(08-19-2021 09:21 PM)RutgersMike Wrote:  Any chance the Big12 goes to 14 with Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis,UCF, USF and Temple?

It depends on media valuations for the remaining 8 vs those schools.

I would think they'd run into diminishing returns at that point.

Temple would be the most unlikely.

Even further than WVU
Similar football upside to SMU, Tulane who fit the footprint better and are culturally/historically more tied to the league or similar leagues

But never say never. If the valuations are right it makes sense to take the top teams from a league competing for a playoff spot, split into large divisions, and not cannibalize W/L records.

Along the lines of Wichita State, what other central time zone teams or mountain time zone teams might make sense as a FB only member for the AAC or MWC?

(08-19-2021 10:20 PM)1845 Bear Wrote:  Along the lines of Wichita State, what other central time zone teams or mountain time zone teams might make sense as a FB only member for the AAC or MWC?

If the Western Independents are BYU and NMSU, and BYU wouldn't take the offer, and NMSU wouldn't get the offer, then the challenge with a football-only member as a long term solution is they have to have an Olympic sports home where they are happy being a football-only member in the AAC or MWC.

(08-19-2021 06:54 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-19-2021 03:06 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(08-19-2021 02:56 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-19-2021 12:48 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-19-2021 11:02 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The AAC will not fall apart completely. Worst case scenario is it ends up looking something like C-USA 2.0 where it was probably the consistently second best non-power football conference and a 1-2 bid basketball league with a TV deal in the 1-2 million a year range. That would absolutely suck for the teams left behind in it, but considering the other options and the amount of buyout money that would remain it's still the one most would take. Maybe Navy goes back independent, maybe Wichita goes somewhere else, maybe if SMU/Houston were left out they consider the MWC (I actually doubt this and think both would rather stay in an east coast conference). However, Temple isn't going Indy, I've seen people throw out ECU going Indy and I promise you that's never happening.

I dont know---the AAC that would emerge would be such a poor athletic conference---especially in comparison to the current AAC or even the MW---the MW might be the only alternative for a school like Houston that has invested over a quarter of billion dollars in athletics facilities over the last 5 to 10 years. If the MW adds Houston and SMU (perhaps even Wichita goes into that package as well)--the Mountain West would be reasonably similar to the current AAC in terms of academics, football quality, and basketball quality. Otherwise, Houston and SMU either have to agree to be in a horrific football/basketball conference with UMass, Rice, and Buffalo---or they have to swallow their academic pride and conference with schools like AppSt, Marshall, and LaTech. The MW might look pretty good once the SMU and Houston administrations take a good hard look at how bad any resulting AAC rebuild is likely to look.

That said---I agree the AAC will survive. I just question how many of its current members will be part of it. It could easily end up as a Sunbelt shaped conference that stretches from Rice/Tulsa/NTexas /Tulane in the west to the Atlantic Coast in the east.

So yeah, essentially the 2020's version of C-USA 2.0. The AAC under even the worst of worst case scenarios will be able to add whatever Sun-Belt/C-USA teams they want and be able to cobble together the likely second best non-power football conference and probably a 1 bid but occasional 2 bid basketball conference. That's the worst case but I don't think that's likely. I don't see the B12 adding 4 or more AAC teams, which is what it would take to get anywhere close to this worst case scenario. I think the most likely scenario is the AAC loses 2 or fewer teams and adds no one because as has long been discussed none of the people who would say yes add value and the league at 9 or 10 teams works just fine.

[/u]

For what it's worth, I agree. The AAC will lose two teams at most. But we all may be surprised when it actually happens.

*** SMUstang ***

IF the AAC only loses two---there is ONE thing I would advise the AAC to do. Seeing how simply losing 4 could completely end the conferences ability to be a strong football and basketball conference---Id suggest an immediate 4 to 6 team poach of the top of the A-10. Then I'd add two full members and 2 football only members to the AAC. The conference needs depth. Despite my skepticism on UAB---add UAB and Buffalo. Those are the only programs that offfer quality academics with decent football and decent basketball. Those are the 2 all-sports additions. AppSt and LaTech get added as football only adds. If either balks at the "football only" addition---offer their slot to Marshall. If they ever spend enough to develop consistent quality basketball---the AAC will revisit the "football only" relationship.

