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Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
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Southernpride416 Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
(09-06-2021 07:19 PM)NotDanBeebe Wrote:  The New Big 12 will remain a Power 5 Conference as long as OSU, Texas Tech, Kansas, Iowa State, and West Virginia stay, and Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF do what they should do. From a winning stand point, the top half of the NB 12 will consistently win over the bottom half of the SEC, ACC, PAC-12, and Big 10. And with the NIL point you've made, there is just too much money to be made here.

The irony is that in the next 10 years, Cincinnati/West Virginia to the ACC and Houston/BYU to the PAC-12 could be more likely than Texas Tech and OSU anywhere, and that will absolutely be beautiful to watch if it happens. Couldn't happen a more deserving fan base in the Big 12.

This is the logic I don’t quite understand. With football being the main driver here, how does Kansas help to ensure future P5 status????
09-07-2021 12:05 PM
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bluesox Offline
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RE: Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
If the big 12 schools do to well they will get raided by the pac 12, acc, and big 10 so they can match the sec at 16
(This post was last modified: 09-07-2021 12:07 PM by bluesox.)
09-07-2021 12:06 PM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
(09-07-2021 11:14 AM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 10:52 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 10:40 AM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  Look at what happened to Utah, TCU and Louisville once they got into a tougher league. Same applies to West Virginia, Pitt, Syracuse and Rutgers. They all struggled. Sure, some of them had a good season or two and in TCU’s case, they had a good argument to be included in the first CFP.

What makes people think the same won’t apply to whoever the Big XII invites? They’ll have a chip on their shoulder at first and win big games but I can see 6-9 win seasons on a regular basis which is not terrible if you’re in a power league getting a big fat check.

Pitt, Syracuse and Rutgers were mediocre in FB before they switched leagues. No surprise they haven’t raised the roofs in their new homes.

TCU and Utah have been pretty solid in their new homes. It was not that long ago TCU was robbed of a CFP spot.

Which is exactly my point.

Utah has been a solid addition in football more so than Colorado. They’ve come close to win the Pac-12 and get a Rose Bowl bid but haven’t done so yet in the decade they’ve been in the conference. TCU was hungry and made a good case in 2014 but they have struggled since then. West Virginia after winning 3 BCS bowls in the Big East has struggled in the Big XII. Look at Louisville in the ACC. And those four schools were regarded as better football schools compared to the schools the Big XII is considered for expansion. If those four have had their struggles in their new homes, what makes you think BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and Central Florida won’t?


I don’t really expect the new additions to win conference titles every year in football and basketball. But even an 8 win season in the Big XII rewards you on an Alamo Bowl instead of the Nobody Cares Bowl in the AAC with a similar record.

Congratulations to Cincinnati. I still believe you’re an ACC school in a G5 conference but the Big XII is a good consolation prize and you’ll continue that rivalry with West Virginia that conference realignment interrupted. If you can pull an OOC series with Louisville then you’ll be in football and basketball heaven.

With respects to West Virginia, I think their coaching hasn’t been the right fits. I was never impressed with Dana Holgerson and Neal Brown Judy might not be the right fit in Morgantown. Louisville’s off the field issues has impacted their on the field and court performance. It caught up to them. It had to be hard to recruit with so many issues lingering. Again, I think coaching fit has been an issue. When Louisville has been good they have a coach with a lot of ties in FL and GA. Knowing Louisville like I do I suspect the next hire will be the right fit and we will see them ascend in the ACC.
09-07-2021 12:12 PM
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UCbball21 Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
(09-07-2021 12:12 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 11:14 AM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 10:52 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 10:40 AM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  Look at what happened to Utah, TCU and Louisville once they got into a tougher league. Same applies to West Virginia, Pitt, Syracuse and Rutgers. They all struggled. Sure, some of them had a good season or two and in TCU’s case, they had a good argument to be included in the first CFP.

What makes people think the same won’t apply to whoever the Big XII invites? They’ll have a chip on their shoulder at first and win big games but I can see 6-9 win seasons on a regular basis which is not terrible if you’re in a power league getting a big fat check.

Pitt, Syracuse and Rutgers were mediocre in FB before they switched leagues. No surprise they haven’t raised the roofs in their new homes.

TCU and Utah have been pretty solid in their new homes. It was not that long ago TCU was robbed of a CFP spot.

Which is exactly my point.

