Well, Kansas chose the Big Ten instead, I guess.

Big 12 has to make a move and cement this thing. They will get their exit money. No way SEC is waiting until Fall 25’. Over four years away…

Just tell the new schools that they are not getting the exit fee money and have to pay their own buyout. Seems like a fair deal. The time for expansion is now.

(08-26-2021 04:57 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 04:28 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  Also there will be gains in the fan followings of each new member as a result of moving to the Big 12 (TCU had an 18% increase in average home football attendance over the three years following its move to the Big 12 compared to the three years prior)

TCU moving to the Big 12 put games vs. nearby opponents Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Texas Tech on TCU's schedule every season. Even after considering that new members won't have UT and OU on their home schedules, of the realistic candidates, only Houston has the similar proximity to see a significant home attendance bump from a Big 12 schedule.

BYU already averaged 59,000, in a stadium that seats 63,000, in 2019 when they played three Pac-12 teams and Boise State in Provo. Cincinnati in 2019 averaged 36,000 in a stadium that seats 40,000, so like BYU there is not much room for increasing average home attendance.

I used TCU’s increased home attendance as a proxy for the overall increase in fan following that the program enjoyed as a consequence of moving up in the conference pecking order. BYU and Cincinnati don’t have to put 20% more fans in their stadiums to become more valuable media properties than they are today. They need to draw demonstrably more eyeballs to their games via all channels (in person, TV, streaming), and I think that will happen if they join the Big 12 and play regularly against teams that their fan bases have historically viewed as marquee opponents.

(08-26-2021 05:09 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Well, Kansas chose the Big Ten instead, I guess.

LOL.

I think the Big 12's next moves should be trying to get the playoff expansion to 12 teams done, and work with the ACC and likely SEC in getting the rules for the conference championship games changed, allowing divisionless play without playing all conference opponents.

If they can get both of those set, then go hard on expansion. Create the Big 14 by adding Houston, SMU, Memphis, Cincinnati, Central Florida, and South Florida. All 6 teams to join when OU/UT depart. AAC completely decimated, the Big 14 locks in as a top 5 conference. The 14 teams each play 3 permanent rivals, and rotate 5 teams - playing all schools home/away in a 4 year period.

The AAC could also lose Navy, as I'm not sure they'd want to stay as a football affiliate in what's left of the conference. I could see them going independant. The remaining schools would still be able to get schools from C-USA/MAC/Sunbelt to restock.

If I’m the Big 12, I make a similar announcement that no expansion for now and that the league expects to play with 10 including UT and OU until 2025. I don’t think the league needs to announce expansion until it has to. Sure leaves some uncertainty for a period of time but it’s not rocket science who the league’s targets will be. Just no need to expand until it has to. If OU/UT negotiate an earlier exit there will be plenty of time to expand at that point.

(08-26-2021 03:14 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 02:56 PM)ARSTATEFAN1986 Wrote:  Big 12

EAST: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Memphis, West Virginia

Central: Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, SMU

Mid-West: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, TCU

West: BYU, Colorado State, Oklahoma State, UNLV

I like that you have UNLV in here. Las Vegas is an important market of the XII considers going west. Texas Tech though would be better suited for a western division than Oklahoma St given the rivalries with the Kansas schools and they are the overall #1 football school of the conference now.

Ew. UNLV is not it. Playing in the Raider's stadium will not help.

BYU insiders claim that BYU-Notre Dame in Vegas is coming 2022. BYU kicks off the 2021 season v. Arizona in Vegas. USC-LSU is coming 2024.

THAT is the Vegas strategy in which the Big 12 needs to take part.

(08-26-2021 05:19 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 04:57 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 04:28 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  Also there will be gains in the fan followings of each new member as a result of moving to the Big 12 (TCU had an 18% increase in average home football attendance over the three years following its move to the Big 12 compared to the three years prior)

TCU moving to the Big 12 put games vs. nearby opponents Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Texas Tech on TCU's schedule every season. Even after considering that new members won't have UT and OU on their home schedules, of the realistic candidates, only Houston has the similar proximity to see a significant home attendance bump from a Big 12 schedule.