Now you have a conference that will not crumble or fall from the top of the G5 if it gets raided again.

The basketball part I don't completely disagree with, but the football part makes zero sense. Every one of those teams you listed in football would join later if the AAC got raided further, and none of them would increase the per team value of the TV deal. "Depth" doesn't matter, what matters is what makes the most financial sense. How we know none of those teams make financial sense is the AAC has been sitting at 11 and not given serious consideration to adding any of them. The "depth" thing only makes sense if you truly believe there's a number the AAC could get raided down to where the Sun-Belt/C-USA schools wouldn't join, and I'd argue that number doesn't exist if the conference isn't dissolved, same as there's no number the B12 could get raided down to that AAC/MWC schools wouldn't join.

(08-19-2021 10:20 PM)1845 Bear Wrote:  Along the lines of Wichita State, what other central time zone teams or mountain time zone teams might make sense as a FB only member for the AAC or MWC?

I meant to say non-FB member...

Curious who’s a potential fit that is a high quality hoops program

(08-20-2021 07:38 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-19-2021 06:54 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-19-2021 03:06 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(08-19-2021 02:56 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-19-2021 12:48 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I dont know---the AAC that would emerge would be such a poor athletic conference---especially in comparison to the current AAC or even the MW---the MW might be the only alternative for a school like Houston that has invested over a quarter of billion dollars in athletics facilities over the last 5 to 10 years. If the MW adds Houston and SMU (perhaps even Wichita goes into that package as well)--the Mountain West would be reasonably similar to the current AAC in terms of academics, football quality, and basketball quality. Otherwise, Houston and SMU either have to agree to be in a horrific football/basketball conference with UMass, Rice, and Buffalo---or they have to swallow their academic pride and conference with schools like AppSt, Marshall, and LaTech. The MW might look pretty good once the SMU and Houston administrations take a good hard look at how bad any resulting AAC rebuild is likely to look.

That said---I agree the AAC will survive. I just question how many of its current members will be part of it. It could easily end up as a Sunbelt shaped conference that stretches from Rice/Tulsa/NTexas /Tulane in the west to the Atlantic Coast in the east.

So yeah, essentially the 2020's version of C-USA 2.0. The AAC under even the worst of worst case scenarios will be able to add whatever Sun-Belt/C-USA teams they want and be able to cobble together the likely second best non-power football conference and probably a 1 bid but occasional 2 bid basketball conference. That's the worst case but I don't think that's likely. I don't see the B12 adding 4 or more AAC teams, which is what it would take to get anywhere close to this worst case scenario. I think the most likely scenario is the AAC loses 2 or fewer teams and adds no one because as has long been discussed none of the people who would say yes add value and the league at 9 or 10 teams works just fine.

[/u]

For what it's worth, I agree. The AAC will lose two teams at most. But we all may be surprised when it actually happens.

*** SMUstang ***

IF the AAC only loses two---there is ONE thing I would advise the AAC to do. Seeing how simply losing 4 could completely end the conferences ability to be a strong football and basketball conference---Id suggest an immediate 4 to 6 team poach of the top of the A-10. Then I'd add two full members and 2 football only members to the AAC. The conference needs depth. Despite my skepticism on UAB---add UAB and Buffalo. Those are the only programs that offfer quality academics with decent football and decent basketball. Those are the 2 all-sports additions. AppSt and LaTech get added as football only adds. If either balks at the "football only" addition---offer their slot to Marshall. If they ever spend enough to develop consistent quality basketball---the AAC will revisit the "football only" relationship.

Now you have a conference that will not crumble or fall from the top of the G5 if it gets raided again.

The basketball part I don't completely disagree with, but the football part makes zero sense. Every one of those teams you listed in football would join later if the AAC got raided further, and none of them would increase the per team value of the TV deal. "Depth" doesn't matter, what matters is what makes the most financial sense. How we know none of those teams make financial sense is the AAC has been sitting at 11 and not given serious consideration to adding any of them. The "depth" thing only makes sense if you truly believe there's a number the AAC could get raided down to where the Sun-Belt/C-USA schools wouldn't join, and I'd argue that number doesn't exist if the conference isn't dissolved, same as there's no number the B12 could get raided down to that AAC/MWC schools wouldn't join.

