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Where is realignment heading?
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OrangeDude Offline
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Post: #1
Where is realignment heading?
After over a 2 year hiatus, I am back for now. For those wondering why I left it had to do with the passing of my partner/husband from pancreatic cancer. I have kept reading this board and the syracusefan board but decided not to post. Syracuse crapping the bed in football the past three years sort of made it easier to avoid posting as well.

Anyway back to the main topic of this post. Where is realignment heading? I will begin by tipping my hat to JR whose past posts have now shown he has had the most insight as to where it's going, imho. Ultimately he put forth the notion that there would be 40 to 48 teams with either two leagues or perhaps one super league.

As a Syracuse fan it gives me no pleasure to say this, but my Orange will likely not make the cut. Using the lower end of 40 to 48 teams, I suspect the two league model will likely result in Clemson, FSU, UNC, and UVA to the SEC to get to 20 and USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington (and 2 of Notre Dame, Kansas, Stanford and Arizona) to get the Big 10 to 20. Notre Dame's independence will need to end once the new model is implemented if they wish to compete at the sports highest levels. This new model will also likely result (as JR and others have been saying for a while) in a separation from the NCAA for at the very least major college football - I am uncertain if it will apply to basketball at all.

The remaining ACC and remaining PAC/Big 12 (combined) will likely re-invent themselves along 12 or 16 team models whose games will comprise the next level down college football.

Those are my thoughts. Hope I am proven wrong.

Cheers,
Neil
09-20-2021 01:28 PM
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cuseroc Online
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Post: #2
RE: Where is realignment heading?
(09-20-2021 01:28 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  After over a 2 year hiatus, I am back for now. For those wondering why I left it had to do with the passing of my partner/husband from pancreatic cancer. I have kept reading this board and the syracusefan board but decided not to post. Syracuse crapping the bed in football the past three years sort of made it easier to avoid posting as well.

Anyway back to the main topic of this post. Where is realignment heading? I will begin by tipping my hat to JR whose past posts have now shown he has had the most insight as to where it's going, imho. Ultimately he put forth the notion that there would be 40 to 48 teams with either two leagues or perhaps one super league.

As a Syracuse fan it gives me no pleasure to say this, but my Orange will likely not make the cut. Using the lower end of 40 to 48 teams, I suspect the two league model will likely result in Clemson, FSU, UNC, and UVA to the SEC to get to 20 and USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington (and 2 of Notre Dame, Kansas, Stanford and Arizona) to get the Big 10 to 20. Notre Dame's independence will need to end once the new model is implemented if they wish to compete at the sports highest levels. This new model will also likely result (as JR and others have been saying for a while) in a separation from the NCAA for at the very least major college football - I am uncertain if it will apply to basketball at all.

The remaining ACC and remaining PAC/Big 12 (combined) will likely re-invent themselves along 12 or 16 team models whose games will comprise the next level down college football.

Those are my thoughts. Hope I am proven wrong.

Cheers,
Neil

Neil,

Welcome back dude! Glad to hear from you. Several posters have been asking about you. I understand what its like to lose a loved one. Sorry for your loss. But glad to have you back.
(This post was last modified: 09-20-2021 01:38 PM by cuseroc.)
09-20-2021 01:33 PM
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OrangeDude Offline
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RE: Where is realignment heading?
(09-20-2021 01:33 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  
(09-20-2021 01:28 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  After over a 2 year hiatus, I am back for now. For those wondering why I left it had to do with the passing of my partner/husband from pancreatic cancer. I have kept reading this board and the syracusefan board but decided not to post. Syracuse crapping the bed in football the past three years sort of made it easier to avoid posting as well.

Anyway back to the main topic of this post. Where is realignment heading? I will begin by tipping my hat to JR whose past posts have now shown he has had the most insight as to where it's going, imho. Ultimately he put forth the notion that there would be 40 to 48 teams with either two leagues or perhaps one super league.