BYU already averaged 59,000, in a stadium that seats 63,000, in 2019 when they played three Pac-12 teams and Boise State in Provo. Cincinnati in 2019 averaged 36,000 in a stadium that seats 40,000, so like BYU there is not much room for increasing average home attendance.

I used TCU’s increased home attendance as a proxy for the overall increase in fan following that the program enjoyed as a consequence of moving up in the conference pecking order. BYU and Cincinnati don’t have to put 20% more fans in their stadiums to become more valuable media properties than they are today. They need to draw demonstrably more eyeballs to their games via all channels (in person, TV, streaming), and I think that will happen if they join the Big 12 and play regularly against teams that their fan bases have historically viewed as marquee opponents.

TV wise, that would help some potential Big 12 candidates but not BYU.

If hypothetically UT and OU are in the SEC for fall 2023 and BYU is in the Big 12 that season, then BYU would have to drop most of their currently scheduled 2023 games to accommodate. BYU's 2023 schedule includes Tennessee, Virginia, Arkansas, Boise State, UCF, and USC. No coach wants every non-con game to be tough, so assume BYU would drop at least 4 of the 6 games that are likely their best TV draws of that season. Given that, I'm not sure that switching to a Big 12 schedule would noticeably improve the TV ratings of BYU games. Maybe it doesn't matter for BYU because the TV execs' impression of them is probably set at this point.

(08-26-2021 05:25 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  If I’m the Big 12, I make a similar announcement that no expansion for now and that the league expects to play with 10 including UT and OU until 2025. I don’t think the league needs to announce expansion until it has to. Sure leaves some uncertainty for a period of time but it’s not rocket science who the league’s targets will be. Just no need to expand until it has to. If OU/UT negotiate an earlier exit there will be plenty of time to expand at that point.

I agree with this. Contrary to the belief of some there is no need to rush to expand as a conference. I think it's pretty obvious the landscape of college football is going to be changing drastically over the next few years. IMO it's better to see how things shake out than to possibly put yourself in an even weaker position than you already are.

(08-26-2021 05:34 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 05:19 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 04:57 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 04:28 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  Also there will be gains in the fan followings of each new member as a result of moving to the Big 12 (TCU had an 18% increase in average home football attendance over the three years following its move to the Big 12 compared to the three years prior)

TCU moving to the Big 12 put games vs. nearby opponents Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Texas Tech on TCU's schedule every season. Even after considering that new members won't have UT and OU on their home schedules, of the realistic candidates, only Houston has the similar proximity to see a significant home attendance bump from a Big 12 schedule.

BYU already averaged 59,000, in a stadium that seats 63,000, in 2019 when they played three Pac-12 teams and Boise State in Provo. Cincinnati in 2019 averaged 36,000 in a stadium that seats 40,000, so like BYU there is not much room for increasing average home attendance.

I used TCU’s increased home attendance as a proxy for the overall increase in fan following that the program enjoyed as a consequence of moving up in the conference pecking order. BYU and Cincinnati don’t have to put 20% more fans in their stadiums to become more valuable media properties than they are today. They need to draw demonstrably more eyeballs to their games via all channels (in person, TV, streaming), and I think that will happen if they join the Big 12 and play regularly against teams that their fan bases have historically viewed as marquee opponents.

TV wise, that would help some potential Big 12 candidates but not BYU.

If hypothetically UT and OU are in the SEC for fall 2023 and BYU is in the Big 12 that season, then BYU would have to drop most of their currently scheduled 2023 games to accommodate. BYU's 2023 schedule includes Tennessee, Virginia, Arkansas, Boise State, UCF, and USC. No coach wants every non-con game to be tough, so assume BYU would drop at least 4 of the 6 games that are likely their best TV draws of that season. Given that, I'm not sure that switching to a Big 12 schedule would noticeably improve the TV ratings of BYU games. Maybe it doesn't matter for BYU because the TV execs' impression of them is probably set at this point.

