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Playoff Odds
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Crayton Online
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Playoff Odds
Two games left this week, but ran the numbers early. The affect on Notre Dame's playoff chances should be apparent. Thanks to your Summer feedback, the rankings are a little more sensitive to early-season results than they were last year.

Overall Playoff Chances (change since last week, after rounding down)
Code:
1) 74.6% Ohio St (-1%)
2) 64.86% Alabama (+9%)
3) 47.86% Notre Dame (-9%)
4) 36.75% Georgia (+28%)
5) 30.94% Iowa (+7%)
6) 25.78% Oklahoma (-7%)
7) 20.11% Texas (-3%)
8) 15.68% Clemson (-26%)
9) 10.96% Penn State (+10%)
10) 8.8% Wisconsin (-27%)
11) 7.75% USC (+3%)
12) 6.61% Michigan (+4%)
13) 6.41% Texas A&M (+3%)
14) 5.33% BYU (+1%)
15) 5.3% UCF (+4%)
16) 3.56% UCLA (+3%)
17) 3.18% Florida (+2%)
18) 2.93% Cincinnati (-1%)
19) 2.51% App St (+2%)
20) 2.37% Marshall (+2%)
21) 2.37% Buffalo (+1%)
22) 1.82% Auburn (+1%)
23) 1.44% Miami (-1%)
24) 1.41% Oregon (+1%)
25) 1.08% Air Force (+1%)
26) 1.07% Arizona St (+1%)
27) 1.04% Virginia Tech (+1%)
28) 0.97% Utah
29) 0.6% TCU
30) 0.59% Boise St (-6%)
31) 0.55% Wake Forest
32) 0.54% OK State (-1%)
33) 0.37% Iowa St
34) 0.34% Memphis
35) 0.24% Kentucky
36) 0.19% Kansas
37) 0.16% Toledo
38) 0.16% Ball St
39) 0.14% Purdue
40) 0.14% Nebraska
41) 0.14% SMU
42) 0.13% South Carolina
43) 0.13% North Texas
44) 0.12% Colorado
45) 0.11% Virginia
46) 0.11% UAB
47) 0.1% Ole Miss
48) 0.1% Pittsburgh
49) 0.1% San Diego St
50) 0.1% Troy
51) 0.09% Arkansas St
52) 0.08% Boston College
53) 0.08% Kansas St
54) 0.08% Army
55) 0.07% Mississippi St
56) 0.07% Illinois
57) 0.07% Minnesota
58) 0.07% Wyoming
59) 0.06% Louisville
60) 0.06% NC State
61) 0.06% Stanford
62) 0.05% Michigan St
63) 0.05% Baylor
64) 0.05% WKU
65) 0.04% Colorado St
66) 0.03% Arkansas
67) 0.03% Syracuse
68) 0.03% Texas Tech
69) 0.03% Washington (-1%)
70) 0.03% Nevada
71) 0.03% Louisiana
72) 0.02% Tennessee
73) 0.02% LSU (-1%)
74) 0.02% North Carolina
75) 0.02% Maryland
76) 0.02% FIU
77) 0.02% Ga Southern
78) 0.01% Missouri
79) 0.01% West Virginia
80) 0.01% Tulsa
81) 0.01% UTEP
82) 0.01% Charlotte
83) 0.01% Western Michigan
84) 0.01% Eastern Michigan

Playoff Chances, given a certain record (must be >1% chance of obtaining record)
Code:
100% (12-0)+W Georgia (10%)
100% (12-0)+W Alabama (27%)
100% (12-0)+W Ohio St (34%)
100% (12-0)+W Iowa (5%)
100% (12-0)+W Texas (5%)
100% (12-0)+W USC (1%)
98% (12-0)      Notre Dame (19%)
98% (12-0)+W Oklahoma (10%)
96% (11-1)+W Penn State (1%)
96% (11-1)+W Ohio St (21%)
95% (11-1)+W Michigan (1%)
94% (12-0)+W Cincinnati (1%)
94% (12-0)      BYU (3%)
92% (11-1)+W Iowa (10%)
90% (11-1)+W Alabama (25%)
89% (11-1)+W Georgia (14%)
83% (11-1)      Penn State (3%)
83% (11-1)+W Texas A&M (2%)
83% (12-0)+L  Ohio St (12%)
79% (12-0)+W App St (2%)
77% (12-0)+L  Alabama (9%)
77% (12-0)+W UCF (4%)
75% (12-0)+L  Iowa (11%)
75% (11-1)      Notre Dame (34%)
68% (11-1)+W Texas (16%)
68% (12-0)+L  Georgia (17%)
67% (11-1)      Iowa (3%)
65% (10-2)+W Wisconsin (2%)
64% (11-1)+W USC (7%)
63% (11-1)      Ohio St (6%)
62% (11-1)+W Florida (1%)
60% (12-0)+L  Texas (4%)
58% (11-1)+W Oklahoma (20%)
56% (11-1)      Michigan (2%)
54% (11-1)      Alabama (6%)
54% (10-2)+W Penn State (1%)
54% (11-1)+L  Penn State (2%)
52% (11-1)+L  Wisconsin (2%)
52% (12-0)+W Air Force (2%)
50% (11-1)+W Miami (1%)
50% (11-1)      Auburn (1%)
46% (12-0)+W Marshall (5%)
42% (10-2)+W Iowa (7%)
42% (11-1)+W Clemson (34%)
42% (11-1)+W Utah (1%)
41% (11-1)+W UCLA (4%)
39% (12-0)+L  Oklahoma (5%)
39% (10-2)+W Ohio St (4%)
38% (12-0)+L  Texas A&M (1%)
37% (11-1)      Georgia (4%)
36% (11-1)      UCLA (1%)
36% (12-0)+L  Florida (1%)
35% (12-0)+W Buffalo (5%)
32% (11-1)      Texas A&M (5%)
29% (10-2)+W Auburn (1%)
28% (11-1)      Florida (2%)
27% (11-1)+W Oregon (2%)
25% (10-2)+W Alabama (5%)
25% (11-1)+W Wake Forest (1%)
25% (11-1)+L  Michigan (2%)
23% (10-2)      Wisconsin (7%)
22% (10-2)+W Georgia (4%)
22% (11-1)+L  Ohio St (8%)
21% (11-1)+W Arizona St (2%)
18% (11-1)+W Boise St (2%)
18% (11-1)+L  Iowa (18%)
17% (10-2)      Penn State (19%)
17% (9-3)+W Wisconsin (2%)
16% (11-1)      Wake Forest (1%)
15% (10-2)+W Texas (13%)
15% (11-1)+L  Alabama (8%)
13% (11-1)      BYU (15%)
13% (10-2)+W Texas A&M (1%)
9% (11-1)+L  Georgia (21%)
8% (11-1)+W Cincinnati (11%)
8% (10-2)      Notre Dame (27%)
8% (10-2)+W Florida (1%)
7% (10-2)+W Oklahoma (14%)
7% (11-1)+L  Auburn (1%)
6% (10-2)+W Iowa St (1%)
6% (10-2)+W USC (11%)
5% (11-1)+L  Texas A&M (3%)
5% (10-2)+W Miami (4%)
5% (10-2)      Michigan (17%)
4% (10-2)      Ohio St (6%)
4% (10-2)      Mississippi St (1%)
4% (11-1)+L  Florida (5%)
3% (11-1)+L  Oklahoma (13%)
3% (10-2)+L  Wisconsin (8%)
3% (11-1)+L  Texas (14%)
3% (11-1)+W UCF (16%)
3% (10-2)      Miami (1%)
3% (10-2)      Minnesota (1%)
3% (10-2)+W Clemson (28%)
2% (11-1)+L  USC (3%)
2% (11-1)+W Memphis (2%)
2% (11-1)+W App St (14%)
2% (10-2)      Clemson (2%)
2% (10-2)+W OK State (2%)
2% (10-2)+W Utah (3%)
2% (10-2)+W TCU (1%)
1% (10-2)      Iowa (9%)
1% (10-2)      Auburn (6%)
1% (10-2)      Alabama (9%)
1% (10-2)      USC (7%)
1% (10-2)      Georgia (9%)
1% (10-2)+L  Penn State (1%)
1% (11-1)+W Buffalo (18%)
1% (10-2)      Texas (4%)
1% (10-2)      Oklahoma (5%)
1% (9-3)      Wisconsin (20%)
1% (12-0)+L  UCF (3%)
0% (11-1)+W Toledo (2%)
0% (11-1)+W Air Force (7%)
0% (10-2)+W UCLA (3%)
0% (10-2)      Texas A&M (21%)
0% (11-1)+W Louisiana (1%)
0% (10-2)+W Virginia Tech (2%)
0% (10-2)+W Wake Forest (1%)
0% (11-1)+W Marshall (20%)
0% (10-2)+L  Texas (11%)
0% (10-2)+L  Iowa (12%)
0% (9-3)+W Texas (4%)
0% (11-1)      Army (2%)
0% (10-2)+W Arizona St (4%)
0% (10-2)+W Cincinnati (19%)
0% (11-1)+L  Virginia Tech (3%)
0% (9-3)      Penn State (30%)
0% (11-1)+L  Clemson (6%)
0% (10-2)      Florida (21%)
0% (11-1)+L  Miami (3%)
0% (10-2)+W Oregon (9%)
0% (9-3)+W Miami (4%)
0% (10-2)      Ole Miss (6%)
0% (10-2)+W Boise St (12%)
0% (10-2)      BYU (26%)
0% (10-2)      UCLA (14%)

