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In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
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herdfan129 Online
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Post: #21
RE: In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
(09-07-2021 12:12 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 12:31 AM)herdfan129 Wrote:  So you choose three years as some arbitrary number to fit your agenda? Sorry, but it doesn't work that way. Trust me, I wanted to include 2013 for Marshall but I didn't because re-alignment didn't finalize until 2014. In 2013 we still had ECU and Tulsa in CUSA and WKU was still in the Sun Belt.

I chose to use the data since the last round of re-alignment which is by far the most fair way to do it. Plus it shows things on a much bigger historical scale. Nice try though.

3, 6, 10, 20, 50 years - its all arbitrary. Realignment never "finalized" but it did stall once the CFP began which is how I interpreted your post. It seems you've picked an historical stake in the ground which appears more objective. I do the same thing - I look at success in eras (Pre-AP Poll, AP Poll - I-A/I-AA split, AP Poll - pre-BCS, Championship - BCS/CFP).

That being said, and to the content of the discussion, Marshall should be on the shortlist of AAC candidates. I would have the AAC get back to 12 with Marshall, Rice, Southern Miss, and UAB.

Correct. I just chose that time as that was when the last round of realignment was over and teams were settled in to the conferences we are currently in. I thought it was the most fair, plus I don't have the time to go back any further lol

I also think the AAC should go to 12, but who knows.
09-07-2021 02:53 PM
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herdfan129 Online
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Post: #22
RE: In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
I updated the original post to include Average TV Ratings Since 2013. It's at the very bottom of the post for anyone who cares.
09-07-2021 02:54 PM
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No Bull Offline
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Post: #23
RE: In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
(09-07-2021 02:54 PM)herdfan129 Wrote:  I updated the original post to include Average TV Ratings Since 2013. It's at the very bottom of the post for anyone who cares.

Thanks for putting all this data together. Nice job.
09-07-2021 03:28 PM
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No Bull Offline
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Post: #24
RE: In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
One takeaway from this is Southern Miss’s TV ratings and how little they are televised. I really like the Golden Eagles and love their football history so I was hoping that the AAC might consider them. But the lack of tv exposure and ratings is problematic. That sucks.
09-07-2021 03:34 PM
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Post: #25
RE: In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
(09-07-2021 02:54 PM)herdfan129 Wrote:  I updated the original post to include Average TV Ratings Since 2013. It's at the very bottom of the post for anyone who cares.

Very, very well done. And ratings by channel is exactly how it's supposed to be done.

Of course the problem is (and I've discovered this too) there's games where ratings are never released, which makes this frustrating as we're left with no option but to compare incomplete data. But you did the best anyone not working in the industry can do. Kudos!
09-07-2021 04:03 PM
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herdfan129 Online
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Post: #26
RE: In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
My instant take away from this in terms of TV Ratings....

Rice was MUCH better than I was expecting. Marshall was better than I was expecting in comparison to others.

UAB and So Miss ratings were MUCH lower than I was expecting.

App St ratings were not as impressive as I was expecting as they don't have a single game over 2 Million viewers.

Both Louisiana and La Tech were better than I was expecting and both of them have much better ratings than App St.
09-07-2021 04:18 PM
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No Bull Offline
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RE: In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
(09-07-2021 04:18 PM)herdfan129 Wrote:  My instant take away from this in terms of TV Ratings....

Rice was MUCH better than I was expecting. Marshall was better than I was expecting in comparison to others.

UAB and So Miss ratings were MUCH lower than I was expecting.

App St ratings were not as impressive as I was expecting as they don't have a single game over 2 Million viewers.

Both Louisiana and La Tech were better than I was expecting and both of them have much better ratings than App St.

Marshall has to be at the top of the AAC list. Great football tradition. Good fan support. Marshall was the MAC’s superstar program.

I still think UAB is pretty obvious choice. New facilities. Good sized city. Good basketball and the football has been on a real up swing. Alabama recruiting.

The AAC will pretty much have to add a Texas school. Rice? UTSA?

After that who knows?
09-07-2021 05:46 PM
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GeminiCoog Offline
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Post: #28
RE: In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
(09-07-2021 05:46 PM)No Bull Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 04:18 PM)herdfan129 Wrote:  My instant take away from this in terms of TV Ratings....

Rice was MUCH better than I was expecting. Marshall was better than I was expecting in comparison to others.

UAB and So Miss ratings were MUCH lower than I was expecting.

App St ratings were not as impressive as I was expecting as they don't have a single game over 2 Million viewers.

Both Louisiana and La Tech were better than I was expecting and both of them have much better ratings than App St.