As a Syracuse fan it gives me no pleasure to say this, but my Orange will likely not make the cut. Using the lower end of 40 to 48 teams, I suspect the two league model will likely result in Clemson, FSU, UNC, and UVA to the SEC to get to 20 and USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington (and 2 of Notre Dame, Kansas, Stanford and Arizona) to get the Big 10 to 20. Notre Dame's independence will need to end once the new model is implemented if they wish to compete at the sports highest levels. This new model will also likely result (as JR and others have been saying for a while) in a separation from the NCAA for at the very least major college football - I am uncertain if it will apply to basketball at all.

The remaining ACC and remaining PAC/Big 12 (combined) will likely re-invent themselves along 12 or 16 team models whose games will comprise the next level down college football.

Those are my thoughts. Hope I am proven wrong.

Cheers,
Neil

Neil,

Welcome back dude! Glad to hear from you. Several posters have been asking about you. I understand what its like to lose a loved one. Sorry for your loss. But glad to have you back.

Thanks cuseroc
09-20-2021 01:42 PM
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CardinalJim Offline
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RE: Where is realignment heading?
Neil,
Sorry to read of your loss. It’s good to have you back.
I don’t think your Orange be alone. I doubt many in The ACC make the cut.
Like you I know Louisville won’t and I’m fine with that.
09-20-2021 01:46 PM
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OrangeDude Offline
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RE: Where is realignment heading?
(09-20-2021 01:46 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Neil,
Sorry to read of your loss. It’s good to have you back.
I don’t think your Orange be alone. I doubt many in The ACC make the cut.
Like you I know Louisville won’t and I’m fine with that.

Thanks. Glad to be back, despite my Orange playing so badly. Eternal hope we will somehow turn it around.

If I am correct, my gut says the new model of an Eastern Conference (probably named the ACC but not necessarily) would contain no more than 2 teams from the same state and likely be comprised of Miami, UCF, GT, NC State, Duke or Wake (if only 12 or both if 14 or 16), VT, L'Ville, Cincy, WVU, Pitt, SU, and BC. If 14 or 16 whoever the last 1 or 3 might be is anyone's guess.

Just my thoughts on it.

Cheers
Neil
09-20-2021 02:11 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Where is realignment heading?
(09-20-2021 01:28 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  After over a 2 year hiatus, I am back for now. For those wondering why I left it had to do with the passing of my partner/husband from pancreatic cancer. I have kept reading this board and the syracusefan board but decided not to post. Syracuse crapping the bed in football the past three years sort of made it easier to avoid posting as well.

Anyway back to the main topic of this post. Where is realignment heading? I will begin by tipping my hat to JR whose past posts have now shown he has had the most insight as to where it's going, imho. Ultimately he put forth the notion that there would be 40 to 48 teams with either two leagues or perhaps one super league.

As a Syracuse fan it gives me no pleasure to say this, but my Orange will likely not make the cut. Using the lower end of 40 to 48 teams, I suspect the two league model will likely result in Clemson, FSU, UNC, and UVA to the SEC to get to 20 and USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington (and 2 of Notre Dame, Kansas, Stanford and Arizona) to get the Big 10 to 20. Notre Dame's independence will need to end once the new model is implemented if they wish to compete at the sports highest levels. This new model will also likely result (as JR and others have been saying for a while) in a separation from the NCAA for at the very least major college football - I am uncertain if it will apply to basketball at all.

The remaining ACC and remaining PAC/Big 12 (combined) will likely re-invent themselves along 12 or 16 team models whose games will comprise the next level down college football.

Those are my thoughts. Hope I am proven wrong.

