1) Give the finger to UT and OU and add teams (4-6) soon (this year) while they still have that certain B12 "je ne sais quoi" BUT that means they gotta split their media payments amongst more members and split up the Exit Fee lottery win with the new folks as well.

OR

2) Wait till 2025, keep maximum cash and then send invites. Danger here is that more L8 teams might find a P4 home and you potentially have no media deal (at least not one as lucrative as the one now) to offer incoming teams. In this scenario the AAC might be the hunters in 2025.

OR MAYBE

3) A hybrid where they invite two teams for now, maybe BYU and Cindy, which reduces the money split and then 2-4 more after 2025. This, I would argue, would be the smartest choice. Best of both worlds. Keeps payouts to new folks low but strengthens the conference to where they would, in all likelihood, get a very good media deal (not P level but closer than what the AAC enjoys) and be the Poachers and not the Poachees in 2025.


The sane choice is #1 or #3 but the B12 has been $$$ driven so far which leads to choice #2.

Personally, I would wait until 2025. Drive a hard bargain. Keep the war chest and start the process of expanding next year.

I kid.

I don't think they know what to do. I imagine some of that depends on what happens in the next 4 years. If nothing changes, they probably just wait.

I don’t know. After getting shanked a couple of weeks ago, I see Bowlsby being very cautious, taking measured steps going forward and keeping his head on a swivel. I could see this alliance with the PAC 12 getting implemented first and maybe moving toward #3 in the next year or so. Just a guess.

Strongest urge among the L8 will continue to be self-preservation, outwardly as a conference but actually as individual schools desperately attempting to secure another P-5 home among those L8 members that consider themselves worthy. If KU can't get the B1G invite, all of the L8 are faced with sticking together for the short term with a very uncertain future where the B-12 dissolves, relegated or is revalued much lower & then eventually dissolves when an eventual expansion is made by the B1G.

(08-06-2021 08:31 AM)NoQuarterBrigade Wrote:  I don’t know. After getting shanked a couple of weeks ago, I see Bowlsby being very cautious, taking measured steps going forward and keeping his head on a swivel. I could see this alliance with the PAC 12 getting implemented first and maybe moving toward #3 in the next year or so. Just a guess.

If the American loses just Cincinnati they should just stay at 10. 10 is a good number for a conference. No need to water down the pot. They could play a round robin and have a championship game if they wanted, like the Big XII does now.

*** SMUstang ***

(08-06-2021 08:45 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 08:31 AM)NoQuarterBrigade Wrote:  I don’t know. After getting shanked a couple of weeks ago, I see Bowlsby being very cautious, taking measured steps going forward and keeping his head on a swivel. I could see this alliance with the PAC 12 getting implemented first and maybe moving toward #3 in the next year or so. Just a guess.

If the American loses just Cincinnati they should just stay at 10. 10 is a good number for a conference. No need to water down the pot.

*** SMUstang ***

I agree with that. And could do a round robin schedule that way.

(08-06-2021 07:56 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  1) Give the finger to UT and OU and add teams (4-6) soon (this year) while they still have that certain B12 "je ne sais quoi" BUT that means they gotta split their media payments amongst more members and split up the Exit Fee lottery win with the new folks as well.

OR

2) Wait till 2025, keep maximum cash and then send invites. Danger here is that more L8 teams might find a P4 home and you potentially have no media deal (at least not one as lucrative as the one now) to offer incoming teams. In this scenario the AAC might be the hunters in 2025.

OR MAYBE

3) A hybrid where they invite two teams for now, maybe BYU and Cindy, which reduces the money split and then 2-4 more after 2025. This, I would argue, would be the smartest choice. Best of both worlds. Keeps payouts to new folks low but strengthens the conference to where they would, in all likelihood, get a very good media deal (not P level but closer than what the AAC enjoys) and be the Poachers and not the Poachees in 2025.


The sane choice is #1 or #3 but the B12 has been $$$ driven so far which leads to choice #2.