Playoff chances, by conference, given a certain loss count (frequency of occurrence)
Code:
100% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (37%)
100% 0-loss CHAMP Big Ten (40%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (2%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP Big 12 (15%)
96% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (0%)
95% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (36%)
88% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (45%)
82% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (6%)
77% 0-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (3%)
75% 1-loss at large Big Ten (40%)
63% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (37%)
56% 1-loss at large SEC (53%)
53% 0-loss CHAMP MWC (2%)
48% 1-loss at large Big 12 (10%)
46% 1-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (18%)
46% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (5%)
46% 2-loss CHAMP Big Ten (16%)
42% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (38%)
35% 0-loss CHAMP MAC (6%)
34% 1-loss at large Pac 12 (5%)
23% 1-loss at large ACC (3%)
21% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (14%)
15% 2-loss at large Big Ten (96%)
10% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (33%)
8% 3-loss CHAMP Big Ten (5%)
5% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (30%)
4% 1-loss CHAMP MWC (12%)
3% 2-loss at large SEC (127%)
3% 1-loss at large AAC (6%)
2% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (38%)
2% 2-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (33%)
2% 2-loss at large Big 12 (49%)
2% 1-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (17%)
1% 1-loss CHAMP MAC (21%)
1% 1-loss CHAMP CUSA (21%)
0% 2-loss at large ACC (44%)
0% 3-loss at large Big Ten (137%)
0% 2-loss at large Pac 12 (50%)
0% 3-loss CHAMP Big 12 (11%)
0% 2-loss CHAMP AAC (35%)
0% 3-loss at large Big 12 (107%)
0% 3-loss CHAMP ACC (18%)
0% 2-loss CHAMP MWC (26%)

Most likely Top G5 Champ
Code:
1) 20.36% UCF (+7%)
2) 18.44% Cincinnati (==)
3) 13.09% Marshall (+12%)
4) 12.96% App St (+4%)
5) 10.42% Buffalo (+4%)
6) 6.42% Boise St (-21%)
7) 4.63% Air Force (-2%)
8) 2.28% Memphis (==)
9) 1.76% Louisiana (-1%)
10) 1.27% Toledo (==)
11) 1.13% UAB (+1%)
12) 0.98% San Diego St
13) 0.95% Western Michigan
14) 0.86% Ball St (-1%)[/b]
15) 0.48% Troy
16) 0.4% SMU
17) 0.38% Tulane
18) 0.38% Wyoming
19) 0.25% Navy
20) 0.21% North Texas
21) 0.19% WKU
22) 0.19% Eastern Michigan
23) 0.16% Nevada
24) 0.16% Ga Southern
25) 0.15% Arkansas St
26) 0.13% Colorado St
27) 0.13% San Jose St
28) 0.12% Tulsa
29) 0.11% UTEP
30) 0.11% UTSA
31) 0.08% FIU
32) 0.06% UNLV
33) 0.06% Charlotte
34) 0.06% FAU
35) 0.06% Georgia St
36) 0.05% Utah St
37) 0.04% Houston
38) 0.04% New Mexico
39) 0.04% Hawaii
40) 0.04% Kent St
41) 0.03% East Carolina
42) 0.03% Fresno St
43) 0.03% La Tech
44) 0.03% South Alabama
45) 0.02% Rice
46) 0.02% Middle Tennessee
47) 0.02% Ohio
48) 0.01% Temple
49) 0.01% Miami(OH)
50) 0.01% Northern Illinois

