(09-09-2021 04:07 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  I don't think you will see MWC teams going to the AAC. The MWC will be the stronger of the two when the three teams leave.

They won't be stronger, but they won't be weaker either. They will be peer conferences in which little is to be gained by members of either of them to move to the other. And there isn't a large universe of schools outside them that dramatically improve either of them athletically, so there will likely be some fine tuning but nothing terribly dramatic.

(09-09-2021 05:48 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:39 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:28 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  MW teams arent moving to the AAC. I guarantee it.

I think ESPN wants to get the top programs from the MWC like Boise and San Diego St back in the fold and away from Fox. I think it happens pretty quickly.

It wouldn’t make economic sense for ESPN to pony up more money to finance the rebuilding of a badly diminished AAC when instead it could slash its investment in the AAC and reallocate the savings to its bid to retain the Big 12’s TV rights. IMHO the news that “industry sources” have told the new Big 12 it will earn $20-$25M per member with its new lineup is final confirmation that the remaining AAC members will be taking a substantial pay cut.

Top programs from the MWC weren’t interested in joining the AAC with its $7M per member deal. It’s hard to imagine them changing horses when the AAC deal is reduced to $4M per member.

Well the new Big 12 at 20-25 M is a huge drop off.

I think ESPN makes it worth it to get it done. They can't be stuck with no west coast games if they were to lose the Pac 12 in 3 years.

(09-09-2021 05:56 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 05:48 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:39 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:28 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  MW teams arent moving to the AAC. I guarantee it.

I think ESPN wants to get the top programs from the MWC like Boise and San Diego St back in the fold and away from Fox. I think it happens pretty quickly.

It wouldn’t make economic sense for ESPN to pony up more money to finance the rebuilding of a badly diminished AAC when instead it could slash its investment in the AAC and reallocate the savings to its bid to retain the Big 12’s TV rights. IMHO the news that “industry sources” have told the new Big 12 it will earn $20-$25M per member with its new lineup is final confirmation that the remaining AAC members will be taking a substantial pay cut.

Top programs from the MWC weren’t interested in joining the AAC with its $7M per member deal. It’s hard to imagine them changing horses when the AAC deal is reduced to $4M per member.

Well the new Big 12 at 20-25 M is a huge drop off.

I think ESPN makes it worth it to get it done. They can't be stuck with no west coast games if they were to lose the Pac 12 in 3 years.

Your argument boils down to ESPN being willing to substantially overpay for combined AAC-MWC content solely as a hedge against being completely shut out of the next Pac-12 deal. I think that’s a stretch. If ESPN was really worried about that scenario they would have tried harder last year to retain a share of MWC rights.

(09-09-2021 06:13 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 05:56 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 05:48 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:39 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:28 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  MW teams arent moving to the AAC. I guarantee it.

I think ESPN wants to get the top programs from the MWC like Boise and San Diego St back in the fold and away from Fox. I think it happens pretty quickly.

It wouldn’t make economic sense for ESPN to pony up more money to finance the rebuilding of a badly diminished AAC when instead it could slash its investment in the AAC and reallocate the savings to its bid to retain the Big 12’s TV rights. IMHO the news that “industry sources” have told the new Big 12 it will earn $20-$25M per member with its new lineup is final confirmation that the remaining AAC members will be taking a substantial pay cut.

Top programs from the MWC weren’t interested in joining the AAC with its $7M per member deal. It’s hard to imagine them changing horses when the AAC deal is reduced to $4M per member.

Well the new Big 12 at 20-25 M is a huge drop off.

I think ESPN makes it worth it to get it done. They can't be stuck with no west coast games if they were to lose the Pac 12 in 3 years.

Your argument boils down to ESPN being willing to substantially overpay for combined AAC-MWC content solely as a hedge against being completely shut out of the next Pac-12 deal. I think that’s a stretch. If ESPN was really worried about that scenario they would have tried harder last year to retain a share of MWC rights.

I think ESPN feels like they can pluck the best of the MWC which is about 2-3 teams and not have all the dreck that is a lot of that conference.

(09-09-2021 06:40 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 06:13 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 05:56 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 05:48 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:39 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think ESPN wants to get the top programs from the MWC like Boise and San Diego St back in the fold and away from Fox. I think it happens pretty quickly.

