(08-14-2021 12:57 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I think they are anchoring this to a 5+3 model in which case Big 12 has to take the very best available from the AAC. It could also be a 5+1+2 where 1 is non P5 champ, but the Big 12 has to prove they are unequivocally top 5 by raiding.

Houston and UC are in. The only question is is 11 and 12 BYU or some combo of UCF and another.

The cat is already out of the bag. It has to be 6+6 at this point. The Big 12 has to be able to show expansion targets the money. That will not be easy. If the AAC is getting about $7 million per school annually for their TV contract, then the Big 12 has to double that to attract AAC schools. The Big 12 has to know that they can get to $14 million per school on a TV contract with the addition of certain schools, while understanding that $14 million per school for TV is going to be a huge loss for the current L8 schools. Just a really bad situation for the Big 12 to be in.

The Medium 8 aren't in a horrible spot. 7 members in a decent not fantastic geographical alignment.

Assuming the six too champs provision is adopted, they've got inside track on a spot.

Part of realignment is sifting. If you are top half AAC, MWC, etc you can look around and see that the bottom of your current conference is below the bottom of the Big 12. The Big XII still holds some good brands. Kansas is a blue blood. The probability is that you joining Big 12 will result in more revenue and fan interest than remaining where you are. And of course the prisoner's dilemma. You might be best in AAC or MWC but what happens to the league if #2 and #3 jump after you say no. For refresher, anyone remember what happened when Utah State said no to MWC? Fresno and Nevada said yes and USU had to sweat waiting to see if they could get a do over.

Now if ACC, P12, B1G threw enough lifelines then the equation might change but I figure as long as six of the current aren't offered new homes in P4 the Big XII lives to fight another day.

(08-14-2021 06:26 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  The Medium 8 aren't in a horrible spot. 7 members in a decent not fantastic geographical alignment.

Assuming the six too champs provision is adopted, they've got inside track on a spot.

Part of realignment is sifting. If you are top half AAC, MWC, etc you can look around and see that the bottom of your current conference is below the bottom of the Big 12. The Big XII still holds some good brands. Kansas is a blue blood. The probability is that you joining Big 12 will result in more revenue and fan interest than remaining where you are. And of course the prisoner's dilemma. You might be best in AAC or MWC but what happens to the league if #2 and #3 jump after you say no. For refresher, anyone remember what happened when Utah State said no to MWC? Fresno and Nevada said yes and USU had to sweat waiting to see if they could get a do over.

Now if ACC, P12, B1G threw enough lifelines then the equation might change but I figure as long as six of the current aren't offered new homes in P4 the Big XII lives to fight another day.

Thats my theory. Furthermore---even if they lost a couple---the geography of the 6 remaining B12 schools would be so appealing to most any western division AAC team---they are going to jump. Basically, 4 to 6 B12 remaining teams could get any or all of Houston, Memphis, SMU, Tulsa, and Tulane to jump without a whole lot of convincing. A slate of Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, OSU, K State, and WVU would sell more tickets and require less travel than their current typical conference schedule----so the Big12 knows they can always call those western AAC members and live on as a firmly established 5th best conference. The payout will probably still be substantially greater than the AAC payout---even if the B12 doesnt get a full P5 share in a new 12-team CFP----my guess is it would likely be allocated a defined payout share larger than the G5 will receive from the split G5 pool. If I had to guess, Id say it the Big 12 gets gets a half a P5 share---with the other half of its old P5 share divided equally between the P5 and the G5 pool. Basically, everyone gets a little taste.

Could be pure BS but caught a podcast today where Dave Wannstedt claimed that he attended a meeting of Fox Sports in Phoenix last week and he said that expansion by the PAC, B1G and ACC will probably happen out of Big 12 programs. Didn't mention if all B12 programs would go but he mentioned at least 5 programs.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mu...0532984138

Start at 3:45

I could see 5 finding good homes with these moves:

Big 10: KU and Missouri
SEC: Ok state
ACC: WVU
Pac 12: Texas Tech, TCU

Not looking so hot for Baylor, Iowa state and K state, guess they go to the AAC which would put them at 14. Add BYU and VCU with Air Force football only would be a good league

(08-24-2021 11:49 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Could be pure BS but caught a podcast today where Dave Wannstedt claimed that he attended a meeting of Fox Sports in Phoenix last week and he said that expansion by the PAC, B1G and ACC will probably happen out of Big 12 programs. Didn't mention if all B12 programs would go but he mentioned at least 5 programs.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mu...0532984138

Start at 3:45

Take it fwiw but mhver3 is claiming they are dividing up the remainder. I don’t see how it makes sense for big 10 or acc.

