(09-10-2021 06:50 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  What about Ohio and Rice

Can't speak on Rice but as an Ohio donor what I've always heard is they were only willing to leave the MAC in a pairing with Marshall and 2-3 other MAC schools.

There is a new AD however from the SEC (Arkansas) and has signed a series with WVU to have them play in Athens. WVU has long had a policy not to play any MAC schools on the road in FB so the fact they are playing Ohio which is only 2 hours away from Morgantown is curious. Perhaps we won't be staying in the MAC.

But what would fit our criteria? A CUSA east split with MAC additions? A10 FBS league? Expanding the MAC with Marshall and a 14th like JMU makes the most overall sense.

AAC membership is scary because the XII could expand to become the XIV and take more programs. You can get to a point where you lose control of your situation like Temple in the AAC or UTEP in CUSA where you end up stuck in a non-regional conference.

Now if the AAC wanted to commit to the Midwest and bring in St. Louis, Dayton in basketball along with Ohio/Buffalo in FB that might be different. Focus the expansion on basketball rather than FB to try and be a 3 bid league. That is what Ohio wants if its going to move, a 2-3 bid basketball conference. Level of football is less of a consideration.

(09-10-2021 11:46 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  The minimal response from the American would be to add just UAB and AFA.

UAB, Rice, Marshall

The best move would be to get the best 8 MW teams to move to the AAC as the AAC "West" division. These would obviously be "all sports" invites. You'd grab Gonzaga and you have the first coast to coast nationwide conference. It would dominate the G5 access slot and be a pretty darn good basketball conference. However, I see little motivation for the MW teams to do that at this point. The MW could do something similar by taking Memphis, SMU, and Wichita from the AAC. Then layer on Gonzaga who just lost their only real competition in the WWC.

The problem is there is little reason for any MW or AAC school pay exit and entry fees for a jump to another G5 conference until 2025. Thats when they all the P5 TV deals will be done and they can be reasonably sure there wont be any other opportunities to be plucked by a P5 conference. Only then would it make sense to consider G5 conference moves that might be more advantageous in the new 12-team CFP era. The only teams that might be interested in changing G5 conferences prior to 2025 are those with little chance of being called up to a P5 in this round of realignment. These teams will simply be looking for the best place to develop into a school that might get to move to a P5 in future rounds of realignment.

Thus, what we may see is the AAC explore some big ambitious moves---but ultimately settle on a small eastern based rebuild with just 2 to 4 teams. Staying at just 10 to 12 allows some degree of security---while leaving substantial flexibility for future options (especially considering they still may lose one or two more). UAB will be one of the additions. I suspect Navy will get a lot of input on who replaces Houston in the west. And that might be it for now. It actually makes a lot of sense to stop at 10 to leave maximum flexibility going into 2025. Yes, some will like stopping at 10 because it minimizes the dilution of the TV deal---but I dont think thats why its a good idea. It think its a good idea because a lot of really good realignment options wont be on the table until we get to 2025 and eliminate some uncertainty. By 2025 teams will know whether they are going to get a call up to the P5 this round, they will have a better idea what the future CFP is going to look like, and they will know a lot more about the future form NCAA/NIL governance/autonomy will take.

(09-10-2021 09:36 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(09-10-2021 11:46 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  The minimal response from the American would be to add just UAB and AFA.

UAB, Rice, Marshall

Looking at budgets and stadium sizes, I'm more inclined to think AAC takes at least 2 of these 3 and all 3 if they go to 4. And they work real hard on Army. Not sure who would be #4. Buffalo? A bunch of these schools seat only a little over 20k. AAC is not going to take them.

(09-10-2021 09:32 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(09-10-2021 06:50 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  What about Ohio and Rice

Can't speak on Rice but as an Ohio donor what I've always heard is they were only willing to leave the MAC in a pairing with Marshall and 2-3 other MAC schools.

There is a new AD however from the SEC (Arkansas) and has signed a series with WVU to have them play in Athens. WVU has long had a policy not to play any MAC schools on the road in FB so the fact they are playing Ohio which is only 2 hours away from Morgantown is curious. Perhaps we won't be staying in the MAC.

But what would fit our criteria? A CUSA east split with MAC additions? A10 FBS league? Expanding the MAC with Marshall and a 14th like JMU makes the most overall sense.

AAC membership is scary because the XII could expand to become the XIV and take more programs. You can get to a point where you lose control of your situation like Temple in the AAC or UTEP in CUSA where you end up stuck in a non-regional conference.

Now if the AAC wanted to commit to the Midwest and bring in St. Louis, Dayton in basketball along with Ohio/Buffalo in FB that might be different. Focus the expansion on basketball rather than FB to try and be a 3 bid league. That is what Ohio wants if its going to move, a 2-3 bid basketball conference. Level of football is less of a consideration.