5-1-2 Playoff (WCG) *8th spot*
Code:
80.37% Ohio St (614/817) *1358*
75.27% Alabama (683/889) *1104*
72.02% Clemson (23/40) *9*
55.15% Oklahoma (54/89) *684*
51.09% Georgia (369/630) *1734*
51.04% Notre Dame (4262/6883) *842*
46.7% Texas (81/118) *669*
44.98% Iowa (370/669) *1525*
31.89% USC (76/218) *42*
31.61% Oregon (6/14) *15*
19.52% UCF (6/8) *71*
18.75% Cincinnati (0/7) *40*
17.98% Penn State (975/2214) *433*
14.17% App St (0/15) *1*
13.59% Marshall (2/5) *0*
12.76% Wisconsin (336/759) *324*
12.32% Miami (26/57) *28*
12.12% Buffalo (0/12) *3*
11.2% Texas A&M (453/1039) *185*
10.69% Arizona St (19/72) *7*
10.2% UCLA (52/356) *55*
9.78% Utah (17/74) *15*
9.33% Michigan (412/1217) *268*
7.84% Florida (208/603) *152*
7.81% Virginia Tech (36/116) *39*
5.68% OK State (16/60) *41*
5.48% Boise St (0/1) *1*
5.41% Air Force (9/79) *1*
5.31% Auburn (200/527) *120*
4.94% Wake Forest (38/184) *15*
4.54% Washington (0/0) *0*
4.31% Iowa St (7/42) *7*
3.96% BYU (361/1255) *35*
3.06% Stanford (6/6) *0*
2.88% TCU (9/23) *23*
2.3% Memphis (0/10) *3*
2.08% North Carolina (6/16) *1*
1.43% Louisiana (0/0) *0*
1.1% Toledo (1/2) *1*
1.08% Ole Miss (52/197) *29*
0.97% Boston College (6/60) *7*
0.96% Ball St (0/2) *0*
0.92% Virginia (6/13) *13*
0.92% San Diego St (0/13) *1*
0.91% Pittsburgh (7/9) *9*
0.89% UAB (0/0) *2*
0.85% Minnesota (53/84) *3*
0.8% Western Michigan (0/0) *0*
0.72% Kansas St (3/16) *8*
0.68% Colorado (0/14) *0*
0.64% LSU (15/52) *6*
0.62% Mississippi St (24/62) *22*
0.45% Washington St (0/0) *0*
0.45% Troy (0/8) *0*
0.39% NC State (0/11) *7*
0.39% Purdue (17/39) *8*
0.36% Missouri (24/78) *2*
0.35% Kentucky (9/42) *6*
0.32% South Carolina (18/18) *0*
0.32% WKU (0/0) *1*
0.28% SMU (0/0) *6*
0.26% Baylor (0/6) *0*
0.26% Wyoming (0/0) *0*
0.24% Eastern Michigan (0/0) *0*
0.23% Kansas (6/6) *0*
0.22% Nebraska (9/9) *6*
0.21% Louisville (0/0) *0*
0.21% San Jose St (0/0) *0*
0.2% Arkansas St (0/0) *0*
0.2% Ga Southern (0/0) *0*
0.18% Maryland (0/15) *6*
0.18% North Texas (0/0) *0*
0.16% Tulane (0/0) *0*
0.14% Syracuse (1/3) *0*
0.14% Coastal Carolina (0/0) *0*
0.13% Tulsa (0/0) *0*
0.13% Colorado St (0/0) *0*
0.12% South Alabama (0/0) *0*
0.11% Nevada (0/0) *0*
0.11% FAU (0/0) *0*
0.09% Navy (0/0) *0*
0.09% UNLV (0/0) *0*
0.09% Army (9/50) *0*
0.09% Northern Illinois (0/0) *0*
0.08% Oregon St (0/0) *0*
0.08% La Tech (0/0) *0*
0.07% Michigan St (6/12) *1*
0.07% Northwestern (1/1) *0*
0.07% Arizona (0/0) *0*
0.07% Houston (0/0) *0*
0.07% UTEP (0/0) *0*
0.07% Middle Tennessee (0/0) *0*
0.07% Akron (0/0) *0*
0.06% Rutgers (0/7) *6*
0.06% Rice (0/0) *0*
0.05% Vanderbilt (0/0) *0*
0.05% West Virginia (0/0) *0*
0.05% California (0/0) *0*
0.05% Georgia St (0/0) *0*
0.04% Georgia Tech (0/0) *0*
0.04% Indiana (1/25) *0*
0.03% Texas Tech (0/0) *0*
0.03% FIU (0/0) *0*
0.02% Illinois (0/0) *0*
0.02% Hawaii (0/0) *0*
0.01% Tennessee (0/13) *0*
0.01% Arkansas (0/7) *0*
0.01% Florida St (0/0) *0*
0.01% Duke (0/0) *0*
0.01% New Mexico (0/1) *0*
0.01% Utah St (0/0) *0*

