We just follow the established pecking order. CUSA teams to AAC, then Sunbelt teams to CUSA.

(09-01-2021 09:14 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  We just follow the established pecking order. CUSA teams to AAC, then Sunbelt teams to CUSA.

You will no longer see Sun Belt to CUSA. That's a thing of the past.

(08-31-2021 07:21 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 06:45 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  App St, Marshall, Rice and Army!

Just throwing names out.

Ive said this before---if they lose 4--especially if Navy then bails as well---the AAC will have a decision to make.

SMU
Temple
Tulane
Temple
ECU
Houston or USF
Tulsa ?????

I could see that group completely changing gears and becoming an academics based conference. Add Rice, Buffalo, and UAB. See if Navy still wants to leave. They may like that high end private school West Division. If they do---your done at 10 schools. Then talk to Army and AF---they may be interested as well. If so---you now have a very unique identity that probably would get a decent TV deal.

As a reminder, Tulsa, SMU, Rice, and Navy met in Washington, DC some years ago to discuss forming a conference following the WAC-16 Denver Airport Meeting. The Patriot League eventually emerged from that meeting and I would categorize the Patriot Conference which includes both Navy and Army as another eastern "academic" conference.

The TV deal won't have enough value for ESPN to decide additions. The presidents will take over and go academic.

The other end of the ESPN sword is that the lower the payout is, the less control ESPN has over the conference. If you're paying peanuts, then why should my conference care if you pay 300k less?

(08-31-2021 10:36 PM)Econcoog Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 08:33 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 07:21 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 06:45 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  App St, Marshall, Rice and Army!

Just throwing names out.

Ive said this before---if they lose 4--especially if Navy then bails as well---the AAC will have a decision to make.

SMU
Temple
Tulane
ECU
Houston or USF

SMU-Mountain West
Temple: UConn-styled independent
Tulane: CUSA
ECU: UConn-styled independent
Houston or USF: Mountain West

I agree.

If UH, Memphis and SMU are left behind I think they should go to the MTW and form a nice core with BSU, San Diego St and Air Force.

They might well do something like that---but I doubt they would do it immediately. It would cost 10 million to exit 27 months later and there would be MW entry fees. My guess is Houston would hang out in the tattered remains of whatever the AAC becomes post raid, soaking up the exit fees, and waiting to see how things pan out over the next few years leading up to 2025.

Once we reach 2025---after all the P5 TV deals are redone---the Houston leadership will know FOR SURE that the P5 musical chairs is over and there will be no more opportunities for a while to go to a P5 or refill the B12 (if it got poached). Houston would also have 3 or 4 years to see if the AAC wreckage can develop into a decent competitor or if the MW is simply too dominant vs an AAC with too many replacement pieces that just aren't panning out.

Some thoughts on Navy going independent.
The original poster had it as a question; it seems like every subsequent poster took Navy independence as an assumption - that assumption is flawed.

Navy absolutely COULD go independent.
Navy didn't sign up for the Big East in 2012 because of a lack of success as an independent. In some ways, the environment today is better for an independent than it was a decade ago.

So Navy could go independent IF the AAC got TOTALLY blown up. Honestly, I don't know that losing 4 teams would hit that threshhold. 5 or 6 teams leaving, sure, but if there is a core or 7 AAC teams to whom we've committed for a decade, that might be enough to stick with.
Navy would definitely NOT be interested in a smaller, regionalized conference. The expanded coast to coast Big East (SDSU, Boise, TCU) that we signed on to in 2012 fit our national program and our national stature - going smaller and regional is counter to Navy's interests. A rebuilt AAC that still had a broader footprint would still be in Navy's interests.

Timelines factor in. I'm impressed with what UConn AD Benedict did to build schedules on SHORT timelines. But if things move fast, like less than five years lead time, it's a lot harder to get teams to schedule Navy than to schedule a UConn automatic win.

