It says, "are expected to be".

Makes sense

Of course I also suspect SMU is definitely out and UH possibly out due to the Texas schools and OSU not wanting recruiting competition/elevating a potential competitor for a future PAC slot

I think BYU, UCF and Cincinnati are easy slam dunk choices

#4 is the real question mark but given the likely geography it will be one of the western team candidates such as Boise State

SMU is the surprise to many. Frankly, I am not surprised. Didn’t expect them to be ahead of USF and CSU, but this tells me they are considering sticking to their roots. The fact that USF isn’t even listed hurts UCF more than in helps IMO. Fla is not a priority. UCF is just a mercenary school in a new frontier, and the cultural fit stops there.

(08-30-2021 06:46 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 05:51 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  SMU is a great school - not sure what it brings to the B12 that TCU doesn't already provide.

Yes, SMU has underperformed for 35 years. In its heyday, it was a major program. But by that standard, what does UCLA provide that USC doesn't?

This also begs the question, what does UCF have that USF doesn't?

Apples and Oranges. UCLA is a huge top 20 University is one of the main media markets in the world.

SMU and TCU are both small privates in one metro area.


More valid is the UxF comparison, but still dealing with two different media markets

I am still not convinced they will invite Boise. It has nothing to do with their school or programs. Their football program is deserving. It is 100% with location. It is one thing to have BYU with Salt Lake City to fly into, but Boise is another 400 miles past them. Just see that causing stress to schools. Sounds fun until you start thinking about details.

And do you really add Boise when you could add Memphis (similar football over last 7 years) or Houston. Both Memphis and Houston bring better basketball programs too.

I am assuming Cincy and UCF are in. If BYU is a go and they are only adding 12 I think it will come down to Houston/Memphis. If something happens and BYU doesn't come...then UCF, Cincy, Memphis, Houston.

(08-30-2021 07:32 PM)TigerPete Wrote:  I am still not convinced they will invite Boise. It has nothing to do with their school or programs. Their football program is deserving. It is 100% with location. It is one thing to have BYU with Salt Lake City to fly into, but Boise is another 400 miles past them. Just see that causing stress to schools. Sounds fun until you start thinking about details.

And do you really add Boise when you could add Memphis (similar football over last 7 years) or Houston. Both Memphis and Houston bring better basketball programs too.

I am assuming Cincy and UCF are in. If BYU is a go and they are only adding 12 I think it will come down to Houston/Memphis. If something happens and BYU doesn't come...then UCF, Cincy, Memphis, Houston.

I agree, but it’s going to be a pressure packed year for Memphis, Penny and the football program in total. They are the last ones in from that group, assuming BYU opts out.

SMU came roaring out of the NIL gate.

I don't think any of the analysis I've seen on expansion is weighting the impact of the NIL money.

(08-30-2021 06:37 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  It *shouldnt* be BYU first.

If the B12 only takes 2, which I believe would be a mistake, they need the two best football programs they can get their hands on, that also doesnt destroy the travel budget.

That leads to Cinci and Memphis.

I still believe they need to go to +4 sooner rather than later, in order to ensure their conference computer rankings keep them above the pac and or ACC before the next round of negotiations.

The last thing they need to do is to add 2 in Boise and BYU, because they could be ranked behind the AAC. (In fact, its almost guaranteed they would)

You are absolutely correct, so of course the Big 12 will do something different. I think they need to look East where the tv viewership and media is. They need to build a bridge to WVU. Also agree they need to add 4. They need 4 new markets to offset losing two powerhouse programs. Cincy Memphis expand the conference footprint. Houston adds great football, basketball and a huge market and is back home in the Big 12. Throw in UCF or USF for a big tv market and Florida recruiting.

(08-30-2021 08:02 PM)Claw Wrote:  SMU came roaring out of the NIL gate.

I don't think any of the analysis I've seen on expansion is weighting the impact of the NIL money.