6+6 Playoff, B=Bye, C=Champ First Round, A=At Large First Round
H=Home Game First Round, X=Champ but No Playoff (total 10,000 sims)
still need to auto-sort this one
Code:
B:313 C:87 A:2110 H:928 X:24 Florida
B:2809 C:192 A:5122 H:4050 X:5 Georgia
B:1 C:0 A:22 H:0 X:0 Tennessee
B:8 C:6 A:39 H:26 X:0 South Carolina
B:6 C:7 A:128 H:40 X:7 Kentucky
B:8 C:1 A:275 H:70 X:1 Missouri
B:0 C:4 A:13 H:0 X:1 Vanderbilt
B:5613 C:120 A:3229 H:2654 X:7 Alabama
B:14 C:23 A:163 H:40 X:6 LSU
B:175 C:34 A:1491 H:723 X:2 Auburn
B:1 C:0 A:15 H:2 X:0 Arkansas
B:18 C:9 A:572 H:188 X:0 Ole Miss
B:426 C:47 A:2585 H:1345 X:9 Texas A&M
B:14 C:0 A:170 H:52 X:2 Mississippi St
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:0 Florida St
B:4322 C:2250 A:570 H:652 X:598 Clemson
B:31 C:22 A:158 H:47 X:31 Boston College
B:188 C:155 A:503 H:224 X:98 Wake Forest
B:1 C:8 A:8 H:1 X:12 Louisville
B:9 C:8 A:56 H:30 X:15 NC State
B:0 C:0 A:23 H:4 X:13 Syracuse
B:29 C:33 A:69 H:22 X:13 Pittsburgh
B:467 C:466 A:610 H:285 X:245 Miami
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:1 X:2 Georgia Tech
B:248 C:282 A:571 H:233 X:176 Virginia Tech
B:3 C:33 A:71 H:41 X:37 Virginia
B:21 C:94 A:99 H:28 X:86 North Carolina
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:0 Duke
B:0 C:0 A:8448 H:7287 X:0 Notre Dame
B:12 C:0 A:53 H:15 X:0 Maryland
B:359 C:31 A:4338 H:2706 X:0 Penn State
B:236 C:17 A:3196 H:1760 X:0 Michigan
B:0 C:0 A:46 H:7 X:0 Michigan St
B:5970 C:94 A:3398 H:2983 X:1 Ohio St
B:0 C:0 A:14 H:8 X:0 Rutgers
B:3 C:0 A:129 H:41 X:0 Indiana
B:476 C:109 A:3285 H:1777 X:31 Wisconsin
B:1 C:0 A:7 H:6 X:1 Illinois
B:7 C:7 A:143 H:65 X:0 Purdue
B:0 C:0 A:13 H:7 X:6 Northwestern
B:21 C:6 A:242 H:105 X:2 Minnesota
B:2316 C:244 A:4778 H:3531 X:43 Iowa
B:7 C:0 A:28 H:10 X:0 Nebraska
B:1 C:1 A:1 H:0 X:3 West Virginia
B:9 C:7 A:27 H:6 X:1 Kansas
B:12 C:39 A:77 H:24 X:10 Kansas St
B:142 C:128 A:235 H:95 X:147 Iowa St
B:3769 C:843 A:1926 H:1287 X:165 Oklahoma
B:181 C:212 A:310 H:116 X:118 OK State
B:112 C:109 A:232 H:114 X:35 TCU
B:2985 C:799 A:2286 H:1522 X:136 Texas
B:0 C:2 A:13 H:1 X:1 Texas Tech
B:9 C:10 A:40 H:15 X:7 Baylor
B:24 C:24 A:41 H:17 X:20 Colorado
B:7 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Arizona
B:317 C:447 A:297 H:148 X:279 Arizona St
B:1348 C:1138 A:1017 H:661 X:585 USC
B:524 C:323 A:1182 H:555 X:66 UCLA
B:271 C:351 A:344 H:136 X:324 Utah
B:1 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:3 California
B:414 C:1158 A:169 H:169 X:1568 Oregon
B:0 C:1 A:6 H:0 X:7 Oregon St
B:28 C:53 A:15 H:9 X:219 Stanford
B:14 C:27 A:1 H:1 X:413 Washington
B:0 C:6 A:0 H:0 X:39 Washington St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 UConn
B:1033 C:1592 A:223 H:243 X:2219 Cincinnati
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:3 USF
B:1191 C:1509 A:377 H:427 X:955 UCF
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Temple
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 East Carolina
B:0 C:8 A:0 H:0 X:98 Houston
B:17 C:33 A:7 H:0 X:85 SMU
B:121 C:269 A:95 H:40 X:453 Memphis
B:12 C:8 A:0 H:7 X:112 Tulsa
B:7 C:11 A:6 H:0 X:134 Tulane
B:7 C:17 A:6 H:6 X:91 Navy
B:0 C:0 A:2148 H:1341 X:0 BYU
B:338 C:655 A:258 H:158 X:1198 Air Force
B:0 C:21 A:0 H:7 X:37 Colorado St
B:8 C:59 A:23 H:7 X:257 Wyoming
B:0 C:8 A:1 H:1 X:14 New Mexico
B:195 C:995 A:12 H:79 X:3683 Boise St
B:1 C:13 A:0 H:6 X:61 Utah St
B:2 C:8 A:0 H:0 X:58 UNLV
B:35 C:170 A:46 H:18 X:945 San Diego St
B:8 C:19 A:1 H:1 X:372 Nevada
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:101 Fresno St
B:8 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:138 Hawaii
B:12 C:18 A:0 H:0 X:561 San Jose St
B:0 C:8 A:0 H:0 X:462 La Tech
B:1 C:9 A:1 H:6 X:45 UTEP
B:0 C:6 A:0 H:0 X:85 Rice
B:13 C:5 A:1 H:2 X:90 North Texas
B:0 C:14 A:0 H:0 X:349 UTSA
B:45 C:132 A:3 H:19 X:1851 UAB
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:135 Southern Miss
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:8 Old Dominion
B:12 C:45 A:2 H:8 X:390 WKU
B:1 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:42 Charlotte
B:786 C:1580 A:89 H:202 X:3144 Marshall
B:0 C:14 A:6 H:0 X:60 Middle Tennessee
B:2 C:4 A:0 H:1 X:8 FIU
B:1 C:17 A:0 H:0 X:636 FAU
B:0 C:0 A:130 H:47 X:0 Army
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 UMass
B:700 C:1433 A:108 H:142 X:3272 Buffalo
B:0 C:6 A:0 H:0 X:334 Ohio
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:12 Bowling Green
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:85 Kent St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:182 Miami(OH)
B:0 C:19 A:0 H:0 X:25 Akron
B:1 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:81 Central Michigan
B:30 C:128 A:3 H:14 X:976 Western Michigan
B:2 C:20 A:0 H:0 X:83 Northern Illinois
B:35 C:205 A:22 H:25 X:1062 Toledo
B:44 C:146 A:20 H:28 X:804 Ball St
B:9 C:46 A:2 H:7 X:260 Eastern Michigan
B:0 C:0 A:16 H:9 X:0 Liberty
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 New Mexico St
B:30 C:68 A:27 H:3 X:380 Troy
B:12 C:18 A:6 H:6 X:309 Arkansas St
B:56 C:288 A:6 H:24 X:3042 Louisiana
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:17 La Monroe
B:1 C:13 A:0 H:0 X:71 South Alabama
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:19 Texas St
B:3 C:4 A:0 H:0 X:93 Georgia St
B:19 C:19 A:0 H:6 X:203 Ga Southern
B:895 C:1371 A:192 H:233 X:2614 App St
B:6 C:47 A:1 H:7 X:402 Coastal Carolina

UPDATED after finding bug that put Florida State in a ghost ACCCG 7/10 years.
(This post was last modified: 09-07-2021 04:10 PM by Crayton.)
09-05-2021 11:46 AM
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Crayton Online
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RE: Playoff Odds
Hard to find online odds for the 4 playoff spots with which to compare. A quarter of ESPN talking-heads think the SEC will place 3 teams:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...cks-week-1
09-05-2021 01:29 PM
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UofMstateU Offline
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RE: Playoff Odds
Im not sure any 0 loss acc team would 100% make the playoff at this point.
09-05-2021 02:51 PM
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Crayton Online
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RE: Playoff Odds
(09-05-2021 02:51 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Im not sure any 0 loss acc team would 100% make the playoff at this point.
Haha. Ya; I thinned out the data so much it is impossible to say who finished undefeated without manually digging through the data. With Miami, UNC, and Clemson all losing, there is <1% chance for the ACC Champ to be undefeated. And, that 100% may very well be 3 out of 3; not exactly a large enough sample size to be confident in that "100%" number.

For what it is worth, VT has to go through Miami, UNC, Notre Dame, and likely Clemson to go undefeated. If they do it (<1% chance) then making the playoff may be a "lock".
09-05-2021 04:25 PM
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RE: Playoff Odds
Under the 6+6, here are a few conference-level observations

The SEC and Big Ten miss <1% of the time and get the bye >94% of the time. No big surprise here.
The Big 12 is next, getting the bye >72% of the time and missing completely <6%.
Despite the Week 1 losses, the ACC Champ is 4th, missing only 13% and betting the bye >53%
The Pac-12 (especially the North) had a bad 1st week; their champ misses the playoff 35% and gets the bye 29%.
The American still has a ~P6 level forecast, missing the playoff >41% and getting the bye >23%.
The G4 each make the playoff ~25%-29% and get a bye ~6%-11% of the time.

