Well get ready for another round of conference movements in the next few years. OUT will pay big bucks to leave early. The Big 12 will add teams, and then the other conferences do too.
(08-26-2021 02:17 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote: The key words in this statement are, "at this time", As Many have said including myself, there was never going to be expansion of the PAC in 2021.... In 2024 or when UT and OU leave to the SEC, completely different conversation. Fool's gold if you thought they would consider expansion now
Their new contract comes in summer 2024. So they should have their lineup mostly set by next summer. So I don't think they do unless something comes up during their contract negotiations.
Yes you are correct, all I'm saying is that "IF" they decide to add it won't be until their negotiating their new TV contract. Which as you point out will start prior to 2024, either way there wasn't going to be anything said today
(08-26-2021 02:17 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote: The key words in this statement are, "at this time", As Many have said including myself, there was never going to be expansion of the PAC in 2021.... In 2024 or when UT and OU leave to the SEC, completely different conversation. Fool's gold if you thought they would consider expansion now
Their new contract comes in summer 2024. So they should have their lineup mostly set by next summer. So I don't think they do unless something comes up during their contract negotiations.
Yes you are correct, all I'm saying is that "IF" they decide to add it won't be until their negotiating their new TV contract. Which as you point out will start prior to 2024, either way there wasn't going to be anything said today
No they are not expanding in two years. They talked to the TV consultants when making this decision. The focus is now on putting together the best package possible with the current line up. The alliance may or may not help with that.
(08-26-2021 02:17 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote: The key words in this statement are, "at this time", As Many have said including myself, there was never going to be expansion of the PAC in 2021.... In 2024 or when UT and OU leave to the SEC, completely different conversation. Fool's gold if you thought they would consider expansion now
Their new contract comes in summer 2024. So they should have their lineup mostly set by next summer. So I don't think they do unless something comes up during their contract negotiations.
Yes you are correct, all I'm saying is that "IF" they decide to add it won't be until their negotiating their new TV contract. Which as you point out will start prior to 2024, either way there wasn't going to be anything said today
No they are not expanding in two years. They talked to the TV consultants when making this decision. The focus is now on putting together the best package possible with the current line up. The alliance may or may not help with that.
Bottom line the door is closed firmly.
That's correct.
I don't know why this is so hard for so many people to understand (or they simply want to keep the pot stirring with speculation), but Stanford/Cal/USC/UCLA aren't ever voting to bring in the likes of Texas Tech and Oklahoma State by themselves. The only reason why they considered it in the Pac-16 was because UT and OU were going to come along to make it worth it. They also aren't going to vote in a religious school like Baylor or *especially* BYU. So, unless a school is defecting from the Big Ten, SEC or ACC to the Pac-12 or Notre Dame decides to join them (all of which won't happen), expansion is *truly* over on their part.
(This post was last modified: 08-26-2021 02:58 PM by Frank the Tank.)
(08-26-2021 02:16 PM)Gamecock Wrote: I would guess the next people we hear from is the Big 12, expanding by 2 or 4. Probably later this fall once the timeline on OK and TX is more clear.
This might actually destabilize the conference even more, They should never expand to just expand. If UT and OU were really going to follow though with staying until 2025, do you think they would honor it if the BigXII was to expand now??? I highly doubt it
Good point...I just feel like they'll want to have at least two solid replacements lined up for whenever UT and OU officially leave.
If they work it out for those two to leave starting in say 2023 then my guess is shortly afterwards we'll get word that whoever is coming in will come that same year.
EAST: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Memphis, West Virginia
Central: Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, SMU
Mid-West: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, TCU
West: BYU, Colorado State, Oklahoma State, UNLV
I like that you have UNLV in here. Las Vegas is an important market of the XII considers going west. Texas Tech though would be better suited for a western division than Oklahoma St given the rivalries with the Kansas schools and they are the overall #1 football school of the conference now.
EAST: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Memphis, West Virginia
Central: Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, SMU
Mid-West: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, TCU
West: BYU, Colorado State, Oklahoma State, UNLV
I like that you have UNLV in here. Las Vegas is an important market of the XII considers going west. Texas Tech though would be better suited for a western division than Oklahoma St given the rivalries with the Kansas schools and they are the overall #1 football school of the conference now.
At 16, I think divisions would be better given the wide geographical range.
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Memphis, Oklahoma St, West Virginia
West: Baylor, BYU, Colorado St, Houston, SMU, TCU, Texas Tech, UNLV
(08-26-2021 02:16 PM)Gamecock Wrote: I would guess the next people we hear from is the Big 12, expanding by 2 or 4. Probably later this fall once the timeline on OK and TX is more clear.
This might actually destabilize the conference even more, They should never expand to just expand. If UT and OU were really going to follow though with staying until 2025, do you think they would honor it if the BigXII was to expand now??? I highly doubt it
I don't believe they have a choice in the matter. It's all up to the other 8 now. If Oklahoma and Texas don't want to share a conference with those other schools they need to pay up and leave after this season. The Big XII has nothing to lose because if Kansas or Iowa State leave for the B1G in the future or anyone else you have a healthy conference still.
(This post was last modified: 08-26-2021 03:43 PM by Troy_Fan_15.)
(08-26-2021 02:17 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote: The key words in this statement are, "at this time", As Many have said including myself, there was never going to be expansion of the PAC in 2021.... In 2024 or when UT and OU leave to the SEC, completely different conversation. Fool's gold if you thought they would consider expansion now
Their new contract comes in summer 2024. So they should have their lineup mostly set by next summer. So I don't think they do unless something comes up during their contract negotiations.
Yes you are correct, all I'm saying is that "IF" they decide to add it won't be until their negotiating their new TV contract. Which as you point out will start prior to 2024, either way there wasn't going to be anything said today
No they are not expanding in two years. They talked to the TV consultants when making this decision. The focus is now on putting together the best package possible with the current line up. The alliance may or may not help with that.
