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UCF being pursued by B12
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BigEastMike Offline
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Post: #141
RE: UCF being pursued by B12
(08-26-2021 09:24 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  
(08-26-2021 08:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  Why will they never bring more? Because they are already better than half the P5?

Because they are maxed out. Their recruiting base and their fan base are the population of Mormons. What makes BYU so valuable as a sports property is that, as the official school of the LDS church, a very large chunk of the Mormon population is BYU fans.

BYU brings a relatively consistent performance because they're always going to land the majority of the top Mormon talent in the world. That's why they've won 18+ basketball games 35 of the last 43 years and they'll never be like, truly terrible. The recruiting base is there to maintain a very good level of play even in rebuilds.

But where do they go? How do they build on success?

Think of the growth of Gonzaga: Gonzaga went from small worthless media property like other WCC schools, to a valuable media property by increasing their recruiting game based off their success, over and over again, until they're a Top 5 program every year. They out-recruit the Pac-12 now because Gonzaga's in the Sweet 16/Elite 8 every year, competing for a title and Washington State isn't.


For BYU, increasing their fan base via their win percentage is a long-shot because they can't realistically recruit their way to that level. And anyone who's going to be a BYU fan (aka Mormons) already are BYU fans because they're Mormons.

The major obstacle to winning more often is that they'd need to increase their recruiting level to be a Top 10 team every year, while being the Mormon university limits recruiting.

You don't HAVE to be a Mormon to attend BYU or play BYU football. But you do have to adhere to the same rules that BYU has created around the LDS faith. They'll occasionally land guys like Jamaal Williams or Jim McMahon. But Williams was suspended from the team for having a girl in his room. BYU just isn't going to be able to consistently land the dozens of non-Mormon stud recruits to be consistently EXCELLENT at football.

UCF had a great run, but also gone 0-12. Their biggest obstacle in recruiting is their conference affiliation; their recruiting is going UP in the Big 12. BYU's probably isn't.


I don't want to sound like I'm an anti-BYU or anti-Mormon person. I have my beliefs on conference realignment and schools based on what I know of the landscape and how I see schools trending and fit.

For example, I'm not arguing "against BYU" because I'm a fan of someone else and I want that spot for my team and therefore will give the arguments against everyone else and the argument for my school. (My school doesn't play football and isn't getting into the Big East unless we become East Coast Gonzaga!). I sound like I'm pro-Houston, pro-Cincinnati and pro-UCF because I think those are the best choices for the Big 12. My opinion of "who should be invited" is based more on just thinking "If I'm the Big 12, what would I want?"

But that fanbase will be there every year thick and thin. BYU fanbase is the closest thing to a certainty in college athletics. They might not have the highest ceiling but they have the highest floor.
08-26-2021 10:45 PM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #142
RE: UCF being pursued by B12
(08-26-2021 09:24 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  
(08-26-2021 08:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  Why will they never bring more? Because they are already better than half the P5?

Because they are maxed out. Their recruiting base and their fan base are the population of Mormons. What makes BYU so valuable as a sports property is that, as the official school of the LDS church, a very large chunk of the Mormon population is BYU fans.

BYU brings a relatively consistent performance because they're always going to land the majority of the top Mormon talent in the world. That's why they've won 18+ basketball games 35 of the last 43 years and they'll never be like, truly terrible. The recruiting base is there to maintain a very good level of play even in rebuilds.

But where do they go? How do they build on success?

Think of the growth of Gonzaga: Gonzaga went from small worthless media property like other WCC schools, to a valuable media property by increasing their recruiting game based off their success, over and over again, until they're a Top 5 program every year. They out-recruit the Pac-12 now because Gonzaga's in the Sweet 16/Elite 8 every year, competing for a title and Washington State isn't.


For BYU, increasing their fan base via their win percentage is a long-shot because they can't realistically recruit their way to that level. And anyone who's going to be a BYU fan (aka Mormons) already are BYU fans because they're Mormons.

The major obstacle to winning more often is that they'd need to increase their recruiting level to be a Top 10 team every year, while being the Mormon university limits recruiting.

You don't HAVE to be a Mormon to attend BYU or play BYU football. But you do have to adhere to the same rules that BYU has created around the LDS faith. They'll occasionally land guys like Jamaal Williams or Jim McMahon. But Williams was suspended from the team for having a girl in his room. BYU just isn't going to be able to consistently land the dozens of non-Mormon stud recruits to be consistently EXCELLENT at football.

