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Everybody's working for 2022
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Crayton Online
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Post: #21
RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 08:08 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The UCONN price wasn’t that high because no moves needed to be made in response and no value was lost by having them leave. If those 3 left for 22 the AAC would have to add schools for 22 and there would be a massive negative financial impact. I don’t know what the number would be, don’t think 30, but I’d be stunned if it was not higher than UCONNs total.
If the AAC could hang on to 1 of the 3 til '23, they wouldn't need a warm body for '22. In football 9 is enough for a full conference schedule.
09-14-2021 09:43 AM
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Crayton Online
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Post: #22
RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 09:36 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 07:39 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 04:50 AM)goofus Wrote:  Lame Duck status is not ideal, but to describe it as horrible is a bit of a stretch. Nobody develops PTSD from having to spend an extra year or 2 in an old conference. If the money does not make sense to move early, schools will stick it out.

I hear different things regarding Tex and Ok buyouts of the GOR. Would it be $80M total per team to leave by 2022, or would it be $80M per year per school?

For example, if it was $80M per year per team, it would cost Tex and Ok the following amounts for the year they want to leave

2022 - $240M
2023 - $160M
2024 - $80M
2025 - ??

Anyway, if somebody could help clarify this, I would appreciate it.

The bylaws say 2 years distributions which is about 40 million a year per school.
No, the bylaws say that withholdings start immediately after the Notice of Withdrawal was given which commences the Interim Period. That is set to last for 4 years and it's $160 million per school. Blatantly misrepresenting what the bylaws actually say is par for the course for UT, who blatantly breached a 99-year commitment and is now trying to get out of paying what they owe. And if they leave 3 years early, it'll be whatever they earn in the SEC; which would mean much more than $160 million each.

The withholding begins immediately, for good reason, but the maximum sum that will be withheld is still 2 years.

The GOR is a different beast; best guess now is that they'll still get paid through the Big 12 contract (playing SEC teams), and the SEC will gain their rights in 2025.
09-14-2021 09:47 AM
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Jared7 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 09:47 AM)Crayton Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:36 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 07:39 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 04:50 AM)goofus Wrote:  Lame Duck status is not ideal, but to describe it as horrible is a bit of a stretch. Nobody develops PTSD from having to spend an extra year or 2 in an old conference. If the money does not make sense to move early, schools will stick it out.

I hear different things regarding Tex and Ok buyouts of the GOR. Would it be $80M total per team to leave by 2022, or would it be $80M per year per school?

For example, if it was $80M per year per team, it would cost Tex and Ok the following amounts for the year they want to leave

2022 - $240M
2023 - $160M
2024 - $80M
2025 - ??

Anyway, if somebody could help clarify this, I would appreciate it.

The bylaws say 2 years distributions which is about 40 million a year per school.
No, the bylaws say that withholdings start immediately after the Notice of Withdrawal was given which commences the Interim Period. That is set to last for 4 years and it's $160 million per school. Blatantly misrepresenting what the bylaws actually say is par for the course for UT, who blatantly breached a 99-year commitment and is now trying to get out of paying what they owe. And if they leave 3 years early, it'll be whatever they earn in the SEC; which would mean much more than $160 million each.

The withholding begins immediately, for good reason, but the maximum sum that will be withheld is still 2 years.

The GOR is a different beast; best guess now is that they'll still get paid through the Big 12 contract (playing SEC teams), and the SEC will gain their rights in 2025.

What provision in the bylaws says that? The Interim Period commences and withholdings last until actual withdrawal. That's 4 years - not 2. Is Florida a party to this contract? Is the SEC? The GOR component will be more than $40 million per year (each). Best guess now is that UT and OU will owe much more than the $160 million they already owe.
(This post was last modified: 09-14-2021 09:53 AM by Jared7.)
09-14-2021 09:51 AM
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Bogg Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 08:08 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The UCONN price wasn’t that high because no moves needed to be made in response and no value was lost by having them leave. If those 3 left for 22 the AAC would have to add schools for 22 and there would be a massive negative financial impact. I don’t know what the number would be, don’t think 30, but I’d be stunned if it was not higher than UCONNs total.