Well—the main reason I think we need depth on the football side is simple. If we lose just two—we lose two of our best. Buffalo and UAB are the only two programs that have good academics, decent football, and decent basketball—-but neither of those programs will come anywhere close to replacing the football programs lost. We need programs that can win OOC games—-and the poachable top football programs that are available are not impressive academic schools and have generally awful basketball. Thus, you take two in order to attempt to replace the football quality lost—but only as “football only” schools. That creates a degree of separation between the academics of “all sports” members and “football only” members as well as preventing basketball from being drug down by 2 more poor performing basketball programs. Bottom line—the football side needs a couple of quality programs that will produce OOC wins.

(08-20-2021 10:42 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 07:38 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-19-2021 06:54 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-19-2021 03:06 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(08-19-2021 02:56 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  So yeah, essentially the 2020's version of C-USA 2.0. The AAC under even the worst of worst case scenarios will be able to add whatever Sun-Belt/C-USA teams they want and be able to cobble together the likely second best non-power football conference and probably a 1 bid but occasional 2 bid basketball conference. That's the worst case but I don't think that's likely. I don't see the B12 adding 4 or more AAC teams, which is what it would take to get anywhere close to this worst case scenario. I think the most likely scenario is the AAC loses 2 or fewer teams and adds no one because as has long been discussed none of the people who would say yes add value and the league at 9 or 10 teams works just fine.

[/u]

For what it's worth, I agree. The AAC will lose two teams at most. But we all may be surprised when it actually happens.

*** SMUstang ***

IF the AAC only loses two---there is ONE thing I would advise the AAC to do. Seeing how simply losing 4 could completely end the conferences ability to be a strong football and basketball conference---Id suggest an immediate 4 to 6 team poach of the top of the A-10. Then I'd add two full members and 2 football only members to the AAC. The conference needs depth. Despite my skepticism on UAB---add UAB and Buffalo. Those are the only programs that offfer quality academics with decent football and decent basketball. Those are the 2 all-sports additions. AppSt and LaTech get added as football only adds. If either balks at the "football only" addition---offer their slot to Marshall. If they ever spend enough to develop consistent quality basketball---the AAC will revisit the "football only" relationship.

Now you have a conference that will not crumble or fall from the top of the G5 if it gets raided again.

The basketball part I don't completely disagree with, but the football part makes zero sense. Every one of those teams you listed in football would join later if the AAC got raided further, and none of them would increase the per team value of the TV deal. "Depth" doesn't matter, what matters is what makes the most financial sense. How we know none of those teams make financial sense is the AAC has been sitting at 11 and not given serious consideration to adding any of them. The "depth" thing only makes sense if you truly believe there's a number the AAC could get raided down to where the Sun-Belt/C-USA schools wouldn't join, and I'd argue that number doesn't exist if the conference isn't dissolved, same as there's no number the B12 could get raided down to that AAC/MWC schools wouldn't join.

Well—the main reason I think we need depth on the football side is simple. If we lose just two—we lose two of our best. Buffalo and UAB are the only two programs that have good academics, decent football, and decent basketball—-but neither of those programs will come anywhere close to replacing the football programs lost. We need programs that can win OOC games—-and the poachable top football programs that are available are not impressive academic schools and have generally awful basketball. Thus, you take two in order to attempt to replace the football quality lost—but only as “football only” schools. That creates a degree of separation between the academics of “all sports” members and “football only” members as well as preventing basketball from being drug down by 2 more poor performing basketball programs. Bottom line—the football side needs a couple of quality programs that will produce OOC wins.

Yeah, if the AAC loses 2 it's going to be 2 of the best programs, but I see no way adding that many programs doesn't dilute the payout per school considerably. I mean sure if ESPN wants to keep the per team revenue the same for each of those additions go for it, but I'm extremely skeptical. Then you further split the CFP money, tournament credits, and other distributions. For me if the AAC were to drop to 9 I wouldn't add anyone unless any of the same usual suspects were interested that aren't now and wouldn't be then. If I were going to add anyone I'd personally try to do something like add App FB only and VCU all sports and make a combined 1 quality addition, but I still suspect that would be a lesser payout per school than just staying at 9.

