(09-01-2021 10:21 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(09-01-2021 09:02 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(09-01-2021 07:57 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(09-01-2021 07:41 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  With the news that BYU has become a serious front-runner, and the fact that there will be serious discussion regarding Houston (whether pro or against in the Big 12 circles-think other Texas schools), I now think the Big 12 will expand by 4.

I believe they will add 4 schools: BYU, Cincy, Houston, and UCF (who gets the last spot over Memphis).

The major counter-argument is that the Big 12 could have expanded to 12 members in 2016, but they chose not to, because they didn't want to split their revenue with two more schools.

Their revenue may be cut by up to 50% going forward, making it even less likely that they would want to split their revenue with two more schools, going forward.

The B12 didn't expand because ESPN paid them more $$ to stand pat. The contract they had at the time required ESPN to pay for the schools. ESPN didn't want to pay for the additions, so they sweetened the existing pot.

Do you have any evidence stating that ESPN didn't want to pay for the additions, so they "sweetened the existing pot?" That sounds more like a rumor than a fact, and was not widely reported at the time.

Even if they did "sweeten the pot," that doesn't diminish the fact that the Big 12 was reported at the time to be averse to splitting their revenue with two more teams.

This was widely reported in at the time.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...-surprise/

https://awfulannouncing.com/2016/report-...xpand.html

(09-01-2021 11:21 PM)VCE Wrote:  

(09-01-2021 10:21 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  ... Do you have any evidence stating that ESPN didn't want to pay for the additions, so they "sweetened the existing pot?" That sounds more like a rumor than a fact, and was not widely reported at the time. ...

This was widely reported in at the time.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...-surprise/

https://awfulannouncing.com/2016/report-...xpand.html

And whether or not it was widely reported, empirically, the sweetening of the pot did, empirically, happen, including a removal of the contract term which put ESPN on the hook for paying pro rata for any any two random additions.

(09-02-2021 12:24 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(09-01-2021 11:21 PM)VCE Wrote:  

(09-01-2021 10:21 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  ... Do you have any evidence stating that ESPN didn't want to pay for the additions, so they "sweetened the existing pot?" That sounds more like a rumor than a fact, and was not widely reported at the time. ...

This was widely reported in at the time.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...-surprise/

https://awfulannouncing.com/2016/report-...xpand.html

And whether or not it was widely reported, empirically, the sweetening of the pot did, empirically, happen, including a removal of the contract term which put ESPN on the hook for paying pro rata for any any two random additions.

Today is a totally different animal. The B12 is likely to be worth 14 mil or less per school, The current AAC is worth 7 mil but lets be honest the 3 the B12 would be taking from AAC are the schools that ESPN is paying for. Just like the L8 got 23 because of OK n TX the bottom of AAC gets 7 because of the top schools.

The TV difference for the L8 with 12 vs 10 is going to be pretty small, if it exist at all. The schedule upgrade for the new comers raise their value.

I think ESPN said that if certain schools leave the AAC under the current contract that contract will be revised as a consequence. Pretty sure that means those schools are valued above the average 7 million paid to each AAC member. UCF, Memphis, Houston, Cincinnati and someone else I think.

(09-01-2021 07:54 PM)Claw Wrote:  No way in hell Memphis goes to the Mountain West.

It sounded reasonable till that point and then continued to get further off the rails.

If the AAC get's hit hard I could see the MWC try to make a grab teams like SMU, Tulsa, Houston if they're left and WSU and they might consider it but Memphis is a reach.

I'll eat my hat if any AAC member pays a 10 million buyout to join the MWC. This isn't meant as an insult to the MWC, but when you think about the value of non-power conference TV deals you are looking at probably a half decade or more to break even financially from that move, and even that would require you to believe the AAC TV deal is getting cut down to like 2 million per team vs the 7 million it is now. Same reason you haven't seen MWC schools showing any real willingness to joining the AAC. Sure the AAC's 7 million a year is more than the roughly 4 million a year the MWC makes (although who knows how that's actually being split with the Boise deal) but when you factor in increased travel costs and buyouts it would take years to end up profiting on the deal if at all.

