CrimsonPhantom
CUSA Curator
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RE: America: On the Threshold of Socialism
Manchin and Sinema Are Playing a Game Democrats Forget to Play
Quote:In 2008, the Democrats thought they had a mandate. They pushed through the Affordable Care Act, thinking they would have a permanent political majority. Once they tackled that, they began talking a lot about other things, like gun control and other progressive policies. But Obamacare and those policies were so unpopular that the voter backlash was consistently harsh. They lost the House, then the Senate, and then the White House.
They played a full-court press in order to regain political power. They threw everything against Donald Trump to see what would stick. At the end of Trump’s first term, with the help of the media, they took back power.
In decades past, the Democrats were better at playing the long game. They could push slowly, moving the football down the field. But in the last 12 years, they have sped their game up and started throwing a lot of Hail Marys. As a result, they are losing political power faster than they gained it. It took four years to reclaim two branches of government. In essence, it feels like they’ve lost it all again in one year.
Congress is at a stalemate, and while I figure we probably will get an infrastructure package, a bad reconciliation bill, and a raised debt ceiling, concessions to Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin will neuter a lot of the progressive political agenda. This works in our favor now, but there isn’t some political dynamic shifting going on with those two. Sinema is not the “maverick” John McCain was. Shes’s just trying to establish a more permanent presence in the Senate.
Likewise, Manchin is juggling (quite well, I might add) a few different goals. The first is to not piss his party off too much, which he is doing well as only the far left is supremely pissed at him. The second goal is to control the fate of the Green New Deal. The third goal is to keep blue collar oil field and coal miners happy. All of this is meant to help him stay in power.
The play appears to be working for both. There’s good polling right now for Sinema.
And for Manchin, the numbers appear to be very hopeful as well.
Why it matters: The survey of 974 registered voters, conducted Tuesday, is the latest flash point in the fight over infrastructure — and how aggressively Democrats should move on a budget reconciliation package to allow them to enact key planks of President Biden’s agenda without a single GOP vote.
By the numbers: In suburban areas, which are crucial to Democrats’ hopes to retain the House in 2022, the poll found 64% support the pause while 36% oppose it.
The poll revealed stark partisan differences, with Republicans supporting Manchin’s position by a 78% to 22% margin and Democrats opposing him, 48%-52%. Independents were split, backing Manchin 52% to 48%
In rural areas, seven in 10 respondents supported Manchin.
Sinema and Manchin both realize something the progressives attempting to (and currently succeeding in) controlling the party don’t: They know that the only way to win is to play the long game, and the only way to play the long game is to stay in office.
The young progressives in the party don’t yet realize that they are burning through their political capital with the voters at an unsustainable rate. Their party is on the way to a loss in 2022 if they continue to loudly and vocally push for these far left agendas that scare the hell out of the voters. Bernie Sanders knows his time in politics is almost up, so he’s pushing to get some of his long-held political goals pushed through. None of them realize just how much they are chasing voters away.
Or they don’t care, so long as they get what they want.
Eventually, the Democratic Party will probably get what they want. They are still at odds with themselves over how to do it, but it’s probably going to happen. Just how much it happens, however, will depend on Sinema and Manchin and those two, only. Republicans don’t have to lift a finger over any of it, because they know the fight only benefits them in the long run.
When Joe Manchin Will Kill the Filibuster
Quote:This week’s Beltway brawls over infrastructure, the Biden fiscal agenda and the federal debt ceiling, for all their sound and fury, are merely preliminary legislative bouts. The main event of the 117th Congress will be the epic fight over “voting rights.” The Democrats know their congressional majorities are unlikely to survive next year’s midterms unless both houses pass one of three controversial bills — the For the People Act, the John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act, or the Freedom to Vote Act. Deceptively benign titles notwithstanding, each of these bills arrogate to the federal government powers reserved to the states by the Constitution.
