So....

The Realignment board "P5 Discussion" section had a thread on viewership team by team - tracking Total viewers, all games; average viewers per rated game all games; Conference-Inventory viewers by home games; and average viewers per rated conference inventory game (home games).

Early this summer, I got wahoowa's methodology to match it for AAC teams, and now I have finally done the work (I had the conference viewership for all games, conference inventory, and intra-conference, but had never broken it down team by team.

Here's what I posted there...
Edited 22 Sep to more clearly break out Wahoowa's four categories

2017-2020 Total viewership,regular season and CCGs, no bowls included in order of total viewers
Team....Total Vwrs......Games....Avg Vwrs per rated game
1 Navy ....44418000....21........2115143
2 UCF .....42128000....34........1239059
3 MEM.....34090000....27........1262593
4 CIN......28973000....22........1316955
5 HOU.....23395000....24........974792
6 USF......22472000....20........1123600
7 TULS....13141000....21........625762
8 SMU.....10659000....17........627000
9 TULA......7547000....13........580538
10 TEM......7057000....14........504071
11 ECU......3680000....10........368000

Average Viewers per rated game regular season and CCGs, no bowls included
1 Navy 2115143
2 Cincinnati 1316955
3 Memphis 1262593
4 UCF 1239059
5 USF 1123600
6 Houston 974792
7 SMU 627000
8 Tulsa 625762
9 Tulane 580538
10 Temple 504071
11 ECU 368000

2017-2020 Conference viewership, home games only, and %age
Team....Total Vwrs..........%age of conf viewers
1 MEM.....19166000......21.43%
2 UCF......16395000......18.33%
3 HOU.....12853000......14.37%
4 USF......11236000...,..12.56%
5 CIN........7719000.......8.63%
6 TULS......4642000.......5.19%
7 TULA......4452000.......4.98%
8 SMU.......3486000.......3.90%
9 ECU........3184000......3.56%
10 TEM......2563000.......2.87%
11 Navy......1574000.......1.76%

2017-2020 Conference inv avg per rated game viewership, home games only
1 Memphis 1369000
2 UCF 1171071
3 USF 936333
4 Houston 856867
5 Navy 787000
6 Cincinnati 771900
7 Tulane 742000
8 Tulsa 580250
9 ECU 454857
10 SMU 435750
11 Temple 366142



As I worked through the data, I was wondering about using home games for the conference viewership. Say Cincinnati stays undefeated this year and the 23 October game at Navy gets ABC at noon, and does a good number -- Navy would get the credit for that in this setup, rather than Cincinnati which is obviously the draw. CCGs get credited to both participants instead of to no one.
I did an excursion using all conference games in which a team is involved. The denominator changes, but here is the ranking giving both teams credit for intraconference games:
2017-2020 conference viewers, all games involved
Team......Total conference viewers Viewers...age
1 UCF.....35678000.................20.48
2 MEM....34090000.................19.56
3 USF......21518000.................12.35
4 CIN......21332000.................12.24
5 HOU.....16634000...................9.54
6 TULS.....10472000..................6.01
7 SMU........8647000..................4.96
8 NAVY.......7733000..................4.43
9 TULA.......6268000..................3.59
10 TEM.......5477000..................3.14
11 ECU.......3680000..................2.11

CCGs come back in UCF and USF move up for benefitting from all the War and I4 games instead of just half (and a few other big games for UCF).
Navy moves up, not because their away conference games in those four years were blockbusters, but just getting more than only the two 2020 games counted.

Then I did another excursion -- the 2018 Notre Dame at Navy game wasn't conference inventory, but the 2022, 2024, 2026, 2028, and 2030 ND at Navy games will be.
With that datapoint, Navy moves up to 4.4% of the conference viewership, from 11th to 8th for either home games only or all conference games in which a team is involved

One key takeaway --

UT/OU leaving the BigTwelve walked out the door with about 60% of BigTwelve viewership.

Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF together are just over 40% of AAC conference inventory viewership. The AAC isn't losing a "Big Three" only three of the top four or five depending on what metric.