I think #1 would be ill advised. TX/OU are likely looking for any reason they can use to try to get out of the astronomical amounts they'd owe by leaving early. Screwing with conference composition before 2025 gives them an argument.

Their best move, based on their value without TX/OU, is to sit tight until 2025. They could probably get away with making agreements to add teams in 2025...maybe, but anything before that is a dangerous game to play.

(08-06-2021 09:07 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 07:56 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  1) Give the finger to UT and OU and add teams (4-6) soon (this year) while they still have that certain B12 "je ne sais quoi" BUT that means they gotta split their media payments amongst more members and split up the Exit Fee lottery win with the new folks as well.

OR

2) Wait till 2025, keep maximum cash and then send invites. Danger here is that more L8 teams might find a P4 home and you potentially have no media deal (at least not one as lucrative as the one now) to offer incoming teams. In this scenario the AAC might be the hunters in 2025.

OR MAYBE

3) A hybrid where they invite two teams for now, maybe BYU and Cindy, which reduces the money split and then 2-4 more after 2025. This, I would argue, would be the smartest choice. Best of both worlds. Keeps payouts to new folks low but strengthens the conference to where they would, in all likelihood, get a very good media deal (not P level but closer than what the AAC enjoys) and be the Poachers and not the Poachees in 2025.


The sane choice is #1 or #3 but the B12 has been $$$ driven so far which leads to choice #2.

I think #1 would be ill advised. TX/OU are likely looking for any reason they can use to try to get out of the astronomical amounts they'd owe by leaving early. Screwing with conference composition before 2025 gives them an argument.

Their best move, based on their value without TX/OU, is to sit tight until 2025. They could probably get away with making agreements to add teams in 2025...maybe, but anything before that is a dangerous game to play.

are there any contractual / "binding" obligations anywhere in this cluster, that would require that the B8 have at least 10 members? bylaws, tv contracts, ncaa, etc?

(08-06-2021 07:56 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  1) Give the finger to UT and OU and add teams (4-6) soon (this year) while they still have that certain B12 "je ne sais quoi" BUT that means they gotta split their media payments amongst more members and split up the Exit Fee lottery win with the new folks as well.

OR

2) Wait till 2025, keep maximum cash and then send invites. Danger here is that more L8 teams might find a P4 home and you potentially have no media deal (at least not one as lucrative as the one now) to offer incoming teams. In this scenario the AAC might be the hunters in 2025.

OR MAYBE

3) A hybrid where they invite two teams for now, maybe BYU and Cindy, which reduces the money split and then 2-4 more after 2025. This, I would argue, would be the smartest choice. Best of both worlds. Keeps payouts to new folks low but strengthens the conference to where they would, in all likelihood, get a very good media deal (not P level but closer than what the AAC enjoys) and be the Poachers and not the Poachees in 2025.


The sane choice is #1 or #3 but the B12 has been $$$ driven so far which leads to choice #2.

If the BIG XII reloads and stays together the best that they can hope for is in the $14M to $16M or less, they will never come close to what they are getting with UT and OU.

And ESPN can squash all of this by offering AAC more than they will offer BIG XII regardless of who joins them, yes I've read about University of Louisiana at Lafayette and Louisiana Tech University... That should get them about $7M per team

(08-06-2021 09:21 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 07:56 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  1) Give the finger to UT and OU and add teams (4-6) soon (this year) while they still have that certain B12 "je ne sais quoi" BUT that means they gotta split their media payments amongst more members and split up the Exit Fee lottery win with the new folks as well.

OR

2) Wait till 2025, keep maximum cash and then send invites. Danger here is that more L8 teams might find a P4 home and you potentially have no media deal (at least not one as lucrative as the one now) to offer incoming teams. In this scenario the AAC might be the hunters in 2025.

OR MAYBE

3) A hybrid where they invite two teams for now, maybe BYU and Cindy, which reduces the money split and then 2-4 more after 2025. This, I would argue, would be the smartest choice. Best of both worlds. Keeps payouts to new folks low but strengthens the conference to where they would, in all likelihood, get a very good media deal (not P level but closer than what the AAC enjoys) and be the Poachers and not the Poachees in 2025.


