(08-30-2021 03:16 PM)f1do Wrote: Do you honestly think there will end up being 3 tiers?
It doesn't actually have to be 3 full fledged tiers ... the Big12 could also be in effect on a tier of it's own.
If the Big12 is included in "P5" scheduling quotas, if it ends up with a media contract with a distinct separation from the lowest P4 and distinct separation from the highest Go5, if it ends up with a CFP12 cut that is in an "contracted with QF bowls" group rather than the "not contracted with QF bowls" ... but its a secondary contract and the number work out to about half a P4 conference share ...
... and given the fact that it will remain a clear cut Power basketball conference ...
... then the reality would be it would be the tweener conference that the AAC has been aspiring to be for years now.
Quote: I estimate you are either P5 or you aren't--at least that is the tone taken with BYU as an independent.
But that was in the context of the CFP4 system, where for the conference, there were five conferences getting a roughly $60m share each (before per-school payments), and five conferences splitting a single share of roughly $70m (again, before per-school payments). Five conferences with contract affiliations to one or more NY6 bowls, and five chasing a single NY6 spot. There was a clear, sharp, easy to see divide.
Given that, it was easy to say for Independents, "well, the P5 is also the Autonomous 5, and ND is autonomous too, so ND is 'P5 level' and the others are 'Go5 level'."
But recall that back in BCS days, it was AG / Non-AQ, but the Big East was widely seen during football season as the "Big Least". It was fuzzier than the sharp, clear distinction of the current era. And even further back, it was even fuzzier, sometimes with people just flat out disagreeing about which were the major football conferences.
If the basic reality is that there is a clear top four group, one on the borderline, and a clear bottom five, then the aspiration for the AAC and MWC would be to "join" the Big12 on the borderline and
form a three tier system.
OTOH, it seems better for the Big12 to be on the borderline by its own, since that makes it easier for it to be described as "P5" when speaking generally and only "Major 4" when necessary to talk about only the four elite conferences.
Even better for the Big12 would be a perception of three tiers consisting of the "Big Two", the "Medium 3" and the "Group of 5".
Quote: Were Texas and Oklahoma the only things keeping the Big 12 as a P5?
After losing Nebraska and Texas A&M? ... well, maybe. We'll see. But the remaining eight on their own were grabbing roughly the same number of OTA games as the 12 members of the AAC 2016-2019, so Texas and Oklahoma were not the only things keeping the Big12 above the Group of Five.