UCF had a great run, but also gone 0-12. Their biggest obstacle in recruiting is their conference affiliation; their recruiting is going UP in the Big 12. BYU's probably isn't.


I don't want to sound like I'm an anti-BYU or anti-Mormon person. I have my beliefs on conference realignment and schools based on what I know of the landscape and how I see schools trending and fit.

For example, I'm not arguing "against BYU" because I'm a fan of someone else and I want that spot for my team and therefore will give the arguments against everyone else and the argument for my school. (My school doesn't play football and isn't getting into the Big East unless we become East Coast Gonzaga!). I sound like I'm pro-Houston, pro-Cincinnati and pro-UCF because I think those are the best choices for the Big 12. My opinion of "who should be invited" is based more on just thinking "If I'm the Big 12, what would I want?"

Maxed out? Not hardly. The top Latter-day Saint football talent goes to USC, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, and, yes, the Ewetes, in addition to elite schools like Alabama and Norte Dame. BYU recruiting has been severely hurt because of the independence wilderness.

BYU has tons of improvement potential in a decent conference like the Big 12.

Also, FWIW, 4 of BYU basketball’s starting 5 last year were not members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Its recent bball recruiting and transfers follow a similar trend.
08-26-2021 11:00 PM
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SDSUguy Offline
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Post: #143
RE: UCF being pursued by B12
(08-25-2021 04:56 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  
(08-25-2021 04:50 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(08-25-2021 04:41 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  
(08-25-2021 04:38 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  From a television market perspective, Memphis trails seven other markets from which prospective candidates attract viewers. According to Nielsen, Memphis is the nation’s 50th-ranked market with about 650,000 TV homes. Houston, at No. 10 with 2.3 million TV homes, is first among the candidates, followed by Tampa-St. Petersburg (South Florida) at No. 11, Denver (Colorado State) at 17, Orlando (Central Florida) , Salt Lake City (BYU) at No. 34 and Cincinnati (Cincinnati) at 36.

So based off of pure TV Market teams would be ranked as the following:

1.Houston
2.USF
3.Colorado State
4.UCF
5. BYU
6. Cincinnati
7. Memphis

Does anyone think the four invites will be Houston, USF, Colorado State, and UCF? (why does this feel like 2016 all over again)


link
https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/s.../90571860/
Yes but you have to actually have a foothold in your market for it to carry weight. Tampa hasn’t embraced usf the way Orlando has embraced UCF. In fact, Tampa seems to have embraced UCF more than usf.

Yes, market impact. Tampa has 3 championship-caliber pro teams USF has to fend off: Buccaneers, Lightning, Rays. Competition in Orlando is little.

Ok... That is a great point and that would be reason to remove Colorado State as well since Colorado has Denver pro teams and the Buffs are #1... So a new list of Top 5 by TV Market would be:

1. Houston
2. UCF
3. BYU
4. Cincinnati
5. Memphis

SDSU should be there at #3. There are 3.4 million people in San Diego County and the largest metro without an NFL team. Largest without an NBA team as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_me...ical_areas
08-27-2021 11:38 AM
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GTFletch Offline
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Post: #144
RE: UCF being pursued by B12
(08-27-2021 11:38 AM)SDSUguy Wrote:  
(08-25-2021 04:56 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  
(08-25-2021 04:50 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(08-25-2021 04:41 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  
(08-25-2021 04:38 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  From a television market perspective, Memphis trails seven other markets from which prospective candidates attract viewers. According to Nielsen, Memphis is the nation’s 50th-ranked market with about 650,000 TV homes. Houston, at No. 10 with 2.3 million TV homes, is first among the candidates, followed by Tampa-St. Petersburg (South Florida) at No. 11, Denver (Colorado State) at 17, Orlando (Central Florida) , Salt Lake City (BYU) at No. 34 and Cincinnati (Cincinnati) at 36.

So based off of pure TV Market teams would be ranked as the following:

1.Houston
2.USF
3.Colorado State
4.UCF
5. BYU
6. Cincinnati
7. Memphis

Does anyone think the four invites will be Houston, USF, Colorado State, and UCF? (why does this feel like 2016 all over again)


link
https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/s.../90571860/
Yes but you have to actually have a foothold in your market for it to carry weight. Tampa hasn’t embraced usf the way Orlando has embraced UCF. In fact, Tampa seems to have embraced UCF more than usf.

