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Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
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jgkojak Offline
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Post: #1
Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
Been thinking through this -

it really makes no sense to cut large parts of the country out of the college sports/college football system. There may not be a lot of Kansas State or Baylor fans, but they are out there and someone should make money off of them.

What does make sense, as an endgame:

Is ESPN trying to have their own proprietary version of the NFL?

The top 40 or so schools break off and form their own non-NCAA organization and simply play each other every year, culminating in an NFL style playoff?

This would mean no one is safe, including some B1G schools (Northwestern, Rutgers).

Schools like Ohio State, Michigan, Penn St, USC, UCLA, Oregon, maybe Arizona (but not ASU) join together in some sort of super conference - pull out of NCAA and split HUGE amounts of money as these will be the beyond Div1 football programs.

This would mean that after those 40 or so teams, the rest of the P5 are back with the G5 schools playing one another in what essentially becomes Division II even if its not labeled as such.
08-10-2021 11:28 AM
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panama Offline
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RE: Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
no
08-10-2021 11:31 AM
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Post: #3
RE: Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
B1G to 20 with PAC schools.

SEC to 18 with FSU/Clemson

B1G to 24 w/ UVA, UNC, Duke, GT

B1G and SEC then merge for a 42 team super conference.
08-10-2021 11:42 AM
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goofus Offline
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RE: Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
It is clear now that if the other conferences do nothing, the SEC will emerge as the clear #1 FBS conference. The other schools not in the SEC now have to make a choice if they want to keep up or not.

1. If they can get invited, schools could eventually leave their current conference and join the SEC to be part of what will be the only superconference. My assumption is that this would be a short list of potential invites. Mich, OhSt, PSU, ND, UNC, Clem, FL ST, USC, Ore, Wash, maybe a few more so schools are not totally isolated geographically. Maxing out at 30-40 teams

2. TOP Schools in Big Ten, ACC, and PAC leave their current conferences to form a 2nd superconference that would be considered close to equal with SEC.

3. Schools in Big Ten, ACC, PAC, Big 12 will accept that they are not in the top football conference and will be ok with it. It will be enough to compete each year for your conference championship and maybe sneak in a playoff upset win against an SEC at-large team every now and again.
(This post was last modified: 08-10-2021 04:17 PM by goofus.)
08-10-2021 11:50 AM
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DuelingDragon Offline
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RE: Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
I think we could end up seeing two 24-team mega conferences built around their media rights. Given you can't really kick anyone out, consolidation is the only way to get there. I think they will print money and hold every advantage but I do not think they will ever fully split off from the rest. I don't think they will need to in order to get what they want, and I don't think they will want to take on the fight that would create. Too much risk. There's a big difference in breaking away from G5 teams and cutting out current P5s.
08-10-2021 11:56 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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RE: Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
I don't buy the superleague occurring at all. Not that nothing is impossible without enough money being thrown at various parties, but I don't have this Armageddon view of the overall structures of the conferences because culture *does* matter.

The Big Ten, for instance, simply isn't looking at conference realignment as a completely football-focused exercise. They have never done so and they never will. Even if they could take schools from the ACC, for instance, its main targets would be the likes of UVA, UNC and/or Georgia Tech as opposed to Florida State and Clemson. From a pure football perspective, the Big Ten would probably be better off staying how it is than taking the other AAU schools that are conceivably available other than USC from the Pac-12 (and of course ND that isn't an AAU school). It's simply a different culture compared to the SEC... and that's OK! In fact, that's what makes the Big Ten schools valuable as overall *institutions* (not just football programs) is that the conference is NOT the SEC. No one in the Big Ten *wants* to be like the SEC.