Utah has been a solid addition in football more so than Colorado. They’ve come close to win the Pac-12 and get a Rose Bowl bid but haven’t done so yet in the decade they’ve been in the conference. TCU was hungry and made a good case in 2014 but they have struggled since then. West Virginia after winning 3 BCS bowls in the Big East has struggled in the Big XII. Look at Louisville in the ACC. And those four schools were regarded as better football schools compared to the schools the Big XII is considered for expansion. If those four have had their struggles in their new homes, what makes you think BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and Central Florida won’t?


I don’t really expect the new additions to win conference titles every year in football and basketball. But even an 8 win season in the Big XII rewards you on an Alamo Bowl instead of the Nobody Cares Bowl in the AAC with a similar record.

Congratulations to Cincinnati. I still believe you’re an ACC school in a G5 conference but the Big XII is a good consolation prize and you’ll continue that rivalry with West Virginia that conference realignment interrupted. If you can pull an OOC series with Louisville then you’ll be in football and basketball heaven.

With respects to West Virginia, I think their coaching hasn’t been the right fits. I was never impressed with Dana Holgerson and Neal Brown Judy might not be the right fit in Morgantown. Louisville’s off the field issues has impacted their on the field and court performance. It caught up to them. It had to be hard to recruit with so many issues lingering. Again, I think coaching fit has been an issue. When Louisville has been good they have a coach with a lot of ties in FL and GA. Knowing Louisville like I do I suspect the next hire will be the right fit and we will see them ascend in the ACC.

Louisville also needs to do a better job of recruiting in-state prospects. Kentucky doesn't have much talent but it's far from the worst state either. Louisville has basically has gotten commitments barely any Kentucky prospects over the last few recruited cycles.

Lousiville should be anchoring their classes with 3-5 commits per cycle with local talent. You can't depend on FL/GA with how much national competition there is for recruits in those areas.
09-07-2021 12:45 PM
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bill dazzle Online
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Post: #45
RE: Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
A few thoughts:

* I think Luke F. stays at Cincy for awhile (admittedly, my bias might be clouding my thoughts on this).

* The future football standard bearers for the Big 12 will be ... no single program. Should be very wide open year in and out. And that will be fantastic for the league.

* Many "regular" fans will likely view Big 12 football as "sufficiently power level" (and likely every bit as good most years as the Pac 12). One would have to be a clueless boob to not consider Big 12 men's hoops "power."
09-07-2021 12:47 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
(09-07-2021 11:30 AM)johnintx Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 11:14 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 09:37 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 08:33 AM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  I'd not be surprised if Oklahoma State became the new king of the B12 conference.

In football? Iowa State says hello. I don't see a true king. And I think that is a good thing. Rest assured, Cincinnati and UCF can hit the ground running and pull their weight in football immediately.

Where have you been the last 109 years?

Iowa St. is good right now. But they haven't won a conference title since 1912. Came close last year as #1 seed going into ccg.

Oklahoma St. and TCU would be the best bets.

Can Iowa State sustain what they have if Matt Campbell leaves? They have a good thing going, and if they can keep Matt Campbell, they have a good shot. But, if say, Michigan comes calling, ISU will have to make another good hire. They have invested in the program, for sure.

The same can be said for TCU and Gary Patterson, but I believe that TCU will spend whatever it takes to be competitive. I trust them to make a good hire when Patterson steps away (which may not be for a while). The lessons of the 1994 realignment still sting for them.

I agree that OSU stands to succeed in the new Big 12. Their program is sustainable, and is bigger than their longtime coach. The Pickens donations stabilized their program and increased their expectations.

Ahhh, but what happened in the past is the past. The question is what about now and moving forward? Cincinnati has survived coaching changes just about every three years since Mark Dantonio left for Michigan State. We've been successful consistently since then because we have good infrastructure in place and we're the clear #2 program in the State of Ohio. I would argue, similar to UCF, we've done more with less than any program out there. Now, we get the opportunity of an improved conference, exposure and money. I understand Oklahoma State's history and brand but to say they will be the new king is a bit premature IMO. As I said, I think the competitiveness of a league without Oklahoma constantly dominating is a thing of beauty and will make for some interesting and exciting times indeed. I hope to develop some new rivalries as well.
09-07-2021 12:57 PM
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Charlie Broadway Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
I hate literally every move UH has made with the football program since Herman left. I’m seeing the way Houston is being overlooked as realignment looms but the cold, hard truth is that it’s 100% due to our own doing. You all have no idea how much I’d love to drop a “don’t sleep on Houston” but I just don’t have it in me. Can’t wait until we get a real football coach again. It’s amazing how fast everyone forgot what we had going and how easy it is to lose it.
09-07-2021 01:45 PM
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RE: Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
(09-06-2021 11:15 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  
(09-06-2021 07:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(09-06-2021 06:02 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  We are in a new era of college sports with the NIL.