Yes, market impact. Tampa has 3 championship-caliber pro teams USF has to fend off: Buccaneers, Lightning, Rays. Competition in Orlando is little.

Ok... That is a great point and that would be reason to remove Colorado State as well since Colorado has Denver pro teams and the Buffs are #1... So a new list of Top 5 by TV Market would be:

1. Houston
2. UCF
3. BYU
4. Cincinnati
5. Memphis

SDSU should be there at #3. There are 3.4 million people in San Diego County and the largest metro without an NFL team. Largest without an NBA team as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_me...ical_areas

The problem with SDSU Football is that no one watches....Or shoudl I say not enough people watch for a P-5 invite. For example Nevada-SDSU game on CBS was most watched Mountain West game of last season... How many viewers?? 859,000 viewers. There is no way that the BIG12 who is looking for the TV Deal after 2025 can invite SDSU even if they wanted to.


Link
https://nevadasportsnet.com/news/reporte...-of-season
08-27-2021 02:29 PM
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ArmoredUpKnight Online
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Post: #145
RE: UCF being pursued by B12
(08-27-2021 11:38 AM)SDSUguy Wrote:  
(08-25-2021 04:56 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  
(08-25-2021 04:50 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(08-25-2021 04:41 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  
(08-25-2021 04:38 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  From a television market perspective, Memphis trails seven other markets from which prospective candidates attract viewers. According to Nielsen, Memphis is the nation’s 50th-ranked market with about 650,000 TV homes. Houston, at No. 10 with 2.3 million TV homes, is first among the candidates, followed by Tampa-St. Petersburg (South Florida) at No. 11, Denver (Colorado State) at 17, Orlando (Central Florida) , Salt Lake City (BYU) at No. 34 and Cincinnati (Cincinnati) at 36.

So based off of pure TV Market teams would be ranked as the following:

1.Houston
2.USF
3.Colorado State
4.UCF
5. BYU
6. Cincinnati
7. Memphis

Does anyone think the four invites will be Houston, USF, Colorado State, and UCF? (why does this feel like 2016 all over again)


link
https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/s.../90571860/
Yes but you have to actually have a foothold in your market for it to carry weight. Tampa hasn’t embraced usf the way Orlando has embraced UCF. In fact, Tampa seems to have embraced UCF more than usf.

Yes, market impact. Tampa has 3 championship-caliber pro teams USF has to fend off: Buccaneers, Lightning, Rays. Competition in Orlando is little.

Ok... That is a great point and that would be reason to remove Colorado State as well since Colorado has Denver pro teams and the Buffs are #1... So a new list of Top 5 by TV Market would be:

1. Houston
2. UCF
3. BYU
4. Cincinnati
5. Memphis

SDSU should be there at #3. There are 3.4 million people in San Diego County and the largest metro without an NFL team. Largest without an NBA team as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_me...ical_areas

The Mountain West doesn't even value SDSU, why should the Big12? The Boise State sweetheart deal makes it clear to everyone who is the most valuable in the Mountain West.

SDSU should have joined the AAC when it had the chance. SDSU should find a travel partner and request another invite to the AAC after Cincy and UCF leave.
08-27-2021 02:53 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #146
RE: UCF being pursued by B12
(08-27-2021 02:53 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  SDSU should have joined the AAC when it had the chance. SDSU should find a travel partner and request another invite to the AAC after Cincy and UCF leave.

If it's FB-only and off to the Big West, it's not so much a travel partner as a second PTZ school so the AAC can offer an option for 3:30 / 7:00 / 11:00pm scheduling in most weekends of the season.

I have been paying close to zero attention to the MWC over the past three or four years ... which other PTZ school would be the most interesting FB for the AAC?
08-30-2021 08:05 AM
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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Post: #147
RE: UCF being pursued by B12
(08-26-2021 10:45 PM)BigEastMike Wrote:  
(08-26-2021 09:24 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  
(08-26-2021 08:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  Why will they never bring more? Because they are already better than half the P5?

Because they are maxed out. Their recruiting base and their fan base are the population of Mormons. What makes BYU so valuable as a sports property is that, as the official school of the LDS church, a very large chunk of the Mormon population is BYU fans.

BYU brings a relatively consistent performance because they're always going to land the majority of the top Mormon talent in the world. That's why they've won 18+ basketball games 35 of the last 43 years and they'll never be like, truly terrible. The recruiting base is there to maintain a very good level of play even in rebuilds.

But where do they go? How do they build on success?