(09-02-2021 09:35 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  I'll eat my hat if any AAC member pays a 10 million buyout to join the MWC. This isn't meant as an insult to the MWC, but when you think about the value of non-power conference TV deals you are looking at probably a half decade or more to break even financially from that move, and even that would require you to believe the AAC TV deal is getting cut down to like 2 million per team vs the 7 million it is now. Same reason you haven't seen MWC schools showing any real willingness to joining the AAC. Sure the AAC's 7 million a year is more than the roughly 4 million a year the MWC makes (although who knows how that's actually being split with the Boise deal) but when you factor in increased travel costs and buyouts it would take years to end up profiting on the deal if at all.

How is the AAC exit fee set up? Is it a flat fees or based on annual revenues?

(09-02-2021 10:11 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 09:35 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  I'll eat my hat if any AAC member pays a 10 million buyout to join the MWC. This isn't meant as an insult to the MWC, but when you think about the value of non-power conference TV deals you are looking at probably a half decade or more to break even financially from that move, and even that would require you to believe the AAC TV deal is getting cut down to like 2 million per team vs the 7 million it is now. Same reason you haven't seen MWC schools showing any real willingness to joining the AAC. Sure the AAC's 7 million a year is more than the roughly 4 million a year the MWC makes (although who knows how that's actually being split with the Boise deal) but when you factor in increased travel costs and buyouts it would take years to end up profiting on the deal if at all.

How is the AAC exit fee set up? Is it a flat fees or based on annual revenues?

Flat fee + damages if less than 27 months notice.

(09-02-2021 10:11 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 09:35 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  I'll eat my hat if any AAC member pays a 10 million buyout to join the MWC. This isn't meant as an insult to the MWC, but when you think about the value of non-power conference TV deals you are looking at probably a half decade or more to break even financially from that move, and even that would require you to believe the AAC TV deal is getting cut down to like 2 million per team vs the 7 million it is now. Same reason you haven't seen MWC schools showing any real willingness to joining the AAC. Sure the AAC's 7 million a year is more than the roughly 4 million a year the MWC makes (although who knows how that's actually being split with the Boise deal) but when you factor in increased travel costs and buyouts it would take years to end up profiting on the deal if at all.

How is the AAC exit fee set up? Is it a flat fees or based on annual revenues?

It's a flat fee of 10 million with 27 months notice. UCONN had to pay I believe 17 million to leave earlier than that.

(09-01-2021 07:41 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  With the news that BYU has become a serious front-runner, and the fact that there will be serious discussion regarding Houston (whether pro or against in the Big 12 circles-think other Texas schools), I now think the Big 12 will expand by 4.

I believe they will add 4 schools: BYU, Cincy, Houston, and UCF (who gets the last spot over Memphis).

Big 12:
East: WVU, Cincy, UCF, Iowa State, Houston, Baylor
West: BYU, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech

This raiding of the AAC will lead to the MW becoming the de-facto #6 conference. The MW will want to eliminate any chance the AAC has of usurping the former, so they will poach two schools: SMU and Memphis.
It will be a geographic stretch for Memphis but better than remaining in the
AAC (especially basketball-wise).

As an aside, Gonzaga sees the writing on the wall in the WCC and inquires to the MW about an Olympic sports membership and beats Wichita to the punch. This leaves the MW with 14 football and 14 Olympic sports members.

MW:
Mountain: Memphis, SMU, Air Force, Colorado State, Boise State, New Mexico, Wyoming
West: Utah State, Fresno State, San Jose State, Nevada, San Diego State,
UNLV, Hawaii

With the Texas schools gone, Navy contemplates leaving the AAC but comes up with a plan: get back into Texas and get Army on board to free up a non-conference slot. Army did not enjoy its previous stint in a conference because they were in over their head. This time around, it will be a good fit. The AAC adds four schools to get to 10: Army, Rice, UTEP, and UAB. The conference stays with 9 in basketball and goes to a 16-game schedule, which will allow Temple and Wichita State multiple OOC opportunities.

AAC:
West: Navy, Army, Rice, UTEP, Tulsa
East: UAB, ECU, Tulane, Temple, USF

At this point, C-USA is left with 11 schools. I'm torn as to whether they would stay at 11 or expand by one school to get to 12. Ultimately, I think they would succeed in adding Appalachian State.

