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The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
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shizzle787 Offline
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The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
With the news that BYU has become a serious front-runner, and the fact that there will be serious discussion regarding Houston (whether pro or against in the Big 12 circles-think other Texas schools), I now think the Big 12 will expand by 4.

I believe they will add 4 schools: BYU, Cincy, Houston, and UCF (who gets the last spot over Memphis).

Big 12:
East: WVU, Cincy, UCF, Iowa State, Houston, Baylor
West: BYU, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech

This raiding of the AAC will lead to the MW becoming the de-facto #6 conference. The MW will want to eliminate any chance the AAC has of usurping the former, so they will poach two schools: SMU and Memphis.
It will be a geographic stretch for Memphis but better than remaining in the
AAC (especially basketball-wise).

As an aside, Gonzaga sees the writing on the wall in the WCC and inquires to the MW about an Olympic sports membership and beats Wichita to the punch. This leaves the MW with 14 football and 14 Olympic sports members.

MW:
Mountain: Memphis, SMU, Air Force, Colorado State, Boise State, New Mexico, Wyoming
West: Utah State, Fresno State, San Jose State, Nevada, San Diego State,
UNLV, Hawaii

With the Texas schools gone, Navy contemplates leaving the AAC but comes up with a plan: get back into Texas and get Army on board to free up a non-conference slot. Army did not enjoy its previous stint in a conference because they were in over their head. This time around, it will be a good fit. The AAC adds four schools to get to 10: Army, Rice, UTEP, and UAB. The conference stays with 9 in basketball and goes to a 16-game schedule, which will allow Temple and Wichita State multiple OOC opportunities.

AAC:
West: Navy, Army, Rice, UTEP, Tulsa
East: UAB, ECU, Tulane, Temple, USF

At this point, C-USA is left with 11 schools. I'm torn as to whether they would stay at 11 or expand by one school to get to 12. Ultimately, I think they would succeed in adding Appalachian State.

C-USA:
West: WKU, MTSU, LaTech, North Texas, Southern Miss, UTSA
East: App State, Charlotte, ODU, Marshall, FIU, FAU

The Sun Belt at this point is down to 9 schools. I don't believe Liberty, UMass, or UConn would be interested. I also don't think the conference will want to call up an FCS team (perception-wise this is a bad look). Ultimately, they add New Mexico State to get to 10.

Sun Belt:
West: New Mexico State, Texas State, Louisiana, UL Monroe, Ark State
East: South Alabama, CCU, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, Troy

The MAC remains unchanged.

The remaining independents are Notre Dame, UConn, UMass, and Liberty.

Under this scenario, the basketball power conferences are:
SEC, ACC, B1G, Pac-12, Big East, Big 12

The top mid majors are:
MW, A-10

The next rung of mid-majors are:
MVC, AAC, WCC
09-01-2021 07:41 PM
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Claw Offline
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RE: The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
No way in hell Memphis goes to the Mountain West.
09-01-2021 07:54 PM
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Milwaukee Offline
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RE: The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
(09-01-2021 07:41 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  With the news that BYU has become a serious front-runner, and the fact that there will be serious discussion regarding Houston (whether pro or against in the Big 12 circles-think other Texas schools), I now think the Big 12 will expand by 4.

I believe they will add 4 schools: BYU, Cincy, Houston, and UCF (who gets the last spot over Memphis).

The major counter-argument is that the Big 12 could have expanded to 12 members in 2016, but they chose not to, because they didn't want to split their revenue with two more schools.

Their revenue may be cut by up to 50% going forward, making it even less likely that they would want to split their revenue with two more schools, going forward.
09-01-2021 07:57 PM
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HawaiiMongoose Offline
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RE: The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
(09-01-2021 07:54 PM)Claw Wrote:  No way in hell Memphis goes to the Mountain West.

No way in hell the MWC offers, so we’re in agreement.
09-01-2021 08:02 PM
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shizzle787 Offline
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RE: The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
(09-01-2021 07:57 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(09-01-2021 07:41 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  With the news that BYU has become a serious front-runner, and the fact that there will be serious discussion regarding Houston (whether pro or against in the Big 12 circles-think other Texas schools), I now think the Big 12 will expand by 4.

I believe they will add 4 schools: BYU, Cincy, Houston, and UCF (who gets the last spot over Memphis).

The major counter-argument is that the Big 12 could have expanded to 12 members in 2016, but they chose not to, because they didn't want to split their revenue with two more schools.