(08-20-2021 11:54 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 10:42 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 07:38 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-19-2021 06:54 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-19-2021 03:06 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  [/u]

For what it's worth, I agree. The AAC will lose two teams at most. But we all may be surprised when it actually happens.

*** SMUstang ***

IF the AAC only loses two---there is ONE thing I would advise the AAC to do. Seeing how simply losing 4 could completely end the conferences ability to be a strong football and basketball conference---Id suggest an immediate 4 to 6 team poach of the top of the A-10. Then I'd add two full members and 2 football only members to the AAC. The conference needs depth. Despite my skepticism on UAB---add UAB and Buffalo. Those are the only programs that offfer quality academics with decent football and decent basketball. Those are the 2 all-sports additions. AppSt and LaTech get added as football only adds. If either balks at the "football only" addition---offer their slot to Marshall. If they ever spend enough to develop consistent quality basketball---the AAC will revisit the "football only" relationship.

Now you have a conference that will not crumble or fall from the top of the G5 if it gets raided again.

The basketball part I don't completely disagree with, but the football part makes zero sense. Every one of those teams you listed in football would join later if the AAC got raided further, and none of them would increase the per team value of the TV deal. "Depth" doesn't matter, what matters is what makes the most financial sense. How we know none of those teams make financial sense is the AAC has been sitting at 11 and not given serious consideration to adding any of them. The "depth" thing only makes sense if you truly believe there's a number the AAC could get raided down to where the Sun-Belt/C-USA schools wouldn't join, and I'd argue that number doesn't exist if the conference isn't dissolved, same as there's no number the B12 could get raided down to that AAC/MWC schools wouldn't join.

Well—the main reason I think we need depth on the football side is simple. If we lose just two—we lose two of our best. Buffalo and UAB are the only two programs that have good academics, decent football, and decent basketball—-but neither of those programs will come anywhere close to replacing the football programs lost. We need programs that can win OOC games—-and the poachable top football programs that are available are not impressive academic schools and have generally awful basketball. Thus, you take two in order to attempt to replace the football quality lost—but only as “football only” schools. That creates a degree of separation between the academics of “all sports” members and “football only” members as well as preventing basketball from being drug down by 2 more poor performing basketball programs. Bottom line—the football side needs a couple of quality programs that will produce OOC wins.

Yeah, if the AAC loses 2 it's going to be 2 of the best programs, but I see no way adding that many programs doesn't dilute the payout per school considerably. I mean sure if ESPN wants to keep the per team revenue the same for each of those additions go for it, but I'm extremely skeptical. Then you further split the CFP money, tournament credits, and other distributions. For me if the AAC were to drop to 9 I wouldn't add anyone unless any of the same usual suspects were interested that aren't now and wouldn't be then. If I were going to add anyone I'd personally try to do something like add App FB only and VCU all sports and make a combined 1 quality addition, but I still suspect that would be a lesser payout per school than just staying at 9.

I understand (and agree with you) regarding the "more schools the less cash each gets" concern. But if Memphis gets left behind in the AAC, I would want the league to add some programs. And if the AAC loses two (let's say Houston and Cincy), I would be fine with the league adding four. My choices for those four might be this: UAB, Marshall and Old Dominion for all sports and a combo of VCU/App State (assuming App could find a home for its other sports). Not sure VCU would want to leave the A10. If not, and for hoops purposes, I would probably be fine with Buffalo or UMass (both of which play some quality basketball).

Losing two and staying pat ... not sure that will work. Simply not enough quality in the two major sports at that point.

(08-20-2021 01:41 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 11:54 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 10:42 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 07:38 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-19-2021 06:54 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  IF the AAC only loses two---there is ONE thing I would advise the AAC to do. Seeing how simply losing 4 could completely end the conferences ability to be a strong football and basketball conference---Id suggest an immediate 4 to 6 team poach of the top of the A-10. Then I'd add two full members and 2 football only members to the AAC. The conference needs depth. Despite my skepticism on UAB---add UAB and Buffalo. Those are the only programs that offfer quality academics with decent football and decent basketball. Those are the 2 all-sports additions. AppSt and LaTech get added as football only adds. If either balks at the "football only" addition---offer their slot to Marshall. If they ever spend enough to develop consistent quality basketball---the AAC will revisit the "football only" relationship.

Now you have a conference that will not crumble or fall from the top of the G5 if it gets raided again.

