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Playoff Odds
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Crayton Online
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Playoff Odds
Two games left this week, but ran the numbers early. The affect on Notre Dame's playoff chances should be apparent. Thanks to your Summer feedback, the rankings are a little more sensitive to early-season results than they were last year.

Overall Playoff Chances (change since last week, after rounding down)
Code:
1) 74.6% Ohio St (-1%)
2) 64.86% Alabama (+9%)
3) 47.86% Notre Dame (-9%)
4) 36.75% Georgia (+28%)
5) 30.94% Iowa (+7%)
6) 25.78% Oklahoma (-7%)
7) 20.11% Texas (-3%)
8) 15.68% Clemson (-26%)
9) 10.96% Penn State (+10%)
10) 8.8% Wisconsin (-27%)
11) 7.75% USC (+3%)
12) 6.61% Michigan (+4%)
13) 6.41% Texas A&M (+3%)
14) 5.33% BYU (+1%)
15) 5.3% UCF (+4%)
16) 3.56% UCLA (+3%)
17) 3.18% Florida (+2%)
18) 2.93% Cincinnati (-1%)
19) 2.51% App St (+2%)
20) 2.37% Marshall (+2%)
21) 2.37% Buffalo (+1%)
22) 1.82% Auburn (+1%)
23) 1.44% Miami (-1%)
24) 1.41% Oregon (+1%)
25) 1.08% Air Force (+1%)
26) 1.07% Arizona St (+1%)
27) 1.04% Virginia Tech (+1%)
28) 0.97% Utah
29) 0.6% TCU
30) 0.59% Boise St (-6%)
31) 0.55% Wake Forest
32) 0.54% OK State (-1%)
33) 0.37% Iowa St
34) 0.34% Memphis
35) 0.24% Kentucky
36) 0.19% Kansas
37) 0.16% Toledo
38) 0.16% Ball St
39) 0.14% Purdue
40) 0.14% Nebraska
41) 0.14% SMU
42) 0.13% South Carolina
43) 0.13% North Texas
44) 0.12% Colorado
45) 0.11% Virginia
46) 0.11% UAB
47) 0.1% Ole Miss
48) 0.1% Pittsburgh
49) 0.1% San Diego St
50) 0.1% Troy
51) 0.09% Arkansas St
52) 0.08% Boston College
53) 0.08% Kansas St
54) 0.08% Army
55) 0.07% Mississippi St
56) 0.07% Illinois
57) 0.07% Minnesota
58) 0.07% Wyoming
59) 0.06% Louisville
60) 0.06% NC State
61) 0.06% Stanford
62) 0.05% Michigan St
63) 0.05% Baylor
64) 0.05% WKU
65) 0.04% Colorado St
66) 0.03% Arkansas
67) 0.03% Syracuse
68) 0.03% Texas Tech
69) 0.03% Washington (-1%)
70) 0.03% Nevada
71) 0.03% Louisiana
72) 0.02% Tennessee
73) 0.02% LSU (-1%)
74) 0.02% North Carolina
75) 0.02% Maryland
76) 0.02% FIU
77) 0.02% Ga Southern
78) 0.01% Missouri
79) 0.01% West Virginia
80) 0.01% Tulsa
81) 0.01% UTEP
82) 0.01% Charlotte
83) 0.01% Western Michigan
84) 0.01% Eastern Michigan

Playoff Chances, given a certain record (must be >1% chance of obtaining record)
Code:
100% (12-0)+W Georgia (10%)
100% (12-0)+W Alabama (27%)
100% (12-0)+W Ohio St (34%)
100% (12-0)+W Iowa (5%)
100% (12-0)+W Texas (5%)
100% (12-0)+W USC (1%)
98% (12-0)      Notre Dame (19%)
98% (12-0)+W Oklahoma (10%)
96% (11-1)+W Penn State (1%)
96% (11-1)+W Ohio St (21%)
95% (11-1)+W Michigan (1%)
94% (12-0)+W Cincinnati (1%)
94% (12-0)      BYU (3%)
92% (11-1)+W Iowa (10%)
90% (11-1)+W Alabama (25%)
89% (11-1)+W Georgia (14%)
83% (11-1)      Penn State (3%)
83% (11-1)+W Texas A&M (2%)
83% (12-0)+L  Ohio St (12%)
79% (12-0)+W App St (2%)
77% (12-0)+L  Alabama (9%)
77% (12-0)+W UCF (4%)
75% (12-0)+L  Iowa (11%)
75% (11-1)      Notre Dame (34%)
68% (11-1)+W Texas (16%)
68% (12-0)+L  Georgia (17%)
67% (11-1)      Iowa (3%)
65% (10-2)+W Wisconsin (2%)
64% (11-1)+W USC (7%)
63% (11-1)      Ohio St (6%)
62% (11-1)+W Florida (1%)
60% (12-0)+L  Texas (4%)
58% (11-1)+W Oklahoma (20%)
56% (11-1)      Michigan (2%)
54% (11-1)      Alabama (6%)
54% (10-2)+W Penn State (1%)
54% (11-1)+L  Penn State (2%)
52% (11-1)+L  Wisconsin (2%)
52% (12-0)+W Air Force (2%)
50% (11-1)+W Miami (1%)
50% (11-1)      Auburn (1%)
46% (12-0)+W Marshall (5%)
42% (10-2)+W Iowa (7%)
42% (11-1)+W Clemson (34%)
42% (11-1)+W Utah (1%)
41% (11-1)+W UCLA (4%)
39% (12-0)+L  Oklahoma (5%)
39% (10-2)+W Ohio St (4%)
38% (12-0)+L  Texas A&M (1%)
37% (11-1)      Georgia (4%)
36% (11-1)      UCLA (1%)
36% (12-0)+L  Florida (1%)
35% (12-0)+W Buffalo (5%)
32% (11-1)      Texas A&M (5%)
29% (10-2)+W Auburn (1%)
28% (11-1)      Florida (2%)
27% (11-1)+W Oregon (2%)
25% (10-2)+W Alabama (5%)
25% (11-1)+W Wake Forest (1%)
25% (11-1)+L  Michigan (2%)
23% (10-2)      Wisconsin (7%)
22% (10-2)+W Georgia (4%)
22% (11-1)+L  Ohio St (8%)
21% (11-1)+W Arizona St (2%)
18% (11-1)+W Boise St (2%)
18% (11-1)+L  Iowa (18%)
17% (10-2)      Penn State (19%)
17% (9-3)+W Wisconsin (2%)
16% (11-1)      Wake Forest (1%)
15% (10-2)+W Texas (13%)
15% (11-1)+L  Alabama (8%)
13% (11-1)      BYU (15%)
13% (10-2)+W Texas A&M (1%)
9% (11-1)+L  Georgia (21%)
8% (11-1)+W Cincinnati (11%)
8% (10-2)      Notre Dame (27%)
8% (10-2)+W Florida (1%)
7% (10-2)+W Oklahoma (14%)
7% (11-1)+L  Auburn (1%)
6% (10-2)+W Iowa St (1%)
6% (10-2)+W USC (11%)
5% (11-1)+L  Texas A&M (3%)
5% (10-2)+W Miami (4%)
5% (10-2)      Michigan (17%)
4% (10-2)      Ohio St (6%)
4% (10-2)      Mississippi St (1%)
4% (11-1)+L  Florida (5%)
3% (11-1)+L  Oklahoma (13%)
3% (10-2)+L  Wisconsin (8%)
3% (11-1)+L  Texas (14%)
3% (11-1)+W UCF (16%)
3% (10-2)      Miami (1%)
3% (10-2)      Minnesota (1%)
3% (10-2)+W Clemson (28%)
2% (11-1)+L  USC (3%)
2% (11-1)+W Memphis (2%)
2% (11-1)+W App St (14%)
2% (10-2)      Clemson (2%)
2% (10-2)+W OK State (2%)
2% (10-2)+W Utah (3%)
2% (10-2)+W TCU (1%)
1% (10-2)      Iowa (9%)
1% (10-2)      Auburn (6%)
1% (10-2)      Alabama (9%)
1% (10-2)      USC (7%)
1% (10-2)      Georgia (9%)
1% (10-2)+L  Penn State (1%)
1% (11-1)+W Buffalo (18%)
1% (10-2)      Texas (4%)
1% (10-2)      Oklahoma (5%)
1% (9-3)      Wisconsin (20%)
1% (12-0)+L  UCF (3%)
0% (11-1)+W Toledo (2%)
0% (11-1)+W Air Force (7%)
0% (10-2)+W UCLA (3%)
0% (10-2)      Texas A&M (21%)
0% (11-1)+W Louisiana (1%)
0% (10-2)+W Virginia Tech (2%)
0% (10-2)+W Wake Forest (1%)
0% (11-1)+W Marshall (20%)
0% (10-2)+L  Texas (11%)
0% (10-2)+L  Iowa (12%)
0% (9-3)+W Texas (4%)
0% (11-1)      Army (2%)
0% (10-2)+W Arizona St (4%)
0% (10-2)+W Cincinnati (19%)
0% (11-1)+L  Virginia Tech (3%)
0% (9-3)      Penn State (30%)
0% (11-1)+L  Clemson (6%)
0% (10-2)      Florida (21%)
0% (11-1)+L  Miami (3%)
0% (10-2)+W Oregon (9%)
0% (9-3)+W Miami (4%)
0% (10-2)      Ole Miss (6%)
0% (10-2)+W Boise St (12%)
0% (10-2)      BYU (26%)
0% (10-2)      UCLA (14%)

Playoff chances, by conference, given a certain loss count (frequency of occurrence)
Code:
100% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (37%)
100% 0-loss CHAMP Big Ten (40%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (2%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP Big 12 (15%)
96% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (0%)
95% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (36%)
88% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (45%)
82% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (6%)
77% 0-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (3%)
75% 1-loss at large Big Ten (40%)
63% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (37%)
56% 1-loss at large SEC (53%)
53% 0-loss CHAMP MWC (2%)
48% 1-loss at large Big 12 (10%)
46% 1-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (18%)
46% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (5%)
46% 2-loss CHAMP Big Ten (16%)
42% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (38%)
35% 0-loss CHAMP MAC (6%)
34% 1-loss at large Pac 12 (5%)
23% 1-loss at large ACC (3%)
21% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (14%)
15% 2-loss at large Big Ten (96%)
10% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (33%)
8% 3-loss CHAMP Big Ten (5%)
5% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (30%)
4% 1-loss CHAMP MWC (12%)
3% 2-loss at large SEC (127%)
3% 1-loss at large AAC (6%)
2% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (38%)
2% 2-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (33%)
2% 2-loss at large Big 12 (49%)
2% 1-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (17%)
1% 1-loss CHAMP MAC (21%)
1% 1-loss CHAMP CUSA (21%)
0% 2-loss at large ACC (44%)
0% 3-loss at large Big Ten (137%)
0% 2-loss at large Pac 12 (50%)
0% 3-loss CHAMP Big 12 (11%)
0% 2-loss CHAMP AAC (35%)
0% 3-loss at large Big 12 (107%)
0% 3-loss CHAMP ACC (18%)
0% 2-loss CHAMP MWC (26%)

Most likely Top G5 Champ
Code:
1) 20.36% UCF (+7%)
2) 18.44% Cincinnati (==)
3) 13.09% Marshall (+12%)
4) 12.96% App St (+4%)
5) 10.42% Buffalo (+4%)
6) 6.42% Boise St (-21%)
7) 4.63% Air Force (-2%)
8) 2.28% Memphis (==)
9) 1.76% Louisiana (-1%)
10) 1.27% Toledo (==)
11) 1.13% UAB (+1%)
12) 0.98% San Diego St
13) 0.95% Western Michigan
14) 0.86% Ball St (-1%)[/b]
15) 0.48% Troy
16) 0.4% SMU
17) 0.38% Tulane
18) 0.38% Wyoming
19) 0.25% Navy
20) 0.21% North Texas
21) 0.19% WKU
22) 0.19% Eastern Michigan
23) 0.16% Nevada
24) 0.16% Ga Southern
25) 0.15% Arkansas St
26) 0.13% Colorado St
27) 0.13% San Jose St
28) 0.12% Tulsa
29) 0.11% UTEP
30) 0.11% UTSA
31) 0.08% FIU
32) 0.06% UNLV
33) 0.06% Charlotte
34) 0.06% FAU
35) 0.06% Georgia St
36) 0.05% Utah St
37) 0.04% Houston
38) 0.04% New Mexico
39) 0.04% Hawaii
40) 0.04% Kent St
41) 0.03% East Carolina
42) 0.03% Fresno St
43) 0.03% La Tech
44) 0.03% South Alabama
45) 0.02% Rice
46) 0.02% Middle Tennessee
47) 0.02% Ohio
48) 0.01% Temple
49) 0.01% Miami(OH)
50) 0.01% Northern Illinois

5-1-2 Playoff (WCG) *8th spot*
Code:
80.37% Ohio St (614/817) *1358*
75.27% Alabama (683/889) *1104*
72.02% Clemson (23/40) *9*
55.15% Oklahoma (54/89) *684*
51.09% Georgia (369/630) *1734*
51.04% Notre Dame (4262/6883) *842*
46.7% Texas (81/118) *669*
44.98% Iowa (370/669) *1525*
31.89% USC (76/218) *42*
31.61% Oregon (6/14) *15*
19.52% UCF (6/8) *71*
18.75% Cincinnati (0/7) *40*
17.98% Penn State (975/2214) *433*
14.17% App St (0/15) *1*
13.59% Marshall (2/5) *0*
12.76% Wisconsin (336/759) *324*
12.32% Miami (26/57) *28*
12.12% Buffalo (0/12) *3*
11.2% Texas A&M (453/1039) *185*
10.69% Arizona St (19/72) *7*
10.2% UCLA (52/356) *55*
9.78% Utah (17/74) *15*
9.33% Michigan (412/1217) *268*
7.84% Florida (208/603) *152*
7.81% Virginia Tech (36/116) *39*
5.68% OK State (16/60) *41*
5.48% Boise St (0/1) *1*
5.41% Air Force (9/79) *1*
5.31% Auburn (200/527) *120*
4.94% Wake Forest (38/184) *15*
4.54% Washington (0/0) *0*
4.31% Iowa St (7/42) *7*
3.96% BYU (361/1255) *35*
3.06% Stanford (6/6) *0*
2.88% TCU (9/23) *23*
2.3% Memphis (0/10) *3*
2.08% North Carolina (6/16) *1*
1.43% Louisiana (0/0) *0*
1.1% Toledo (1/2) *1*
1.08% Ole Miss (52/197) *29*
0.97% Boston College (6/60) *7*
0.96% Ball St (0/2) *0*
0.92% Virginia (6/13) *13*
0.92% San Diego St (0/13) *1*
0.91% Pittsburgh (7/9) *9*
0.89% UAB (0/0) *2*
0.85% Minnesota (53/84) *3*
0.8% Western Michigan (0/0) *0*
0.72% Kansas St (3/16) *8*
0.68% Colorado (0/14) *0*
0.64% LSU (15/52) *6*
0.62% Mississippi St (24/62) *22*
0.45% Washington St (0/0) *0*
0.45% Troy (0/8) *0*
0.39% NC State (0/11) *7*
0.39% Purdue (17/39) *8*
0.36% Missouri (24/78) *2*
0.35% Kentucky (9/42) *6*
0.32% South Carolina (18/18) *0*
0.32% WKU (0/0) *1*
0.28% SMU (0/0) *6*
0.26% Baylor (0/6) *0*
0.26% Wyoming (0/0) *0*
0.24% Eastern Michigan (0/0) *0*
0.23% Kansas (6/6) *0*
0.22% Nebraska (9/9) *6*
0.21% Louisville (0/0) *0*
0.21% San Jose St (0/0) *0*
0.2% Arkansas St (0/0) *0*
0.2% Ga Southern (0/0) *0*
0.18% Maryland (0/15) *6*
0.18% North Texas (0/0) *0*
0.16% Tulane (0/0) *0*
0.14% Syracuse (1/3) *0*
0.14% Coastal Carolina (0/0) *0*
0.13% Tulsa (0/0) *0*
0.13% Colorado St (0/0) *0*
0.12% South Alabama (0/0) *0*
0.11% Nevada (0/0) *0*
0.11% FAU (0/0) *0*
0.09% Navy (0/0) *0*
0.09% UNLV (0/0) *0*
0.09% Army (9/50) *0*
0.09% Northern Illinois (0/0) *0*
0.08% Oregon St (0/0) *0*
0.08% La Tech (0/0) *0*
0.07% Michigan St (6/12) *1*
0.07% Northwestern (1/1) *0*
0.07% Arizona (0/0) *0*
0.07% Houston (0/0) *0*
0.07% UTEP (0/0) *0*
0.07% Middle Tennessee (0/0) *0*
0.07% Akron (0/0) *0*
0.06% Rutgers (0/7) *6*
0.06% Rice (0/0) *0*
0.05% Vanderbilt (0/0) *0*
0.05% West Virginia (0/0) *0*
0.05% California (0/0) *0*
0.05% Georgia St (0/0) *0*
0.04% Georgia Tech (0/0) *0*
0.04% Indiana (1/25) *0*
0.03% Texas Tech (0/0) *0*
0.03% FIU (0/0) *0*
0.02% Illinois (0/0) *0*
0.02% Hawaii (0/0) *0*
0.01% Tennessee (0/13) *0*
0.01% Arkansas (0/7) *0*
0.01% Florida St (0/0) *0*
0.01% Duke (0/0) *0*
0.01% New Mexico (0/1) *0*
0.01% Utah St (0/0) *0*

