehutchi Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
(09-27-2021 12:40 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(09-27-2021 12:06 PM)franklyconfused Wrote:  Did you forget 2009-11 where we went 10-26 with a season high of 4 wins? 2009 alone we immediately dropped down from 10 wins to 10 losses.

That was when I moved from on the fence about Bailiff to believing he was the wrong man for the job.

We still had enough to beat a heavily favored UH team and a Purdue team that beat Ohio State that year during that period. I think that's light years from what we have now.
09-27-2021 05:16 PM
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WRCisforgotten79 Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Review of Upbeat Projections from 2008
(09-27-2021 03:03 PM)owl40 Wrote:  Bad schemes + No real talent = Team that should lose 9-11 games this year.

Finally, someone has the stones to say what most of us are thinking.
09-27-2021 05:40 PM
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