This is a big week for the CAA with 5 FBS games. Hopefully 1 or 2 can pull the upset and give the conference a ratings boost.
So far, other conferences have taken advantage of early season games and produced 10 victories over FBS teams and we know the playoff committee values that when comparing conference relative strength.

JMU’s win over Weber state will help if the Wildcats can get their QB back and knock off their Big Sky foes. Fingers crossed.

After this week, the interconference matchups are over and the CAA won’t be able to move the needle in the power ratings.
As of now, the CAA is 4th.
JMU running the table may not be enough to get a top 2 seed and guaranteed home games thru the playoffs. It feels like we need other teams to lose.

Villanova at #6 Penn State. Huge game. Stuff the run, have a chance.
Richmond at Va Tech
New Hampshire at Pittsburgh
Towson at San Diego State
Maine at Northern Illinois

What's the payout Towson @ SDSU?

Edit: $450K

Source https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/spo...ort-towson

(09-22-2021 07:09 AM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  This is a big week for the CAA with 5 FBS games. Hopefully 1 or 2 can pull the upset and give the conference a ratings boost.
So far, other conferences have taken advantage of early season games and produced 10 victories over FBS teams and we know the playoff committee values that when comparing conference relative strength.

JMU’s win over Weber state will help if the Wildcats can get their QB back and knock off their Big Sky foes. Fingers crossed.

After this week, the interconference matchups are over and the CAA won’t be able to move the needle in the power ratings.
As of now, the CAA is 4th.
JMU running the table may not be enough to get a top 2 seed and guaranteed home games thru the playoffs. It feels like we need other teams to lose.

Villanova at #6 Penn State. Huge game. Stuff the run, have a chance.
Richmond at Va Tech
New Hampshire at Pittsburgh
Towson at San Diego State
Maine at Northern Illinois

if you throw out the distracted 2018 season, since 2016 we've lost to 2 FCS teams ever:

North Dakota State - twice, both games going to the last play
Sam Houston State - once in a lifetime fluke collapse

I think we'll be fine regardless of what anyone else does.

we should just take care of our own business.

PS - GURANTEED top 2 seed if we go undefeated with likely FIVE wins over ranked FCS opponents, 3 of those on the road.

(09-22-2021 07:09 AM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  After this week, the interconference matchups are over and the CAA won’t be able to move the needle in the power ratings.
As of now, the CAA is 4th.

Just curious, what is this based on? FBS or OOC wins? Computer metrics? Poll rankings?

I can see an argument for Big Sky as #1 overall based on FBS wins. However we have the head-to-head W against Weber who still has a chance to be champs in that conference.

I could also see an argument for MVFC as #2. I don’t know who would be #3 above the CAA.

I would note that one of the most important rankings for seeding (NCAA SRS) is not known at this time, but does favor schools with FBS wins with a bonus added to the calculation.

Think it’s way too early to say JMU either will or won’t get a top 2 seed. Montana probably has the strongest position right now if they win out. Our SoS should be top 4 territory, but may not trump everyone else. Big convincing wins against ranked teams like Weber certainly help.

(09-22-2021 07:21 AM)Bawlmer Duke Wrote:  What's the payout Towson @ SDSU?

Edit: $450K

Source https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/spo...ort-towson

https://infogram.com/college-football-no...rro2o?live

Villanova at #6 Penn State. Huge game. Stuff the run, have a chance. (?)
Richmond at Va Tech ($400k)
New Hampshire at Pittsburgh ($425k)
Towson at San Diego State ($450k)
Maine at Northern Illinois ($375k)

(09-22-2021 07:31 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 07:09 AM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  This is a big week for the CAA with 5 FBS games. Hopefully 1 or 2 can pull the upset and give the conference a ratings boost.
So far, other conferences have taken advantage of early season games and produced 10 victories over FBS teams and we know the playoff committee values that when comparing conference relative strength.

JMU’s win over Weber state will help if the Wildcats can get their QB back and knock off their Big Sky foes. Fingers crossed.

After this week, the interconference matchups are over and the CAA won’t be able to move the needle in the power ratings.
As of now, the CAA is 4th.
JMU running the table may not be enough to get a top 2 seed and guaranteed home games thru the playoffs. It feels like we need other teams to lose.

Villanova at #6 Penn State. Huge game. Stuff the run, have a chance.
Richmond at Va Tech
New Hampshire at Pittsburgh
Towson at San Diego State
Maine at Northern Illinois

if you throw out the distracted 2018 season, since 2016 we've lost to 2 FCS teams ever:

North Dakota State - twice, both games going to the last play
Sam Houston State - once in a lifetime fluke collapse

I think we'll be fine regardless of what anyone else does.

we should just take care of our own business.