6+6 Playoff, B=Bye, C=Champ First Round, A=At Large First Round
H=Home Game First Round, X=Champ but No Playoff (total 10,000 sims)
still need to auto-sort this one
Code:
B:313 C:87 A:2110 H:928 X:24 Florida
B:2809 C:192 A:5122 H:4050 X:5 Georgia
B:1 C:0 A:22 H:0 X:0 Tennessee
B:8 C:6 A:39 H:26 X:0 South Carolina
B:6 C:7 A:128 H:40 X:7 Kentucky
B:8 C:1 A:275 H:70 X:1 Missouri
B:0 C:4 A:13 H:0 X:1 Vanderbilt
B:5613 C:120 A:3229 H:2654 X:7 Alabama
B:14 C:23 A:163 H:40 X:6 LSU
B:175 C:34 A:1491 H:723 X:2 Auburn
B:1 C:0 A:15 H:2 X:0 Arkansas
B:18 C:9 A:572 H:188 X:0 Ole Miss
B:426 C:47 A:2585 H:1345 X:9 Texas A&M
B:14 C:0 A:170 H:52 X:2 Mississippi St
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:0 Florida St
B:4322 C:2250 A:570 H:652 X:598 Clemson
B:31 C:22 A:158 H:47 X:31 Boston College
B:188 C:155 A:503 H:224 X:98 Wake Forest
B:1 C:8 A:8 H:1 X:12 Louisville
B:9 C:8 A:56 H:30 X:15 NC State
B:0 C:0 A:23 H:4 X:13 Syracuse
B:29 C:33 A:69 H:22 X:13 Pittsburgh
B:467 C:466 A:610 H:285 X:245 Miami
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:1 X:2 Georgia Tech
B:248 C:282 A:571 H:233 X:176 Virginia Tech
B:3 C:33 A:71 H:41 X:37 Virginia
B:21 C:94 A:99 H:28 X:86 North Carolina
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:0 Duke
B:0 C:0 A:8448 H:7287 X:0 Notre Dame
B:12 C:0 A:53 H:15 X:0 Maryland
B:359 C:31 A:4338 H:2706 X:0 Penn State
B:236 C:17 A:3196 H:1760 X:0 Michigan
B:0 C:0 A:46 H:7 X:0 Michigan St
B:5970 C:94 A:3398 H:2983 X:1 Ohio St
B:0 C:0 A:14 H:8 X:0 Rutgers
B:3 C:0 A:129 H:41 X:0 Indiana
B:476 C:109 A:3285 H:1777 X:31 Wisconsin
B:1 C:0 A:7 H:6 X:1 Illinois
B:7 C:7 A:143 H:65 X:0 Purdue
B:0 C:0 A:13 H:7 X:6 Northwestern
B:21 C:6 A:242 H:105 X:2 Minnesota
B:2316 C:244 A:4778 H:3531 X:43 Iowa
B:7 C:0 A:28 H:10 X:0 Nebraska
B:1 C:1 A:1 H:0 X:3 West Virginia
B:9 C:7 A:27 H:6 X:1 Kansas
B:12 C:39 A:77 H:24 X:10 Kansas St
B:142 C:128 A:235 H:95 X:147 Iowa St
B:3769 C:843 A:1926 H:1287 X:165 Oklahoma
B:181 C:212 A:310 H:116 X:118 OK State
B:112 C:109 A:232 H:114 X:35 TCU
B:2985 C:799 A:2286 H:1522 X:136 Texas
B:0 C:2 A:13 H:1 X:1 Texas Tech
B:9 C:10 A:40 H:15 X:7 Baylor
B:24 C:24 A:41 H:17 X:20 Colorado
B:7 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Arizona
B:317 C:447 A:297 H:148 X:279 Arizona St
B:1348 C:1138 A:1017 H:661 X:585 USC
B:524 C:323 A:1182 H:555 X:66 UCLA
B:271 C:351 A:344 H:136 X:324 Utah
B:1 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:3 California
B:414 C:1158 A:169 H:169 X:1568 Oregon
B:0 C:1 A:6 H:0 X:7 Oregon St
B:28 C:53 A:15 H:9 X:219 Stanford
B:14 C:27 A:1 H:1 X:413 Washington
B:0 C:6 A:0 H:0 X:39 Washington St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 UConn
B:1033 C:1592 A:223 H:243 X:2219 Cincinnati
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:3 USF
B:1191 C:1509 A:377 H:427 X:955 UCF
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Temple
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 East Carolina
B:0 C:8 A:0 H:0 X:98 Houston
B:17 C:33 A:7 H:0 X:85 SMU
B:121 C:269 A:95 H:40 X:453 Memphis
B:12 C:8 A:0 H:7 X:112 Tulsa
B:7 C:11 A:6 H:0 X:134 Tulane
B:7 C:17 A:6 H:6 X:91 Navy
B:0 C:0 A:2148 H:1341 X:0 BYU
B:338 C:655 A:258 H:158 X:1198 Air Force
B:0 C:21 A:0 H:7 X:37 Colorado St
B:8 C:59 A:23 H:7 X:257 Wyoming
B:0 C:8 A:1 H:1 X:14 New Mexico
B:195 C:995 A:12 H:79 X:3683 Boise St
B:1 C:13 A:0 H:6 X:61 Utah St
B:2 C:8 A:0 H:0 X:58 UNLV
B:35 C:170 A:46 H:18 X:945 San Diego St
B:8 C:19 A:1 H:1 X:372 Nevada
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:101 Fresno St
B:8 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:138 Hawaii
B:12 C:18 A:0 H:0 X:561 San Jose St
B:0 C:8 A:0 H:0 X:462 La Tech
B:1 C:9 A:1 H:6 X:45 UTEP
B:0 C:6 A:0 H:0 X:85 Rice
B:13 C:5 A:1 H:2 X:90 North Texas
B:0 C:14 A:0 H:0 X:349 UTSA
B:45 C:132 A:3 H:19 X:1851 UAB
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:135 Southern Miss
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:8 Old Dominion
B:12 C:45 A:2 H:8 X:390 WKU
B:1 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:42 Charlotte
B:786 C:1580 A:89 H:202 X:3144 Marshall
B:0 C:14 A:6 H:0 X:60 Middle Tennessee
B:2 C:4 A:0 H:1 X:8 FIU
B:1 C:17 A:0 H:0 X:636 FAU
B:0 C:0 A:130 H:47 X:0 Army
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 UMass
B:700 C:1433 A:108 H:142 X:3272 Buffalo
B:0 C:6 A:0 H:0 X:334 Ohio
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:12 Bowling Green
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:85 Kent St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:182 Miami(OH)
B:0 C:19 A:0 H:0 X:25 Akron
B:1 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:81 Central Michigan
B:30 C:128 A:3 H:14 X:976 Western Michigan
B:2 C:20 A:0 H:0 X:83 Northern Illinois
B:35 C:205 A:22 H:25 X:1062 Toledo
B:44 C:146 A:20 H:28 X:804 Ball St
B:9 C:46 A:2 H:7 X:260 Eastern Michigan
B:0 C:0 A:16 H:9 X:0 Liberty
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 New Mexico St
B:30 C:68 A:27 H:3 X:380 Troy
B:12 C:18 A:6 H:6 X:309 Arkansas St
B:56 C:288 A:6 H:24 X:3042 Louisiana
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:17 La Monroe
B:1 C:13 A:0 H:0 X:71 South Alabama
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:19 Texas St
B:3 C:4 A:0 H:0 X:93 Georgia St
B:19 C:19 A:0 H:6 X:203 Ga Southern
B:895 C:1371 A:192 H:233 X:2614 App St
B:6 C:47 A:1 H:7 X:402 Coastal Carolina

UPDATED after finding bug that put Florida State in a ghost ACCCG 7/10 years.
(This post was last modified: 09-07-2021 04:10 PM by Crayton.)
09-05-2021 11:46 AM
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Crayton Online
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RE: Playoff Odds
Hard to find online odds for the 4 playoff spots with which to compare. A quarter of ESPN talking-heads think the SEC will place 3 teams:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...cks-week-1
09-05-2021 01:29 PM
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UofMstateU Online
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RE: Playoff Odds
Im not sure any 0 loss acc team would 100% make the playoff at this point.
09-05-2021 02:51 PM
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Crayton Online
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RE: Playoff Odds
(09-05-2021 02:51 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Im not sure any 0 loss acc team would 100% make the playoff at this point.
Haha. Ya; I thinned out the data so much it is impossible to say who finished undefeated without manually digging through the data. With Miami, UNC, and Clemson all losing, there is <1% chance for the ACC Champ to be undefeated. And, that 100% may very well be 3 out of 3; not exactly a large enough sample size to be confident in that "100%" number.

For what it is worth, VT has to go through Miami, UNC, Notre Dame, and likely Clemson to go undefeated. If they do it (<1% chance) then making the playoff may be a "lock".
09-05-2021 04:25 PM
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Crayton Online
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RE: Playoff Odds
Under the 6+6, here are a few conference-level observations

The SEC and Big Ten miss <1% of the time and get the bye >94% of the time. No big surprise here.
The Big 12 is next, getting the bye >72% of the time and missing completely <6%.
Despite the Week 1 losses, the ACC Champ is 4th, missing only 13% and betting the bye >53%
The Pac-12 (especially the North) had a bad 1st week; their champ misses the playoff 35% and gets the bye 29%.
The American still has a ~P6 level forecast, missing the playoff >41% and getting the bye >23%.
The G4 each make the playoff ~25%-29% and get a bye ~6%-11% of the time.

At Larges? This is where the money is made (probably, maybe; we don't know yet where the money is made). If we average to the nearest tenth, here is the average allocation for the 6 at-larges.
2.0 Big Ten
1.6 SEC
0.8 Notre Dame
0.5 Big 12
0.3 ACC
0.3 Pac-12
0.2 BYU
0.1 American
0.0 all other FBS combined

Rounding by yet another magnitude, we get what we all expected: 2 SEC, 2 B1G, Notre Dame, and 1 Big 12. It'll be interesting how these numbers flex and change each week.

EDIT: Home Play-In Games are another data point to observe (1 Big Ten, 1 SEC, Notre Dame, and 1 toss-up)
1.3 Big Ten
1.1 SEC
0.8 Notre Dame
0.3 Big 12
0.2 Pac-12
0.2 ACC
0.1 American
0.1 BYU
0.1 everyone else
(This post was last modified: 09-07-2021 04:43 PM by Crayton.)
09-07-2021 04:37 PM
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RE: Playoff Odds
Playoff Chances, given a certain record (must be >1% chance of obtaining record)
Code:
100% (12-0)+W Georgia (14%)
100% (12-0)+W Alabama (20%)
100% (11-1)+W Michigan (2%)
100% (12-0)+W Iowa (9%)
99% (12-0)+W Oklahoma (20%)
99% (11-1)+W Penn State (3%)
99% (11-1)+W Ohio St (12%)
98% (12-0)+W Oregon (9%)
98% (11-1)+W Iowa (18%)
98% (11-1)+W Wisconsin (1%)
97% (12-0)      Notre Dame (11%)
97% (11-1)+W Alabama (22%)
95% (12-0)+W Cincinnati (1%)
94% (11-1)+W Texas A&M (2%)
93% (11-1)+W Georgia (17%)
93% (11-1)      Penn State (2%)
92% (12-0)      BYU (6%)
90% (12-0)+W UCF (6%)
88% (12-0)+L  Iowa (8%)
83% (10-2)+W Wisconsin (3%)
82% (11-1)+W Florida (1%)
81% (12-0)+L  Alabama (9%)
81% (10-2)+W Penn State (2%)
80% (11-1)      Michigan (2%)
79% (11-1)+W Oklahoma (30%)
79% (11-1)      Iowa (3%)
77% (12-0)+L  Georgia (16%)
72% (10-2)+W Michigan (2%)
70% (11-1)      Notre Dame (29%)
69% (11-1)      Alabama (5%)
69% (12-0)+L  Texas A&M (1%)
68% (12-0)+W Air Force (2%)
66% (10-2)+W Ohio St (17%)
65% (12-0)+L  Oklahoma (5%)
65% (11-1)+W Miami (2%)
61% (11-1)+W Virginia Tech (1%)
59% (10-2)+W Auburn (1%)
58% (11-1)+L  Penn State (4%)
57% (11-1)+L  Wisconsin (2%)
55% (11-1)      Georgia (3%)
50% (10-2)+W Iowa (9%)
47% (11-1)+W Clemson (29%)
47% (11-1)      Texas A&M (5%)
46% (11-1)+L  Michigan (3%)
43% (11-1)+L  Auburn (1%)
42% (10-2)+W Alabama (5%)
41% (12-0)+W Marshall (6%)
39% (11-1)+L  Ohio St (10%)
39% (10-2)      Penn State (18%)
36% (11-1)+W UCLA (3%)
34% (10-2)      Wisconsin (6%)
32% (11-1)+W Oregon (21%)
31% (10-2)+W Georgia (5%)
30% (10-2)+W Texas A&M (1%)
25% (11-1)+L  Iowa (15%)
25% (11-1)      Florida (2%)
21% (11-1)+W Boise St (2%)
21% (11-1)+L  Alabama (11%)
18% (10-2)      Michigan (17%)
18% (11-1)+W Arizona St (2%)
18% (11-1)+W Cincinnati (9%)
17% (12-0)+L  Oregon (3%)
17% (9-3)+W Wisconsin (3%)
16% (11-1)      Oregon (1%)
16% (12-0)+L  Cincinnati (1%)
15% (10-2)+L  Penn State (4%)
15% (10-2)+W Oklahoma (17%)
14% (9-3)+W Penn State (1%)
13% (10-2)      Auburn (6%)
13% (11-1)+L  Georgia (18%)
11% (11-1)      Wake Forest (1%)
10% (11-1)+W UCF (18%)
10% (12-0)+L  UCF (3%)
9% (10-2)      Ohio St (5%)
9% (9-3)+W Iowa (1%)
8% (10-2)+W Florida (1%)
7% (11-1)+L  Texas A&M (4%)
7% (10-2)      Iowa (10%)
7% (10-2)+W TCU (1%)
7% (11-1)+W Memphis (2%)
7% (9-3)+W Ohio St (5%)
6% (10-2)+W Texas (2%)
6% (11-1)      BYU (21%)
5% (10-2)      Notre Dame (30%)
4% (10-2)+W OK State (1%)
3% (10-2)      Alabama (13%)
3% (10-2)+L  Michigan (3%)
3% (11-1)+L  Oklahoma (6%)
3% (10-2)+W Miami (5%)
3% (10-2)+L  Wisconsin (5%)
3% (11-1)+L  Miami (4%)
2% (10-2)+W USC (1%)
2% (10-2)      Minnesota (1%)
2% (11-1)      Kentucky (1%)
2% (11-1)+L  Florida (5%)
2% (10-2)+W Virginia Tech (2%)
2% (10-2)+L  Ohio St (13%)
2% (10-2)+W Clemson (27%)
2% (10-2)      Mississippi St (2%)
2% (10-2)      Ole Miss (6%)
1% (10-2)      Texas A&M (22%)
1% (11-1)+L  Virginia Tech (3%)
1% (10-2)+W UCLA (5%)
1% (10-2)      Georgia (9%)
1% (10-2)+W Wake Forest (1%)
1% (11-1)+L  TCU (1%)
1% (11-1)+L  Pittsburgh (1%)
1% (10-2)      Oklahoma (1%)
1% (9-3)+W Oklahoma (3%)
1% (10-2)+L  Iowa (8%)
0% (10-2)      Virginia (1%)
0% (9-3)      Penn State (28%)
0% (9-3)      Wisconsin (20%)
0% (11-1)+W Air Force (7%)
0% (10-2)+L  Auburn (2%)
0% (10-2)+W Oregon (15%)
0% (11-1)      Marshall (2%)
0% (10-2)+W Boise St (11%)
0% (10-2)+W Arizona St (5%)
0% (11-1)      Army (4%)
0% (9-3)      Maryland (4%)
0% (10-2)      Florida (20%)
0% (11-1)+L  UCLA (4%)
0% (11-1)+L  Clemson (8%)
0% (10-2)+W Cincinnati (17%)
0% (11-1)+W Marshall (19%)
0% (11-1)      Air Force (5%)
0% (9-3)      Auburn (21%)
0% (10-2)+W UCF (13%)
0% (9-3)      Michigan (28%)
0% (9-3)      Ohio St (15%)