I pointed this out before, but Apple, Amazon, Google and Microsoft are all tech companies that make a ton of money... but they have *very* different cultures and make money in different ways. That's how I see at least the comparison between the Big Ten and SEC as the top two: they have football power in common (just like the aforementioned companies all have tech in common), but once you get past that, they're simply very different cultures in terms of how they approach things. Now, if you want to say that the Big Ten is hypocritical and they're just as money-grubbing as the SEC, then you won't get an argument from me, but believe me that the veneer of academic respectability truly is quite important to the Big Ten members.
08-10-2021 12:05 PM
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Post: #7
RE: Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
(08-10-2021 12:05 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I don't buy the superleague occurring at all. Not that nothing is impossible without enough money being thrown at various parties, but I don't have this Armageddon view of the overall structures of the conferences because culture *does* matter.

The Big Ten, for instance, simply isn't looking at conference realignment as a completely football-focused exercise. They have never done so and they never will. Even if they could take schools from the ACC, for instance, its main targets would be the likes of UVA, UNC and/or Georgia Tech as opposed to Florida State and Clemson. From a pure football perspective, the Big Ten would probably be better off staying how it is than taking the other AAU schools that are conceivably available other than USC from the Pac-12 (and of course ND that isn't an AAU school). It's simply a different culture compared to the SEC... and that's OK! In fact, that's what makes the Big Ten schools valuable as overall *institutions* (not just football programs) is that the conference is NOT the SEC. No one in the Big Ten *wants* to be like the SEC.

I pointed this out before, but Apple, Amazon, Google and Microsoft are all tech companies that make a ton of money... but they have *very* different cultures and make money in different ways. That's how I see at least the comparison between the Big Ten and SEC as the top two: they have football power in common (just like the aforementioned companies all have tech in common), but once you get past that, they're simply very different cultures in terms of how they approach things. Now, if you want to say that the Big Ten is hypocritical and they're just as money-grubbing as the SEC, then you won't get an argument from me, but believe me that the veneer of academic respectability truly is quite important to the Big Ten members.

Actually I think they use the veneer to hide that they are more money grubbing. They've driven all the previous rounds of realignment with Penn St., Nebraska and then Maryland/Rutgers. They refused to join the CFA and did their own deal with the Pac. Then they left the Pac behind. And they charged those last 3 new members an arm and two legs to get in while the SEC brought in Missouri and Texas A&M at very close to 100% (think they got a discount for current year's basketball credits).
08-10-2021 12:10 PM
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Post: #8
RE: Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
I think it will be hard to do a 40 team superleague. I do think the power conferences (whoever those are at the time) will pull away from the NCAA and may bring some additional schools with them. But 55 to 90 is a more likely number than 40.
08-10-2021 12:12 PM
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Kit-Cat Offline
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RE: Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
(08-10-2021 12:05 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I don't buy the superleague occurring at all. Not that nothing is impossible without enough money being thrown at various parties, but I don't have this Armageddon view of the overall structures of the conferences because culture *does* matter.

The Big Ten, for instance, simply isn't looking at conference realignment as a completely football-focused exercise. They have never done so and they never will. Even if they could take schools from the ACC, for instance, its main targets would be the likes of UVA, UNC and/or Georgia Tech as opposed to Florida State and Clemson. From a pure football perspective, the Big Ten would probably be better off staying how it is than taking the other AAU schools that are conceivably available other than USC from the Pac-12 (and of course ND that isn't an AAU school). It's simply a different culture compared to the SEC... and that's OK! In fact, that's what makes the Big Ten schools valuable as overall *institutions* (not just football programs) is that the conference is NOT the SEC. No one in the Big Ten *wants* to be like the SEC.

I pointed this out before, but Apple, Amazon, Google and Microsoft are all tech companies that make a ton of money... but they have *very* different cultures and make money in different ways. That's how I see at least the comparison between the Big Ten and SEC as the top two: they have football power in common (just like the aforementioned companies all have tech in common), but once you get past that, they're simply very different cultures in terms of how they approach things. Now, if you want to say that the Big Ten is hypocritical and they're just as money-grubbing as the SEC, then you won't get an argument from me, but believe me that the veneer of academic respectability truly is quite important to the Big Ten members.