No dog in this fight for me any longer with UC heading to the Big 12, but I think the Bobcats would be a GREAT fit. Large student body, gorgeous campus, and some decent history, especially in hoops. Plus, the Marching 110 and Jackie O's beer. I'm sold.

(09-10-2021 10:33 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The best move would be to get the best 8 MW teams to move to the AAC as the AAC "West" division. These would obviously be "all sports" invites. You'd grab Gonzaga and you have the first coast to coast nationwide conference. It would dominate the G5 access slot and be a pretty darn good basketball conference. However, I see little motivation for the MW teams to do that at this point. The MW could do something similar by taking Memphis, SMU, and Wichita from the AAC. Then layer on Gonzaga who just lost their only real competition in the WWC.

The problem is there is little reason for any MW or AAC school pay exit and entry fees for a jump to another G5 conference until 2025. Thats when they all the P5 TV deals will be done and they can be reasonably sure there wont be any other opportunities to be plucked by a P5 conference. Only then would it make sense to consider G5 conference moves that might be more advantageous in the new 12-team CFP era. The only teams that might be interested in changing G5 conferences prior to 2025 are those with little chance of being called up to a P5 in this round of realignment. These teams will simply be looking for the best place to develop into a school that might get to move to a P5 in future rounds of realignment.

Thus, what we may see is the AAC explore some big ambitious moves---but ultimately settle on a small eastern based rebuild with just 2 to 4 teams. Staying at just 10 to 12 allows some degree of security---while leaving substantial flexibility for future options (especially considering they still may lose one or two more). UAB will be one of the additions. I suspect Navy will get a lot of input on who replaces Houston in the west. And that might be it for now. It actually makes a lot of sense to stop at 10 to leave maximum flexibility going into 2025. Yes, some will like stopping at 10 because it minimizes the dilution of the TV deal---but I dont think thats why its a good idea. It think its a good idea because a lot of really good realignment options wont be on the table until we get to 2025 and eliminate some uncertainty. By 2025 teams will know whether they are going to get a call up to the P5 this round, they will have a better idea what the future CFP is going to look like, and they will know a lot more about the future form NCAA/NIL governance/autonomy will take.

Half the problem is the XII is growing to 14 teams and plans on staying there with another expansion with Boise, USF, Memphis, SMU.

In light of that its going to be difficult to find programs that want to jump into the AAC cesspool. UAB will do it as they don't have better options but why would Boise do it if in only a year or two they could be looking at the XII?

(09-10-2021 09:32 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(09-10-2021 06:50 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  What about Ohio and Rice

Can't speak on Rice but as an Ohio donor what I've always heard is they were only willing to leave the MAC in a pairing with Marshall and 2-3 other MAC schools.

There is a new AD however from the SEC (Arkansas) and has signed a series with WVU to have them play in Athens. WVU has long had a policy not to play any MAC schools on the road in FB so the fact they are playing Ohio which is only 2 hours away from Morgantown is curious. Perhaps we won't be staying in the MAC.

But what would fit our criteria? A CUSA east split with MAC additions? A10 FBS league? Expanding the MAC with Marshall and a 14th like JMU makes the most overall sense.

AAC membership is scary because the XII could expand to become the XIV and take more programs. You can get to a point where you lose control of your situation like Temple in the AAC or UTEP in CUSA where you end up stuck in a non-regional conference.

Now if the AAC wanted to commit to the Midwest and bring in St. Louis, Dayton in basketball along with Ohio/Buffalo in FB that might be different. Focus the expansion on basketball rather than FB to try and be a 3 bid league. That is what Ohio wants if its going to move, a 2-3 bid basketball conference. Level of football is less of a consideration.

I would love to see Ohio and Toledo back in a conference with Marshall. Not really interested in anyone else to be honest.

I don't see much in the AAC for any Mountain West teams, except Boise who is all over the place with where they think they fit/want to be. The idea that a depleted AAC is a highly sought after dream destination conference for teams that are already in an equivalent situation is very mysterious to me.

But as an NMSU Aggie fan, a few teams leaving could help us get into the Mountain West. And any teams that leave are likely to come back after the inevitable failure of the AAC to ever be more than it is. Maybe a temporary AAC fling by a few teams would benefit us.

(09-10-2021 09:24 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  Army
Boise State
Air Force Academy
UAB

What does UAB actually offer?
Mundane academics, average athletics, and in a sub average city.

What does Boise actually offer?
Below mundane academics, below average athletics in sports other than football. Over the past few years fading even in football, a well below average city and a false sense of pride which has persuaded them that they deserve more money than any other university in the conference. They have blustered and forced a significant step up in their conference payout over all other members of their pathetic conference.

These are two sad puppies in minor league college sports. Why should they move up?

Now Air Force and Army are completely different and they bring a truly national audience.