(08-24-2021 11:49 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Could be pure BS but caught a podcast today where Dave Wannstedt claimed that he attended a meeting of Fox Sports in Phoenix last week and he said that expansion by the PAC, B1G and ACC will probably happen out of Big 12 programs. Didn't mention if all B12 programs would go but he mentioned at least 5 programs.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mu...0532984138

Start at 3:45

How reliable is Dave Wanstadt as a source? This is what I think he said

OkSt & Kansas to PAC-12. Thats done.
Sounds like its WV to ACC
Sounds like its ISU & Kan to Big Ten
TT, TCU, Bay - I don't know.

Now if he said he was just speculating, I would not spend any time thinking about what he said. But he said the 2 teams to the PAC are done, which sounds pretty confident to me.

(08-24-2021 01:44 PM)goofus Wrote:  How reliable is Dave Wanstadt as a source? This is what I think he said

OkSt & Kansas to PAC-12. Thats done.
Sounds like its WV to ACC
Sounds like its ISU & Kan to Big Ten
TT, TCU, Bay - I don't know.

Now if he said he was just speculating, I would not spend any time thinking about what he said. But he said the 2 teams to the PAC are done, which sounds pretty confident to me.

I'm not surprised by the PAC12 going to 14 if that's the case, but KSU would be somewhat surprising over a Texas school. My guess is they need inventory and KSU sports is pretty solid for an early window game.

B1G would surprise me. I don't see that, but those schools are pretty much there for the taking and are AAU. 10-15%.

WVU to the ACC doesn't surprise me. ESPN wants to solidify the rivalries. The only question is who is 16. If it's not ND, it comes down to TCU, Houston, or UC IMO. I'd put this at 20% likely.

The remaining Texas schools would end up in the AAC as a SWC division. This could be what ESPN is going for. Kill the Big 12 by paying slightly more to the AAC and ACC, taking a hit with the per school payout upon dilution, but saving themselves from bidding on a separate L8 package.

It's the best scenario in terms of rivalry and traditions. The Big 8 rivalries are forever dead for all intents and purposes. But the SWC and Big East football rivalries can be renewed.

(08-24-2021 02:18 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  WVU to the ACC doesn't surprise me. ESPN wants to solidify the rivalries. The only question is who is 16. If it's not ND, it comes down to TCU, Houston, or UC IMO. I'd put this at 20% likely.

Last year, the ACC showed that it could successfully conduct a regular season and conference championship with 15 teams. Just need CCG deregulation, which seems to be headed that way regardless with the SEC and apparent B1G, PAC and Big 12 expansions.

Good for the ACC and ESPN to revive the Backyard Brawl...and I'm sure WVU-Louisville and WVU-Syracuse have rivalry embers. I see loads of potential with WVU-Virginia Tech matchups. (Will the ACC stack schedules to keep WVU away from UVA and UNC as much as possible?).

15 teams would also (eventually) make the Notre Dame-ACC annual 5-game lineup pretty straightforward.

(08-24-2021 01:44 PM)goofus Wrote:  

(08-24-2021 11:49 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Could be pure BS but caught a podcast today where Dave Wannstedt claimed that he attended a meeting of Fox Sports in Phoenix last week and he said that expansion by the PAC, B1G and ACC will probably happen out of Big 12 programs. Didn't mention if all B12 programs would go but he mentioned at least 5 programs.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mu...0532984138

Start at 3:45

How reliable is Dave Wanstadt as a source? This is what I think he said

OkSt & Kansas to PAC-12. Thats done.
Sounds like its WV to ACC
Sounds like its ISU & Kan to Big Ten
TT, TCU, Bay - I don't know.

Now if he said he was just speculating, I would not spend any time thinking about what he said. But he said the 2 teams to the PAC are done, which sounds pretty confident to me.

