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Everybody's working for 2022
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Everybody's working for 2022
https://www.si.com/college/tmg/mark-blau...-expansion

"""...Right now it's in the hands of the lawyers,'' said one source familiar with the talks being held in the conference offices. "It's all about settling on a price to let schools leave early.''

Right now Oklahoma, Texas, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston are lame duck members of their conferences.

No one on either side thinks that is a good situation for even one year, much less two or three years.
I"ve seen it before in the Big East (Boston College in 2004 before going to the ACC the following year,'' said one former conference administrator, ""and it was horrible.''

The solution seems obvious.

Negotiate a price for each school to leave after this season, write the check and

Carry On.

We're talking a lot of money--in the 80 million dollar range for Oklahoma and Texas and perhaps as much as $30 million each for UCF, Houston and Cincinnati.

But those are starting points in the talk, open to negotiations. There are ways to design compromises, spreading out the payments over several years or having schools borrow money from their new conferences against the projected increased income those schools are projected to make...."
09-13-2021 08:34 PM
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Stay Cool Offline
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Everybody's working for 2022
And here I was working for the weekend like a chump

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09-13-2021 08:34 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
Blaudschun obviously wrote this as a favor for his source in the AAC: "perhaps as much as $30 million each for UCF, Houston and Cincinnati"

UConn and the AAC agreed on July 26, 2019 that UConn could leave less than a year later, on July 1, 2020, for an exit fee of $17 million. https://www.ctpost.com/uconn/article/UCo...178493.php
09-13-2021 08:48 PM
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b2b Offline
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-13-2021 08:48 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Blaudschun obviously wrote this as a favor for his source in the AAC: "perhaps as much as $30 million each for UCF, Houston and Cincinnati"

UConn and the AAC agreed on July 26, 2019 that UConn could leave less than a year later, on July 1, 2020, for an exit fee of $17 million. https://www.ctpost.com/uconn/article/UCo...178493.php
Yeah and that was UConn football leaving not 3 programs who have all won BCS/CFP bowls. 80% of the value is in football.

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09-13-2021 08:52 PM
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BigEastMike Offline
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-13-2021 08:48 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Blaudschun obviously wrote this as a favor for his source in the AAC: "perhaps as much as $30 million each for UCF, Houston and Cincinnati"

UConn and the AAC agreed on July 26, 2019 that UConn could leave less than a year later, on July 1, 2020, for an exit fee of $17 million. https://www.ctpost.com/uconn/article/UCo...178493.php

And i'm sure the three leaving will bring that point up. It wont be 30 but 17-19 range maybe some promised OOC games to boot like UCF promising to keep their series with USF going to lower the price.
09-13-2021 08:53 PM
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otown Offline
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-13-2021 08:53 PM)BigEastMike Wrote:  
(09-13-2021 08:48 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Blaudschun obviously wrote this as a favor for his source in the AAC: "perhaps as much as $30 million each for UCF, Houston and Cincinnati"

UConn and the AAC agreed on July 26, 2019 that UConn could leave less than a year later, on July 1, 2020, for an exit fee of $17 million. https://www.ctpost.com/uconn/article/UCo...178493.php

And i'm sure the three leaving will bring that point up. It wont be 30 but 17-19 range maybe some promised OOC games to boot like UCF promising to keep their series with USF going to lower the price.

I don't think UCF would have any problem of keeping the series. It's just that USF's OOC schedule is full for the next 10 years........
09-14-2021 12:16 AM
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goofus Offline
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
Lame Duck status is not ideal, but to describe it as horrible is a bit of a stretch. Nobody develops PTSD from having to spend an extra year or 2 in an old conference. If the money does not make sense to move early, schools will stick it out.

I hear different things regarding Tex and Ok buyouts of the GOR. Would it be $80M total per team to leave by 2022, or would it be $80M per year per school?

For example, if it was $80M per year per team, it would cost Tex and Ok the following amounts for the year they want to leave

2022 - $240M
2023 - $160M
2024 - $80M
2025 - ??

Anyway, if somebody could help clarify this, I would appreciate it.
09-14-2021 04:50 AM
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 04:50 AM)goofus Wrote:  Lame Duck status is not ideal, but to describe it as horrible is a bit of a stretch. Nobody develops PTSD from having to spend an extra year or 2 in an old conference. If the money does not make sense to move early, schools will stick it out.

