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Ricefootballnet Offline
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Post: #1
For our resident statisticians, couple of questions…
How many games has number 5 either started or put in considerable playing time, and of those, how many have we won? And how many games has number 3 either started or put in considerable playing time, and of those, how many have we won? Just curious.
09-05-2021 12:24 AM
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franklyconfused Offline
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Post: #2
RE: For our resident statisticians, couple of questions…
Looking at just W/L, there's not much to tease out of either player's appearances.

JoVoni's stats are weird. He has played in eight games for us, four each in 2019 and 2020. If "considerable playing time" includes 0 of 1 passing and 10 carries for 62 yards and two scores, then 2019 W @ UTEP counts, but maybe it doesn't fit your intentions because Tom Stewart was clearly the main QB. JoVoni was brought it only to run in spot situations, and he wasn't given full responsibility for a drive until we were killing clock late. Unarguably, last year's win @ Marshall was JoVoni's, but so were the 2019 loss vs. Marshall and last year vs. UAB. You could maybe call him 2-2 as "the guy", but more reasonably 1-2 excluding 2019 UTEP. His 2019 appearances @ UTSA and vs. USM and 2020 vs. MTSU and @ USM saw him have a combined 11 carries for 77 yards, but 26 of that was a one-time play against 2019 UTSA where Green owned the drive (Rice 1Q at 13:36). Edit to add: JoVoni threw no passes in those four games. They were also, perhaps not coincidentally, his first two appearances each season.

Wiley has 13 total appearances since 2018. They're pretty much all more significant as a passer than JoVoni's; Green has never played and been given fewer than 5 pass attempts. You can maybe give Green credit for the 2018 win vs ODU where he was the starter and 6 of 13 passing for 96 yards (the only significant one was a 60 yard throw to Jordan Myers that set up the first TD) and had another 7 carries for 33 yards and a score. Outside that one long throw, Green was mostly a hand-off machine. Juma Otoviano was the offense that day. Every other game Green has appeared in was a loss, but a handful of them would really be credited to another QB, like 2019 Wake.

I think the best evaluation to make from this is that we don't win with Green and we don't know with JoVoni, but that's indistinguishable from "We don't win at all, and we don't play JoVoni." JoVoni has a higher pass completion percentage and a higher QBR, but I can't tell you why he doesn't play if Bloomgren has any other options.
(This post was last modified: 09-05-2021 07:38 AM by franklyconfused.)
09-05-2021 07:36 AM
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Ricefootballnet Offline
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Post: #3
RE: For our resident statisticians, couple of questions…
(09-05-2021 07:36 AM)franklyconfused Wrote:  Looking at just W/L, there's not much to tease out of either player's appearances.

JoVoni's stats are weird. He has played in eight games for us, four each in 2019 and 2020. If "considerable playing time" includes 0 of 1 passing and 10 carries for 62 yards and two scores, then 2019 W @ UTEP counts, but maybe it doesn't fit your intentions because Tom Stewart was clearly the main QB. JoVoni was brought it only to run in spot situations, and he wasn't given full responsibility for a drive until we were killing clock late. Unarguably, last year's win @ Marshall was JoVoni's, but so were the 2019 loss vs. Marshall and last year vs. UAB. You could maybe call him 2-2 as "the guy", but more reasonably 1-2 excluding 2019 UTEP. His 2019 appearances @ UTSA and vs. USM and 2020 vs. MTSU and @ USM saw him have a combined 11 carries for 77 yards, but 26 of that was a one-time play against 2019 UTSA where Green owned the drive (Rice 1Q at 13:36). Edit to add: JoVoni threw no passes in those four games. They were also, perhaps not coincidentally, his first two appearances each season.

Wiley has 13 total appearances since 2018. They're pretty much all more significant as a passer than JoVoni's; Green has never played and been given fewer than 5 pass attempts. You can maybe give Green credit for the 2018 win vs ODU where he was the starter and 6 of 13 passing for 96 yards (the only significant one was a 60 yard throw to Jordan Myers that set up the first TD) and had another 7 carries for 33 yards and a score. Outside that one long throw, Green was mostly a hand-off machine. Juma Otoviano was the offense that day. Every other game Green has appeared in was a loss, but a handful of them would really be credited to another QB, like 2019 Wake.

I think the best evaluation to make from this is that we don't win with Green and we don't know with JoVoni, but that's indistinguishable from "We don't win at all, and we don't play JoVoni." JoVoni has a higher pass completion percentage and a higher QBR, but I can't tell you why he doesn't play if Bloomgren has any other options.

Thanks for that analysis, well done.