It wouldn’t make economic sense for ESPN to pony up more money to finance the rebuilding of a badly diminished AAC when instead it could slash its investment in the AAC and reallocate the savings to its bid to retain the Big 12’s TV rights. IMHO the news that “industry sources” have told the new Big 12 it will earn $20-$25M per member with its new lineup is final confirmation that the remaining AAC members will be taking a substantial pay cut.

Top programs from the MWC weren’t interested in joining the AAC with its $7M per member deal. It’s hard to imagine them changing horses when the AAC deal is reduced to $4M per member.

Well the new Big 12 at 20-25 M is a huge drop off.

I think ESPN makes it worth it to get it done. They can't be stuck with no west coast games if they were to lose the Pac 12 in 3 years.

Your argument boils down to ESPN being willing to substantially overpay for combined AAC-MWC content solely as a hedge against being completely shut out of the next Pac-12 deal. I think that’s a stretch. If ESPN was really worried about that scenario they would have tried harder last year to retain a share of MWC rights.

I think ESPN feels like they can pluck the best of the MWC which is about 2-3 teams and not have all the dreck that is a lot of that conference.

Are you referring to the “dreck” that beat two Pac-12 teams last weekend? Or perhaps the “dreck” that took down Big-12 bound BYU and Houston in 2019 and 2020 bowl games? Just asking since I didn’t see Nevada, Utah State or Hawaii in your projected new AAC lineup.

(09-09-2021 04:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:45 PM)Claw Wrote:  I don't think the MW wants to move east, and I don't think the AAC wants to move west. A scheduling agreement might happen, but no more. ESPN doesn't always get what it wants.

UAB and Rice to AAC. The last one? I don't know.

I think the AAC wants to keep the same money they've been getting. To get that they have to do what ESPN wants. The MWC only hope IMO is Fox willing to up their money to stave off ESPN.

Of course the AAC wants to keep the same money they've been getting. The question is why would ESPN want to keep paying the AAC the same amount of money.

The AAC couldn't get Boise State, San Diego State etc., when it had UConn, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF. Heck, it couldn't get them when they had Louisville, Rutgers and the C7. So how will the AAC get them when they only have SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, Memphis, ECU, Temple and USF.

ESPN has long used the AAC as a way to own valuable content for cheap price. They add a few C-USA programs and continue having a lot of content for ESPN+.

(09-09-2021 05:48 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:39 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:28 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  MW teams arent moving to the AAC. I guarantee it.

I think ESPN wants to get the top programs from the MWC like Boise and San Diego St back in the fold and away from Fox. I think it happens pretty quickly.

It wouldn’t make economic sense for ESPN to pony up more money to finance the rebuilding of a badly diminished AAC when instead it could slash its investment in the AAC and reallocate the savings to its bid to retain the Big 12’s TV rights. IMHO the news that “industry sources” have told the new Big 12 it will earn $20-$25M per member with its new lineup is final confirmation that the remaining AAC members will be taking a substantial pay cut.

Top programs from the MWC weren’t interested in joining the AAC with its $7M per member deal. It’s hard to imagine them changing horses when the AAC deal is reduced to $4M per member.

Were top MWC programs ever given the option to join the AAC at the new $7/m year rate as a full member with multiple western schools in their division?

(09-09-2021 06:13 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 05:56 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 05:48 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:39 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:28 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  MW teams arent moving to the AAC. I guarantee it.

I think ESPN wants to get the top programs from the MWC like Boise and San Diego St back in the fold and away from Fox. I think it happens pretty quickly.

It wouldn’t make economic sense for ESPN to pony up more money to finance the rebuilding of a badly diminished AAC when instead it could slash its investment in the AAC and reallocate the savings to its bid to retain the Big 12’s TV rights. IMHO the news that “industry sources” have told the new Big 12 it will earn $20-$25M per member with its new lineup is final confirmation that the remaining AAC members will be taking a substantial pay cut.

Top programs from the MWC weren’t interested in joining the AAC with its $7M per member deal. It’s hard to imagine them changing horses when the AAC deal is reduced to $4M per member.

Well the new Big 12 at 20-25 M is a huge drop off.

I think ESPN makes it worth it to get it done. They can't be stuck with no west coast games if they were to lose the Pac 12 in 3 years.