At Larges? This is where the money is made (probably, maybe; we don't know yet where the money is made). If we average to the nearest tenth, here is the average allocation for the 6 at-larges.
2.0 Big Ten
1.6 SEC
0.8 Notre Dame
0.5 Big 12
0.3 ACC
0.3 Pac-12
0.2 BYU
0.1 American
0.0 all other FBS combined

Rounding by yet another magnitude, we get what we all expected: 2 SEC, 2 B1G, Notre Dame, and 1 Big 12. It'll be interesting how these numbers flex and change each week.

EDIT: Home Play-In Games are another data point to observe (1 Big Ten, 1 SEC, Notre Dame, and 1 toss-up)
1.3 Big Ten
1.1 SEC
0.8 Notre Dame
0.3 Big 12
0.2 Pac-12
0.2 ACC
0.1 American
0.1 BYU
0.1 everyone else
(This post was last modified: 09-07-2021 04:43 PM by Crayton.)
09-07-2021 04:37 PM
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Crayton Online
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RE: Playoff Odds
Playoff Chances, given a certain record (must be >1% chance of obtaining record)
Code:
100% (12-0)+W Georgia (14%)
100% (12-0)+W Alabama (20%)
100% (11-1)+W Michigan (2%)
100% (12-0)+W Iowa (9%)
99% (12-0)+W Oklahoma (20%)
99% (11-1)+W Penn State (3%)
99% (11-1)+W Ohio St (12%)
98% (12-0)+W Oregon (9%)
98% (11-1)+W Iowa (18%)
98% (11-1)+W Wisconsin (1%)
97% (12-0)      Notre Dame (11%)
97% (11-1)+W Alabama (22%)
95% (12-0)+W Cincinnati (1%)
94% (11-1)+W Texas A&M (2%)
93% (11-1)+W Georgia (17%)
93% (11-1)      Penn State (2%)
92% (12-0)      BYU (6%)
90% (12-0)+W UCF (6%)
88% (12-0)+L  Iowa (8%)
83% (10-2)+W Wisconsin (3%)
82% (11-1)+W Florida (1%)
81% (12-0)+L  Alabama (9%)
81% (10-2)+W Penn State (2%)
80% (11-1)      Michigan (2%)
79% (11-1)+W Oklahoma (30%)
79% (11-1)      Iowa (3%)
77% (12-0)+L  Georgia (16%)
72% (10-2)+W Michigan (2%)
70% (11-1)      Notre Dame (29%)
69% (11-1)      Alabama (5%)
69% (12-0)+L  Texas A&M (1%)
68% (12-0)+W Air Force (2%)
66% (10-2)+W Ohio St (17%)
65% (12-0)+L  Oklahoma (5%)
65% (11-1)+W Miami (2%)
61% (11-1)+W Virginia Tech (1%)
59% (10-2)+W Auburn (1%)
58% (11-1)+L  Penn State (4%)
57% (11-1)+L  Wisconsin (2%)
55% (11-1)      Georgia (3%)
50% (10-2)+W Iowa (9%)
47% (11-1)+W Clemson (29%)
47% (11-1)      Texas A&M (5%)
46% (11-1)+L  Michigan (3%)
43% (11-1)+L  Auburn (1%)
42% (10-2)+W Alabama (5%)
41% (12-0)+W Marshall (6%)
39% (11-1)+L  Ohio St (10%)
39% (10-2)      Penn State (18%)
36% (11-1)+W UCLA (3%)
34% (10-2)      Wisconsin (6%)
32% (11-1)+W Oregon (21%)
31% (10-2)+W Georgia (5%)
30% (10-2)+W Texas A&M (1%)
25% (11-1)+L  Iowa (15%)
25% (11-1)      Florida (2%)
21% (11-1)+W Boise St (2%)
21% (11-1)+L  Alabama (11%)
18% (10-2)      Michigan (17%)
18% (11-1)+W Arizona St (2%)
18% (11-1)+W Cincinnati (9%)
17% (12-0)+L  Oregon (3%)
17% (9-3)+W Wisconsin (3%)
16% (11-1)      Oregon (1%)
16% (12-0)+L  Cincinnati (1%)
15% (10-2)+L  Penn State (4%)
15% (10-2)+W Oklahoma (17%)
14% (9-3)+W Penn State (1%)
13% (10-2)      Auburn (6%)
13% (11-1)+L  Georgia (18%)
11% (11-1)      Wake Forest (1%)
10% (11-1)+W UCF (18%)
10% (12-0)+L  UCF (3%)
9% (10-2)      Ohio St (5%)
9% (9-3)+W Iowa (1%)
8% (10-2)+W Florida (1%)
7% (11-1)+L  Texas A&M (4%)
7% (10-2)      Iowa (10%)
7% (10-2)+W TCU (1%)
7% (11-1)+W Memphis (2%)
7% (9-3)+W Ohio St (5%)
6% (10-2)+W Texas (2%)
6% (11-1)      BYU (21%)
5% (10-2)      Notre Dame (30%)
4% (10-2)+W OK State (1%)
3% (10-2)      Alabama (13%)
3% (10-2)+L  Michigan (3%)
3% (11-1)+L  Oklahoma (6%)
3% (10-2)+W Miami (5%)
3% (10-2)+L  Wisconsin (5%)
3% (11-1)+L  Miami (4%)
2% (10-2)+W USC (1%)
2% (10-2)      Minnesota (1%)
2% (11-1)      Kentucky (1%)
2% (11-1)+L  Florida (5%)
2% (10-2)+W Virginia Tech (2%)
2% (10-2)+L  Ohio St (13%)
2% (10-2)+W Clemson (27%)
2% (10-2)      Mississippi St (2%)
2% (10-2)      Ole Miss (6%)
1% (10-2)      Texas A&M (22%)
1% (11-1)+L  Virginia Tech (3%)
1% (10-2)+W UCLA (5%)
1% (10-2)      Georgia (9%)
1% (10-2)+W Wake Forest (1%)
1% (11-1)+L  TCU (1%)
1% (11-1)+L  Pittsburgh (1%)
1% (10-2)      Oklahoma (1%)
1% (9-3)+W Oklahoma (3%)
1% (10-2)+L  Iowa (8%)
0% (10-2)      Virginia (1%)
0% (9-3)      Penn State (28%)
0% (9-3)      Wisconsin (20%)
0% (11-1)+W Air Force (7%)
0% (10-2)+L  Auburn (2%)
0% (10-2)+W Oregon (15%)
0% (11-1)      Marshall (2%)
0% (10-2)+W Boise St (11%)
0% (10-2)+W Arizona St (5%)
0% (11-1)      Army (4%)
0% (9-3)      Maryland (4%)
0% (10-2)      Florida (20%)
0% (11-1)+L  UCLA (4%)
0% (11-1)+L  Clemson (8%)
0% (10-2)+W Cincinnati (17%)
0% (11-1)+W Marshall (19%)
0% (11-1)      Air Force (5%)
0% (9-3)      Auburn (21%)
0% (10-2)+W UCF (13%)
0% (9-3)      Michigan (28%)
0% (9-3)      Ohio St (15%)