Their revenue may be cut by up to 50% going forward, making it even less likely that they would want to split their revenue with two more schools, going forward.

This is true. However, OU and TX (who bring in 50% of the revenue) won't be in the conference. It didn't make any sense back then to go to 12 because it would have diluted the product. This time around, BYU arguably would be worth more than every other team in the league so it may make sense to go to 12. Going to 12 also helps get more teams ranked, more teams in the NCAA tournament (if they don't dilute basketball), and better chance at having two really good teams (possibly both undefeated) in a football championship game if they have a 2-division, 8-game setup.
09-01-2021 08:02 PM
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shizzle787 Offline
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RE: The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
(09-01-2021 08:02 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  
(09-01-2021 07:54 PM)Claw Wrote:  No way in hell Memphis goes to the Mountain West.

No way in hell the MWC offers, so we’re in agreement.

You think they would offer SMU and Tulsa?
09-01-2021 08:03 PM
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shizzle787 Offline
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RE: The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
(09-01-2021 07:54 PM)Claw Wrote:  No way in hell Memphis goes to the Mountain West.

You would rather be in a league with Tulsa, Tulane, Temple, ECU, Wichita State, etc. than the Mountain West?
(This post was last modified: 09-01-2021 08:05 PM by shizzle787.)
09-01-2021 08:05 PM
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Native Georgian Offline
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RE: The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
(09-01-2021 07:41 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I believe they will add 4 schools: BYU, Cincy, Houston, and UCF (who gets the last spot over Memphis).
Very plausible, yes. Not a done deal, by any stretch. But plausible.

The rest of your scenario, however, quickly devolves into science-fiction. Memphis/SMU-to-MWC, UTEP-to-AAC, Appalachian-to-CUSA… each element of this is make-believe, and all of it combined is just silly.
09-01-2021 08:16 PM
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Troy_Fan_15 Offline
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RE: The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
Oh my gosh. The Sun Belt isn’t losing App State to CUSA and we aren’t adding NMSU.
09-01-2021 08:19 PM
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MinerInWisconsin Offline
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RE: The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
(09-01-2021 08:19 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  Oh my gosh. The Sun Belt isn’t losing App State to CUSA and we aren’t adding NMSU.

Yeah but.....he said so.... soooo
09-01-2021 08:21 PM
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memphistiger89 Offline
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RE: The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
(09-01-2021 07:54 PM)Claw Wrote:  No way in hell Memphis goes to the Mountain West.

Yeah. That's just dumb.
09-01-2021 08:24 PM
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tigerjamesc Offline
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RE: The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
(09-01-2021 08:05 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(09-01-2021 07:54 PM)Claw Wrote:  No way in hell Memphis goes to the Mountain West.

You would rather be in a league with Tulsa, Tulane, Temple, ECU, Wichita State, etc. than the Mountain West?

I’d don’t think it’s a “rather” type question. Imagine making a few mil/year and having to travel to Boise/the west coast from Memphis…not feasible. Just merge AAC and MW leftovers
(This post was last modified: 09-01-2021 08:31 PM by tigerjamesc.)
09-01-2021 08:31 PM
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HawaiiMongoose Offline
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RE: The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
(09-01-2021 08:03 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(09-01-2021 08:02 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  
(09-01-2021 07:54 PM)Claw Wrote:  No way in hell Memphis goes to the Mountain West.

No way in hell the MWC offers, so we’re in agreement.

You think they would offer SMU and Tulsa?

SMU yes, Tulsa less likely. The MWC has said it would like to expand back into Texas. I think Rice, UTEP or possibly even UTSA would be offered before Tulsa.

But that assumes the MWC doesn’t lose Boise State or any other member to the Big 12. If it does, the MWC probably won’t have the leverage to convince any of the AAC leftovers to join..
09-01-2021 08:45 PM
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goodknightfl Offline
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RE: The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
(09-01-2021 07:57 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(09-01-2021 07:41 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  With the news that BYU has become a serious front-runner, and the fact that there will be serious discussion regarding Houston (whether pro or against in the Big 12 circles-think other Texas schools), I now think the Big 12 will expand by 4.

I believe they will add 4 schools: BYU, Cincy, Houston, and UCF (who gets the last spot over Memphis).

The major counter-argument is that the Big 12 could have expanded to 12 members in 2016, but they chose not to, because they didn't want to split their revenue with two more schools.

Their revenue may be cut by up to 50% going forward, making it even less likely that they would want to split their revenue with two more schools, going forward.

