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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #21
RE: AAC Timetable
(09-11-2021 09:16 PM)Cardiff Wrote:  [quote='Milwaukee' pid='17628299' dateline='1631409961']

Quote:One thing I find troubling about what Aresco said is that he has no intention of discussing possible membership with any school that doesn't contact him first. That could easily have a devastating impact on the pool of potential members.

Only if you think there are schools that want to join the American, but have not reached out to Aresco or any of the AAC Presidents/Chancellors/etc. That just doesn’t sound real to me. Disagree if you like.

Ok, I will disagree on that point. You seem to think that all of the schools that have potential interest in joining the AAC have reached out or will soon reach out to Aresco.

I'm not at all convinced that they have or that they will, and here's why:

There are some "go-getters" in this world who know that for anything good to happen, they've got to go out and make things happen. In my view, the "go-getters" among the various university presidents are going to reach out to the AAC and let them know that they'd like to join.

Then, there are the "let them come to me" crowd. They don't believe in asking for anything, because they think that would make them look weak. Some of those are the proudest, and they often have the most to be proud of. They may also be a bit narcissistic, as many people are. Their pride and self-absorption prevents them from reaching out, and this could prevent them, including some of the best candidates from asking to be invited to join the AAC.

A third group includes people, including some university presidents who are overwhelmed with millions of responsibilities and simply don't have time to, or don't get around to requesting an invitation to the AAC because they've got so many other things on their mind. They figure that "if the AAC really wants our school to join, they'll be savvy enough to ask us. Besides, I've got a million other things to deal with right now."

What I'm suggesting is that the only university presidents who are going to make the initial contact with the AAC are those in group 1 - - the "go-getters."

.

I'm pointing out what I think is a fallacy at the foundation of the idea that all the university presidents know that if they want to join the AAC, they have to contact Mike Aresco and express their interest in joining the conference.

That type of fallacy is sometimes described as the "perfect" or "complete information hypothesis." It assumes that everyone who is capable of making a decision does so rationally and is so well-informed that he has complete information about all the key variables, knows exactly what to do, and is smart enough to do it in a timely manner.

The argument against the "complete information hypothesis" is that hardly anyone has perfect or complete information, and that people don't make decisions the way computers do. Most people have all kinds of conflicting priorities, and they're often overwhelmed with myriad tasks and responsibilities, so they have to "triage" or focus on only a few of the most pressing things at any one time, and let everything else sort itself out.

There are also some other factors that could prevent some of the presidents from contacting Aresco, even if they'd seriously consider joining the AAC, if asked. For example, a couple of them might find it annoying that Aresco wasn't willing to contact them first with an invitation, and their annoyance might be enough to keep them from contacting him.

Some may simply have too little interest in athletics to follow the news carefully, and so they simply may not realize that there's a golden opportunity to join the AAC. By the time they hear about it, the AAC has already decided that they'll invite some other school.

A couple of others might be dealing with some kind of personal stress, illness, traumatic event, or emotional problems that make it harder than usual to make critical decisions for a period of time. Not everyone functions well, consistently, and many humans go through unproductive periods. If contacted, an emotionally distressed university president might be thrilled to get an invitation to join the AAC, but he/she might not be able to summon the will power to make the first contact.

These are some of the types of things that could prevent certain university presidents from being the first to contact the AAC to apply for membership. There may be others that I haven't listed, but the existence of such factors points out what I consider a potentially tragic logical flaw in Commissioner Aresco's reasoning, which is that he's not going to contact any schools, because he doesn't want to rock the boat, or to "rile" anything or anybody up.

What Aresco doesn't realize, I would subscribe, is that there may be many university presidents and ADs who would be very interested in considering an invitation to join the AAC if asked, but who won't get around to asking for one of a thousand different reasons.
09-11-2021 11:17 PM
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Cardiff Offline
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Post: #22
RE: AAC Timetable
(09-11-2021 10:47 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  It will happen quicker than what most people probably think, just as the Big 12 expansion happened quicker than what most people thought.