Independent schedules fluctuate. While 2023 is great, 2024 is ho-hum: UCF, Hawaii, Utah State, Georgia Southern at home - Utah, NC State, Wyoming, UNLV, and ECU on the road. No Boise. The Big 12 schedule would be much better.

(08-26-2021 02:48 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 02:46 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 02:37 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 02:17 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  The key words in this statement are, "at this time", As Many have said including myself, there was never going to be expansion of the PAC in 2021.... In 2024 or when UT and OU leave to the SEC, completely different conversation. Fool's gold if you thought they would consider expansion now

Their new contract comes in summer 2024. So they should have their lineup mostly set by next summer. So I don't think they do unless something comes up during their contract negotiations.

Yes you are correct, all I'm saying is that "IF" they decide to add it won't be until their negotiating their new TV contract. Which as you point out will start prior to 2024, either way there wasn't going to be anything said today

No they are not expanding in two years. They talked to the TV consultants when making this decision. The focus is now on putting together the best package possible with the current line up. The alliance may or may not help with that.

Bottom line the door is closed firmly.

I think its more likely the Pac12 dissolves (or at least loses key members) than it expands within the next 20 years. 20 years from now perhaps schools like Nevada and New Mexico have upped their academics quite a bit, and improved their athletic success to warrant discussion. I say 20 years but it would likely take longer than that. Hawaii could possibly be worthy of discussion in 20 years.

The only schools the Pac 12 would consider are the flagship schools - with a slight chance for a 'state' school. Any school with a city or direction in its name is not getting in. San Diego State and Boise State aren't getting in no matter how great their athletics are. Colorado State and Utah State would only get consideration if there's political pressure on CU and UU.

And again, none of that happens within 20 years - expansion would only occur that quickly if the PAC loses USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington to another conference/new super league.

(08-26-2021 04:57 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 04:28 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  Also there will be gains in the fan followings of each new member as a result of moving to the Big 12 (TCU had an 18% increase in average home football attendance over the three years following its move to the Big 12 compared to the three years prior)

TCU moving to the Big 12 put games vs. nearby opponents Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Texas Tech on TCU's schedule every season. Even after considering that new members won't have UT and OU on their home schedules, of the realistic candidates, only Houston has the similar proximity to see a significant home attendance bump from a Big 12 schedule.

BYU already averaged 59,000, in a stadium that seats 63,000, in 2019 when they played three Pac-12 teams and Boise State in Provo. Cincinnati in 2019 averaged 36,000 in a stadium that seats 40,000, so like BYU there is not much room for increasing average home attendance.

I think you have to look at ticket prices instead of announced attendance. The announced attendance can include a lot of ticket buy-backs which are never really payed for by fans. For BYU games for instance, you don't actually buy the initially offered game tickets. Just wait for the buy-backs to get reissued in a "special" the day before the game. My group caught the 2019 Utah-BYU game for $7 each from BYU ticket office on the reissue- and they weren't the worst/cheapest seats.


Even if the schools don't budge the announced attendance much, there's still a lot of room to increase ticket revenue.

Dang I didn't know West Virginia was going Independent after this year. Takes balls to do that.

This isn't surprising at all because a Pac-12 expansion has to be to 16, and they were fine doing that before when the 16 included Texas, A&M and Oklahoma. Going to 16 now with Baylor, Tech, Houston and TCU isn't really an option for them to suit their needs.

Their needs are TV ties to large markets out east, and while that would be a tie to the markets of Texas, it's not the significant value of an abundance of fans that Texas and A&M had.

