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Big XII uses AAC to bridge gap to WVU
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mvcfan76 Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Big XII uses AAC to bridge gap to WVU
(08-03-2021 09:45 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(08-02-2021 09:26 PM)mvcfan76 Wrote:  
(08-02-2021 09:08 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  So let me get this straight. All of you think that Bowlsby writing a mean letter to ESPN has literally scared the shirts out of them and the AAC so much that they have both decided to roll over and take it in the rear. You all think that the mouse is going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to the L8 (a conference that they only have half the rights to) so that they can destroy the AAC that they have 100% of and then resign them again after 2025 to another great deal. Question, when has ESPN ever lost ? Does all of you think that ESPN didn't think all of this through before they started executing this ground plan starting with Texas/OU to the SEC and ending with the AAC getting most if not all of the L8 for about 20-25 million to cap their plan for a breakaway division. Everything that the L8 teams are thinking and saying is literally mirroring the old Big East/ACC events. 07-coffee307-coffee307-coffee3

The problem for ESPN is that the remaining schools have made it very clear that aside from a p4 conference invite, those schools will stick together and make Texas pay every last penny they owe them. ESPN tried to use the AAC to disolve the Big 12 but the members of the 12 saw through ESPNs plan. That number for the TV deal that the AAC showed those big 12 schools was not some random number the mouse pulled out of its a$$. that number was the TV contract payouts that would allow ESPN to save money by avoiding the fees ut and ou owe the big 12. If that number was any higher then ESPN would be overpaying for AAC content and wouldnt be saving money at all by dissolving the big 12, because paying Tulsa 16 mil a year is also a waste of cash. Now since ESPN knows they are going to have to pay the big 12 they are going to look for ways to save money, ironically the quickest and fastest way to do that would be to extract the AACs bigger brands so they no longer have to overpay the lower value AAC schools 7 mill per year. This will allow the network to save some money. The idea that ESPN has some sort of philosophical or institutional desire to dissolve the big 12 is frankly asinine. They want to dissolve the big 12 to save money but it appears as if the 12 is going to hold on and get its one last payday and there is nothing espn can do to stop that if those 8 are committed. This is all business tactics im sure ESPN is pissed that they are going to have to pay but they arent sitting around like "curse you big 12 for making the smart short term business decision!" they understand whats going on, this is all a profit maximization game for them.

I’m afraid I don’t understand this logic at all. ESPN owes no fees to anyone. Furthermore, the GOR means the UT/OU rights STAY with the Big12 until the end of the current B12 TV contract in 2025—even if UT and OU start SEC play in 2022. This is a preexisting condition and would simply be an encumbrance the SEC would have to accept if they want UT/OU prior to 2025.

Thus, ESPN and FOX would split the home game rights to OU and UT in the SEC until 2025. But what about the away games? ESPN would also get the Rights to EIGHT more OU/UT SEC AWAY games each year due to their other deals with the SEC PLUS one more home UT game (due to the LHN deal). ESPN doesn’t have to share those with FOX.

So, basically, ESPN gets almost all the benefit of a 2022 SEC move by UT and OU and doesn’t need to ante up a dime to do it. It’s way more of an OU/UT problem—-not an ESPN problem.

You are right, it only prevents them from having access to a handful of ou and ut games which I'm sure they would like. When you put it this way it makes me doubt bowlsbys claims to begin with. And even if true it would prolly be espn telling ut and ou "hey we will see what we can do to help you out"
08-03-2021 10:13 AM
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Kit-Cat Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Big XII uses AAC to bridge gap to WVU
(08-03-2021 09:44 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(08-02-2021 04:14 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(08-02-2021 04:07 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(08-02-2021 03:44 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  ESPN doesn't control the XII like it does the AAC.

XII could go west to tick them off ...

On the one hand, yes, they do not. On the other hand, UC and Houston are of some value to the Big12 in their own right.

There aren't enough spots nor suitable schools available to "bridging the gap" to WVU, but UC and Houston have earned a number of NCAA bids over the past six years. And no matter how big a whispering campaign that ESPN runs about the Big12 dissolving, they are two schools who are going to say "yes, how soon?" to an invite, as it will be good for their basketball recruiting as well to be in the same conference as Kansas.

And it goes without saying that the idea that the Remaining Eight University Presidents will endorse a strategy "to tick ESPN off" is conference board silliness.

Bruce think about the optics. The raid the AAC tried to pull together with ESPN.

Most people today are unaware of "the raid the AAC tried to pull together", but even so, all the optics required to establish that the raid was a dismal failure is the first school from the AAC accepting a Big12 spot.

If BYU is on the fence until it sees how things shake out, the Big12 can invite Houston and UC to have a 10 that they can stand pat with, and also in consultation with their new media partners after things settle down, they can determine if they want another two, and find out if BYU is willing to join or is going to stay independent.

________________
(08-03-2021 07:49 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  ... The problem with going east is UC/UCF/USF would all rather be in the ACC and WVU the same thinking. ...