Anyone who wants to join the AAC knows already and would have reached out to Aresco. The schools that actually matter (like Boise State) either know whether they want to join the AAC or not. Waiting a few months won’t change that fact. I wouldn’t read anything into Aresco only talking to schools that contact the AAC first - that is 100% how every conference operates.
No more, no less.
09-11-2021 11:22 PM
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #23
RE: AAC Timetable
(09-11-2021 11:22 PM)Cardiff Wrote:  
(09-11-2021 10:47 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  It will happen quicker than what most people probably think, just as the Big 12 expansion happened quicker than what most people thought.

Anyone who wants to join the AAC knows already and would have reached out to Aresco. The schools that actually matter (like Boise State) either know whether they want to join the AAC or not. Waiting a few months won’t change that fact. I wouldn’t read anything into Aresco only talking to schools that contact the AAC first - that is 100% how every conference operates.
No more, no less.

Well, you may be right, but the AAC fans who were hoping that Aresco would find a way to reel in a good replacement for UConn ended up being pretty disappointed.

Sometimes, it seems that he talks a big game, but doesn't always tend to deliver when it counts. Then again, it's possible that his failures to act may have been attributable to a failure of the AAC presidents to agree on anything of importance.

The AAC had a golden opportunity to strengthen themselves by replacing a weak UConn FB program with any of a number of strong FB programs, and they totally whiffed, and now they look like fools for blowing a "gimme." The fans have to deal with the consequences of their blunders.
(This post was last modified: 09-12-2021 12:34 AM by Milwaukee.)
09-12-2021 12:29 AM
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gulfcoastgal Offline
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Post: #24
RE: AAC Timetable
(09-12-2021 12:29 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(09-11-2021 11:22 PM)Cardiff Wrote:  
(09-11-2021 10:47 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  It will happen quicker than what most people probably think, just as the Big 12 expansion happened quicker than what most people thought.

Anyone who wants to join the AAC knows already and would have reached out to Aresco. The schools that actually matter (like Boise State) either know whether they want to join the AAC or not. Waiting a few months won’t change that fact. I wouldn’t read anything into Aresco only talking to schools that contact the AAC first - that is 100% how every conference operates.
No more, no less.

Well, you may be right, but the AAC fans who were hoping that Aresco would find a way to reel in a good replacement for UConn ended up being pretty disappointed.

Sometimes, it seems that he talks a big game, but doesn't always tend to deliver when it counts. Then again, it's possible that his failures to act may have been attributable to a failure of the AAC presidents to agree on anything of importance.

The AAC had a golden opportunity to strengthen themselves by replacing a weak UConn FB program with any of a number of strong FB programs, and they totally whiffed, and now they look like fools for blowing a "gimme." The fans have to deal with the consequences of their blunders.

You mean you and that Jed guy?
09-12-2021 03:30 AM
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #25
RE: AAC Timetable
(09-11-2021 03:40 PM)Cardiff Wrote:  In terms of public announcements, I think they have to shitt or get off the pot by October 1. If nothing happens by then, it will just mean they got turned down by their 1st/2nd/3rd choices and don’t know what to do next.

You could be right. It would certainly relieve some tension.

Is there one new member that you expect to see invited first?
09-12-2021 08:01 AM
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Cardiff Offline
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Post: #26
RE: AAC Timetable
(09-12-2021 08:01 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Is there one new member that you expect to see invited first?
I think UAB is a lock…

UNLESS they’re only looking at Mtn. West schools, and trying to put together some sort of a merger or partial-merger between the AAC’s remaining 8 and some # from MWC (2? 4? more?)
09-12-2021 08:23 AM
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goodknightfl Offline
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Post: #27
RE: AAC Timetable
The AAC already knows who has reached out. The big play if available is out west, but I doubt that happens.

My guess is 6 weeks from now you will know at least 2 schools and more than likely 4. Personal opinion Rice would be a terrible add.
any combo of ODU, Marshall, Buffalo, Ga St, UAB, Charlotte, and Maybe a F_U can make sense. Decent sized schools from decent Markets.