UConn also agreed to four home-and-homes with the AAC in basketball as part of that deal (which gets a little dicey now, actually). A straight cash settlement seems likely to be above $20 million each.
09-14-2021 10:05 AM
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Post: #25
RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 09:31 AM)BigEastMike Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:20 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  BYU wants to join in 2025. If they join next year, they have to cancel & buy out 18 games over the next 3 years.

Even if they join in 2025, BYU has to buy out 4 games in 2025, 4 in 2026, and 1 in 2028.

I'm sure there are outs in those contracts if they join a conference.

Yes and those games can be rescheduled in later years.
09-14-2021 10:18 AM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 10:05 AM)Bogg Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 08:08 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The UCONN price wasn’t that high because no moves needed to be made in response and no value was lost by having them leave. If those 3 left for 22 the AAC would have to add schools for 22 and there would be a massive negative financial impact. I don’t know what the number would be, don’t think 30, but I’d be stunned if it was not higher than UCONNs total.

UConn also agreed to four home-and-homes with the AAC in basketball as part of that deal (which gets a little dicey now, actually). A straight cash settlement seems likely to be above $20 million each.

For getting out in 22 I agree I find it hard to believe the number would be anything under 20 million. I just don't find it likely for a whole bunch of reasons on all sides that leaving for 22 happens. I'm betting they are out by 23 and for some kind of buyout that looks similar to the number you guys paid. Yes it's only leaving 3 months earlier than the 27 months but those 3 months are football season.
09-14-2021 10:56 AM
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Post: #27
RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 10:56 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 10:05 AM)Bogg Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 08:08 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The UCONN price wasn’t that high because no moves needed to be made in response and no value was lost by having them leave. If those 3 left for 22 the AAC would have to add schools for 22 and there would be a massive negative financial impact. I don’t know what the number would be, don’t think 30, but I’d be stunned if it was not higher than UCONNs total.

UConn also agreed to four home-and-homes with the AAC in basketball as part of that deal (which gets a little dicey now, actually). A straight cash settlement seems likely to be above $20 million each.

For getting out in 22 I agree I find it hard to believe the number would be anything under 20 million. I just don't find it likely for a whole bunch of reasons on all sides that leaving for 22 happens. I'm betting they are out by 23 and for some kind of buyout that looks similar to the number you guys paid. Yes it's only leaving 3 months earlier than the 27 months but those 3 months are football season.
The athletic year is 1 July to the end of June tye following year, so the entry to the new conference will be July 1 in some year ... the 27 months deadline is literally April Fool's day two years prior to the move.
09-14-2021 11:03 AM
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Crayton Online
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Post: #28
RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 09:51 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:47 AM)Crayton Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:36 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  No, the bylaws say that withholdings start immediately after the Notice of Withdrawal was given which commences the Interim Period. That is set to last for 4 years and it's $160 million per school. Blatantly misrepresenting what the bylaws actually say is par for the course for UT, who blatantly breached a 99-year commitment and is now trying to get out of paying what they owe. And if they leave 3 years early, it'll be whatever they earn in the SEC; which would mean much more than $160 million each.

The withholding begins immediately, for good reason, but the maximum sum that will be withheld is still 2 years.

The GOR is a different beast; best guess now is that they'll still get paid through the Big 12 contract (playing SEC teams), and the SEC will gain their rights in 2025.

What provision in the bylaws says that? The Interim Period commences and withholdings last until actual withdrawal. That's 4 years - not 2. Is Florida a party to this contract? Is the SEC? The GOR component will be more than $40 million per year (each). Best guess now is that UT and OU will owe much more than the $160 million they already owe.

"Withhold" means the money actually belongs to Texas, but is kept in anticipation of being payed something, in this case: exit fees. Exit fees are equal to 2 years worth of media payouts. The Big 12 cannot withhold more than the exit fees. Naturally, the Big 12 should not wait until 2023 to start withholding and should start immediately, because as we see exit dates can change and it is better to get the money up front than to risk being stiffed later.