Playoff chances, by conference, given a certain loss count (frequency of occurrence)
Code:
100% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (36%)
100% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (0%)
100% 0-loss CHAMP Big Ten (10%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP Big 12 (20%)
99% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (38%)
98% 0-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (10%)
94% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (45%)
92% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (8%)
87% 1-loss at large Big Ten (18%)
78% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (32%)
66% 1-loss at large SEC (49%)
65% 2-loss CHAMP Big Ten (36%)
65% 0-loss CHAMP MWC (3%)
64% 1-loss at large Big 12 (5%)
48% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (34%)
40% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (7%)
34% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (16%)
31% 1-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (27%)
28% 2-loss at large Big Ten (98%)
17% 1-loss at large Pac 12 (8%)
17% 1-loss at large ACC (4%)
12% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (30%)
12% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (26%)
10% 3-loss CHAMP Big Ten (12%)
8% 1-loss at large AAC (7%)
6% 2-loss at large SEC (138%)
4% 1-loss CHAMP MWC (15%)
2% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (40%)
2% 3-loss CHAMP SEC (1%)
2% 2-loss at large Big 12 (17%)
1% 2-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (29%)
1% 3-loss at large Big Ten (159%)
0% 1-loss at large CUSA (4%)
0% 2-loss at large ACC (55%)
0% 2-loss CHAMP MWC (28%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP MAC (7%)
0% 3-loss CHAMP Big 12 (15%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP CUSA (20%)
0% 2-loss CHAMP AAC (35%)
0% 1-loss at large MWC (9%)
0% 2-loss at large Pac 12 (39%)
0% 3-loss at large SEC (181%)

Overall Playoff Chances (change since last week, after rounding down)
Code:
1) 59.06% Alabama (-5%)
2) 50.31% Oklahoma (+25%)
3) 49.8% Georgia (+13%)
4) 47.89% Iowa (+17%)
5) 33.95% Notre Dame (-14%)
6) 29.64% Ohio St (45%)
7) 20.63% Penn State (+10%)
8) 17.39% Oregon (+16%)
9) 14.65% Clemson (-1%)
10) 12.58% Michigan (+6%)
11) 9.25% Wisconsin (+1%)
12) 8.06% UCF (+3%)
13) 8.02% Texas A&M (+2%)
14) 7.09% BYU (+2%)
15) 4.43% Auburn (+3%)
16) 3.44% Florida (==)
17) 3.43% Cincinnati (-1%)
18) 2.93% Marshall (==)
19) 2.72% UCLA (-1%)
20) 1.81% Air Force (==)
21) 1.7% Miami (==)
22) 1.35% Virginia Tech (==)
23) 0.78% Arizona St (-1%)
24) 0.75% TCU
25) 0.66% OK State
26) 0.64% Boise St
27) 0.61% Ole Miss
28) 0.59% Memphis
29) 0.58% Pittsburgh
30) 0.48% Texas (-20%)
31) 0.43% Army
32) 0.42% Wake Forest
33) 0.3% Purdue
34) 0.28% Virginia
35) 0.27% Kentucky
36) 0.23% Kansas St
37) 0.22% Maryland
38) 0.18% Nebraska
39) 0.18% San Diego St
40) 0.17% Minnesota
41) 0.16% Michigan St
42) 0.15% Mississippi St
43) 0.14% Indiana
44) 0.14% Texas Tech
45) 0.14% Baylor
46) 0.12% Boston College
47) 0.12% USC (-7%)
48) 0.11% Iowa St
49) 0.11% Wyoming
50) 0.1% Stanford
51) 0.09% South Carolina
52) 0.08% LSU
53) 0.08% SMU
54) 0.07% Colorado
55) 0.06% Arkansas
56) 0.05% Tulane
57) 0.04% Georgia Tech
58) 0.04% Illinois
59) 0.03% Northwestern
60) 0.03% Kansas
61) 0.03% UTSA
62) 0.03% Liberty
63) 0.02% North Carolina
64) 0.02% Duke
65) 0.02% West Virginia
66) 0.02% Utah
67) 0.02% Washington St
68) 0.02% Nevada
69) 0.02% Charlotte
70) 0.02% Kent St
71) 0.01% New Mexico
72) 0.01% Utah St
73) 0.00% App St (-2%)

Most Likely G5 Champ
Code:
1) 28.57% UCF (+8%)
2) 22.28% Cincinnati (+4%)
3) 13.47% Marshall (==)
4) 8.58% Boise St (+2%)
5) 7.61% Air Force (+1%)
6) 4.22% Memphis (+2%)
7) 2.82% App St (-10%)
8) 2.23% San Diego St (+2%)
9) 1.39% Buffalo (-9%)
10) 1.21% Tulane (+1%)
11) 1.05% SMU (+1%)
12) 0.75% Wyoming
13) 0.74% Western Michigan
14) 0.72% FAU
15) 0.61% Toledo (-1%)
16) 0.54% Nevada
17) 0.5% UTSA
18) 0.3% Louisiana (-1%)
19) 0.29% UAB (-1%)
20) 0.24% Ball St
21) 0.2% Houston
22) 0.19% Utah St
23) 0.17% Eastern Michigan
24) 0.14% Central Michigan
25) 0.1% Fresno St
26) 0.1% San Jose St
27) 0.1% Charlotte
28) 0.09% Tulsa
29) 0.07% Kent St
30) 0.06% New Mexico
31) 0.06% Troy
32) 0.05% Navy
33) 0.05% La Tech
34) 0.05% North Texas
35) 0.04% WKU
36) 0.03% Colorado St
37) 0.03% Middle Tennessee
38) 0.03% FIU
39) 0.02% East Carolina
40) 0.02% UTEP
41) 0.02% South Alabama
42) 0.02% Georgia St
43) 0.01% UNLV
44) 0.01% Southern Miss
45) 0.01% Ohio
46) 0.01% Ga Southern