Your argument boils down to ESPN being willing to substantially overpay for combined AAC-MWC content solely as a hedge against being completely shut out of the next Pac-12 deal. I think that’s a stretch. If ESPN was really worried about that scenario they would have tried harder last year to retain a share of MWC rights.

Plus one or two western teams doesn't give that much of an inventory for Pacific/Mountain Time Zone Games.

(09-09-2021 06:56 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 05:48 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:39 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:28 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  MW teams arent moving to the AAC. I guarantee it.

I think ESPN wants to get the top programs from the MWC like Boise and San Diego St back in the fold and away from Fox. I think it happens pretty quickly.

It wouldn’t make economic sense for ESPN to pony up more money to finance the rebuilding of a badly diminished AAC when instead it could slash its investment in the AAC and reallocate the savings to its bid to retain the Big 12’s TV rights. IMHO the news that “industry sources” have told the new Big 12 it will earn $20-$25M per member with its new lineup is final confirmation that the remaining AAC members will be taking a substantial pay cut.

Top programs from the MWC weren’t interested in joining the AAC with its $7M per member deal. It’s hard to imagine them changing horses when the AAC deal is reduced to $4M per member.

Were top MWC programs ever given the option to join the AAC at the new $7/m year rate as a full member with multiple western schools in their division?

Boise had to get a minimum of $6 million for football only. Don’t think that will happen now…or ever from the AAC.

(09-09-2021 04:07 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  I don't think you will see MWC teams going to the AAC. The MWC will be the stronger of the two when the three teams leave.

What ESPN wants it will get in this case. If they want the top of the MWC under their contract, this is the time and place.

(09-09-2021 05:48 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:39 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:28 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  MW teams arent moving to the AAC. I guarantee it.

I think ESPN wants to get the top programs from the MWC like Boise and San Diego St back in the fold and away from Fox. I think it happens pretty quickly.

It wouldn’t make economic sense for ESPN to pony up more money to finance the rebuilding of a badly diminished AAC when instead it could slash its investment in the AAC and reallocate the savings to its bid to retain the Big 12’s TV rights. IMHO the news that “industry sources” have told the new Big 12 it will earn $20-$25M per member with its new lineup is final confirmation that the remaining AAC members will be taking a substantial pay cut.

Top programs from the MWC weren’t interested in joining the AAC with its $7M per member deal. It’s hard to imagine them changing horses when the AAC deal is reduced to $4M per member.

lulz...some of yall are still in disbelief.

(09-09-2021 07:10 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 06:56 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 05:48 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:39 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:28 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  MW teams arent moving to the AAC. I guarantee it.

I think ESPN wants to get the top programs from the MWC like Boise and San Diego St back in the fold and away from Fox. I think it happens pretty quickly.

It wouldn’t make economic sense for ESPN to pony up more money to finance the rebuilding of a badly diminished AAC when instead it could slash its investment in the AAC and reallocate the savings to its bid to retain the Big 12’s TV rights. IMHO the news that “industry sources” have told the new Big 12 it will earn $20-$25M per member with its new lineup is final confirmation that the remaining AAC members will be taking a substantial pay cut.

Top programs from the MWC weren’t interested in joining the AAC with its $7M per member deal. It’s hard to imagine them changing horses when the AAC deal is reduced to $4M per member.

Were top MWC programs ever given the option to join the AAC at the new $7/m year rate as a full member with multiple western schools in their division?

Boise had to get a minimum of $6 million for football only. Don’t think that will happen now…or ever from the AAC.

If I'm ESPN I tell the AAC I'll keep you at $7M/year per team if you get the top MWC teams that are with Fox/CBS

If not you are getting a pay cut

(09-09-2021 04:13 PM)freshtop Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:11 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:07 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  I don't think you will see MWC teams going to the AAC. The MWC will be the stronger of the two when the three teams leave.

That was my initial assessment as well. But with ESPN fully behind the AAC, I think we may see some things we don't expect.

Its certainly possible, but I think it puts ECU, Temple, and USF all on a bit of an island.

I believe USF will eventually move up as well with either SMU or Memphis, most likely Memphis.

That way if you fly your olympic sports to Florida you can get two games in one trip. I'm not sure who #14 will be.

(09-09-2021 05:48 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 04:07 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  I don't think you will see MWC teams going to the AAC. The MWC will be the stronger of the two when the three teams leave.