Not sure precisely what can be concluded, but it’s food for thought.
09-05-2021 07:46 AM
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Post: #4
RE: For our resident statisticians, couple of questions…
So let's say that JoVoni is 1-2 as "the guy." That's 1-2 against three teams that include two conference division champions (one nationally ranked at the time we played) and one runner-up, with the win by a 20-point margin and the two losses by 13 and 5. That means that with him at QB we were competitive against some of the best teams we played in two seasons.

If we don't win with Wiley, I know where I'd rather take my chances. For now, I think I'd rather take my chances with McCaffrey than either of them. So I would rank them 1) McCaffrey, 2) JoVoni, 3) Wiley. If Wiley had more speed, I'd probably try to move him somewhere else that he could play, but I think he's just too slow to contribute elsewhere. Obviously a small sample size, but McCaffrey had a QBR of 51.4 versus Arkansas, not great but far better than Wiley's 28.3. And Wiley threw the 3 picks that were pretty much the difference in the game.
09-05-2021 09:49 AM
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Post: #5
RE: For our resident statisticians, couple of questions…
(09-05-2021 09:49 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  So let's say that JoVoni is 1-2 as "the guy." That's 1-2 against three teams that include two conference division champions (one nationally ranked at the time we played) and one runner-up, with the win by a 20-point margin and the two losses by 13 and 5. That means that with him at QB we were competitive against some of the best teams we played in two seasons.

If we don't win with Wiley, I know where I'd rather take my chances. For now, I think I'd rather take my chances with McCaffrey than either of them. So I would rank them 1) McCaffrey, 2) JoVoni, 3) Wiley. If Wiley had more speed, I'd probably try to move him somewhere else that he could play, but I think he's just too slow to contribute elsewhere. Obviously a small sample size, but McCaffrey had a QBR of 51.4 versus Arkansas, not great but far better than Wiley's 28.3. And Wiley threw the 3 picks that were pretty much the difference in the game.

McCaffrey was never left in the game long enough on consecutive drives to ever get comfortable.
09-05-2021 09:54 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #6
RE: For our resident statisticians, couple of questions…
(09-05-2021 09:49 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  So let's say that JoVoni is 1-2 as "the guy." That's 1-2 against three teams that include two conference division champions (one nationally ranked at the time we played) and one runner-up, with the win by a 20-point margin and the two losses by 13 and 5. That means that with him at QB we were competitive against some of the best teams we played in two seasons.

If we don't win with Wiley, I know where I'd rather take my chances. For now, I think I'd rather take my chances with McCaffrey than either of them. So I would rank them 1) McCaffrey, 2) JoVoni, 3) Wiley. If Wiley had more speed, I'd probably try to move him somewhere else that he could play, but I think he's just too slow to contribute elsewhere. Obviously a small sample size, but McCaffrey had a QBR of 51.4 versus Arkansas, not great but far better than Wiley's 28.3. And Wiley threw the 3 picks that were pretty much the difference in the game.

I remember seeing Green’s QBR at some point around halftime. It was around 145 and way ahead of McC’s. Clearly the last INT’s as we were desperately trying to catch up hurt us. But I think the worst thing we say - and it certainly is a bad thing to say about a QB - is that he did not respond well to pressure.

There must be a reason the ball was in Green’s hands when we were trying to salvage the game. Some alternatives come to mind.

1. Bloom is just stupid.
2. McC is not ready, for some reason
1+2. Bloom has a development schedule for Luke.

Until we have tried Luke under pressure, we don’t have a good comparison.
(This post was last modified: 09-05-2021 09:58 AM by OptimisticOwl.)
09-05-2021 09:57 AM
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Post: #7
RE: For our resident statisticians, couple of questions…
I think the interceptions are simply representative of the limitations of Green's skill sets, not on any failure to respond to pressure. He does not have the speed or elusiveness to escape the rush, or the arm strength and accuracy to make the throws.

At this point, it would seem to me that the evaluation of the three would conclude regarding their ability to be "the man":

Wiley--No.
JoVoni--Don't know.
Luke--Don't know. On paper, better runner than Wiley, and better thrower than JoVoni.

On that basis, I rank them 1) Luke, 2) JoVoni, 3) Wiley.
09-05-2021 10:09 AM
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Post: #8
RE: For our resident statisticians, couple of questions…
(09-05-2021 09:57 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(09-05-2021 09:49 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  So let's say that JoVoni is 1-2 as "the guy." That's 1-2 against three teams that include two conference division champions (one nationally ranked at the time we played) and one runner-up, with the win by a 20-point margin and the two losses by 13 and 5. That means that with him at QB we were competitive against some of the best teams we played in two seasons.

If we don't win with Wiley, I know where I'd rather take my chances. For now, I think I'd rather take my chances with McCaffrey than either of them. So I would rank them 1) McCaffrey, 2) JoVoni, 3) Wiley. If Wiley had more speed, I'd probably try to move him somewhere else that he could play, but I think he's just too slow to contribute elsewhere. Obviously a small sample size, but McCaffrey had a QBR of 51.4 versus Arkansas, not great but far better than Wiley's 28.3. And Wiley threw the 3 picks that were pretty much the difference in the game.