Playoff chances, by conference, given a certain loss count (frequency of occurrence)
Code:
100% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (36%)
100% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (0%)
100% 0-loss CHAMP Big Ten (10%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP Big 12 (20%)
99% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (38%)
98% 0-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (10%)
94% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (45%)
92% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (8%)
87% 1-loss at large Big Ten (18%)
78% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (32%)
66% 1-loss at large SEC (49%)
65% 2-loss CHAMP Big Ten (36%)
65% 0-loss CHAMP MWC (3%)
64% 1-loss at large Big 12 (5%)
48% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (34%)
40% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (7%)
34% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (16%)
31% 1-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (27%)
28% 2-loss at large Big Ten (98%)
17% 1-loss at large Pac 12 (8%)
17% 1-loss at large ACC (4%)
12% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (30%)
12% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (26%)
10% 3-loss CHAMP Big Ten (12%)
8% 1-loss at large AAC (7%)
6% 2-loss at large SEC (138%)
4% 1-loss CHAMP MWC (15%)
2% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (40%)
2% 3-loss CHAMP SEC (1%)
2% 2-loss at large Big 12 (17%)
1% 2-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (29%)
1% 3-loss at large Big Ten (159%)
0% 1-loss at large CUSA (4%)
0% 2-loss at large ACC (55%)
0% 2-loss CHAMP MWC (28%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP MAC (7%)
0% 3-loss CHAMP Big 12 (15%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP CUSA (20%)
0% 2-loss CHAMP AAC (35%)
0% 1-loss at large MWC (9%)
0% 2-loss at large Pac 12 (39%)
0% 3-loss at large SEC (181%)

Overall Playoff Chances (change since last week, after rounding down)
Code:
1) 59.06% Alabama (-5%)
2) 50.31% Oklahoma (+25%)
3) 49.8% Georgia (+13%)
4) 47.89% Iowa (+17%)
5) 33.95% Notre Dame (-14%)
6) 29.64% Ohio St (45%)
7) 20.63% Penn State (+10%)
8) 17.39% Oregon (+16%)
9) 14.65% Clemson (-1%)
10) 12.58% Michigan (+6%)
11) 9.25% Wisconsin (+1%)
12) 8.06% UCF (+3%)
13) 8.02% Texas A&M (+2%)
14) 7.09% BYU (+2%)
15) 4.43% Auburn (+3%)
16) 3.44% Florida (==)
17) 3.43% Cincinnati (-1%)
18) 2.93% Marshall (==)
19) 2.72% UCLA (-1%)
20) 1.81% Air Force (==)
21) 1.7% Miami (==)
22) 1.35% Virginia Tech (==)
23) 0.78% Arizona St (-1%)
24) 0.75% TCU
25) 0.66% OK State
26) 0.64% Boise St
27) 0.61% Ole Miss
28) 0.59% Memphis
29) 0.58% Pittsburgh
30) 0.48% Texas (-20%)
31) 0.43% Army
32) 0.42% Wake Forest
33) 0.3% Purdue
34) 0.28% Virginia
35) 0.27% Kentucky
36) 0.23% Kansas St
37) 0.22% Maryland
38) 0.18% Nebraska
39) 0.18% San Diego St
40) 0.17% Minnesota
41) 0.16% Michigan St
42) 0.15% Mississippi St
43) 0.14% Indiana
44) 0.14% Texas Tech
45) 0.14% Baylor
46) 0.12% Boston College
47) 0.12% USC (-7%)
48) 0.11% Iowa St
49) 0.11% Wyoming
50) 0.1% Stanford
51) 0.09% South Carolina
52) 0.08% LSU
53) 0.08% SMU
54) 0.07% Colorado
55) 0.06% Arkansas
56) 0.05% Tulane
57) 0.04% Georgia Tech
58) 0.04% Illinois
59) 0.03% Northwestern
60) 0.03% Kansas
61) 0.03% UTSA
62) 0.03% Liberty
63) 0.02% North Carolina
64) 0.02% Duke
65) 0.02% West Virginia
66) 0.02% Utah
67) 0.02% Washington St
68) 0.02% Nevada
69) 0.02% Charlotte
70) 0.02% Kent St
71) 0.01% New Mexico
72) 0.01% Utah St
73) 0.00% App St (-2%)

Most Likely G5 Champ
Code:
1) 28.57% UCF (+8%)
2) 22.28% Cincinnati (+4%)
3) 13.47% Marshall (==)
4) 8.58% Boise St (+2%)
5) 7.61% Air Force (+1%)
6) 4.22% Memphis (+2%)
7) 2.82% App St (-10%)
8) 2.23% San Diego St (+2%)
9) 1.39% Buffalo (-9%)
10) 1.21% Tulane (+1%)
11) 1.05% SMU (+1%)
12) 0.75% Wyoming
13) 0.74% Western Michigan
14) 0.72% FAU
15) 0.61% Toledo (-1%)
16) 0.54% Nevada
17) 0.5% UTSA
18) 0.3% Louisiana (-1%)
19) 0.29% UAB (-1%)
20) 0.24% Ball St
21) 0.2% Houston
22) 0.19% Utah St
23) 0.17% Eastern Michigan
24) 0.14% Central Michigan
25) 0.1% Fresno St
26) 0.1% San Jose St
27) 0.1% Charlotte
28) 0.09% Tulsa
29) 0.07% Kent St
30) 0.06% New Mexico
31) 0.06% Troy
32) 0.05% Navy
33) 0.05% La Tech
34) 0.05% North Texas
35) 0.04% WKU
36) 0.03% Colorado St
37) 0.03% Middle Tennessee
38) 0.03% FIU
39) 0.02% East Carolina
40) 0.02% UTEP
41) 0.02% South Alabama
42) 0.02% Georgia St
43) 0.01% UNLV
44) 0.01% Southern Miss
45) 0.01% Ohio
46) 0.01% Ga Southern

5-1-2 TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*
Code:
78.31% Oklahoma (25/39) *635*
70.77% Alabama (842/1102) *1404*
67.58% Clemson (14/31) *21*
61.07% Georgia (367/584) *1952*
59.72% Iowa (550/901) *1509*
52.14% Oregon (41/117) *132*
47.31% Ohio St (400/613) *669*
39.69% Notre Dame (3259/5564) *710*
30.21% UCF (8/21) *156*
28.35% Penn State (1259/2581) *762*
22.77% Cincinnati (3/13) *46*
18.65% Michigan (743/1663) *559*
16.59% Wisconsin (415/831) *332*
13.99% UCLA (41/139) *41*
13.76% Texas A&M (559/1278) *306*
13.58% Arizona St (5/10) *13*
13.53% Marshall (4/21) *2*
13.18% Miami (13/38) *40*
11.06% Texas (2/2) *11*
8.58% Boise St (0/4) *0*
8.53% Virginia Tech (29/110) *43*
8.06% USC (3/4) *3*
7.84% Stanford (3/3) *2*
7.84% Air Force (18/63) *5*
7.66% Auburn (272/637) *190*
7.45% Florida (201/532) *153*
5.92% OK State (0/15) *26*
5.59% BYU (516/1531) *43*
4.82% TCU (8/29) *28*
4.6% Utah (0/0) *0*
4.39% Memphis (6/27) *11*
4.1% Wake Forest (36/138) *10*
2.88% Iowa St (0/4) *1*
2.82% App St (0/0) *0*
2.48% Virginia (12/30) *11*
2.35% North Carolina (4/33) *4*
2.24% San Diego St (0/3) *1*
2.16% Pittsburgh (21/89) *8*
1.72% Ole Miss (90/317) *43*
1.39% Buffalo (0/0) *0*
1.32% Kansas St (2/6) *10*
1.32% Baylor (1/6) *5*
1.25% Tulane (0/1) *4*
1.21% Washington (0/0) *0*
1.15% West Virginia (0/2) *0*
1.09% Kentucky (26/115) *14*
1.08% SMU (0/4) *3*
0.96% Boston College (6/26) *0*
0.77% Wyoming (0/1) *2*
0.74% Western Michigan (0/0) *0*
0.72% Purdue (27/78) *13*
0.72% FAU (0/0) *0*
0.62% Colorado (0/0) *0*
0.61% Toledo (0/0) *0*
0.57% Minnesota (16/61) *7*
0.54% Louisville (3/3) *0*
0.54% Nevada (0/0) *0*
0.52% Mississippi St (26/114) *7*
0.52% Washington St (0/0) *0*
0.5% UTSA (0/0) *0*
0.45% Nebraska (17/23) *0*
0.42% LSU (12/38) *2*
0.41% Maryland (25/102) *5*
0.39% Texas Tech (0/0) *4*
0.38% Indiana (15/69) *12*
0.38% Kansas (0/0) *0*
0.3% Louisiana (0/0) *0*
0.29% Georgia Tech (0/0) *0*
0.29% UAB (0/0) *0*
0.26% Michigan St (8/47) *9*
0.25% Arkansas (9/31) *14*
0.24% Ball St (0/0) *0*
0.23% NC State (0/0) *0*
0.22% Army (20/98) *2*
0.2% Houston (0/0) *0*
0.2% Coastal Carolina (0/0) *0*
0.19% South Carolina (12/24) *0*
0.19% Utah St (0/0) *0*
0.17% Eastern Michigan (0/0) *0*
0.16% Florida St (0/0) *0*
0.15% Oregon St (0/0) *0*
0.14% Central Michigan (0/0) *0*
0.13% Duke (2/2) *0*
0.1% Northwestern (2/4) *3*
0.1% Fresno St (0/0) *0*
0.1% San Jose St (0/0) *0*
0.1% Charlotte (0/0) *0*
0.09% Tulsa (0/0) *0*
0.08% Syracuse (0/0) *0*
0.07% Arizona (0/0) *0*
0.07% Kent St (0/0) *0*
0.06% Missouri (0/9) *0*
0.06% Illinois (0/0) *0*
0.06% California (0/0) *0*
0.06% New Mexico (0/0) *0*
0.06% Troy (0/0) *0*
0.05% Vanderbilt (0/0) *0*
0.05% Navy (0/0) *0*
0.05% La Tech (0/0) *0*
0.05% North Texas (0/0) *0*
0.04% Rutgers (2/5) *2*
0.04% WKU (0/0) *0*
0.03% Colorado St (0/0) *0*
0.03% Middle Tennessee (0/0) *0*
0.03% FIU (0/0) *0*
0.02% East Carolina (0/0) *0*
0.02% UTEP (0/0) *0*
0.02% South Alabama (0/0) *0*
0.02% Georgia St (0/0) *0*
0.01% UNLV (0/0) *0*
0.01% Southern Miss (0/0) *0*
0.01% Ohio (0/0) *0*
0.01% Ga Southern (0/0) *0*

