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McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
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JSchmack Offline
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Post: #81
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-10-2021 12:41 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  Six is the minimum so Sun Belt is getting six vs CUSA 8. Looked it up the value of a unit was $282,100 in 2020. So CUSA is earning $564,100 more in NCAA units. Sun Belt made $1.5 million to $3 million more than CUSA in four of the past five years in CFP money. That easily offsets the difference in units and split 10 ways instead of 14

Six isn't the minimum right now. It's temporarily five. Because there was no NCAA Tournament in 2020, no units were awarded, so the six-year rolling share is missing a unit for everyone.

And I'm not sure about that dollar value vs what it is going forward, because there was no tournament in 2020. So that amount could be what they paid out for the previous units earned on the six-year rolling payment structure from their emergency fund?

Any way you slice it, you're talking about a 14-way split or 12-way split of less than $10 million total dollars, which means the money isn't so great that you couldn't overcome it to form a new league that leads to more money down the road by ditching smaller market or underperforming members.
(This post was last modified: 09-10-2021 12:46 PM by JSchmack.)
09-10-2021 12:40 PM
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ESE84 Offline
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Post: #82
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-10-2021 10:51 AM)Bogg Wrote:  CUSA could be in for an uncomfortable year if the MW decides to move into Texas at the same time the AAC needs 4 and the SB is actively looking to add 2.

This might actually happen. I would hate to be one of 4 or 5 schools left in C-USA if the MWC starts acquiring central time zone schools.
09-10-2021 12:47 PM
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Post: #83
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-10-2021 12:47 PM)ESE84 Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 10:51 AM)Bogg Wrote:  CUSA could be in for an uncomfortable year if the MW decides to move into Texas at the same time the AAC needs 4 and the SB is actively looking to add 2.

This might actually happen. I would hate to be one of 4 or 5 schools left in C-USA if the MWC starts acquiring central time zone schools.

WAC FB call-ups!
09-10-2021 12:54 PM
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JSchmack Offline
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Post: #84
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
No disrespect to anyone's schools, because I think North Texas and UTSA have value in the conference realignment game. But those four Texas programs the last eight years, have football win pcts of .455, .426, .366 and .247. The MWC wants that why?

C-USA is going to be just fine. And here's why... everyone wants the major markets for their conference TV negotiations.

C-USA schools in Top 70 metro areas in football the last 8 years: 278-430 (.393)
C-USA schools outside the top 70 metro areas: 335-260 (.563)

The teams getting left behind in C-USA either have their market to help them get back in the game; or they're just better at football than teams in good markets, like the top six of the Sun Belt!
09-10-2021 01:59 PM
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Post: #85
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-09-2021 09:32 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  This is called the panic period of realignment.

Texas and OU are out the door.

Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF have forced the AAC to raid C-USA.

The Sun Belt know that C-USA is going to raid them next and they are trying to beat C-USA to the punch, by tempting a few key programs into jumping conferences, and shifting the balance of power.

I won't work. C-USA is still a the better overall conference. And any C-USA program the Belt would target knows it.

Nobody in the SBC wants to go to CUSA. Multiple CUSA schools have been in contact with the SBC and it's members though.
09-10-2021 02:01 PM
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Post: #86
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-10-2021 02:01 PM)JTApps1 Wrote:  Nobody in the SBC wants to go to CUSA. Multiple CUSA schools have been in contact with the SBC and it's members though.

Honestly, the worst case scenario for the Sun Belt is if the AAC poaches CUSA members from the "best markets."

Because those are the teams that are dragging down the C-USA performance, and the remainder of C-USA actually looks better than the Sun Belt, making a two-team raid of the SBC attractive to the invitees. And if that's App St and Coastal... that's very bad for the SBC.

But you're an App St fan.. so not sure what you should root for.
09-10-2021 02:09 PM
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Post: #87
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-10-2021 08:12 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 07:47 AM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 07:22 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  If I had to guess the main candidates for the Sun Belt, would saying they are Marshall, Southern Miss, JMU, Liberty, and ODU be fair in that order (assuming UAB goes to AAC)?
This is pretty spot on.