Bowl tie-ins factor in. In the AAC, Navy has gotten bowl bids and wins against three contract-bowl-conference teams; Army's independent outlook is Independence Bowl or "pool"...I prefer our AAC options.

But the biggest point comes down to "know your why" When Navy joined the BigEast, we had bowls arranged five years out but the next bowl arrangements were a big question; scheduling was getting harder. But the strategic reason Navy is in the AAC today was to be in the right place to remain relevant at the highest level of college football. We signed on to a BCS-auto-qual conference. That rug got pulled out and Navy has been all-in on the AAC P6. That effort looked great when a 6+6 playoff seemed imminent.

There are several worst-case scenarios for the AAC as a conference. But staying in a "weak 6th" AAC -- rather than the P6 AAC we helped build -- may still be better than being the best of an increasingly irrelevant group of independents.

Don't assume that Navy will go independent instead of remaining with the #6 conference.

(09-01-2021 11:48 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Some thoughts on Navy going independent.
The original poster had it as a question; it seems like every subsequent poster took Navy independence as an assumption - that assumption is flawed.

Navy absolutely COULD go independent.
Navy didn't sign up for the Big East in 2012 because of a lack of success as an independent. In some ways, the environment today is better for an independent than it was a decade ago.

So Navy could go independent IF the AAC got TOTALLY blown up. Honestly, I don't know that losing 4 teams would hit that threshhold. 5 or 6 teams leaving, sure, but if there is a core or 7 AAC teams to whom we've committed for a decade, that might be enough to stick with.
Navy would definitely NOT be interested in a smaller, regionalized conference. The expanded coast to coast Big East (SDSU, Boise, TCU) that we signed on to in 2012 fit our national program and our national stature - going smaller and regional is counter to Navy's interests. A rebuilt AAC that still had a broader footprint would still be in Navy's interests.

Timelines factor in. I'm impressed with what UConn AD Benedict did to build schedules on SHORT timelines. But if things move fast, like less than five years lead time, it's a lot harder to get teams to schedule Navy than to schedule a UConn automatic win.

Bowl tie-ins factor in. In the AAC, Navy has gotten bowl bids and wins against three contract-bowl-conference teams; Army's independent outlook is Independence Bowl or "pool"...I prefer our AAC options.

But the biggest point comes down to "know your why" When Navy joined the BigEast, we had bowls arranged five years out but the next bowl arrangements were a big question; scheduling was getting harder. But the strategic reason Navy is in the AAC today was to be in the right place to remain relevant at the highest level of college football. We signed on to a BCS-auto-qual conference. That rug got pulled out and Navy has been all-in on the AAC P6. That effort looked great when a 6+6 playoff seemed imminent.

There are several worst-case scenarios for the AAC as a conference. But staying in a "weak 6th" AAC -- rather than the P6 AAC we helped build -- may still be better than being the best of an increasingly irrelevant group of independents.

Don't assume that Navy will go independent instead of remaining with the #6 conference.

Thats interesting. Navys been all in on the AAC so far---but I was honestly unsure of how they would react to big round of poaching---especially given that the same menu of replacement options the AAC membership has shunned up to now would still be the only choices on the buffet table.

(09-01-2021 11:48 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  There are several worst-case scenarios for the AAC as a conference. But staying in a "weak 6th" AAC -- rather than the P6 AAC we helped build -- may still be better than being the best of an increasingly irrelevant group of independents. ...

Also note that even if there are four AAC schools taken, it would either be four in 2025 or else two earlier (if OK/TX leave earlier) and two in 2025 ...

... and by 2025, it will be much clearer under what form the CFP12 will be going ahead. The AAC may well be the best positioning available for Navy under the CFP12 system, even if it is not the position they would point to as their ideal.

(09-02-2021 12:29 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(09-01-2021 11:48 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  There are several worst-case scenarios for the AAC as a conference. But staying in a "weak 6th" AAC -- rather than the P6 AAC we helped build -- may still be better than being the best of an increasingly irrelevant group of independents. ...

