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Cnelson203 Offline
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AAC Timetable
While I would hope that any conference would be constantly thinking about "what if" scenarios (meaning that, in the AAC's case, their staff has likely been gaming out different scenarios for quite some time), what is the reasonable time table for the AAC in naming replacements for the teams parting for the B12?

I would assume they don't have the luxury of waiting until the end of this season to make offers as schools from other conferences have contractual obligations, as well, and the AAC would want a full complement of teams (whether 10 or 12) ready to play when the others leave (whenever that might be.)

So, (serious question) how much time does the AAC reasonably have to make its moves? And one would presume that once they do, the remaining conferences (whether the MWC, CUSA, SBC or MAC) are already in the "gaming" process themselves.
09-11-2021 03:33 PM
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Cardiff Offline
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RE: AAC Timetable
In terms of public announcements, I think they have to shitt or get off the pot by October 1. If nothing happens by then, it will just mean they got turned down by their 1st/2nd/3rd choices and don’t know what to do next.
09-11-2021 03:40 PM
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Stugray2 Online
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RE: AAC Timetable
Schools leaving the MWC or CUSA can pretty much exit the very next July 1st from when they announce.

The schools joining the Big 12 are scheduled for 2024, but could move up to 2023; 2023 is the earliest the Big 12 is able to take them and when BYU joins. Power conferences sometimes need more lead time, especially with football commitments.

So the American has about 17 months. They could bring one school in early, in the next 5 months, to start next fall, which would make sense if it's Boise State, as that does not derail or force any other additions, giving them time to figure out the configuration they want.

At least two schools need to start by 2023 if as expected the Big 12 bound schools leave the in 2023. If they stay until 2024 (I think unlikely) then they actually have 29 months to find one or more likely three additional schools. But the key is the first one, and they can act relatively quickly if it's the right school.
09-11-2021 03:53 PM
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Milwaukee Offline
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RE: AAC Timetable
(09-11-2021 03:40 PM)Cardiff Wrote:  In terms of public announcements, I think they have to shitt or get off the pot by October 1. If nothing happens by then, it will just mean they got turned down by their 1st/2nd/3rd choices and don’t know what to do next.

Can you clarify what you mean by that?

It seems likely that you're proceeding on the assumption that they must add at least 1 or 2 schools by 2023.

Are you saying that they must issue formal invitations by Oct. 1, because they need to sign a team by January, and an Oct. 1 deadline would give them enough breathing room to work with if their first invitees decline the invitation.

I'd been thinking that the invitations might go out in 6-8 weeks, perhaps November 1 or Nov. 15th.

Presumably, the formal invitations won't go out until Aresco has a chance to guage, pretty accurately, which schools would and wouldn't accept an invitation.

The most time-consuming part of the job is probably to develop a consensus among the voting members of the AAC at each step along the way (e.g., which schools to talk to in the first place, which schools to put on the short list, which schools on the shoft list should be invited), and all the back-and-forth conversations with the schools.

Once the invitations go out, there could be lengthy discussions. The 2020 negotiations with Boise State, apparently, went on for months. If the invitations go out in early 2022 for schools to to announce they're joining for the 2023 season, there wouldn't be a great deal of time to work with.

But there are others who know more about these things than I do. These are just guesses on my part.
09-11-2021 04:50 PM
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Milwaukee Offline
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RE: AAC Timetable
(09-11-2021 03:53 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Schools leaving the MWC or CUSA can pretty much exit the very next July 1st from when they announce.

The schools joining the Big 12 are scheduled for 2024, but could move up to 2023; 2023 is the earliest the Big 12 is able to take them and when BYU joins. Power conferences sometimes need more lead time, especially with football commitments.

So the American has about 17 months. They could bring one school in early, in the next 5 months, to start next fall, which would make sense if it's Boise State, as that does not derail or force any other additions, giving them time to figure out the configuration they want.

At least two schools need to start by 2023 if as expected the Big 12 bound schools leave the in 2023. If they stay until 2024 (I think unlikely) then they actually have 29 months to find one or more likely three additional schools. But the key is the first one, and they can act relatively quickly if it's the right school.

What does it mean that "the American has about 17 months?"

