I think it’s inevitable that eventually the ACC will get sliced up. The VA-NC core will resist until its crystal clear that the ship is sinking. With that said, I think dissolution is inevitable if:

The SEC takes Clemson and Florida St

The Big Ten takes Miami and ND (for symmetry sake let’s say they take GT and Pitt too.)

That leaves BC, Cuse, Louisville, UVA, VT, UNC, NC St, WF, and Duke

At that point, the VA-NC schools are willing to talk.

I think the B1G takes GT before Miami; however they will probably take Miami before they are able to pick up ND.

(08-13-2021 02:30 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think it’s inevitable that eventually the ACC will get sliced up. The VA-NC core will resist until its crystal clear that the ship is sinking. With that said, I think dissolution is inevitable if:

The SEC takes Clemson and Florida St

The Big Ten takes Miami and ND (for symmetry sake let’s say they take GT and Pitt too.)

That leaves BC, Cuse, Louisville, UVA, VT, UNC, NC St, WF, and Duke

At that point, the VA-NC schools are willing to talk.

You either split it Coastal/Atlantic or north/south splitting NC and VA.

(08-13-2021 02:30 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think it’s inevitable that eventually the ACC will get sliced up. The VA-NC core will resist until its crystal clear that the ship is sinking. With that said, I think dissolution is inevitable if:

The SEC takes Clemson and Florida St

The Big Ten takes Miami and ND (for symmetry sake let’s say they take GT and Pitt too.)

That leaves BC, Cuse, Louisville, UVA, VT, UNC, NC St, WF, and Duke

At that point, the VA-NC schools are willing to talk.

Why do you think it's inevitable that the ACC breaks up?

(08-13-2021 04:09 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(08-13-2021 02:30 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think it’s inevitable that eventually the ACC will get sliced up. The VA-NC core will resist until its crystal clear that the ship is sinking. With that said, I think dissolution is inevitable if:

The SEC takes Clemson and Florida St

The Big Ten takes Miami and ND (for symmetry sake let’s say they take GT and Pitt too.)

That leaves BC, Cuse, Louisville, UVA, VT, UNC, NC St, WF, and Duke

At that point, the VA-NC schools are willing to talk.

Why do you think it's inevitable that the ACC breaks up?

The financial pressures of taking in half the revenue that the SEC hauls in.

(08-13-2021 04:18 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(08-13-2021 04:09 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(08-13-2021 02:30 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think it’s inevitable that eventually the ACC will get sliced up. The VA-NC core will resist until its crystal clear that the ship is sinking. With that said, I think dissolution is inevitable if:

The SEC takes Clemson and Florida St

The Big Ten takes Miami and ND (for symmetry sake let’s say they take GT and Pitt too.)

That leaves BC, Cuse, Louisville, UVA, VT, UNC, NC St, WF, and Duke

At that point, the VA-NC schools are willing to talk.

Why do you think it's inevitable that the ACC breaks up?

The financial pressures of taking in half the revenue that the SEC hauls in.

That's been the case for the last 70 years. School A has a 100000 seat football stadium, school B has a 50000 seat stadium. It's been this way since the end of WWII

Let's use Mr. Peabody's Wayback Machine:

Here are the stadium sizes and the years for SEC and ACC schools

1955 LSU seats 67K (Now seats 105K)
1966 Bama seats 60K (Now seats 102K)
1960 TN seats 47K (Now seats 101L)
1966 Fl seats 62K (Now seats 90K)
1967 UGa seats 59K (Now seats 90K)

1966 GT seats 53K (Now seats 55K)

1942 Duke seats 42K (Now seats 40k)
1955 UNC seats 40K (Grew to 63 now seats 50K)
1963 Clemson seats 43K (now seats 84K)
1966 NC State seats 42K (Replaces Riddick 23K, Now seats 59K)
1968 WF seats 31K (Replaced Groves Stadium 20K)
1975 MD seats 43K
1977 UVa seats 28K (Now seats 64K)

Wake Forest was purchases by the R J Reynolds family and moved to Winston Salem. They could not take Groves Stadium with them. NC State played on Campus in Riddick Stadium but the Stadium was sandwiched between the railroad and the physical plant with no parking. Both WF and NC State had to build new.