The basketball part I don't completely disagree with, but the football part makes zero sense. Every one of those teams you listed in football would join later if the AAC got raided further, and none of them would increase the per team value of the TV deal. "Depth" doesn't matter, what matters is what makes the most financial sense. How we know none of those teams make financial sense is the AAC has been sitting at 11 and not given serious consideration to adding any of them. The "depth" thing only makes sense if you truly believe there's a number the AAC could get raided down to where the Sun-Belt/C-USA schools wouldn't join, and I'd argue that number doesn't exist if the conference isn't dissolved, same as there's no number the B12 could get raided down to that AAC/MWC schools wouldn't join.

Well—the main reason I think we need depth on the football side is simple. If we lose just two—we lose two of our best. Buffalo and UAB are the only two programs that have good academics, decent football, and decent basketball—-but neither of those programs will come anywhere close to replacing the football programs lost. We need programs that can win OOC games—-and the poachable top football programs that are available are not impressive academic schools and have generally awful basketball. Thus, you take two in order to attempt to replace the football quality lost—but only as “football only” schools. That creates a degree of separation between the academics of “all sports” members and “football only” members as well as preventing basketball from being drug down by 2 more poor performing basketball programs. Bottom line—the football side needs a couple of quality programs that will produce OOC wins.

Yeah, if the AAC loses 2 it's going to be 2 of the best programs, but I see no way adding that many programs doesn't dilute the payout per school considerably. I mean sure if ESPN wants to keep the per team revenue the same for each of those additions go for it, but I'm extremely skeptical. Then you further split the CFP money, tournament credits, and other distributions. For me if the AAC were to drop to 9 I wouldn't add anyone unless any of the same usual suspects were interested that aren't now and wouldn't be then. If I were going to add anyone I'd personally try to do something like add App FB only and VCU all sports and make a combined 1 quality addition, but I still suspect that would be a lesser payout per school than just staying at 9.

I understand (and agree with you) regarding the "more schools the less cash each gets" concern. But if Memphis gets left behind in the AAC, I would want the league to add some programs. And if the AAC loses two (let's say Houston and Cincy), I would be fine with the league adding four. My choices for those four might be this: UAB, Marshall and Old Dominion for all sports and a combo of VCU/App State (assuming App could find a home for its other sports). Not sure VCU would want to leave the A10. If not, and for hoops purposes, I would probably be fine with Buffalo or UMass (both of which play some quality basketball).

Losing two and staying pat ... not sure that will work. Simply not enough quality in the two major sports at that point.

4 wouldn't make sense, as if we lost 2 we'd be down to 9 teams and there's no reason to go to 13. Honestly don't think there is a reason to even go to 12. The Sun-Belt functions fine with 10 schools. At 9 you could just play an 8 game round robin conference schedule in football and then the top 2 play a championship game. Could add 1 team and have 2 5 team divisions also, but the only semi realistic option I think would be worth it would be the App/VCU combo. I just flat out can't ever fully trust UAB after what their BOT did, ODU is too much of a long term project if you were only adding 1, UMASS is just a no their basketball doesn't come close to making up for their football, and I don't really see any the programs you are listing making the league better or more valuable other than maybe the App/VCU combo.

(08-20-2021 02:01 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 01:41 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 11:54 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 10:42 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 07:38 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The basketball part I don't completely disagree with, but the football part makes zero sense. Every one of those teams you listed in football would join later if the AAC got raided further, and none of them would increase the per team value of the TV deal. "Depth" doesn't matter, what matters is what makes the most financial sense. How we know none of those teams make financial sense is the AAC has been sitting at 11 and not given serious consideration to adding any of them. The "depth" thing only makes sense if you truly believe there's a number the AAC could get raided down to where the Sun-Belt/C-USA schools wouldn't join, and I'd argue that number doesn't exist if the conference isn't dissolved, same as there's no number the B12 could get raided down to that AAC/MWC schools wouldn't join.