17 months from now, it will be mid-February of 2023. Are you saying that the AAC could spend the next 17 months deciding which schools to invite for the 2023 season?

That seems like an awfully long time to wait, when you consider the fact that the Big 12 has invited 4 schools to join more than a year and a half before they would join the conference in July, 2023.

I agree with the previous post suggesting that the invitations should probably go out quite a bit earlier than that, for these reasons:

1) It usually seems to be customary to give prospective new members at least a year of "lead time," and preferably 18 months to get things in order before they make the jump.

2) The longer the AAC waits to respond by inviting new members, the weaker it may appear to be. Moving more promptly and decisively might be helpful from a public relations and public perception viewpoint.

3) Inviting new members will naturally shift the focus from the damage that's been done to "AAC 1.0" to the more positive topic of "the new AAC 2.0" and its implications. The sooner the topic can be shifted from AAC 1.0 to AAC 2.0, the better, it would seem.

.

Besides, how much time would it actually take the AAC to develop a short list, initiate discussions with the schools on the short list, narrow the list down to the top 4 that express interest in joining, and decide which schools to invite?

The above poster suggested an Oct. 1st deadline, and I was thinking something closer to mid-November. I could imagine waiting until late December, but wouldn't expect to take much longer than that to identify and invite the top two schools.

However, there are good reasons why it will take longer than that. What is your thinking on this? Why did you suggest taking over a year to do something that others think could be done in a few weeks or months?
09-11-2021 05:15 PM
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Stugray2 Online
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RE: AAC Timetable
Yes they can add somebody as late as the end of January. Those schools will exit immediately. We saw that repeatedly in 2011 to 2014 time frame, schools announcing in winter and leaving that summer. Missouri and Texas A&M were gone that quick. We saw schools leave basketball conferences as late a March and join their new conferences the coming fall.

Only the American among G5 has a long notification period and super stiff penalty. Boise State could split in early February and be in the American that very July, with the MWC simply withholding their distributions in lieu of the exit fee while that is worked out.

I think you guy seem to think more lead time is needed when in fact it's not. The American simply needs two schools in place in 2023 preferably four. If they can get the right school, which is Boise State, they could bring them in as early as next year should they be able to get them to agree by January.
09-11-2021 05:26 PM
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Side.Show.Joe Offline
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RE: AAC Timetable
I say 3 weeks is the timetable. I'm sure the AAC has been keeping tabs on several programs over the past few years, and has a good idea about which tires they want to kick.
09-11-2021 05:35 PM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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RE: AAC Timetable
I would say by early-November, at the latest.

To me, it is fascinating thinking about the voting blocks that remain within the AAC.

Temple, IMO, is likely on an island. They would love a Buffalo, a Marshall, Old Dominion, etc., in order to create at least one travel partner. They would also like a member that is competitive in hoops.

I think SMU, Tulsa, Wichita State and Navy are also a group. They would desire to keep more of a southwestern presence for many reasons.

ECU and USF are similar to me as well. They could care less about basketball, but would like a regional football partner that can support and sustain football.

Memphis can be similar with both SMU and USF in seeking a football power, but, differently, would also want a basketball program to help maintain the league as a high-major.

Thus, could it be where each block gets a pick? All - UAB. Temple - Marshall. Memphis/ECU/USF - Old Dominion. SMU/Tulsa/Navy/Wichita - Rice.
09-11-2021 05:48 PM
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Milwaukee Offline
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RE: AAC Timetable
(09-11-2021 05:48 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I would say by early-November, at the latest.

To me, it is fascinating thinking about the voting blocks that remain within the AAC.

Temple, IMO, is likely on an island. They would love a Buffalo, a Marshall, Old Dominion, etc., in order to create at least one travel partner. They would also like a member that is competitive in hoops.

I think SMU, Tulsa, Wichita State and Navy are also a group. They would desire to keep more of a southwestern presence for many reasons.

ECU and USF are similar to me as well. They could care less about basketball, but would like a regional football partner that can support and sustain football.

Memphis can be similar with both SMU and USF in seeking a football power, but, differently, would also want a basketball program to help maintain the league as a high-major.

