(09-08-2021 02:21 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 02:17 PM)solohawks Wrote:  MWC makes less than AAC now by almost 50%. A reduced AAC will still make more than the MWC.

I suspect the AAC deal drops by 50% or fairly close to it. Even still it would have to drop by a lot more than that for it to make any financial sense to consider the MWC, and that's not even factoring in how much the Boise deal lessens everyone else's take home pay. The MWC deal currently would be about 4 million a year if split evenly, as we all know it isn't. If any AAC additions were worth enough to massively boost the MWC deal then the AAC deal isn't going to actually get cut by that much.

IMO, the three departing schools are worth more like 5% of the AAC deal on a per-school basis, not 50%. There just isn't much difference in brand value in the AAC, top to bottom.

But maybe the networks see it differently.

If the AAC decides to go back to 12 members, I believe ECU would be happy being in a division with Appalachian, Marshall, Temple, Memphis and USF.

I also think Navy could live with being in a division with SMU, Rice, Tulsa, Tulane and UAB.

That would leave CUSA with 11 members, and for geographical balance they would either need to lose another eastern team (ODU to SBC?) or add one in the west (New Mexico St?). Those aren't great options. But at this point, CUSA, SBC and MAC would all be clear G5 bottom feeders, and the AAC and MWC couldn't even claim "tweener" status.

(09-08-2021 07:45 PM)Statefan Wrote:  This is a good Football AAC:

Northeast:

UMass, UConn, Army, Buffalo, Temple, Navy, Marshall

Southwest:

SMU, Rice, Tulsa, Tulane, Memphis, USF, ECU

Nothing says "good football" like UMass, UConn, Army, Rice and USF.

(09-08-2021 02:05 PM)Charlie Broadway Wrote:  I wonder if SMU and Tulsa would entertain the possibility of moving to the MWC after reading this thread yikes. Might want to throw them a bone…

Got a good point.

Army*
Temple
Marshall
East Carolina
App State
Memphis
USF
(VCU)**

Navy*
UAB
Tulane
Southern Miss
SMU
Rice
Tulsa
(Wichita State)**


———
And if you decide to do the western Wing, gut the MWC, and add that division. Top 2 ranked teams overall play for conf title regardless of division.
———-
Air Force
Colorado State
Boise State
UNLV
SDSU
Fresno State
New Mexico/Hawaii*
(Gonzaga)**


This would be a good basketball league as well, and if the numbers make sense to become the de facto #6 league then that would work.

It would put the left over MWC, CUSA, SB well down the line. As well as MAC which would stay unchanged.
And would get you every good football and basketball brand out there remaining.

(09-08-2021 11:50 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  The CUSA FCS/Start-ups just didnt pan out. The Sun Belt additions from FCS/Start-up are doing well.

It was probably a mistake to take half the FB Sun Belt around the time the AAC raided CUSA. It was actually the bottom half, too.

Sorry but I don't think WKU was from the bottom half. We've won two CUSA football championships and have been ranked since we joined CUSA and lets not forget the other sports as well.

(09-09-2021 11:31 AM)topper1296 Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 11:50 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  The CUSA FCS/Start-ups just didnt pan out. The Sun Belt additions from FCS/Start-up are doing well.

It was probably a mistake to take half the FB Sun Belt around the time the AAC raided CUSA. It was actually the bottom half, too.

Sorry but I don't think WKU was from the bottom half. We've won two CUSA football championships and have been ranked since we joined CUSA and lets not forget the other sports as well.

Either there have been 32 years since 2015(which we can't rule out), or you guys are including non-sports activities. Championships for hobbies like bowling, basketball, and lacrosse do not count.

(09-09-2021 11:31 AM)topper1296 Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 11:50 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  The CUSA FCS/Start-ups just didnt pan out. The Sun Belt additions from FCS/Start-up are doing well.

It was probably a mistake to take half the FB Sun Belt around the time the AAC raided CUSA. It was actually the bottom half, too.

Sorry but I don't think WKU was from the bottom half. We've won two CUSA football championships and have been ranked since we joined CUSA and lets not forget the other sports as well.