Also note that even if there are four AAC schools taken, it would either be four in 2025 or else two earlier (if OK/TX leave earlier) and two in 2025 ...

... and by 2025, it will be much clearer under what form the CFP12 will be going ahead. The AAC may well be the best positioning available for Navy under the CFP12 system, even if it is not the position they would point to as their ideal.

True.

OK/TX might not play in the SEC much earlier than 2024. If they do, the Big 8 might add BYU only, or BYU and one AAC (eg Cincy) before 2025.

They could add two more schools for their 2025 TV deal, for a total of three AAC schools. The idea of adding 4 AACs, plus BYU (5 total) seems unlikely. In fact, the "Big 8" might decide not to expand beyond 10 schools, like they did in 2016.

AAC's best case scenario: "Big 8" adds BYU + 1 MWC and stays put at 10 schools.

AAC remains intact.

Second best case scenario: "Big 8" just adds BYU and one AAC team (e.g., Cincy).

AAC replaces Cincy with App. State & Dayton, and UConn with Marshall.

UCF - great FB program, respectable BB
Memphis - great BB program, very good FB
Houston - great BB program, good FB
Navy/WSU - good FB program, great BB
App. St./Dayton (replacing Cincy) - great FB program, very good BB
SMU - good FB & BB programs
Marshall (replacing UConn) - good FB & BB programs
Tulsa - solid FB & BB programs
Tulane - respectable FB program
Temple - rebuilding
USF - rebuilding
ECU - rebuilding

Indeed, if the AAC is only raided for UC, there may not be a compelling reason to expand back to 12.

(08-31-2021 06:33 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 06:26 PM)jaybird44 Wrote:  What if big 12 takes ucf,cincinnati,houston,and Memphis? Does Navy leave? Does AAC die? Does AAC grab some other schools? My favorite,they always say,do they stay at 7? LOL. What are your thoughts? Does AAC stretch from coast to coast and ventures into Asia? Of for once AAC becomes realistic and understands that they are not a power conference? Who do you think they pursue?

The AAC wont die. It will definitely becomes something very different---it may even become completely unrecognizable. The most likely option remains the raiding of the top of the SB/CUSA in an attempt to remain the top G5 conference. Or--you could even see something very unexpected---like cooperating with elements within SB/CUSA so that the cooperating teams create 3 geographically coherent regional conferences using the existing shells of the AAC, SB, and CUSA.

I would almost agree with this. I agree the AAC would then raid the best four CUSA/SBC teams it could to backfill. But the result would be a tight contest with the MW to be the second best G6 team. Because IMO, the L8 plus what the OP calls the AAC "big four" will not be a P-league.

(09-02-2021 08:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 06:33 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 06:26 PM)jaybird44 Wrote:  What if big 12 takes ucf,cincinnati,houston,and Memphis? Does Navy leave? Does AAC die? Does AAC grab some other schools? My favorite,they always say,do they stay at 7? LOL. What are your thoughts? Does AAC stretch from coast to coast and ventures into Asia? Of for once AAC becomes realistic and understands that they are not a power conference? Who do you think they pursue?

The AAC wont die. It will definitely becomes something very different---it may even become completely unrecognizable. The most likely option remains the raiding of the top of the SB/CUSA in an attempt to remain the top G5 conference. Or--you could even see something very unexpected---like cooperating with elements within SB/CUSA so that the cooperating teams create 3 geographically coherent regional conferences using the existing shells of the AAC, SB, and CUSA.

I would almost agree with this. I agree the AAC would then raid the best four CUSA/SBC teams it could to backfill. But the result would be a tight contest with the MW to be the second best G6 team. Because IMO, the L8 plus what the OP calls the AAC "big four" will not be a P-league.

The R8 with big four AAC WILL be a power league in hoops. And that is an important distinction to make, Quo (particularly for Memphis and Cincinnati).