There is no mechanism (currently) by which Texas can retrieve their media rights; the Big 12 owns them. Texas, if they start play in the SEC before 2025, cannot give those rights to the SEC; the Big 12 owns them. BUT, because the Big 12 is still selling Texas home games to their media partners, they are also still paying Texas for those rights (subject to the withholding mentioned above).

Now, if Texas wants their media rights to be packaged with the SEC contract (and receive the larger payout that comes with it), they can TRY and buy them back from the Big 12. But the price may be prohibitive because estimates have the price as almost a quarter of the Big 12's existing media value.

The SEC's media value won't increase appreciably until they have those rights; 8 OUT games in other SEC stadiums will be roughly equal to the 8 teams sent to OUT stadiums. So, Texas won't see a revenue increase (maybe bowl payments? a nominal cut of the CCG money?) until their rights are transferred, likely in 2025.
09-14-2021 11:14 AM
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Crayton Online
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Post: #29
RE: Everybody's working for 2022
I mean, I suppose the remaining Big 12 members could vote to give Texas and Oklahoma $0 for airing their games, but I think that'd produce a lawsuit. Texas and Oklahoma will be out only the exit fees + loss of revenue from not getting SEC money until 2025 (the GOR effect).
(This post was last modified: 09-14-2021 11:19 AM by Crayton.)
09-14-2021 11:19 AM
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 09:38 AM)YNot Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:20 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  BYU wants to join in 2025. If they join next year, they have to cancel & buy out 18 games over the next 3 years.

Even if they join in 2025, BYU has to buy out 4 games in 2025, 4 in 2026, and 1 in 2028.

Nope. BYU wants to join in 2023. They won't have to buyout much if they start 2023 because they have a cancellation clause in their game contracts that allows them to cancel with no buyout if they join a P5 conference and give 18 months notice...so notice in Spring 2022 for the Fall 2023 games.

They also want to give the WCC two more years (2021-22, 2022-23) as a goodwill gesture to their conference mates.

My hunch is that BYU will keep its 2022 football schedule and then keep, buy out, or reschedule any return road trips for which the first game has already been played in Provo.

There will definitely be some tough scheduling decisions. Do you keep the best games or do you try to put together a manageable OOC schedule? What to do with the three rivalry series - Utah, Utah State, and Boise State?

Okay. If this is true, then the OP is incorrect.

BYU is not going to be in the Big 12 for 2022 unless the Big 12 makes it worth their while ($$$). I doubt the Big 12 wants that; they're not beggars.

I also doubt that the Big 12 wants an 11-team conference for 2022. The Big 12 wants Texas & OU to leave the same year that the new 4 join.
09-14-2021 11:41 AM
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Jared7 Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 11:14 AM)Crayton Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:51 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:47 AM)Crayton Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:36 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  No, the bylaws say that withholdings start immediately after the Notice of Withdrawal was given which commences the Interim Period. That is set to last for 4 years and it's $160 million per school. Blatantly misrepresenting what the bylaws actually say is par for the course for UT, who blatantly breached a 99-year commitment and is now trying to get out of paying what they owe. And if they leave 3 years early, it'll be whatever they earn in the SEC; which would mean much more than $160 million each.

The withholding begins immediately, for good reason, but the maximum sum that will be withheld is still 2 years.

The GOR is a different beast; best guess now is that they'll still get paid through the Big 12 contract (playing SEC teams), and the SEC will gain their rights in 2025.

What provision in the bylaws says that? The Interim Period commences and withholdings last until actual withdrawal. That's 4 years - not 2. Is Florida a party to this contract? Is the SEC? The GOR component will be more than $40 million per year (each). Best guess now is that UT and OU will owe much more than the $160 million they already owe.

"Withhold" means the money actually belongs to Texas, but is kept in anticipation of being payed something, in this case: exit fees. Exit fees are equal to 2 years worth of media payouts. The Big 12 cannot withhold more than the exit fees. Naturally, the Big 12 should not wait until 2023 to start withholding and should start immediately, because as we see exit dates can change and it is better to get the money up front than to risk being stiffed later.