Think of the growth of Gonzaga: Gonzaga went from small worthless media property like other WCC schools, to a valuable media property by increasing their recruiting game based off their success, over and over again, until they're a Top 5 program every year. They out-recruit the Pac-12 now because Gonzaga's in the Sweet 16/Elite 8 every year, competing for a title and Washington State isn't.


For BYU, increasing their fan base via their win percentage is a long-shot because they can't realistically recruit their way to that level. And anyone who's going to be a BYU fan (aka Mormons) already are BYU fans because they're Mormons.

The major obstacle to winning more often is that they'd need to increase their recruiting level to be a Top 10 team every year, while being the Mormon university limits recruiting.

You don't HAVE to be a Mormon to attend BYU or play BYU football. But you do have to adhere to the same rules that BYU has created around the LDS faith. They'll occasionally land guys like Jamaal Williams or Jim McMahon. But Williams was suspended from the team for having a girl in his room. BYU just isn't going to be able to consistently land the dozens of non-Mormon stud recruits to be consistently EXCELLENT at football.

UCF had a great run, but also gone 0-12. Their biggest obstacle in recruiting is their conference affiliation; their recruiting is going UP in the Big 12. BYU's probably isn't.


I don't want to sound like I'm an anti-BYU or anti-Mormon person. I have my beliefs on conference realignment and schools based on what I know of the landscape and how I see schools trending and fit.

For example, I'm not arguing "against BYU" because I'm a fan of someone else and I want that spot for my team and therefore will give the arguments against everyone else and the argument for my school. (My school doesn't play football and isn't getting into the Big East unless we become East Coast Gonzaga!). I sound like I'm pro-Houston, pro-Cincinnati and pro-UCF because I think those are the best choices for the Big 12. My opinion of "who should be invited" is based more on just thinking "If I'm the Big 12, what would I want?"

But that fanbase will be there every year thick and thin. BYU fanbase is the closest thing to a certainty in college athletics. They might not have the highest ceiling but they have the highest floor.

Also, while many evangelicals have many doctrinal issues with the LDS church, think of someone like Mitt Romney. Evangelicals rallied around him despite his faith, or in some cases because of his faith.

A BYU with national exposure would win many fans over. I would think most fans would rather root for BYU than Bama or Clemson at this point.

However I could also see a strong BYU becoming an "evil empire" type school, not because of doctrine, but because they get older, more physically mature players because of the mission requirement.
08-30-2021 08:44 AM
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BePcr07 Online
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Post: #148
RE: UCF being pursued by B12
(08-30-2021 08:44 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(08-26-2021 10:45 PM)BigEastMike Wrote:  
(08-26-2021 09:24 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  
(08-26-2021 08:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  Why will they never bring more? Because they are already better than half the P5?

Because they are maxed out. Their recruiting base and their fan base are the population of Mormons. What makes BYU so valuable as a sports property is that, as the official school of the LDS church, a very large chunk of the Mormon population is BYU fans.

BYU brings a relatively consistent performance because they're always going to land the majority of the top Mormon talent in the world. That's why they've won 18+ basketball games 35 of the last 43 years and they'll never be like, truly terrible. The recruiting base is there to maintain a very good level of play even in rebuilds.

But where do they go? How do they build on success?

Think of the growth of Gonzaga: Gonzaga went from small worthless media property like other WCC schools, to a valuable media property by increasing their recruiting game based off their success, over and over again, until they're a Top 5 program every year. They out-recruit the Pac-12 now because Gonzaga's in the Sweet 16/Elite 8 every year, competing for a title and Washington State isn't.


For BYU, increasing their fan base via their win percentage is a long-shot because they can't realistically recruit their way to that level. And anyone who's going to be a BYU fan (aka Mormons) already are BYU fans because they're Mormons.

The major obstacle to winning more often is that they'd need to increase their recruiting level to be a Top 10 team every year, while being the Mormon university limits recruiting.

You don't HAVE to be a Mormon to attend BYU or play BYU football. But you do have to adhere to the same rules that BYU has created around the LDS faith. They'll occasionally land guys like Jamaal Williams or Jim McMahon. But Williams was suspended from the team for having a girl in his room. BYU just isn't going to be able to consistently land the dozens of non-Mormon stud recruits to be consistently EXCELLENT at football.

UCF had a great run, but also gone 0-12. Their biggest obstacle in recruiting is their conference affiliation; their recruiting is going UP in the Big 12. BYU's probably isn't.