Cheers,
Neil

Neil,
I'm glad to see you are back and OK. I too, would like to extend my condolences for your loss.
The more that things have changed, the more they stayed the same, you should have no problem jumping back into the fray.
I welcome the return of your knowledge and insight.
09-20-2021 02:25 PM
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TexanMark Offline
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RE: Where is realignment heading?
Neil

Glad you are back...always love your insights

Hopefully you will start posting again at syracusefan.com
09-20-2021 02:47 PM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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RE: Where is realignment heading?
Welcome back, Neil.
09-20-2021 02:51 PM
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TerryD Offline
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RE: Where is realignment heading?
Neil:

My condolences on your loss as well. I am glad to see that you are back.
09-20-2021 04:22 PM
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Statefan Offline
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RE: Where is realignment heading?
Hello Neil, I am sorry for your loss.
(This post was last modified: 09-20-2021 05:08 PM by Statefan.)
09-20-2021 05:06 PM
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SoCalPanther Offline
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RE: Where is realignment heading?
Neil, So sorry for your loss
09-20-2021 09:11 PM
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Post: #12
RE: Where is realignment heading?
(09-20-2021 01:28 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  After over a 2 year hiatus, I am back for now. For those wondering why I left it had to do with the passing of my partner/husband from pancreatic cancer. I have kept reading this board and the syracusefan board but decided not to post. Syracuse crapping the bed in football the past three years sort of made it easier to avoid posting as well.

Anyway back to the main topic of this post. Where is realignment heading? I will begin by tipping my hat to JR whose past posts have now shown he has had the most insight as to where it's going, imho. Ultimately he put forth the notion that there would be 40 to 48 teams with either two leagues or perhaps one super league.

As a Syracuse fan it gives me no pleasure to say this, but my Orange will likely not make the cut. Using the lower end of 40 to 48 teams, I suspect the two league model will likely result in Clemson, FSU, UNC, and UVA to the SEC to get to 20 and USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington (and 2 of Notre Dame, Kansas, Stanford and Arizona) to get the Big 10 to 20. Notre Dame's independence will need to end once the new model is implemented if they wish to compete at the sports highest levels. This new model will also likely result (as JR and others have been saying for a while) in a separation from the NCAA for at the very least major college football - I am uncertain if it will apply to basketball at all.

The remaining ACC and remaining PAC/Big 12 (combined) will likely re-invent themselves along 12 or 16 team models whose games will comprise the next level down college football.

Those are my thoughts. Hope I am proven wrong.

Cheers,
Neil

Sorry for your loss. My mother just died after having dementia for 6 years. It's a life changing event.

JRSEC has been the most prescient with his predictions but I think we're looking at 3 leagues of 20 not 2 of 20 or 24.

Specifically, the B1G goes the academic route with Kansas, UVA, UNC, Duke, GT and maybe Miami. Miami's not really a B1G type school but they do want to get into Florida.

The SEC adds FSU, Clemson, NCST and VT and breaks down into nice 5-team divisions.
Fla, FSU, UGA, Clemson, USC
NCST, VT, Ken, Tenn, Vandy
Ala, Aub, Miss, Miss St, LSU
Tex, A&M, OKL, Ark, Mizzou

The Pac 12 adds 8 to get to 20 all from the Big 12/14/16 whatever it's called then.

But none of that happens until the ACC GoR expires. So 2037 at the earliest.

The remaining schools will still have to deal with NIL, P4P, unlimited stipends, etc. but their athletes will still be students. The break away league will be full P4P with athletes as employees and not students.

Will the break away league keep the NCAA for all other sports? Probably. There's no need to re-invent the wheel when there's already an organization to take care of all that stuff.

Does the Break away league take the NCAA basketball tournament with them or allow the NCAA to continue to fund operations with a large share of the proceeds from the tournament? Clearly the B1G would be interested after picking up 3 blue bloods and UVA but I think they get out voted. A main attraction of the NCAA tournament is the upsets and Cinderella teams. You need all the small conferences to get max value out of the NCAA tournament. A tournament with 10 conferences wouldn't be the same.
(This post was last modified: 09-21-2021 07:16 AM by ChrisLords.)
09-21-2021 07:14 AM
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ken d Offline
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RE: Where is realignment heading?
If the upcoming Constitutional Convention of the NCAA results in a separation of football from NCAA purview, a lot of changes will be possible that aren't in 2021. Personally, I think there is a pretty good chance of that happening. And if it does happen, we would have to look closely at GoR contracts which could be invalidated as a by-product depending on how they are written.