6+6 Playoff, B=Bye, C=Champ First Round, A=At Large First Round
H=Home Game First Round, X=Champ but No Playoff (total 10,000 sims)
Code:
B:321 C:73 A:1924 H:895 X:5 Florida
B:3697 C:134 A:4854 H:3904 X:5 Georgia
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Tennessee
B:8 C:0 A:72 H:29 X:0 South Carolina
B:35 C:29 A:351 H:126 X:5 Kentucky
B:2 C:2 A:33 H:10 X:2 Missouri
B:0 C:4 A:0 H:2 X:1 Vanderbilt
B:4801 C:83 A:4150 H:3389 X:0 Alabama
B:24 C:5 A:110 H:37 X:0 LSU
B:268 C:39 A:1873 H:964 X:1 Auburn
B:2 C:0 A:145 H:56 X:0 Arkansas
B:26 C:13 A:792 H:398 X:1 Ole Miss
B:488 C:32 A:3316 H:1853 X:0 Texas A&M
B:8 C:10 A:357 H:136 X:1 Mississippi St
B:0 C:5 A:0 H:2 X:12 Florida St
B:3759 C:2463 A:555 H:682 X:590 Clemson
B:31 C:39 A:91 H:41 X:23 Boston College
B:107 C:141 A:370 H:149 X:120 Wake Forest
B:7 C:24 A:15 H:6 X:21 Louisville
B:1 C:14 A:0 H:0 X:8 NC State
B:0 C:6 A:0 H:0 X:2 Syracuse
B:89 C:74 A:336 H:121 X:25 Pittsburgh
B:585 C:544 A:731 H:334 X:148 Miami
B:15 C:11 A:4 H:1 X:3 Georgia Tech
B:299 C:342 A:715 H:312 X:152 Virginia Tech
B:73 C:102 A:161 H:60 X:51 Virginia
B:62 C:103 A:121 H:43 X:63 North Carolina
B:8 C:3 A:2 H:0 X:0 Duke
B:0 C:0 A:7466 H:6091 X:0 Notre Dame
B:7 C:4 A:251 H:92 X:0 Maryland
B:766 C:56 A:5457 H:3712 X:1 Penn State
B:538 C:30 A:4191 H:2605 X:0 Michigan
B:7 C:3 A:130 H:52 X:0 Michigan St
B:3338 C:375 A:3590 H:2299 X:7 Ohio St
B:0 C:0 A:15 H:7 X:0 Rutgers
B:10 C:2 A:226 H:81 X:0 Indiana
B:780 C:137 A:3204 H:1716 X:7 Wisconsin
B:6 C:0 A:2 H:0 X:0 Illinois
B:23 C:9 A:233 H:105 X:1 Purdue
B:5 C:0 A:10 H:6 X:0 Northwestern
B:17 C:13 A:230 H:82 X:5 Minnesota
B:3780 C:165 A:4642 H:3667 X:3 Iowa
B:17 C:9 A:53 H:29 X:4 Nebraska
B:21 C:35 A:5 H:5 X:59 West Virginia
B:19 C:7 A:7 H:4 X:13 Kansas
B:50 C:59 A:108 H:52 X:13 Kansas St
B:70 C:116 A:34 H:14 X:105 Iowa St
B:6030 C:1061 A:1265 H:1196 X:126 Oklahoma
B:240 C:219 A:302 H:113 X:111 OK State
B:204 C:180 A:309 H:133 X:63 TCU
B:351 C:560 A:199 H:94 X:247 Texas
B:24 C:11 A:14 H:5 X:1 Texas Tech
B:29 C:60 A:68 H:35 X:38 Baylor
B:9 C:20 A:4 H:6 X:34 Colorado
B:1 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:4 Arizona
B:272 C:560 A:219 H:120 X:515 Arizona St
B:108 C:335 A:60 H:32 X:392 USC
B:625 C:516 A:788 H:393 X:182 UCLA
B:40 C:161 A:23 H:6 X:268 Utah
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:6 California
B:3081 C:1604 A:1101 H:870 X:419 Oregon
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:13 Oregon St
B:45 C:247 A:34 H:9 X:487 Stanford
B:1 C:8 A:0 H:0 X:115 Washington
B:11 C:18 A:2 H:1 X:24 Washington St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 UConn
B:1086 C:1811 A:324 H:327 X:1441 Cincinnati
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:4 USF
B:1890 C:1553 A:588 H:558 X:613 UCF
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:9 Temple
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:2 East Carolina
B:0 C:30 A:0 H:0 X:86 Houston
B:41 C:101 A:38 H:12 X:129 SMU
B:206 C:342 A:160 H:72 X:269 Memphis
B:0 C:11 A:0 H:0 X:43 Tulsa
B:29 C:141 A:16 H:14 X:224 Tulane
B:2 C:6 A:0 H:0 X:29 Navy
B:0 C:0 A:2757 H:1694 X:0 BYU
B:411 C:838 A:272 H:160 X:926 Air Force
B:0 C:6 A:0 H:0 X:61 Colorado St
B:30 C:122 A:30 H:10 X:192 Wyoming
B:4 C:4 A:0 H:2 X:12 New Mexico
B:379 C:1366 A:49 H:124 X:2788 Boise St
B:13 C:19 A:2 H:2 X:103 Utah St
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:48 UNLV
B:109 C:301 A:42 H:26 X:1033 San Diego St
B:23 C:76 A:0 H:4 X:487 Nevada
B:4 C:23 A:0 H:1 X:251 Fresno St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:52 Hawaii
B:0 C:28 A:0 H:0 X:414 San Jose St
B:3 C:13 A:0 H:0 X:482 La Tech
B:2 C:3 A:0 H:0 X:25 UTEP
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:34 Rice
B:1 C:4 A:0 H:0 X:82 North Texas
B:30 C:74 A:4 H:4 X:783 UTSA
B:12 C:64 A:1 H:0 X:1156 UAB
B:0 C:3 A:0 H:0 X:231 Southern Miss
B:2 C:5 A:0 H:0 X:26 Old Dominion
B:0 C:14 A:0 H:0 X:377 WKU
B:10 C:8 A:0 H:0 X:94 Charlotte
B:763 C:1642 A:95 H:170 X:2750 Marshall
B:0 C:4 A:0 H:1 X:50 Middle Tennessee
B:0 C:5 A:0 H:0 X:23 FIU
B:14 C:121 A:0 H:4 X:1213 FAU
B:0 C:0 A:246 H:84 X:0 Army
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 UMass
B:34 C:285 A:1 H:3 X:3824 Buffalo
B:0 C:4 A:0 H:0 X:151 Ohio
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:11 Bowling Green
B:6 C:4 A:0 H:2 X:571 Kent St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:370 Miami(OH)
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:34 Akron
B:3 C:26 A:0 H:2 X:339 Central Michigan
B:28 C:144 A:2 H:5 X:1213 Western Michigan
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:71 Northern Illinois
B:9 C:169 A:0 H:4 X:1766 Toledo
B:18 C:48 A:0 H:3 X:664 Ball St
B:1 C:26 A:0 H:0 X:305 Eastern Michigan
B:0 C:0 A:47 H:12 X:0 Liberty
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 New Mexico St
B:5 C:8 A:0 H:0 X:459 Troy
B:0 C:5 A:0 H:0 X:370 Arkansas St
B:4 C:62 A:0 H:0 X:2967 Louisiana
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:17 La Monroe
B:1 C:5 A:0 H:0 X:246 South Alabama
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:76 Texas St
B:0 C:4 A:0 H:0 X:100 Georgia St
B:0 C:4 A:0 H:0 X:153 Ga Southern
B:82 C:536 A:2 H:16 X:3867 App St
B:4 C:48 A:0 H:2 X:1100 Coastal Carolina
09-12-2021 02:29 PM
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Crayton Online
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Posts: 1,059
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 80
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #7
RE: Playoff Odds
Update on 6+6 Playoff. SEC and Big Ten creep up in #of at larges and #of home games. BYU creeps as well after defeating Utah. The Pac-12, Notre Dame, and Big 12 sink a bit after lackluster weekends. The AAC and ACC kept about even with no blockbuster OOC games this weekend.

Where do the conference champs go?
BYE / First Round / Miss Playoff
95 / 4 / 0 SEC
91 / 7 / 0 Big Ten
69 / 22 / 7 Big 12
49 / 38 / 15 ACC
41 / 34 / 24 Pac-12
32 / 39 / 28 American
9 / 27 / 62 MW
8 / 19 / 72 CUSA
0 / 6 / 92 SB+MAC

At Larges (vs. last week)
2.2 Big Ten (+.2)
1.8 SEC (+.2)
0.7 Notre Dame (-.1)
0.3 ACC (==)
0.3 BYU (+.1)
0.2 Big 12 (-.3)
0.2 Pac-12 (-.1)
0.1 American (==)
0.1 Army+Air Force (+.1)
0.0 everyone else

Home Games
1.4 Big Ten (+.1)
1.2 SEC (+.1)
0.6 Notre Dame (-.2)
0.2 ACC (==)
0.2 Big 12 (-.1)
0.2 BYU (+.1)
0.1 Pac-12 (-.1)
0.1 American (==)
0.0 everyone else
(This post was last modified: 09-14-2021 09:19 AM by Crayton.)
09-14-2021 09:18 AM
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Crayton Online
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Posts: 1,059
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 80
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #8
RE: Playoff Odds
Now just doing a big data dump. With UCF and Boise losing, Cincinnati now has a 47% chance of claiming that G5 spot and an 87% chance of making the 4-team playoff... if they go undefeated (8% chance that happens).

Michigan (+12%) and Penn State (+24%) got the biggest playoff gains as Ohio State continues to look a little weaker. Georgia climbed (+7%) as they put on a show vs. USCe and their biggest obstacle, Alabama, looked vulnerable. UCF (-8%) took the biggest plunge, though perhaps the computer thought too highly of them to begin with. Notre Dame (-7%) faces more real threats upcoming vs. Wisconsin and Cincinnati than originally projecged. And Oklahoma (-6%) has had only 1 truly good game this year.

Code:
Rank (W-L) Rating TEAM (Last Week)
#1 (3-0) 25.3 Alabama (W 31-29 vs. Florida)+0
#2 (3-0) 28.8 Georgia (W 40-13 vs. South Carolina)+2
#3 (3-0) 21.2 Iowa (W 30-7 vs. Kent St)+0
#4 (3-0) 23.1 Oklahoma (W 23-16 vs. Nebraska)+1
#5 (2-1) 21.7 Ohio St (W 41-20 vs. Tulsa)-3
#6 (3-0) 8.9 Notre Dame (W 27-13 vs. Purdue)+0
#7 (3-0) 19.3 Penn State (W 28-20 vs. Auburn)+1
#8 (3-0) 23.8 Michigan (W 63-10 vs. Northern Illinois)+3
#9 (2-1) 20.7 Clemson (W 14-8 vs. Georgia Tech)-2
#10 (1-1) 16.9 Wisconsin ---BYE----1
#11 (3-0) 14.5 Texas A&M (W 34-0 vs. New Mexico)-1
#12 (3-0) 14.1 Oregon (W 48-7 vs. FCS)+1
#13 (2-1) 13.9 Texas (W 58-0 vs. Rice)+3
#14 (3-0) 5.5 BYU (W 27-17 vs. Arizona St)+1
#15 (2-1) 15.5 Florida (L 29-31 vs. Alabama)-3
#16 (3-0) 15.2 Cincinnati (W 38-24 vs. Indiana)+3
#17 (3-0) 2 OK State (W 21-20 vs. Boise St)+0
#18 (2-1) 19.9 Auburn (L 20-28 vs. Penn State)-4
#19 (3-0) 17.6 Ole Miss (W 61-21 vs. Tulane)+7
#20 (2-1) 9.2 Minnesota (W 30-0 vs. Colorado)+9
#21 (2-0) 7.2 TCU ---BYE----1
#22 (2-1) 6.5 Iowa St (W 48-3 vs. UNLV)+5
#23 (2-1) 9.9 LSU (W 49-21 vs. Central Michigan)+7
#24 (2-1) 7.7 USC (W 45-14 vs. Washington St)+4
#25 (2-1) 12.6 North Carolina (W 59-39 vs. Virginia)+9
#26 (3-0) 8.9 Wake Forest (W 35-14 vs. Florida St)+7
#27 (2-1) 13.1 West Virginia (W 27-21 vs. Virginia Tech)+19
#28 (3-0) 8 Arkansas (W 45-10 vs. Ga Southern)+14
#29 (3-0) 2.6 Kansas St (W 28-17 vs. Nevada)+10
#30 (2-1) 10.1 UCF (L 35-42 vs. Louisville)-12
#31 (3-0) 9.1 Michigan St (W 38-17 vs. Miami)+19
#32 (3-0) 9.7 Baylor (W 45-7 vs. Kansas)+9
#33 (3-0) 2 Kentucky (W 28-23 vs. FCS)-1
#34 (1-2) 0.4 Miami (L 17-38 vs. Michigan St)-12
#35 (3-0) 0 Memphis (W 31-29 vs. Mississippi St)+9
#36 (3-0) 11.5 Maryland (W 20-17 vs. Illinois)+12
#37 (2-1) 8.9 Virginia Tech (L 21-27 vs. West Virginia)-12
#38 (2-1) 8.8 UCLA (L 37-40 vs. Fresno St)-17
#39 (2-1) 0.5 Stanford (W 41-23 vs. Vanderbilt)+6
#40 (1-2) 9.5 Boise St (L 20-21 vs. OK State)-17
#41 (2-1) 2.7 Arizona St (L 17-27 vs. BYU)-17
#42 (1-2) 7.3 Indiana (L 24-38 vs. Cincinnati)-11
#43 (2-1) 3.9 Purdue (L 13-27 vs. Notre Dame)-6
#44 (4-0) 2 Army (W 52-21 vs. UConn)+3
#45 (2-1) -0.2 Western Michigan (W 44-41 vs. Pittsburgh)+10
#46 (2-1) 3.2 Mississippi St (L 29-31 vs. Memphis)-11
#47 (3-0) 0.4 San Diego St (W 33-31 vs. Utah)+10
#48 (2-1) 3.9 Louisville (W 42-35 vs. UCF)+18
#49 (2-1) 5.5 App St (W 44-10 vs. FCS)+3
#50 (2-2) 10.3 Nebraska (L 16-23 vs. Oklahoma)-1
#51 (3-0) 3.6 Texas Tech (W 54-21 vs. FIU)+10
#52 (3-0) 5 Boston College (W 28-3 vs. Temple)+8
#53 (2-1) 5.8 Pittsburgh (L 41-44 vs. Western Michigan)-13
#54 (2-1) 3.4 Missouri (W 59-28 vs. FCS)-1
#55 (2-1) 7.7 Virginia (L 39-59 vs. North Carolina)-12
#56 (3-0) -2.3 Wyoming (W 45-12 vs. Ball St)+8
#57 (3-0) 5 SMU (W 39-37 vs. La Tech)+5
#58 (1-2) 3.4 Washington (W 52-3 vs. Arkansas St)+10
#59 (1-2) 1.4 Utah (L 31-33 vs. San Diego St)-21
#60 (2-1) 0.8 Air Force (L 45-49 vs. Utah St)-24
#61 (2-1) 2.8 South Carolina (L 13-40 vs. Georgia)-2
#63 (2-1) -0.9 Louisiana (W 49-14 vs. Ohio)+6
#64 (2-1) 6.1 NC State (W 45-7 vs. FCS)+6
#65 (2-1) 8.9 Tennessee (W 56-0 vs. FCS)+6
#66 (3-0) 6.6 Rutgers (W 45-13 vs. FCS)-1
#67 (3-0) 8.4 Liberty (W 45-17 vs. Old Dominion)+8
#68 (3-1) 7.7 Fresno St (W 40-37 vs. UCLA)+19
#69 (2-1) 7.4 Marshall (L 38-42 vs. East Carolina)-18
#70 (1-2) 3.6 Tulane (L 21-61 vs. Ole Miss)-12
#71 (1-2) 4.6 Buffalo (L 25-28 vs. Coastal Carolina)-15
#72 (2-1) 3.2 Houston (W 45-0 vs. FCS)+4
#73 (1-2) -1.8 Northwestern (L 23-30 vs. Duke)-19
#74 (3-0) -5 Utah St (W 49-45 vs. Air Force)+12
#75 (3-0) 4.3 UTSA (W 27-13 vs. Middle Tennessee)+13
#76 (2-1) 1.3 UAB (W 40-6 vs. North Texas)+7
#77 (2-1) -4.3 San Jose St (W 17-13 vs. Hawaii)+3
#78 (2-1) 3.3 FAU (W 45-14 vs. FCS)-1
#79 (2-1) 1.1 Syracuse (W 62-24 vs. FCS)+3
#80 (2-1) 0.3 Oregon St (W 42-0 vs. FCS)+5
#81 (2-1) 4 Troy (W 21-9 vs. Southern Miss)+14
#82 (2-1) -1 Nevada (L 17-28 vs. Kansas St)-9
#83 (1-2) -2.6 Colorado (L 0-30 vs. Minnesota)-11
#84 (1-2) -13.9 Ball St (L 12-45 vs. Wyoming)-17
#85 (1-2) -3.1 Toledo (L 6-22 vs. Colorado St)-22
#86 (2-1) -9 Eastern Michigan (W 42-28 vs. UMass)-5
#87 (1-2) -3.7 Miami(OH) (W 42-7 vs. FCS)+5
#88 (1-3) -1.7 Illinois (L 17-20 vs. Maryland)-4
#89 (2-1) -3.2 Duke (W 30-23 vs. Northwestern)+10
#90 (1-2) -4.2 Central Michigan (L 21-49 vs. LSU)-12
#91 (1-2) -1.9 Georgia Tech (L 8-14 vs. Clemson)-2
#92 (0-3) -7.2 Tulsa (L 20-41 vs. Ohio St)-1
#93 (1-2) -8.6 Washington St (L 14-45 vs. USC)-14
#94 (1-2) -2.2 Kent St (L 7-30 vs. Iowa)-4
#95 (1-2) -4.3 California (W 42-30 vs. FCS)-2
#96 (1-2) -13.1 Northern Illinois (L 10-63 vs. Michigan)-2
#97 (1-1) 1.2 WKU ---BYE---+1
#98 (0-3) -14.6 Navy ---BYE----2
#99 (1-2) -16.2 Georgia St (W 20-9 vs. Charlotte)+10
#100 (1-2) -6.2 East Carolina (W 42-38 vs. Marshall)+13
#101 (3-0) -10.2 South Alabama (W 28-21 vs. FCS)+2
#102 (1-2) -17.7 Ga Southern (L 10-45 vs. Arkansas)-5
#103 (0-3) -8.5 Florida St (L 14-35 vs. Wake Forest)-2
#104 (1-2) -15.1 USF (W 38-17 vs. FCS)+6
#105 (1-2) -5.1 La Tech (L 37-39 vs. SMU)-5
#106 (2-1) -14.8 New Mexico (L 0-34 vs. Texas A&M)-2
#107 (2-1) -8.8 Charlotte (L 9-20 vs. Georgia St)-2
#108 (1-2) -16 Arkansas St (L 3-52 vs. Washington)-6
#109 (1-3) -11.9 Hawaii (L 13-17 vs. San Jose St)-1
#110 (0-3) -17.7 Ohio (L 14-49 vs. Louisiana)-3
#111 (1-2) -19.5 Temple (L 3-28 vs. Boston College)+1
#112 (1-2) -9.1 Southern Miss (L 9-21 vs. Troy)-6
#113 (1-2) -15.3 Colorado St (W 22-6 vs. Toledo)+10
#114 (1-2) -23 Kansas (L 7-45 vs. Baylor)+0
#115 (1-2) -5.4 Middle Tennessee (L 13-27 vs. UTSA)+0
#116 (1-2) -19.6 Vanderbilt (L 23-41 vs. Stanford)+1
#117 (1-2) -13.2 North Texas (L 6-40 vs. UAB)+1
#118 (1-2) -15 Texas St (L 34-42 vs. FCS)-2
#119 (1-2) -11.6 Old Dominion (L 17-45 vs. Liberty)+1
#120 (0-3) -22.3 Rice (L 0-58 vs. Texas)+2
#121 (0-3) -16.1 Arizona (L 19-21 vs. FCS)-10
#122 (1-1) -23.1 La Monroe (W 12-7 vs. FCS)+2
#123 (1-2) -11.8 FIU (L 21-54 vs. Texas Tech)-4
#124 (2-1) -17.2 UTEP ---BYE----3
#125 (1-2) -26.8 Akron (W 35-14 vs. FCS)+0
#126 (1-2) -21.1 Bowling Green (W 27-10 vs. FCS)+1
#127 (0-3) -24.3 UNLV (L 3-48 vs. Iowa St)-1
#128 (1-3) -25.6 New Mexico St (W 43-35 vs. FCS)+0
#129 (0-3) -30.3 UMass (L 28-42 vs. Eastern Michigan)+0
#130 (0-4) -34.8 UConn (L 21-52 vs. Army)+0

