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SEC Mega conference a Fallacy or is it ?
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JHS55 Offline
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SEC Mega conference a Fallacy or is it ?
Will a mega conference with all the top football brands really bring more nielsen ratings?, mybe ?, or are the A5 seeing fewer viewers as recent trends suggest, reached a saturation point
Is espn trying to get bigger ratings by creating two huge mega conferences with only blue bloods ?
or is espn trying to pay only blue bloods ?
i’ve always thought it strange or a bad business model to pay the little sisters 40 , 50m each when espn really only wants to pay the 2 schools that carry a A5 conference, b12, pac12, ACC only the sec has more than two
08-02-2021 04:37 PM
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MickMack Offline
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RE: SEC Mega conference a Fallacy or is it ?
I've long thought that ESPN's goal is a "power league" that looks much more like the NFL than college football as we know it. ESPN wants to consolidate the best programs and neuter everyone else so they don't have to pay a premium price for it. ESPN's power league will have its own playoff that the rest of college football is excluded from. Perhaps some teams will become doormats in this new league, but people will still watch. Don't believe me? How many people pay money to watch the Bengals or Lions on a Sunday? The exclusivity of the power league will keep fans watching, even if their teams are horrible. The exclusivity will also ensure that the best players, NIL deals and, most importantly for ESPN, advertising spend, is controlled by ESPN.
08-02-2021 05:05 PM
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JHS55 Offline
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RE: SEC Mega conference a Fallacy or is it ?
espn is paying about 25 million per team in the b12
texas and oklahoma together = 50m
the rest get 400m
a recent study showed that the remaining 8 teams games played without tex, okla only get slightly more viewers than did the AAC
so that shows that texas and oklahoma is where the money is made
same is true with the ACC and b10 and probably tha pac12, same contract model
so it’s espn culling the herd, separating the bulls from the cows
espn pays way less for herding all the blue bloods into one or two conferences and makes more money with the same amount of eyeballs
where the cows go is anyone’s guess but now espn saves another boat load of money because the value of the cows is much much reduced
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2021 05:57 PM by JHS55.)
08-02-2021 05:35 PM
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Renandpat Offline
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RE: SEC Mega conference a Fallacy or is it ?
(08-02-2021 04:37 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  Will a mega conference with all the top football brands really bring more nielsen ratings?, mybe ?, or are the A5 seeing fewer viewers as recent trends suggest, reached a saturation point
Is espn trying to get bigger ratings by creating two huge mega conferences with only blue bloods ?
or is espn trying to pay only blue bloods ?
i’ve always thought it strange or a bad business model to pay the little sisters 40 , 50m each when espn really only wants to pay the 2 schools that carry a A5 conference, b12, pac12, ACC only the sec has more than two

It's apparent that Nielsen isn't a reliable measurement and hasn't been for years, even with PPM. They fight hard not to be audited and an audit of February number were undercounting by as much as 6%. In addition, the pandemic was at the same time Nielsen reversed its decision to start measuring "out of home" viewing. Not that the G5 don't have viewing parties, but measuring bars with a super conference is good for ESPN, but it via Nielsen or a competitor, like comScore.
08-02-2021 06:01 PM
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JHS55 Offline
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RE: SEC Mega conference a Fallacy or is it ?
(08-02-2021 06:01 PM)Renandpat Wrote:  
(08-02-2021 04:37 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  Will a mega conference with all the top football brands really bring more nielsen ratings?, mybe ?, or are the A5 seeing fewer viewers as recent trends suggest, reached a saturation point
Is espn trying to get bigger ratings by creating two huge mega conferences with only blue bloods ?
or is espn trying to pay only blue bloods ?
i’ve always thought it strange or a bad business model to pay the little sisters 40 , 50m each when espn really only wants to pay the 2 schools that carry a A5 conference, b12, pac12, ACC only the sec has more than two