Pragmatically, this is only a problem if any of those schools have a realistic chance of getting into the ACC. It seems that most of the CUSA, SBC and MAC schools also would rather be in the ACC, but it doesn't mean that desire has the slightest influence on the aftershocks of the TX/OK move.

For a conference like the XII its GOR to GOR thinking at this point.

If the XII can go 10/9 with BYU/CSU and sign another GOR that is the best possible financial move they can make. It also gives them a shot to reverse poach the PAC which is their best possible option.

I think there is going real hesitancy by the XII adding members that cut into existing turf. Texas schools toward Houston, WVU toward UC and Memphis. The reason is they don't want to end up behind those schools in the conference standings.

Instead I think the mantra will be that with OU/UT gone that will move programs like Iowa State and TCU further up the Top 25 rankings now they don't have big brother sitting on top of them. Now long term, the 15-25 year view it will be difficult to keep up with the P4 but in the 5-10 year view (the GOR view) it can be doable.

XII is not a 100 year conference. Its a 25 year shotgun marriage and additions/subtractions should be viewed in that light.
08-03-2021 10:47 AM
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BCSvsBS Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Big XII uses AAC to bridge gap to WVU
(08-03-2021 10:47 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(08-03-2021 09:44 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(08-02-2021 04:14 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(08-02-2021 04:07 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(08-02-2021 03:44 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  ESPN doesn't control the XII like it does the AAC.

XII could go west to tick them off ...

On the one hand, yes, they do not. On the other hand, UC and Houston are of some value to the Big12 in their own right.

There aren't enough spots nor suitable schools available to "bridging the gap" to WVU, but UC and Houston have earned a number of NCAA bids over the past six years. And no matter how big a whispering campaign that ESPN runs about the Big12 dissolving, they are two schools who are going to say "yes, how soon?" to an invite, as it will be good for their basketball recruiting as well to be in the same conference as Kansas.

And it goes without saying that the idea that the Remaining Eight University Presidents will endorse a strategy "to tick ESPN off" is conference board silliness.

Bruce think about the optics. The raid the AAC tried to pull together with ESPN.

Most people today are unaware of "the raid the AAC tried to pull together", but even so, all the optics required to establish that the raid was a dismal failure is the first school from the AAC accepting a Big12 spot.

If BYU is on the fence until it sees how things shake out, the Big12 can invite Houston and UC to have a 10 that they can stand pat with, and also in consultation with their new media partners after things settle down, they can determine if they want another two, and find out if BYU is willing to join or is going to stay independent.

________________
(08-03-2021 07:49 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  ... The problem with going east is UC/UCF/USF would all rather be in the ACC and WVU the same thinking. ...

Pragmatically, this is only a problem if any of those schools have a realistic chance of getting into the ACC. It seems that most of the CUSA, SBC and MAC schools also would rather be in the ACC, but it doesn't mean that desire has the slightest influence on the aftershocks of the TX/OK move.

For a conference like the XII its GOR to GOR thinking at this point.

If the XII can go 10/9 with BYU/CSU and sign another GOR that is the best possible financial move they can make. It also gives them a shot to reverse poach the PAC which is their best possible option.

I think there is going real hesitancy by the XII adding members that cut into existing turf. Texas schools toward Houston, WVU toward UC and Memphis. The reason is they don't want to end up behind those schools in the conference standings.

Instead I think the mantra will be that with OU/UT gone that will move programs like Iowa State and TCU further up the Top 25 rankings now they don't have big brother sitting on top of them. Now long term, the 15-25 year view it will be difficult to keep up with the P4 but in the 5-10 year view (the GOR view) it can be doable.

XII is not a 100 year conference. Its a 25 year shotgun marriage and additions/subtractions should be viewed in that light.

What all the elitists forget is that the L8 don't have OU and UT to prop them up with preseason favoritism in the rankings either. So those top 25 rankings will be more in line with 30's and 40's. 04-cheers
08-03-2021 11:26 AM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Big XII uses AAC to bridge gap to WVU
(08-03-2021 10:47 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  ... If the XII can go 10/9 with BYU/CSU and sign another GOR that is the best possible financial move they can make. It also gives them a shot to reverse poach the PAC which is their best possible option. ...

(1) There is no reason for them to take CSU. They have Houston, UC and UCF available as schools that bring both more value for their football and more value for their basketball, if they remain too snobbish to take Memphis.

(2) The Big12 "reverse poaching" the PAC-12 is an even bigger fantasy as the AAC "reverse poaching" the Big12 ... at least with the latter there's some (though not conclusive) evidence that the strategy was attempted, though it is not showing any sign of working.
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2021 11:45 AM by BruceMcF.)
08-03-2021 11:42 AM
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Kit-Cat Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Big XII uses AAC to bridge gap to WVU
(08-03-2021 11:42 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(08-03-2021 10:47 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  ... If the XII can go 10/9 with BYU/CSU and sign another GOR that is the best possible financial move they can make. It also gives them a shot to reverse poach the PAC which is their best possible option. ...