CUSA took teams from the bottom half of the Sun Belt. I said nothing about their performance since.

(09-09-2021 02:11 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 11:31 AM)topper1296 Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 11:50 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  The CUSA FCS/Start-ups just didnt pan out. The Sun Belt additions from FCS/Start-up are doing well.

It was probably a mistake to take half the FB Sun Belt around the time the AAC raided CUSA. It was actually the bottom half, too.

Sorry but I don't think WKU was from the bottom half. We've won two CUSA football championships and have been ranked since we joined CUSA and lets not forget the other sports as well.

Either there have been 32 years since 2015(which we can't rule out), or you guys are including non-sports activities. Championships for hobbies like bowling, basketball, and lacrosse do not count.

LOL. ECU fan wishes they could make basketball a club sport.

(09-08-2021 02:18 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 12:43 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  There is no way Aresco recommends to the AAC presidents to add two NC programs for a total of three in one state. Great for North Carolina? Of course! Great for the totality of the AAC members? No!

#1) Would ECU even support this?
#2) Navy, Navy, Navy
#3) Hoops only member Wichita State
#4) Balance of geography shifts to east-centric

My guess is ECU would support App over Charlotte. However, while I think neither is a likely add if either were to get in whether I like it or not the pick would be Charlotte. Major metro, huge enrollment, good basketball history (yeah currently awful), and long term relationships with most of the league from the old C-USA days/A10 with Temple.

Despite the main downside of giving those teams a leg up in their recruiting against us, I would actually love to have some drivable rivalries like the in-state ACC teams have.

That said, it's honestly a really tough call from a long term standpoint. Do you go with teams that have been good for the past 45 minutes, knowing that their interest could drop when their records do? Do you go after markets?

I think the best possible way to look at it is, if every single candidate had a 1-11 record in the first 10 years in conference, which one would be the most valuable? In other words, which team has the Cleveland Browns fanbase that will take the punishment and stick around. That would give the answer on who to add, and I honestly have no idea.

Marshall maybe?

Honestly there would be nothing better for G5 football in the State of North Carolina than for ECU, App and Charlotte to play each other every year. Which is why it won't happen.

(09-09-2021 06:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 02:21 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 02:17 PM)solohawks Wrote:  MWC makes less than AAC now by almost 50%. A reduced AAC will still make more than the MWC.

I suspect the AAC deal drops by 50% or fairly close to it. Even still it would have to drop by a lot more than that for it to make any financial sense to consider the MWC, and that's not even factoring in how much the Boise deal lessens everyone else's take home pay. The MWC deal currently would be about 4 million a year if split evenly, as we all know it isn't. If any AAC additions were worth enough to massively boost the MWC deal then the AAC deal isn't going to actually get cut by that much.

IMO, the three departing schools are worth more like 5% of the AAC deal on a per-school basis, not 50%. There just isn't much difference in brand value in the AAC, top to bottom.

But maybe the networks see it differently.

lol...Even if they were just the average random AAC school the 3 schools leaving would still constitute 27% of the TV deal---so 5% is just a ridiculously silly take. That said---I think most realize the top draws in a conference tend to be worth more than the bottom of the conference. Thus, I dont find it odd that the losing those three might lead to a loss of value that exceeds 27%.

Now, when it comes to the CUSA teams coming in---those values are going to be much closer because the whole CUSA deal is only 7 million. So---AT MOST---Marshall could be worth 7 million---and thats assuming all the other CUSA schools are worth nothing. But here's the thing---if your adding 3 CUSA schools to the AAC---then their total cumulative value still cant be over 7 million (the total value of the CUSA deal---and again---thats assuming all the left behind CUSA schools have a value of zero). So, when we talk about adding these CUSA schools your probably talking about schools with a realistic total value of 1 to 2 million each. Even if the bottom school only has few hundred K in value---then the difference is really very little between the CUSA cadidates for the AAC. More importantly, the exiting teams all carry at least the "average" 7 million dollar valuations---so the AAC TV value----even using the most advantageous numbers reasonably possible----would be declining by a minimum of 14 million in value a year (17%)--and thats really best case scenario.