Houston, Cinci and UCF are all high "upside" programs.

UCF in the Orlando market with no NFL competition is going to be able to go head to head with SEC schools in terms of NIL $ and attracting athletes. They will mop up in their back yard with recruiting and make a dent in Texas now that they will be playing there. With one of the largest student bodies in the country, they are almost guaranteed, if they are playing decent football, to be at the top of attendance and TV viewership. With the right coach, would not surprise me to, in 5 years, see UCF where Florida State was a few years ago - a perennial Nat Champ contender.

Houston, likewise, in their giant market, will find the $ to attract the athletes they need, right in their back yard. Further, they will probably take athletes from Texas, A&M (especially) and LSU. The attendance potential has been shown to be there - they could find themselves, like UCF, to be near top of TV and attendance, and competing for the highest caliber athletes.

Cincinatti is already a Top 10 Football Team. That will only continue - how many recruits will they steal out from under Ohio State because they are competing in the B12?

I'm not mentioning BYU because they are already P5 caliber.

In 5 years, its very possible that these 4 schools rank at the top of the B12 in terms of interest, wins, fan support, and outstrip a lot of the supposedly more attractive properties ensconced in the bigger conferences. When one of these teams wins its first Nat Championship (I'm guessing UCF) over Alabama or Ohio State, the national perception will change and the B12 will be back in the Top 4.

In the meantime, its very likely that Texas is going to be, like Nebraska before them, wishing they didn't switch conferences.

Houston will only rarely win a recruiting battle head to head with Texas A&M, OU or Texas. They can compete with the rest. Texas A&M, OU and Texas compete with top programs from out of state. Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech and Oklahoma St. will occasionally get someone really high, but usually not someone those 3 were pursuing hard.

I’m curious to see the recruiting advantages if Houston moves to the big12... I think Houston will hold their own vs UT & a&m... Not saying Houston is going to kill it but will find themselves in conversations with high rank recruits far more as before and may even snatch a few away from horns and a&m.

First step Houston need to take is to fire Holgorsen. Since he's been aboard Houston has finished between 5th and 7th in the AAC and hasn't been able to out recruit Tulane, nevermind Cincinnati, UCF, Memphis, or SMU. Given that track record, it seems quite a reach to expect that they will be able to hold their own against UT and A&M without a coaching change.
09-07-2021 01:52 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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RE: Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
(09-07-2021 01:45 PM)Charlie Broadway Wrote:  I hate literally every move UH has made with the football program since Herman left. I’m seeing the way Houston is being overlooked as realignment looms but the cold, hard truth is that it’s 100% due to our own doing. You all have no idea how much I’d love to drop a “don’t sleep on Houston” but I just don’t have it in me. Can’t wait until we get a real football coach again. It’s amazing how fast everyone forgot what we had going and how easy it is to lose it.

(09-07-2021 01:52 PM)RobUCF Wrote:  First step Houston need to take is to fire Holgorsen. Since he's been aboard Houston has finished between 5th and 7th in the AAC and hasn't been able to out recruit Tulane, nevermind Cincinnati, UCF, Memphis, or SMU. Given that track record, it seems quite a reach to expect that they will be able to hold their own against UT and A&M without a coaching change.

^^^^
What Rob said.
09-07-2021 02:32 PM
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CliftonAve Offline
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RE: Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
(09-07-2021 12:45 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 12:12 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 11:14 AM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 10:52 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 10:40 AM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  Look at what happened to Utah, TCU and Louisville once they got into a tougher league. Same applies to West Virginia, Pitt, Syracuse and Rutgers. They all struggled. Sure, some of them had a good season or two and in TCU’s case, they had a good argument to be included in the first CFP.

What makes people think the same won’t apply to whoever the Big XII invites? They’ll have a chip on their shoulder at first and win big games but I can see 6-9 win seasons on a regular basis which is not terrible if you’re in a power league getting a big fat check.