Whatever happens, I believe the B1G and the SEC will survive and separate from the rest of what is now the FBS. No current members of those conferences will be left behind involuntarily. Both, I think, will expand to 24 members in four 6-team divisions. This is how I see it shaking out.

SEC West
Texhoma division: Oklahoma, OK State, Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas and TCU
Gulfcoast division: Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Mississippi St, Ole Miss and Arkansas

SEC East:
SEC division: Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky and Vanderbilt
ACC division: Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech and NC State

**************************************************************

B1G West:
Pacific division: Oregon, Stanford, Washington, USC, UCLA and California
Prairie division: Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, Minnesota and Illinois

B1G East:
Atlantic division: Notre Dame, Penn State, North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia and Maryland
Great Lakes division: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St, Indiana, Purdue and Rutgers

***************************************************************

Each conference could have an 8 team playoff including the first and second place finishers in each division with the winners facing off in what would be billed by the media as a national championship game.

Clearly, these aren't the 48 best football programs. Some very good teams would be left behind in a second tier league. But to have big winners, you must have some losers in your conference. This lineup has that.

What isn't clear is how the P5 teams left behind organize for other sports. I don't anticipate a breakaway by the B1G and SEC for those sports, including basketball. I believe the collective presidents of the two leagues will want to avoid appearing to kill the NCAA and the hundreds of schools that rely on the NCAAT to fund their championships at every level. Altruism won't drive that. They'll still get the lion's share of the NCAAT loot. It will be all about image and the need to have an ample supply of losers to pad their OOC records in exchange for cash.
09-21-2021 10:06 AM
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domer1978 Offline
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RE: Where is realignment heading?
(09-21-2021 10:06 AM)ken d Wrote:  If the upcoming Constitutional Convention of the NCAA results in a separation of football from NCAA purview, a lot of changes will be possible that aren't in 2021. Personally, I think there is a pretty good chance of that happening. And if it does happen, we would have to look closely at GoR contracts which could be invalidated as a by-product depending on how they are written.

Whatever happens, I believe the B1G and the SEC will survive and separate from the rest of what is now the FBS. No current members of those conferences will be left behind involuntarily. Both, I think, will expand to 24 members in four 6-team divisions. This is how I see it shaking out.

SEC West
Texhoma division: Oklahoma, OK State, Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas and TCU
Gulfcoast division: Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Mississippi St, Ole Miss and Arkansas

SEC East:
SEC division: Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky and Vanderbilt
ACC division: Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech and NC State

**************************************************************

B1G West:
Pacific division: Oregon, Stanford, Washington, USC, UCLA and California
Prairie division: Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, Minnesota and Illinois

B1G East:
Atlantic division: Notre Dame, Penn State, North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia and Maryland
Great Lakes division: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St, Indiana, Purdue and Rutgers

***************************************************************

Each conference could have an 8 team playoff including the first and second place finishers in each division with the winners facing off in what would be billed by the media as a national championship game.

Clearly, these aren't the 48 best football programs. Some very good teams would be left behind in a second tier league. But to have big winners, you must have some losers in your conference. This lineup has that.

What isn't clear is how the P5 teams left behind organize for other sports. I don't anticipate a breakaway by the B1G and SEC for those sports, including basketball. I believe the collective presidents of the two leagues will want to avoid appearing to kill the NCAA and the hundreds of schools that rely on the NCAAT to fund their championships at every level. Altruism won't drive that. They'll still get the lion's share of the NCAAT loot. It will be all about image and the need to have an ample supply of losers to pad their OOC records in exchange for cash.

University presidents have shown that they are not exactly quick moving. I assume this will drag out a couple more years.
09-21-2021 11:01 AM
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Win5002 Offline
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RE: Where is realignment heading?
(09-21-2021 10:06 AM)ken d Wrote:  If the upcoming Constitutional Convention of the NCAA results in a separation of football from NCAA purview, a lot of changes will be possible that aren't in 2021. Personally, I think there is a pretty good chance of that happening. And if it does happen, we would have to look closely at GoR contracts which could be invalidated as a by-product depending on how they are written.