Well—the main reason I think we need depth on the football side is simple. If we lose just two—we lose two of our best. Buffalo and UAB are the only two programs that have good academics, decent football, and decent basketball—-but neither of those programs will come anywhere close to replacing the football programs lost. We need programs that can win OOC games—-and the poachable top football programs that are available are not impressive academic schools and have generally awful basketball. Thus, you take two in order to attempt to replace the football quality lost—but only as “football only” schools. That creates a degree of separation between the academics of “all sports” members and “football only” members as well as preventing basketball from being drug down by 2 more poor performing basketball programs. Bottom line—the football side needs a couple of quality programs that will produce OOC wins.

Yeah, if the AAC loses 2 it's going to be 2 of the best programs, but I see no way adding that many programs doesn't dilute the payout per school considerably. I mean sure if ESPN wants to keep the per team revenue the same for each of those additions go for it, but I'm extremely skeptical. Then you further split the CFP money, tournament credits, and other distributions. For me if the AAC were to drop to 9 I wouldn't add anyone unless any of the same usual suspects were interested that aren't now and wouldn't be then. If I were going to add anyone I'd personally try to do something like add App FB only and VCU all sports and make a combined 1 quality addition, but I still suspect that would be a lesser payout per school than just staying at 9.

I understand (and agree with you) regarding the "more schools the less cash each gets" concern. But if Memphis gets left behind in the AAC, I would want the league to add some programs. And if the AAC loses two (let's say Houston and Cincy), I would be fine with the league adding four. My choices for those four might be this: UAB, Marshall and Old Dominion for all sports and a combo of VCU/App State (assuming App could find a home for its other sports). Not sure VCU would want to leave the A10. If not, and for hoops purposes, I would probably be fine with Buffalo or UMass (both of which play some quality basketball).

Losing two and staying pat ... not sure that will work. Simply not enough quality in the two major sports at that point.

4 wouldn't make sense, as if we lost 2 we'd be down to 9 teams and there's no reason to go to 13. Honestly don't think there is a reason to even go to 12. The Sun-Belt functions fine with 10 schools. At 9 you could just play an 8 game round robin conference schedule in football and then the top 2 play a championship game. Could add 1 team and have 2 5 team divisions also, but the only semi realistic option I think would be worth it would be the App/VCU combo. I just flat out can't ever fully trust UAB after what their BOT did, ODU is too much of a long term project if you were only adding 1, UMASS is just a no their basketball doesn't come close to making up for their football, and I don't really see any the programs you are listing making the league better or more valuable other than maybe the App/VCU combo.

10--12---14--16----the difference in revenue will be negligible for a rebuilt AAC without its top 2 to 4 teams. I just dont think its going to matter very much. I suspect you're looking at probably 1 to 2 million a year regardless of who you add or how many you add. Football wont be top of the G5 regardless of what you do or who you add (MW will be tops) and basketball will be a one bid league (basketball can’t be fixed). Why is anyone going to pay 4 to 7 million a year for that? The answer is they arent.

(08-20-2021 02:26 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 02:01 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 01:41 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 11:54 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 10:42 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Well—the main reason I think we need depth on the football side is simple. If we lose just two—we lose two of our best. Buffalo and UAB are the only two programs that have good academics, decent football, and decent basketball—-but neither of those programs will come anywhere close to replacing the football programs lost. We need programs that can win OOC games—-and the poachable top football programs that are available are not impressive academic schools and have generally awful basketball. Thus, you take two in order to attempt to replace the football quality lost—but only as “football only” schools. That creates a degree of separation between the academics of “all sports” members and “football only” members as well as preventing basketball from being drug down by 2 more poor performing basketball programs. Bottom line—the football side needs a couple of quality programs that will produce OOC wins.

Yeah, if the AAC loses 2 it's going to be 2 of the best programs, but I see no way adding that many programs doesn't dilute the payout per school considerably. I mean sure if ESPN wants to keep the per team revenue the same for each of those additions go for it, but I'm extremely skeptical. Then you further split the CFP money, tournament credits, and other distributions. For me if the AAC were to drop to 9 I wouldn't add anyone unless any of the same usual suspects were interested that aren't now and wouldn't be then. If I were going to add anyone I'd personally try to do something like add App FB only and VCU all sports and make a combined 1 quality addition, but I still suspect that would be a lesser payout per school than just staying at 9.

