Now that we know the Pac, B1G and ACC have formed an alliance shutting the B12 out, we have a clearer path forward.

We know:
1. The big 4 conferences are done for the next decade or so poaching B12 teams.
2. There is zero chance (there wasn't much of one before) that some P5 team would decide there life could be better in the B12 (that ship sailed long ago, but noting it here)
3. The B12 are locked out of most OOC scheduling opportunities with the other 3, meaning they will have to be the SEC's ***** in that department.
4. The B12 are getting a paycut.

So what is the path forward?
1. The B12 needs to up the number of eyeballs available to the media in whatever form - broadcast, streaming, etc.
2. The B12 needs to add recruiting areas - you recruit most effectively in areas you play regularly so kids families can see them play at least once a year (ask Nebraska how that works when you no longer play in your prime recruitment zone)
3. The B12 needs to add inventory - when there are fewer compelling games, you need to find more teams to provide those opportunities, including ensuring access to rivals
4. The B12 needs to establish itself as the clear #5 - meaning they need to diminish the AAC and Mountain West, and ensure neither of those conferences has a legitimate shot at challenging the #5 position
5. The B12 needs to show themselves as aggressors - and establish some excitement about their new look/league.

So how do they do all of that? It doesn't matter how many mouths they have to feed - the pay cut they're getting is gonna hurt whether its $15million or $17million.

THEY NEED TO GROW TO 14 or 16, preferably using the BIG 16 name they own...

Let's start with the obvious...
Cincinatti
Houston
Sign these two major market teams up, like yesterday. Rip the heart out of the AAC. Even if its to start in 2025, get them on the books, don't let the AAC have any hope moving forward. All those TV $ need to come to the B12.

BYU
The only team that moves the needle with regard to national TV. Huge and growing fan base. Salt Lake City is a bigger market than Kansas City now. Without an NFL franchise, they are the defacto NFL team.

UCF
Likewise, if Jayhawk basketball is a substitute for a KC NBA franchise, UCF football is that way for Orlando. Playing in FL is also a destination for recruits and for fans and it opens up new recruiting territory on the SEC and ACC's doorstep. FL is a top state for recruiting football and UCF guarantees some of those players will skip the bench in the SEC to play right away in the B12.

Right now we are at a solid 12 that doesn't replace TX and OU, but provides plenty of new eyeballs, interest and compelling games. I don't think the B12 can afford to stop there.

Valuable add-ons:
USF
Give UCF their rival and a travel partner, guarantee every B12 team gets to FL every year or every other year, cement the B12 in central Florida. Oh, and stick the knife a little deeper into the AAC.

UNLV(!)
With access to the new Vegas stadium, this is almost a no brainer. In the NIL era, the growing Vegas market is going to be huge for UNLV player recruitment. We know they can run with success in basketball - no reason to think they can't do it in football. Provide a fan favorite destination in the B12 - make Vegas, which has a lot of influence, a home to the B12. Also travel partner for BYU out west.

Right there you can do a solid 14 team league -
But it makes sense to add two more:
Memphis - why not, growing and important market should be B12 country
For our final team we have three choices:
SMU - boring but maybe they should be a part of this
Co State - most likely, bridge to BYU and UNLV, B12 level academics and facilities, why not
or if you want to get jinky with it-
San Diego State

Pretty easy to create a pod system with:
WEST - UNLV, BYU, TCU, CO ST/SDSU/SMU
NORTH - KU, KSU, ISU, OSU
SOUTH - TECH, HOUSTON, BAYLOR, MEMPHIS
EAST - CINCI, WV, UCF, USF

This set up
a) kills the AAC and Mountain West
b) is a coast to coast conference with penetration in every other conf recruiting territory
c) rivals # of eyeballs in ACC
d) B12 merchandise and B12 territory is everywhere

I'm guessing this line-up is #3 or higher in basketball every year, and some years will be #4 in football, in a fair 8-12 team national playoff, would place 1-2 teams every year and would continue to compete on the biggest stage. And in the NIL era, the big and growing urban areas of Cent Fl, Houston, Salt Lake City, Vegas elevate those teams to national powers... UCF is gonna be ranked higher than Northwestern from now on and have more fans.

This would be the path forward to make B12 a national conference - different than the model of the B1G or ACC, but a power with no #6 conference as a rival.

(08-26-2021 11:45 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  Now that we know the Pac, B1G and ACC have formed an alliance shutting the B12 out, we have a clearer path forward.

I don't see much value in added schools until the TX and OU situation is settled. If it is truly settled, meaning TX and OU make it clear they are staying until 2025, then there's no need IMO for the L8 to act quickly to add schools.

The same schools you want to add now will be just as available in 2024.

(08-26-2021 11:45 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  Now that we know the Pac, B1G and ACC have formed an alliance shutting the B12 out, we have a clearer path forward.

We know:
1. The big 4 conferences are done for the next decade or so poaching B12 teams.
2. There is zero chance (there wasn't much of one before) that some P5 team would decide there life could be better in the B12 (that ship sailed long ago, but noting it here)
3. The B12 are locked out of most OOC scheduling opportunities with the other 3, meaning they will have to be the SEC's ***** in that department.
4. The B12 are getting a paycut.