C-USA:
West: WKU, MTSU, LaTech, North Texas, Southern Miss, UTSA
East: App State, Charlotte, ODU, Marshall, FIU, FAU

The Sun Belt at this point is down to 9 schools. I don't believe Liberty, UMass, or UConn would be interested. I also don't think the conference will want to call up an FCS team (perception-wise this is a bad look). Ultimately, they add New Mexico State to get to 10.

Sun Belt:
West: New Mexico State, Texas State, Louisiana, UL Monroe, Ark State
East: South Alabama, CCU, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, Troy

The MAC remains unchanged.

The remaining independents are Notre Dame, UConn, UMass, and Liberty.

Under this scenario, the basketball power conferences are:
SEC, ACC, B1G, Pac-12, Big East, Big 12

The top mid majors are:
MW, A-10

The next rung of mid-majors are:
MVC, AAC, WCC

I believe you mean with the speculation that BYU is a front runner for a spot in the B12. There is nothing that qualifies as "news" on this front.

I also take exception to the statement that BYU would be worth more than any existing B12 member. They would be worth more as a P5 conference member than they currently do as an independent, and might not dilute per team payouts if they were to join. But let's not go overboard.

(09-02-2021 10:21 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 10:11 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 09:35 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  I'll eat my hat if any AAC member pays a 10 million buyout to join the MWC. This isn't meant as an insult to the MWC, but when you think about the value of non-power conference TV deals you are looking at probably a half decade or more to break even financially from that move, and even that would require you to believe the AAC TV deal is getting cut down to like 2 million per team vs the 7 million it is now. Same reason you haven't seen MWC schools showing any real willingness to joining the AAC. Sure the AAC's 7 million a year is more than the roughly 4 million a year the MWC makes (although who knows how that's actually being split with the Boise deal) but when you factor in increased travel costs and buyouts it would take years to end up profiting on the deal if at all.

How is the AAC exit fee set up? Is it a flat fees or based on annual revenues?

It's a flat fee of 10 million with 27 months notice. UCONN had to pay I believe 17 million to leave earlier than that.

Ooof. Then yeah I agree with you on that.

(09-01-2021 10:53 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(09-01-2021 10:34 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  

(09-01-2021 08:05 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(09-01-2021 07:54 PM)Claw Wrote:  No way in hell Memphis goes to the Mountain West.

You would rather be in a league with Tulsa, Tulane, Temple, ECU, Wichita State, etc. than the Mountain West?

If the AAC loses Houston, Cincy and UCF, but not Navy, they’ll add two out of the following to get back to 10 schools: Rice, ODU, Charlotte, UAB, Georgia State, FAU, Marshall and Louisiana. Let’s go with ODU and UAB - you have a 10 team league with Temple, Navy, ODU, ECU, Memphis, UAB, USF, Tulane and Tulsa. Split in divisions, (Temple, ODU, ECU, USF and UAB in the East, Navy, Memphis, Tulane, SMU and Tulsa in the West), play 8 conference games (4 in your division, and 4 of the 5 in the other division), and have room for multiple OOC P5 opponents. CUSA, having shed both an East and a West division school, stands pat at 12. If Navy leaves as well, then add Rice and let CUSA bring on UMass or UConn as a FB-only.

The list of schools that AAC would strongly consider probably wouldn't include Charlotte, ODU, or Georgia State, but would include some you haven't listed, such as Appalachian State, Louisiana Tech, and Buffalo (AAU)). Marshall, (#23) Louisiana, and UAB would be among the stronger contenders, since they've had good FB and BB programs.

LOL

You better do research

(09-02-2021 09:35 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  I'll eat my hat if any AAC member pays a 10 million buyout to join the MWC. This isn't meant as an insult to the MWC, but when you think about the value of non-power conference TV deals you are looking at probably a half decade or more to break even financially from that move, and even that would require you to believe the AAC TV deal is getting cut down to like 2 million per team vs the 7 million it is now. Same reason you haven't seen MWC schools showing any real willingness to joining the AAC. Sure the AAC's 7 million a year is more than the roughly 4 million a year the MWC makes (although who knows how that's actually being split with the Boise deal) but when you factor in increased travel costs and buyouts it would take years to end up profiting on the deal if at all.

You are right as the exit fees are starting to become enough of a detriment to prevent anyone from leaving. If the AAC would vote to dissolve that is another story and could save everyone their exit fee minus UH/UC/UCF.