5-1-2 TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*
Code:
78.31% Oklahoma (25/39) *635*
70.77% Alabama (842/1102) *1404*
67.58% Clemson (14/31) *21*
61.07% Georgia (367/584) *1952*
59.72% Iowa (550/901) *1509*
52.14% Oregon (41/117) *132*
47.31% Ohio St (400/613) *669*
39.69% Notre Dame (3259/5564) *710*
30.21% UCF (8/21) *156*
28.35% Penn State (1259/2581) *762*
22.77% Cincinnati (3/13) *46*
18.65% Michigan (743/1663) *559*
16.59% Wisconsin (415/831) *332*
13.99% UCLA (41/139) *41*
13.76% Texas A&M (559/1278) *306*
13.58% Arizona St (5/10) *13*
13.53% Marshall (4/21) *2*
13.18% Miami (13/38) *40*
11.06% Texas (2/2) *11*
8.58% Boise St (0/4) *0*
8.53% Virginia Tech (29/110) *43*
8.06% USC (3/4) *3*
7.84% Stanford (3/3) *2*
7.84% Air Force (18/63) *5*
7.66% Auburn (272/637) *190*
7.45% Florida (201/532) *153*
5.92% OK State (0/15) *26*
5.59% BYU (516/1531) *43*
4.82% TCU (8/29) *28*
4.6% Utah (0/0) *0*
4.39% Memphis (6/27) *11*
4.1% Wake Forest (36/138) *10*
2.88% Iowa St (0/4) *1*
2.82% App St (0/0) *0*
2.48% Virginia (12/30) *11*
2.35% North Carolina (4/33) *4*
2.24% San Diego St (0/3) *1*
2.16% Pittsburgh (21/89) *8*
1.72% Ole Miss (90/317) *43*
1.39% Buffalo (0/0) *0*
1.32% Kansas St (2/6) *10*
1.32% Baylor (1/6) *5*
1.25% Tulane (0/1) *4*
1.21% Washington (0/0) *0*
1.15% West Virginia (0/2) *0*
1.09% Kentucky (26/115) *14*
1.08% SMU (0/4) *3*
0.96% Boston College (6/26) *0*
0.77% Wyoming (0/1) *2*
0.74% Western Michigan (0/0) *0*
0.72% Purdue (27/78) *13*
0.72% FAU (0/0) *0*
0.62% Colorado (0/0) *0*
0.61% Toledo (0/0) *0*
0.57% Minnesota (16/61) *7*
0.54% Louisville (3/3) *0*
0.54% Nevada (0/0) *0*
0.52% Mississippi St (26/114) *7*
0.52% Washington St (0/0) *0*
0.5% UTSA (0/0) *0*
0.45% Nebraska (17/23) *0*
0.42% LSU (12/38) *2*
0.41% Maryland (25/102) *5*
0.39% Texas Tech (0/0) *4*
0.38% Indiana (15/69) *12*
0.38% Kansas (0/0) *0*
0.3% Louisiana (0/0) *0*
0.29% Georgia Tech (0/0) *0*
0.29% UAB (0/0) *0*
0.26% Michigan St (8/47) *9*
0.25% Arkansas (9/31) *14*
0.24% Ball St (0/0) *0*
0.23% NC State (0/0) *0*
0.22% Army (20/98) *2*
0.2% Houston (0/0) *0*
0.2% Coastal Carolina (0/0) *0*
0.19% South Carolina (12/24) *0*
0.19% Utah St (0/0) *0*
0.17% Eastern Michigan (0/0) *0*
0.16% Florida St (0/0) *0*
0.15% Oregon St (0/0) *0*
0.14% Central Michigan (0/0) *0*
0.13% Duke (2/2) *0*
0.1% Northwestern (2/4) *3*
0.1% Fresno St (0/0) *0*
0.1% San Jose St (0/0) *0*
0.1% Charlotte (0/0) *0*
0.09% Tulsa (0/0) *0*
0.08% Syracuse (0/0) *0*
0.07% Arizona (0/0) *0*
0.07% Kent St (0/0) *0*
0.06% Missouri (0/9) *0*
0.06% Illinois (0/0) *0*
0.06% California (0/0) *0*
0.06% New Mexico (0/0) *0*
0.06% Troy (0/0) *0*
0.05% Vanderbilt (0/0) *0*
0.05% Navy (0/0) *0*
0.05% La Tech (0/0) *0*
0.05% North Texas (0/0) *0*
0.04% Rutgers (2/5) *2*
0.04% WKU (0/0) *0*
0.03% Colorado St (0/0) *0*
0.03% Middle Tennessee (0/0) *0*
0.03% FIU (0/0) *0*
0.02% East Carolina (0/0) *0*
0.02% UTEP (0/0) *0*
0.02% South Alabama (0/0) *0*
0.02% Georgia St (0/0) *0*
0.01% UNLV (0/0) *0*
0.01% Southern Miss (0/0) *0*
0.01% Ohio (0/0) *0*
0.01% Ga Southern (0/0) *0*