The B12 didn't expand because ESPN paid them more $$ to stand pat. The contract they had at the time required ESPN to pay for the schools. ESPN didn't want to pay for the additions, so they sweetened the existing pot.
09-01-2021 09:02 PM
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Claw Offline
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RE: The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
(09-01-2021 08:05 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(09-01-2021 07:54 PM)Claw Wrote:  No way in hell Memphis goes to the Mountain West.

You would rather be in a league with Tulsa, Tulane, Temple, ECU, Wichita State, etc. than the Mountain West?

West coast football is like kissing your sister.
(This post was last modified: 09-01-2021 09:26 PM by Claw.)
09-01-2021 09:25 PM
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RE: The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
(09-01-2021 07:41 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  With the news that BYU has become a serious front-runner, and the fact that there will be serious discussion regarding Houston (whether pro or against in the Big 12 circles-think other Texas schools), I now think the Big 12 will expand by 4.

I believe they will add 4 schools: BYU, Cincy, Houston, and UCF (who gets the last spot over Memphis).

Big 12:
East: WVU, Cincy, UCF, Iowa State, Houston, Baylor
West: BYU, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech

This raiding of the AAC will lead to the MW becoming the de-facto #6 conference. The MW will want to eliminate any chance the AAC has of usurping the former, so they will poach two schools: SMU and Memphis.
It will be a geographic stretch for Memphis but better than remaining in the
AAC (especially basketball-wise).

As an aside, Gonzaga sees the writing on the wall in the WCC and inquires to the MW about an Olympic sports membership and beats Wichita to the punch. This leaves the MW with 14 football and 14 Olympic sports members.

MW:
Mountain: Memphis, SMU, Air Force, Colorado State, Boise State, New Mexico, Wyoming
West: Utah State, Fresno State, San Jose State, Nevada, San Diego State,
UNLV, Hawaii

With the Texas schools gone, Navy contemplates leaving the AAC but comes up with a plan: get back into Texas and get Army on board to free up a non-conference slot. Army did not enjoy its previous stint in a conference because they were in over their head. This time around, it will be a good fit. The AAC adds four schools to get to 10: Army, Rice, UTEP, and UAB. The conference stays with 9 in basketball and goes to a 16-game schedule, which will allow Temple and Wichita State multiple OOC opportunities.

AAC:
West: Navy, Army, Rice, UTEP, Tulsa
East: UAB, ECU, Tulane, Temple, USF

At this point, C-USA is left with 11 schools. I'm torn as to whether they would stay at 11 or expand by one school to get to 12. Ultimately, I think they would succeed in adding Appalachian State.

C-USA:
West: WKU, MTSU, LaTech, North Texas, Southern Miss, UTSA
East: App State, Charlotte, ODU, Marshall, FIU, FAU

The Sun Belt at this point is down to 9 schools. I don't believe Liberty, UMass, or UConn would be interested. I also don't think the conference will want to call up an FCS team (perception-wise this is a bad look). Ultimately, they add New Mexico State to get to 10.

Sun Belt:
West: New Mexico State, Texas State, Louisiana, UL Monroe, Ark State
East: South Alabama, CCU, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, Troy

The MAC remains unchanged.

The remaining independents are Notre Dame, UConn, UMass, and Liberty.

Under this scenario, the basketball power conferences are:
SEC, ACC, B1G, Pac-12, Big East, Big 12

The top mid majors are:
MW, A-10

The next rung of mid-majors are:
MVC, AAC, WCC

UCONN left the AAC and while football is struggling everything else is fine otherwise in the BE. Let it go, Elsa. Let it go.
09-01-2021 09:52 PM
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RE: The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
(09-01-2021 09:25 PM)Claw Wrote:  
(09-01-2021 08:05 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(09-01-2021 07:54 PM)Claw Wrote:  No way in hell Memphis goes to the Mountain West.

You would rather be in a league with Tulsa, Tulane, Temple, ECU, Wichita State, etc. than the Mountain West?

West coast football is like kissing your sister.

Notably, SMU's travel costs and time would be higher in the MWC.