The Pac-12 is primarily interested in AAU teams, and will accept non-AAU teams for still have a quality of academics in the ballpark. Accepting Texas Tech and Oklahoma State while adding four AAU members with huge fan bases was a totally viable plan. Adding four non-AAU members just because they are in Texas is really not a viable plan. And adding Kansas and Iowa State and two Texas schools to address the AAU component isn't adding the big market fan bases they need, either.

(08-26-2021 04:54 PM)thrill_house Wrote:  Great news if you're an SMU fan or a Big 12 alum in the DFW Metroplex.

I'm not sure why this would be great news for SMU.... the Big 12's primary needs are much like the Pac-12's needs: Large fan bases in large markets to get a better TV deal. Therefore, you'd see the Big 12 pursue Cincinnati, Houston, UCF and Memphis or USF before SMU, I'd assume. Unless the trio of Baylor, TCU and Tech were lobbying hard for SMU & Houston, but I can't see why they would.

(08-26-2021 05:35 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 05:25 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  If I’m the Big 12, I make a similar announcement that no expansion for now and that the league expects to play with 10 including UT and OU until 2025. I don’t think the league needs to announce expansion until it has to. Sure leaves some uncertainty for a period of time but it’s not rocket science who the league’s targets will be. Just no need to expand until it has to. If OU/UT negotiate an earlier exit there will be plenty of time to expand at that point.

I agree with this. Contrary to the belief of some there is no need to rush to expand as a conference. I think it's pretty obvious the landscape of college football is going to be changing drastically over the next few years. IMO it's better to see how things shake out than to possibly put yourself in an even weaker position than you already are.

It's the exact same logic and reasoning why the AAC has been sitting at 11 for what feels like an uncomfortable length of time. They don't have to make any kind of rushed move, and once they do eventually need to make a move the exact same list of schools that would say yes now would say yes then. The B12 doesn't need to add anyone until there's an official exit date for OU/UT, and unless OU and UT are going to pay an insane amount of money there's no need to allow them to leave early.

(08-26-2021 05:25 PM)Phlipper33 Wrote:  I think the Big 12's next moves should be trying to get the playoff expansion to 12 teams done, and work with the ACC and likely SEC in getting the rules for the conference championship games changed, allowing divisionless play without playing all conference opponents.

If they can get both of those set, then go hard on expansion. Create the Big 14 by adding Houston, SMU, Memphis, Cincinnati, Central Florida, and South Florida. All 6 teams to join when OU/UT depart. AAC completely decimated, the Big 14 locks in as a top 5 conference. The 14 teams each play 3 permanent rivals, and rotate 5 teams - playing all schools home/away in a 4 year period.

The AAC could also lose Navy, as I'm not sure they'd want to stay as a football affiliate in what's left of the conference. I could see them going independant. The remaining schools would still be able to get schools from C-USA/MAC/Sunbelt to restock.

I agree with this, except I don't think SMU needs to be added. Why a 5th Texas team? There really is no need. SMU brings nothing that TCU doesn't already being (and given TCU's last 20 yrs of success, they are miles ahead of SMU at this point). Maybe they go east for an academic like Tulane, or they go for Colorado St that better fit the dynamics of the old Big 8 members plus bring the Colorado/Denver market.

Sent from my LM-G820 using CSNbbs mobile app

(08-26-2021 10:18 PM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 05:25 PM)Phlipper33 Wrote:  I think the Big 12's next moves should be trying to get the playoff expansion to 12 teams done, and work with the ACC and likely SEC in getting the rules for the conference championship games changed, allowing divisionless play without playing all conference opponents.

If they can get both of those set, then go hard on expansion. Create the Big 14 by adding Houston, SMU, Memphis, Cincinnati, Central Florida, and South Florida. All 6 teams to join when OU/UT depart. AAC completely decimated, the Big 14 locks in as a top 5 conference. The 14 teams each play 3 permanent rivals, and rotate 5 teams - playing all schools home/away in a 4 year period.

The AAC could also lose Navy, as I'm not sure they'd want to stay as a football affiliate in what's left of the conference. I could see them going independant. The remaining schools would still be able to get schools from C-USA/MAC/Sunbelt to restock.