It's apparent that Nielsen isn't a reliable measurement and hasn't been for years, even with PPM. They fight hard not to be audited and an audit of February number were undercounting by as much as 6%. In addition, the pandemic was at the same time Nielsen reversed its decision to start measuring "out of home" viewing. Not that the G5 don't have viewing parties, but measuring bars with a super conference is good for ESPN, but it via Nielsen or a competitor, like comScore.
correct, nielsen has so many law suits it’s crazy but you get my point
08-02-2021 06:06 PM
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AuzGrams Online
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RE: SEC Mega conference a Fallacy or is it ?
I'm not a big fan of it. Lots of weirdness and rivalries and traditions jacked around. The divisional structure seems off. You're not gonna have Alabama, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma in the same division obviously?? I guess they can do protected rivalry games or whatever?
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2021 03:06 AM by AuzGrams.)
08-03-2021 02:54 AM
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schmolik Offline
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RE: SEC Mega conference a Fallacy or is it ?
I can't speak for other college football fans but outside of schools I have personal connections to or regional interest in I am more likely to watch a college football game if both teams are at the top level. So it would be natural for ESPN to want to consolidate the top teams in fewer conferences if possible. It can be debated whether or not ESPN was behind the move of Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC (the Big 12 certainly thinks so) but the move makes sense (I had argued it well before it actually happened: https://csnbbs.com/thread-894943.html). Getting Oklahoma and Texas out of the Big 12 means not having to pay the leftover 8 nearly as much money. But every conference has its teams you want and are willing to pay for as well as teams you don't want and are stuck paying for. If you're a network, sure you'd love a "conference" of only "top draws". If Alabama could play a Florida, Georgia, Oklahoma, Clemson, or Ohio State every week, what would the TV ratings be?

It worked great breaking up the Big 12. I'm not sure it will be as easy to break up the other conferences. The Big 12 is way younger a conference than the Big 10, ACC, and Pac 12 (formerly 10 and 8). Texas and Oklahoma didn't have the loyalty to the Big 12 that Ohio State has to the Big 10 or the California schools to the Pac 12 or even Clemson to the ACC (although I would think they'd drop the ACC for the SEC even without a massive pay raise). Even before Texas and Oklahoma left, four other schools had previously left the Big 12. Since the Big 12 was formed, ONE ACC school left for another conference and ZERO Big Ten or Pac 12 schools have. Ten of the Big 10 schools have been in the Big 10 since I was born (1973), and eight of the Pac 12 schools have.

The ACC could be the one at issue as only six of its current 15 members (including Notre Dame) were there in 1973 (Georgia Tech added in 1979). I would even include Penn State and Florida State in the "lifers" category as they were the biggest moves that strengthened the Big Ten and ACC, respectively, and PSU and FSU were independents in football before then. If Penn State doesn't have loyalty to the Big Ten, who do they? So I'll use 2000 as the cutoff for "lifers". That would be Big Ten 11/14. Pac 12 10/12, ACC 8/15. Of the seven "non lifers" in the ACC, six of them played in the old Big East. Do they have the same loyalty to the ACC as the charter members or Georgia Tech and Florida State (of course I'm not sure FSU has the same loyalty to the ACC as the Carolina schools and UVa)?

Even if ESPN was able to get all of the top Big 10, ACC, and Pac 12 teams into the SEC and dump all of the Big 10's, ACC's, and Pac 12's "dead weight", what about the SEC's dead weight they still have? Why do the Mississippi schools get to play in the big leagues and schools like Illinois, Maryland, California, UCLA, Pittsburgh, etc. don't? If we're going to have a real heavyweight league, let's have a brand new league and not give the whole SEC a free pass to it. A conference isn't "only blue bloods" if Vanderbilt is in it.

I support Oklahoma and Texas moving to the SEC but I wouldn't be in favor of other conferences' top teams going to the SEC, especially Ohio State. Ohio State is the Big 10's most valuable school but the Big 10 isn't a one school conference, there are other valuable schools in the conference. Hopefully the network(s) realize that and keep the Big Ten close enough to the SEC and OSU stays.
08-03-2021 12:55 PM
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