There is no mechanism (currently) by which Texas can retrieve their media rights; the Big 12 owns them. Texas, if they start play in the SEC before 2025, cannot give those rights to the SEC; the Big 12 owns them. BUT, because the Big 12 is still selling Texas home games to their media partners, they are also still paying Texas for those rights (subject to the withholding mentioned above).

Now, if Texas wants their media rights to be packaged with the SEC contract (and receive the larger payout that comes with it), they can TRY and buy them back from the Big 12. But the price may be prohibitive because estimates have the price as almost a quarter of the Big 12's existing media value.

The SEC's media value won't increase appreciably until they have those rights; 8 OUT games in other SEC stadiums will be roughly equal to the 8 teams sent to OUT stadiums. So, Texas won't see a revenue increase (maybe bowl payments? a nominal cut of the CCG money?) until their rights are transferred, likely in 2025.
No, "withhold" means that the money was/will be earned by UT and OU but it will be applied to what the bylaws defines as the "Buyout Amount." The Buyout Amount is defined as the money withheld during the "Interim Period" - after notice of withdrawal is made until the actual date of withdrawal. There are no "exit fees" specified in the bylaws - only a "Buyout Amount." The Big 12 can certainly withhold the Buyout Amount as specified in the bylaws and that is currently 4 years worth of withholdings. The Buyout Amount was originally anticipated to be only 18 months of withholdings, but it didn't happen that way as UT and OU wanted to make a splashy announcement 2 years earlier than anticipated and rub everyone's faces in it for 2 extra years. They get that psychological advantage; the Big 12 gets 2 extra years added to the Buyout Amount.

You're right - absent a settlement, there is no way UT can get their media rights back. So, if the SEC, based on the already accepted invitation to join that conference, negotiates a new deal earning more per school, the Big 12 will own UT and OU's share of that money if they leave early. If they don't leave early, the money will be withheld. If they leave early, it will be an agreed amount to be paid either upfront or over time.

The SEC's media value has already appreciated because of the accepted invitation. Until the expiration of the GOR, the Big 12 owns all money UT and OU may earn from that appreciation.
(This post was last modified: 09-14-2021 11:44 AM by Jared7.)
09-14-2021 11:42 AM
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Todor Online
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Post: #32
RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 09:28 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 08:55 AM)Todor Wrote:  If I were the Big 12 or AAC, I'd want to keep the exiting members as long as possible. If they are worth money as members, keep that money coming in. If they generate payouts that stay with the conference, keep them hostage as long as possible unless they pay such an exorbitant exit fee that it leaves the remaining schools set for a while.

If their new conference wants them badly enough, they'll pay a lot more to get them. If they bring a lot of value, it may be worth it to them.

By forcing them to stay as long as possible, it keeps their athletics department in a kind of lame duck limbo status and can affect numerous recruiting classes, while still benefiting the original conference in the short term. And it also denies the new conference it's new members for as long as possible so it helps keep competing conferences revenues in check for a tiny bit longer.

If the exiting members are going to increase their revenue a lot, and in turn, use that money and status against the old conference members, its reasonable to make that hard for them. If the increase will be large, its smart to make it a long term gamble, and have at least a decade before they even begin to come out ahead.

I don't think there's any real long term benefit to being petty about it, in fact doing it just to keep them from getting their money as long as possible just ensures you have enemies long term. That doesn't mean there's any strategic benefit for letting them out quickly and cheaply either. While there is precedence with the 17 million price UCONN paid you can also argue those are very different circumstances with UCONN not triggering any additional need to add members short term or any decrease in per team revenue. This departure absolutely causes the first and baring something wild will cause the second as well. I'm not sure what a fair number is to be honest. To be out in 22 I feel pretty safe in assuming it would be a lot higher than UCONN paid. To be out in 23 I'm guessing probably at or near what UCONN paid.