Whatever happens, I believe the B1G and the SEC will survive and separate from the rest of what is now the FBS. No current members of those conferences will be left behind involuntarily. Both, I think, will expand to 24 members in four 6-team divisions. This is how I see it shaking out.

SEC West
Texhoma division: Oklahoma, OK State, Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas and TCU
Gulfcoast division: Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Mississippi St, Ole Miss and Arkansas

SEC East:
SEC division: Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky and Vanderbilt
ACC division: Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech and NC State

**************************************************************

B1G West:
Pacific division: Oregon, Stanford, Washington, USC, UCLA and California
Prairie division: Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, Minnesota and Illinois

B1G East:
Atlantic division: Notre Dame, Penn State, North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia and Maryland
Great Lakes division: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St, Indiana, Purdue and Rutgers

***************************************************************

Each conference could have an 8 team playoff including the first and second place finishers in each division with the winners facing off in what would be billed by the media as a national championship game.

Clearly, these aren't the 48 best football programs. Some very good teams would be left behind in a second tier league. But to have big winners, you must have some losers in your conference. This lineup has that.

What isn't clear is how the P5 teams left behind organize for other sports. I don't anticipate a breakaway by the B1G and SEC for those sports, including basketball. I believe the collective presidents of the two leagues will want to avoid appearing to kill the NCAA and the hundreds of schools that rely on the NCAAT to fund their championships at every level. Altruism won't drive that. They'll still get the lion's share of the NCAAT loot. It will be all about image and the need to have an ample supply of losers to pad their OOC records in exchange for cash.

They would be better off to still have two leagues from the ACC/B12/PAC ranging from 16-20 teams still associated with them where the other two leagues make around 40M a year to have those fan bases feel like they are still part of college football. Otherwise if your a fan of teams not in those two leagues there is no reason to watch the sport. Its not like a P48 is any where near as good as NFL football. Nobody watches AAA baseball.

Even if each league had its own playoffs and the 4 advanced, the two P24 wouldn't mind it because they know they would have an advantage in the semi-finals and just need to beat the other league in the finals. That still allows the B1G & SEC to be greedy and monetize all of their league playoff money and not be required to share it. The other two leagues would have their respective conference playoff.

While I think its horrible for the sport and many of these teams might not like having additional losses. The one benefit would be we could completely replace useless bowl games with conference playoffs and that would be must see!
09-21-2021 11:07 AM
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ken d Offline
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RE: Where is realignment heading?
(09-21-2021 11:07 AM)Win5002 Wrote:  
(09-21-2021 10:06 AM)ken d Wrote:  If the upcoming Constitutional Convention of the NCAA results in a separation of football from NCAA purview, a lot of changes will be possible that aren't in 2021. Personally, I think there is a pretty good chance of that happening. And if it does happen, we would have to look closely at GoR contracts which could be invalidated as a by-product depending on how they are written.

Whatever happens, I believe the B1G and the SEC will survive and separate from the rest of what is now the FBS. No current members of those conferences will be left behind involuntarily. Both, I think, will expand to 24 members in four 6-team divisions. This is how I see it shaking out.

SEC West
Texhoma division: Oklahoma, OK State, Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas and TCU
Gulfcoast division: Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Mississippi St, Ole Miss and Arkansas

SEC East:
SEC division: Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky and Vanderbilt
ACC division: Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech and NC State

**************************************************************

B1G West:
Pacific division: Oregon, Stanford, Washington, USC, UCLA and California
Prairie division: Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, Minnesota and Illinois

B1G East:
Atlantic division: Notre Dame, Penn State, North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia and Maryland
Great Lakes division: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St, Indiana, Purdue and Rutgers

***************************************************************

Each conference could have an 8 team playoff including the first and second place finishers in each division with the winners facing off in what would be billed by the media as a national championship game.