Bottom line the door is closed firmly.
That's correct.
I don't know why this is so hard for so many people to understand (or they simply want to keep the pot stirring with speculation), but Stanford/Cal/USC/UCLA aren't ever voting to bring in the likes of Texas Tech and Oklahoma State by themselves. The only reason why they considered it in the Pac-16 was because UT and OU were going to come along to make it worth it. They also aren't going to vote in a religious school like Baylor or *especially* BYU. So, unless a school is defecting from the Big Ten, SEC or ACC to the Pac-12 or Notre Dame decides to join them (all of which won't happen), expansion is *truly* over on their part.
I respectfully disagree with the premise that the door is firmly closed. To be clear The PAC not expanding has always been what I thought would be the ultimate outcome, but to say that there is no chance and it's never going to happen seems awfully presumptuous.
I also agree there will definitely be resistance to certain schools but money changes all of that.
Stugray2, I don't agree that any network has done a comprehensive study on what a couple of additions to the PAC, B1G, or ACC would mean from a valuation stand point. I could be wrong but this seems like a process that won't come up until they are actually in negotiations, which is why my contention has always been we won't know for sure until TV contracts are being discussed. Honestly not trying to stir the pot, it just seems like this is the most logical from a business stand point.
(08-26-2021 02:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote: To the surprise of only a few, the PAC is not expanding.
There is just no value-added in the L8 schools.
And not just for the PAC. For the SEC, B1G and ACC as well.
In a way, that's liberating for those 8 schools, though they will not likely see this as a silver lining. If they now truly will only command something in the $12-14 million range, that means the higher valued schools in the AAC wouldn't dilute per school payouts any further. They could then take enough of those schools to reduce that league to less than its current "tweener" status. At that point they should be lobbying hard for that 12 team CFP.
(08-26-2021 02:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote: To the surprise of only a few, the PAC is not expanding.
There is just no value-added in the L8 schools.
And not just for the PAC. For the SEC, B1G and ACC as well.
In a way, that's liberating for those 8 schools, though they will not likely see this as a silver lining. If they now truly will only command something in the $12-14 million range, that means the higher valued schools in the AAC wouldn't dilute per school payouts any further. They could then take enough of those schools to reduce that league to less than its current "tweener" status. At that point they should be lobbying hard for that 12 team CFP.
The problem the XII has right now is too many holes in the FB schedule to fill as an 8 team conference.
But if they do expand say beyond 10 they begin to have a geography problem at 12 or 14 members. If they go all the way out to 16 or 18 that would lessen travel and perhaps it can be done without reducing the per school value of the conference.
I’ll play devil’s advocate. I don’t think the Big 12 leftovers will sit on their hands now that they know the Pac-12 isn’t coming to rescue any of them. While there probably won’t be wholesale expansion to 12 or 14, I expect the conference to move fairly quickly to add two new members.
The sooner UT’s and OU’s long-term replacements are on board, the sooner they can start adjusting their football budgets, recruiting and performance to Big 12 standards and the less of a drop-off in conference-wide football stature there will be when UT and OU eventually exit. Also there will be gains in the fan followings of each new member as a result of moving to the Big 12 (TCU had an 18% increase in average home football attendance over the three years following its move to the Big 12 compared to the three years prior), and it would be good to already have those increased fan followings in place when negotiations on the next Big 12 TV deal commence.
Based on the above my prediction is that Big 12 invitations will be extended to and accepted by BYU and Cincinnati in the next 60 days.
(This post was last modified: 08-26-2021 04:43 PM by HawaiiMongoose.)
(08-26-2021 02:45 PM)Big Frog II Wrote: Well get ready for another round of conference movements in the next few years. OUT will pay big bucks to leave early. The Big 12 will add teams, and then the other conferences do too.
But where will the Big12-4 rejuvenated be relegated to as far as perception.
(08-26-2021 04:28 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote: I’ll play devil’s advocate. I don’t think the Big 12 leftovers will sit on their hands now that they know the Pac-12 isn’t coming to rescue any of them. While there probably won’t be wholesale expansion to 12 or 14, I expect the conference to move fairly quickly to add two new members.
The sooner UT’s and OU’s long-term replacements are on board, the sooner they can start adjusting their football budgets, recruiting and performance to Big 12 standards and the less of a drop-off in conference-wide football stature there will be when UT and OU eventually exit. Also there will be gains in the fan followings of each new member as a result of moving to the Big 12 (TCU had an 18% increase in average home football attendance over the three years following its move to the Big 12 compared to the three years prior), and it would be good to already have those increased fan followings in place when negotiations on the next Big 12 TV deal commence.
Based on the above my prediction is that Big 12 invitations will be extended to and accepted by BYU and Cincinnati in the next 60 days.
I agree it will happen quickly. However, I think BYU will decline as it will no longer be considered a power league. Houston should be the 2nd team.
(08-26-2021 04:28 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote: Also there will be gains in the fan followings of each new member as a result of moving to the Big 12 (TCU had an 18% increase in average home football attendance over the three years following its move to the Big 12 compared to the three years prior)
TCU moving to the Big 12 put games vs. nearby opponents Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Texas Tech on TCU's schedule every season. Even after considering that new members won't have UT and OU on their home schedules, of the realistic candidates, only Houston has the similar proximity to see a significant home attendance bump from a Big 12 schedule.
BYU already averaged 59,000, in a stadium that seats 63,000, in 2019 when they played three Pac-12 teams and Boise State in Provo. Cincinnati in 2019 averaged 36,000 in a stadium that seats 40,000, so like BYU there is not much room for increasing average home attendance.
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PAC-12 Makes Expansion Announcement