I hear different things regarding Tex and Ok buyouts of the GOR. Would it be $80M total per team to leave by 2022, or would it be $80M per year per school?

For example, if it was $80M per year per team, it would cost Tex and Ok the following amounts for the year they want to leave

2022 - $240M
2023 - $160M
2024 - $80M
2025 - ??

Anyway, if somebody could help clarify this, I would appreciate it.

The bylaws say 2 years distributions which is about 40 million a year per school.
09-14-2021 07:39 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
It's just common sense. I don't know why there have been so many people on this forum who have been preaching Texas and Oklahoma are staying for 4 years. Its like a bad relationship, once your significant other has indicated they are moving on cohabitating afterwards is problematic. Best to kick them to the curb, even it costs you a few bucks on the front end.
(This post was last modified: 09-14-2021 07:45 AM by CliftonAve.)
09-14-2021 07:44 AM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Everybody's working for 2022
(09-13-2021 08:34 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  And here I was working for the weekend like a chump

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09-14-2021 08:02 AM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
The UCONN price wasn’t that high because no moves needed to be made in response and no value was lost by having them leave. If those 3 left for 22 the AAC would have to add schools for 22 and there would be a massive negative financial impact. I don’t know what the number would be, don’t think 30, but I’d be stunned if it was not higher than UCONNs total.
09-14-2021 08:08 AM
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
Time will tell, but I think I still think it'll be 7/1/23 for all parties involved. For the SEC in particular it isn't as simple as just adding a team to each division like has been done in the past, there are entire schedule formats that need to be overhauled and decisions made about pods/divisionless/etc. There is also the issue of sorting out the new playoff format. I can see them wanting to have a normal 2022 and taking a few months to sort all of the other stuff out.
(This post was last modified: 09-14-2021 08:38 AM by Gamecock.)
09-14-2021 08:36 AM
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Todor Offline
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
If I were the Big 12 or AAC, I'd want to keep the exiting members as long as possible. If they are worth money as members, keep that money coming in. If they generate payouts that stay with the conference, keep them hostage as long as possible unless they pay such an exorbitant exit fee that it leaves the remaining schools set for a while.

If their new conference wants them badly enough, they'll pay a lot more to get them. If they bring a lot of value, it may be worth it to them.

By forcing them to stay as long as possible, it keeps their athletics department in a kind of lame duck limbo status and can affect numerous recruiting classes, while still benefiting the original conference in the short term. And it also denies the new conference it's new members for as long as possible so it helps keep competing conferences revenues in check for a tiny bit longer.

If the exiting members are going to increase their revenue a lot, and in turn, use that money and status against the old conference members, its reasonable to make that hard for them. If the increase will be large, its smart to make it a long term gamble, and have at least a decade before they even begin to come out ahead.
(This post was last modified: 09-14-2021 09:02 AM by Todor.)
09-14-2021 08:55 AM
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
BYU wants to join in 2025. If they join next year, they have to cancel & buy out 18 games over the next 3 years.

Even if they join in 2025, BYU has to buy out 4 games in 2025, 4 in 2026, and 1 in 2028.
09-14-2021 09:20 AM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 08:55 AM)Todor Wrote:  If I were the Big 12 or AAC, I'd want to keep the exiting members as long as possible. If they are worth money as members, keep that money coming in. If they generate payouts that stay with the conference, keep them hostage as long as possible unless they pay such an exorbitant exit fee that it leaves the remaining schools set for a while.

If their new conference wants them badly enough, they'll pay a lot more to get them. If they bring a lot of value, it may be worth it to them.

By forcing them to stay as long as possible, it keeps their athletics department in a kind of lame duck limbo status and can affect numerous recruiting classes, while still benefiting the original conference in the short term. And it also denies the new conference it's new members for as long as possible so it helps keep competing conferences revenues in check for a tiny bit longer.

If the exiting members are going to increase their revenue a lot, and in turn, use that money and status against the old conference members, its reasonable to make that hard for them. If the increase will be large, its smart to make it a long term gamble, and have at least a decade before they even begin to come out ahead.