Take a good long look at the decade of the 1960's. It is 1962 when the ACC at Duke's behest deemphasized football with the 800 SAT rule. In 1964 GT left the SEC. ACC schools do not resurface from the 800 SAT rule until the mid 1970's and by this point all that mattered were ACC Basketball Tournament Ticket Books.

The point is the ACC has never had as much income as the SEC, never.

How about a Big Ten/SEC "draft"? The Big 10 gets to draft six ACC teams and the SEC four teams so each conference gets 20 teams total. The Big 10 gets picks 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, and 10, the SEC 2, 3, 6, and 7. Notre Dame is eligible to be drafted. Teams must go to the conference that drafts them. The five teams not drafted are stuck in the ACC or beg another conference to take them.

Who gets drafted when? Notre Dame is the obvious #1 pick by the B1G but then who does the SEC take, followed by the B1G?

If ND is available to the SEC, they would of course take them.

SEC if ND available

1. ND
2. UNC (Covers State of NC)
3. VT (Covers State of Va and DC, and has a decent football program)
4. FSU (Second school in Florida)
5. Clemson (South Carolina's rival - National Power)
6. UVa or NC State depending on what happens with picks 2 and 3 (the two lower profile athletic programs in their states, NC State has a football program, UVa, not so much)
8. Miami (Third Florida School, become attractive if B10 picks over the core of the ACC)
9. GT or Pitt can't tease that out (GT is in Atlanta, but Pitt might make a little money for the SEC)
11. Duke (Duke is a pain in the ass for the SEC)

B10

1. ND (The white whale)
2. UNC (the light blue whale)
3. UVa (the french whale)
4. GT (A big 10 type school)
5. Miami/NC State/VT/FSU (this is really difficult to tease out) NC State and VT meet the academic profile of Big 10 schools - heavy graduate research and high ARWU rankings, and depends on what the SEC does, both Florida schools are in Florida which appeals to Penn State and Ohio State)
9. Duke (An academic equal to Northwestern, but a puny football program)
10. Pitt (PSU's long lost little brother)
11. Clemson (Not at all an academic fit based on research and a possibly a cultural incompatibility)

(08-13-2021 04:18 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(08-13-2021 04:09 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(08-13-2021 02:30 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think it’s inevitable that eventually the ACC will get sliced up. The VA-NC core will resist until its crystal clear that the ship is sinking. With that said, I think dissolution is inevitable if:

The SEC takes Clemson and Florida St

The Big Ten takes Miami and ND (for symmetry sake let’s say they take GT and Pitt too.)

That leaves BC, Cuse, Louisville, UVA, VT, UNC, NC St, WF, and Duke

At that point, the VA-NC schools are willing to talk.

Why do you think it's inevitable that the ACC breaks up?

The financial pressures of taking in half the revenue that the SEC hauls in.

I think there has to be something more than that. If that were all it would have already happened. I'm sure UNC and Virginia could have gone to the B1G years ago (and probably to the SEC as well). If Clemson and FSU could have gone to the SEC before they signed their last GoR they would have.

(08-13-2021 05:28 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(08-13-2021 04:18 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(08-13-2021 04:09 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(08-13-2021 02:30 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think it’s inevitable that eventually the ACC will get sliced up. The VA-NC core will resist until its crystal clear that the ship is sinking. With that said, I think dissolution is inevitable if:

The SEC takes Clemson and Florida St

The Big Ten takes Miami and ND (for symmetry sake let’s say they take GT and Pitt too.)

That leaves BC, Cuse, Louisville, UVA, VT, UNC, NC St, WF, and Duke

At that point, the VA-NC schools are willing to talk.