Pitt, Syracuse and Rutgers were mediocre in FB before they switched leagues. No surprise they haven’t raised the roofs in their new homes.

TCU and Utah have been pretty solid in their new homes. It was not that long ago TCU was robbed of a CFP spot.

Which is exactly my point.

Utah has been a solid addition in football more so than Colorado. They’ve come close to win the Pac-12 and get a Rose Bowl bid but haven’t done so yet in the decade they’ve been in the conference. TCU was hungry and made a good case in 2014 but they have struggled since then. West Virginia after winning 3 BCS bowls in the Big East has struggled in the Big XII. Look at Louisville in the ACC. And those four schools were regarded as better football schools compared to the schools the Big XII is considered for expansion. If those four have had their struggles in their new homes, what makes you think BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and Central Florida won’t?


I don’t really expect the new additions to win conference titles every year in football and basketball. But even an 8 win season in the Big XII rewards you on an Alamo Bowl instead of the Nobody Cares Bowl in the AAC with a similar record.

Congratulations to Cincinnati. I still believe you’re an ACC school in a G5 conference but the Big XII is a good consolation prize and you’ll continue that rivalry with West Virginia that conference realignment interrupted. If you can pull an OOC series with Louisville then you’ll be in football and basketball heaven.

With respects to West Virginia, I think their coaching hasn’t been the right fits. I was never impressed with Dana Holgerson and Neal Brown Judy might not be the right fit in Morgantown. Louisville’s off the field issues has impacted their on the field and court performance. It caught up to them. It had to be hard to recruit with so many issues lingering. Again, I think coaching fit has been an issue. When Louisville has been good they have a coach with a lot of ties in FL and GA. Knowing Louisville like I do I suspect the next hire will be the right fit and we will see them ascend in the ACC.

Louisville also needs to do a better job of recruiting in-state prospects. Kentucky doesn't have much talent but it's far from the worst state either. Louisville has basically has gotten commitments barely any Kentucky prospects over the last few recruited cycles.

Lousiville should be anchoring their classes with 3-5 commits per cycle with local talent. You can't depend on FL/GA with how much national competition there is for recruits in those areas.

I saw an article from The Athletic on recruiting in the state of KY. I think a lot of HS football coaches in KY are a bunch of UK fans and flat-out steer their recruits elsewhere. Just as it has worked out to have an OSU guy coach UC, I think UL would benefit from a UK guy; I just don’t there is an equivalent to Luke Fickell in the Commonwealth.
09-07-2021 02:48 PM
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RE: Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
Having a muddled middle is NOT great for conference perception. The ACC sans Clemson has been really bad, but having a consistent top dog in the playoff has largely preserved the “P5” persona of that conference. Having 5 teams ranked 15-25 may look like a “power” conference, but being outside the top 5 kills perception. That muddled middle is how I think the Big8+4 winds up looking.

For teams that “move up” the change in recruiting doesn’t really happen at the top end of the class, but rather at the bottom. The top 10 recruits in the class aren’t that much better, but the bottom 15 are decidedly better than in G5 days. But that depth is completely applied to keeping up with the weekly grind of playing in a power conference.

I think healthy Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, and BYU teams will win games in the Big8+4 and play spoiler for teams trying to become dominant, but they’re also going to lose games for the first handful of years due to depth issues. I think that will keep the Big8+4 out of the playoff picture and hurt perception. By the time the new schools have the depth to make a big run, O think the perception damage will already have occurred.
09-07-2021 05:58 PM
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shizzle787 Online
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RE: Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
The Big 12 will cease to be a football power conference the day Texas and Oklahoma leave.
09-07-2021 06:10 PM
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RE: Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
(09-07-2021 02:48 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 12:45 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 12:12 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 11:14 AM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 10:52 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Pitt, Syracuse and Rutgers were mediocre in FB before they switched leagues. No surprise they haven’t raised the roofs in their new homes.

TCU and Utah have been pretty solid in their new homes. It was not that long ago TCU was robbed of a CFP spot.

Which is exactly my point.

Utah has been a solid addition in football more so than Colorado. They’ve come close to win the Pac-12 and get a Rose Bowl bid but haven’t done so yet in the decade they’ve been in the conference. TCU was hungry and made a good case in 2014 but they have struggled since then. West Virginia after winning 3 BCS bowls in the Big East has struggled in the Big XII. Look at Louisville in the ACC. And those four schools were regarded as better football schools compared to the schools the Big XII is considered for expansion. If those four have had their struggles in their new homes, what makes you think BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and Central Florida won’t?