I don't think there's any real long term benefit to being petty about it, in fact doing it just to keep them from getting their money as long as possible just ensures you have enemies long term. That doesn't mean there's any strategic benefit for letting them out quickly and cheaply either. While there is precedence with the 17 million price UCONN paid you can also argue those are very different circumstances with UCONN not triggering any additional need to add members short term or any decrease in per team revenue. This departure absolutely causes the first and baring something wild will cause the second as well. I'm not sure what a fair number is to be honest. To be out in 22 I feel pretty safe in assuming it would be a lot higher than UCONN paid. To be out in 23 I'm guessing probably at or near what UCONN paid.
09-14-2021 09:28 AM
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BigEastMike Offline
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 09:20 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  BYU wants to join in 2025. If they join next year, they have to cancel & buy out 18 games over the next 3 years.

Even if they join in 2025, BYU has to buy out 4 games in 2025, 4 in 2026, and 1 in 2028.

I'm sure there are outs in those contracts if they join a conference.
09-14-2021 09:31 AM
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Jugnaut Offline
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 08:36 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  Time will tell, but I think I still think it'll be 7/1/23 for all parties involved. For the SEC in particular it isn't as simple as just adding a team to each division like has been done in the past, there are entire schedule formats that need to be overhauled and decisions made about pods/divisionless/etc. There is also the issue of sorting out the new playoff format. I can see them wanting to have a normal 2022 and taking a few months to sort all of the other stuff out.

I think the logistics of the moves will make 7/1/23 the date. Too many issues to work out to get them there next season.
09-14-2021 09:36 AM
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Jared7 Offline
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 07:39 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 04:50 AM)goofus Wrote:  Lame Duck status is not ideal, but to describe it as horrible is a bit of a stretch. Nobody develops PTSD from having to spend an extra year or 2 in an old conference. If the money does not make sense to move early, schools will stick it out.

I hear different things regarding Tex and Ok buyouts of the GOR. Would it be $80M total per team to leave by 2022, or would it be $80M per year per school?

For example, if it was $80M per year per team, it would cost Tex and Ok the following amounts for the year they want to leave

2022 - $240M
2023 - $160M
2024 - $80M
2025 - ??

Anyway, if somebody could help clarify this, I would appreciate it.

The bylaws say 2 years distributions which is about 40 million a year per school.
No, the bylaws say that withholdings start immediately after the Notice of Withdrawal was given which commences the Interim Period. That is set to last for 4 years and it's $160 million per school. Blatantly misrepresenting what the bylaws actually say is par for the course for UT, who blatantly breached a 99-year commitment and is now trying to get out of paying what they owe. And if they leave 3 years early, it'll be whatever they earn in the SEC; which would mean much more than $160 million each.
09-14-2021 09:36 AM
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YNot Offline
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 09:20 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  BYU wants to join in 2025. If they join next year, they have to cancel & buy out 18 games over the next 3 years.

Even if they join in 2025, BYU has to buy out 4 games in 2025, 4 in 2026, and 1 in 2028.

Nope. BYU wants to join in 2023. They won't have to buyout much if they start 2023 because they have a cancellation clause in their game contracts that allows them to cancel with no buyout if they join a P5 conference and give 18 months notice...so notice in Spring 2022 for the Fall 2023 games.

They also want to give the WCC two more years (2021-22, 2022-23) as a goodwill gesture to their conference mates.

My hunch is that BYU will keep its 2022 football schedule and then keep, buy out, or reschedule any return road trips for which the first game has already been played in Provo.

There will definitely be some tough scheduling decisions. Do you keep the best games or do you try to put together a manageable OOC schedule? What to do with the three rivalry series - Utah, Utah State, and Boise State?
09-14-2021 09:38 AM
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Jared7 Offline
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
And the idea that "everybody" is working towards 2022 is simply not accurate. The Big 12 and BYU and Houston have already agreed on 2023 and they are working on 2023 for Cincinnati and UCF as well. To the author, "everybody" apparently means UT and the SEC; which seems to me, at least, that this article is relying on UT sources and nobody else. If UT and OU are willing to pay $160+ million, then they can go. "Everybody" can agree on that. The Big 12 has already done the best they can to mitigate the irreparable harm caused by UT's breach of the 99-year commitment by inviting new teams to come into the conference in 2023; forcing us to play with only 8 teams in 2022 would only add to the damages.

And it may not even mean the SEC. Sankey has been quoted as saying that he wants an "orderly transition." If UT thinks they can leave for less than the $160+ million they owe, then it won't be orderly at all.
(This post was last modified: 09-14-2021 10:06 AM by Jared7.)
09-14-2021 09:41 AM
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