They won't be stronger, but they won't be weaker either. They will be peer conferences in which little is to be gained by members of either of them to move to the other. And there isn't a large universe of schools outside them that dramatically improve either of them athletically, so there will likely be some fine tuning but nothing terribly dramatic.

I agree with your final observations, but I don't think the MWC vs AAC comparison is even close to being true (referring to the "peer conferences" and "they won't be weaker either" comments).

The AAC is losing their 3 top overall programs, easily their top 2 programs in FB and 3 of their top 5 in BB. That leaves the AAC with no real football power - and a basketball line up of Memphis and Wichita State and very little else. SMU (which is way behind Memphis and Wichita State in BB) was the only other remaining BB program that was over .500 last year. The rest were not just sub .500 in the conference - but overall as well last year - and that result is not much of an anomaly. This is an enormous blow to both revenue sports and the athletic reputation of the conference.

The MWC conference has multiple programs with much better reputations (but really - just having Boise State trumps anything the AAC will have) in FB - and the MWC has 5-7 schools with overall winning percentages in BB the past few years.

True - the MWC doesn't have a Memphis or a Wichita State in BB - but in FB, the AAC doesn't have a Boise State, a SDSU or even a Fresno State.

In FB, the AAC does have Navy (which is better than it used to be) but it is basically the AAC's Air Force in terms of TV attractiveness, FB power etc.

The MWC has 5 state flagship schools (counting Boise State as the athletic flagship in Idaho) and AF, while the AAC has zero state flagships and Navy.

The AAC fortunately has Memphis (a BB traditional power that does well in FB on occasion). But this remaining AAC line-up will not be a FB power by any stretch. I don't know who they add after the dust finally settles from this round of moves, but it seems hard to imagine that they can possibly build back to the status of the current MWC in FB no matter who they get.

None of the C-USA, MAC or SunBelt schools get that much media attention in FB - although I guess Louisiana is having a little sun shine its way lately (enough to get their coach invited somewhere else soon).

I do agree that the MWC stands pat (they didn't get harmed by the Big 12 expansion - other than having their hopes of eventually getting BYU in the fold dashed). But mostly they stand pat because there isn't a single all-sports program in the P5 or independents that's attractive - and reasonably in their footprint - and likely to join (that last bit just the Notre Dame fans - yes, Irish fans, you're an attractive "independent" and attractive enough that the physical distance wouldn't mean the MWC wouldn't want you - but there's no chance you would join them).

If the AAC is going to get back to being a peer with the MWC, they'll have to grow FB and get better depth in BB. The second part being much easier to do than the first part.

Next domino: SEC decides to throw Texas in the SEC West and Oklahoma in the SEC East and keep the divisions (and crossover games) as they are.

Texas and Oklahoma becomes a crossover game.

This won't be a direct East/West split as many believe, and there certainly won't be some "pod system" either.

It is pretty much guaranteed that whomever the AAC picks, their conference average basketball attendance will drop below the MWC

Its not as easy for the next moves.

With the Big 12, with 2 it was going to be 2 of BYU, Houston and Cincinnati. With 4, the only question was whether they would go with the best candidate UCF, or decide the geography wasn't worth it.

AAC refilling is difficult. No clear leaders (other than Army who probably isn't moving).
MWC members moving seems unrealistic.

(09-09-2021 09:30 PM)bullet Wrote:  Its not as easy for the next moves.

With the Big 12, with 2 it was going to be 2 of BYU, Houston and Cincinnati. With 4, the only question was whether they would go with the best candidate UCF, or decide the geography wasn't worth it.

AAC refilling is difficult. No clear leaders (other than Army who probably isn't moving).
MWC members moving seems unrealistic.

Poaching from the MWC actually is easier because there is more room for the AAC to expand.

Previously the AAC was probably thinking BYU/Boise/AFA to 14 was a best case scenario. BYU was the number #1 pick of the MWC and AAC but in the XII is now no longer available.

Now to 14 the AAC could go full on western with SDSU, UNLV, Boise, AFA, CSU, UNM if they wanted. Why would those schools go to the AAC? Partially to get away from the lower tier MWC schools that are dragging the conference down. They can then play the top AAC schools for that 6th playoff spot in the championship game.