So, by the numbers, with ZERO replenishment (see the eight million expansion threads)...the floor for the average annual value of the AAC contract should be around $50 million per year aav.
Sorry Craig Thompson.

Other threads have shown that ESPN FPI and SP+ would still have the eight AAC left-behinds ahead of the mwc et al as the #6 conference. A little less comfortably ahead, but still somewhat comfortably ahead. There is more of a gap to the #5....more work to do there...but contract $ won't be a death sentence, and we should still get the lion's share of the non-contract-bowl conference distribution from the CFP. And then we should still be well positioned for the #6 in a 6+6

why wont anyone include the good Houston years in these tv comparisons lol

Those numbers show USF is actually doing pretty well. I see a lot of posts questioning our value to the conference but all those numbers show that now USF is one of the most viewed.

Great work Navy!
Can you give Colorado St and AF numbers too?

The few, the proud, the Pirate fans.

I thought our numbers would be a little higher.

We need to start winning a lot more and get those numbers up some.

(09-21-2021 09:49 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Great work Navy!
Can you give Colorado St and AF numbers too?

Yea Navy killed it.

I'll respond to several comments at once here, because it's all inter-related.

Pesik - you're darn right that Houston would look even better with 2015 and 2016 numbers included. Those Oklahoma and Louisville games -- counting as conference inventory, too!!! -- were great. Navy at Houston '15 on Black Friday did over 3 million viewers, too, as a de facto play in game to stay in contention for the NY6. However, I did this work to fit into wahoowa's existing rankings with '17-'20 data. I already had to do a lot of work on my rougher 2017 AAC numbers to get to this level...I think that my 2015-2016 work is limited to those over 3 million, over 2 million, over 1 million looks I started to quell the G4s back in '17 or so.

NQB - yeah, ECU only had 10 rated games total in that four year window - several "n.a." numbers on ESPNU and whatnot. Bad window for ECU, with poor performance leading to poor windows, which do poor numbers, which lead to more poor windows.

mtmedlin - In addition to Memphis being up there with/above the three that got picked, USF is the other example showing that the AAC didn't lose a "Big Three" but three of the top five. Rough seas at the moment, but at the front end of that time window the Bulls had good seasons and buzz. The biggest Black Friday War on I4 viewership was because you were both good and it mattered. That was the key driver that led me to do the data excursion outside wahoowa's framework -- I used a hypothetical of Navy getting credit for hosting a CFP buzz Cincy, but it was the UCF-USF games that got me thinking of how to credit both teams for a big game big draw.

And those three comments together highlight the real reason "P6" got any legs that it did. In the CFP era, the AAC was never like the mwc with one draw and maybe a couple upstarts, or the WMU flash in the pan year, or even like the BigTwelve with a Big One for CFP appearances and a Big Two for brand and draw (who have BOTH now left). Four different teams made our five NY6 appearances, and the Big Twelve didn't take all of them. And in terms of separation from the G4, it wasn't just the top of the conference, it was the strength in the middle and the bottom. The worst AAC team is generally still looking down at multiple teams from each of the G4 conferences. Even when the SunBelt top three had an extreme outlier good year in 2020, the bottom of the SBC was turrible. FPI and SP+ multi-year averages still show the AAC left-behinds a somewhat comfortable #6 BEFORE any reloading. Reports of the AAC demise are grossly overstated.

billybobby - I MIGHT have CSU and AF for those four years. As I said, I had to do some work to clean up and break down what I had for the AAC for 2017. When I compared the BigTwelveRemnant8 to the AAC (before poaching) I stopped at 2018 because I hadn't broken down the BigTwelve for 2017 (I'm far more confident in all 10 FBS conferences '18-'20.) I have an mwc tab in my 2017 spreadsheet, but it's sloppy. And I'm taking a little break from spreadsheets after this task.

Good work, good info!

Very interesting. +3

ECU has put up strong numbers when not in the dumpster. The AAC will be okay.

(09-22-2021 06:24 AM)Chappy Wrote:  Very interesting. +3

ECU has put up strong numbers when not in the dumpster. The AAC will be okay.