I remember seeing Green’s QBR at some point around halftime. It was around 145 and way ahead of McC’s. Clearly the last INT’s as we were desperately trying to catch up hurt us. But I think the worst thing we say - and it certainly is a bad thing to say about a QB - is that he did not respond well to pressure.

There must be a reason the ball was in Green’s hands when we were trying to salvage the game. Some alternatives come to mind.

1. Bloom is just stupid.
2. McC is not ready, for some reason
1+2. Bloom has a development schedule for Luke.

Until we have tried Luke under pressure, we don’t have a good comparison.

Only the 3rd interception was in desperation time. The first two occurred when we were still very much in the game. And let's not forget the fumble. Or the 3 running plays for losses; two of which he tripped over himself.

I'm hoping this was Bloom giving Green every possible opportunity to prove himself, and then redeem himself, given that he's the senior and a co-captain. For Green to say post-game "he expects more of himself", why exactly? This is exactly who he has been for the duration of his Rice career.
09-05-2021 10:09 AM
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Post: #9
RE: For our resident statisticians, couple of questions…
(09-05-2021 10:09 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(09-05-2021 09:57 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(09-05-2021 09:49 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  So let's say that JoVoni is 1-2 as "the guy." That's 1-2 against three teams that include two conference division champions (one nationally ranked at the time we played) and one runner-up, with the win by a 20-point margin and the two losses by 13 and 5. That means that with him at QB we were competitive against some of the best teams we played in two seasons.

If we don't win with Wiley, I know where I'd rather take my chances. For now, I think I'd rather take my chances with McCaffrey than either of them. So I would rank them 1) McCaffrey, 2) JoVoni, 3) Wiley. If Wiley had more speed, I'd probably try to move him somewhere else that he could play, but I think he's just too slow to contribute elsewhere. Obviously a small sample size, but McCaffrey had a QBR of 51.4 versus Arkansas, not great but far better than Wiley's 28.3. And Wiley threw the 3 picks that were pretty much the difference in the game.

I remember seeing Green’s QBR at some point around halftime. It was around 145 and way ahead of McC’s. Clearly the last INT’s as we were desperately trying to catch up hurt us. But I think the worst thing we say - and it certainly is a bad thing to say about a QB - is that he did not respond well to pressure.

There must be a reason the ball was in Green’s hands when we were trying to salvage the game. Some alternatives come to mind.

1. Bloom is just stupid.
2. McC is not ready, for some reason
1+2. Bloom has a development schedule for Luke.

Until we have tried Luke under pressure, we don’t have a good comparison.

Only the 3rd interception was in desperation time. The first two occurred when we were still very much in the game. And let's not forget the fumble. Or the 3 running plays for losses; two of which he tripped over himself.

I'm hoping this was Bloom giving Green every possible opportunity to prove himself, and then redeem himself, given that he's the senior and a co-captain. For Green to say post-game "he expects more of himself", why exactly? This is exactly who he has been for the duration of his Rice career.

I was not watching the game, I was listening and following the live stats.

So maybe some or all of what you say may well be true.

But it seems to me we had two Greens - one for the first 40 or so minutes, and one for the end of the game. The first one can win for us, the other not so much.

I’m Ok with playing Green as the primary at UH. I’mOk with him being replaced by Jovani or Luke. But I am skeptical that either will prove to be head and shoulders better. I hope one of them proves me wrong.
09-05-2021 10:22 AM
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Post: #10
RE: For our resident statisticians, couple of questions…
(09-05-2021 09:57 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(09-05-2021 09:49 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  So let's say that JoVoni is 1-2 as "the guy." That's 1-2 against three teams that include two conference division champions (one nationally ranked at the time we played) and one runner-up, with the win by a 20-point margin and the two losses by 13 and 5. That means that with him at QB we were competitive against some of the best teams we played in two seasons.

If we don't win with Wiley, I know where I'd rather take my chances. For now, I think I'd rather take my chances with McCaffrey than either of them. So I would rank them 1) McCaffrey, 2) JoVoni, 3) Wiley. If Wiley had more speed, I'd probably try to move him somewhere else that he could play, but I think he's just too slow to contribute elsewhere. Obviously a small sample size, but McCaffrey had a QBR of 51.4 versus Arkansas, not great but far better than Wiley's 28.3. And Wiley threw the 3 picks that were pretty much the difference in the game.

I remember seeing Green’s QBR at some point around halftime. It was around 145 and way ahead of McC’s. Clearly the last INT’s as we were desperately trying to catch up hurt us. But I think the worst thing we say - and it certainly is a bad thing to say about a QB - is that he did not respond well to pressure.