CUSA has historically been a selective conference. They'll pull from the SBC again though certain programs won't move.

There is also the possibility of CUSA just inviting JMU to go with Marshall/ODU and if that happens all 3 will stay in CUSA.

Selective. They took ODU, UTSA, and Charlotte before any had played a down as an FBS school. They took some teams struggling in Sun Belt. Selective is an interesting choice of word.
09-10-2021 02:32 PM
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RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-10-2021 01:59 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  No disrespect to anyone's schools, because I think North Texas and UTSA have value in the conference realignment game. But those four Texas programs the last eight years, have football win pcts of .455, .426, .366 and .247. The MWC wants that why?

C-USA is going to be just fine. And here's why... everyone wants the major markets for their conference TV negotiations.

C-USA schools in Top 70 metro areas in football the last 8 years: 278-430 (.393)
C-USA schools outside the top 70 metro areas: 335-260 (.563)

The teams getting left behind in C-USA either have their market to help them get back in the game; or they're just better at football than teams in good markets, like the top six of the Sun Belt!

Last TV negotiation Fox walked from CUSA without making an offer. CUSA games have been scrambled across multiple platforms ranging from NFL Network to Facebook to the infamous CUSA TV. You sure the markets are of interest to TV?
09-10-2021 02:37 PM
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Post: #89
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-10-2021 02:32 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 08:12 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 07:47 AM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 07:22 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  If I had to guess the main candidates for the Sun Belt, would saying they are Marshall, Southern Miss, JMU, Liberty, and ODU be fair in that order (assuming UAB goes to AAC)?
This is pretty spot on.

CUSA has historically been a selective conference. They'll pull from the SBC again though certain programs won't move.

There is also the possibility of CUSA just inviting JMU to go with Marshall/ODU and if that happens all 3 will stay in CUSA.

Selective. They took ODU, UTSA, and Charlotte before any had played a down as an FBS school. They took some teams struggling in Sun Belt. Selective is an interesting choice of word.

CUSA though hand picked its membership.

SBC cobbled together whatever FB independents it could find including Idaho/NMSU. It was a bottom of the barrel approach until recently when it ditch those two and became selective by taking in Coastal.

At this point it could be the tide had shifted enough and they have the wind of ESPN at their back.
09-10-2021 02:38 PM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #90
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-10-2021 10:43 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 08:06 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(09-09-2021 11:56 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(09-09-2021 09:18 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(09-09-2021 09:14 PM)bullet Wrote:  This rates up there with the story about the AAC aggressively pursuing Big 12 teams.

We all know how that turned out.

I mean not really, since I think the Sun Belt might make more in TV revenue than C-USA, or at the very least the difference is so close it's not even worth distinguishing. I don't really think there's much point in schools from either league moving from one to the other, but maybe if the AAC took 2 C-USA members that would tip the balance toward the Sun-Belt.

Sun Belt has taken home more CFP money four of the past five seasons than CUSA by placing higher in the rankings used for performance money and has signed an extension with ESPN that increases appearance on linear TV both weeknight and Saturday appearances

Not that this is going to happen, but for me if there were some scenario where enough teams left the AAC to dissolve it and ECU had to join another league I'd want it to be the Sun-Belt at this point. I feel like there's at least an identity and cohesion to the Sun-Belt, and the schools for the most part make sense to be in a league together.

I don't remember way back when but didn't ECU push for ODU and CLT to be added to the C-USA? Would they not want to go back with those schools? I would love ECU in the Belt if AAC dissolved.