PS - GURANTEED top 2 seed if we go undefeated with likely FIVE wins over ranked FCS opponents, 3 of those on the road.

yep

Wish I had the confidence in the playoff committee that you guys do, and I hope you're right, but I just don't trust them worth a damn to do the right thing.

If JMU, SHSU, and either Montana or SDSU go undefeated I wouldn't be surprised to see them go undefeated with FBS win and undefeated defending champion for the top two seeds. They shouldn't, but I'm not that confident that they wouldn't. Hopefully by the end of the season this is moot anyway though.

(09-22-2021 10:24 AM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  Wish I had the confidence in the playoff committee that you guys do, and I hope you're right, but I just don't trust them worth a damn to do the right thing.

If JMU, SHSU, and either Montana or SDSU go undefeated I wouldn't be surprised to see them go undefeated with FBS win and undefeated defending champion for the top two seeds. They shouldn't, but I'm not that confident that they wouldn't. Hopefully by the end of the season this is moot anyway though.

Undefeated Montana and an undefeated SDSU would be 1 and 2, deservedly so. Both play in a tougher conference and both have very solid FBS wins

(09-22-2021 10:55 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:24 AM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  Wish I had the confidence in the playoff committee that you guys do, and I hope you're right, but I just don't trust them worth a damn to do the right thing.

If JMU, SHSU, and either Montana or SDSU go undefeated I wouldn't be surprised to see them go undefeated with FBS win and undefeated defending champion for the top two seeds. They shouldn't, but I'm not that confident that they wouldn't. Hopefully by the end of the season this is moot anyway though.

Undefeated Montana and an undefeated SDSU would be 1 and 2, deservedly so. Both play in a tougher conference and both have very solid FBS wins

I think it might almost be a toss up what the committee does IF those 4 schools stay undefeated.

SHSU - Although “officially” last season doesn’t matter, I think being undefeated defending champs helps. Committee members will remember they beat us last time we played. They will also likely remain #1 in Stats media poll this season if they go undefeated, but their SRS/SoS would likely be the lowest of the 4 undefeated schools.

Montana - If they stay undefeated, will have both an impressive FBS win along with likely the highest SRS score, and be at least Co-champ of Big Sky. Would likely remain #4 in Stats media poll.

SDSU - FBS win will boost their SRS score and being MVFC champs carries weight. Currently #2, but it’s a virtual toss up with JMU on the media poll and there is a possibility of it flip-flopping. They have 5 more points overall, we have one more first place vote.

JMU - No FBS game likely means we would be behind Montana and SDSU in the SRS score if all 3 undefeated. Still, could have an impressive resume if Weber ends up as Big Sky CoChamp and we post large wins over Delaware and Nova. Margin of Victory matters.

I think there is a good chance Montana and/or SDSU stumble and drop a game against teams like Montana St and NDSU. But if they win out, it’s hard to know who grabs those two top seeds.

(09-22-2021 11:24 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:55 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:24 AM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  Wish I had the confidence in the playoff committee that you guys do, and I hope you're right, but I just don't trust them worth a damn to do the right thing.

If JMU, SHSU, and either Montana or SDSU go undefeated I wouldn't be surprised to see them go undefeated with FBS win and undefeated defending champion for the top two seeds. They shouldn't, but I'm not that confident that they wouldn't. Hopefully by the end of the season this is moot anyway though.

Undefeated Montana and an undefeated SDSU would be 1 and 2, deservedly so. Both play in a tougher conference and both have very solid FBS wins

I think it might almost be a toss up what the committee does IF those 4 schools stay undefeated.

SHSU - Although “officially” last season doesn’t matter, I think being undefeated defending champs helps. Committee members will remember they beat us last time we played. They will also likely remain #1 in Stats media poll this season if they go undefeated, but their SRS/SoS would likely be the lowest of the 4 undefeated schools.

Montana - If they stay undefeated, will have both an impressive FBS win along with likely the highest SRS score, and be at least Co-champ of Big Sky. Would likely remain #4 in Stats media poll.

SDSU - FBS win will boost their SRS score and being MVFC champs carries weight. Currently #2, but it’s a virtual toss up with JMU on the media poll and there is a possibility of it flip-flopping. They have 5 more points overall, we have one more first place vote.

JMU - No FBS game likely means we would be behind Montana and SDSU in the SRS score if all 3 undefeated. Still, could have an impressive resume if Weber ends up as Big Sky CoChamp and we post large wins over Delaware and Nova. Margin of Victory matters.

