When could the Alliance start?
The Pac-12 OOC schedule is pretty packed out through the decade. The Big Ten's is relatively sparse. The ACC has ALL of those SEC opponents. So, when could the "Alliance" start?
The Big Ten
Here are the B1G teams with 3 non-Alliance games (with "biggest" opponent listed) on future schedules:
2023: Illinois (@Kansas), Iowa (@ISU), Michigan (host 3G5s), Penn State (v.WVU)
2024: Illinois (v.Kansas), Iowa (v.ISU), Michigan (@Texas), Penn State (@WVU), Wisconsin (v.Alabama)
2025: Iowa (@ISU), Michigan (@Oklahoma), Minnesota (@BYU), Nebraska (@Cincy), Wisconsin(@Alabama)
2026: Nebraska (vs.Tennessee), Penn State (@Temple)
A few near-P4 teams here: Kansas, ISU, WVU, Cincy, Temple, and BYU. Rope an expanded Big 12 into the alliance and you are down to the following:
2023: Michigan (host 3G5s)
2024: Michigan (@Texas), Wisconsin (v.Alabama)
2025: Michigan (@Oklahoma), Wisconsin(@Alabama)
2026: Nebraska (vs.Tennessee)
Nebraska can easily push out the Tennessee game (or a '26 G5) a year or two. Michigan can easily bump a '23 G5. The Wolverines' back-to-back games in the Southwest 'may' be able to be moved with Texas and Oklahoma having to juggle schedule changes of their own. Wisconsin-Alabama? may have to be scrapped... unless the SEC goes to 9 games and the scrapping is mutual. Either way, the Big Ten can start the Alliance in 2023.
The ACC
Similar to the Big Ten, the ACC has more room than I initially anticipated. While the B1G had 15 schedules that could not accommodate an Alliance game, the ACC only has 14. Notre Dame helps alot getting teams to 9. Here are the years ACC teams have 3 non-Alliance FBS opponents, listed:
2023: BC(@Army/v.UConn/v.NIU), FSU(@UF/v.USM/nLSU), GT(@OleM/v.BGU/v.UGA), Miami(v.MiOH/v.TA&M/@Tem)
2024: NCST(v.BYU/@USF/v.LaT), WF(@Army/v.UConn/v.OleM), Clem(v.App/v.USCe/nUGA)
2025: VT(v.ODU/v.Vandy/nUSCe), WF(@OleM/@Lib/v.Army), Clem(@USCe/v.LSU/v.Troy), UNC(v.TCU/@Char/@UCF)
2026: Clem(@LSU/v.USCe/v.GaSo)
2027: none
2028: NCST(@Troy/@ECU/v.Vandy)
2030: NCST(@BYU/@USCe/v.Char)
As expected, Clemson comes out on top with 3 such years; NC State ties, but their later 2 are so far in the future it should be easy to push certain games a year or two later. Clearing the 2025 schedule however would take a lot of doing, cost money, and poison the water for future scheduling.
If the SEC goes to 9 games, and if you count BYU, TCU, and Temple as future Allliance members, the ACC could start in 2024... otherwise it'll be 2026.
The Pac-12
Though smaller than the first two conferences, the Pac-12 has many more conflicting schedules even AFTER counting Big 12 and BYU games as part of the Alliance. I stopped compliling the list; at least 3 teams have scheduling issues (again, counting Big 12/BYU as "alliance") every year through 2026.
The SEC going to 9 games, again, could help. Presuming that happens 2024, at the earliest, the Pac-12 would only have 2 schedules out of compliance (2030 Colorado is far enough out that it could easiliy, and 2025 Cal could simply forgoe scheduling their annual FCS opponent).
Conclusion
It takes at least 2 conferences for an "alliance" to function. The other way the Pac-12 could get the alliance started is by (temporarily) dropping to 8 conference games. Doing so in 2023 would kick-off the alliance with, mostly, B1G-Pac games. After a 4 year cycle, the Pac-12 could expand back to 9 conference games in 2027. The ACC will join the alliance (though their games will count as such upto that point) in 2026.
If the SEC jumps to 9 games the alliance would start for ALL 3 conferences in 2024 and not require the Pac-12 to drop to 8 conference games. Regardless of that, if an expanded Big 12 is NOT counted as Alliance, all 3 conferences will start the alliance together in 2026.
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