ECU pushed hard for ODU. Charlotte wasn't really ECU's idea. From everything I've heard as a founding member of C-USA they were always told if they ever started football they'd get serious consideration. Sadly ODU hasn't come close to living up to what I thought they could be when added. AAC won't dissolve though there's way too much buyout money to give that up. Gonna be looking at like 50 million or so once the 3 negotiate their likely early exits, that's probably worth more than the entire C-USA TV deal combined.
09-10-2021 02:38 PM
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Post: #91
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
Iirc, Charlotte leaned on Tulane pretty hard to help them get back in?
09-10-2021 02:44 PM
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RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-10-2021 02:38 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 10:43 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 08:06 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(09-09-2021 11:56 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(09-09-2021 09:18 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  I mean not really, since I think the Sun Belt might make more in TV revenue than C-USA, or at the very least the difference is so close it's not even worth distinguishing. I don't really think there's much point in schools from either league moving from one to the other, but maybe if the AAC took 2 C-USA members that would tip the balance toward the Sun-Belt.

Sun Belt has taken home more CFP money four of the past five seasons than CUSA by placing higher in the rankings used for performance money and has signed an extension with ESPN that increases appearance on linear TV both weeknight and Saturday appearances

Not that this is going to happen, but for me if there were some scenario where enough teams left the AAC to dissolve it and ECU had to join another league I'd want it to be the Sun-Belt at this point. I feel like there's at least an identity and cohesion to the Sun-Belt, and the schools for the most part make sense to be in a league together.

I don't remember way back when but didn't ECU push for ODU and CLT to be added to the C-USA? Would they not want to go back with those schools? I would love ECU in the Belt if AAC dissolved.

ECU pushed hard for ODU. Charlotte wasn't really ECU's idea. From everything I've heard as a founding member of C-USA they were always told if they ever started football they'd get serious consideration. Sadly ODU hasn't come close to living up to what I thought they could be when added. AAC won't dissolve though there's way too much buyout money to give that up. Gonna be looking at like 50 million or so once the 3 negotiate their likely early exits, that's probably worth more than the entire C-USA TV deal combined.
AAC will live on. The brands remaining are ones that other G5 schools WANT to align with at least G5’s in Eastern and Central time zones.
09-10-2021 02:46 PM
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Post: #93
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-10-2021 02:46 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 02:38 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 10:43 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 08:06 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(09-09-2021 11:56 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Sun Belt has taken home more CFP money four of the past five seasons than CUSA by placing higher in the rankings used for performance money and has signed an extension with ESPN that increases appearance on linear TV both weeknight and Saturday appearances

Not that this is going to happen, but for me if there were some scenario where enough teams left the AAC to dissolve it and ECU had to join another league I'd want it to be the Sun-Belt at this point. I feel like there's at least an identity and cohesion to the Sun-Belt, and the schools for the most part make sense to be in a league together.

I don't remember way back when but didn't ECU push for ODU and CLT to be added to the C-USA? Would they not want to go back with those schools? I would love ECU in the Belt if AAC dissolved.

ECU pushed hard for ODU. Charlotte wasn't really ECU's idea. From everything I've heard as a founding member of C-USA they were always told if they ever started football they'd get serious consideration. Sadly ODU hasn't come close to living up to what I thought they could be when added. AAC won't dissolve though there's way too much buyout money to give that up. Gonna be looking at like 50 million or so once the 3 negotiate their likely early exits, that's probably worth more than the entire C-USA TV deal combined.
AAC will live on. The brands remaining are ones that other G5 schools WANT to align with at least G5’s in Eastern and Central time zones.

Everyone pretending it won't live on are living in the same dream world where the AAC actually was going to raid the B12. No one is paying over 10 million to join the MWC (who could end up losing Boise soon anyway). The question is does Aresco just reconstitute C-USA 2.0 or do they come up with something more interesting?
09-10-2021 02:48 PM
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Post: #94
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-10-2021 02:37 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Last TV negotiation Fox walked from CUSA without making an offer. CUSA games have been scrambled across multiple platforms ranging from NFL Network to Facebook to the infamous CUSA TV. You sure the markets are of interest to TV?

Right, because the football isn't good enough to bring the markets in those places. But the top half is going to be the same in either league -- the best of one will join the other.

