B12 has to add 2 - probably Cinci and Houston, to get a champ game and enough conf games to be worth investment.

I wouldn't expect BYU unless B12 goes beyond 10.

Cincinnati and Houston would be my first choices. UCF would be next.

The B12 will need an open door policy to attract anyone, i.e. no GoR and minimal, if any, exit fees.

If smart they go big and make a splash. Big markets/cities and programs that act and spend like P5. They need content and viewers.

Houston, Memphis, Cincy, UCF, Colorado State, BYU (if more SMU/USF).

Geography wise, this works very well.

But B12 is arrogant and it has killed the conference. So they will probably add 2 and be done. It would be very short sighted. Many of the above schools would be in the upper tier of current B12 members if given the same $$ and opportunity.

(08-24-2021 01:30 PM)Wolfman Wrote:  Cincinnati and Houston would be my first choices. UCF would be next.

The B12 will need an open door policy to attract anyone, i.e. no GoR and minimal, if any, exit fees.

This list has been evolving, but at this point my order of admissions is:
1 Cincinatti
2 Houston
3 Memphis
4 UCF
5 Colorado St
5 TIE BYU (Co St brought in as partner w BYU out west)
7 USF
8 SMU
9 Rice
10 San Diego St(!)
11 New Mexico

NOT ON THE LIST:
Boise St (San Diego St is same distance, has a decent history and has 2 million more eyeballs and better recruiting territory)
Tulane (fan base is just too small and facilities too poor)
Anyone from AAC not listed above
The Service Academies (Air Force has said they don't want the invite, others too far away)

(08-24-2021 01:34 PM)TigerPete Wrote:  If smart they go big and make a splash. Big markets/cities and programs that act and spend like P5. They need content and viewers.

Houston, Memphis, Cincy, UCF, Colorado State, BYU (if more SMU/USF).

Geography wise, this works very well.

But B12 is arrogant and it has killed the conference. So they will probably add 2 and be done. It would be very short sighted. Many of the above schools would be in the upper tier of current B12 members if given the same $$ and opportunity.

That's the problem though. The Big 12 has brand value and inventory that will still be worth something...but it's tough for each individual member to enjoy that value when you over-dilute the pie such that you are now sharing revenue with 14-16 schools instead of 8-10 schools.

I also believe that it will be difficult for the Big 12 to access its full revenue potential without a new/extended grant of rights. But, will legacy Big 12 schools be willing to sign a significant grant of rights while they still hold the hope of a realignment lifeline elsewhere?

The case for San Diego St:

Same basic distance as Boise St
Above average academics for B12
Decent recent football and basketball success
Encroachment on SoCal recruitment territories
New eyeballs for B12 in SoCal
Destination trip every year for many B12 teams (San Diego in November)

I don't think it will happen, but if you made me pick between Boise or San Diego, I'm picking San Diego

If the Big XII (which would hopefully rename to match the actual number) increased to 14 or even 16 there are plenty of capable schools with sizable markets and followings.

Colorado State (Denver)
Cincinnati
Memphis
UCF (Orlando)
USF (Tampa)
Houston

Big XIV East:
Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, Memphis, West Virginia, UCF, USF

Big XIV West:
Colorado State, TTU, TCU, Baylor, OKST, KSU, KU

It may not be as good as the Big XII classic but it would be a heck of a conference to watch in football and hoops. Like I said there are a few options that could push them to 16. This conference should be able to get $10 mil per school, maybe a little more, which is better than the AAC gets and what the R8 are looking at probably anyways.

2 of SDSU, Boise, or BYU could push KU into the East in a 16 team setup so ISU doesn't get separated from everyone they used to share with.

(08-24-2021 01:44 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  The case for San Diego St:

Same basic distance as Boise St
Above average academics for B12
Decent recent football and basketball success
Encroachment on SoCal recruitment territories
New eyeballs for B12 in SoCal
Destination trip every year for many B12 teams (San Diego in November)

I don't think it will happen, but if you made me pick between Boise or San Diego, I'm picking San Diego

Plus, a new football stadium and much better basketball history and program.

I tend to believe that the Big 12's chances of success are much better to go head-to-head with the PAC than to try to take on the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC.

Boise State v. TCU, Houston v. Kansas State, BYU v. WVU, and San Diego State v. Oklahoma State can compete with most of the matchups that the PAC 12 can put together.

How would Cincinnati v. TCU fare against Ohio State-Maryland or Michigan State-Nebraska?
Or, UCF v. WVU compared to Florida State-Louisville or Miami-Pitt?
Or, Memphis v. Kansas State versus Tennessee-Florida or even Vandy-Florida?

Move to 12

Add
BYU
Cincinnati
Memphis
Houston

Lean into the basketball identity that the league will have. Big 12 teams need to be able to individually bid out their tier 3 rights again. That will help schools like Kansas and wvu close the revenue gap a bit.

Jackson

I have been reading these posts and thinking about reputation, location and value and also relevancy and at the same time build the Big 12 where it can distance itself from the ACC and MW.

Big 12

East: Baylor, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, Memphis, Temple, and West Virginia.

West: Air Force, Colorado State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, SMU, TCU, and Texas Tech.


BYU will remain Independent along with Army and Notre Dame.

PAC 12 will add Boise State, San Diego State and UNLV and have three Divisions.

The AAC adds Appalachian State, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, and Massachusetts, added to East Carolina, Navy, and South Florida in the eastern division and UAB, Marshall, Louisiana Tech, and Troy added to Tulane and *Wichita State in the western division.

The Mountain West adds Tulsa, North Texas, Rice, New Mexico State, UTEP, UTSA and Texas State in the east and the Western Division the remaining original Mountain West teams.