Distance (air miles):

to Honolulu: 3,800 miles
to Fresno: 1,560 miles
to San Jose: 1,440 miles
to Nevada (Reno): 1,345 miles
to Boise: 1,300 miles
to SDSU: 1,200 miles
to UNLV: 1,055 miles
to Laramie, WY: 750 miles
to CSU: 708 miles
to Air Force: 592 miles
to New Mexico: 570 miles

MWC average: over 1,300 miles, as the crow flies (one-way)


to Temple: 1,300 miles
to Navy: 1,250
to USF: 1,100 miles
to UCF: 985 miles
to Cincy: 940 miles
to ECU: 862 miles
to Memphis: 452 miles
to Tulane: 436 miles
to Tulsa: 238 miles
to Houston: 226 miles

AAC average: less than 800 miles, as the crow flies (one-way)
(This post was last modified: 09-01-2021 10:19 PM by Milwaukee.)
09-01-2021 10:18 PM
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Milwaukee Offline
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RE: The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
(09-01-2021 09:02 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  
(09-01-2021 07:57 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(09-01-2021 07:41 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  With the news that BYU has become a serious front-runner, and the fact that there will be serious discussion regarding Houston (whether pro or against in the Big 12 circles-think other Texas schools), I now think the Big 12 will expand by 4.

I believe they will add 4 schools: BYU, Cincy, Houston, and UCF (who gets the last spot over Memphis).

The major counter-argument is that the Big 12 could have expanded to 12 members in 2016, but they chose not to, because they didn't want to split their revenue with two more schools.

Their revenue may be cut by up to 50% going forward, making it even less likely that they would want to split their revenue with two more schools, going forward.

The B12 didn't expand because ESPN paid them more $$ to stand pat. The contract they had at the time required ESPN to pay for the schools. ESPN didn't want to pay for the additions, so they sweetened the existing pot.

Do you have any evidence stating that ESPN didn't want to pay for the additions, so they "sweetened the existing pot?" That sounds more like a rumor than a fact, and was not widely reported at the time.

Even if they did "sweeten the pot," that doesn't diminish the fact that the Big 12 was reported at the time to be averse to splitting their revenue with two more teams.
(This post was last modified: 09-01-2021 10:26 PM by Milwaukee.)
09-01-2021 10:21 PM
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RE: The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
(09-01-2021 08:05 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(09-01-2021 07:54 PM)Claw Wrote:  No way in hell Memphis goes to the Mountain West.

You would rather be in a league with Tulsa, Tulane, Temple, ECU, Wichita State, etc. than the Mountain West?

If the AAC loses Houston, Cincy and UCF, but not Navy, they’ll add two out of the following to get back to 10 schools: Rice, ODU, Charlotte, UAB, Georgia State, FAU, Marshall and Louisiana. Let’s go with ODU and UAB - you have a 10 team league with Temple, Navy, ODU, ECU, Memphis, UAB, USF, Tulane and Tulsa. Split in divisions, (Temple, ODU, ECU, USF and UAB in the East, Navy, Memphis, Tulane, SMU and Tulsa in the West), play 8 conference games (4 in your division, and 4 of the 5 in the other division), and have room for multiple OOC P5 opponents. CUSA, having shed both an East and a West division school, stands pat at 12. If Navy leaves as well, then add Rice and let CUSA bring on UMass or UConn as a FB-only.
09-01-2021 10:34 PM
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RE: The next dominoes to fall (September addition)
(09-01-2021 10:34 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  
(09-01-2021 08:05 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(09-01-2021 07:54 PM)Claw Wrote:  No way in hell Memphis goes to the Mountain West.

You would rather be in a league with Tulsa, Tulane, Temple, ECU, Wichita State, etc. than the Mountain West?

If the AAC loses Houston, Cincy and UCF, but not Navy, they’ll add two out of the following to get back to 10 schools: Rice, ODU, Charlotte, UAB, Georgia State, FAU, Marshall and Louisiana. Let’s go with ODU and UAB - you have a 10 team league with Temple, Navy, ODU, ECU, Memphis, UAB, USF, Tulane and Tulsa. Split in divisions, (Temple, ODU, ECU, USF and UAB in the East, Navy, Memphis, Tulane, SMU and Tulsa in the West), play 8 conference games (4 in your division, and 4 of the 5 in the other division), and have room for multiple OOC P5 opponents. CUSA, having shed both an East and a West division school, stands pat at 12. If Navy leaves as well, then add Rice and let CUSA bring on UMass or UConn as a FB-only.

The list of schools that AAC would strongly consider probably wouldn't include Charlotte, ODU, or Georgia State, but would include some you haven't listed, such as Appalachian State, Louisiana Tech, and Buffalo (AAU)). Marshall, (#23) Louisiana, and UAB would be among the stronger contenders, since they've had good FB and BB programs.
09-01-2021 10:53 PM
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