If its petty to make them feel a little pain and make them pay as much as possible to leave, then its petty of the leavers to seek a better situation or expect not to pay a lot to leave, since their windfall will put them way ahead in the long run.
09-14-2021 11:51 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 11:14 AM)Crayton Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:51 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:47 AM)Crayton Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 09:36 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  No, the bylaws say that withholdings start immediately after the Notice of Withdrawal was given which commences the Interim Period. That is set to last for 4 years and it's $160 million per school. Blatantly misrepresenting what the bylaws actually say is par for the course for UT, who blatantly breached a 99-year commitment and is now trying to get out of paying what they owe. And if they leave 3 years early, it'll be whatever they earn in the SEC; which would mean much more than $160 million each.

The withholding begins immediately, for good reason, but the maximum sum that will be withheld is still 2 years.

The GOR is a different beast; best guess now is that they'll still get paid through the Big 12 contract (playing SEC teams), and the SEC will gain their rights in 2025.

What provision in the bylaws says that? The Interim Period commences and withholdings last until actual withdrawal. That's 4 years - not 2. Is Florida a party to this contract? Is the SEC? The GOR component will be more than $40 million per year (each). Best guess now is that UT and OU will owe much more than the $160 million they already owe.

"Withhold" means the money actually belongs to Texas, but is kept in anticipation of being payed something, in this case: exit fees. Exit fees are equal to 2 years worth of media payouts. The Big 12 cannot withhold more than the exit fees. Naturally, the Big 12 should not wait until 2023 to start withholding and should start immediately, because as we see exit dates can change and it is better to get the money up front than to risk being stiffed later.

There is no mechanism (currently) by which Texas can retrieve their media rights; the Big 12 owns them. Texas, if they start play in the SEC before 2025, cannot give those rights to the SEC; the Big 12 owns them. BUT, because the Big 12 is still selling Texas home games to their media partners, they are also still paying Texas for those rights (subject to the withholding mentioned above).

Now, if Texas wants their media rights to be packaged with the SEC contract (and receive the larger payout that comes with it), they can TRY and buy them back from the Big 12. But the price may be prohibitive because estimates have the price as almost a quarter of the Big 12's existing media value.

The SEC's media value won't increase appreciably until they have those rights; 8 OUT games in other SEC stadiums will be roughly equal to the 8 teams sent to OUT stadiums. So, Texas won't see a revenue increase (maybe bowl payments? a nominal cut of the CCG money?) until their rights are transferred, likely in 2025.

I tend to agree. IMO, the bylaws seem to contemplate two year's worth of withholdings as the buyout amount. The bylaws seem to call the "interim period" between notice and effective withdrawal as basically a two-year period. The logic seems to be - buyout amount is value of final two year's distribution, school gives notice two years in advance, buyout fee is withheld for those two years to pay off the buyout at the time the school exits.

It is fuzzy though because they also say that the moment you give notice, you don't collect any more distributions. The bylaws seem to assume that notice would be given two years in advance. They don't seem to have contemplated a school giving four year's notice.

I suspect it will end up being two year's worth of distribution, because otherwise, if say Kansas State were to "give notice" that they intend to leave in 2035, the L12 could seemingly withhold payment to them for the next 14 years, which IMO is nonsensical and could not survive in court. I suspect TX and OU will maintain that in July they "gave notice that they will give notice" in July 2023 and if the L12 challenges that and says it is withholding all four years, then we end up in court. I think the L12 will lose that, as it doesn't pass the smell test (e.g. K-State hypothetical) and it would seem that it benefits a conference to know sooner rather than later than a school is leaving, so there's no real grounds for withholding for longer periods, that seems punitive. E.g., in this case, the early notice has allowed the L8 to make plans and expand with new members now, to become an L12. Better that it have that information now than in 2023, I would say.

FWIW, I expect a deal to be reached for them to leave sooner than 2025, probably 2023. What the dollars will be, I don't know. I suspect it will be about $80m - $100m each, but we shall see.
(This post was last modified: 09-14-2021 12:11 PM by quo vadis.)
09-14-2021 11:58 AM
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Jared7 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 11:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I tend to agree. IMO, the bylaws seem to contemplate two year's worth of withholdings as the buyout amount. The bylaws seem to call the "interim period" between notice and effective withdrawal as basically a two-year period. The logic seems to be - buyout amount is value of final two year's distribution, school gives notice two years in advance, buyout fee is withheld for those two years to pay off the buyout at the time the school exits.