Thus, could it be where each block gets a pick? All - UAB. Temple - Marshall. Memphis/ECU/USF - Old Dominion. SMU/Tulsa/Navy/Wichita - Rice.

When you break it down regionally like that, one possibility is that would be that they might focus on teams that are somewhere near the middle of the footprint, or located fairly near a few of the "AAC 2.0" schools.

But Aresco has indicated that they will have to be strong FB/BB schools, so that would pretty much eliminate Rice and ODU.

Breakdown:

App. St. would be a great FB-only add, and it would allow the AAC to add a top BB school as part of a hybrid Navy/Wichita type of arrangement. It would be a good fit for an AAC East division, near ECU, not too far from Temple, Navy, USF, Memphis, or Marshall.

Marshall would also be in a good location for a school in an AAC East division, not far from Temple, Navy, ECU, or Memphis. It's about the same distance to USF and New Orleans as New Orleans is to USF.

UAB is near the center of the conference, but they were destroyed by Georgia 56-0 today, and if they have a FB poor season, their chances could diminish.

ULL and LTU are fairly close to SMU, Tulsa, and Memphis, and closer to WSU than the others.

.

However, any FBS in the Eastern or Central time zones would be considered for membership in the AAC if its athletic programs are strong enough.
(This post was last modified: 09-11-2021 06:21 PM by Milwaukee.)
09-11-2021 06:13 PM
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Milwaukee Offline
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RE: AAC Timetable
(09-11-2021 05:26 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Yes they can add somebody as late as the end of January. Those schools will exit immediately. We saw that repeatedly in 2011 to 2014 time frame, schools announcing in winter and leaving that summer. Missouri and Texas A&M were gone that quick. We saw schools leave basketball conferences as late a March and join their new conferences the coming fall.

Only the American among G5 has a long notification period and super stiff penalty. Boise State could split in early February and be in the American that very July, with the MWC simply withholding their distributions in lieu of the exit fee while that is worked out.

I think you guy seem to think more lead time is needed when in fact it's not. The American simply needs two schools in place in 2023 preferably four. If they can get the right school, which is Boise State, they could bring them in as early as next year should they be able to get them to agree by January.

Thanks for this clarification. Sounds like there is might be more time to work with than some of us may have thought.

Now, two other guys have posted, and one has suggested that the AAC should make invitations in ~ 3 weeks, while the other suggests early November would be a date to shoot for, which is close to what I had been thinking.

Altogether, there are 4 who have said they would expect the invitations to be made at some point in October or November.

It may be the case that, while the deadline could theoretically be extended for over a year, most would expect the AAC to move far earlier than that. Wonder if you have any thoughts about that?

For example, can you think of any reason why the AAC would want or need to wait more than 3 or 4 months to invite some schools to join?
09-11-2021 06:28 PM
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Cardiff Offline
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RE: AAC Timetable
(09-11-2021 04:50 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(09-11-2021 03:40 PM)Cardiff Wrote:  In terms of public announcements, I think they have to shitt or get off the pot by October 1. If nothing happens by then, it will just mean they got turned down by their 1st/2nd/3rd choices and don’t know what to do next.

Can you clarify what you mean by that?

It seems likely that you're proceeding on the assumption that they must add at least 1 or 2 schools by 2023.

Are you saying that they must issue formal invitations by Oct. 1, because they need to sign a team by January, and an Oct. 1 deadline would give them enough breathing room to work with if their first invitees decline the invitation.
I don’t think AAC is necessarily under any pressure to add any teams (whether 1, 2, or more) by July 1, 2023, or any other particular date.

But I do think that Aresco is the type of man who has done his homework and was not caught unawares by this. I think he has a desired/intended plan in mind — let’s call it Plan A — and if it’s going to work, then I think he will make a public announcement about it within 3 weeks or so. If the plan doesn’t work, then it means the other targets turned him down and it’s on to Plan B or something beyond that. Which means no public announcement in the next 3 weeks. Unless it’s to announce that the process is still ongoing. And no way to know how long it will take, in that event.
09-11-2021 06:49 PM
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RE: AAC Timetable
I think this was already posted elsewhere on the board but apparently not everyone has seen it:

Aresco said his conference plans to move "deliberately and expeditiously" to add two to four teams and beef up the league to 10 or 12 following the three departures. Aresco declined to name specific schools the AAC is interested in, but said it would only "entertain institutions that have shown an interest in us."