The SEC is becoming more like the B1G academically over time and the additions of OU/UT further it.

Long term the B1G has the upper hand because of its academics. They could force a merger.

Alternatively we could have a 20 team B1G w/ PAC schools coexist with an 18 team SEC with FSU/Clemson and a 16 team ACC with UC, WVU, UCF/USF to make things more like a P3.
08-10-2021 12:25 PM
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RE: Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
(08-10-2021 12:12 PM)bullet Wrote:  I think it will be hard to do a 40 team superleague. I do think the power conferences (whoever those are at the time) will pull away from the NCAA and may bring some additional schools with them. But 55 to 90 is a more likely number than 40.

I do understand those who want 40 or 48 for a split.

I'm not getting the idea of 90. There is a gradation within the G5 rather than a clear cut line like there is between the SEC and XII moving forward or the B1G to ACC.

Just because a program is in CUSA doesn't mean that it doesn't have more value than some of the AAC/MWC programs. UNT is an example of this.

If what happens they take the AAC up in whole but don't accept the G4 as conferences you'll see single schools from the G4 qualify up.
08-10-2021 12:33 PM
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RE: Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
(08-10-2021 12:33 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(08-10-2021 12:12 PM)bullet Wrote:  I think it will be hard to do a 40 team superleague. I do think the power conferences (whoever those are at the time) will pull away from the NCAA and may bring some additional schools with them. But 55 to 90 is a more likely number than 40.

I do understand those who want 40 or 48 for a split.

I'm not getting the idea of 90. There is a gradation within the G5 rather than a clear cut line like there is between the SEC and XII moving forward or the B1G to ACC.

Just because a program is in CUSA doesn't mean that it doesn't have more value than some of the AAC/MWC programs. UNT is an example of this.

If what happens they take the AAC up in whole but don't accept the G4 as conferences you'll see single schools from the G4 qualify up.

They really need some schools to beat up on. They don't need 65. Every previous time the top level got above 105 or so, they knocked it down to around 90. The MAC/BW/SB/CUSA 3.0 types have always been excluded when possible-CFA and the NCAA restructure of the 90s when MAC and BW got 1 vote while the other conferences got 3. There are 101 schools who arrived at the top level prior to 1987 (additions have picked up since then) and 82 prior to 1961. Most of those 19 from 1961 to 1986 were MAC/SB/CUSA 3.0 schools. Several of the MAC schools were moved down for 1 year in 1982 before their appeal.
08-10-2021 12:46 PM
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Post: #12
RE: Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
(08-10-2021 12:46 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-10-2021 12:33 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(08-10-2021 12:12 PM)bullet Wrote:  I think it will be hard to do a 40 team superleague. I do think the power conferences (whoever those are at the time) will pull away from the NCAA and may bring some additional schools with them. But 55 to 90 is a more likely number than 40.

I do understand those who want 40 or 48 for a split.

I'm not getting the idea of 90. There is a gradation within the G5 rather than a clear cut line like there is between the SEC and XII moving forward or the B1G to ACC.

Just because a program is in CUSA doesn't mean that it doesn't have more value than some of the AAC/MWC programs. UNT is an example of this.

If what happens they take the AAC up in whole but don't accept the G4 as conferences you'll see single schools from the G4 qualify up.

They really need some schools to beat up on. They don't need 65. Every previous time the top level got above 105 or so, they knocked it down to around 90. The MAC/BW/SB/CUSA 3.0 types have always been excluded when possible-CFA and the NCAA restructure of the 90s when MAC and BW got 1 vote while the other conferences got 3. There are 101 schools who arrived at the top level prior to 1987 (additions have picked up since then) and 82 prior to 1961. Most of those 19 from 1961 to 1986 were MAC/SB/CUSA 3.0 schools. Several of the MAC schools were moved down for 1 year in 1982 before their appeal.

No doubt there is history behind those programs considered less than big time in the past but some have grown to the point they would fight it and try to stay at the top level vs. stay behind with their conference mates.