I understand (and agree with you) regarding the "more schools the less cash each gets" concern. But if Memphis gets left behind in the AAC, I would want the league to add some programs. And if the AAC loses two (let's say Houston and Cincy), I would be fine with the league adding four. My choices for those four might be this: UAB, Marshall and Old Dominion for all sports and a combo of VCU/App State (assuming App could find a home for its other sports). Not sure VCU would want to leave the A10. If not, and for hoops purposes, I would probably be fine with Buffalo or UMass (both of which play some quality basketball).

Losing two and staying pat ... not sure that will work. Simply not enough quality in the two major sports at that point.

4 wouldn't make sense, as if we lost 2 we'd be down to 9 teams and there's no reason to go to 13. Honestly don't think there is a reason to even go to 12. The Sun-Belt functions fine with 10 schools. At 9 you could just play an 8 game round robin conference schedule in football and then the top 2 play a championship game. Could add 1 team and have 2 5 team divisions also, but the only semi realistic option I think would be worth it would be the App/VCU combo. I just flat out can't ever fully trust UAB after what their BOT did, ODU is too much of a long term project if you were only adding 1, UMASS is just a no their basketball doesn't come close to making up for their football, and I don't really see any the programs you are listing making the league better or more valuable other than maybe the App/VCU combo.

10--12---14--16----the difference in revenue will be negligible for a rebuilt AAC without its top 2 to 4 teams. Its just dont think its going to matter very much. I suspect you're looking at probably 1 to 2 million a year regardless of who you add or how many you add. Football wont be top of the G5 regardless of what you do (MW will be tops) and basketball will be a one bid league. Why is anyone going to pay 4 to 7 million a year for that? The answer is they arent.

Ehh if the AAC lost lets just say only Cincy and Houston I don't think the leagues value is dropping that far and that league is still right on par with the MWC just not ahead of it anymore. I'd agree with you on 4, but any combination of 2 teams alone leaves 2 programs that have made the access bowl in very recent history while no other conference has had a second team make it.

(08-20-2021 02:01 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 01:41 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 11:54 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 10:42 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 07:38 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The basketball part I don't completely disagree with, but the football part makes zero sense. Every one of those teams you listed in football would join later if the AAC got raided further, and none of them would increase the per team value of the TV deal. "Depth" doesn't matter, what matters is what makes the most financial sense. How we know none of those teams make financial sense is the AAC has been sitting at 11 and not given serious consideration to adding any of them. The "depth" thing only makes sense if you truly believe there's a number the AAC could get raided down to where the Sun-Belt/C-USA schools wouldn't join, and I'd argue that number doesn't exist if the conference isn't dissolved, same as there's no number the B12 could get raided down to that AAC/MWC schools wouldn't join.

Well—the main reason I think we need depth on the football side is simple. If we lose just two—we lose two of our best. Buffalo and UAB are the only two programs that have good academics, decent football, and decent basketball—-but neither of those programs will come anywhere close to replacing the football programs lost. We need programs that can win OOC games—-and the poachable top football programs that are available are not impressive academic schools and have generally awful basketball. Thus, you take two in order to attempt to replace the football quality lost—but only as “football only” schools. That creates a degree of separation between the academics of “all sports” members and “football only” members as well as preventing basketball from being drug down by 2 more poor performing basketball programs. Bottom line—the football side needs a couple of quality programs that will produce OOC wins.

Yeah, if the AAC loses 2 it's going to be 2 of the best programs, but I see no way adding that many programs doesn't dilute the payout per school considerably. I mean sure if ESPN wants to keep the per team revenue the same for each of those additions go for it, but I'm extremely skeptical. Then you further split the CFP money, tournament credits, and other distributions. For me if the AAC were to drop to 9 I wouldn't add anyone unless any of the same usual suspects were interested that aren't now and wouldn't be then. If I were going to add anyone I'd personally try to do something like add App FB only and VCU all sports and make a combined 1 quality addition, but I still suspect that would be a lesser payout per school than just staying at 9.

I understand (and agree with you) regarding the "more schools the less cash each gets" concern. But if Memphis gets left behind in the AAC, I would want the league to add some programs. And if the AAC loses two (let's say Houston and Cincy), I would be fine with the league adding four. My choices for those four might be this: UAB, Marshall and Old Dominion for all sports and a combo of VCU/App State (assuming App could find a home for its other sports). Not sure VCU would want to leave the A10. If not, and for hoops purposes, I would probably be fine with Buffalo or UMass (both of which play some quality basketball).