I think there is a good chance Montana and/or SDSU stumble and drop a game against teams like Montana St and NDSU. But if they win out, it’s hard to know who grabs those two top seeds.

Dont put too much weight on the stats/media pole. The year we won it SHSU was #1 and ended up as the 5 seed which is why Montana/SDSU have the strongest case for 1/2 if both are undefeated

There’s too much If, If, If, but, but, but going on right now.

SDSU and NDSU still have to play each other, plus contend with SIU, UND, UNI (only lost by 6 to Iowa St), and Missouri St (only lost by a TD to Ok State).

Montana still has @ EWU and the season ending Brawl of The Wild vs Montan St, which they haven’t won since 2015.

SHSU only has 10 games. But they also have to play the next 2 weeks @ UCA and @ SFA. SFA is 2-1, and only lost to Tx Tech by 6. SHSU also hosts JSU on 10/23, who knocked off FSU.

And who knows if one of the above if going to have a WTF loss to a non playoff team..

Speculating on seed order this early is a pointless exercise.

But it’s fun. All polls are pointless. Only the committee selections matter. When do the early committee rankings come out? That will give us an idea of how they are leaning this year.

We need to be rooting for Weber State hard. Without their QB they are hosting UC Davis Saturday who already beat FBS Tulsa. Big Big game for our power rankings.

I'll bet anybody $500 an undefeated JMU would get a top 2 seed this year.

There will be unexpected losses in the future for contenders.

Yeah I think all of JMU, SDSU, Montana, SHSU getting through unscathed seems unlikely. I think three of JMU, SDSU, NDSU, SHSU, Montana being undefeated isn't so unlikely and in that case I don't think top 2 is a lock but there's a good chance since one of those three will almost definitely be SHSU with their high school schedule. If JMU has to survive any scares, especially if it's against a mediocre opponent, then I won't be totally surprised if the committee jumps on that plus SHSU being the champs.

More on the subject of this week's games, hoping I can catch a lot of the Marshall at App game tonight, curious to see how much Marshall can hang and also see the attendance in a Thursday game when it's a solid matchup between two strong fan bases.

The teams we want to see drop one along the way don't have much potential to do so this week. Bye for Montana and NDSU, SDSU travels to Indiana State, and SHSU is at Central Arkansas.

(09-23-2021 02:01 PM)Dukester Wrote:  I'll bet anybody $500 an undefeated JMU would get a top 2 seed this year.

There will be unexpected losses in the future for contenders.

Yep.

Marshall v App St putting on a great show on ESPN tonight. 30-31 App leading with 4 minutes left. Seems like great atmosphere there for a Thursday night.

Did you notice how many empty seats there are tonight. The second deck on the visitor side is about 30% full and I am trying to be generous. Plenty of empty seats throughout. I am shocked. I expected a full house on a Thursday night on ESPN. Poor showing in terms of crowd support in my opinion.

(09-23-2021 10:14 PM)JMUNation Wrote:  Did you notice how many empty seats there are tonight. The second deck on the visitor side is about 30% full and I am trying to be generous. Plenty of empty seats throughout. I am shocked. I expected a full house on a Thursday night on ESPN. Poor showing in terms of crowd support in my opinion.

Attendance was 28,377. I’m sure many season ticket holders couldn’t get up the Mountain, but students packed the lower stands behind the team well over capacity, and they spilled over to fill the hill. I was there for Saturday’s ho-him game against fElon. See if you all can get 31,000 for that one. Might have to build the other half of your stadium.

(09-23-2021 10:14 PM)JMUNation Wrote:  Did you notice how many empty seats there are tonight. The second deck on the visitor side is about 30% full and I am trying to be generous. Plenty of empty seats throughout. I am shocked. I expected a full house on a Thursday night on ESPN. Poor showing in terms of crowd support in my opinion.

There were some empty seats on camera, but you can’t deny it was a great atmosphere. It looked like the endzone area was lit, like upper convo lit back when JMU had tailgating students (albeit some who acted the fool and threw crap at EMS)- it was great exposure for those schools and a great game. I wish it was JMU

I fell asleep during the third quarter but yeah the atmosphere seemed great and it was a great game. The first shot I saw of the stands didn't seem like that many empty seats, closer to halftime I saw a lot more and I wasn't sure whether they were showing the other side of the stadium or if it was just people beating the lines. Regardless, it was a weeknight but the atmosphere was great for a big matchup on ESPN. Definitely had me thinking "this is where JMU should be!"