Indeed. Knew we'd be low just because of the records.

Looking through and adjusting for wins back of the napkin to see who brings eyeballs in both good and bad seasons. Sort of a "viewers per win" kind of metric. Would think the highest viewers per win would be the most valuable. Although adjusting for the favorable timeslots that come with those wins would get complicated.

Navy obviously stands out because of their OOC scheduling clout. They flip from first to worst when you carve out OOC. Their total being first with their records being above average but not best says a lot. I'd think their viewers per win are near the top.

To mtm's point, USF deserves some credit, as they'd had a run of bad seasons and are still a very good draw.

SMU would be at the other end of the spectrum. Only only season below .500 but sitting in the bottom half over those years.

Cincinnati also in that boat, but to a much lesser extent. Plus, they had a pretty bad season in the first year of the analysis.

Thanks slh for putting these together. MVP of our board imo.

Thanks for the info.

Lord that UC number includes 2017? Fickle’s 1st year coming of the debacle of the Tubberville regime we was nearly impossible to watch.

(09-22-2021 07:38 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Lord that UC number includes 2017? Fickle’s 1st year coming of the debacle of the Tubberville regime we was nearly impossible to watch.

Probably still better than watching USF football in 2019 and 2020 LOL.

It has been rough for Bulls fans after Taggart got us rolling to see it cave back in.

(09-22-2021 06:24 AM)Chappy Wrote:  Very interesting. +3

ECU has put up strong numbers when not in the dumpster. The AAC will be okay.

Not playing meaningful games towards the end of the season probably doesn’t help these numbers. ESP when you’re on ESPN+ every week. So you’ve got to take these numbers with some context.

The good (winning) teams are featured on ESPN and espn2 more which have way more eyes on them versus ESPNU and plus—

Those numbers make a strong case for Memphis. SicEm 365 posted a strong YouTube this morning related to this ....

https://youtu.be/6ScqABX2e8w

Those numbers make a strong case for Memphis. SicEm 365 posted a strong YouTube this morning related to this ....

https://youtu.be/6ScqABX2e8w

Memphis is getting into the B12. That’s happening. Just wait till TX and OK leave for the 23 season.

(09-22-2021 06:40 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 06:24 AM)Chappy Wrote:  Very interesting. +3

ECU has put up strong numbers when not in the dumpster. The AAC will be okay.

Indeed. Knew we'd be low just because of the records.

Looking through and adjusting for wins back of the napkin to see who brings eyeballs in both good and bad seasons. Sort of a "viewers per win" kind of metric. Would think the highest viewers per win would be the most valuable. Although adjusting for the favorable timeslots that come with those wins would get complicated.

Navy obviously stands out because of their OOC scheduling clout. They flip from first to worst when you carve out OOC. Their total being first with their records being above average but not best says a lot. I'd think their viewers per win are near the top.

To mtm's point, USF deserves some credit, as they'd had a run of bad seasons and are still a very good draw.

SMU would be at the other end of the spectrum. Only only season below .500 but sitting in the bottom half over those years.

Cincinnati also in that boat, but to a much lesser extent. Plus, they had a pretty bad season in the first year of the analysis.

Thanks slh for putting these together. MVP of our board imo.

What I get from this is that Navy could raise their profile by going independent again.

I actually like the "4 Million Viewer Club" concept that The Athletic wrote about last month - it really gets to the heart of who is actually drawing a critical mass of viewers consistently and you're getting an apples-to-apples comparison on which networks are showing those games. I don't love just grouping all rated games because that puts ABC/ESPN (or Fox/CBS/NBC OTA) into the same pool as ESPN2/ESPNU/FS1/CBSSN games that inherently will draw fewer viewers. If you're just going by total viewers (regardless of contractual conference TV packages), Navy will always get a large skew on that figure because of its games with Army and Notre Dame.

Maybe a "1.5 Million Viewer Club" is a more instructive concept for evaluating G5 schools. That's about a 1.0 rating, which is "decent P5 game" territory. Once you get below that level, you're basically getting into ratings numbers that aren't going to move a TV contract at all.