The sane choice is #1 or #3 but the B12 has been $$$ driven so far which leads to choice #2.

If the BIG XII reloads and stays together the best that they can hope for is in the $14M to $16M or less, they will never come close to what they are getting with UT and OU.

And ESPN can squash all of this by offering AAC more than they will offer BIG XII regardless of who joins them, yes I've read about University of Louisiana at Lafayette and Louisiana Tech University... That should get them about $7M per team

Actually that move would get them less.

(08-06-2021 09:21 AM)dave108 Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 09:07 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 07:56 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  1) Give the finger to UT and OU and add teams (4-6) soon (this year) while they still have that certain B12 "je ne sais quoi" BUT that means they gotta split their media payments amongst more members and split up the Exit Fee lottery win with the new folks as well.

OR

2) Wait till 2025, keep maximum cash and then send invites. Danger here is that more L8 teams might find a P4 home and you potentially have no media deal (at least not one as lucrative as the one now) to offer incoming teams. In this scenario the AAC might be the hunters in 2025.

OR MAYBE

3) A hybrid where they invite two teams for now, maybe BYU and Cindy, which reduces the money split and then 2-4 more after 2025. This, I would argue, would be the smartest choice. Best of both worlds. Keeps payouts to new folks low but strengthens the conference to where they would, in all likelihood, get a very good media deal (not P level but closer than what the AAC enjoys) and be the Poachers and not the Poachees in 2025.


The sane choice is #1 or #3 but the B12 has been $$$ driven so far which leads to choice #2.

I think #1 would be ill advised. TX/OU are likely looking for any reason they can use to try to get out of the astronomical amounts they'd owe by leaving early. Screwing with conference composition before 2025 gives them an argument.

Their best move, based on their value without TX/OU, is to sit tight until 2025. They could probably get away with making agreements to add teams in 2025...maybe, but anything before that is a dangerous game to play.

are there any contractual / "binding" obligations anywhere in this cluster, that would require that the B8 have at least 10 members? bylaws, tv contracts, ncaa, etc?

I don't have their bylaws or GOR language. I would just say that they'd have an argument if random teams started being added. Have to remember that they "plan" to keep everything as normal through 2025.

It's like if we signed a GOR, and all of a sudden Rice, UTEP, and UL-Monroe appeared on our schedules. We'd have an argument that this isn't what we signed up for. Our media partners would make the same argument.

(08-06-2021 09:22 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 09:21 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 07:56 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  1) Give the finger to UT and OU and add teams (4-6) soon (this year) while they still have that certain B12 "je ne sais quoi" BUT that means they gotta split their media payments amongst more members and split up the Exit Fee lottery win with the new folks as well.

OR

2) Wait till 2025, keep maximum cash and then send invites. Danger here is that more L8 teams might find a P4 home and you potentially have no media deal (at least not one as lucrative as the one now) to offer incoming teams. In this scenario the AAC might be the hunters in 2025.

OR MAYBE

3) A hybrid where they invite two teams for now, maybe BYU and Cindy, which reduces the money split and then 2-4 more after 2025. This, I would argue, would be the smartest choice. Best of both worlds. Keeps payouts to new folks low but strengthens the conference to where they would, in all likelihood, get a very good media deal (not P level but closer than what the AAC enjoys) and be the Poachers and not the Poachees in 2025.


The sane choice is #1 or #3 but the B12 has been $$$ driven so far which leads to choice #2.

If the BIG XII reloads and stays together the best that they can hope for is in the $14M to $16M or less, they will never come close to what they are getting with UT and OU.

And ESPN can squash all of this by offering AAC more than they will offer BIG XII regardless of who joins them, yes I've read about University of Louisiana at Lafayette and Louisiana Tech University... That should get them about $7M per team

Actually that move would get them less.

I'm feeling good this morning... a bit too generous, you are right

I still believe that UT and OU will wind up in the SEC next year or 2023, in time for the new playoff format.