"We're not trying to poach, we're not trying to persuade," he said. "There have been schools that have shown interest in us. I'm trying not to create any instability in the system. We're just trying right now to regroup. We know we need to get bigger. That's just a fact of life based on what's happened, but I'm trying not to rile things up."

Aresco said the AAC would likely look for members in all sports, not just football, but that's also a possibility.


https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...r-exit-fee

That sounds like weeks to me, not months or years.
09-11-2021 07:01 PM
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RE: AAC Timetable
(09-11-2021 05:26 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Yes they can add somebody as late as the end of January. Those schools will exit immediately. We saw that repeatedly in 2011 to 2014 time frame, schools announcing in winter and leaving that summer. Missouri and Texas A&M were gone that quick. We saw schools leave basketball conferences as late a March and join their new conferences the coming fall.

Only the American among G5 has a long notification period and super stiff penalty. Boise State could split in early February and be in the American that very July, with the MWC simply withholding their distributions in lieu of the exit fee while that is worked out.

I think you guy seem to think more lead time is needed when in fact it's not. The American simply needs two schools in place in 2023 preferably four. If they can get the right school, which is Boise State, they could bring them in as early as next year should they be able to get them to agree by January.

Even without other complicating factors, I don't think Boise State is the "right school" for the AAC. But Dennis Dodd's public speculation that Boise is a possibility for an invitation to the Big 12 once OUT leave for the SEC does complicate things. If you are Boise, and you believe you have a good chance of getting into a P5 conference, you are less likely to make a commitment to any G5 conference. For its part, the AAC would be aware of this possibility and would (if they are smart) take precautions against getting jilted (again) by Boise. I think Boise is now off the table for the AAC.
09-11-2021 07:40 PM
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Milwaukee Offline
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RE: AAC Timetable
(09-11-2021 07:01 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  I think this was already posted elsewhere on the board but apparently not everyone has seen it:

Aresco said his conference plans to move "deliberately and expeditiously" to add two to four teams and beef up the league to 10 or 12 following the three departures. Aresco declined to name specific schools the AAC is interested in, but said it would only "entertain institutions that have shown an interest in us."

"We're not trying to poach, we're not trying to persuade," he said. "There have been schools that have shown interest in us. I'm trying not to create any instability in the system. We're just trying right now to regroup. We know we need to get bigger. That's just a fact of life based on what's happened, but I'm trying not to rile things up."

Aresco said the AAC would likely look for members in all sports, not just football, but that's also a possibility.


https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...r-exit-fee

That sounds like weeks to me, not months or years.

Interestingly, almost everyone, so far, seems to expect invitations to go out at some point in the middle of the football season.

However, "Murphy's law" ("anything that can go wrong will go wrong"), tends to throw a monkey wrench into the works, and this could slow down the process somewhat.

One thing I find troubling about what Aresco said is that he has no intention of discussing possible membership with any school that doesn't contact him first. That could easily have a devastating impact on the pool of potential members.

The AAC would be most likely to be able to add the best teams if it were to draw up a list of their top choices and contact all of those.

It would be very possible that some schools would join the AAC if invited, even if they don't take the first step. Some university presidents and ADs may hope or expect that the AAC will reach out to them, and may be disappointed when they don't receive an invitation.

At the very least, it would seem that Aresco should send a letter to all of the G5 ADs and presidents, informing them that any school that would be interested in joining the AAC will have to contact him in order to be considered as a possible member. But somehow, it seems unlikely that he'll do that.

Sitting back and waiting for people to contact him may explain why ESPN has reported that Aresco has had discussions about membership with Rice and UNCC -- two of the worst FB/BB schools in the entire G5. If he had held discussions with Marshall and Appalachian State, ESPN surely would had reported that - - but they haven't. Maybe he's not as capable as some people to think he is, when it comes to adding quality members.

"we're not trying to persuade (any schools to join the AAC)" -Commissioner Aresco

This may explain why he failed to bring Boise State into the conference last year.

What the bleep is he supposed to be doing, if not to persuade the best teams to join the conference? He's being far too passive about this, if you ask me.