Losing two and staying pat ... not sure that will work. Simply not enough quality in the two major sports at that point.

4 wouldn't make sense, as if we lost 2 we'd be down to 9 teams and there's no reason to go to 13. Honestly don't think there is a reason to even go to 12. The Sun-Belt functions fine with 10 schools. At 9 you could just play an 8 game round robin conference schedule in football and then the top 2 play a championship game. Could add 1 team and have 2 5 team divisions also, but the only semi realistic option I think would be worth it would be the App/VCU combo. I just flat out can't ever fully trust UAB after what their BOT did, ODU is too much of a long term project if you were only adding 1, UMASS is just a no their basketball doesn't come close to making up for their football, and I don't really see any the programs you are listing making the league better or more valuable other than maybe the App/VCU combo.

You're probably correct. And I see the practical considerations. I'm simply being selfish. Because if Cincy and Houston go to the Big 12, Memphis hoops could be harmed hugely. And that is why I would want UAB and/or VCU and/or UMass. Those are three quality basketball programs.

Any future AAC without UC and UH (in this hypothetical) will need UCF, Navy and SMU to be strong in football, Memphis, Temple and Wichita strong in hoops and ECU and Tulane strong in baseball.

The bottom line: If the AAC loses UC and UH only ... it will still be a far less attractive league whoever it adds. I'm a Cincy fan and I realize that sounds arrogant of me. But it's the reality.

And if the AAC loses UM, UC, UH and UCF ... that will be a monster body blow.

(08-20-2021 02:52 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Ehh if the AAC lost lets just say only Cincy and Houston I don't think the leagues value is dropping that far and that league is still right on par with the MWC just not ahead of it anymore.

I don't know how far it's dropping, but if it's just Cincy and Houston, you add the one school that makes sure that Navy is happy to stay in the new five school AAC West -- probably Rice -- and stick with 10.

If those are leaving in 2023 and it's up in the air whether another one or two are going to be leaving in 2025, that only reinforces the incentive to only add one and leave more maneuvering room ... avoiding the mistake that CUSA made which left them with an awkward 14 school alignment.

Quote: I'd agree with you on 4, but any combination of 2 teams alone leaves 2 programs that have made the access bowl in very recent history while no other conference has had a second team make it.

If the top six are 3/4 of the value, losing two of them is losing 1/4 of the value ... more if the conference stays at 9, because of the bottlenecking of the weekly inventory of games. Losing 1/4 of the value from 11 and spreading it around 10 is 83% of the original value, which would still leave the AAC appreciably ahead of the MWC, and likely grabbing the 6th conference spot in a CFP12 a majority of the time ... say four years out of six on a six year cycle.

(08-16-2021 03:01 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-16-2021 01:46 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Honestly, I don’t think they’d go anywhere. The AAC in that situation would still have Temple and SMU and those two schools alone are more consistent than anyone in the MVC. Plus, if the A-10 ever has a need to expand, the next school on the list is likely Loyola-Chicago, which is the most valuable school in the MVC. I don’t know if Wichita State would have chosen to join the AAC in the first place if it knew all of this would be happening this quickly, but now that they’re in the AAC, they don’t have other “no brainer” options. Their best play would be to figure out how to effectively form a western version of the Big East that would include Gonzaga, but that would take a TON of movement.

In terms of athletics---the best idea would be to add the top of the A-10 and go for more of the old Big East model. You then add the top performing football schools---say AppSt, LaTech, and Marshall---for a 10 team football league.

Thats the best athletic conference---academically---well---it is what it is. At least the league could still claim to be the top of the non-power football world and would have a solidly consistent multi-bid basketball conference. If the presidents could accept taking a step back academically---thats probably the best available option.

If the decision is to become a boutique athletic league that prioritizes academics, your best options are Rice, Buffalo, UMass, and UAB.

Each way forward has its advantages and disadvantages. The key is you have to make the decision as to what you ultimately want the league to be BEFORE you can decide who would comprise the replacement pool.

Both LA Tech and Marshall are R2 schools. I can't speak for LA Tech but Marshall has 6 top 5 programs and the #1 Forensic Science program in the world, not nation.

Marshall is also on track to be an R1 within 5-7 years.