From the important threads on revenue:

064.) University of Connecticut - $79,100,614
065.) Wake Forest University - $76,520,111
066.) Washington State University - $75,957,792
067.) Brigham Young University-Provo - $72,622,845
068.) Southern Methodist University - $70,501,474
069.) University of Central Florida - $68,359,639
070.) University of Houston - $68,285,574

071.) Temple University - $60,004,621
072.) Colorado State University-Fort Collins - $56,081,379
073.) University of Memphis - $55,494,325
074.) University of South Florida-Main Campus - $55,103,914
075.) San Diego State University - $54,402,858
076.) University of Cincinnati-Main Campus - $53,555,898
077.) East Carolina University - $50,722,801
078.) Liberty University - $50,593,390
079.) California State University-Fresno - $49,469,530
080.) University of Hawaii at Manoa - $45,745,380

081.) University of Nevada-Las Vegas - $44,245,146
082.) Old Dominion University - $43,996,643
083.) University of Nevada-Reno - $43,436,728
084.) University of Tulsa - $42,986,622
085.) Boise State University - $42,343,886
086.) Rice University - $41,870,484
087.) University of Wyoming - $41,252,831
088.) University of North Texas - $40,758,584
089.) University of Massachusetts-Amherst - $40,000,150
090.) University of New Mexico-Main Campus - $39,982,066

091.) Miami University-Oxford - $38,714,678
092.) Georgia State University - $38,399,503
093.) University of North Carolina at Charlotte - $38,165,424
094.) Tulane University of Louisiana - $37,101,339

(08-30-2021 08:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 08:02 PM)Claw Wrote:  SMU came roaring out of the NIL gate.

I don't think any of the analysis I've seen on expansion is weighting the impact of the NIL money.

From the important threads on revenue:

064.) University of Connecticut - $79,100,614
065.) Wake Forest University - $76,520,111
066.) Washington State University - $75,957,792
067.) Brigham Young University-Provo - $72,622,845
068.) Southern Methodist University - $70,501,474
069.) University of Central Florida - $68,359,639
070.) University of Houston - $68,285,574

071.) Temple University - $60,004,621
072.) Colorado State University-Fort Collins - $56,081,379
073.) University of Memphis - $55,494,325
074.) University of South Florida-Main Campus - $55,103,914
075.) San Diego State University - $54,402,858
076.) University of Cincinnati-Main Campus - $53,555,898
077.) East Carolina University - $50,722,801
078.) Liberty University - $50,593,390
079.) California State University-Fresno - $49,469,530
080.) University of Hawaii at Manoa - $45,745,380

081.) University of Nevada-Las Vegas - $44,245,146
082.) Old Dominion University - $43,996,643
083.) University of Nevada-Reno - $43,436,728
084.) University of Tulsa - $42,986,622
085.) Boise State University - $42,343,886
086.) Rice University - $41,870,484
087.) University of Wyoming - $41,252,831
088.) University of North Texas - $40,758,584
089.) University of Massachusetts-Amherst - $40,000,150
090.) University of New Mexico-Main Campus - $39,982,066

091.) Miami University-Oxford - $38,714,678
092.) Georgia State University - $38,399,503
093.) University of North Carolina at Charlotte - $38,165,424
094.) Tulane University of Louisiana - $37,101,339

NIL money doesn't come from the schools.

(08-30-2021 08:31 PM)Claw Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 08:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 08:02 PM)Claw Wrote:  SMU came roaring out of the NIL gate.

I don't think any of the analysis I've seen on expansion is weighting the impact of the NIL money.

From the important threads on revenue:

064.) University of Connecticut - $79,100,614
065.) Wake Forest University - $76,520,111
066.) Washington State University - $75,957,792
067.) Brigham Young University-Provo - $72,622,845
068.) Southern Methodist University - $70,501,474
069.) University of Central Florida - $68,359,639
070.) University of Houston - $68,285,574

071.) Temple University - $60,004,621
072.) Colorado State University-Fort Collins - $56,081,379
073.) University of Memphis - $55,494,325
074.) University of South Florida-Main Campus - $55,103,914
075.) San Diego State University - $54,402,858
076.) University of Cincinnati-Main Campus - $53,555,898
077.) East Carolina University - $50,722,801
078.) Liberty University - $50,593,390
079.) California State University-Fresno - $49,469,530
080.) University of Hawaii at Manoa - $45,745,380

081.) University of Nevada-Las Vegas - $44,245,146
082.) Old Dominion University - $43,996,643
083.) University of Nevada-Reno - $43,436,728
084.) University of Tulsa - $42,986,622
085.) Boise State University - $42,343,886
086.) Rice University - $41,870,484
087.) University of Wyoming - $41,252,831
088.) University of North Texas - $40,758,584
089.) University of Massachusetts-Amherst - $40,000,150
090.) University of New Mexico-Main Campus - $39,982,066

091.) Miami University-Oxford - $38,714,678
092.) Georgia State University - $38,399,503
093.) University of North Carolina at Charlotte - $38,165,424
094.) Tulane University of Louisiana - $37,101,339

NIL money doesn't come from the schools.