How can he expect anyone to take him seriously when he claims that the AAC will remain a "P6" conference when he's not even willing to pick up the phone and invite any school that hasn't reached out to him first?

.

On another matter, he may have dropped a hint when he said that he's looking for teams that are good in all sports, not just football.

Since there are few schools that are terrific in all sports, this may suggest that the AAC will consider adding 1 or more BB/olympic sports members and FB-only members. Another possibility is that they will consider adding schools with good FB programs and halfway decent BB schools (e.g., Marshall, ULL, UAB, & Louisiana Tech).

Overall, I haven't seen anything in these remarks by Aresco that makes me feel confident that he's going to bring the best available teams into the AAC.

If he brings Rice and Charlotte in, he might end up consigning the AAC to oblivion.
09-11-2021 08:26 PM
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RE: AAC Timetable
(09-11-2021 06:28 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  For example, can you think of any reason why the AAC would want or need to wait more than 3 or 4 months to invite some schools to join?
Sure. If the AAC gets rejected by the schools they actually want, and have to scramble to find some others. That could be an open-ended process.
09-11-2021 08:46 PM
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RE: AAC Timetable
(09-11-2021 08:26 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Interestingly, almost everyone, so far, seems to expect invitations to go out at some point in the middle of the football season.
Put it this way: I believe Aresco’s plan is to do that. His intention is to do that. If he winds up not doing that, it’s because his plan didn’t work out.

Quote:However, "Murphy's law" ("anything that can go wrong will go wrong"), tends to throw a monkey wrench into the works, and this could slow down the process somewhat.
If things go wrong, the plan will change. Yes.

Quote:One thing I find troubling about what Aresco said is that he has no intention of discussing possible membership with any school that doesn't contact him first. That could easily have a devastating impact on the pool of potential members.
Only if you think there are schools that want to join the American, but have not reached out to Aresco or any of the AAC Presidents/Chancellors/etc. That just doesn’t sound real to me. Disagree if you like.

Quote:The AAC would be most likely to be able to add the best teams if it were to draw up a list of their top choices and contact all of those.
I really have no doubt whatsoever that every school Aresco is interested in, is aware of that interest. Now, that doesn’t mean the interest is mutual. But the interest is known, and acknowledged in one way or another. Zero doubt.

Quote:[Aresco] may have dropped a hint when he said that he's looking for teams that are good in all sports, not just football.

Since there are few schools that are terrific in all sports, this may suggest that the AAC will consider adding 1 or more BB/olympic sports members and FB-only members
True. That wouldn’t surprise me at all.

Quote:Overall, I haven't seen anything in these remarks by Aresco that makes me feel confident that he's going to bring the best available teams into the AAC.
Define “available”.

I’d put it this way: Aresco, and the AAC’s institutional leaders, and the AAC’s media partners (primarily ESPN, of course) know exactly what criteria they are using, and they know exactly what the pecking order is for each possible candidate. They can’t force someone to say yes that doesn’t want to. But they are not going to get confused and bypass A in favor of B unless A explicitly says no.

Quote:If he brings Rice and Charlotte in, he might end up consigning the AAC to oblivion.
That’s true. Bringing in Rice and Charlotte would be a disaster for the AAC. But it would be wonderful for C-USA! Here’s hoping.
09-11-2021 09:16 PM
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #17
RE: AAC Timetable
(09-11-2021 08:46 PM)Cardiff Wrote:  
(09-11-2021 06:28 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  For example, can you think of any reason why the AAC would want or need to wait more than 3 or 4 months to invite some schools to join?
Sure. If the AAC gets rejected by the schools they actually want, and have to scramble to find some others. That could be an open-ended process.

I may not have made it clear enough, but if you read it in context, I was trying to ask if he could think of any reason why the AAC would want or need to wait more than 3 or 4 months to invite ANY schools to join?

So your response that they might end up waiting because they get rejected by the schools they actually want isn't an answer to the question I was trying to ask.

So I'll re-phrase the question: "Can you (or anyone) think of any reason why the AAC would want or need to wait more than 3 or 4 months to invite ANY schools at all to join?"