100% (12-0)+W Georgia (18%)
100% (12-0)+W Alabama (19%)
100% (12-0)+W Penn State (1%)
100% (11-1)+W Penn State (6%)
100% (12-0)+W Michigan (1%)
100% (11-1)+W Michigan (4%)
100% (11-1)+W Ohio St (7%)
100% (12-0)+W Iowa (9%)
100% (12-0)+W Oklahoma (14%)
99% (12-0)+L  Penn State (1%)
99% (11-1)+W Iowa (18%)
98% (12-0)+W Oregon (12%)
98% (12-0)+L  Michigan (1%)
98% (11-1)+W Alabama (21%)
97% (12-0)      Notre Dame (10%)
96% (11-1)      Penn State (4%)
96% (11-1)+W Texas A&M (2%)
94% (11-1)+W Georgia (19%)
93% (11-1)      Michigan (3%)
93% (12-0)+L  Iowa (7%)
92% (12-0)+W Cincinnati (7%)
90% (10-2)+W Michigan (3%)
89% (11-1)      Iowa (1%)
87% (10-2)+W Penn State (3%)
87% (12-0)+L  Alabama (13%)
87% (10-2)+W Wisconsin (2%)
84% (11-1)+W Florida (1%)
82% (10-2)+W Ohio St (15%)
82% (12-0)+L  Georgia (17%)
82% (11-1)+W Oklahoma (27%)
82% (12-0)      BYU (9%)
79% (12-0)+L  Texas A&M (1%)
72% (12-0)+L  Oklahoma (4%)
69% (11-1)      Ole Miss (3%)
69% (11-1)+L  Penn State (6%)
67% (11-1)      Alabama (5%)
62% (11-1)      Georgia (2%)
60% (12-0)+W Memphis (1%)
60% (11-1)+L  Michigan (5%)
58% (10-2)+W Iowa (11%)
58% (11-1)+L  Wisconsin (1%)
54% (11-1)      Notre Dame (27%)
51% (11-1)+L  Ohio St (6%)
48% (11-1)      Texas A&M (3%)
47% (10-2)+W Alabama (4%)
43% (11-1)+W Clemson (22%)
41% (10-2)      Penn State (23%)
40% (10-2)      Wisconsin (4%)
33% (10-2)+W Georgia (6%)
33% (10-2)+W Texas A&M (1%)
32% (12-0)+W San Diego St (2%)
32% (11-1)+L  Iowa (15%)
28% (10-2)      Michigan (21%)
27% (9-3)+W Ohio St (5%)
26% (11-1)+W Oregon (23%)
26% (10-2)      Maryland (1%)
23% (11-1)+W Wake Forest (1%)
20% (12-0)+L  Oregon (5%)
20% (11-1)+L  Ole Miss (2%)
19% (11-1)+L  Alabama (13%)
18% (10-2)+W Oklahoma (19%)
16% (10-2)      Ohio St (7%)
15% (9-3)+W Wisconsin (2%)
13% (10-2)      Michigan St (3%)
12% (10-2)+W Texas (4%)
12% (11-1)+L  Georgia (18%)
11% (11-1)+L  Texas A&M (4%)
10% (10-2)+L  Michigan (3%)
10% (10-2)+L  Penn State (4%)
10% (11-1)      Wake Forest (1%)
9% (9-3)+W Iowa (1%)
8% (11-1)+L  Texas (1%)
8% (10-2)      Iowa (8%)
8% (11-1)      Oregon (2%)
8% (10-2)+L  Wisconsin (4%)
7% (11-1)      Boston College (1%)
5% (11-1)+L  Florida (2%)
5% (12-0)+L  Cincinnati (2%)
5% (10-2)+W Florida (1%)
5% (10-2)+L  Ohio St (11%)
4% (10-2)      Alabama (11%)
3% (10-2)      Ole Miss (16%)
3% (11-1)+W Cincinnati (26%)
3% (11-1)+L  Oklahoma (7%)
3% (10-2)      Minnesota (3%)
3% (10-2)+L  Auburn (1%)
2% (10-2)      Georgia (6%)
2% (10-2)+W TCU (1%)
2% (10-2)      Notre Dame (31%)
2% (10-2)+W Stanford (1%)
2% (10-2)+W OK State (2%)
1% (9-3)+W Oklahoma (3%)
1% (10-2)+W Virginia Tech (1%)
1% (10-2)+W Clemson (27%)
1% (10-2)      Oklahoma (2%)
1% (11-1)      BYU (28%)
1% (11-1)+W UCF (2%)
1% (9-3)      Penn State (29%)
1% (10-2)+W UCLA (1%)
0% (9-3)      Wisconsin (18%)
0% (10-2)+L  Iowa (8%)
0% (11-1)+W Western Michigan (4%)
0% (10-2)      Texas A&M (21%)
0% (10-2)+W North Carolina (3%)
0% (9-3)      Michigan (28%)
0% (11-1)+L  OK State (1%)
0% (10-2)+W Oregon (13%)
0% (10-2)+W Wake Forest (2%)
0% (11-1)+W Memphis (5%)
0% (9-3)      Ohio St (21%)
0% (9-3)+W Texas (7%)
0% (10-2)      Florida (15%)
0% (9-3)      Auburn (10%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (38%)
100% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (0%)
100% 0-loss CHAMP Big Ten (12%)
100% 0-loss CHAMP Big 12 (14%)
99% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (38%)
98% 0-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (12%)
96% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (45%)
94% 1-loss at large Big Ten (20%)
87% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (8%)
82% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (30%)
76% 2-loss CHAMP Big Ten (37%)
75% 1-loss at large SEC (49%)
71% 1-loss at large Big 12 (4%)
42% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (25%)
37% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (14%)
34% 2-loss at large Big Ten (110%)
28% 0-loss CHAMP MWC (3%)
27% 1-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (25%)
20% 3-loss CHAMP Big Ten (10%)
17% 1-loss at large Pac 12 (8%)
14% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (30%)
10% 1-loss at large ACC (3%)
6% 2-loss at large SEC (122%)
4% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (0%)
2% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (34%)
2% 2-loss at large Big 12 (18%)
2% 1-loss at large AAC (7%)
2% 3-loss CHAMP SEC (1%)
1% 3-loss at large Big Ten (184%)
1% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (38%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP MAC (5%)
0% 4-loss CHAMP Big Ten (1%)
0% 2-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (22%)
0% 3-loss CHAMP Big 12 (18%)
0% 2-loss at large Pac 12 (24%)
0% 3-loss at large SEC (173%)
0% 2-loss at large ACC (36%)

Playoff %
1) 61.92% Alabama
2) 56.96% Georgia
3) 49.07% Iowa
4) 44.4% Oklahoma
5) 30.88% Penn State
6) 27.83% Ohio St
7) 26.4% Notre Dame
8) 24.08% Michigan
9) 20.22% Oregon
10) 10.31% Clemson
11) 8.49% BYU
12) 7.83% Cincinnati
13) 6.87% Wisconsin
14) 6.68% Texas A&M
15) 4.75% Ole Miss
16) 1.13% Texas
17) 1.12% Florida
18) 1.11% Michigan St
19) 1.05% OK State
20) 0.81% San Diego St
21) 0.76% Auburn
22) 0.72% Memphis
23) 0.71% Maryland
24) 0.66% Wake Forest
25) 0.43% Minnesota
26) 0.4% Kansas St
27) 0.4% TCU
28) 0.37% North Carolina
29) 0.33% Army
30) 0.32% Baylor
31) 0.28% USC
32) 0.24% Liberty
33) 0.23% Stanford
34) 0.21% Boston College
35) 0.17% Virginia Tech
36) 0.17% UCLA
37) 0.16% Kentucky
38) 0.13% Wyoming
39) 0.12% Rutgers
40) 0.12% Texas Tech
41) 0.11% West Virginia
42) 0.1% Arkansas
43) 0.09% Louisville
44) 0.09% Purdue
45) 0.07% Utah St
46) 0.06% Syracuse
47) 0.06% Iowa St
48) 0.05% South Carolina
49) 0.05% NC State
50) 0.05% SMU
51) 0.04% LSU
52) 0.04% Nebraska
53) 0.04% Western Michigan
54) 0.03% Tennessee
55) 0.03% Missouri
56) 0.03% Pittsburgh
57) 0.03% Georgia Tech
58) 0.03% Virginia
59) 0.03% Indiana
60) 0.03% Oregon St
61) 0.03% UCF
62) 0.03% UTSA
63) 0.02% Mississippi St
64) 0.02% Arizona St

Top G5 Champ %
1) 47.09% Cincinnati
2) 9.2% UCF
3) 8.16% Memphis
4) 7.95% San Diego St
5) 4.9% Western Michigan
6) 3.01% Wyoming
7) 2.29% App St
8) 2.27% SMU
9) 1.97% UTSA
10) 1.45% Boise St
11) 1.37% Utah St
12) 1.2% Fresno St
13) 1.18% Marshall
14) 1.08% UAB
15) 0.87% FAU
16) 0.79% Louisiana
17) 0.62% Houston
18) 0.42% Air Force
19) 0.38% San Jose St
20) 0.34% Tulane
21) 0.17% Nevada
22) 0.16% Troy
23) 0.15% WKU
24) 0.14% Eastern Michigan
25) 0.11% USF
26) 0.09% Navy
27) 0.06% Ball St
28) 0.06% South Alabama
29) 0.04% New Mexico
30) 0.04% Georgia St
31) 0.03% Buffalo
32) 0.03% Kent St
33) 0.03% Central Michigan
34) 0.02% Hawaii
35) 0.02% Old Dominion
36) 0.02% Miami(OH)
37) 0.02% Akron
38) 0.01% Colorado St
39) 0.01% Southern Miss
40) 0.01% Toledo
41) 0.01% Arkansas St
42) 0.01% La Monroe

5-1-2 TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*
71.63% Oklahoma (28/48) *613*
69.99% Alabama (730/1033) *1713*
66.14% Georgia (246/363) *1937*
61.47% Clemson (13/28) *1*
60.41% Iowa (466/714) *1519*
53.89% Oregon (82/149) *157*
47.57% Cincinnati (8/17) *40*
41.71% Ohio St (660/1043) *588*
39.08% Penn State (1831/3200) *943*
30.38% Michigan (1250/2240) *786*
29.9% Notre Dame (2409/4797) *581*
18.8% USC (0/2) *1*
15.36% Texas (0/1) *17*
13.07% Wisconsin (345/688) *257*
11.08% Texas A&M (458/1063) *268*
10.9% North Carolina (27/72) *3*
9.51% Virginia Tech (1/6) *3*
9.2% UCF (0/0) *0*
8.24% Memphis (2/8) *6*
8.01% UCLA (0/1) *1*
7.95% San Diego St (0/3) *0*
7.87% Ole Miss (440/1205) *194*
7.81% Stanford (4/13) *2*
7.43% Arizona St (0/0) *0*
6.54% Wake Forest (38/139) *17*
6.39% OK State (9/19) *40*
5.41% BYU (521/1558) *20*
4.93% Miami (0/0) *0*
4.9% Western Michigan (0/0) *0*
3.65% Florida (77/203) *50*
3.3% TCU (4/8) *24*
3.01% Wyoming (0/1) *0*
2.97% West Virginia (1/3) *5*
2.85% Washington (0/0) *0*
2.59% Iowa St (0/0) *2*
2.5% Baylor (2/7) *8*
2.29% App St (0/0) *0*
2.28% SMU (0/0) *1*
2.23% Louisville (5/16) *0*
2.23% Utah (0/0) *0*
2.22% Coastal Carolina (0/0) *0*
2.12% Auburn (39/117) *26*
1.97% UTSA (0/0) *0*
1.91% Pittsburgh (0/1) *0*
1.87% Kansas St (3/19) *9*
1.67% Minnesota (67/187) *22*
1.59% Boston College (6/49) *3*
1.45% Boise St (0/0) *0*
1.38% Utah St (1/2) *0*
1.29% Michigan St (40/268) *51*
1.24% Maryland (68/229) *36*
1.2% Fresno St (0/0) *0*
1.18% Marshall (0/0) *0*
1.08% UAB (0/0) *0*
0.94% Virginia (2/9) *1*
0.87% FAU (0/0) *0*
0.86% Texas Tech (1/1) *6*
0.79% Louisiana (0/0) *0*
0.66% Arkansas (35/116) *20*
0.62% Houston (0/0) *0*
0.6% Kentucky (19/76) *1*
0.52% NC State (0/4) *0*
0.42% Colorado (0/0) *0*
0.42% Air Force (0/4) *0*
0.41% Oregon St (0/1) *0*
0.38% San Jose St (0/0) *0*
0.34% Tulane (0/0) *0*
0.33% LSU (9/23) *5*
0.27% Syracuse (0/0) *0*
0.27% Purdue (7/15) *8*
0.27% Arizona (0/0) *0*
0.27% Army (25/89) *2*
0.21% Kansas (0/0) *0*
0.19% Georgia Tech (0/0) *0*
0.19% Washington St (0/0) *0*
0.17% Nevada (0/0) *0*
0.16% Duke (1/1) *0*
0.16% Rutgers (7/24) *2*
0.16% California (0/0) *0*
0.16% Troy (0/0) *0*
0.15% WKU (0/0) *0*
0.14% Eastern Michigan (0/0) *0*
0.13% Nebraska (3/6) *2*
0.11% USF (0/0) *0*
0.1% Mississippi St (1/7) *1*
0.09% Navy (0/0) *0*
0.08% Tennessee (0/3) *1*
0.08% South Carolina (5/24) *1*
0.08% Missouri (0/6) *4*
0.07% Northwestern (0/0) *0*
0.06% Illinois (0/0) *0*
0.06% Ball St (0/0) *0*
0.06% South Alabama (0/0) *0*
0.05% Florida St (0/0) *0*
0.05% Indiana (1/10) *0*
0.05% Liberty (3/61) *2*
0.04% New Mexico (0/0) *0*
0.04% Georgia St (0/0) *0*
0.03% Buffalo (0/0) *0*
0.03% Kent St (0/0) *0*
0.03% Central Michigan (0/0) *0*
0.02% Vanderbilt (0/0) *0*
0.02% Hawaii (0/0) *0*
0.02% Old Dominion (0/0) *0*
0.02% Miami(OH) (0/0) *0*
0.02% Akron (0/0) *0*
0.01% Colorado St (0/0) *0*
0.01% Southern Miss (0/0) *0*
0.01% Toledo (0/0) *0*
0.01% Arkansas St (0/0) *0*
0.01% La Monroe (0/0) *0*