Navy has some real pros and cons to weigh if the AAC loses 3-4 of their best programs:

Pros for staying AAC:
continued games with privates like Tulsa, Tulane, and SMU
access to the 6-6 playoff in the 6 or 7th best conference
no need to scramble to fill an Indy schedule

Pros for going Indy:
ability to schedule nationally (including west coast)
more money and greater visibility in their media deal


I think Navy would have a much easier time scheduling as an independent than UMass, UConn, NMSU, and Liberty did, particularly with all those Indy programs looking to fill November dates.

Honestly, I won’t be surprised either way.

(09-02-2021 08:20 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 08:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 06:33 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 06:26 PM)jaybird44 Wrote:  What if big 12 takes ucf,cincinnati,houston,and Memphis? Does Navy leave? Does AAC die? Does AAC grab some other schools? My favorite,they always say,do they stay at 7? LOL. What are your thoughts? Does AAC stretch from coast to coast and ventures into Asia? Of for once AAC becomes realistic and understands that they are not a power conference? Who do you think they pursue?

The AAC wont die. It will definitely becomes something very different---it may even become completely unrecognizable. The most likely option remains the raiding of the top of the SB/CUSA in an attempt to remain the top G5 conference. Or--you could even see something very unexpected---like cooperating with elements within SB/CUSA so that the cooperating teams create 3 geographically coherent regional conferences using the existing shells of the AAC, SB, and CUSA.

I would almost agree with this. I agree the AAC would then raid the best four CUSA/SBC teams it could to backfill. But the result would be a tight contest with the MW to be the second best G6 team. Because IMO, the L8 plus what the OP calls the AAC "big four" will not be a P-league.

The R8 with big four AAC WILL be a power league in hoops. And that is an important distinction to make, Quo (particularly for Memphis and Cincinnati).

No question. Heck, I would say the L8 is a "power league" in hoops right now. I bet if we ran the RPI and NET numbers for those eight schools they would be at least as good as the Big East is, and everyone recognizes the Big East as an elite-level league. Adding those four AAC schools would put it in contention with the B1G and ACC as the very best hoops league.

Still, I think "power" is a term that is reserved for football, and so that's how I was using it.

(09-02-2021 09:20 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Navy has some real pros and cons to weigh if the AAC loses 3-4 of their best programs:

Pros for staying AAC:
continued games with privates like Tulsa, Tulane, and SMU
access to the 6-6 playoff in the 6 or 7th best conference
no need to scramble to fill an Indy schedule

Pros for going Indy:
ability to schedule nationally (including west coast)
more money and greater visibility in their media deal


I think Navy would have a much easier time scheduling as an independent than UMass, UConn, NMSU, and Liberty did, particularly with all those Indy programs looking to fill November dates.

Honestly, I won’t be surprised either way.

Navy can always go Indy successfully. They will just reevaluate if the AAC makeup changes, along the lines you suggest. The AAC, even with those schools removed, still does provide scheduling stability and a pretty wide geographic range, including Texas and Florida, so I think they might lean towards staying.

(08-31-2021 08:33 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 07:21 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 06:45 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  App St, Marshall, Rice and Army!

Just throwing names out.

Ive said this before---if they lose 4--especially if Navy then bails as well---the AAC will have a decision to make.

SMU
Temple
Tulane
ECU
Houston or USF

SMU-Mountain West
Temple: UConn-styled independent
Tulane: CUSA
ECU: UConn-styled independent
Houston or USF: Mountain West

Why exactly would Temple, Tulane, and ECU in this scenario willingly forgo like 80 million in exit fees to go do options that are terrible? The "UCONN styled independent" works for them because they got in the best non-football conference in the country and they don't really care too much if their football program lives or dies. Temple could probably get back in the A10, but ECU's non-football options would be pretty terrible, maybe the CAA in a best case scenario. Those 2 would also then have zero bowl tie ins, zero money from the CFP system, and massive scheduling issues. As for Tulane C-USA's TV deal pays actually close to zero.