It is fuzzy though because they also say that the moment you give notice, you don't collect any more distributions. The bylaws seem to assume that notice would be given two years in advance. They don't seem to have contemplated a school giving four year's notice.

I suspect it will end up being two year's worth of distribution, because otherwise, if say Kansas State were to "give notice" that they intend to leave in 2035, the L12 could seemingly withhold payment to them for the next 14 years, which IMO is nonsensical and could not survive in court. I suspect TX and OU will maintain that in July they "gave notice that they will give notice" in July 2023 and if the L12 challenges that and says it is withholding all four years, then we end up in court. I think the L12 will lose that, as it doesn't pass the smell test (e.g. K-State hypothetical) and it would seem that it benefits a conference to know sooner rather than later than a school is leaving, so there's no real grounds for withholding for longer periods, that seems punitive.

FWIW, I expect a deal to be reached for them to leave sooner than 2025, probably 2023. What the dollars will be, I don't know. I suspect it will be about $80m - $100m each, but we shall see.

KState is aware of what the bylaws provide and would not nonsensically give such a notice. Your hypothetical is as ludicrous as theorizing that the Big 12 has ceased to exist leaving only some administrators to enforce its rights and claiming that GOR's are unenforceable because they don't include "consideration."

If UT sticks to their "only 2-years" claim even though they gave 4 years' notice, it's going to court and there won't be that orderly transition that Sankey wants.

You're right that it's 2023 - not 2022 - as to the settlement negotiation target. That's what has already been agreed to with BYU and Houston. The Big 12 is not going to be playing with only 8 schools in 2022 unless UT and OU pay the full 4 years' worth of Buyout Amount plus any and all GOR components. That'll be way more than $80-100 million.

The idea that the SEC's media value has not already appreciated is just as ludicrous - that was the whole underlying purpose of the move.
(This post was last modified: 09-14-2021 12:23 PM by Jared7.)
09-14-2021 12:13 PM
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Post: #35
RE: Everybody's working for 2022
Random thought: Does a conference have the right of refusal for ads sold on their games? Mostly I'm wondering if there's a legal mechanism that keeps someone or some conference from buying airtime during this or next year's UT-OU game welcoming viewers to this future SEC game. There must be, right? Or has nobody tried peeing on that third rail yet?
09-14-2021 12:27 PM
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 10:05 AM)Bogg Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 08:08 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The UCONN price wasn’t that high because no moves needed to be made in response and no value was lost by having them leave. If those 3 left for 22 the AAC would have to add schools for 22 and there would be a massive negative financial impact. I don’t know what the number would be, don’t think 30, but I’d be stunned if it was not higher than UCONNs total.

UConn also agreed to four home-and-homes with the AAC in basketball as part of that deal (which gets a little dicey now, actually). A straight cash settlement seems likely to be above $20 million each.

That wasnt a factor because it was a complete unknown when the exit fee was negotiated. The exit fee was decided in July of 2019. The AAC hadnt reached any agreement with ESPN on the future of their deal without UConn at that point. In fact, the AAC was still negotiating the effect on the TV deal with ESPN as late as December of 2019. W Virginia paid 20 million to exit early---but W Virginia left when the Big East was still a power conference and still had the C7, Louisville, Rutgers, and hopes of a much higher TV deal. Im guessing 17 million is going to be the price because a precedent has essentially been set with the UConn exit. I think the AAC schools will be gone by 2022.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...port-says/

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/c...story.html
(This post was last modified: 09-14-2021 12:54 PM by Attackcoog.)
09-14-2021 12:51 PM
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 04:50 AM)goofus Wrote:  Lame Duck status is not ideal, but to describe it as horrible is a bit of a stretch. Nobody develops PTSD from having to spend an extra year or 2 in an old conference. If the money does not make sense to move early, schools will stick it out.

I hear different things regarding Tex and Ok buyouts of the GOR. Would it be $80M total per team to leave by 2022, or would it be $80M per year per school?

According to the bylaws, the Big 12 buyout is 2 years of league revenue distributions, about $80M.