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 BYE
B:230 C:46 A:1172 H:345 X:5 Florida
B:4770 C:92 A:5049 H:4226 X:4 Georgia
B:5 C:3 A:6 H:5 X:0 Tennessee
B:6 C:0 A:50 H:26 X:0 South Carolina
B:35 C:10 A:304 H:100 X:3 Kentucky
B:3 C:2 A:24 H:11 X:0 Missouri
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:1 Vanderbilt
B:5032 C:34 A:5047 H:4224 X:0 Alabama
B:18 C:3 A:147 H:34 X:0 LSU
B:157 C:35 A:863 H:314 X:2 Auburn
B:12 C:0 A:446 H:168 X:0 Arkansas
B:152 C:6 A:2843 H:1576 X:1 Ole Miss
B:434 C:14 A:3316 H:1783 X:0 Texas A&M
B:5 C:4 A:44 H:9 X:0 Mississippi St
B:1 C:3 A:0 H:0 X:3 Florida St
B:3816 C:2623 A:481 H:562 X:395 Clemson
B:73 C:79 A:161 H:59 X:14 Boston College
B:275 C:316 A:469 H:232 X:92 Wake Forest
B:71 C:130 A:75 H:24 X:38 Louisville
B:15 C:38 A:10 H:7 X:7 NC State
B:10 C:12 A:13 H:3 X:9 Syracuse
B:38 C:133 A:17 H:5 X:48 Pittsburgh
B:62 C:316 A:10 H:4 X:171 Miami
B:9 C:6 A:0 H:1 X:6 Georgia Tech
B:195 C:509 A:92 H:42 X:346 Virginia Tech
B:26 C:66 A:57 H:25 X:47 Virginia
B:282 C:561 A:238 H:102 X:267 North Carolina
B:1 C:8 A:4 H:1 X:8 Duke
B:0 C:0 A:7518 H:5691 X:0 Notre Dame
B:22 C:1 A:783 H:321 X:0 Maryland
B:1208 C:7 A:7129 H:5276 X:0 Penn State
B:1136 C:12 A:6410 H:4373 X:0 Michigan
B:42 C:0 A:972 H:414 X:0 Michigan St
B:3125 C:139 A:4719 H:2904 X:3 Ohio St
B:8 C:1 A:94 H:36 X:0 Rutgers
B:5 C:0 A:50 H:10 X:0 Indiana
B:709 C:77 A:3193 H:1658 X:1 Wisconsin
B:1 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:3 Illinois
B:9 C:5 A:124 H:34 X:0 Purdue
B:0 C:4 A:3 H:1 X:3 Northwestern
B:81 C:10 A:814 H:285 X:0 Minnesota
B:4375 C:126 A:4961 H:3933 X:2 Iowa
B:6 C:2 A:25 H:11 X:0 Nebraska
B:120 C:156 A:69 H:20 X:38 West Virginia
B:4 C:14 A:0 H:0 X:5 Kansas
B:129 C:63 A:169 H:61 X:11 Kansas St
B:105 C:126 A:36 H:9 X:44 Iowa St
B:6553 C:757 A:1485 H:1219 X:25 Oklahoma
B:374 C:223 A:453 H:200 X:40 OK State
B:197 C:120 A:187 H:74 X:29 TCU
B:788 C:729 A:274 H:142 X:107 Texas
B:44 C:40 A:28 H:11 X:2 Texas Tech
B:133 C:122 A:119 H:47 X:23 Baylor
B:2 C:15 A:0 H:0 X:27 Colorado
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:27 Arizona
B:109 C:359 A:16 H:9 X:403 Arizona St
B:287 C:983 A:92 H:54 X:754 USC
B:236 C:475 A:135 H:56 X:237 UCLA
B:7 C:84 A:0 H:2 X:172 Utah
B:2 C:5 A:0 H:1 X:10 California
B:4106 C:1442 A:1400 H:1058 X:141 Oregon
B:19 C:14 A:1 H:0 X:9 Oregon St
B:137 C:378 A:46 H:32 X:344 Stanford
B:7 C:98 A:0 H:0 X:215 Washington
B:2 C:10 A:0 H:0 X:7 Washington St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 UConn
B:2759 C:3060 A:344 H:573 X:845 Cincinnati
B:2 C:13 A:0 H:0 X:17 USF
B:224 C:1020 A:16 H:19 X:795 UCF
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:1 Temple
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:8 East Carolina
B:4 C:79 A:0 H:1 X:236 Houston
B:85 C:202 A:21 H:13 X:169 SMU
B:368 C:689 A:215 H:84 X:253 Memphis
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:32 Tulsa
B:9 C:59 A:0 H:0 X:142 Tulane
B:1 C:10 A:0 H:1 X:30 Navy
B:0 C:0 A:3159 H:1689 X:0 BYU
B:55 C:180 A:26 H:13 X:415 Air Force
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:59 Colorado St
B:123 C:381 A:10 H:8 X:566 Wyoming
B:1 C:4 A:0 H:0 X:13 New Mexico
B:58 C:438 A:1 H:8 X:2909 Boise St
B:49 C:209 A:5 H:3 X:887 Utah St
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:30 UNLV
B:323 C:1021 A:52 H:46 X:1332 San Diego St
B:1 C:42 A:0 H:0 X:340 Nevada
B:28 C:206 A:0 H:5 X:656 Fresno St
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:17 Hawaii
B:4 C:70 A:0 H:1 X:703 San Jose St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:377 La Tech
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:23 UTEP
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:8 Rice
B:1 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:21 North Texas
B:59 C:363 A:2 H:9 X:1765 UTSA
B:33 C:187 A:2 H:9 X:1812 UAB
B:1 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:147 Southern Miss
B:1 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:43 Old Dominion
B:7 C:16 A:0 H:0 X:619 WKU
B:1 C:3 A:0 H:0 X:101 Charlotte
B:132 C:366 A:13 H:16 X:2982 Marshall
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:36 Middle Tennessee
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:23 FIU
B:31 C:161 A:0 H:1 X:1802 FAU
B:0 C:0 A:235 H:68 X:0 Army
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 UMass
B:0 C:14 A:0 H:0 X:2770 Buffalo
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:81 Ohio
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:67 Bowling Green
B:1 C:3 A:0 H:0 X:900 Kent St
B:0 C:6 A:0 H:0 X:968 Miami(OH)
B:0 C:3 A:0 H:0 X:60 Akron
B:2 C:7 A:0 H:0 X:367 Central Michigan
B:172 C:899 A:0 H:28 X:2912 Western Michigan
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:81 Northern Illinois
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:898 Toledo
B:1 C:6 A:0 H:0 X:367 Ball St
B:2 C:29 A:0 H:0 X:505 Eastern Michigan
B:0 C:0 A:174 H:59 X:0 Liberty
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 New Mexico St
B:1 C:28 A:0 H:0 X:655 Troy
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:112 Arkansas St
B:12 C:172 A:0 H:2 X:4121 Louisiana
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:31 La Monroe
B:4 C:8 A:0 H:0 X:296 South Alabama
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:56 Texas St
B:0 C:8 A:0 H:0 X:87 Georgia St
B:0 C:4 A:0 H:0 X:58 Ga Southern
B:33 C:466 A:0 H:4 X:3036 App St
B:91 C:381 A:0 H:10 X:1462 Coastal Carolina
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 --
09-19-2021 07:20 AM
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Crayton Online
1st String
*

Posts: 1,059
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 80
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #9
RE: Playoff Odds
This is always a fun chart, looking at what "types" of teams could make the 4-team playoff. Usually I wait a couple more weeks before listing by team, but the breadth of possible playoff teams is narrow enough to not overwhelm this chart. Below includes only teams who have >1% chance of finishing with a given record.

Guarantees >95%
Undefeated: Georgia, Alabama, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Oklahoma, Oregon, Notre Dame
1-loss Champ: Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama, Texas A&M
1-loss non-Champ: Penn State,
Contenders >66%
Undefeated: Cincinnati, BYU
1-loss Champ: Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma
1-loss non-Champ: Iowa, Ole Miss, Alabama, Michigan, Oklahoma
2-loss Champ: Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State
Need Help >33%
Undefeated: Memphis
1-loss Champ: Clemson
1-loss non-Champ: Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas A&M
2-loss Champ: Iowa, Alabama
2-loss non-Champ: Wisconsin, Penn State
Longshots >5%
Undefeated: San Diego St
1-loss Champ: Oregon
1-loss non-Champ: Wake Forest, Oregon, Boston College, Cincinnati
2-loss Champ: Georgia, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Texas, Florida
2-loss non-Champ: Iowa, Ole Miss, Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M, Florida, Michigan, Maryland, Ohio State, Michigan St, Iowa,
3-loss Champ: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa
3-loss non-Champ: Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State

These "Longshots" will thin as teams lose and the probability that this turns into 2007-all-over-again diminish... unless of course we do see lots of undefeated teams falling this Saturday.
09-21-2021 09:38 AM
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Crayton Online
1st String
*

Posts: 1,059
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 80
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #10
RE: Playoff Odds
Not much movement up top. A&M lost unexpectedly, but most "Guarantees" and "Contenders" survived. We have a 9-team upper-class of playoff hopefuls (>17% Overall, no others >7%), 5 from the Midwest: Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Oregon, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame.

Guarantees >95%
Undefeated: Georgia, Alabama, Wake Forest, Michigan, Iowa, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Oregon
1-loss Champ: Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, Georgia, Iowa
Contenders >66%
Undefeated: Cincinnati, BYU
1-loss Champ: Florida, Texas, OK State, Oklahoma
1-loss non-Champ: Alabama, Michigan, Georgia, Penn State, Alabama, Iowa
2-loss Champ: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State
Need Help >33%
Undefeated: Army
1-loss Champ: Wake Forest
1-loss non-Champ: Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Notre Dame
2-loss Champ: Alabama, Georgia
2-loss non-Champ: Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan St, Alabama
Longshots >5%
Undefeated: San Diego St, UTSA
1-loss Champ: Boston College, UCLA, Oregon
1-loss non-Champ: Oregon, Wake Forest, Kentucky
2-loss Champ: Iowa, Florida, Texas, Miami, Clemson, Oklahoma
2-loss non-Champ: Penn State, Michigan, Maryland, Georgia, Ole Miss, Michigan St, Arkansas, Iowa, Florida, Alabama
3-loss Champ: Ohio State, Wisconsin