(09-09-2021 02:16 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 11:31 AM)topper1296 Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 11:50 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  The CUSA FCS/Start-ups just didnt pan out. The Sun Belt additions from FCS/Start-up are doing well.

It was probably a mistake to take half the FB Sun Belt around the time the AAC raided CUSA. It was actually the bottom half, too.

Sorry but I don't think WKU was from the bottom half. We've won two CUSA football championships and have been ranked since we joined CUSA and lets not forget the other sports as well.

CUSA took teams from the bottom half of the Sun Belt. I said nothing about their performance since.

Not sure how WKU was the bottom half of the SBC either when we left. WKU won the all-sports conference award 6 times, won a total of 128 league or regular season championships and men's bball had 12 championships to go along with 7 NCAA tourney wins (the rest of the SBC went 0-16 during that span). Football did make the transition from FCS to FBS during that span and went 17-22 so I'll give you that during the growing pains part of the transition. Maybe you're referring to only football, but basketball is also important to a lot of sports fans. Personally, I'm also a fan of women's volleyball and WKU has been ranked the last couple years and are currently ranked #15.

(09-09-2021 02:19 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 02:18 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 12:43 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  There is no way Aresco recommends to the AAC presidents to add two NC programs for a total of three in one state. Great for North Carolina? Of course! Great for the totality of the AAC members? No!

#1) Would ECU even support this?
#2) Navy, Navy, Navy
#3) Hoops only member Wichita State
#4) Balance of geography shifts to east-centric

My guess is ECU would support App over Charlotte. However, while I think neither is a likely add if either were to get in whether I like it or not the pick would be Charlotte. Major metro, huge enrollment, good basketball history (yeah currently awful), and long term relationships with most of the league from the old C-USA days/A10 with Temple.

Despite the main downside of giving those teams a leg up in their recruiting against us, I would actually love to have some drivable rivalries like the in-state ACC teams have.

That said, it's honestly a really tough call from a long term standpoint. Do you go with teams that have been good for the past 45 minutes, knowing that their interest could drop when their records do? Do you go after markets?

I think the best possible way to look at it is, if every single candidate had a 1-11 record in the first 10 years in conference, which one would be the most valuable? In other words, which team has the Cleveland Browns fanbase that will take the punishment and stick around. That would give the answer on who to add, and I honestly have no idea.

Marshall maybe?

We've been there and done that. We were losing when we first moved to CUSA and still averaged around 28k/game.

I think App St is the only other program who could do that, but that's just a guess on my part as they haven't experienced multiple years of losing to find out.

(09-09-2021 02:35 PM)topper1296 Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 02:16 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(09-09-2021 11:31 AM)topper1296 Wrote:  

(09-08-2021 11:50 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  The CUSA FCS/Start-ups just didnt pan out. The Sun Belt additions from FCS/Start-up are doing well.

It was probably a mistake to take half the FB Sun Belt around the time the AAC raided CUSA. It was actually the bottom half, too.

Sorry but I don't think WKU was from the bottom half. We've won two CUSA football championships and have been ranked since we joined CUSA and lets not forget the other sports as well.

CUSA took teams from the bottom half of the Sun Belt. I said nothing about their performance since.

Not sure how WKU was the bottom half of the SBC either when we left. WKU won the all-sports conference award 6 times, won a total of 128 league or regular season championships and men's bball had 12 championships to go along with 7 NCAA tourney wins (the rest of the SBC went 0-16 during that span). Football did make the transition from FCS to FBS during that span and went 17-22 so I'll give you that during the growing pains part of the transition. Maybe you're referring to only football, but basketball is also important to a lot of sports fans. Personally, I'm also a fan of women's volleyball and WKU has been ranked the last couple years and are currently ranked #15.

The first two years WKU played SBC football were also our first two years as a full FBS team so we struggled. After that, we finished in 5th, 3rd, and 2nd out of 10 teams before moving to CUSA. Definitely not a bottom half of the Sun Belt football team.

When we moved to CUSA we finished in the East Div: 3rd, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 7th, 3rd and 3rd. We are tied with UAB and FAU with 2 Conference Championship Titles in the last 7 years.