Why do you think it's inevitable that the ACC breaks up?

The financial pressures of taking in half the revenue that the SEC hauls in.

I think there has to be something more than that. If that were all it would have already happened. I'm sure UNC and Virginia could have gone to the B1G years ago (and probably to the SEC as well). If Clemson and FSU could have gone to the SEC before they signed their last GoR they would have.

Ken, that's the key point, Clemson and FSU COULD have gone to the SEC, but chose not to.

It's cheap to compete in the ACC - it's that damn simple. Folks need to figure out that on the other side of revenue is cost. With determination and grit Clemson and FSU can outspend everyone in the ACC but Duke and ND. The beauty of Duke is that they will not spend on Football. The moment you move to the Big or the SEC, you up against 2-4 schools that will spend their last dollar and FSU and Clemson will NEVER match that - they can't.

None of this is going to happen but for fun and to get to 20 in both conferences......

B1G adds:

-Duke
-North Carolina
-Virginia
-Georgia Tech
-Pittsburgh
-Notre Dame

SEC adds:

-Florida St.
-Clemson
-N.C. State
-VA Tech

I'm sure you could argue for Louisville or Miami but N.C. State and VA Tech would get the SEC into new states where the previously two stated would not.

(08-13-2021 05:32 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  None of this is going to happen but for fun and to get to 20 in both conferences......

B1G adds:

-Duke
-North Carolina
-Virginia
-Georgia Tech
-Pittsburgh
-Notre Dame

SEC adds:

-Florida St.
-Clemson
-N.C. State
-VA Tech

I'm sure you could argue for Louisville or Miami but N.C. State and VA Tech would get the SEC into new states where the previously two stated would not.

You could have both go to 21 and split into division of 3.

That would likely send Miami to the Big but as to who would be 21 in the SEC - that's difficult to say - perhaps Ok State.

Using Statefan's draft boards:

Big Ten: 1. Notre Dame, 4. Virginia, 5. Georgia Tech, 8. Miami, 9. NC State, 10. Duke

SEC: 2. North Carolina, 3. Virginia Tech, 6. Florida State, 7. Clemson

Left Behind: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Boston College, Louisville, Wake Forest

If I were the Big Ten and the SEC took UNC and VT, I would take FSU with one of my picks. UVa is more of an AAU/Big Ten type school than Clemson. If I thought the SEC would pass on UVa at 6 and 7, I'd probably take Clemson. Georgia Tech has academic value to the Big 10 and gives Atlanta but their athletic value is lower (although they are the reigning ACC Tournament champs).

Duke has better academic and men's basketball value than NC State. The geographic area is the same but NC State is a public school vs. Duke a private school. If you take Duke over NC State, then NC State vs. Pittsburgh becomes Pittsburgh is an AAU school and a metropolitan area you don't have directly (only indirectly via PSU) vs. directly (although via a private school). If the Big Ten loses Florida State to the SEC, Miami is their only way into Florida (and since they are a private school, that's pushing it).

If you are to believe Statefan's board, they got their #2, #3, #4, and #5 choices with the #2, #3, #6, and #7 picks so they have to love this.

(08-13-2021 05:32 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  None of this is going to happen but for fun and to get to 20 in both conferences......

B1G adds:

-Duke
-North Carolina
-Virginia
-Georgia Tech
-Pittsburgh
-Notre Dame

SEC adds:

-Florida St.
-Clemson
-N.C. State
-VA Tech

I'm sure you could argue for Louisville or Miami but N.C. State and VA Tech would get the SEC into new states where the previously two stated would not.

I would support this. I'd rather Florida State in the Big but it keeps the UF-FSU rivalry intact.

(08-13-2021 05:38 PM)Statefan Wrote:  You could have both go to 21 and split into division of 3.

That would likely send Miami to the Big but as to who would be 21 in the SEC - that's difficult to say - perhaps Ok State.