I don't want to sound like I'm an anti-BYU or anti-Mormon person. I have my beliefs on conference realignment and schools based on what I know of the landscape and how I see schools trending and fit.

For example, I'm not arguing "against BYU" because I'm a fan of someone else and I want that spot for my team and therefore will give the arguments against everyone else and the argument for my school. (My school doesn't play football and isn't getting into the Big East unless we become East Coast Gonzaga!). I sound like I'm pro-Houston, pro-Cincinnati and pro-UCF because I think those are the best choices for the Big 12. My opinion of "who should be invited" is based more on just thinking "If I'm the Big 12, what would I want?"

But that fanbase will be there every year thick and thin. BYU fanbase is the closest thing to a certainty in college athletics. They might not have the highest ceiling but they have the highest floor.

Also, while many evangelicals have many doctrinal issues with the LDS church, think of someone like Mitt Romney. Evangelicals rallied around him despite his faith, or in some cases because of his faith.

A BYU with national exposure would win many fans over. I would think most fans would rather root for BYU than Bama or Clemson at this point.

However I could also see a strong BYU becoming an "evil empire" type school, not because of doctrine, but because they get older, more physically mature players because of the mission requirement.

The mission is not a requirement. It’d be more accurate to say it’s quite frowned upon not to go.
08-30-2021 09:13 AM
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f1do Offline
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Post: #149
RE: UCF being pursued by B12
(08-30-2021 09:13 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(08-30-2021 08:44 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(08-26-2021 10:45 PM)BigEastMike Wrote:  
(08-26-2021 09:24 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  
(08-26-2021 08:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  Why will they never bring more? Because they are already better than half the P5?

Because they are maxed out. Their recruiting base and their fan base are the population of Mormons. What makes BYU so valuable as a sports property is that, as the official school of the LDS church, a very large chunk of the Mormon population is BYU fans.

BYU brings a relatively consistent performance because they're always going to land the majority of the top Mormon talent in the world. That's why they've won 18+ basketball games 35 of the last 43 years and they'll never be like, truly terrible. The recruiting base is there to maintain a very good level of play even in rebuilds.

But where do they go? How do they build on success?

Think of the growth of Gonzaga: Gonzaga went from small worthless media property like other WCC schools, to a valuable media property by increasing their recruiting game based off their success, over and over again, until they're a Top 5 program every year. They out-recruit the Pac-12 now because Gonzaga's in the Sweet 16/Elite 8 every year, competing for a title and Washington State isn't.


For BYU, increasing their fan base via their win percentage is a long-shot because they can't realistically recruit their way to that level. And anyone who's going to be a BYU fan (aka Mormons) already are BYU fans because they're Mormons.

The major obstacle to winning more often is that they'd need to increase their recruiting level to be a Top 10 team every year, while being the Mormon university limits recruiting.

You don't HAVE to be a Mormon to attend BYU or play BYU football. But you do have to adhere to the same rules that BYU has created around the LDS faith. They'll occasionally land guys like Jamaal Williams or Jim McMahon. But Williams was suspended from the team for having a girl in his room. BYU just isn't going to be able to consistently land the dozens of non-Mormon stud recruits to be consistently EXCELLENT at football.

UCF had a great run, but also gone 0-12. Their biggest obstacle in recruiting is their conference affiliation; their recruiting is going UP in the Big 12. BYU's probably isn't.


I don't want to sound like I'm an anti-BYU or anti-Mormon person. I have my beliefs on conference realignment and schools based on what I know of the landscape and how I see schools trending and fit.

For example, I'm not arguing "against BYU" because I'm a fan of someone else and I want that spot for my team and therefore will give the arguments against everyone else and the argument for my school. (My school doesn't play football and isn't getting into the Big East unless we become East Coast Gonzaga!). I sound like I'm pro-Houston, pro-Cincinnati and pro-UCF because I think those are the best choices for the Big 12. My opinion of "who should be invited" is based more on just thinking "If I'm the Big 12, what would I want?"

But that fanbase will be there every year thick and thin. BYU fanbase is the closest thing to a certainty in college athletics. They might not have the highest ceiling but they have the highest floor.

Also, while many evangelicals have many doctrinal issues with the LDS church, think of someone like Mitt Romney. Evangelicals rallied around him despite his faith, or in some cases because of his faith.

A BYU with national exposure would win many fans over. I would think most fans would rather root for BYU than Bama or Clemson at this point.