Louisiana for instance has a 41k seat stadium, in the 80's it was 26k. The growth in some of these programs has changed who is worthy and who isn't.
08-10-2021 01:07 PM
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Post: #13
RE: Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
To answer the above question: yes to all of them.
08-10-2021 01:09 PM
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RE: Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
(08-10-2021 11:42 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  B1G to 20 with PAC schools.

SEC to 18 with FSU/Clemson

B1G to 24 w/ UVA, UNC, Duke, GT

B1G and SEC then merge for a 42 team super conference.

So NE and Vanderbilt still get to ride the coattails huh?
08-10-2021 01:11 PM
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Gemofthehills Offline
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RE: Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
(08-10-2021 11:28 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  Been thinking through this -

it really makes no sense to cut large parts of the country out of the college sports/college football system. There may not be a lot of Kansas State or Baylor fans, but they are out there and someone should make money off of them.

What does make sense, as an endgame:

Is ESPN trying to have their own proprietary version of the NFL?

The top 40 or so schools break off and form their own non-NCAA organization and simply play each other every year, culminating in an NFL style playoff?

This would mean no one is safe, including some B1G schools (Northwestern, Rutgers).

Schools like Ohio State, Michigan, Penn St, USC, UCLA, Oregon, maybe Arizona (but not ASU) join together in some sort of super conference - pull out of NCAA and split HUGE amounts of money as these will be the beyond Div1 football programs.

This would mean that after those 40 or so teams, the rest of the P5 are back with the G5 schools playing one another in what essentially becomes Division II even if its not labeled as such.

My guess is yes, maybe not exactly 40 but a small number and separated from the rest. No games between the have and the have nots.
08-10-2021 01:27 PM
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RE: Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
If there is any kind of reorg, it will not include a single current G5 school, and some current p5s won't be in it, either. There is no such thing as a college football lottery ticket. The same interests who made the CFA will make this, and they have zero interest in "new money."

But I don't think they are going to split. It's not in their interests either, if they get what they want without having to fight that fight.
08-10-2021 01:31 PM
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RE: Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
(08-10-2021 12:05 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I don't buy the superleague occurring at all. Not that nothing is impossible without enough money being thrown at various parties, but I don't have this Armageddon view of the overall structures of the conferences because culture *does* matter.

Disagree. You're going to see NFL Lite. College kids will be getting compensated - either directly thru salary or thru endorsement deals on the side. It changes the nature of the sport. They're professionals and it's time we recognize this reality so that everyone can get on with their lives. Fvck the universities for pretending college athletics is something different than it actually is.

Two mega conferences controlled by ESPN and FOX. It will be interesting to see how many brands will fall by the wayside as this unfolds. So far, Miami and Nebraska have been pretty well cannibalized thru mergers. Michigan and Wisconsin won't be far off.
08-10-2021 01:55 PM
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RE: Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
(08-10-2021 01:55 PM)miko33 Wrote:  
(08-10-2021 12:05 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I don't buy the superleague occurring at all. Not that nothing is impossible without enough money being thrown at various parties, but I don't have this Armageddon view of the overall structures of the conferences because culture *does* matter.

Disagree. You're going to see NFL Lite. College kids will be getting compensated - either directly thru salary or thru endorsement deals on the side. It changes the nature of the sport. They're professionals and it's time we recognize this reality so that everyone can get on with their lives. Fvck the universities for pretending college athletics is something different than it actually is.

Two mega conferences controlled by ESPN and FOX. It will be interesting to see how many brands will fall by the wayside as this unfolds. So far, Miami and Nebraska have been pretty well cannibalized thru mergers. Michigan and Wisconsin won't be far off.

That is not how the era of NBA high schoolers going early to the pros has played out.