I don’t really expect the new additions to win conference titles every year in football and basketball. But even an 8 win season in the Big XII rewards you on an Alamo Bowl instead of the Nobody Cares Bowl in the AAC with a similar record.

Congratulations to Cincinnati. I still believe you’re an ACC school in a G5 conference but the Big XII is a good consolation prize and you’ll continue that rivalry with West Virginia that conference realignment interrupted. If you can pull an OOC series with Louisville then you’ll be in football and basketball heaven.

With respects to West Virginia, I think their coaching hasn’t been the right fits. I was never impressed with Dana Holgerson and Neal Brown Judy might not be the right fit in Morgantown. Louisville’s off the field issues has impacted their on the field and court performance. It caught up to them. It had to be hard to recruit with so many issues lingering. Again, I think coaching fit has been an issue. When Louisville has been good they have a coach with a lot of ties in FL and GA. Knowing Louisville like I do I suspect the next hire will be the right fit and we will see them ascend in the ACC.

Louisville also needs to do a better job of recruiting in-state prospects. Kentucky doesn't have much talent but it's far from the worst state either. Louisville has basically has gotten commitments barely any Kentucky prospects over the last few recruited cycles.

Lousiville should be anchoring their classes with 3-5 commits per cycle with local talent. You can't depend on FL/GA with how much national competition there is for recruits in those areas.

I saw an article from The Athletic on recruiting in the state of KY. I think a lot of HS football coaches in KY are a bunch of UK fans and flat-out steer their recruits elsewhere. Just as it has worked out to have an OSU guy coach UC, I think UL would benefit from a UK guy; I just don’t there is an equivalent to Luke Fickell in the Commonwealth.

You barely have any P-5 quality players coming out of High School in Kentucky. That's the first problem.

This year according to 247 KY has zero top 100 kids and just 11 top 1000.
For comparison, West Va has zero top 100 and just 2 top 1000. Even Ohio only has 4 top 100 and 30 top 1000.

Georgia by contrast has 9 top 100 kids and 94 top 1000 kids.
(This post was last modified: 09-07-2021 06:35 PM by Statefan.)
09-07-2021 06:28 PM
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RobUCF Offline
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RE: Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
(09-07-2021 06:10 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  The Big 12 will cease to be a football power conference the day Texas and Oklahoma leave.

Yes, I will continue to appreciate the input of UConn fans on the sport of football. 03-lmfao
09-07-2021 06:43 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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RE: Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
(09-07-2021 05:58 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  Having a muddled middle is NOT great for conference perception. The ACC sans Clemson has been really bad, but having a consistent top dog in the playoff has largely preserved the “P5” persona of that conference. Having 5 teams ranked 15-25 may look like a “power” conference, but being outside the top 5 kills perception. That muddled middle is how I think the Big8+4 winds up looking.

For teams that “move up” the change in recruiting doesn’t really happen at the top end of the class, but rather at the bottom. The top 10 recruits in the class aren’t that much better, but the bottom 15 are decidedly better than in G5 days. But that depth is completely applied to keeping up with the weekly grind of playing in a power conference.

I think healthy Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, and BYU teams will win games in the Big8+4 and play spoiler for teams trying to become dominant, but they’re also going to lose games for the first handful of years due to depth issues. I think that will keep the Big8+4 out of the playoff picture and hurt perception. By the time the new schools have the depth to make a big run, O think the perception damage will already have occurred.

So what's the perception of the P12? I don't see anyone cracking the CFP and USC has fallen off the power train. I bring that up because I see a perception of the SEC followed by the BIG as powers and then everybody else in a scrum.
09-07-2021 07:07 PM
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Post: #56
RE: Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
(09-07-2021 06:43 PM)RobUCF Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 06:10 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  The Big 12 will cease to be a football power conference the day Texas and Oklahoma leave.

Yes, I will continue to appreciate the input of UConn fans on the sport of football. 03-lmfao

No doubt...... Connecticut guy should really stick with what they might know a little something about, like girls basketball. Nobody turns to Connecticut guy for his take on college football.
09-07-2021 07:26 PM
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Kyle Mack Offline
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RE: Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
(09-07-2021 05:58 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  Having a muddled middle is NOT great for conference perception. The ACC sans Clemson has been really bad, but having a consistent top dog in the playoff has largely preserved the “P5” persona of that conference. Having 5 teams ranked 15-25 may look like a “power” conference, but being outside the top 5 kills perception. That muddled middle is how I think the Big8+4 winds up looking.