There must be a reason the ball was in Green’s hands when we were trying to salvage the game. Some alternatives come to mind.

1. Bloom is just stupid.
2. McC is not ready, for some reason
1+2. Bloom has a development schedule for Luke.

Until we have tried Luke under pressure, we don’t have a good comparison.

I've never done this before, so correct me if I'm wrong. I just calculated both QBs' QBRs at end of each drive by this formula I found for NCAA:

(8.4*Yards + 330*TDs + 100*Comp. - 200*Int.) / Attempts

I got that Green's first-half peak was 130.4 when he was 4 or 5 for 30 yards. At halftime, he was 92.0 at 5 of 10 for 50 yards. His peak for the game was 149.8 after his TD pass to give us the 17-7 lead. He started the second half 4 of 5 for 71 yards and a score, and it was downhill from there. The rest of his second half was 3 of 9 for 31 yards and three interceptions, bringing his QBR back to 92.0.

McCaffrey was only given 3 passes in the first half, 1 of 3 for 10 yards. He got the drive right after Green's TD pass and went 3 of 4 for 50, not too far off Green's pace the drive before, but then the run game stalled the drive and Bloom inexplicably swapped in Green for the failed 4th down hand-off. At that point, Green's QBR was 149.8 and McCaffrey's was 129.1. Bloom went back to Green for the next four disastrous drives. McCaffrey's garbage time final minute brought him down to a 113.0, if you think he played enough for meaningful stats.

For giggles, I ran the NFL formula, too, and it's even less friendly to Wiley. Peak of 107.9 after the passing TD; finish of 31.9 (worse than going 0 of 0).
09-05-2021 10:58 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #11
RE: For our resident statisticians, couple of questions…
Seems like a Jekyll and Hyde performance by Green.
09-05-2021 11:21 AM
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Post: #12
RE: For our resident statisticians, couple of questions…
(09-05-2021 11:21 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Seems like a Jekyll and Hyde performance by Green.

I watched the game at a friend's place and don't have TV service myself, so I can't review the video to comment on anything much more specifically than what's in the box score. I don't remember Arkansas doing anything especially different on defense in the 4th quarter when the wheels came off. Here's what I can see by drive, in order of occurrence:
  • If I recall, the first interception was tipped at the line on 2nd and 11. The TV crew didn't show it well, but I think the left end got a hand on it. Arkansas took the lead, 24-17.
  • The second interception was a 3rd and long after two stuffed runs. Defense forced a 3 and out.
  • The fumble was another 3rd and long after two stuffed runs. Ark. TD, 31-17.
  • The final interception was second and very long (19) when Green was already obviously throwing every down because we only had 4 minutes to score at least 14 points.

Out of those four drives, the first one was the last time we had multiple successful runs. Two carries for 9 yards, but we got pushed into the 2nd and long intercepted throw because of a holding penalty downfield. (E: It was 3 runs for 16 yards including the last play of 3Q) Maybe Arkansas changed something at the line; maybe we just got tired. Either way, our next two drives each had one run over 2 yards out of seven total carries.

I don't think Arkansas really did change anything in the 4th quarter. We started running into their teeth, and it bit us. Our first drive in the third quarter failed the same way: a couple of good passes to start, then we handed off on first and second down for a net of 1 yard to set up 3rd and 9 incomplete. We came out passing the next few drives, split between the two QBs, and did reasonably well until the failed fourth and short. Once Arkansas took the lead, Bloom fell back to conservatively leaning on the run to shorten the game and settle the team down, and it backfired by putting Green and the line in obvious throwing situations. I would need to review the video, but either he's not good enough at reading a defense or he's not good enough at placing passes, but the Arkansas secondary ate him alive when they didn't need to watch for a running play.
(This post was last modified: 09-05-2021 12:32 PM by franklyconfused.)
09-05-2021 12:31 PM
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Post: #13
RE: For our resident statisticians, couple of questions…
(09-05-2021 12:31 PM)franklyconfused Wrote:  
(09-05-2021 11:21 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Seems like a Jekyll and Hyde performance by Green.

I watched the game at a friend's place and don't have TV service myself, so I can't review the video to comment on anything much more specifically than what's in the box score. I don't remember Arkansas doing anything especially different on defense in the 4th quarter when the wheels came off. Here's what I can see by drive, in order of occurrence:
  • If I recall, the first interception was tipped at the line on 2nd and 11. The TV crew didn't show it well, but I think the left end got a hand on it. Arkansas took the lead, 24-17.
  • The second interception was a 3rd and long after two stuffed runs. Defense forced a 3 and out.
  • The fumble was another 3rd and long after two stuffed runs. Ark. TD, 31-17.
  • The final interception was second and very long (19) when Green was already obviously throwing every down because we only had 4 minutes to score at least 14 points.