And the data dump:
Code:
Rank (W-L) Rating TEAM (Last Week)
#1 (4-0) 29.2 Alabama (W 63-14 vs. Southern Miss)+0
#2 (4-0) 31.7 Georgia (W 62-0 vs. Vanderbilt)+0
#3 (4-0) 13.9 Notre Dame (W 41-13 vs. Wisconsin)+3
#4 (4-0) 20.8 Oklahoma (W 16-13 vs. West Virginia)+0
#5 (4-0) 16 Iowa (W 24-14 vs. Colorado St)-2
#6 (4-0) 23.3 Michigan (W 20-13 vs. Rutgers)+2
#7 (3-1) 21.1 Ohio St (W 59-7 vs. Akron)-2
#8 (4-0) 14.4 Penn State (W 38-17 vs. FCS)-1
#9 (3-1) 18 Texas (W 70-35 vs. Texas Tech)+4
#10 (3-1) 19 Florida (W 38-14 vs. Tennessee)+5
#11 (4-0) 12.6 Oregon (W 41-19 vs. Arizona)+1
#12 (4-0) 3.4 OK State (W 31-20 vs. Kansas St)+5
#13 (2-2) 19.6 Clemson (L 21-27 vs. NC State)-4
#14 (4-0) 3.4 BYU (W 35-27 vs. USF)+0
#15 (3-0) 14.9 Cincinnati ---BYE---+1
#16 (4-0) 11.9 Arkansas (W 20-10 vs. Texas A&M)+12
#17 (3-0) 16.8 Ole Miss ---BYE---+2
#18 (3-1) 15.4 Auburn (W 34-24 vs. Georgia St)+0
#19 (4-0) 12.4 Wake Forest (W 37-17 vs. Virginia)+7
#20 (4-0) 11.7 Michigan St (W 23-20 vs. Nebraska)+11
#21 (1-2) 10.4 Wisconsin (L 13-41 vs. Notre Dame)-11
#22 (3-1) 10 Texas A&M (L 10-20 vs. Arkansas)-11
#23 (3-1) 9.4 LSU (W 28-25 vs. Mississippi St)+0
#24 (4-0) 8.2 Baylor (W 31-29 vs. Iowa St)+8
#25 (4-0) 3.6 Kentucky (W 16-10 vs. South Carolina)+8
#26 (4-0) 12.4 Maryland (W 37-16 vs. Kent St)+10
#27 (2-2) 10.5 Miami (W 69-0 vs. FCS)+7
#28 (3-1) 8.5 UCLA (W 35-24 vs. Stanford)+10
#29 (2-1) 10.8 UCF ---BYE---+1
#30 (2-2) 11.3 Boise St (W 27-3 vs. Utah St)+10
#31 (5-0) 3.1 Army (W 23-10 vs. Miami(OH))+16
#32 (3-1) 3.2 Western Michigan (W 23-3 vs. San Jose St)+12
#33 (3-1) 4.7 Purdue (W 13-9 vs. Illinois)+10
#34 (2-2) 13.5 West Virginia (L 13-16 vs. Oklahoma)-7
#35 (4-0) 6.7 Boston College (W 41-34 vs. Missouri)+17
#36 (4-0) 6.7 SMU (W 42-34 vs. TCU)+21
#37 (3-1) 4.1 Arizona St (W 35-13 vs. Colorado)+4
#38 (3-1) 11.1 NC State (W 27-21 vs. Clemson)+26
#39 (3-1) 5.8 Virginia Tech (W 21-10 vs. FCS)-2
#40 (3-1) 7 App St (W 31-30 vs. Marshall)+9
#41 (2-1) 4.7 TCU (L 34-42 vs. SMU)-20
#42 (3-1) 4 Louisville (W 31-23 vs. Florida St)+6
#43 (3-1) 14 Pittsburgh (W 77-7 vs. FCS)+10
#44 (2-2) 5.4 Indiana (W 33-31 vs. WKU)-2
#45 (2-2) 5.2 Iowa St (L 29-31 vs. Baylor)-23
#46 (3-1) 0.2 Kansas St (L 20-31 vs. OK State)-17
#47 (2-2) 7.5 North Carolina (L 22-45 vs. Georgia Tech)-22
#48 (4-0) 0.9 San Diego St (W 48-21 vs. FCS)-2
#49 (3-1) 4.5 Air Force (W 31-7 vs. FAU)+11
#50 (2-2) 2.5 Minnesota (L 10-14 vs. Bowling Green)-30
#51 (2-2) 2.1 USC (L 27-45 vs. Oregon St)-27
#52 (3-1) -0.2 Memphis (L 28-31 vs. UTSA)-17
#53 (2-2) 4.4 Mississippi St (L 25-28 vs. LSU)-8
#54 (2-2) 0.7 Utah (W 24-13 vs. Washington St)+5
#55 (2-2) -2.2 Stanford (L 24-35 vs. UCLA)-16
#56 (4-0) -5 Wyoming (W 34-22 vs. UConn)+0
#57 (2-2) 2.7 Washington (W 31-24 vs. California)+1
#58 (3-1) -2.2 Louisiana (W 28-20 vs. Ga Southern)+5
#59 (3-1) 3.1 UAB (W 28-21 vs. Tulane)+17
#60 (3-1) -0.7 Texas Tech (L 35-70 vs. Texas)-9
#61 (3-1) 9.1 Rutgers (L 13-20 vs. Michigan)+5
#62 (2-3) 8.6 Nebraska (L 20-23 vs. Michigan St)-12
#64 (2-2) 4.8 Virginia (L 17-37 vs. Wake Forest)-9
#65 (3-1) 3.9 Oregon St (W 45-27 vs. USC)+15
#66 (4-1) 6.3 Fresno St (W 38-20 vs. UNLV)+1
#67 (2-2) 2.6 Missouri (L 34-41 vs. Boston College)-13
#68 (3-1) 2.6 Syracuse (W 24-21 vs. Liberty)+11
#69 (3-1) 2.4 Houston (W 28-20 vs. Navy)+2
#70 (2-2) 8.7 Tennessee (L 14-38 vs. Florida)-5
#71 (4-0) 4.6 UTSA (W 31-28 vs. Memphis)+4
#72 (2-2) 0.6 Northwestern (W 35-6 vs. Ohio)+0
#73 (2-2) 5 Georgia Tech (W 45-22 vs. North Carolina)+18
#74 (2-2) 1.7 South Carolina (L 10-16 vs. Kentucky)-13
#75 (2-2) 1.6 Buffalo (W 35-34 vs. Old Dominion)-5
#76 (2-2) -1.8 Toledo (W 22-12 vs. Ball St)+9
#77 (2-2) 7.5 Marshall (L 30-31 vs. App St)-9
#78 (3-1) -2 Duke (W 52-33 vs. Kansas)+11
#79 (3-1) -6.4 Utah St (L 3-27 vs. Boise St)-6
#80 (2-1) -1.7 Nevada ---BYE---+2
#81 (3-1) 6.2 Liberty (L 21-24 vs. Syracuse)-7
#82 (1-3) 1.7 Tulane (L 21-28 vs. UAB)-13
#83 (3-1) -6 Eastern Michigan (W 59-21 vs. Texas St)+3
#84 (2-2) 0.5 FAU (L 7-31 vs. Air Force)-6
#85 (2-2) -5.5 Central Michigan (W 31-27 vs. FIU)+5
#86 (1-3) -6.9 Tulsa (W 41-34 vs. Arkansas St)+6
#87 (2-2) -7.7 San Jose St (L 3-23 vs. Western Michigan)-10
#88 (1-3) -7.2 Colorado (L 13-35 vs. Arizona St)-5
#89 (1-4) -2.1 Illinois (L 9-13 vs. Purdue)-1
#90 (2-2) -9.2 Northern Illinois (W 41-14 vs. FCS)+6
#91 (1-3) -6.3 Miami(OH) (L 10-23 vs. Army)-4
#92 (2-2) -7.8 East Carolina (W 31-28 vs. FCS)+8
#93 (2-2) -4.4 La Tech (W 24-17 vs. North Texas)+12
#94 (1-3) -15.1 Ball St (L 12-22 vs. Toledo)-10
#95 (1-2) 2.1 WKU (L 31-33 vs. Indiana)+2
#96 (1-3) -5.5 Kent St (L 16-37 vs. Maryland)-2
#97 (3-0) -10.5 South Alabama ---BYE---+4
#98 (2-2) -2.9 Troy (L 16-29 vs. La Monroe)-17
#99 (1-3) -5.2 California (L 24-31 vs. Washington)-4
#100 (1-3) -10.4 Washington St (L 13-24 vs. Utah)-7
#101 (1-3) -13.9 Georgia St (L 24-34 vs. Auburn)-2
#102 (3-1) -7.5 Charlotte (W 42-39 vs. Middle Tennessee)+5
#103 (2-3) -11.5 Hawaii (W 41-21 vs. New Mexico St)+6
#104 (1-3) -11.7 USF (L 27-35 vs. BYU)+0
#105 (0-4) -11.9 Navy (L 20-28 vs. Houston)-7
#106 (0-4) -6.3 Florida St (L 23-31 vs. Louisville)-3
#107 (2-2) -13.6 Temple (W 41-7 vs. FCS)+4
#108 (2-1) -17 La Monroe (W 29-16 vs. Troy)+14
#109 (1-3) -17.1 Ga Southern (L 20-28 vs. Louisiana)-7
#110 (1-3) -12.8 Colorado St (L 14-24 vs. Iowa)+3
#111 (1-3) -15.9 Arkansas St (L 34-41 vs. Tulsa)-3
#112 (1-3) -12.1 Southern Miss (L 14-63 vs. Alabama)+0
#113 (3-1) -15.6 UTEP (W 20-13 vs. New Mexico)+11
#114 (2-2) -17.6 New Mexico (L 13-20 vs. UTEP)-8
#115 (1-3) -18.7 Rice (W 48-34 vs. FCS)+5
#116 (1-3) -22.4 Vanderbilt (L 0-62 vs. Georgia)+0
#117 (1-3) -23.6 Kansas (L 33-52 vs. Duke)-3
#118 (1-3) -7 Middle Tennessee (L 39-42 vs. Charlotte)-3
#119 (2-2) -16.8 Bowling Green (W 14-10 vs. Minnesota)+7
#120 (1-3) -12.6 North Texas (L 17-24 vs. La Tech)-3
#121 (1-3) -9.1 Old Dominion (L 34-35 vs. Buffalo)-2
#122 (0-4) -20.4 Ohio (L 6-35 vs. Northwestern)-12
#123 (0-4) -16.2 Arizona (L 19-41 vs. Oregon)-2
#124 (1-3) -27.5 Akron (L 7-59 vs. Ohio St)+1
#125 (1-3) -20.5 Texas St (L 21-59 vs. Eastern Michigan)-7
#126 (1-3) -13.2 FIU (L 27-31 vs. Central Michigan)-3
#127 (0-4) -23 UNLV (L 20-38 vs. Fresno St)+0
#128 (1-4) -26.7 New Mexico St (L 21-41 vs. Hawaii)+0
#129 (0-4) -31.8 UMass (L 3-53 vs. Coastal Carolina)+0
#130 (0-5) -32.5 UConn (L 22-34 vs. Wyoming)+0

100% (12-0)+W Georgia (18%)
100% (12-0)+W Alabama (25%)
100% (12-0)+W Wake Forest (1%)
100% (11-1)+W Penn State (3%)
100% (12-0)+W Michigan (2%)
100% (11-1)+W Ohio St (5%)
100% (12-0)+W Iowa (7%)
100% (12-0)+W Oklahoma (14%)
99% (11-1)+W Michigan (9%)
99% (11-1)+W Alabama (21%)
98% (11-1)+W Georgia (17%)
98% (12-0)      Notre Dame (30%)
97% (12-0)+L  Michigan (2%)
97% (12-0)+W Oregon (11%)
96% (11-1)+W Iowa (16%)
93% (12-0)+W Cincinnati (5%)
93% (12-0)+L  Alabama (16%)
92% (11-1)      Michigan (3%)
91% (12-0)+L  Georgia (17%)
90% (11-1)+W Florida (1%)
90% (11-1)      Penn State (2%)
85% (11-1)+W Texas (1%)
85% (10-2)+W Michigan (4%)
82% (11-1)      Alabama (3%)
80% (10-2)+W Ohio St (13%)
80% (10-2)+W Penn State (3%)
79% (12-0)+L  Iowa (8%)
76% (11-1)      Georgia (4%)
70% (11-1)+W OK State (1%)
68% (11-1)+W Oklahoma (27%)
67% (12-0)      BYU (9%)
66% (10-2)+W Alabama (4%)
62% (11-1)+L  Michigan (7%)
60% (12-0)+L  Oklahoma (5%)
60% (11-1)+L  Penn State (3%)
60% (11-1)      Ole Miss (4%)
57% (10-2)+W Georgia (5%)
56% (11-1)+L  Ohio St (4%)
45% (11-1)      Notre Dame (40%)
44% (11-1)+L  Michigan St (1%)
44% (12-0)      Army (2%)
43% (11-1)+W Wake Forest (5%)
38% (11-1)+L  Alabama (13%)
32% (12-0)+W San Diego St (1%)
31% (10-2)+W Iowa (13%)
30% (10-2)      Penn State (17%)
29% (10-2)      Michigan (22%)
27% (10-2)      Maryland (3%)
27% (11-1)+W Boston College (1%)
26% (11-1)+L  Georgia (18%)
25% (9-3)+W Ohio St (5%)
24% (11-1)+W UCLA (1%)
22% (11-1)+W Oregon (23%)
21% (11-1)+L  Ole Miss (2%)
19% (10-2)      Ohio St (6%)
19% (10-2)+W Florida (1%)
19% (10-2)      Michigan St (8%)
18% (11-1)      Wake Forest (1%)
17% (12-0)+L  Oregon (5%)
15% (10-2)+W Texas (7%)
14% (10-2)      Arkansas (9%)
10% (11-1)+L  Iowa (16%)
10% (9-3)+W Wisconsin (1%)
10% (10-2)+W Miami (1%)
8% (10-2)+W Clemson (9%)
8% (11-1)      Kentucky (2%)
8% (11-1)+L  Florida (4%)
8% (10-2)      Alabama (7%)
6% (12-0)+W UTSA (6%)
6% (10-2)+W Oklahoma (17%)
5% (10-2)+L  Michigan (4%)
4% (10-2)      Georgia (7%)
4% (10-2)+L  Penn State (3%)
4% (10-2)+L  Arkansas (1%)
3% (11-1)+L  Texas (2%)
3% (11-1)      Oregon (1%)
3% (10-2)+W Louisville (1%)
3% (11-1)+W Cincinnati (23%)
3% (10-2)      Iowa (5%)
2% (10-2)      Ole Miss (19%)
2% (10-2)+W Pittsburgh (2%)
2% (10-2)+W OK State (4%)
2% (10-2)+L  Auburn (1%)
2% (12-0)+L  Cincinnati (2%)
2% (10-2)+L  Ohio St (9%)
2% (10-2)+L  Michigan St (1%)
1% (10-2)+W Wake Forest (8%)
1% (10-2)+W NC State (3%)
1% (11-1)+W UAB (3%)
1% (11-1)+L  Kentucky (1%)
1% (11-1)+W UCF (1%)
1% (10-2)      Notre Dame (21%)
1% (11-1)+L  Oklahoma (10%)
1% (11-1)+L  Boston College (1%)
1% (10-2)+L  Alabama (2%)
0% (10-2)      Texas A&M (3%)
0% (9-3)+W Iowa (3%)
0% (10-2)+W Baylor (1%)
0% (10-2)      Florida (22%)
0% (9-3)+W Texas (10%)
0% (11-1)+L  OK State (4%)
0% (10-2)+L  Georgia (4%)
0% (9-3)      Michigan (25%)
0% (11-1)+W Western Michigan (9%)
0% (12-0)+W Coastal Carolina (3%)
0% (9-3)      Penn State (31%)
0% (11-1)+W SMU (4%)
0% (10-2)+W Oregon (15%)
0% (11-1)      BYU (29%)
0% (10-2)+W UCLA (7%)
0% (9-3)      Ohio St (23%)
0% (9-3)+W Clemson (9%)
0% (10-2)      Wake Forest (10%)
0% (9-3)      Arkansas (28%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (43%)
100% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (1%)
100% 0-loss CHAMP Big Ten (11%)
100% 0-loss CHAMP Big 12 (15%)
98% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (42%)
98% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (36%)
97% 0-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (11%)
91% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (6%)
86% 1-loss at large Big Ten (19%)
83% 1-loss at large SEC (49%)
69% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (31%)
63% 2-loss CHAMP Big Ten (37%)
60% 1-loss at large Big 12 (6%)
54% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (12%)
42% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (8%)
28% 2-loss at large Big Ten (97%)
28% 0-loss CHAMP MWC (2%)
22% 1-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (26%)
21% 1-loss at large ACC (3%)
14% 1-loss at large Pac 12 (6%)
13% 3-loss CHAMP Big Ten (12%)
11% 2-loss at large SEC (128%)
9% 3-loss CHAMP SEC (1%)
7% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (31%)
6% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (6%)
4% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (30%)
2% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (30%)
1% 1-loss at large AAC (3%)
0% 4-loss CHAMP Big Ten (2%)
0% 2-loss at large Big 12 (32%)
0% 3-loss at large Big Ten (171%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP MAC (10%)
0% 0-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (3%)
0% 3-loss CHAMP Big 12 (17%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP CUSA (18%)
0% 2-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (27%)
0% 2-loss at large ACC (30%)
0% 3-loss at large SEC (186%)
0% 3-loss CHAMP ACC (35%)

Playoff %
1) 73.49% Alabama
2) 63.26% Georgia
3) 48.25% Notre Dame
4) 38.45% Oklahoma
5) 36.55% Iowa
6) 33.67% Michigan
7) 22.03% Ohio St
8) 17.7% Oregon
9) 17.57% Penn State
10) 6.44% BYU
11) 6.23% Cincinnati
12) 5.1% Ole Miss
13) 5.01% Michigan St
14) 4.41% Wake Forest
15) 3.36% Arkansas
16) 2.75% Texas
17) 2.47% Florida
18) 2.01% OK State
19) 1.82% Maryland
20) 0.89% Army
21) 0.79% Clemson
22) 0.79% Boston College
23) 0.67% Baylor
24) 0.67% SMU
25) 0.65% Auburn
26) 0.59% Kentucky
27) 0.57% San Diego St
28) 0.54% Wisconsin
29) 0.47% UCLA
30) 0.45% UTSA
31) 0.33% Pittsburgh
32) 0.27% Purdue
33) 0.26% NC State
34) 0.25% Louisville
35) 0.22% LSU
36) 0.17% Miami
37) 0.15% Texas A&M
38) 0.15% Virginia Tech
39) 0.09% Rutgers
40) 0.07% Oregon St
41) 0.06% Wyoming
42) 0.05% Kansas St
43) 0.05% UAB
44) 0.04% Duke
45) 0.04% TCU
46) 0.03% Western Michigan
47) 0.02% Syracuse
48) 0.02% West Virginia
49) 0.02% Arizona St
50) 0.02% UCF
51) 0.01% South Carolina
52) 0.01% Georgia Tech
53) 0.01% Texas Tech

Top G5 Champ %
1) 39.58% Cincinnati
2) 9.89% UTSA
3) 8.24% Western Michigan
4) 7.4% SMU
5) 6.4% San Diego St
6) 6.27% UCF
7) 5.08% UAB
8) 5.08% App St
9) 2.26% Boise St
10) 1.87% Fresno St
11) 1.5% Wyoming
12) 1.12% Air Force
13) 1.02% Louisiana
14) 0.86% Memphis
15) 0.61% Houston
16) 0.21% Utah St
17) 0.19% FAU
18) 0.14% Marshall
19) 0.07% Eastern Michigan
20) 0.06% Tulane
21) 0.04% Charlotte
22) 0.04% South Alabama
23) 0.03% Nevada
24) 0.03% WKU
25) 0.02% Navy
26) 0.02% Colorado St
27) 0.02% Bowling Green
28) 0.01% UTEP
29) 0.01% La Monroe