I agree with this, except I don't think SMU needs to be added. Why a 5th Texas team? There really is no need. SMU brings nothing that TCU doesn't already being (and given TCU's last 20 yrs of success, they are miles ahead of SMU at this point). Maybe they go east for an academic like Tulane, or they go for Colorado St that better fit the dynamics of the old Big 8 members plus bring the Colorado/Denver market.

Sent from my LM-G820 using CSNbbs mobile app

You’d be surprised at the friends we have….

(08-26-2021 10:21 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 10:18 PM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 05:25 PM)Phlipper33 Wrote:  I think the Big 12's next moves should be trying to get the playoff expansion to 12 teams done, and work with the ACC and likely SEC in getting the rules for the conference championship games changed, allowing divisionless play without playing all conference opponents.

If they can get both of those set, then go hard on expansion. Create the Big 14 by adding Houston, SMU, Memphis, Cincinnati, Central Florida, and South Florida. All 6 teams to join when OU/UT depart. AAC completely decimated, the Big 14 locks in as a top 5 conference. The 14 teams each play 3 permanent rivals, and rotate 5 teams - playing all schools home/away in a 4 year period.

The AAC could also lose Navy, as I'm not sure they'd want to stay as a football affiliate in what's left of the conference. I could see them going independant. The remaining schools would still be able to get schools from C-USA/MAC/Sunbelt to restock.

I agree with this, except I don't think SMU needs to be added. Why a 5th Texas team? There really is no need. SMU brings nothing that TCU doesn't already being (and given TCU's last 20 yrs of success, they are miles ahead of SMU at this point). Maybe they go east for an academic like Tulane, or they go for Colorado St that better fit the dynamics of the old Big 8 members plus bring the Colorado/Denver market.

Sent from my LM-G820 using CSNbbs mobile app

You’d be surprised at the friends we have….

SMU is far more liked than Houston by their old SWC mates.

(08-26-2021 02:07 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  Yep. Unless ND decides to bring their FB to the ACC which they have given no indication of doing I don't think and of the remaining 8 are going anywhere in the immediate future so do they expand, by how many and whom.

Why is ND given the choice?

(08-26-2021 05:38 PM)Phlipper33 Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 02:48 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 02:46 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 02:37 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-26-2021 02:17 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  The key words in this statement are, "at this time", As Many have said including myself, there was never going to be expansion of the PAC in 2021.... In 2024 or when UT and OU leave to the SEC, completely different conversation. Fool's gold if you thought they would consider expansion now

Their new contract comes in summer 2024. So they should have their lineup mostly set by next summer. So I don't think they do unless something comes up during their contract negotiations.

Yes you are correct, all I'm saying is that "IF" they decide to add it won't be until their negotiating their new TV contract. Which as you point out will start prior to 2024, either way there wasn't going to be anything said today

No they are not expanding in two years. They talked to the TV consultants when making this decision. The focus is now on putting together the best package possible with the current line up. The alliance may or may not help with that.

Bottom line the door is closed firmly.

I think its more likely the Pac12 dissolves (or at least loses key members) than it expands within the next 20 years. 20 years from now perhaps schools like Nevada and New Mexico have upped their academics quite a bit, and improved their athletic success to warrant discussion. I say 20 years but it would likely take longer than that. Hawaii could possibly be worthy of discussion in 20 years.

The only schools the Pac 12 would consider are the flagship schools - with a slight chance for a 'state' school. Any school with a city or direction in its name is not getting in. San Diego State and Boise State aren't getting in no matter how great their athletics are. Colorado State and Utah State would only get consideration if there's political pressure on CU and UU.

And again, none of that happens within 20 years - expansion would only occur that quickly if the PAC loses USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington to another conference/new super league.

As Nevada and New Mexico improve their academics, the other P12 schools improve their academics even higher so those schools will always be behind the acceptable rate.