My 4, UAB, Marshall, ODU, and either Charlotte or Ga St.
09-12-2021 09:32 AM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #28
RE: AAC Timetable
(09-12-2021 09:32 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The AAC already knows who has reached out. The big play if available is out west, but I doubt that happens.

My guess is 6 weeks from now you will know at least 2 schools and more than likely 4. Personal opinion Rice would be a terrible add.
any combo of ODU, Marshall, Buffalo, Ga St, UAB, Charlotte, and Maybe a F_U can make sense. Decent sized schools from decent Markets.

My 4, UAB, Marshall, ODU, and either Charlotte or Ga St.

Thanks for the input, it's garbage, and enjoy the B12.
09-12-2021 09:39 AM
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Cardiff Offline
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Post: #29
RE: AAC Timetable
(09-12-2021 09:39 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(09-12-2021 09:32 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The AAC already knows who has reached out. The big play if available is out west, but I doubt that happens.

My guess is 6 weeks from now you will know at least 2 schools and more than likely 4. Personal opinion Rice would be a terrible add.
any combo of ODU, Marshall, Buffalo, Ga St, UAB, Charlotte, and Maybe a F_U can make sense. Decent sized schools from decent Markets.

My 4, UAB, Marshall, ODU, and either Charlotte or Ga St.

Thanks for the input, it's garbage, and enjoy the B12.
ODU and Charlotte are garbage.

UAB is strong.

Georgia State, Marshall somewhere in between. Georgia State on the same path as Houston and UCF, but that’s still a decade away.
09-12-2021 10:04 AM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #30
RE: AAC Timetable
(09-12-2021 10:04 AM)Cardiff Wrote:  
(09-12-2021 09:39 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(09-12-2021 09:32 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The AAC already knows who has reached out. The big play if available is out west, but I doubt that happens.

My guess is 6 weeks from now you will know at least 2 schools and more than likely 4. Personal opinion Rice would be a terrible add.
any combo of ODU, Marshall, Buffalo, Ga St, UAB, Charlotte, and Maybe a F_U can make sense. Decent sized schools from decent Markets.

My 4, UAB, Marshall, ODU, and either Charlotte or Ga St.

Thanks for the input, it's garbage, and enjoy the B12.
ODU and Charlotte are garbage.

UAB is strong.

Georgia State, Marshall somewhere in between. Georgia State on the same path as Houston and UCF, but that’s still a decade away.

UAB is the best of bad options. “Strong” doesn’t exist. If they were strong they’d have been #12 already.
09-12-2021 10:17 AM
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Post: #31
RE: AAC Timetable
If the AAC can't lure a couple of top MWC schools and if Army won't come then they don't have top brands to choose from like they did when they 1st formed.

The best football brands in CUSA are easy to spot; Marsall, UAB, La Tech. Other good teams are WKU, FAU, UTSA and UNT has had some recent success. USM has faded but everyone knows who they are.

I doubt that the AAC will take more than 2 out of CUSA.
09-12-2021 10:21 AM
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Post: #32
RE: AAC Timetable
(09-12-2021 10:17 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  UAB is the best of bad options. “Strong” doesn’t exist. If they were strong they’d have been #12 already.
Point taken. I’d just add to that, they are moving in the right direction. The new stadium is a jewel.

It’s taken a long, long, long time to happen. But Birmingham is finally a good place to be.
09-12-2021 10:40 AM
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Post: #33
RE: AAC Timetable
(09-12-2021 10:04 AM)Cardiff Wrote:  
(09-12-2021 09:39 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(09-12-2021 09:32 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The AAC already knows who has reached out. The big play if available is out west, but I doubt that happens.

My guess is 6 weeks from now you will know at least 2 schools and more than likely 4. Personal opinion Rice would be a terrible add.
any combo of ODU, Marshall, Buffalo, Ga St, UAB, Charlotte, and Maybe a F_U can make sense. Decent sized schools from decent Markets.

My 4, UAB, Marshall, ODU, and either Charlotte or Ga St.