For teams that “move up” the change in recruiting doesn’t really happen at the top end of the class, but rather at the bottom. The top 10 recruits in the class aren’t that much better, but the bottom 15 are decidedly better than in G5 days. But that depth is completely applied to keeping up with the weekly grind of playing in a power conference.

I think healthy Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, and BYU teams will win games in the Big8+4 and play spoiler for teams trying to become dominant, but they’re also going to lose games for the first handful of years due to depth issues. I think that will keep the Big8+4 out of the playoff picture and hurt perception. By the time the new schools have the depth to make a big run, O think the perception damage will already have occurred.

There is virtually no talent or depth difference between the 8 and the top half of the AAC. UC could have won the Big 12 last year. And the AAC teams now have a couple of years to make adjustments for recruiting. There probably isn't much of a difference with average annual NFL draft picks comparing the 2 anyway. A one off example OSU offered LB/DT Malik Vann 2018 class, so did Alabama, Oklahoma, PSU, Whisky, FSU, MSU etc. He just became a starter for UC this year. That is called depth.
09-08-2021 07:18 AM
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thrill_house Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
I highly doubt Houston and BYU will become much of anything. There's just nothing that differentiates themselves from the current divisional opponents.

UCF and Cincinnati will be put in a division with schools from Iowa, Kansas, and West Virginia, so it's expected at least one of them will become a Top-25 program.
09-08-2021 09:39 AM
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thrill_house Offline
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RE: Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
(09-07-2021 05:58 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  Having a muddled middle is NOT great for conference perception.

Bingo.

Look what's happened to the Big Ten with the Rutgers and Maryland additions. Spring boarded everyone.

You need good teams to be good, and bad teams to suck.

This won't end well unless UCF/Cincy become Top-10 teams who are beating up on everyone.

And then you have to question why the remaining 8 decided to destroy their programs instead of add wins.
09-08-2021 09:43 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Just wait until Houston, Cinci, and UCF grow into their P5 status
(09-07-2021 07:07 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  So what's the perception of the P12? I don't see anyone cracking the CFP and USC has fallen off the power train. I bring that up because I see a perception of the SEC followed by the BIG as powers and then everybody else in a scrum.

It depends on how you define "power". Does it mean results on the field, specifically recent results? Or brand value?

IMO, the actual definition of Power is brand value. It's high-brand schools that gets a conference invited to sign formal agreements that give you big media deals and P-level payouts from playoff systems. It's high-brand that makes the conference known nationally as a big deal. The Big 12 had that thanks to Texas and OU, now they do not anymore. Thanks to TX and OU, they do have permanent Autonomy status (there's no way to take that away) and are Power-level in all the signed deals until 2025. That's the legacy of TX and OU brand value.

The Big East proved that the brand-value of an old member can persist. Miami, who was the reason the Big East was included in the BCS-AQ group in 1998, left in 2003, but the Big East, thanks to deals signed, kept its formal Power/AQ status for almost a full 10 more years, until 2013. When Cincy and USF joined the Big East in 2005, we benefitted for seven years from the legacy of Miami's brand, even though they were gone by them. But for the NB12, after 2025, that likely goes away.

The PAC does face a perception problem. I think you sum up the PAC perception well. The PAC is perceived to be weak in football because it doesn't have any schools getting in to the CFP, which has kind of become the litmus test for that at the conference level.

But, the numbers also show that even over the past five years (throwing out virus 2020), the PAC has very much performed as a power-level league. The PAC has been better than the ACC on average. It just suffers because it doesn't have a Clemson to bail the conference out by making the playoffs every year. But the underlying fundamentals are sound.

BTW, USC is IMO nowhere close to being off the power train. In terms of brand, USC is still a top elite football brand, up there with anyone. That doesn't change due to a few bad seasons, and USC hasn't even really had a few bad seasons.

In the end, I think you might be correct - after 2025, we might see the dissolution of the P5 concept, with the SEC and B1G in a class of their own, and the PAC/ACC/NB12 in order behind them, with the AAC and MW next. Or something like that.
(This post was last modified: 09-08-2021 09:52 AM by quo vadis.)
09-08-2021 09:45 AM
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