PAC + Kansas St, Oklahoma St
North: California, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, Utah, Washington, Washington St
South: Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, UCLA, USC

ACC + Cincinnati, West Virginia
Atlantic: Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Miami, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Coastal: Clemson, Duke, Florida St, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Virginia, Wake Forest

B1G + Iowa St, Kansas
East: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Purdue, Rutgers
West: Illinois, Iowa, Iowa St, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

AAC - Cincinnati + Army*, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, VCU**
East: Army*, Central Florida, East Carolina, Memphis, South Florida, Temple, Tulane
West: Baylor, Houston, Navy*, SMU, TCU, Texas Tech, Tulsa
* Football-only
** Non-football: VCU, Wichita St

(08-24-2021 01:44 PM)goofus Wrote:  

(08-24-2021 11:49 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Could be pure BS but caught a podcast today where Dave Wannstedt claimed that he attended a meeting of Fox Sports in Phoenix last week and he said that expansion by the PAC, B1G and ACC will probably happen out of Big 12 programs. Didn't mention if all B12 programs would go but he mentioned at least 5 programs.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mu...0532984138

Start at 3:45

How reliable is Dave Wanstadt as a source? This is what I think he said

OkSt & Kansas to PAC-12. Thats done.
Sounds like its WV to ACC
Sounds like its ISU & Kan to Big Ten
TT, TCU, Bay - I don't know.

Now if he said he was just speculating, I would not spend any time thinking about what he said. But he said the 2 teams to the PAC are done, which sounds pretty confident to me.

If that's what Wannstedt said, then he's got as much credibility as Flugaur, The Dude of WV, some random Memphis radio guy in Mississippi, etc. So zero. None of that is going to happen.

(08-24-2021 02:27 PM)YNot Wrote:  15 teams would also (eventually) make the Notre Dame-ACC annual 5-game lineup pretty straightforward.

I think they need divisions. I don't think UNC has any interest playing in Morgantown or Syracuse very often. 8 vs 8 with Big East and ACC bloc is the way to play it (someone just posted the potential divisions). Miami would be the only school traveling North often, but their used to it, and you can protect their annual game vs FSU.

(08-24-2021 02:41 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(08-24-2021 02:27 PM)YNot Wrote:  15 teams would also (eventually) make the Notre Dame-ACC annual 5-game lineup pretty straightforward.

I think they need divisions. I don't think UNC has any interest playing in Morgantown or Syracuse very often. 8 vs 8 with Big East and ACC bloc is the way to play it (someone just posted the potential divisions). Miami would be the only school traveling North often, but their used to it, and you can protect their annual game vs FSU.

I like the Big East and ACC division idea.


No divisions and rotate 5 or so annual games would work too.

UNC gets- Duke, Wake, NC St, UVA, GT (Tobbaco road plus GT)
FSU gets- Miami, Clemson, GT, UL, VT
Miami gets FSU, BC, VT, Pitt, Syracuse (Other former Big East plus FSU)
Clemson gets GT, FSU, two of tobacco road or UVA, UL

So on, so forth. Protect historic games/rivals but also mix up schedules easily.

Top two teams in title game.

Take top two finishers.

Another thing with KSU, OSU, is maybe the travel is better than Lubbock? TCU may be out because of the culture and religious affiliations. But with Stillwater and Manhattan, maybe they are setting up a triangle offense type of schedule with Pacific Northwest, Bay Area and L.A teams. Unless ESPN wants TTech in the AAC and Fox thinks KSU is a better draw, but you are splitting hairs.

(08-24-2021 02:41 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(08-24-2021 02:27 PM)YNot Wrote:  15 teams would also (eventually) make the Notre Dame-ACC annual 5-game lineup pretty straightforward.

I think they need divisions. I don't think UNC has any interest playing in Morgantown or Syracuse very often. 8 vs 8 with Big East and ACC bloc is the way to play it (someone just posted the potential divisions). Miami would be the only school traveling North often, but their used to it, and you can protect their annual game vs FSU.

Depending on how many conference games they played those schools would only travel to Morgantown once every 16 years for football. I assume they play 9 conference games. 1 home & 1 away vs the other division + 7 inter-division games.

(08-24-2021 02:56 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  Depending on how many conference games they played those schools would only travel to Morgantown once every 16 years for football. I assume they play 9 conference games. 1 home & 1 away vs the other division + 7 inter-division games.

Cycle probably goes to 14 years home and away, as FSU/Miami and Va Tech/UVa are probably annual cross games in that setup. But yes, ACC bloc can avoid those road games like the plague sans 1 weekend in the year.

(08-24-2021 03:15 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(08-24-2021 02:56 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  Depending on how many conference games they played those schools would only travel to Morgantown once every 16 years for football. I assume they play 9 conference games. 1 home & 1 away vs the other division + 7 inter-division games.

Cycle probably goes to 14 years home and away, as FSU/Miami and Va Tech/UVa are probably annual cross games in that setup. But yes, ACC bloc can avoid those road games like the plague sans 1 weekend in the year.

Yes, true. Still that's a long time between visits so it should be tolerable.