And that group of top C-USA and SBC football programs are going to be better off picking the big market bottom feeders than the small market bottom feeders.

It probably won't amount to much difference, but if that group going forward keeps getting better, it's more likely to pay dividends with the markets than with smaller towns.
09-10-2021 03:54 PM
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RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-10-2021 02:44 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Iirc, Charlotte leaned on Tulane pretty hard to help them get back in?

That's possible... you mean to get back into C-USA in the 2013 realignment?

The hardest part of remembering that stuff is that it comes down less to the school name, but the relationships individual people have.

The President and AD of Tulane back in 2013 were still people the Charlotte admin would have relationships with from the first C-USA tenure.

But Charlotte calling Tulane NOW and saying "Hey, help us get into the AAC" probably won't be as effective because Tulane has a new AD and President, and they may not know the Charlotte people at all.

Relationships matter.
09-10-2021 04:04 PM
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RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-10-2021 01:59 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  No disrespect to anyone's schools, because I think North Texas and UTSA have value in the conference realignment game. But those four Texas programs the last eight years, have football win pcts of .455, .426, .366 and .247. The MWC wants that why?

C-USA is going to be just fine. And here's why... everyone wants the major markets for their conference TV negotiations.

C-USA schools in Top 70 metro areas in football the last 8 years: 278-430 (.393)
C-USA schools outside the top 70 metro areas: 335-260 (.563)

The teams getting left behind in C-USA either have their market to help them get back in the game; or they're just better at football than teams in good markets, like the top six of the Sun Belt!

CUSA picked markets and budget. If you looked at budgets in the Sun Belt they went straight down the list. They did not pick on football success. Otherwise Troy and Arkansas St. would have been picked.
09-10-2021 05:20 PM
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Post: #97
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-10-2021 03:54 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 02:37 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Last TV negotiation Fox walked from CUSA without making an offer. CUSA games have been scrambled across multiple platforms ranging from NFL Network to Facebook to the infamous CUSA TV. You sure the markets are of interest to TV?

Right, because the football isn't good enough to bring the markets in those places. But the top half is going to be the same in either league -- the best of one will join the other.

And that group of top C-USA and SBC football programs are going to be better off picking the big market bottom feeders than the small market bottom feeders.

It probably won't amount to much difference, but if that group going forward keeps getting better, it's more likely to pay dividends with the markets than with smaller towns.

Sun Belt got a bigger better TV deal, and then a raise and extension because of what small market Arkansas State, Louisiana, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia Southern have done or because of what larger market Georgia State and Texas State have done?
09-10-2021 05:22 PM
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Post: #98
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-10-2021 02:09 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 02:01 PM)JTApps1 Wrote:  Nobody in the SBC wants to go to CUSA. Multiple CUSA schools have been in contact with the SBC and it's members though.

Honestly, the worst case scenario for the Sun Belt is if the AAC poaches CUSA members from the "best markets."

Because those are the teams that are dragging down the C-USA performance, and the remainder of C-USA actually looks better than the Sun Belt, making a two-team raid of the SBC attractive to the invitees. And if that's App St and Coastal... that's very bad for the SBC.

But you're an App St fan.. so not sure what you should root for.

Watch the SB take Marshall & ODU while the AAC takes Charlotte, GA State & UAB. SB backfills GA state spot with USM. The SB becomes one of the top 2 G5 football conferences and Aresco gets his basketball schools in big markets. Two of which (Charlotte & GA State) have zero local appeal. Next year the Big XII comes calling again and takes Memphis & USF. The Mtn West poaches SMU & Tulsa. The AAC either goes after more CUSA basketball schools like WKU & MTSU to survive and deals a death nail to CUSA ior simply goes away leaving ECU, Temple & Tulane standing on the street corner holding a homeless sign.
09-10-2021 05:28 PM
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RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-10-2021 05:22 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Sun Belt got a bigger better TV deal, and then a raise and extension because of what small market Arkansas State, Louisiana, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia Southern have done or because of what larger market Georgia State and Texas State have done?