Marshall has to be at the top of the AAC list. Great football tradition. Good fan support. Marshall was the MAC’s superstar program.

I still think UAB is pretty obvious choice. New facilities. Good sized city. Good basketball and the football has been on a real up swing. Alabama recruiting.

The AAC will pretty much have to add a Texas school. Rice? UTSA?

After that who knows?

If they want to keep Navy happy, one of the new invites needs to be a Texas school. That way, the Midshipmen are still guaranteed to make a trip to the Lone Star State every season.
(This post was last modified: 09-07-2021 07:43 PM by GeminiCoog.)
09-07-2021 07:36 PM
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Post: #29
RE: In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
(09-07-2021 04:18 PM)herdfan129 Wrote:  My instant take away from this in terms of TV Ratings....

Rice was MUCH better than I was expecting. Marshall was better than I was expecting in comparison to others.

UAB and So Miss ratings were MUCH lower than I was expecting.

App St ratings were not as impressive as I was expecting as they don't have a single game over 2 Million viewers.

Both Louisiana and La Tech were better than I was expecting and both of them have much better ratings than App St.

I was also surprised to see the TV numbers for Rice. Now it makes more sense to me that the MWC has made overtures to Rice in the past.
09-07-2021 07:39 PM
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herdfan129 Online
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Post: #30
RE: In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
(09-07-2021 07:39 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 04:18 PM)herdfan129 Wrote:  My instant take away from this in terms of TV Ratings....

Rice was MUCH better than I was expecting. Marshall was better than I was expecting in comparison to others.

UAB and So Miss ratings were MUCH lower than I was expecting.

App St ratings were not as impressive as I was expecting as they don't have a single game over 2 Million viewers.

Both Louisiana and La Tech were better than I was expecting and both of them have much better ratings than App St.

I was also surprised to see the TV numbers for Rice. Now it makes more sense to me that the MWC has made overtures to Rice in the past.


Yes. I agree. Granted the numbers are somewhat skewed with one game against Texas A&M being over 4 million, but even without that game they have very good numbers. Much better than I would have ever guessed.
09-07-2021 07:44 PM
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herdfan129 Online
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Post: #31
RE: In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
I have updated the list again. This update is to include the football and basketball budgets for each school. Everyone wants to talk about overall athletic budgets, but that is irrelevant when football is driving the bus and basketball is riding shotgun.
09-07-2021 07:45 PM
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Post: #32
RE: In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
(09-07-2021 07:36 PM)GeminiCoog Wrote:  If they want to keep Navy happy, one of the new invites needs to be a Texas school. That way, the Midshipmen are still guaranteed to make a trip to the Lone Star State every season.

It's not just Navy, they want to make everyone happy. I just fail to see the long-term sustainability of a conference with marginal revenue and no geographic footprint. Same reason this Big 12 isn't sustainable with their recent additions. Right now they have a common goal, but when everyone starts taking L's to programs a thousand miles away and gate attendance drops they're going to question why they added schools which hurt their own schools brand long-term.

But that's not what this thread is about. It's about the Marshall fan listing the majority of their "in depth statistical categories" to include Marshall in the Top-2 setting himself up for anger, frustration, and disappointment when the American passes on their university yet again for some developmental cracker box in a "major metropolitan market" that's going to hand all it's current members W's.
09-07-2021 09:41 PM
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herdfan129 Online
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Post: #33
RE: In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
(09-07-2021 09:41 PM)thrill_house Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 07:36 PM)GeminiCoog Wrote:  If they want to keep Navy happy, one of the new invites needs to be a Texas school. That way, the Midshipmen are still guaranteed to make a trip to the Lone Star State every season.

It's not just Navy, they want to make everyone happy. I just fail to see the long-term sustainability of a conference with marginal revenue and no geographic footprint. Same reason this Big 12 isn't sustainable with their recent additions. Right now they have a common goal, but when everyone starts taking L's to programs a thousand miles away and gate attendance drops they're going to question why they added schools which hurt their own schools brand long-term.

But that's not what this thread is about. It's about the Marshall fan listing the majority of their "in depth statistical categories" to include Marshall in the Top-2 setting himself up for anger, frustration, and disappointment when the American passes on their university yet again for some developmental cracker box in a "major metropolitan market" that's going to hand all it's current members W's.


LOL....what?

You can't honestly sit there and pretend I have skewed numbers to favor Marshall in all of this. You can't get much more objective than using the time frame from the last round of re-alignment.

You might not like these numbers, but they are objective and unbiased.