Out of those four drives, the first one was the last time we had multiple successful runs. Two carries for 9 yards, but we got pushed into the 2nd and long intercepted throw because of a holding penalty downfield. (E: It was 3 runs for 16 yards including the last play of 3Q) Maybe Arkansas changed something at the line; maybe we just got tired. Either way, our next two drives each had one run over 2 yards out of seven total carries.

I don't think Arkansas really did change anything in the 4th quarter. We started running into their teeth, and it bit us. Our first drive in the third quarter failed the same way: a couple of good passes to start, then we handed off on first and second down for a net of 1 yard to set up 3rd and 9 incomplete. We came out passing the next few drives, split between the two QBs, and did reasonably well until the failed fourth and short. Once Arkansas took the lead, Bloom fell back to conservatively leaning on the run to shorten the game and settle the team down, and it backfired by putting Green and the line in obvious throwing situations. I would need to review the video, but either he's not good enough at reading a defense or he's not good enough at placing passes, but the Arkansas secondary ate him alive when they didn't need to watch for a running play.

So I guess the theme here is that McCaffrey or Johnson can do better than Green when Bloom puts them in bad situations.

Ok with me. Try it.
09-05-2021 02:23 PM
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Post: #14
RE: For our resident statisticians, couple of questions…
(09-05-2021 12:31 PM)franklyconfused Wrote:  
  • If I recall, the first interception was tipped at the line on 2nd and 11. The TV crew didn't show it well, but I think the left end got a hand on it. Arkansas took the lead, 24-17.
  • The second interception was a 3rd and long after two stuffed runs. Defense forced a 3 and out.
  • The fumble was another 3rd and long after two stuffed runs. Ark. TD, 31-17.
  • The final interception was second and very long (19) when Green was already obviously throwing every down because we only had 4 minutes to score at least 14 points.

I am seeing a pattern here - are you? I wonder how many of our QBs will fare well constantly facing second/third and long.
(This post was last modified: 09-05-2021 02:29 PM by OptimisticOwl.)
09-05-2021 02:28 PM
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Post: #15
RE: For our resident statisticians, couple of questions…
(09-05-2021 02:28 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(09-05-2021 12:31 PM)franklyconfused Wrote:  
  • If I recall, the first interception was tipped at the line on 2nd and 11. The TV crew didn't show it well, but I think the left end got a hand on it. Arkansas took the lead, 24-17.
  • The second interception was a 3rd and long after two stuffed runs. Defense forced a 3 and out.
  • The fumble was another 3rd and long after two stuffed runs. Ark. TD, 31-17.
  • The final interception was second and very long (19) when Green was already obviously throwing every down because we only had 4 minutes to score at least 14 points.

I am seeing a pattern here - are you? I wonder how many of our QBs will fare well constantly facing second/third and long.

My takeaway isn't far off from yours; I'm only saying what's observed from the data we have and not any counter-factuals. For the first one, the Int stat gets charged to Green, but the fault is the right tackle for letting the end get his hands up. On the last three, Green is not up to the task of throwing through the Arkansas secondary when they're certain a pass is coming. I doubt Jovoni or any of the other unplayed backups can, and given McCaffrey's dismal numbers at Nebraska, he probably can't, either. Even if we blame bad luck for the first interception, the failure of Bloomgren's core thesis for the offense created the last three. Whether you point that failure on his development of an o-line unable to block for the run or on his failure to recruit/develop a QB who can pass without a run threat is your choice. They're both Bloom's shortcomings; they both have to be solved to get this team where we want to be.

Looking at the entire game, ignoring 1st downs, we only had two completions on any downs with more than 8 yards to go, for gains of 6 and 0. Both of those were by Green in the first quarter. So we don't do well passing when the defense expects it. Surprise?

Our first down passes were actually 5 of 10 on the game for 73 yards and a score, and that includes the 4th Q of zero first down completions in four plays (3 incomplete and 1 sack) when Arkansas was sitting back and waiting for it. The meaningful stat then is that when Arkansas was worried about the run, our QBs (mostly Green) went 5 of 7 for 73 yards with a 41-yd TD on first downs. One of the two incomplete was McCaffrey on 1st and 5 for his first pass. Our QBs are, or at least, Green is, adequate when not under pressure.
09-05-2021 03:13 PM
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Post: #16
RE: For our resident statisticians, couple of questions…
(09-05-2021 03:13 PM)franklyconfused Wrote:  
(09-05-2021 02:28 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(09-05-2021 12:31 PM)franklyconfused Wrote:  
  • If I recall, the first interception was tipped at the line on 2nd and 11. The TV crew didn't show it well, but I think the left end got a hand on it. Arkansas took the lead, 24-17.
  • The second interception was a 3rd and long after two stuffed runs. Defense forced a 3 and out.
  • The fumble was another 3rd and long after two stuffed runs. Ark. TD, 31-17.
  • The final interception was second and very long (19) when Green was already obviously throwing every down because we only had 4 minutes to score at least 14 points.