However I could also see a strong BYU becoming an "evil empire" type school, not because of doctrine, but because they get older, more physically mature players because of the mission requirement.

The mission is not a requirement. It’d be more accurate to say it’s quite frowned upon not to go.
It is not unusual for someone to not serve a mission--especially a high-level athlete. A prominent recent example is Zach Wilson and his brother Josh (also at BYU). There can be a culture of judging someone who didn't serve due to a leader decades ago who said "every worthy young man should serve a mission". Recently leaders have backed off that and said those who do serve should be prepared financially, mentally, physically, and spiritually. Some of the judgement still is there of course (if you can figure out how to get people to not judge others let me know).

Another comment in this thread I'd take issue with is this statement: "And anyone who's going to be a BYU fan (aka Mormons) already are BYU fans because they're Mormons."
This is a naïve misconception. There are MANY Mormons out there who HATE the stereotype that Mormons are BYU fans. I personally know many Utah, Utah State, and Weber State fans that HATE BYU. They love their school instead (as you would expect). If being Mormon = BYU fans, you would have 6.5 million BYU fans spread across all parts of the US. Wouldn't that be awesome to be able to claim! But the truth is not all Mormons are BYU fans and not all BYU fans are Mormon.
BYU's recruiting would definitely improve if they were in a P5 conference. There are P5 guys who eliminate BYU pretty early because P5 schools are recruiting them and they want to play at the highest level. To that recruit, BYU is a harder sell. But make BYU a P5 team, and they can knock out that argument used against them by all the PAC12 schools that recruit in the same area.
08-30-2021 10:03 AM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #150
RE: UCF being pursued by B12
(08-30-2021 10:03 AM)f1do Wrote:  ... But make BYU a P5 team, and they can knock out that argument used against them by all the PAC12 schools that recruit in the same area.

In their only prospective spot, though, that would be making BYU a "P5ish" team, with the new Big 12 likely to be in a midway spot between the four elite conference and the five journeymen conferences.

However, if it's perceived as closer to being in an elite conference than BYU's present status, then it ought to improve recruiting to some extent.
08-30-2021 10:08 AM
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f1do Offline
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RE: UCF being pursued by B12
(08-30-2021 10:08 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(08-30-2021 10:03 AM)f1do Wrote:  ... But make BYU a P5 team, and they can knock out that argument used against them by all the PAC12 schools that recruit in the same area.

In their only prospective spot, though, that would be making BYU a "P5ish" team, with the new Big 12 likely to be in a midway spot between the four elite conference and the five journeymen conferences.

However, if it's perceived as closer to being in an elite conference than BYU's present status, then it ought to improve recruiting to some extent.

Do you honestly think there will end up being 3 tiers? I estimate you are either P5 or you aren't--at least that is the tone taken with BYU as an independent. Were Texas and Oklahoma the only things keeping the Big 12 as a P5?
08-30-2021 03:16 PM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #152
RE: UCF being pursued by B12
(08-26-2021 11:00 PM)YNot Wrote:  
(08-26-2021 09:24 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  
(08-26-2021 08:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  Why will they never bring more? Because they are already better than half the P5?

Because they are maxed out. Their recruiting base and their fan base are the population of Mormons. What makes BYU so valuable as a sports property is that, as the official school of the LDS church, a very large chunk of the Mormon population is BYU fans.

BYU brings a relatively consistent performance because they're always going to land the majority of the top Mormon talent in the world. That's why they've won 18+ basketball games 35 of the last 43 years and they'll never be like, truly terrible. The recruiting base is there to maintain a very good level of play even in rebuilds.

But where do they go? How do they build on success?

Think of the growth of Gonzaga: Gonzaga went from small worthless media property like other WCC schools, to a valuable media property by increasing their recruiting game based off their success, over and over again, until they're a Top 5 program every year. They out-recruit the Pac-12 now because Gonzaga's in the Sweet 16/Elite 8 every year, competing for a title and Washington State isn't.


For BYU, increasing their fan base via their win percentage is a long-shot because they can't realistically recruit their way to that level. And anyone who's going to be a BYU fan (aka Mormons) already are BYU fans because they're Mormons.

The major obstacle to winning more often is that they'd need to increase their recruiting level to be a Top 10 team every year, while being the Mormon university limits recruiting.

You don't HAVE to be a Mormon to attend BYU or play BYU football. But you do have to adhere to the same rules that BYU has created around the LDS faith. They'll occasionally land guys like Jamaal Williams or Jim McMahon. But Williams was suspended from the team for having a girl in his room. BYU just isn't going to be able to consistently land the dozens of non-Mormon stud recruits to be consistently EXCELLENT at football.