Clearly, these aren't the 48 best football programs. Some very good teams would be left behind in a second tier league. But to have big winners, you must have some losers in your conference. This lineup has that.

What isn't clear is how the P5 teams left behind organize for other sports. I don't anticipate a breakaway by the B1G and SEC for those sports, including basketball. I believe the collective presidents of the two leagues will want to avoid appearing to kill the NCAA and the hundreds of schools that rely on the NCAAT to fund their championships at every level. Altruism won't drive that. They'll still get the lion's share of the NCAAT loot. It will be all about image and the need to have an ample supply of losers to pad their OOC records in exchange for cash.

They would be better off to still have two leagues from the ACC/B12/PAC ranging from 16-20 teams still associated with them where the other two leagues make around 40M a year to have those fan bases feel like they are still part of college football. Otherwise if your a fan of teams not in those two leagues there is no reason to watch the sport. Its not like a P48 is any where near as good as NFL football. Nobody watches AAA baseball.

Even if each league had its own playoffs and the 4 advanced, the two P24 wouldn't mind it because they know they would have an advantage in the semi-finals and just need to beat the other league in the finals. That still allows the B1G & SEC to be greedy and monetize all of their league playoff money and not be required to share it. The other two leagues would have their respective conference playoff.

While I think its horrible for the sport and many of these teams might not like having additional losses. The one benefit would be we could completely replace useless bowl games with conference playoffs and that would be must see!

I suspect there will be more separating these two leagues from the rest of the upper tier than just historic association with their conference mates. I think these two will have much more lenient rules about budgets, scholarships, # of coaches, player compensation, etc. They will still want to play some games against the second level, including all the P5 schools left behind and many of the G5 schools. But it won't be anything close to the level playing field that at least nominally applies today. The other FBS schools will be akin to the FCS schools in D-I to the Big Dogs.
09-21-2021 11:37 AM
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random asian guy Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Where is realignment heading?
(09-20-2021 01:28 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  After over a 2 year hiatus, I am back for now. For those wondering why I left it had to do with the passing of my partner/husband from pancreatic cancer. I have kept reading this board and the syracusefan board but decided not to post. Syracuse crapping the bed in football the past three years sort of made it easier to avoid posting as well.

Anyway back to the main topic of this post. Where is realignment heading? I will begin by tipping my hat to JR whose past posts have now shown he has had the most insight as to where it's going, imho. Ultimately he put forth the notion that there would be 40 to 48 teams with either two leagues or perhaps one super league.

As a Syracuse fan it gives me no pleasure to say this, but my Orange will likely not make the cut. Using the lower end of 40 to 48 teams, I suspect the two league model will likely result in Clemson, FSU, UNC, and UVA to the SEC to get to 20 and USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington (and 2 of Notre Dame, Kansas, Stanford and Arizona) to get the Big 10 to 20. Notre Dame's independence will need to end once the new model is implemented if they wish to compete at the sports highest levels. This new model will also likely result (as JR and others have been saying for a while) in a separation from the NCAA for at the very least major college football - I am uncertain if it will apply to basketball at all.

The remaining ACC and remaining PAC/Big 12 (combined) will likely re-invent themselves along 12 or 16 team models whose games will comprise the next level down college football.

Those are my thoughts. Hope I am proven wrong.

Cheers,
Neil

I had read a lot of OmniOrange’s (and LumberPack’s) old postings to learn about the conference realignment. They were very helpful, so thank you.

With respect to your question, personally I think the P4 conferences almost reached to the equilibrium state, where no further movement between P4 would happen.

Some possible changes I can think of:

* The P4 may break away from the NCAA.
* The Pac-12 may try to bulk up by adding two or more teams from the Big 12 down the road.
* ND and the ACC further strengthens the partnership: 6th game, participation of the ACC CG, or pooling the media money.
09-21-2021 12:07 PM
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Post: #18
RE: Where is realignment heading?
(09-20-2021 01:28 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  After over a 2 year hiatus, I am back for now. For those wondering why I left it had to do with the passing of my partner/husband from pancreatic cancer. I have kept reading this board and the syracusefan board but decided not to post. Syracuse crapping the bed in football the past three years sort of made it easier to avoid posting as well.