6+6 Playoff, B=Bye, C=Champ First Round, A=At Large First Round
H=Home Game First Round, X=Champ but No Playoff (total 10,000 sims)
Code:
B:321 C:73 A:1924 H:895 X:5 Florida
B:3697 C:134 A:4854 H:3904 X:5 Georgia
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Tennessee
B:8 C:0 A:72 H:29 X:0 South Carolina
B:35 C:29 A:351 H:126 X:5 Kentucky
B:2 C:2 A:33 H:10 X:2 Missouri
B:0 C:4 A:0 H:2 X:1 Vanderbilt
B:4801 C:83 A:4150 H:3389 X:0 Alabama
B:24 C:5 A:110 H:37 X:0 LSU
B:268 C:39 A:1873 H:964 X:1 Auburn
B:2 C:0 A:145 H:56 X:0 Arkansas
B:26 C:13 A:792 H:398 X:1 Ole Miss
B:488 C:32 A:3316 H:1853 X:0 Texas A&M
B:8 C:10 A:357 H:136 X:1 Mississippi St
B:0 C:5 A:0 H:2 X:12 Florida St
B:3759 C:2463 A:555 H:682 X:590 Clemson
B:31 C:39 A:91 H:41 X:23 Boston College
B:107 C:141 A:370 H:149 X:120 Wake Forest
B:7 C:24 A:15 H:6 X:21 Louisville
B:1 C:14 A:0 H:0 X:8 NC State
B:0 C:6 A:0 H:0 X:2 Syracuse
B:89 C:74 A:336 H:121 X:25 Pittsburgh
B:585 C:544 A:731 H:334 X:148 Miami
B:15 C:11 A:4 H:1 X:3 Georgia Tech
B:299 C:342 A:715 H:312 X:152 Virginia Tech
B:73 C:102 A:161 H:60 X:51 Virginia
B:62 C:103 A:121 H:43 X:63 North Carolina
B:8 C:3 A:2 H:0 X:0 Duke
B:0 C:0 A:7466 H:6091 X:0 Notre Dame
B:7 C:4 A:251 H:92 X:0 Maryland
B:766 C:56 A:5457 H:3712 X:1 Penn State
B:538 C:30 A:4191 H:2605 X:0 Michigan
B:7 C:3 A:130 H:52 X:0 Michigan St
B:3338 C:375 A:3590 H:2299 X:7 Ohio St
B:0 C:0 A:15 H:7 X:0 Rutgers
B:10 C:2 A:226 H:81 X:0 Indiana
B:780 C:137 A:3204 H:1716 X:7 Wisconsin
B:6 C:0 A:2 H:0 X:0 Illinois
B:23 C:9 A:233 H:105 X:1 Purdue
B:5 C:0 A:10 H:6 X:0 Northwestern
B:17 C:13 A:230 H:82 X:5 Minnesota
B:3780 C:165 A:4642 H:3667 X:3 Iowa
B:17 C:9 A:53 H:29 X:4 Nebraska
B:21 C:35 A:5 H:5 X:59 West Virginia
B:19 C:7 A:7 H:4 X:13 Kansas
B:50 C:59 A:108 H:52 X:13 Kansas St
B:70 C:116 A:34 H:14 X:105 Iowa St
B:6030 C:1061 A:1265 H:1196 X:126 Oklahoma
B:240 C:219 A:302 H:113 X:111 OK State
B:204 C:180 A:309 H:133 X:63 TCU
B:351 C:560 A:199 H:94 X:247 Texas
B:24 C:11 A:14 H:5 X:1 Texas Tech
B:29 C:60 A:68 H:35 X:38 Baylor
B:9 C:20 A:4 H:6 X:34 Colorado
B:1 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:4 Arizona
B:272 C:560 A:219 H:120 X:515 Arizona St
B:108 C:335 A:60 H:32 X:392 USC
B:625 C:516 A:788 H:393 X:182 UCLA
B:40 C:161 A:23 H:6 X:268 Utah
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:6 California
B:3081 C:1604 A:1101 H:870 X:419 Oregon
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:13 Oregon St
B:45 C:247 A:34 H:9 X:487 Stanford
B:1 C:8 A:0 H:0 X:115 Washington
B:11 C:18 A:2 H:1 X:24 Washington St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 UConn
B:1086 C:1811 A:324 H:327 X:1441 Cincinnati
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:4 USF
B:1890 C:1553 A:588 H:558 X:613 UCF
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:9 Temple
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:2 East Carolina
B:0 C:30 A:0 H:0 X:86 Houston
B:41 C:101 A:38 H:12 X:129 SMU
B:206 C:342 A:160 H:72 X:269 Memphis
B:0 C:11 A:0 H:0 X:43 Tulsa
B:29 C:141 A:16 H:14 X:224 Tulane
B:2 C:6 A:0 H:0 X:29 Navy
B:0 C:0 A:2757 H:1694 X:0 BYU
B:411 C:838 A:272 H:160 X:926 Air Force
B:0 C:6 A:0 H:0 X:61 Colorado St
B:30 C:122 A:30 H:10 X:192 Wyoming
B:4 C:4 A:0 H:2 X:12 New Mexico
B:379 C:1366 A:49 H:124 X:2788 Boise St
B:13 C:19 A:2 H:2 X:103 Utah St
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:48 UNLV
B:109 C:301 A:42 H:26 X:1033 San Diego St
B:23 C:76 A:0 H:4 X:487 Nevada
B:4 C:23 A:0 H:1 X:251 Fresno St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:52 Hawaii
B:0 C:28 A:0 H:0 X:414 San Jose St
B:3 C:13 A:0 H:0 X:482 La Tech
B:2 C:3 A:0 H:0 X:25 UTEP
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:34 Rice
B:1 C:4 A:0 H:0 X:82 North Texas
B:30 C:74 A:4 H:4 X:783 UTSA
B:12 C:64 A:1 H:0 X:1156 UAB
B:0 C:3 A:0 H:0 X:231 Southern Miss
B:2 C:5 A:0 H:0 X:26 Old Dominion
B:0 C:14 A:0 H:0 X:377 WKU
B:10 C:8 A:0 H:0 X:94 Charlotte
B:763 C:1642 A:95 H:170 X:2750 Marshall
B:0 C:4 A:0 H:1 X:50 Middle Tennessee
B:0 C:5 A:0 H:0 X:23 FIU
B:14 C:121 A:0 H:4 X:1213 FAU
B:0 C:0 A:246 H:84 X:0 Army
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 UMass
B:34 C:285 A:1 H:3 X:3824 Buffalo
B:0 C:4 A:0 H:0 X:151 Ohio
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:11 Bowling Green
B:6 C:4 A:0 H:2 X:571 Kent St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:370 Miami(OH)
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:34 Akron
B:3 C:26 A:0 H:2 X:339 Central Michigan
B:28 C:144 A:2 H:5 X:1213 Western Michigan
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:71 Northern Illinois
B:9 C:169 A:0 H:4 X:1766 Toledo
B:18 C:48 A:0 H:3 X:664 Ball St
B:1 C:26 A:0 H:0 X:305 Eastern Michigan
B:0 C:0 A:47 H:12 X:0 Liberty
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 New Mexico St
B:5 C:8 A:0 H:0 X:459 Troy
B:0 C:5 A:0 H:0 X:370 Arkansas St
B:4 C:62 A:0 H:0 X:2967 Louisiana
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:17 La Monroe
B:1 C:5 A:0 H:0 X:246 South Alabama
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:76 Texas St
B:0 C:4 A:0 H:0 X:100 Georgia St
B:0 C:4 A:0 H:0 X:153 Ga Southern
B:82 C:536 A:2 H:16 X:3867 App St
B:4 C:48 A:0 H:2 X:1100 Coastal Carolina
09-12-2021 02:29 PM
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Crayton Online
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Post: #7
RE: Playoff Odds
Update on 6+6 Playoff. SEC and Big Ten creep up in #of at larges and #of home games. BYU creeps as well after defeating Utah. The Pac-12, Notre Dame, and Big 12 sink a bit after lackluster weekends. The AAC and ACC kept about even with no blockbuster OOC games this weekend.

Where do the conference champs go?
BYE / First Round / Miss Playoff
95 / 4 / 0 SEC
91 / 7 / 0 Big Ten
69 / 22 / 7 Big 12
49 / 38 / 15 ACC
41 / 34 / 24 Pac-12
32 / 39 / 28 American
9 / 27 / 62 MW
8 / 19 / 72 CUSA
0 / 6 / 92 SB+MAC

At Larges (vs. last week)
2.2 Big Ten (+.2)
1.8 SEC (+.2)
0.7 Notre Dame (-.1)
0.3 ACC (==)
0.3 BYU (+.1)
0.2 Big 12 (-.3)
0.2 Pac-12 (-.1)
0.1 American (==)
0.1 Army+Air Force (+.1)
0.0 everyone else

Home Games
1.4 Big Ten (+.1)
1.2 SEC (+.1)
0.6 Notre Dame (-.2)
0.2 ACC (==)
0.2 Big 12 (-.1)
0.2 BYU (+.1)
0.1 Pac-12 (-.1)
0.1 American (==)
0.0 everyone else
(This post was last modified: 09-14-2021 09:19 AM by Crayton.)
09-14-2021 09:18 AM
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