I am seeing a pattern here - are you? I wonder how many of our QBs will fare well constantly facing second/third and long.

My takeaway isn't far off from yours; I'm only saying what's observed from the data we have and not any counter-factuals. For the first one, the Int stat gets charged to Green, but the fault is the right tackle for letting the end get his hands up. On the last three, Green is not up to the task of throwing through the Arkansas secondary when they're certain a pass is coming. I doubt Jovoni or any of the other unplayed backups can, and given McCaffrey's dismal numbers at Nebraska, he probably can't, either. Even if we blame bad luck for the first interception, the failure of Bloomgren's core thesis for the offense created the last three. Whether you point that failure on his development of an o-line unable to block for the run or on his failure to recruit/develop a QB who can pass without a run threat is your choice. They're both Bloom's shortcomings; they both have to be solved to get this team where we want to be.

Looking at the entire game, ignoring 1st downs, we only had two completions on any downs with more than 8 yards to go, for gains of 6 and 0. Both of those were by Green in the first quarter. So we don't do well passing when the defense expects it. Surprise?

Our first down passes were actually 5 of 10 on the game for 73 yards and a score, and that includes the 4th Q of zero first down completions in four plays (3 incomplete and 1 sack) when Arkansas was sitting back and waiting for it. The meaningful stat then is that when Arkansas was worried about the run, our QBs (mostly Green) went 5 of 7 for 73 yards with a 41-yd TD on first downs. One of the two incomplete was McCaffrey on 1st and 5 for his first pass. Our QBs are, or at least, Green is, adequate when not under pressure.

Seems like the player we need to replace is Bloomgren.
09-05-2021 03:19 PM
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Pan95 Offline
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Post: #17
RE: For our resident statisticians, couple of questions…
(09-05-2021 10:58 AM)franklyconfused Wrote:  
(09-05-2021 09:57 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(09-05-2021 09:49 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  So let's say that JoVoni is 1-2 as "the guy." That's 1-2 against three teams that include two conference division champions (one nationally ranked at the time we played) and one runner-up, with the win by a 20-point margin and the two losses by 13 and 5. That means that with him at QB we were competitive against some of the best teams we played in two seasons.

If we don't win with Wiley, I know where I'd rather take my chances. For now, I think I'd rather take my chances with McCaffrey than either of them. So I would rank them 1) McCaffrey, 2) JoVoni, 3) Wiley. If Wiley had more speed, I'd probably try to move him somewhere else that he could play, but I think he's just too slow to contribute elsewhere. Obviously a small sample size, but McCaffrey had a QBR of 51.4 versus Arkansas, not great but far better than Wiley's 28.3. And Wiley threw the 3 picks that were pretty much the difference in the game.

I remember seeing Green’s QBR at some point around halftime. It was around 145 and way ahead of McC’s. Clearly the last INT’s as we were desperately trying to catch up hurt us. But I think the worst thing we say - and it certainly is a bad thing to say about a QB - is that he did not respond well to pressure.

There must be a reason the ball was in Green’s hands when we were trying to salvage the game. Some alternatives come to mind.

1. Bloom is just stupid.
2. McC is not ready, for some reason
1+2. Bloom has a development schedule for Luke.

Until we have tried Luke under pressure, we don’t have a good comparison.

I've never done this before, so correct me if I'm wrong. I just calculated both QBs' QBRs at end of each drive by this formula I found for NCAA:

(8.4*Yards + 330*TDs + 100*Comp. - 200*Int.) / Attempts

I got that Green's first-half peak was 130.4 when he was 4 or 5 for 30 yards. At halftime, he was 92.0 at 5 of 10 for 50 yards. His peak for the game was 149.8 after his TD pass to give us the 17-7 lead. He started the second half 4 of 5 for 71 yards and a score, and it was downhill from there. The rest of his second half was 3 of 9 for 31 yards and three interceptions, bringing his QBR back to 92.0.

McCaffrey was only given 3 passes in the first half, 1 of 3 for 10 yards. He got the drive right after Green's TD pass and went 3 of 4 for 50, not too far off Green's pace the drive before, but then the run game stalled the drive and Bloom inexplicably swapped in Green for the failed 4th down hand-off. At that point, Green's QBR was 149.8 and McCaffrey's was 129.1. Bloom went back to Green for the next four disastrous drives. McCaffrey's garbage time final minute brought him down to a 113.0, if you think he played enough for meaningful stats.

For giggles, I ran the NFL formula, too, and it's even less friendly to Wiley. Peak of 107.9 after the passing TD; finish of 31.9 (worse than going 0 of 0).