Anyway back to the main topic of this post. Where is realignment heading? I will begin by tipping my hat to JR whose past posts have now shown he has had the most insight as to where it's going, imho. Ultimately he put forth the notion that there would be 40 to 48 teams with either two leagues or perhaps one super league.

As a Syracuse fan it gives me no pleasure to say this, but my Orange will likely not make the cut. Using the lower end of 40 to 48 teams, I suspect the two league model will likely result in Clemson, FSU, UNC, and UVA to the SEC to get to 20 and USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington (and 2 of Notre Dame, Kansas, Stanford and Arizona) to get the Big 10 to 20. Notre Dame's independence will need to end once the new model is implemented if they wish to compete at the sports highest levels. This new model will also likely result (as JR and others have been saying for a while) in a separation from the NCAA for at the very least major college football - I am uncertain if it will apply to basketball at all.

The remaining ACC and remaining PAC/Big 12 (combined) will likely re-invent themselves along 12 or 16 team models whose games will comprise the next level down college football.

Those are my thoughts. Hope I am proven wrong.

Cheers,
Neil

Does ND want to give up independence and "compete at the sport's highest levels" if the players become university employees and are directly paid by them?

That is the question, isn't it?

Both Jack Swarbrick and Father John Jenkins have issued public statements saying that if the players become employees, then ND will opt out of that system.

Did they mean it? Were they lying? Was it just PR to try to influence the Alston court?

I guess we are all going to find out.
(This post was last modified: 09-21-2021 03:01 PM by TerryD.)
09-21-2021 03:00 PM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Where is realignment heading?
Neil,
My condolences on your loss.

With regards to next steps in realignment, a lot depends on how athletes share the fruits of revenue-generating collegiate sports, as well as the role of the NCAA. IMO, the NCAA does a good job overseeing D2 & D3 sports; it’s also competent enough for non-revenue D1 sports. The NCAA is a disaster in handling big-time football and basketball (and possibly any other sport that grows in fan popularity). The NCAA could reform itself with a higher premier division (above D1 for a subset of universities that are willing to significantly increase player compensation) or it could abandon oversight of revenue generating sports. I believe that the Alliance is angling for the former, while the SEC/UT-Austin/ESPN are hedging their bets in case the latter is needed.

There’s a good chance that no major realignment occurs in the next six to ten years. Giving major universities and conferences plenty of time to understand how to best ensure that athletes properly share in the financial windfall. The CFP expansion and role of the NCAA in managing the men’s basketball tournament will be the vehicles for understanding who has power in designing the future of college athletics.

I don’t believe that the current ACC is necessarily doomed; nor that major brands are eventually bound to leave for the SEC and/or B1G. The SEC and B1G are much better positioned for the future, but the ACC is still very attractive to its members.
09-21-2021 03:13 PM
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CardinalJim Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Where is realignment heading?
(09-20-2021 02:11 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  
(09-20-2021 01:46 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Neil,
Sorry to read of your loss. It’s good to have you back.
I don’t think your Orange be alone. I doubt many in The ACC make the cut.
Like you I know Louisville won’t and I’m fine with that.

Thanks. Glad to be back, despite my Orange playing so badly. Eternal hope we will somehow turn it around.

If I am correct, my gut says the new model of an Eastern Conference (probably named the ACC but not necessarily) would contain no more than 2 teams from the same state and likely be comprised of Miami, UCF, GT, NC State, Duke or Wake (if only 12 or both if 14 or 16), VT, L'Ville, Cincy, WVU, Pitt, SU, and BC. If 14 or 16 whoever the last 1 or 3 might be is anyone's guess.

Just my thoughts on it.

Cheers
Neil

Where do we sign up? We can do this today…

I would sign up for that right now except I would dump one of the Carolina schools and add Memphis.
09-21-2021 03:15 PM
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