No, but its the same idea. How can the schools support athletics? Clearly Tulane, Rice and Boise are well below the rest and SMU is very high.

Best setup with SMU is:

South: SMU Houston TCU TTech Baylor BYU

North: WVU UC ISU KU KSU OSU

8 conference games means everyone in the North would get a trip to Texas every year, although you can interchange BYU and OSU.

(08-30-2021 07:07 PM)bullet Wrote:  SMU is in there because they have the financial backing.

Boise and Memphis may or may not stay in consideration.

IF UCF is on the list, USF probably is also.

Definitely agree on SMU, where pay to play will be neither an insurmountable hurdle nor an ethical issue

Memphis (take a look at Penny's 2021 basketball signing class) is going to do what it needs to do as well.

Boise's best shot is clearly as a BYU tagalong. If BSU gets an invite, guess that means Bronco fans will be a whole lot more hospitable next time the Cougars run on the blue turf.

As far as inviting UCF but not USF, that would indicate Big "12" leadership has learned very little from WVU's inclusion and the subsequent issues that come from having one school on an island 800-plus miles from the nearest conference opponent. Of course we are talking about a league run by Bob Bowlsby ...

(08-30-2021 07:20 PM)SMUfan Wrote:  It says, "are expected to be".

This can easily mean, "hey, these are not my speculations, this is reporting!!! ... of other people's speculation.

(08-30-2021 08:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 08:02 PM)Claw Wrote:  SMU came roaring out of the NIL gate.

I don't think any of the analysis I've seen on expansion is weighting the impact of the NIL money.

From the important threads on revenue:

064.) University of Connecticut - $79,100,614
065.) Wake Forest University - $76,520,111
066.) Washington State University - $75,957,792
067.) Brigham Young University-Provo - $72,622,845
068.) Southern Methodist University - $70,501,474
069.) University of Central Florida - $68,359,639
070.) University of Houston - $68,285,574

071.) Temple University - $60,004,621
072.) Colorado State University-Fort Collins - $56,081,379
073.) University of Memphis - $55,494,325
074.) University of South Florida-Main Campus - $55,103,914
075.) San Diego State University - $54,402,858
076.) University of Cincinnati-Main Campus - $53,555,898
077.) East Carolina University - $50,722,801
078.) Liberty University - $50,593,390
079.) California State University-Fresno - $49,469,530
080.) University of Hawaii at Manoa - $45,745,380

081.) University of Nevada-Las Vegas - $44,245,146
082.) Old Dominion University - $43,996,643
083.) University of Nevada-Reno - $43,436,728
084.) University of Tulsa - $42,986,622
085.) Boise State University - $42,343,886
086.) Rice University - $41,870,484
087.) University of Wyoming - $41,252,831
088.) University of North Texas - $40,758,584
089.) University of Massachusetts-Amherst - $40,000,150
090.) University of New Mexico-Main Campus - $39,982,066

091.) Miami University-Oxford - $38,714,678
092.) Georgia State University - $38,399,503
093.) University of North Carolina at Charlotte - $38,165,424
094.) Tulane University of Louisiana - $37,101,339

Are those a year or two old, or just different from USA Today? For 2018-19, USA Today (which has data only for public universities) has

Connecticut $80,900,404
Houston $75,049,955
Central Florida $69,121,887
Cincinnati $68,845,672
East Carolina $59,970,346
Memphis $55,815,109
South Florida $55,045,769

Air Force $60,009,782
Colorado State $56,081,379
San Diego State $54,731,404
Nevada-Las Vegas $50,784,275
Boise State $50,599,483
Fresno State $49,772,999
Wyoming $47,046,852
Nevada $43,653,404
Utah State $41,558,060
New Mexico $40,832,286
San Jose State $32,787,377

(08-30-2021 05:31 PM)TigerPete Wrote:  According to Berry Tramel here is the list of candidates. He is very plugged in inside B12 circles.

https://www.oklahoman.com/story/sports/2...647450001/

UCF, BYU, Cincy, Memphis, Boise, SMU, Houston

He doesn’t know the list of candidates. Here’s the actual quote:

Quote:This time around, the top contenders are expected to be BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Boise State, SMU and Memphis.

That isn’t inside information. That’s him speculating.

If it was inside information, he would say “sources indicate the list of candidates are....”

(08-30-2021 06:37 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  It *shouldnt* be BYU first.

If the B12 only takes 2, which I believe would be a mistake, they need the two best football programs they can get their hands on, that also doesnt destroy the travel budget.