FYI, Green replaced McCaffrey on that 4th down play because McCaffrey had his helmet knocked off. That also happened to him earlier in the game.
09-05-2021 09:32 PM
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Tomball Owl Offline
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Post: #18
RE: For our resident statisticians, couple of questions…
(09-05-2021 09:32 PM)Pan95 Wrote:  
(09-05-2021 10:58 AM)franklyconfused Wrote:  
(09-05-2021 09:57 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(09-05-2021 09:49 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  So let's say that JoVoni is 1-2 as "the guy." That's 1-2 against three teams that include two conference division champions (one nationally ranked at the time we played) and one runner-up, with the win by a 20-point margin and the two losses by 13 and 5. That means that with him at QB we were competitive against some of the best teams we played in two seasons.

If we don't win with Wiley, I know where I'd rather take my chances. For now, I think I'd rather take my chances with McCaffrey than either of them. So I would rank them 1) McCaffrey, 2) JoVoni, 3) Wiley. If Wiley had more speed, I'd probably try to move him somewhere else that he could play, but I think he's just too slow to contribute elsewhere. Obviously a small sample size, but McCaffrey had a QBR of 51.4 versus Arkansas, not great but far better than Wiley's 28.3. And Wiley threw the 3 picks that were pretty much the difference in the game.

I remember seeing Green’s QBR at some point around halftime. It was around 145 and way ahead of McC’s. Clearly the last INT’s as we were desperately trying to catch up hurt us. But I think the worst thing we say - and it certainly is a bad thing to say about a QB - is that he did not respond well to pressure.

There must be a reason the ball was in Green’s hands when we were trying to salvage the game. Some alternatives come to mind.

1. Bloom is just stupid.
2. McC is not ready, for some reason
1+2. Bloom has a development schedule for Luke.

Until we have tried Luke under pressure, we don’t have a good comparison.

I've never done this before, so correct me if I'm wrong. I just calculated both QBs' QBRs at end of each drive by this formula I found for NCAA:

(8.4*Yards + 330*TDs + 100*Comp. - 200*Int.) / Attempts

I got that Green's first-half peak was 130.4 when he was 4 or 5 for 30 yards. At halftime, he was 92.0 at 5 of 10 for 50 yards. His peak for the game was 149.8 after his TD pass to give us the 17-7 lead. He started the second half 4 of 5 for 71 yards and a score, and it was downhill from there. The rest of his second half was 3 of 9 for 31 yards and three interceptions, bringing his QBR back to 92.0.

McCaffrey was only given 3 passes in the first half, 1 of 3 for 10 yards. He got the drive right after Green's TD pass and went 3 of 4 for 50, not too far off Green's pace the drive before, but then the run game stalled the drive and Bloom inexplicably swapped in Green for the failed 4th down hand-off. At that point, Green's QBR was 149.8 and McCaffrey's was 129.1. Bloom went back to Green for the next four disastrous drives. McCaffrey's garbage time final minute brought him down to a 113.0, if you think he played enough for meaningful stats.

For giggles, I ran the NFL formula, too, and it's even less friendly to Wiley. Peak of 107.9 after the passing TD; finish of 31.9 (worse than going 0 of 0).


FYI, Green replaced McCaffrey on that 4th down play because McCaffrey had his helmet knocked off. That also happened to him earlier in the game.

Man, the Owls need to invest in some decent chin straps. If one of us donates some $ for chin straps, and maybe some super glue, do we get naming rights?
09-06-2021 12:51 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #19
RE: For our resident statisticians, couple of questions…
(09-06-2021 12:51 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  
(09-05-2021 09:32 PM)Pan95 Wrote:  
(09-05-2021 10:58 AM)franklyconfused Wrote:  
(09-05-2021 09:57 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(09-05-2021 09:49 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  So let's say that JoVoni is 1-2 as "the guy." That's 1-2 against three teams that include two conference division champions (one nationally ranked at the time we played) and one runner-up, with the win by a 20-point margin and the two losses by 13 and 5. That means that with him at QB we were competitive against some of the best teams we played in two seasons.

If we don't win with Wiley, I know where I'd rather take my chances. For now, I think I'd rather take my chances with McCaffrey than either of them. So I would rank them 1) McCaffrey, 2) JoVoni, 3) Wiley. If Wiley had more speed, I'd probably try to move him somewhere else that he could play, but I think he's just too slow to contribute elsewhere. Obviously a small sample size, but McCaffrey had a QBR of 51.4 versus Arkansas, not great but far better than Wiley's 28.3. And Wiley threw the 3 picks that were pretty much the difference in the game.

I remember seeing Green’s QBR at some point around halftime. It was around 145 and way ahead of McC’s. Clearly the last INT’s as we were desperately trying to catch up hurt us. But I think the worst thing we say - and it certainly is a bad thing to say about a QB - is that he did not respond well to pressure.