People can use the numbers to make whatever opinion they choose.
09-07-2021 10:07 PM
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Post: #34
RE: In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
(09-07-2021 09:41 PM)thrill_house Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 07:36 PM)GeminiCoog Wrote:  If they want to keep Navy happy, one of the new invites needs to be a Texas school. That way, the Midshipmen are still guaranteed to make a trip to the Lone Star State every season.

It's not just Navy, they want to make everyone happy. I just fail to see the long-term sustainability of a conference with marginal revenue and no geographic footprint. Same reason this Big 12 isn't sustainable with their recent additions. Right now they have a common goal, but when everyone starts taking L's to programs a thousand miles away and gate attendance drops they're going to question why they added schools which hurt their own schools brand long-term.

But that's not what this thread is about. It's about the Marshall fan listing the majority of their "in depth statistical categories" to include Marshall in the Top-2 setting himself up for anger, frustration, and disappointment when the American passes on their university yet again for some developmental cracker box in a "major metropolitan market" that's going to hand all it's current members W's.

There are a lot of homers on this board cherrypicking data for their narrative.

This wasn’t one of them. The OP’s information is relevant and useful, and does a good job establishing context by taking a span of years as well as breaking down ratings by channel. It’s one of the better data compilations I’ve seen on this site over 7 years.

I agree with you the AAC will just take two schools from major metropolitan markets, that seems to be what always happens.
09-07-2021 10:49 PM
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Post: #35
RE: In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
Damn, who did Southern Miss piss off? Their TV appearances are dismal.

I have a great memory of watching a TCU vs So. Miss game a long time ago with my pops. It was a real slugfest. C-USA era. My only regret is I left to go hang out with my friends before it was over.
(This post was last modified: 09-07-2021 11:34 PM by esayem.)
09-07-2021 11:33 PM
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Post: #36
RE: In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
(09-07-2021 10:49 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 09:41 PM)thrill_house Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 07:36 PM)GeminiCoog Wrote:  If they want to keep Navy happy, one of the new invites needs to be a Texas school. That way, the Midshipmen are still guaranteed to make a trip to the Lone Star State every season.

It's not just Navy, they want to make everyone happy. I just fail to see the long-term sustainability of a conference with marginal revenue and no geographic footprint. Same reason this Big 12 isn't sustainable with their recent additions. Right now they have a common goal, but when everyone starts taking L's to programs a thousand miles away and gate attendance drops they're going to question why they added schools which hurt their own schools brand long-term.

But that's not what this thread is about. It's about the Marshall fan listing the majority of their "in depth statistical categories" to include Marshall in the Top-2 setting himself up for anger, frustration, and disappointment when the American passes on their university yet again for some developmental cracker box in a "major metropolitan market" that's going to hand all it's current members W's.

There are a lot of homers on this board cherrypicking data for their narrative.

This wasn’t one of them. The OP’s information is relevant and useful, and does a good job establishing context by taking a span of years as well as breaking down ratings by channel. It’s one of the better data compilations I’ve seen on this site over 7 years.

I agree with you the AAC will just take two schools from major metropolitan markets, that seems to be what always happens.

I'm just stating a fact. Navy loves traveling to Texas every year, whether it be Dallas or Houston. That's why I think the AAC needs to invite a school located in Texas in order to keep Navy happy. Otherwise, I think Navy goes back to being Independent. Also, as I stated in another thread (or maybe it was this one?), schools that were in the East division (when the AAC had divisions) loved having guaranteed trips to Florida every year because of UCF and USF being in the same division. I think those schools may tell USF to pipe down and accept the fact they may decide to add an F_U (not FSU, of course) to the league. I'm basing all of this on recruiting, of course. So I might end up being wrong, and that's okay.
(This post was last modified: 09-07-2021 11:48 PM by GeminiCoog.)
09-07-2021 11:44 PM
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RE: In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
Getting into the AAC is critical. The P5 is following the Knight Commission's recommendation for the top 70 or so schools to separate and form their own association. Once that separation takes place anyone outside that group faces some stark realities. It will likely be the end of a G5 being included in the playoff and possibly the NY6 Bowl. Which in turn means most, if not all, of the CFP money being "gifted" to the G5 will also dry up. Aresco knows this is a very real probability and will push hard to have the AAC included in that top group. Fact is he's been working on it for several years now. It is possible the AAC goes to 12 and it will be an absolute dog fight for those 4 spots. It's no longer about markets, or stadium size. Brand awareness and success will drive the AAC's decision. They can't afford to put their eggs into the "potential" basket. They need programs that have been and continue to be good at making noise and are well known in the college football world. There are only a handful of those out there. It is going to get interesting.
09-08-2021 08:00 AM
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Post: #38
RE: In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
(09-08-2021 08:00 AM)AppManDG Wrote:  Getting into the AAC is critical. The P5 is following the Knight Commission's recommendation for the top 70 or so schools to separate and form their own association. Once that separation takes place anyone outside that group faces some stark realities. It will likely be the end of a G5 being included in the playoff and possibly the NY6 Bowl. Which in turn means most, if not all, of the CFP money being "gifted" to the G5 will also dry up. Aresco knows this is a very real probability and will push hard to have the AAC included in that top group. Fact is he's been working on it for several years now. It is possible the AAC goes to 12 and it will be an absolute dog fight for those 4 spots. It's no longer about markets, or stadium size. Brand awareness and success will drive the AAC's decision. They can't afford to put their eggs into the "potential" basket. They need programs that have been and continue to be good at making noise and are well known in the college football world. There are only a handful of those out there. It is going to get interesting.