UCF had a great run, but also gone 0-12. Their biggest obstacle in recruiting is their conference affiliation; their recruiting is going UP in the Big 12. BYU's probably isn't.


I don't want to sound like I'm an anti-BYU or anti-Mormon person. I have my beliefs on conference realignment and schools based on what I know of the landscape and how I see schools trending and fit.

For example, I'm not arguing "against BYU" because I'm a fan of someone else and I want that spot for my team and therefore will give the arguments against everyone else and the argument for my school. (My school doesn't play football and isn't getting into the Big East unless we become East Coast Gonzaga!). I sound like I'm pro-Houston, pro-Cincinnati and pro-UCF because I think those are the best choices for the Big 12. My opinion of "who should be invited" is based more on just thinking "If I'm the Big 12, what would I want?"

Maxed out? Not hardly. The top Latter-day Saint football talent goes to USC, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, and, yes, the Ewetes, in addition to elite schools like Alabama and Norte Dame. BYU recruiting has been severely hurt because of the independence wilderness.

BYU has tons of improvement potential in a decent conference like the Big 12.

Also, FWIW, 4 of BYU basketball’s starting 5 last year were not members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Its recent bball recruiting and transfers follow a similar trend.

I’d be curious to know how many LDS kids picked a P5 over playing for BYU.
08-30-2021 04:47 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #153
RE: UCF being pursued by B12
(08-30-2021 04:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’d be curious to know how many LDS kids picked a P5 over playing for BYU.

This would be a good place to start: https://utahutes.com/sports/football/roster
08-30-2021 05:15 PM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #154
RE: UCF being pursued by B12
(08-30-2021 04:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(08-26-2021 11:00 PM)YNot Wrote:  
(08-26-2021 09:24 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  
(08-26-2021 08:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  Why will they never bring more? Because they are already better than half the P5?

Because they are maxed out. Their recruiting base and their fan base are the population of Mormons. What makes BYU so valuable as a sports property is that, as the official school of the LDS church, a very large chunk of the Mormon population is BYU fans.

BYU brings a relatively consistent performance because they're always going to land the majority of the top Mormon talent in the world. That's why they've won 18+ basketball games 35 of the last 43 years and they'll never be like, truly terrible. The recruiting base is there to maintain a very good level of play even in rebuilds.

But where do they go? How do they build on success?

Think of the growth of Gonzaga: Gonzaga went from small worthless media property like other WCC schools, to a valuable media property by increasing their recruiting game based off their success, over and over again, until they're a Top 5 program every year. They out-recruit the Pac-12 now because Gonzaga's in the Sweet 16/Elite 8 every year, competing for a title and Washington State isn't.


For BYU, increasing their fan base via their win percentage is a long-shot because they can't realistically recruit their way to that level. And anyone who's going to be a BYU fan (aka Mormons) already are BYU fans because they're Mormons.

The major obstacle to winning more often is that they'd need to increase their recruiting level to be a Top 10 team every year, while being the Mormon university limits recruiting.

You don't HAVE to be a Mormon to attend BYU or play BYU football. But you do have to adhere to the same rules that BYU has created around the LDS faith. They'll occasionally land guys like Jamaal Williams or Jim McMahon. But Williams was suspended from the team for having a girl in his room. BYU just isn't going to be able to consistently land the dozens of non-Mormon stud recruits to be consistently EXCELLENT at football.

UCF had a great run, but also gone 0-12. Their biggest obstacle in recruiting is their conference affiliation; their recruiting is going UP in the Big 12. BYU's probably isn't.


I don't want to sound like I'm an anti-BYU or anti-Mormon person. I have my beliefs on conference realignment and schools based on what I know of the landscape and how I see schools trending and fit.

For example, I'm not arguing "against BYU" because I'm a fan of someone else and I want that spot for my team and therefore will give the arguments against everyone else and the argument for my school. (My school doesn't play football and isn't getting into the Big East unless we become East Coast Gonzaga!). I sound like I'm pro-Houston, pro-Cincinnati and pro-UCF because I think those are the best choices for the Big 12. My opinion of "who should be invited" is based more on just thinking "If I'm the Big 12, what would I want?"

Maxed out? Not hardly. The top Latter-day Saint football talent goes to USC, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, and, yes, the Ewetes, in addition to elite schools like Alabama and Norte Dame. BYU recruiting has been severely hurt because of the independence wilderness.