Could there be some reasons for doing that? There could. For example, they might be too busy with some other urgent matters, or the schools they initiate a conversation with might drag their heels and delay the process for various reasons, or it might take AAC presidents more than 3 or 4 months to come to an agreement about which schools they should invite.

For any of those reasons, one could understand why the AAC might not be able to invite any school until January or February.

Most of us might hope and expect the invitations to go out earlier than that, say by November.

However, knowing what we now know - - which is that Aresco has said he isn't even going to lift a finger to talk to any school that doesn't approach him with a request to join the AAC - - maybe it would be best if the AAC waits 3 to 6 months, to give all the schools plenty of time to take the first step and contact him.

He also made it clear that he has no intention of "trying to persuade" any school to join the AAC. Instead, they'll have to come to him and try to persuade the AAC to invite them to join.

(To me, this seems completely @$$-backwards, like refusing to ask a woman that you happen to be interested in to go out with you, and refusing to go out with any woman who fails to you to go out with her!)

Accordingly, perhaps the last thing we should hope for at this point would be that only 3 or 4 of the most desperate schools contact him by October 1st, and yet he decides, "well, those are the only schools that reached out, but we want to get a decision quickly on this, so we'll invite two of them to join."

After all, the longer the AAC waits, the more time there will be for the best schools to "read Aresco's mind" and come to the realization that they've got to make the first move if they want to join the AAC.
09-11-2021 10:39 PM
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RE: AAC Timetable
It will happen quicker than what most people probably think, just as the Big 12 expansion happened quicker than what most people thought.

Anyone who wants to join the AAC knows already and would have reached out to Aresco. The schools that actually matter (like Boise State) either know whether they want to join the AAC or not. Waiting a few months won’t change that fact. I wouldn’t read anything into Aresco only talking to schools that contact the AAC first - that is 100% how every conference operates.
09-11-2021 10:47 PM
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Post: #19
RE: AAC Timetable
(09-11-2021 10:39 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(09-11-2021 08:46 PM)Cardiff Wrote:  
(09-11-2021 06:28 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  For example, can you think of any reason why the AAC would want or need to wait more than 3 or 4 months to invite some schools to join?
Sure. If the AAC gets rejected by the schools they actually want, and have to scramble to find some others. That could be an open-ended process.
…I'll re-phrase the question: "Can you (or anyone) think of any reason why the AAC would want or need to wait more than 3 or 4 months to invite ANY schools at all to join?"
Oh, okay. Now I get it.

No, I don’t think there is any valid reason for that.

Quote:[The schools being considered for membership] might be too busy with some other urgent matters, or the schools they initiate a conversation with might drag their heels and delay the process for various reasons, or it might take AAC presidents more than 3 or 4 months to come to an agreement about which schools they should invite.
That might possible delay things from the beginning of October to the beginning of November, but no I don’t think there is any real-world scenario where this process goes into December/January without some public confirmation of what’s going on, *except* if the AAC is getting rejected by its targets. And honestly, if that’s what’s going on, I think you’ll see that slip out into the media by October, anyway, which is basically what I was predicting in the first place.

I just don’t think this process is all that mysterious or confusing, and I don’t think it’s going to drag out, except (to repeat) if Aresco/AAC get blocked/rejected and are scrambling to drum up a backup plan of some sort. Which could definitely happen, although I think the chances of that are less than 50/50.
09-11-2021 10:57 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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I Root For: VanMemIndDePaulUNCBelCin
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Post: #20
RE: AAC Timetable
I don't foresee Boise (or any MWC programs) being interested in the AAC — unless Aresco has a plan to, for example, lure six or more Mountain West programs. The MWC was not wounded by the Big 12 and should simply stand with solidarity. It is now, on paper, a better league overall than the AAC.

GoldenWarrior11's point about "voting blocs" in the American makes a lot of sense. In a perfect world, each of the AAC's blocs would see an addition appealing to it. From the Memphis perspective, the best choice would be a program that, ideally, is at least solid (or potentially so) in both football and men's basketball, is located in a city and that has some shared-league history with Memphis. The only two programs that fit that mold are Charlotte and UAB. I would be fine with the AAC adding both.

I do anticipate the AAC moving quickly and that it will invite four universities.
09-11-2021 11:05 PM
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