Aresco may know and understand that, but it sounds like the university Presidents calling the shots have different motives. If they go for academics over athletics they will end any chance the AAC has of making it into the Top 70 split as you have described it.
09-08-2021 10:07 AM
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Post: #39
RE: In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
(09-07-2021 11:44 PM)GeminiCoog Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 10:49 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 09:41 PM)thrill_house Wrote:  
(09-07-2021 07:36 PM)GeminiCoog Wrote:  If they want to keep Navy happy, one of the new invites needs to be a Texas school. That way, the Midshipmen are still guaranteed to make a trip to the Lone Star State every season.

It's not just Navy, they want to make everyone happy. I just fail to see the long-term sustainability of a conference with marginal revenue and no geographic footprint. Same reason this Big 12 isn't sustainable with their recent additions. Right now they have a common goal, but when everyone starts taking L's to programs a thousand miles away and gate attendance drops they're going to question why they added schools which hurt their own schools brand long-term.

But that's not what this thread is about. It's about the Marshall fan listing the majority of their "in depth statistical categories" to include Marshall in the Top-2 setting himself up for anger, frustration, and disappointment when the American passes on their university yet again for some developmental cracker box in a "major metropolitan market" that's going to hand all it's current members W's.

There are a lot of homers on this board cherrypicking data for their narrative.

This wasn’t one of them. The OP’s information is relevant and useful, and does a good job establishing context by taking a span of years as well as breaking down ratings by channel. It’s one of the better data compilations I’ve seen on this site over 7 years.

I agree with you the AAC will just take two schools from major metropolitan markets, that seems to be what always happens.

I'm just stating a fact. Navy loves traveling to Texas every year, whether it be Dallas or Houston. That's why I think the AAC needs to invite a school located in Texas in order to keep Navy happy. Otherwise, I think Navy goes back to being Independent. Also, as I stated in another thread (or maybe it was this one?), schools that were in the East division (when the AAC had divisions) loved having guaranteed trips to Florida every year because of UCF and USF being in the same division. I think those schools may tell USF to pipe down and accept the fact they may decide to add an F_U (not FSU, of course) to the league. I'm basing all of this on recruiting, of course. So I might end up being wrong, and that's okay.


I agree with you on the AAC seriously looking at another school in Texas for obvious reasons. What they decide to do I have no clue, but Texas school are definitely being evaluated.

Personally, I would go with either UTSA or North Texas, but I have a feeling they will go with Rice.
09-08-2021 10:08 AM
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herdfan129 Online
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RE: In Depth Info On Potential AAC Candidates.....
(09-08-2021 08:00 AM)AppManDG Wrote:  Getting into the AAC is critical. The P5 is following the Knight Commission's recommendation for the top 70 or so schools to separate and form their own association. Once that separation takes place anyone outside that group faces some stark realities. It will likely be the end of a G5 being included in the playoff and possibly the NY6 Bowl. Which in turn means most, if not all, of the CFP money being "gifted" to the G5 will also dry up. Aresco knows this is a very real probability and will push hard to have the AAC included in that top group. Fact is he's been working on it for several years now. It is possible the AAC goes to 12 and it will be an absolute dog fight for those 4 spots. It's no longer about markets, or stadium size. Brand awareness and success will drive the AAC's decision. They can't afford to put their eggs into the "potential" basket. They need programs that have been and continue to be good at making noise and are well known in the college football world. There are only a handful of those out there. It is going to get interesting.

I agree. The time for "potential" has already passed. You can't wait 10 years for a program to develop and grow as this breakaway might happen before that time even comes.

The AAC needs brands and proven on field success if they want any chance of being included in that breakaway.
09-08-2021 10:11 AM
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