We know three of these four things are true.

The Bi12 locked out of most OOC scheduling opportunities with the Alliance is pure speculation, and indeed less likely than it not being locked out.

The "North Star" is for the Alliance conferences to have 8 Conference Games, and 2 Alliance Games.

It is assumed that this means "plus two Go5 / FCS games", but there is no reason to suppose this.

That is a long term vision ... it may, for example, guide a push for the Alliance to deregulate the "top 2" CCG even further, to playing more than half of the schools in the conference, allowing all three to adopt "N rivals + two years on / two years off", with the Big Ten and ACC schools each having 3 rivals and the PAC12 schools each having 5.

But also, it will take until the 30's for the full alliance system to be finalized.

So the first push is toward a single Alliance game, home or away, and then from there to two Alliance games, one home, one away.

In moving toward the system, one thing the PAC12 and Big10 can do in the medium term future with their upcoming contracts is to include, for a price, an 11 game P5 commitment, and no FCS games. That frees up another P5 OOC game for many more schools much more quickly than waiting for existing contracts to complete, as it is P5 contracts that tend to be agreed the furthest ahead.

And, of course, the increment for that commitment would be the de facto payment to the big stadium schools for losing one home game every second year.

Obviously that might not happen, but equally well it might. And if it does, then the evolution will be in place for the Alliance system to be 8 conference games, two Alliance games, one P5 game signed by the school, and one Go5 buy game.

So the notion that the Big12 will be locked out of OOC games with the Alliance conference schools for the foreseeable future is jumping to a conclusion before it is warranted.

------------
Note how the "North Star" system fits well with the schools that have an annual OOC rivalry game ... that is their individually signed P5 game, done.

Now, in here, there is going to be some semantic games played in counting the ACC Notre Dame games FB games as "Alliance" games, even if they are not part of the main "competitiveness matching" Alliance scheduling.

Note that the description of the Alliance has been "41" schools, and obviously the men and women's basketball games / tournaments will be 41 schools, with the ACC having 15 Olympic Sports members ... but counting the ND games as "Alliance OOC" games simplifies the "2 Alliance Games annually" side of it. There just needs to be one more ND game with some other Alliance school annually so that there are either 6 or 8 ND / Alliance School games in the 2 per school system ... since any single school with an odd number of games in the system and the numbers don't work out.

_______________

(08-26-2021 11:52 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I don't see much value in added schools until the TX and OU situation is settled. If it is truly settled, meaning TX and OU make it clear they are staying until 2025, then there's no need IMO for the L8 to act quickly to add schools.

The same schools you want to add now will be just as available in 2024.

Quite. Given the number that may be in the AAC, if TX/OK stay the duration of the GOR, then March 2023 would be a reasonable time frame, so the invited schools can give 27 months notice.

And if TX/OK negotiate a departure in 2023, and the Big12 was wise enough to sign agreements that didn't have a look-in based on specific schools, then adding two until the end of 2025 would make the most sense, whether wanting to go into 2025 with 10 or 12.

Don Williams
@AJ_DonWilliams
· 10h
Kirby Hocutt will play a key role in what comes next for the splintered Big 12. Tech AD is part of a 4-person subcommittee charged with looking at expansion. Big day tomorrow: Big 12 presidents meet. Tech contingent goes to see Gov. Greg Abbott again.

https://www.lubbockonline.com/story/spor...607522001/

I think based on their research from 2016 they already know who they invitees are going to be. The question is will the target schools want to accept? This is not the same BIG12 as in 2016. I do not see the BIG12 adding more that 4 schools.

A few things to Ponder, since the ACC/BIG, PAC...formed the Alliance it appaers this is going to be the last time for awhile to jump to P-5. with BIG12 expansion the 12 team playoffs may happen, but not until after current formatt and hit the open market for CBS/NBC/FOX to bid on with ESPN.

I think once the 4 teams have accepted then the BIG12 will allow TExas and OU to leave under negotiated terms and the new teams will get the exsisting 25M per team until that contract is up. I then see the New BIG12 accepted into the Alliance for voting purposes.

You don't want to play UNLV in that huge new stadium, um, empty stadium.

(08-26-2021 11:52 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 11:45 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  Now that we know the Pac, B1G and ACC have formed an alliance shutting the B12 out, we have a clearer path forward.

I don't see much value in added schools until the TX and OU situation is settled. If it is truly settled, meaning TX and OU make it clear they are staying until 2025, then there's no need IMO for the L8 to act quickly to add schools.

The same schools you want to add now will be just as available in 2024.

Given the ratings halo that TX and OU provide, might there be some benefit in adding schools while TX and OU are still in the Big12? Could it help casual fans associate those programs with power conference teams? If people start seeing AAC teams playing Texas and OU soon, the shift in 2025 may not be as jarring, especially if those teams do well in the Big12 while TX and OU are apart of it.

He didn't even spell Cincinnati correctly in an era where every phone and PC has spell check

(08-27-2021 09:11 AM)thrill_house Wrote:  He didn't even spell Cincinnati correctly in an era where every phone and PC has spell check

Nobody spells it correctly.