Question is how will that affect the existing Media payout... GOR will not prevent TV partners from renegotiating.

theyve made the play they want obviously known

they are going to wait till 2024/25...and hope something happens between now and then that forces another p5 to want to merge/...
they know the pac12 need only lose USC AND THE PAC 12 (Who is already seen as weak) will jump at a merger opportunity

so they want to stall as a long as possible to allow other conference moves.. they constantly noted that they have 4 years to decide, and wont rush...noted in their hearing theyve done no research on expansion, despite texas officially leaving and it being known they want out early ..but yet constnatly speak of the pac 12 and how great that merger would be

the smart move is too take teams now, and start building them up to have power status branding wise, so when ut/ou leave they still have 10 power brands ... TCU isnt viewed as a g5 team, theyve only been in the big 12 for 7 years ..but more teams makes a merger harder....they are going to gamble on some other conference getting raided

I'm sticking with my L8/PAC merger theory. TT, TCU, Baylor, OSU, KSU, and ISU to the PAC for "football-only". It may not be until 2025 but the Big XII stays together as a conference but doesn't sponsor football. They get all of the exit fees and distribute them among the remaining schools. KU dropping football and WVU going "indy" in football would not be a bad thing. Then they can add non football schools such as St Louis, while the football teams play in their "Power" conference. A win-win situation.

*** SMUstang ***

I don't think they really know what they want to do yet, but they feel their best option is to merge with Pac 12.

This is unlikely, so they are hoping they can retain all 8 members, with no defections so they can collect on UT on OU. If Kansas leaves, it starts getting ugly fast.

(08-06-2021 07:56 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  1) Give the finger to UT and OU and add teams (4-6) soon (this year) while they still have that certain B12 "je ne sais quoi" BUT that means they gotta split their media payments amongst more members and split up the Exit Fee lottery win with the new folks as well.

OR

2) Wait till 2025, keep maximum cash and then send invites. Danger here is that more L8 teams might find a P4 home and you potentially have no media deal (at least not one as lucrative as the one now) to offer incoming teams. In this scenario the AAC might be the hunters in 2025.

OR MAYBE

3) A hybrid where they invite two teams for now, maybe BYU and Cindy, which reduces the money split and then 2-4 more after 2025. This, I would argue, would be the smartest choice. Best of both worlds. Keeps payouts to new folks low but strengthens the conference to where they would, in all likelihood, get a very good media deal (not P level but closer than what the AAC enjoys) and be the Poachers and not the Poachees in 2025.


The sane choice is #1 or #3 but the B12 has been $$$ driven so far which leads to choice #2.

I doubt the new additions to the L8 will get the same pay and for dang sure they won’t get a dime of the TX/OK exit fees.

(08-06-2021 10:28 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  I'm sticking with my L8/PAC merger theory. TT, TCU, Baylor, OSU, KSU, and ISU to the PAC for "football-only". It may not be until 2025 but the Big XII stays together as a conference but doesn't sponsor football. They get all of the exit fees and distribute them among the remaining schools. KU dropping football and WVU going "indy" in football would not be a bad thing. Then they can add non football schools such as St Louis, while the football teams play in their "Power" conference. A win-win situation.

*** SMUstang ***

I think they hold out for that---but I also think UT/OU leave early with a settlement agreement....which means the Big12 will have to take 2 to stay at 10. But I think thats all they take because they want to see if the Pac12 door opens. That makes the move a bit dangerous as all 8 B12 schools could bolt for the Pac12 in a single conference shattering move--leaving the new invitees behind.

(08-06-2021 10:28 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  I'm sticking with my L8/PAC merger theory. TT, TCU, Baylor, OSU, KSU, and ISU to the PAC for "football-only". It may not be until 2025 but the Big XII stays together as a conference but doesn't sponsor football. They get all of the exit fees and distribute them among the remaining schools. KU dropping football and WVU going "indy" in football would not be a bad thing. Then they can add non football schools such as St Louis, while the football teams play in their "Power" conference. A win-win situation.

*** SMUstang ***

Since Olympic sports determine primary conference, why wait to move football until 2025?

They'd still get exit fees and NCAA credits