The remaining CUSA and Sun Belt teams merge along with Liberty, Jacksonville State and Eastern Kentucky from the ASUN into the New Sun Belt Conference.


`

They'll add 2 at most and I think the odds of sitting at 8 are just as high as going to 10. Reason they won't go bigger is the same reason the AAC has been sitting at 11 for this long. No one they can add makes them more money, and everyone they could add will still be there begging for the invite down the road if they actually have to add them. AAC fans fundamentally understand this when it comes to why the league stays at 11, but then tosses it aside when it comes to the B12 thinking they are going to for some reason add a bunch of schools that would cost them short term money for some long term strategy. Same as the top of the AAC doesn't care about a "long term" AAC strategy and just wants to maximize money and then get out that's what the B12 teams are looking at doing.

They'll add four - and maybe six if BYU wants in.

The American must be killed if I'm the Big XII. Adding Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis, and a Florida school will do the trick.

If BYU comes along, then tack on a strong MW school like CSU to even it out.

(08-24-2021 02:26 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  They'll add four - and maybe six if BYU wants in.

The American must be killed if I'm the Big XII. Adding Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis, and a Florida school will do the trick.

If BYU comes along, then tack on a strong MW school like CSU to even it out.

That would hurt the AAC big time....but I don't know that it kills off the AAC as a contender for an expanded CFP bid. Does it clear a path for Temple, USF, or SMU to steal a bid with a good season?

Imagine Coastal Carolina, Appalachian State, or Louisiana, but with real NIL resources and strong markets like Dallas, Tampa and Philadelphia...and ESPN in their corner...

(08-24-2021 02:45 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(08-24-2021 02:26 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  They'll add four - and maybe six if BYU wants in.

The American must be killed if I'm the Big XII. Adding Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis, and a Florida school will do the trick.

If BYU comes along, then tack on a strong MW school like CSU to even it out.

That would hurt the AAC big time....but I don't know that it kills off the AAC as a contender for an expanded CFP bid. Does it clear a path for Temple, USF, or SMU to steal a bid with a good season?

Imagine Coastal Carolina, Appalachian State, or Louisiana, but with real NIL resources and strong markets like Dallas, Tampa and Philadelphia...and ESPN in their corner...

The AAC would certainly be killed off. They become more comparable to the Sun Belt without their Big 4 just located in "markets". I'm almost 100% I saw on this board before that ESPN can renegotiate their contract with the AAC if Houston or Cincy leave. You also remove UCF and Memphis and what is that conference honestly worth? Besides Coastal has had ONE good season since joining the Belt. Everyone needs to calm down when talking about them...

2 wasn't a choice but it seems to be the most logical IMHO. It doesn't begin to dilute the TV deal. I think they'll go after BYU and Cincinnati. If BYU doesn't work out it'll be Houston and Cincinnati. If they go to 4 and BYU isn't part of it I think the best move is Cincy, Houston, UCF and USF.

I have always been a proponent of them becoming the Big 16 - you can create a boatload of stability and using a pod system create natural rivalries and interesting games during regular season.

CENTRAL
KU, KSU, ISU, OSU

EAST
Cinci, WV, UCF, USF

SOUTH
Memphis, Baylor, Houston, SMU

WEST
BYU, Co State, Tex Tech, TCU

You play home and home in basketball then one game vs rest of conf = 18 team conf sched
In fball, you play the 3 other teams in your pod, then regularly play a neighboring pod
and 1 game each against other pods = 9 game conf season with rivalry games and limited travel impact

Make an argument there is now with P5 conferences a team that is left out that based on history and school size, that should be in?

(08-24-2021 04:25 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  I have always been a proponent of them becoming the Big 16 - you can create a boatload of stability and using a pod system create natural rivalries and interesting games during regular season.

CENTRAL
KU, KSU, ISU, OSU

EAST
Cinci, WV, UCF, USF

SOUTH
Memphis, Baylor, Houston, SMU

WEST
BYU, Co State, Tex Tech, TCU

You play home and home in basketball then one game vs rest of conf = 18 team conf sched
In fball, you play the 3 other teams in your pod, then regularly play a neighboring pod
and 1 game each against other pods = 9 game conf season with rivalry games and limited travel impact

Make an argument there is now with P5 conferences a team that is left out that based on history and school size, that should be in?

I voted for and expansion of "8 teams" and I believe you've got the same model I had in mind. The Big XVI will want to monopolize the remaining "$ Million" games. By grabbing BYU, Houston, UCF, USF, UC, Memphis, SMU and CSU, they do that and keep from isolating anyone team. CSU become the bridge for BYU, UC and Memphis bridge WVU while UCF and USF make for travel partners. It's a conference filled with Large Schools in Big Cities and some well known as well as fast rising brands. It is a conference made for TV and reginal rivalries.

I'd add BYU and stop where I the Big 12. If I had to take 10 for contractual needs, then I'd take a school with strong basketball. Cincinnati would be my first choice then Memphis followed by Houston in that order.

Start with Houston and SMU. Solidify your hold on the DFW Metroplex and Greater Houston where the bulk of the alumni in the conference currently reside.

Don't be worried about SMU's lack of alumni/attendance figures. It will go up tens of thousands when they are no longer playing the deaf and the blind. They will become the Northwestern of the Big 12 where every home football game features 10K+ fans from the visiting team who either reside in DFW or want a weekend getaway in a big city.

(08-24-2021 02:13 PM)Jackson1011 Wrote:  Move to 12

Add
BYU
Cincinnati
Memphis
Houston

Lean into the basketball identity that the league will have. Big 12 teams need to be able to individually bid out their tier 3 rights again. That will help schools like Kansas and wvu close the revenue gap a bit.

Jackson

That would be a really solid football league and perhaps one of the top 2 or three basketball leagues in the nation.