What happened in basketball is more attention has been taken away to the pro game. If it gets to that point in FB schools are going to have a real problem on their hands.
08-10-2021 02:09 PM
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miko33 Offline
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RE: Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
(08-10-2021 02:09 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(08-10-2021 01:55 PM)miko33 Wrote:  
(08-10-2021 12:05 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I don't buy the superleague occurring at all. Not that nothing is impossible without enough money being thrown at various parties, but I don't have this Armageddon view of the overall structures of the conferences because culture *does* matter.

Disagree. You're going to see NFL Lite. College kids will be getting compensated - either directly thru salary or thru endorsement deals on the side. It changes the nature of the sport. They're professionals and it's time we recognize this reality so that everyone can get on with their lives. Fvck the universities for pretending college athletics is something different than it actually is.

Two mega conferences controlled by ESPN and FOX. It will be interesting to see how many brands will fall by the wayside as this unfolds. So far, Miami and Nebraska have been pretty well cannibalized thru mergers. Michigan and Wisconsin won't be far off.

That is not how the era of NBA high schoolers going early to the pros has played out.

What happened in basketball is more attention has been taken away to the pro game. If it gets to that point in FB schools are going to have a real problem on their hands.

If the NFL is willing to take HS kids direct and allow "one and done" kids to become eligible for the draft, then it will still result in CFB becoming "NFL Lite". Only difference is that instead of being a step down league that could make money in their own right, the CFB world would turn into a "D League".

Same outcome.
08-10-2021 02:19 PM
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RE: Is the End Game a 40 or so team Super League
(08-10-2021 02:19 PM)miko33 Wrote:  
(08-10-2021 02:09 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(08-10-2021 01:55 PM)miko33 Wrote:  
(08-10-2021 12:05 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I don't buy the superleague occurring at all. Not that nothing is impossible without enough money being thrown at various parties, but I don't have this Armageddon view of the overall structures of the conferences because culture *does* matter.

Disagree. You're going to see NFL Lite. College kids will be getting compensated - either directly thru salary or thru endorsement deals on the side. It changes the nature of the sport. They're professionals and it's time we recognize this reality so that everyone can get on with their lives. Fvck the universities for pretending college athletics is something different than it actually is.

Two mega conferences controlled by ESPN and FOX. It will be interesting to see how many brands will fall by the wayside as this unfolds. So far, Miami and Nebraska have been pretty well cannibalized thru mergers. Michigan and Wisconsin won't be far off.

That is not how the era of NBA high schoolers going early to the pros has played out.

What happened in basketball is more attention has been taken away to the pro game. If it gets to that point in FB schools are going to have a real problem on their hands.

If the NFL is willing to take HS kids direct and allow "one and done" kids to become eligible for the draft, then it will still result in CFB becoming "NFL Lite". Only difference is that instead of being a step down league that could make money in their own right, the CFB world would turn into a "D League".

Same outcome.

There's a big difference between football and basketball simply because of the sport.

Elite high school basketball players can absolutely go straight to the NBA or be a "one and done" player based on sheer talent level. The only reason why the NBA has the restriction where they want draftees to be at least one year out of high school is because there was a 10-year period where there were several direct from high school draft pick busts for every Kobe/LeBron success (and the nature of the NBA is that making a wrong decision with a high lottery draft pick has *insanely* bad consequences for teams even more than other sports). It's basically a guard rail for teams to avoid making franchise-altering terrible risks on high school players.

That just doesn't work for football. Realistically, even the very best football players need at least 2 years after high school to develop physically for the NFL. That's why you don't ever see a rush to the exits for stellar freshmen or even sophomore football players.

In essence, the nature of the sport of football provides a layer of protection for college programs from losing players early to the pros in a way that doesn't exist for basketball.

Granted, I'm all for college players getting every single dime that they can get from NIL endorsements. That doesn't bother me one iota. They should absolutely be able to maximize the value of their personal brands. In that sense, college football has been "NFL Lite" for a very long time already. I'll never understand "the sky is falling crowd" on that front.
08-10-2021 02:30 PM
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