I'd rather Louisville for UK-UL in men's basketball.

(08-13-2021 05:38 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(08-13-2021 05:32 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  None of this is going to happen but for fun and to get to 20 in both conferences......

B1G adds:

-Duke
-North Carolina
-Virginia
-Georgia Tech
-Pittsburgh
-Notre Dame

SEC adds:

-Florida St.
-Clemson
-N.C. State
-VA Tech

I'm sure you could argue for Louisville or Miami but N.C. State and VA Tech would get the SEC into new states where the previously two stated would not.

You could have both go to 21 and split into division of 3.

That would likely send Miami to the Big but as to who would be 21 in the SEC - that's difficult to say - perhaps Ok State.

I like round numbers and I was just dissecting the ACC. If we're adding in the remaining members of the BigXII and going to 21, I would guess Kansas(AAU) to the B1G and whoever you want to pick to the SEC... Okie St? Louisville? Miami?

(08-13-2021 05:39 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Using Statefan's draft boards:

Big Ten: 1. Notre Dame, 4. Virginia, 5. Georgia Tech, 8. Miami, 9. NC State, 10. Duke

SEC: 2. North Carolina, 3. Virginia Tech, 6. Florida State, 7. Clemson

Left Behind: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Boston College, Louisville, Wake Forest

If I were the Big Ten and the SEC took UNC and VT, I would take FSU with one of my picks. UVa is more of an AAU/Big Ten type school than Clemson. If I thought the SEC would pass on UVa at 6 and 7, I'd probably take Clemson. Georgia Tech has academic value to the Big 10 and gives Atlanta but their athletic value is lower (although they are the reigning ACC Tournament champs).

Duke has better academic and men's basketball value than NC State. The geographic area is the same but NC State is a public school vs. Duke a private school. If you take Duke over NC State, then NC State vs. Pittsburgh becomes Pittsburgh is an AAU school and a metropolitan area you don't have directly (only indirectly via PSU) vs. directly (although via a private school). If the Big Ten loses Florida State to the SEC, Miami is their only way into Florida (and since they are a private school, that's pushing it).

If you are to believe Statefan's board, they got their #2, #3, #4, and #5 choices with the #2, #3, #6, and #7 picks so they have to love this.

I'm not sure what market Duke football covers for the B10. In the local DMA, Duke football would run behind NC State, UNC, ECU, WF, and perhaps App State. West of I-77 Duke football does not exist and I can't imagine anyone in the B10 other than MD, Rutgers, and NW that really want to play in Wallace Wade.

Here is my ACC draft board for anyone interested (from the Big 10 board):
https://csnbbs.com/thread-925723.html

Gee.

I wonder why people keep talking about the demise of the ACC. Yes the ACC’s revenue figure is lower and the league is not that deep in terms of the football. But didn’t the Big 12 have better football products and make more money? How come the ACC schools agreed to extend the GOR while the Big 12 was not able to do the same? The ACC was in a much more difficult situation before but every single school agreed to extend the GOR to 2036. That’s a whooping 20 year committment.

People don’t understand (1) how much the core ACC schools like to stay together and (2) the fact that non core schools have no realistic alternative better than staying in the ACC.

Schmolik - With K retiring it does not matter if his progeny are successful starting in 22/23. They can not be him and their fan base is just not going to adjust as fast as some seem to think. Hubert Davis is going to have a much easier time at UNC. It also doesn't matter how succesful Duke's other sports are because it's football that rows the boat.

B1G
Duke
North Carolina
*Notre Dame (if the B1G can get a PAC expansion group)
Virginia
*If ND is committed to staying out of B1G, then they can go after Georgia Tech

SEC
Clemson
Florida State
NC State
Virginia Tech
*If six, then Georgia Tech and Louisville

I'm confident due to revenues, history, academics and location, Georgia Tech will find a home in either the B1G or SEC.