But by another reading of the bylaws, once you announce your withdrawal, you stop getting revenue distributions. This was clearly designed as a way to enforce the $80M or so exit fee, but the way it's written, Oklahoma and Texas don't get another dime.

And, of course, there's the Grant of Rights, which has no early-exit clauses at all. As written, the Big 12 just owns UT and OU's TV rights until 2025, in return for Valuable Considerations which have never been clear to me but I am assured by smart people will (probably) stand up in court.

So there are a couple of interrelated questions:
Q: How big is the buyout to leave the Big 12?
A: $80M minimum.
Q: Can UT and OU work a deal to leave early? How much would it cost?
A: Possibly.
Q: Will the Grant of Rights hold up?
A: Frank The TAnk is a lawyer, he says yes. Clay Travis is (was?) a lawyer, says no.

One possible agreement for UT and OU to leave early is for UT and OU to agree to not challenge the GOR, leaving their home games under the Big 12 contract.

My guess is that UT and OU agree to STAY in the Big 12 until 2025, and in return the Big 12 agrees to structure their exit fee by withholding half and paying half of the UT/OU distributions for the 4 lame duck years.
09-14-2021 12:58 PM
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Post: #38
RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 07:44 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  It's just common sense. I don't know why there have been so many people on this forum who have been preaching Texas and Oklahoma are staying for 4 years. Its like a bad relationship, once your significant other has indicated they are moving on cohabitating afterwards is problematic. Best to kick them to the curb, even it costs you a few bucks on the front end.

It's not about "a few bucks". It's about $80M that Texas and Oklahoma don't have to spend. OU's revenue and expenses are about $160M a year, according to Equity In Athletics.

So it's like paying half a years' salary get out of the lease with your ex. At that price tag, you think long and hard about riding it out.
09-14-2021 01:02 PM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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RE: Everybody's working for 2022
(09-14-2021 12:51 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 10:05 AM)Bogg Wrote:  
(09-14-2021 08:08 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The UCONN price wasn’t that high because no moves needed to be made in response and no value was lost by having them leave. If those 3 left for 22 the AAC would have to add schools for 22 and there would be a massive negative financial impact. I don’t know what the number would be, don’t think 30, but I’d be stunned if it was not higher than UCONNs total.

UConn also agreed to four home-and-homes with the AAC in basketball as part of that deal (which gets a little dicey now, actually). A straight cash settlement seems likely to be above $20 million each.

That wasnt a factor because it was a complete unknown when the exit fee was negotiated. The exit fee was decided in July of 2019. The AAC hadnt reached any agreement with ESPN on the future of their deal without UConn at that point. In fact, the AAC was still negotiating the effect on the TV deal with ESPN as late as December of 2019. W Virginia paid 20 million to exit early---but W Virginia left when the Big East was still a power conference and still had the C7, Louisville, Rutgers, and hopes of a much higher TV deal. Im guessing 17 million is going to be the price because a precedent has essentially been set with the UConn exit. I think the AAC schools will be gone by 2022.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...port-says/

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/c...story.html

I'm betting it's higher. It is a precedent and I'm sure you guys will try to argue that, but UCONN wasn't a part of the schools that would trigger an automatic look in by ESPN if I remember correctly. It may not have been known for certain how the deal would be impacted by them leaving, but unless you believe Aresco is like legit stupid he had a pretty good idea of the impact before that was agreed to. No one is going to even pretend to argue the TV deal impact of losing UCONN and losing you 3 are going to be the same. Also leaving in 22 would require the AAC to figure out a way to get at least 1 new school in the league in 22 which has an additional cost that wasn't a part of UCONN's departure. I don't see it being under 20 to be out in 22. While I don't advocate for being petty, and don't think it's a good idea to try to burn bridges, there's not really any good legal footing to demand to be out in 1 year for the exact amount UCONN was. That was a settlement and every settlement is different depending on the circumstances it's not binding precedent.
09-14-2021 01:04 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Everybody's working for 2022
On the other hand, perhaps Texas is having buyers’ remorse about the SEC



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