The first two were passed by the House but were DOA in the Senate. The Freedom to Vote Act, however, is a Senate bill (S.2747) and it is co-sponsored by Sen. Manchin. When the current budget battles are over, the Democrats will send S.2747 to the Senate floor for a vote. It will fail to garner 60 votes, whereupon Manchin will claim GOP intransigence “forced” him to break his pledge to preserve the filibuster. Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema, the only other Democratic senator overtly opposed to killing the filibuster, will by then be so damaged by the abuse to which she is now being subjected over Biden’s $3.5 trillion spending bill that she will immediately cave and begin reciting the obligatory talking points:
In the face of state-level threats that undercut the fundamental right to vote for millions of Americans, we must act now to protect our democracy. Our bill would set commonsense minimum standards to ensure that no state infringes upon its citizen’s right to vote and confront widespread anti-democratic practices such as partisan gerrymandering and dark money spending. Free, fair and open elections are the backbone of our national commitment to government of the people, by the people, and for the people – and through this legislation, we will do our part to pass this experiment in self-government on to the next generation of Americans.
This claim that there is a vast Republican conspiracy to suppress the vote is fiction. It is nothing more than empty agitprop for Democrats to deploy against states that pass election integrity laws. When the Georgia legislature passed the Election Integrity Act of 2021, for example, President Biden repeated so many falsehoods about the law that the Washington Post awarded him four Pinocchios. The same false charges have been leveled at Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, New Hampshire, Montana, Nevada, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming. No matter how many times these charges have been debunked the Democrats continue to recycle them on cue.
However, for the Democrats, mere facts are irrelevant. Election integrity laws are an existential threat to the very survival of their party. They are ostensibly led by a President whose job approval rating hovers in the low to mid-forties in most national polls. His numbers are even worse in important battleground states. A new survey conducted in North Carolina shows Biden with an approval rating of 38 percent. This is unlikely to improve significantly if his domestic and foreign policy blunders continue to mount at their current rate. Combined with an upcoming midterm election cycle that is historically unkind to the party in power, this is lethal. As Douglas Schoen and Carly Cooperman write at The Hill:
The recent decline in support for President Biden and his administration likely means that the Democratic Party will lose control of the House and potentially the Senate in 2022 — and makes it increasingly likely that Biden will be a one-term president … President Biden’s approval rating has markedly deteriorated, having dropped 16 points since this spring … What explains Biden’s precipitous decline? … In short, by catering to the left wing of the party, the Biden administration risks enhancing the likelihood of an outcome in the midterms similar to 1994 and 2010, when similar big government initiatives cost the Democrats control of Congress.
As this week’s budget battles have demonstrated, neither the President nor congressional Democrats are able to escape the clutches of the increasingly powerful left wing of their party. Consequently, they will attempt to change the way congressional elections are conducted in the states by passing the Freedom to Vote Act. Masquerading as champions of voting rights they will use this pernicious and unconstitutional legislation to fundamentally alter the democratic process in a way that favors their party for decades to come. And, make no mistake, that is what the Freedom to Vote Act does. It contains virtually all the defects that rendered the For the People Act a dead letter when it was delivered to the Senate.
The bill would, for example, create a federal right to a no-excuse mail-in ballot for every registered voter in the nation. This would increase the potential for fraud exponentially and invalidate election statutes in more than a dozen states. It would mandate automatic voter registration via state motor vehicle agencies, guaranteeing that non-citizens and other ineligible people will be able to vote. It would loosen voter ID requirements to the point at which they would be meaningless while rendering null and void any state law requiring a photo ID to vote. S.2747 also requires states to give felons the right to vote immediately upon release from prison, which would invalidate laws in over half the states.
It goes without saying, of course, that the Freedom to Vote Act also runs afoul of the Constitution. Among the most obvious is the provision that requires “super PACs, 501©(4) groups, and other organizations spending money in elections to disclose donors.” This mirrors a violation of the First Amendment that was also included in the For the People Act. Even the American Civil Liberties Union withheld its support from the latter because this provision obviously infringes upon political speech. The legislation also commandeers the broad authority to regulate all federal elections—congressional and presidential—an expansion of federal power that cannot be reconciled with the text of the Constitution.
None of these constitutional defects concern the Democrats. Their bluster notwithstanding, they know they’re fighting for their lives. Amidst such desperation, Sen. Manchin sounds like the voice of reason: “While I am hopeful that common ground can be found that would result in another historic investment in our nation, I cannot — and will not — support trillions in spending or an all or nothing approach that ignores the brutal fiscal reality our nation faces.” But the Mountain State mountebank is just keeping his powder dry. When his “voting rights” bill reaches the Senate floor, he will blow up the filibuster and jam the Freedom to Vote Act down our collective throats. We have all been here before of course.
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