There must be a reason the ball was in Green’s hands when we were trying to salvage the game. Some alternatives come to mind.

1. Bloom is just stupid.
2. McC is not ready, for some reason
1+2. Bloom has a development schedule for Luke.

Until we have tried Luke under pressure, we don’t have a good comparison.

I've never done this before, so correct me if I'm wrong. I just calculated both QBs' QBRs at end of each drive by this formula I found for NCAA:

(8.4*Yards + 330*TDs + 100*Comp. - 200*Int.) / Attempts

I got that Green's first-half peak was 130.4 when he was 4 or 5 for 30 yards. At halftime, he was 92.0 at 5 of 10 for 50 yards. His peak for the game was 149.8 after his TD pass to give us the 17-7 lead. He started the second half 4 of 5 for 71 yards and a score, and it was downhill from there. The rest of his second half was 3 of 9 for 31 yards and three interceptions, bringing his QBR back to 92.0.

McCaffrey was only given 3 passes in the first half, 1 of 3 for 10 yards. He got the drive right after Green's TD pass and went 3 of 4 for 50, not too far off Green's pace the drive before, but then the run game stalled the drive and Bloom inexplicably swapped in Green for the failed 4th down hand-off. At that point, Green's QBR was 149.8 and McCaffrey's was 129.1. Bloom went back to Green for the next four disastrous drives. McCaffrey's garbage time final minute brought him down to a 113.0, if you think he played enough for meaningful stats.

For giggles, I ran the NFL formula, too, and it's even less friendly to Wiley. Peak of 107.9 after the passing TD; finish of 31.9 (worse than going 0 of 0).


FYI, Green replaced McCaffrey on that 4th down play because McCaffrey had his helmet knocked off. That also happened to him earlier in the game.

Man, the Owls need to invest in some decent chin straps. If one of us donates some $ for chin straps, and maybe some super glue, do we get naming rights?

The Tomball Owl chin straps?
09-06-2021 01:06 PM
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Tomball Owl Offline
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Post: #20
RE: For our resident statisticians, couple of questions…
(09-06-2021 01:06 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(09-06-2021 12:51 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  
(09-05-2021 09:32 PM)Pan95 Wrote:  
(09-05-2021 10:58 AM)franklyconfused Wrote:  
(09-05-2021 09:57 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I remember seeing Green’s QBR at some point around halftime. It was around 145 and way ahead of McC’s. Clearly the last INT’s as we were desperately trying to catch up hurt us. But I think the worst thing we say - and it certainly is a bad thing to say about a QB - is that he did not respond well to pressure.

There must be a reason the ball was in Green’s hands when we were trying to salvage the game. Some alternatives come to mind.

1. Bloom is just stupid.
2. McC is not ready, for some reason
1+2. Bloom has a development schedule for Luke.

Until we have tried Luke under pressure, we don’t have a good comparison.

I've never done this before, so correct me if I'm wrong. I just calculated both QBs' QBRs at end of each drive by this formula I found for NCAA:

(8.4*Yards + 330*TDs + 100*Comp. - 200*Int.) / Attempts

I got that Green's first-half peak was 130.4 when he was 4 or 5 for 30 yards. At halftime, he was 92.0 at 5 of 10 for 50 yards. His peak for the game was 149.8 after his TD pass to give us the 17-7 lead. He started the second half 4 of 5 for 71 yards and a score, and it was downhill from there. The rest of his second half was 3 of 9 for 31 yards and three interceptions, bringing his QBR back to 92.0.

McCaffrey was only given 3 passes in the first half, 1 of 3 for 10 yards. He got the drive right after Green's TD pass and went 3 of 4 for 50, not too far off Green's pace the drive before, but then the run game stalled the drive and Bloom inexplicably swapped in Green for the failed 4th down hand-off. At that point, Green's QBR was 149.8 and McCaffrey's was 129.1. Bloom went back to Green for the next four disastrous drives. McCaffrey's garbage time final minute brought him down to a 113.0, if you think he played enough for meaningful stats.

For giggles, I ran the NFL formula, too, and it's even less friendly to Wiley. Peak of 107.9 after the passing TD; finish of 31.9 (worse than going 0 of 0).


FYI, Green replaced McCaffrey on that 4th down play because McCaffrey had his helmet knocked off. That also happened to him earlier in the game.

Man, the Owls need to invest in some decent chin straps. If one of us donates some $ for chin straps, and maybe some super glue, do we get naming rights?

The Tomball Owl chin straps?

I was thinking Comal County Chin Straps, but either works. CCC Straps for short.
(This post was last modified: 09-06-2021 02:06 PM by Tomball Owl.)
09-06-2021 02:05 PM
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