I honestly don't know exactly what the Sun Belt media terms are; mostly because I'm a basketball guy who thinks that low level FBS football and all FCS football is a fools errand.

But if you wanna share with me the numbers of the contracts, and also the dates of the contract term, that'd be awesome.

I spent another thread trying to explain money vs time to people.

And I also think that there's a diminishing returns principle as well. The college sports TV deals don't always fall along the lines of a relative value. They fall along a pragmatic approach by the network.

It's basically the In-N-Out theory. You know how people out west talk about how great In-N-Out is, and everyone else says that Five Guys is a better burger? Five Guys IS a better burger, but it also costs me $12 bucks to eat there, and I can get THREE double-doubles, fries and a shake at In-N-Out for like $12. In-N-Out is by far the better value.

There is far less bang for the buck in C-USA TV rights. They don't win enough to pay them for their markets. The market value of SBC rights is totally what someone is willing to pay.

The BRAND on the jersey isn't strong enough for people to tune in regardless of their record. People are watching C-USA football or SBC football because of STAKES. It's 1 vs 2 in each conference that's the marquee game to TV.

If you have to pay Charlotte, Houston, Dallas, Hampton Roads prices for CUSA 1-vs-2, but only pay Atlanta, Mobile, San Marcos prices for SCB 1-vs-2... the choice is simple for ESPN: Sun Belt.


Again, in everything I say, I'm a pragmatist, I don't want to sound like I'm bricking on the chest of any school or fan base. My school is never getting into the Big East because we're in a town of 16,000. Even if our fan base is a cult that lives everywhere else but that town. I just like really analytical discussions, and over-intellectualizing things, and sports
(This post was last modified: 09-10-2021 05:52 PM by JSchmack.)
09-10-2021 05:49 PM
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Post: #100
RE: McMurphy: Sun Belt Aggressively Pursuing New Members
(09-10-2021 05:49 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  
(09-10-2021 05:22 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Sun Belt got a bigger better TV deal, and then a raise and extension because of what small market Arkansas State, Louisiana, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia Southern have done or because of what larger market Georgia State and Texas State have done?

I honestly don't know exactly what the Sun Belt media terms are; mostly because I'm a basketball guy who thinks that low level FBS football and all FCS football is a fools errand.

But if you wanna share with me the numbers of the contracts, and also the dates of the contract term, that'd be awesome.

I spent another thread trying to explain money vs time to people.

And I also think that there's a diminishing returns principle as well. The college sports TV deals don't always fall along the lines of a relative value. They fall along a pragmatic approach by the network.

It's basically the In-N-Out theory. You know how people out west talk about how great In-N-Out is, and everyone else says that Five Guys is a better burger? Five Guys IS a better burger, but it also costs me $12 bucks to eat there, and I can get THREE double-doubles, fries and a shake at In-N-Out for like $12. In-N-Out is by far the better value.

There is far less bang for the buck in C-USA TV rights. They don't win enough to pay them for their markets. The market value of SBC rights is totally what someone is willing to pay.

The BRAND on the jersey isn't strong enough for people to tune in regardless of their record. People are watching C-USA football or SBC football because of STAKES. It's 1 vs 2 in each conference that's the marquee game to TV.

If you have to pay Charlotte, Houston, Dallas, Hampton Roads prices for CUSA 1-vs-2, but only pay Atlanta, Mobile, San Marcos prices for SCB 1-vs-2... the choice is simple for ESPN: Sun Belt.


Again, in everything I say, I'm a pragmatist, I don't want to sound like I'm bricking on the chest of any school or fan base. My school is never getting into the Big East because we're in a town of 16,000. Even if our fan base is a cult that lives everywhere else but that town. I just like really analytical discussions, and over-intellectualizing things, and sports
You are paying Austin prices for TSU-SM. It's less than 30 miles to downtown Austin.
09-10-2021 06:21 PM
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