5-1-2 TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*
79.56% Alabama (510/697) *2364*
71.39% Georgia (469/690) *2546*
67.25% Oklahoma (33/52) *583*
54.55% Oregon (37/83) *84*
52.24% Iowa (142/252) *960*
47.3% Notre Dame (4003/6896) *727*
39.89% Michigan (1366/2450) *911*
39.87% Cincinnati (1/8) *28*
33.74% Ohio St (542/890) *309*
22.75% Texas (5/10) *37*
22.67% Penn State (957/2061) *487*
22.59% Wake Forest (49/147) *34*
21.5% UCLA (0/2) *0*
21.07% Clemson (28/59) *1*
17.54% Miami (0/0) *0*
9.89% Arizona St (0/0) *0*
9.89% UTSA (0/0) *0*
9.66% Pittsburgh (3/5) *0*
9.24% Virginia Tech (0/4) *0*
8.72% OK State (12/21) *59*
8.6% NC State (2/10) *0*
8.24% Western Michigan (0/0) *0*
8.06% Ole Miss (436/1197) *214*
7.45% SMU (0/0) *5*
6.43% Florida (217/490) *98*
6.4% San Diego St (0/0) *0*
6.34% Michigan St (242/829) *181*
6.27% UCF (0/0) *0*
5.37% Arkansas (287/863) *166*
5.08% UAB (0/0) *0*
5.08% App St (0/0) *0*
5.03% Baylor (5/15) *10*
4.55% Boston College (9/55) *15*
3.99% Wisconsin (6/19) *6*
3.79% Louisville (0/6) *1*
3.78% BYU (356/1125) *22*
3.73% Washington (0/0) *0*
3.6% Utah (0/0) *0*
2.92% Oregon St (0/0) *0*
2.8% USC (0/0) *0*
2.32% Maryland (113/399) *59*
2.26% Boise St (0/0) *0*
1.93% Coastal Carolina (0/0) *0*
1.87% Fresno St (0/0) *0*
1.8% Stanford (0/0) *0*
1.64% North Carolina (0/4) *0*
1.6% West Virginia (0/0) *1*
1.56% Kentucky (40/160) *36*
1.5% Wyoming (0/0) *0*
1.39% Auburn (39/75) *20*
1.34% Georgia Tech (0/0) *0*
1.14% Purdue (4/11) *5*
1.12% Air Force (0/0) *0*
1.02% Louisiana (0/0) *0*
0.86% TCU (0/0) *0*
0.86% Memphis (0/0) *0*
0.74% LSU (28/84) *11*
0.61% Houston (0/0) *0*
0.6% Syracuse (0/0) *0*
0.54% Texas A&M (20/87) *13*
0.48% Kansas St (0/4) *0*
0.42% Iowa St (0/0) *0*
0.41% Virginia (2/2) *0*
0.4% Duke (0/0) *0*
0.33% Army (30/194) *3*
0.28% Minnesota (0/0) *0*
0.23% Arizona (0/0) *0*
0.21% Utah St (0/1) *0*
0.19% FAU (0/0) *0*
0.16% Kansas (0/0) *0*
0.16% Texas Tech (0/0) *0*
0.14% Marshall (0/0) *0*
0.13% Rutgers (5/29) *4*
0.12% Northwestern (0/0) *0*
0.11% Nebraska (0/0) *0*
0.08% Washington St (0/0) *0*
0.07% Colorado (0/0) *0*
0.07% Eastern Michigan (0/0) *0*
0.06% Tulane (0/0) *0*
0.04% Tennessee (0/1) *0*
0.04% California (0/0) *0*
0.04% Charlotte (0/0) *0*
0.04% South Alabama (0/0) *0*
0.03% Nevada (0/0) *0*
0.03% WKU (0/0) *0*
0.02% South Carolina (2/8) *0*
0.02% Missouri (0/0) *0*
0.02% Vanderbilt (0/0) *0*
0.02% Mississippi St (0/1) *0*
0.02% Indiana (0/4) *0*
0.02% Navy (0/0) *0*
0.02% Colorado St (0/0) *0*
0.02% Bowling Green (0/0) *0*
0.01% Florida St (0/0) *0*
0.01% UTEP (0/0) *0*
0.01% La Monroe (0/0) *0*

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 BYE
B:312 C:16 A:2025 H:843 X:0 Florida
B:4101 C:23 A:5110 H:4476 X:0 Georgia
B:2 C:2 A:3 H:0 X:0 Tennessee
B:0 C:0 A:13 H:10 X:0 South Carolina
B:51 C:26 A:681 H:279 X:3 Kentucky
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:1 Missouri
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:2 Vanderbilt
B:5068 C:14 A:4422 H:4010 X:0 Alabama
B:27 C:8 A:384 H:133 X:0 LSU
B:75 C:5 A:504 H:161 X:0 Auburn
B:82 C:2 A:2358 H:1222 X:0 Arkansas
B:149 C:7 A:2894 H:1738 X:0 Ole Miss
B:19 C:2 A:380 H:119 X:0 Texas A&M
B:2 C:0 A:15 H:0 X:0 Mississippi St
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:0 Florida St
B:929 C:931 A:237 H:189 X:218 Clemson
B:255 C:160 A:292 H:128 X:16 Boston College
B:1140 C:788 A:740 H:378 X:248 Wake Forest
B:145 C:177 A:78 H:36 X:56 Louisville
B:271 C:438 A:81 H:48 X:149 NC State
B:22 C:24 A:5 H:2 X:14 Syracuse
B:243 C:497 A:69 H:39 X:223 Pittsburgh
B:383 C:934 A:63 H:30 X:437 Miami
B:9 C:34 A:0 H:1 X:91 Georgia Tech
B:147 C:425 A:51 H:28 X:352 Virginia Tech
B:3 C:13 A:2 H:0 X:23 Virginia
B:1 C:70 A:9 H:2 X:93 North Carolina
B:12 C:11 A:3 H:2 X:17 Duke
B:0 C:0 A:8553 H:7398 X:0 Notre Dame
B:60 C:0 A:1352 H:568 X:0 Maryland
B:814 C:9 A:5222 H:3237 X:0 Penn State
B:1710 C:2 A:6014 H:4338 X:0 Michigan
B:206 C:5 A:2673 H:1293 X:0 Michigan St
B:2420 C:101 A:3702 H:2018 X:2 Ohio St
B:4 C:0 A:114 H:43 X:0 Rutgers
B:2 C:0 A:24 H:5 X:0 Indiana
B:256 C:105 A:407 H:99 X:26 Wisconsin
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Illinois
B:80 C:20 A:204 H:55 X:5 Purdue
B:6 C:4 A:0 H:0 X:2 Northwestern
B:8 C:16 A:11 H:3 X:4 Minnesota
B:3896 C:215 A:3603 H:2615 X:11 Iowa
B:4 C:5 A:7 H:0 X:2 Nebraska
B:49 C:86 A:13 H:2 X:24 West Virginia
B:0 C:9 A:0 H:0 X:7 Kansas
B:29 C:15 A:14 H:5 X:4 Kansas St
B:10 C:24 A:1 H:0 X:8 Iowa St
B:5517 C:560 A:1799 H:1213 X:32 Oklahoma
B:566 C:201 A:711 H:319 X:34 OK State
B:25 C:34 A:4 H:0 X:27 TCU
B:1266 C:803 A:424 H:195 X:164 Texas
B:9 C:7 A:6 H:1 X:0 Texas Tech
B:243 C:195 A:292 H:111 X:50 Baylor
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:5 Colorado
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:23 Arizona
B:82 C:315 A:0 H:4 X:592 Arizona St
B:2 C:45 A:2 H:0 X:233 USC
B:492 C:1001 A:118 H:38 X:657 UCLA
B:5 C:38 A:0 H:0 X:317 Utah
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:3 California
B:3881 C:1228 A:1038 H:660 X:225 Oregon
B:52 C:119 A:1 H:0 X:121 Oregon St
B:8 C:46 A:0 H:4 X:126 Stanford
B:3 C:67 A:0 H:1 X:303 Washington
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:7 Washington St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 UConn
B:2348 C:2477 A:253 H:396 X:1142 Cincinnati
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:9 USF
B:176 C:735 A:4 H:16 X:885 UCF
B:0 C:3 A:0 H:0 X:19 Temple
B:0 C:4 A:0 H:0 X:23 East Carolina
B:9 C:83 A:0 H:0 X:411 Houston
B:401 C:521 A:117 H:76 X:220 SMU
B:17 C:123 A:0 H:0 X:248 Memphis
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:30 Tulsa
B:0 C:10 A:0 H:0 X:78 Tulane
B:0 C:6 A:0 H:0 X:9 Navy
B:0 C:0 A:2242 H:1039 X:0 BYU
B:41 C:164 A:3 H:2 X:552 Air Force
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:35 Colorado St
B:53 C:203 A:4 H:3 X:349 Wyoming
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:14 New Mexico
B:39 C:468 A:0 H:3 X:3779 Boise St
B:3 C:43 A:1 H:0 X:281 Utah St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:12 UNLV
B:309 C:774 A:35 H:31 X:1155 San Diego St
B:0 C:29 A:0 H:0 X:232 Nevada
B:57 C:289 A:2 H:12 X:878 Fresno St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:4 Hawaii
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:235 San Jose St
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:410 La Tech
B:1 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:21 UTEP
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:6 Rice
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 North Texas
B:616 C:960 A:10 H:80 X:1421 UTSA
B:214 C:697 A:0 H:25 X:1567 UAB
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:37 Southern Miss
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:42 Old Dominion
B:0 C:5 A:0 H:0 X:566 WKU
B:0 C:5 A:0 H:0 X:307 Charlotte
B:2 C:38 A:0 H:0 X:2036 Marshall
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:7 Middle Tennessee
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:27 FIU
B:0 C:40 A:0 H:0 X:974 FAU
B:0 C:0 A:393 H:167 X:0 Army
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 UMass
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:2516 Buffalo
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:38 Ohio
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:56 Bowling Green
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:525 Kent St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:494 Miami(OH)
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:53 Akron
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:276 Central Michigan
B:367 C:1186 A:0 H:41 X:2459 Western Michigan
B:0 C:6 A:0 H:0 X:118 Northern Illinois
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:1369 Toledo
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:17 Ball St
B:1 C:24 A:0 H:0 X:489 Eastern Michigan
B:0 C:0 A:5 H:0 X:0 Liberty
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 New Mexico St
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:63 Troy
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:42 Arkansas St
B:16 C:153 A:0 H:0 X:3306 Louisiana
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:55 La Monroe
B:0 C:11 A:0 H:0 X:212 South Alabama
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:15 Texas St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:72 Georgia St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:11 Ga Southern
B:124 C:940 A:0 H:5 X:3390 App St
B:53 C:306 A:0 H:5 X:1228 Coastal Carolina
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 --
09-26-2021 11:20 AM
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shizzle787 Online
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Post: #11
RE: Playoff Odds
No 2-loss team is getting into a 4-team playoff.
09-26-2021 11:22 AM
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Crayton Online
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Post: #12
RE: Playoff Odds
(09-26-2021 11:22 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  No 2-loss team is getting into a 4-team playoff.
A 2-loss team has finished #5 in the last 4 non-COVID years. It has almost happened already.

The most likely way a 2-loss team makes the playoff is as a 2-loss Big Ten Champ from the East division. Here are the other possible teams that 'should' get a shot at the playoff before them:

1) 0- or 1-loss SEC Champ (85% frequency)
2) 1-loss SEC runner-up (49% frequency)
3) 1-loss B1G runner-up (19% frequency)
4) Undefeated ACC Champ (1% frequency)
5) Undefeated Oregon (11% frequency)
6) Undefeated UC/ND (35% frequency)
7) 0- or 1-loss Big 12 Champ (46% frequency)

Looking at the frequencies above, it is not too difficult to imagine a scenario where 4 of the 7 do not happen (>50% chance). Again, these are just frequencies, a 1-loss Oregon, for example, likely has an edge over a 2-loss Ohio State.
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 01:01 AM by Crayton.)
09-26-2021 12:07 PM
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Post: #13
RE: Playoff Odds
(09-26-2021 12:07 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(09-26-2021 11:22 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  No 2-loss team is getting into a 4-team playoff.
A 2-loss team has finished #5 in the last 4 non-COVID years. It has almost happened already.

The most likely way a 2-loss team makes the playoff is as a 2-loss Big Ten Champ from the East division. Here are the other possible teams that 'should' get a shot at the playoff before them:

1) 0- or 1-loss SEC Champ (85% frequency)
2) 1-loss SEC runner-up (49% frequency)
3) 1-loss B1G runner-up (19% frequency)
4) Undefeated ACC Champ (1% frequency)
5) Undefeated Oregon (11% frequency)
6) Undefeated Notre Dame (30% frequency)
7) Undefeated Cincinnati (5% frequency)
8) 0- or 1-loss Big 12 Champ (46% frequency)

Looking at the frequencies above, it is not too difficult to imagine a scenario where 5 of the 8 do not happen (>50% chance). Again, these are just frequencies, a 1-loss Oregon, for example, likely has an edge over a 2-loss Ohio State.

Its really difficult to imagine a 2 loss champ having a 66% chance of making the playoffs. Its very slim.
09-26-2021 12:50 PM
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Crayton Online
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Post: #14
RE: Playoff Odds
(09-26-2021 12:50 PM)bullet Wrote:  Its really difficult to imagine a 2 loss champ having a 66% chance of making the playoffs. Its very slim.

It is slim. Of the 4 playoff spots, there is a 1/6 chance that a 2-loss Big Ten Champ takes 1 of them.

The 66%+ number is GIVEN a scenario where PSU/UM/OSU win the Big Ten with 2 losses, but this only has a 1/5 chance of occurring.

The only 1-loss P5 teams passed over by PSU/UM/OSU would be from the ACC and Pac-12. (Again, this is looking only at frequency, Oregon likely trumps OSU head-to-head). This of course is debateable and there may be a factor missing from the computer's calculations.
09-26-2021 01:49 PM
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Scoochpooch1 Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Playoff Odds
ND has clinched a spot as everyone conveniently ignores their Week 1 Tie and Week 2 time gaffe by Toledo.
09-26-2021 02:10 PM
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Post: #16
RE: Playoff Odds
There was a 2 loss LSU team in the BCS Title Game. If we get another season like that, I think it’s absolutely possible for a 2 loss team to make it into the CFP field.
09-26-2021 03:04 PM
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RE: Playoff Odds
(09-26-2021 01:49 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(09-26-2021 12:50 PM)bullet Wrote:  Its really difficult to imagine a 2 loss champ having a 66% chance of making the playoffs. Its very slim.

It is slim. Of the 4 playoff spots, there is a 1/6 chance that a 2-loss Big Ten Champ takes 1 of them.

The 66%+ number is GIVEN a scenario where PSU/UM/OSU win the Big Ten with 2 losses, but this only has a 1/5 chance of occurring.

The only 1-loss P5 teams passed over by PSU/UM/OSU would be from the ACC and Pac-12. (Again, this is looking only at frequency, Oregon likely trumps OSU head-to-head). This of course is debateable and there may be a factor missing from the computer's calculations.

And there is very little chance of PSU/UM/OSU winning the Big 10 with 2 losses and beating out all but 3 other teams. You'll likely have a 0-1 loss Pac 12, 0-1 loss Big 12 and a couple of SEC teams with Notre Dame and a 1 loss ACC champ ranked ahead of them.
09-26-2021 03:18 PM
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Crayton Online
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RE: Playoff Odds
(09-26-2021 02:10 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  ND has clinched a spot as everyone conveniently ignores their Week 1 Tie and Week 2 time gaffe by Toledo.

I was surprised to see that ESPN still gives 2-loss Clemson a 10% chance to make the playoff at this point. To your point, early season gaffes and losses are often overlooked. Often when choosing between teams with losses, the team with the longest winning streak is chosen.
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 01:02 AM by Crayton.)
09-26-2021 03:27 PM
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