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I don't know if they'll announce everything, but it stands to reason the B12 details will at least be roughly agreed to if the deal is soon official. Then we'll also have a negotiation with the AAC if we want to get out before the 27-month agreement to start football play in 2023 for example as rumored. Keep in mind that will be on top of the $10 exit fee that there is probably no getting away from. Another factor might be NCAA conference credits that we may have to forfeit upon departure with or without compensation.

The OK and Texas situations aren't necessarily resolved, but I'd think we'd have agreements in place for all contingencies from them leaving next year to staying in place through the GOR expiration in 2025. If they stay through 2024-2025 the tv contract stays in place and presumably should even increase given the additional game inventory the Big12 (14?) will have with 4 new members. I'm having a hard time finding the exit fees UT and OU are on the hook for when they officially leave. I keep seeing $80M each but I'm not sure if that includes both an exit fee and an additional "break the GOR" fee or not. Whenever and whatever amount they pay, it sounds like the B12 tv deal with be adjusted down significantly for the remaining members even with the 4 adds.

So there are two big issues for the 3 of us departing the AAC.
1. Will we get any help paying the $10M exit fee to join B12 football in 2024 after 27 months' notice? What about if we join sooner (i.e. the reported 2023 football season) and thus incur a likely hefty additional AAC penalty on top of the $10M?

2. When will the 4 newbies (or at least the 3 AAC members as BYU may get a different deal depending upon the outcome of #1) become full members financially? And will that membership include any of the financial spoils from the OK and TX departures (especially if we join in 2023 and they both stay for 2023 and 2024 as "currently planned")?

I have no doubt the AAC is not going to do us any favors or cut us any breaks but I also suspect the B12 is going to also be very, very stingy with us on the road to "full membership". I'm guessing the best they do towards our AAC exit fee is a loan that we pay back over time from our likely already reduced share of B12 conference proceeds. I also think they'll drag out the membership process by giving us less than full shares over maybe 3 to 4 years which won't even start until we begin playing in 2023 (ideally) or 2024. The point being the financial windfall we are all so excited about could take several years before reaching fruition and even then I'm not sure it will be as big as we all hope.

Thoughts?

I believe in the past they use prior ncaa credits as payment towards the debt owed.

Guessing we get a reduced share the first few years to pay off our entrance fee and exit fee. 2023 seems like a reasonable entrance point. It's not much before the 27 month notice. We'll negotiate a reasonable exit fee north of 10 million but less than 17.

My guess is the 4 new schools won't see one penny of the OU/TX exit money. If there is any.

We will get the same deal WVU did. A reduced share for several years to pay down the entrance fees as if it were a zero interest loan.

(09-07-2021 06:33 PM)Cat-Man Wrote:  My guess is the 4 new schools won't see one penny of the OU/TX exit money. If there is any.

We shouldn’t see a dime of it.

(09-07-2021 06:33 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  We will get the same deal WVU did. A reduced share for several years to pay down the entrance fees as if it were a zero interest loan.

This is my guess too. Then equal revenue from the pooled T1/T2, with
T3 owned by the schools so the biggest brands are happy. I’d guess new innovative revenue mechanisms from streaming are handled that way, but maybe it’s rolled up to the conference level

(09-07-2021 06:33 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  We will get the same deal WVU did. A reduced share for several years to pay down the entrance fees as if it were a zero interest loan.

Looking for details, but I think WVU only received partial shares for their first 4 fiscal years. Of course, those shares were under the big tv contract including UT and OU so it was still a nice bump from the Big East. Hypothetically, if we join in 2023 and OU and UT stay for 2023 and 2024 we could see 2 years under that same contract as well (perhaps even more on a conference gross basis given the increase in game inventory from 4 new members). But partial shares of significantly reduced non UT/OU B12 conference TV money on top of paying back an exit fee north of $10M is going to take a big bite into our net gains compared to the AAC.

(09-07-2021 06:34 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(09-07-2021 06:33 PM)Cat-Man Wrote:  My guess is the 4 new schools won't see one penny of the OU/TX exit money. If there is any.

We shouldn’t see a dime of it.

Most likely. I think there's a reasonable case to be made that if we join in 2023 and those 2 don't actually leave until 2024 or 2025 we should get a taste. But as I said above - they won't share a dime they don't absolutely have to in my opinion.

No I idea how this shakes out, but I'm wondering if we can negotiate leaving Pesik on the AAC board.

Good piece on the Texas/OK exit situation in the Athletic. As I read it, the exit costs for them have 2 elements. One is a flat-out exit fee of 2 years of conference distributions. Since B12 teams currently get around $40M total that means $80 each. But they also signed a GOR through 2025 giving up all their tv rights to the conference. If they stay through 2024-25, no problem. But if they want to leave a year or two earlier, the B12 would also presumably argue that you owe us your portion of the TV GOR or about $28M per year each. So UT and OU would be looking at paying about $136M each to leave for 2023-24, or $108M to leave for 2024-25, or $80M to leave for 2025. For their part, UT and OU could/would argue that the $40M per year included the tv money so they would be actually paying twice. There's nothing in the conference by-laws to specifically support that but that's probably the wiggle room both parties use for negotiations since few actually expect them to really stay through 2024-2025.

So the remaining members are looking at an exit fee pool ranging from $160M (if both stay through the GOR) to $272M (if the B12 dug in its heels and OU and UT just said screw it and paid up) pending negotiations. Divided by 8 that's $20M to $34M per team as I'm reading all of this.

So even though it would mean a significant reduction in their tv distribution, the 8 would presumably much prefer OU and UT out by 2023 season. As I mentioned earlier above, if the 4 adds started in 2023, from a fairness perspective it seems reasonable that we should also get a slice of the pie, or at least a prorated slice, if OU and UT stick around for 2023 and/or 2024. We'd all be part of the same conference for that year or two, playing games against each other and competing in the standings and representing the conference in bowls/playoffs. But I highly suspect the terms of admission will specifically exclude that possibility and make it clear the newbies get $0 from any exit fees even if we start in 2023 and OU and UT stay for 2023 and 2024.