Thanks for the input, it's garbage, and enjoy the B12.
ODU and Charlotte are garbage.

UAB is strong.

Georgia State, Marshall somewhere in between. Georgia State on the same path as Houston and UCF, but that’s still a decade away.

Gee thanks for the vote of approval. 07-coffee3
09-12-2021 12:16 PM
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Cardiff Offline
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Post: #34
RE: AAC Timetable
ODU was on the (mostly) right path until it sat out the 2020 season.

And yeah I know that was not a voluntary decision. But even so, it’s going to hurt you for a long time.
09-12-2021 12:24 PM
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12thmonarch Offline
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RE: AAC Timetable
(09-12-2021 12:24 PM)Cardiff Wrote:  ODU was on the (mostly) right path until it sat out the 2020 season.

And yeah I know that was not a voluntary decision. But even so, it’s going to hurt you for a long time.

No sitting out 2020 isn't what hurt our program although it added complexity to the recovery efforts. What hurt us bad was the decision to continue with an FCS coach who is terrible at FBS level for 2 long horrible years after the signs of trouble started showing during which his only accomplishment was an upset of VT at home. They should've cut his ass back in 2018 which they didn't and now we are seeing the lingering effects. Don't worry about us though we will be fine going forward.
09-12-2021 12:30 PM
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Post: #36
RE: AAC Timetable
As much as it pains me to say it, App State is the most consistent and strongest football in NC. They have commitment and are use to winning no matter the level. If they get more money coming in, they will only improve and build more seats into Kidd-Brewer. Know many from Raleigh that make the trips to the Boone when they play.
09-12-2021 02:11 PM
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gulfcoastgal Offline
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Post: #37
RE: AAC Timetable
(09-12-2021 02:11 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  As much as it pains me to say it, App State is the most consistent and strongest football in NC. They have commitment and are use to winning no matter the level. If they get more money coming in, they will only improve and build more seats into Kidd-Brewer. Know many from Raleigh that make the trips to the Boone when they play.
Agree, I think that’s one program that could really benefit from AAC membership…$, exposure and brand building.
09-12-2021 02:21 PM
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Post: #38
RE: AAC Timetable
(09-12-2021 12:30 PM)12thmonarch Wrote:  No sitting out 2020 isn't what hurt our program although it added complexity to the recovery efforts.
Disagree. I think that’s going to leave a deep bruise on your credibility with potential recruits and coaches for a long time. But hey, we’ll see.


Quote:What hurt us bad was the decision to continue with an FCS coach who is terrible at FBS level for 2 long horrible years after the signs of trouble started showing during which his only accomplishment was an upset of VT at home. They should've cut his ass back in 2018 which they didn't and now we are seeing the lingering effects. Don't worry about us though we will be fine going forward.
Keeping the FCS coach for too long hurt, too. I don’t deny it.
09-12-2021 02:35 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #39
RE: AAC Timetable
Ask Statefan if it’s good for UNC to have UNCC or App State join the American.
09-12-2021 03:09 PM
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Post: #40
RE: AAC Timetable
(09-11-2021 03:53 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Schools leaving the MWC or CUSA can pretty much exit the very next July 1st from when they announce.

The schools joining the Big 12 are scheduled for 2024, but could move up to 2023; 2023 is the earliest the Big 12 is able to take them and when BYU joins. Power conferences sometimes need more lead time, especially with football commitments.

So the American has about 17 months. They could bring one school in early, in the next 5 months, to start next fall, which would make sense if it's Boise State, as that does not derail or force any other additions, giving them time to figure out the configuration they want.

At least two schools need to start by 2023 if as expected the Big 12 bound schools leave the in 2023. If they stay until 2024 (I think unlikely) then they actually have 29 months to find one or more likely three additional schools. But the key is the first one, and they can act relatively quickly if it's the right school.

The rumors are still that the SEC and Big 12 expansions happen in 2022. AAC needs to move quickly. Even if its 2023, they need to get it set in the next few months.
09-12-2021 03:10 PM
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