BYU has tons of improvement potential in a decent conference like the Big 12.

Also, FWIW, 4 of BYU basketball’s starting 5 last year were not members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Its recent bball recruiting and transfers follow a similar trend.

I’d be curious to know how many LDS kids picked a P5 over playing for BYU.

Here's a good article for reference. It's not a completely accurate picture because it focuses on returned missionaries. There are many Latter-day Saint players that don't serve missions, including at BYU - like Zach Wilson.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/...r-BB1c1R6c

Last year there were at least 39 Latter-day Saint *returned missionaries* on P5 rosters, including Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, USC, Virginia, West Virginia, and Utah. Again, this doesn't include Latter-day Saint players who haven't served a mission - like Puka Nacua (4-star recruit who signed with Washington) who just transferred from UW to BYU.

Probably about 75% of the 4 and 5 star Latter-day Saint players play elsewhere than BYU.
(This post was last modified: 08-30-2021 05:26 PM by YNot.)
08-30-2021 05:25 PM
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Post: #155
RE: UCF being pursued by B12
(08-26-2021 12:52 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-26-2021 12:37 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  UCF really makes sense as a football only add. That would reduce the travel and not have the downside of an underfunded and under attended basketball program (the other sports don't matter). By AAC standards UCF is mid pack in basketball, but for the Big 12 they would be the Tulane/ECU basketball problem. No other Olympic sports matter (nobody watches Tennis or women's soccer). Not sure UCF could find a suitable Olympic sports conference.

I think partial members screams "G5!!!!"

Psychologically, for national perception, I think its a horrible move. Its also an issue if there is an ultimate secession from the NCAA.

Agreed. No P5 has a "Football Only" school Needs to be all or nothing.
08-30-2021 05:58 PM
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Post: #156
RE: UCF being pursued by B12
(08-30-2021 03:16 PM)f1do Wrote:  Do you honestly think there will end up being 3 tiers?

It doesn't actually have to be 3 full fledged tiers ... the Big12 could also be in effect on a tier of it's own.

If the Big12 is included in "P5" scheduling quotas, if it ends up with a media contract with a distinct separation from the lowest P4 and distinct separation from the highest Go5, if it ends up with a CFP12 cut that is in an "contracted with QF bowls" group rather than the "not contracted with QF bowls" ... but its a secondary contract and the number work out to about half a P4 conference share ...

... and given the fact that it will remain a clear cut Power basketball conference ...

... then the reality would be it would be the tweener conference that the AAC has been aspiring to be for years now.

Quote: I estimate you are either P5 or you aren't--at least that is the tone taken with BYU as an independent.

But that was in the context of the CFP4 system, where for the conference, there were five conferences getting a roughly $60m share each (before per-school payments), and five conferences splitting a single share of roughly $70m (again, before per-school payments). Five conferences with contract affiliations to one or more NY6 bowls, and five chasing a single NY6 spot. There was a clear, sharp, easy to see divide.

Given that, it was easy to say for Independents, "well, the P5 is also the Autonomous 5, and ND is autonomous too, so ND is 'P5 level' and the others are 'Go5 level'."

But recall that back in BCS days, it was AG / Non-AQ, but the Big East was widely seen during football season as the "Big Least". It was fuzzier than the sharp, clear distinction of the current era. And even further back, it was even fuzzier, sometimes with people just flat out disagreeing about which were the major football conferences.

If the basic reality is that there is a clear top four group, one on the borderline, and a clear bottom five, then the aspiration for the AAC and MWC would be to "join" the Big12 on the borderline and form a three tier system.

OTOH, it seems better for the Big12 to be on the borderline by its own, since that makes it easier for it to be described as "P5" when speaking generally and only "Major 4" when necessary to talk about only the four elite conferences.

Even better for the Big12 would be a perception of three tiers consisting of the "Big Two", the "Medium 3" and the "Group of 5".

Quote: Were Texas and Oklahoma the only things keeping the Big 12 as a P5?

After losing Nebraska and Texas A&M? ... well, maybe. We'll see. But the remaining eight on their own were grabbing roughly the same number of OTA games as the 12 members of the AAC 2016-2019, so Texas and Oklahoma were not the only things keeping the Big12 above the Group of Five.
(This post was last modified: 08-30-2021 09:15 PM by BruceMcF.)
08-30-2021 09:10 PM
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