(1) There is no reason for them to take CSU. They have Houston, UC and UCF available as schools that bring both more value for their football and more value for their basketball, if they remain too snobbish to take Memphis.

(2) The Big12 "reverse poaching" the PAC-12 is an even bigger fantasy as the AAC "reverse poaching" the Big12 ... at least with the latter there's some (though not conclusive) evidence that the strategy was attempted, though it is not showing any sign of working.

How many metro universities does the XII have today? None. They added WVU over UC last time because it was a land grant university.

Colorado State did come up in the final 10 research in 2016 and is a more logical geographic bridge than adding UC/UH/UCF (metro schools) to BYU.

Football attendance at CSU is as good as Houston, playing a MWC schedule. They could do 40,000 in the XII.
08-03-2021 12:36 PM
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ColKurtz Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Big XII uses AAC to bridge gap to WVU
(08-03-2021 11:26 AM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  
(08-03-2021 10:47 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(08-03-2021 09:44 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(08-02-2021 04:14 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(08-02-2021 04:07 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  On the one hand, yes, they do not. On the other hand, UC and Houston are of some value to the Big12 in their own right.

There aren't enough spots nor suitable schools available to "bridging the gap" to WVU, but UC and Houston have earned a number of NCAA bids over the past six years. And no matter how big a whispering campaign that ESPN runs about the Big12 dissolving, they are two schools who are going to say "yes, how soon?" to an invite, as it will be good for their basketball recruiting as well to be in the same conference as Kansas.

And it goes without saying that the idea that the Remaining Eight University Presidents will endorse a strategy "to tick ESPN off" is conference board silliness.

Bruce think about the optics. The raid the AAC tried to pull together with ESPN.

Most people today are unaware of "the raid the AAC tried to pull together", but even so, all the optics required to establish that the raid was a dismal failure is the first school from the AAC accepting a Big12 spot.

If BYU is on the fence until it sees how things shake out, the Big12 can invite Houston and UC to have a 10 that they can stand pat with, and also in consultation with their new media partners after things settle down, they can determine if they want another two, and find out if BYU is willing to join or is going to stay independent.

________________
(08-03-2021 07:49 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  ... The problem with going east is UC/UCF/USF would all rather be in the ACC and WVU the same thinking. ...

Pragmatically, this is only a problem if any of those schools have a realistic chance of getting into the ACC. It seems that most of the CUSA, SBC and MAC schools also would rather be in the ACC, but it doesn't mean that desire has the slightest influence on the aftershocks of the TX/OK move.

For a conference like the XII its GOR to GOR thinking at this point.

If the XII can go 10/9 with BYU/CSU and sign another GOR that is the best possible financial move they can make. It also gives them a shot to reverse poach the PAC which is their best possible option.

I think there is going real hesitancy by the XII adding members that cut into existing turf. Texas schools toward Houston, WVU toward UC and Memphis. The reason is they don't want to end up behind those schools in the conference standings.

Instead I think the mantra will be that with OU/UT gone that will move programs like Iowa State and TCU further up the Top 25 rankings now they don't have big brother sitting on top of them. Now long term, the 15-25 year view it will be difficult to keep up with the P4 but in the 5-10 year view (the GOR view) it can be doable.

XII is not a 100 year conference. Its a 25 year shotgun marriage and additions/subtractions should be viewed in that light.

What all the elitists forget is that the L8 don't have OU and UT to prop them up with preseason favoritism in the rankings either. So those top 25 rankings will be more in line with 30's and 40's. 04-cheers

Idk. Big East was pretty weak after the first ACC raid and WVU found a way to get to #2 in 2007 even after losing to USF early in the season.
08-03-2021 01:45 PM
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ken d Online
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Post: #47
RE: Big XII uses AAC to bridge gap to WVU
(08-02-2021 07:27 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  If you go east to fill in closer to WV the top four have to be Cincinnati, UCF, USF, and UH. That's 4 big metro areas to add.

How, exactly, do UCF , USF and Houston fill in the gap with West Virginia? I must be looking at a different map than you are.
08-03-2021 03:50 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Big XII uses AAC to bridge gap to WVU
(08-03-2021 03:50 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(08-02-2021 07:27 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  If you go east to fill in closer to WV the top four have to be Cincinnati, UCF, USF, and UH. That's 4 big metro areas to add.

How, exactly, do UCF , USF and Houston fill in the gap with West Virginia? I must be looking at a different map than you are.

See, if you are Oklahoma State, you fly from Oklahoma City to Houston, then catch a boat across the Gulf of Mexico to Tampa, and book a set of minivan taxis to Orlando, and from there you can catch a train to DC and from there a train to Pittsburgh, and then drive a bus to Morgantown.

[Image: giphy.gif]
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2021 04:11 PM by BruceMcF.)
08-03-2021 04:09 PM
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