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Rank the basketball conferences
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Rank the basketball conferences
If we are using "power" rankings for all conference members from KenPom or similar rankings, then the new team alignments should result in...

1. ACC
2. SEC
3. B1G
4. Big East
5. B12
6. PAC
other conferences aren't close

The SEC has a lot of money and depth. Over the past couple of decades, Texas and Oklahoma have been the second and third best basketball programs per KenPom in the B12. Conversely, the B1G can have a few teams (e.g., Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Rutgers) that are irrelevant for years/decades at a time.


If we are using NCAA tournament bids and performance (i.e., how strong is the upper half of each conference), then the new alignments should result in...

1. ACC (more basketball blue bloods, as well as schools that prioritize basketball)
2. B1G (lots of high revenue schools that are willing to spend on basketball)
3. B12
4. Big East
5. SEC (the addition of Texas and Oklahoma will help basketball, but football will always be the priority...except at Kentucky)
6. PAC
(This post was last modified: 09-09-2021 04:32 PM by Wahoowa84.)
09-09-2021 04:26 PM
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JSchmack Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Rank the basketball conferences
(09-09-2021 10:54 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  The A-10 is very good conference. I do not like its 14-school makeup and believe they can elevate if they could shed a couple schools that have been more-or-less deadweight over the last decade or two.

This is what led me to the dark netherworld of talking about conference realignment constantly. There's like nothing we can do other than hope two of our schools decided "maybe the MAAC/Patriot would be better for us."

The A-10 is incredibly undervalued. Their NCAA Bids/Units stats are like 20 behind the Pac-12 over the last 20 years; and you can go year by year and just look at the bias of P5 getting the benefit of the doubt over non-P5 schools and find 7 Pac-12 teams that didn't deserve bids but got them just because the Pac-12 is a "power conference" and the A-10's perception has become "mid-major" since ESPN dropped them; and 7 more A-10 teams that should have gotten into the dance and were screwed.

I.E. - St. Bona in 2016... the bracket leaked and half the internet thought it was fake because St. Bonaventure -- who won more road games vs Top 25 RPI/NET teams than KANSAS DID -- was left out.

Or when Colorado won the Pac-12, and Cal got an at-large bid they didn't deserve because there was NO WAY they were going to make the Pac-12 a one-bid league even though they deserved one bid. Cal lost the First Four game to USF by double-digits.


Mid-Majors don't have more seasons getting 5 or 6 bids than they have getting one bid. That's a power conference. The difference is deep runs. We haven't had a Final Four contender (in a non-pandemic year) in a long time. Dayton with Obi Toppin probably could have raised our cred significantly but 2020 was canceled.
09-09-2021 06:12 PM
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BKTopper Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Rank the basketball conferences
(09-09-2021 12:33 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Power leagues

1. ACC

2. SEC (was improving and now elevates further with OU and UT)

3. Big Ten

4. (tie) Big East and Big 12

6. The Conference of Champions


Major conferences

7. (tie) A-10, MWC and AAC (depending on additions)

10. MVC

11. WCC (takes a step back due to loss of BYU)

12. C-USA (losing UAB and Marshall to AAC would hurt)

It will actually help, tremendously, since CUSA is a forever 1bid conference and 12>14 in that reality.
(This post was last modified: 09-09-2021 06:25 PM by BKTopper.)
09-09-2021 06:24 PM
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nyc Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Rank the basketball conferences
09-09-2021 06:52 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Rank the basketball conferences
(09-09-2021 06:52 PM)nyc Wrote:  

Good find - and about what I would expect
09-09-2021 07:04 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Rank the basketball conferences
I assume this doesn't have any of the AAC adds - which will likely drop it down even further.
09-09-2021 07:06 PM
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BewareThePhog Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Rank the basketball conferences
(09-09-2021 06:52 PM)nyc Wrote:  
The averages are illuminating, although of course not the whole story. I do think that at times people have underrated the Big XII in hoops, although it was very important for Baylor to break through with a title last year.

In terms of historic brands it’s still hard to beat the ACC in my eyes. The B1G usually gets it’s due for a strong but perhaps not elite top half, and I see the Big XII in a similar vein.

OU has been a mostly consistent strong program. UT was surging a while back but hasn’t found consistency - Beard may well change that. Good adds for the SEC.

Love getting Cincinnati for the Big XII. BYU has also been strong and of course Houston is coming off a Final Four season. I’d love to see them sustain their success. We’ll see what UCF can do - haven’t tracked them in hoops, although obviously I will be moving forward.
09-09-2021 07:12 PM
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JSchmack Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Rank the basketball conferences
(09-09-2021 06:52 PM)nyc Wrote:  

That's not how any of this works. Taking the average rating of teams moving from one conference to another is pointless. And he should know better.

Every rating system is schedule dependent. There's no way for it not to be. Because any statistic you use, you're posting that stat against an opponent. The conference schedule is 60% or more of a team's schedule. Change conference, change the schedule, change the ratings. It's that simple.

And his stuff is flawed because there is zero way for any system to account for the effect conference play has on every metric. If you build a system that's totally schedule neutral, it's going to tell you that the 30-5 Little Rock team that made the NCAA second round is the 5th best team in the country, when everyone believes they aren't quite that good; and it's going to tell you that a 15-17 Indiana team is terrible when everyone knows they're a top 80 program who just happens to play 18 games against other top 80 programs.

So KenPom builds in the conference expectations into the model, because if it consistently said Loyola or Stephen F Austin or Belmont were Top 10 teams... no one is subscribing for an inside edge in gambling.


Predictive measures have ZERO BUSINESS being involved in NCAA Tournament selection. When the NCAA let Greg Shaheen go, it was a BCS takeover of the NCAA Tournament process so that the Committee got to decide "Who was the best team" instead of being told to invite "who was the most deserving." And since the committee is 50% BCS members, it was just a money grab by the cartel.
09-09-2021 08:53 PM
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