That leads to Cinci and Memphis.

I still believe they need to go to +4 sooner rather than later, in order to ensure their conference computer rankings keep them above the pac and or ACC before the next round of negotiations.

The last thing they need to do is to add 2 in Boise and BYU, because they could be ranked behind the AAC. (In fact, its almost guaranteed they would)

Ranked behind in what?

The Longhorn football program has been mediocre for over a decade, but when they announced their departure it visited armageddon upon all of college football.

Brand power is far more important than a decent football team. Squads come and go and their fortunes rise and fall with a variety of circumstances. Brand power is built over generations.

I'm not comparing BYU and Texas, but BYU has far more brand power than any of the other schools the Big 12 can realistically get. That alone makes them #1.

Ratings, my friend, is what TV networks pay for. That's how they make money and BYU has loads of loyal fans. If the Big 12 hasn't learned this lesson yet then they never will.

(08-30-2021 09:17 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I'm not comparing BYU and Texas, but BYU has far more brand power than any of the other schools the Big 12 can realistically get. That alone makes them #1.

Ratings, my friend, is what TV networks pay for. That's how they make money and BYU has loads of loyal fans. If the Big 12 hasn't learned this lesson yet then they never will.

That's why the Big Eight wanted to invite Texas and Texas A&M in the first place ... the central Great Plains just didn't have enough people in the rising age of conference media contracts, and eight schools just didn't provide enough conference inventory.

The Mountain Time Zone is the least populated time zone, and the PAC12 has expanded into its biggest population centers in Arizona and the Front Range, but the regional spread -- and also loyalty -- of the BYU fan base makes it a way to expand past the western boundary of the old Big Eight region with only a single add.

(08-30-2021 08:56 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 08:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 08:02 PM)Claw Wrote:  SMU came roaring out of the NIL gate.

I don't think any of the analysis I've seen on expansion is weighting the impact of the NIL money.

From the important threads on revenue:

064.) University of Connecticut - $79,100,614
065.) Wake Forest University - $76,520,111
066.) Washington State University - $75,957,792
067.) Brigham Young University-Provo - $72,622,845
068.) Southern Methodist University - $70,501,474
069.) University of Central Florida - $68,359,639
070.) University of Houston - $68,285,574

071.) Temple University - $60,004,621
072.) Colorado State University-Fort Collins - $56,081,379
073.) University of Memphis - $55,494,325
074.) University of South Florida-Main Campus - $55,103,914
075.) San Diego State University - $54,402,858
076.) University of Cincinnati-Main Campus - $53,555,898
077.) East Carolina University - $50,722,801
078.) Liberty University - $50,593,390
079.) California State University-Fresno - $49,469,530
080.) University of Hawaii at Manoa - $45,745,380

081.) University of Nevada-Las Vegas - $44,245,146
082.) Old Dominion University - $43,996,643
083.) University of Nevada-Reno - $43,436,728
084.) University of Tulsa - $42,986,622
085.) Boise State University - $42,343,886
086.) Rice University - $41,870,484
087.) University of Wyoming - $41,252,831
088.) University of North Texas - $40,758,584
089.) University of Massachusetts-Amherst - $40,000,150
090.) University of New Mexico-Main Campus - $39,982,066

091.) Miami University-Oxford - $38,714,678
092.) Georgia State University - $38,399,503
093.) University of North Carolina at Charlotte - $38,165,424
094.) Tulane University of Louisiana - $37,101,339

Are those a year or two old, or just different from USA Today? For 2018-19, USA Today (which has data only for public universities) has

Connecticut $80,900,404
Houston $75,049,955
Central Florida $69,121,887
Cincinnati $68,845,672
East Carolina $59,970,346
Memphis $55,815,109
South Florida $55,045,769

Air Force $60,009,782
Colorado State $56,081,379
San Diego State $54,731,404
Nevada-Las Vegas $50,784,275
Boise State $50,599,483
Fresno State $49,772,999
Wyoming $47,046,852
Nevada $43,653,404
Utah State $41,558,060
New Mexico $40,832,286
San Jose State $32,787,377

https://www.csnbbs.com/thread-897220.html
This is 2018-19 and from Equity in Athletics which has everyone.

Colorado St, BYU, Coastal Carolina, Cincinnati, UCF, Memphis, Houston & Georgia St

That brings in four of the top 10 football recruiting states in the nation (Fl, Georgia, Ohio & SC.). And of the teams listed two are presently ranked in the top 25.