So let me get this straight. All of you think that Bowlsby writing a mean letter to ESPN has literally scared the shirts out of them and the AAC so much that they have both decided to roll over and take it in the rear. You all think that the mouse is going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to the L8 (a conference that they only have half the rights to) so that they can destroy the AAC that they have 100% of and then resign them again after 2025 to another great deal. Question, when has ESPN ever lost ? Does all of you think that ESPN didn't think all of this through before they started executing this ground plan starting with Texas/OU to the SEC and ending with the AAC getting most if not all of the L8 for about 20-25 million to cap their plan for a breakaway division. Everything that the L8 teams are thinking and saying is literally mirroring the old Big East/ACC events.

(08-02-2021 04:14 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 04:07 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 03:44 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  ESPN doesn't control the XII like it does the AAC.

XII could go west to tick them off ...

On the one hand, yes, they do not. On the other hand, UC and Houston are of some value to the Big12 in their own right.

There aren't enough spots nor suitable schools available to "bridging the gap" to WVU, but UC and Houston have earned a number of NCAA bids over the past six years. And no matter how big a whispering campaign that ESPN runs about the Big12 dissolving, they are two schools who are going to say "yes, how soon?" to an invite, as it will be good for their basketball recruiting as well to be in the same conference as Kansas.

And it goes without saying that the idea that the Remaining Eight University Presidents will endorse a strategy "to tick ESPN off" is conference board silliness.

Bruce think about the optics. The raid the AAC tried to pull together with ESPN.

XII could ignore it all by inviting BYU/CSU, do an 8 year GOR and earn north of 12 million per in TV money.

BYU nor any AAC members are going to help the Big12 as they are marching towards oblivion. I can assure you that ESPN owned programs already know the endgame. It's amazing that ESPN and the AAC's silence hasn't caught everyone's attention.

(08-02-2021 09:08 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  So let me get this straight. All of you think that Bowlsby writing a mean letter to ESPN has literally scared the shirts out of them and the AAC so much that they have both decided to roll over and take it in the rear. You all think that the mouse is going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to the L8 (a conference that they only have half the rights to) so that they can destroy the AAC that they have 100% of and then resign them again after 2025 to another great deal. Question, when has ESPN ever lost ? Does all of you think that ESPN didn't think all of this through before they started executing this ground plan starting with Texas/OU to the SEC and ending with the AAC getting most if not all of the L8 for about 20-25 million to cap their plan for a breakaway division. Everything that the L8 teams are thinking and saying is literally mirroring the old Big East/ACC events.

The problem for ESPN is that the remaining schools have made it very clear that aside from a p4 conference invite, those schools will stick together and make Texas pay every last penny they owe them. ESPN tried to use the AAC to disolve the Big 12 but the members of the 12 saw through ESPNs plan. That number for the TV deal that the AAC showed those big 12 schools was not some random number the mouse pulled out of its a$$. that number was the TV contract payouts that would allow ESPN to save money by avoiding the fees ut and ou owe the big 12. If that number was any higher then ESPN would be overpaying for AAC content and wouldnt be saving money at all by dissolving the big 12, because paying Tulsa 16 mil a year is also a waste of cash. Now since ESPN knows they are going to have to pay the big 12 they are going to look for ways to save money, ironically the quickest and fastest way to do that would be to extract the AACs bigger brands so they no longer have to overpay the lower value AAC schools 7 mill per year. This will allow the network to save some money. The idea that ESPN has some sort of philosophical or institutional desire to dissolve the big 12 is frankly asinine. They want to dissolve the big 12 to save money but it appears as if the 12 is going to hold on and get its one last payday and there is nothing espn can do to stop that if those 8 are committed. This is all business tactics im sure ESPN is pissed that they are going to have to pay but they arent sitting around like "curse you big 12 for making the smart short term business decision!" they understand whats going on, this is all a profit maximization game for them.

(08-02-2021 07:27 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  If you go east to fill in closer to WV the top four have to be Cincinnati, UCF, USF, and UH. That's 4 big metro areas to add.

Then you have to split the Kansas schools or add Oklahoma state to the north or east.

(08-02-2021 02:37 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 02:24 PM)freshtop Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 02:08 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  I think the assumption is that WVU would want AAC infill schools but that really isn't the case. WVU may not sign a GOR with the XII regardless.

I'd imagine that sometime between now and when the GOR expires a couple options are going to present themselves.

Option 1.) WVU and others get their golden ticket to another power conference. There is much rejoicing, the media payout goose keeps laying golden eggs.

Option 2.) The Big 12 stays at 8 and takes a massive hit to media revenue. Speculation is that it will drop to 9-15 mil per team.

Option 3.) ESPN convinces the Big 12 to take the upper echelon of the AAC, MWC, and/or BYU. They do this by offering a larger payout per team on average (say 17 mil per). They do this so that they can then water down the payouts to the AAC once it backfills with C-USA/SBC, and then continue to water down the payouts to SBC, etc. They end up with more content for ESPN+ (gaining C-USA) for less total money paid out.

ESPN wants the AAC to sweep in and pick up the leftovers.

Best move would be XII expanding with 2 (BYU, Col St) to keep up the academic image. Sign a GOR to make it a bigger deal.

The Big 12 never had an academic image outside of Texas.

(08-02-2021 09:26 PM)mvcfan76 Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 09:08 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  So let me get this straight. All of you think that Bowlsby writing a mean letter to ESPN has literally scared the shirts out of them and the AAC so much that they have both decided to roll over and take it in the rear. You all think that the mouse is going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to the L8 (a conference that they only have half the rights to) so that they can destroy the AAC that they have 100% of and then resign them again after 2025 to another great deal. Question, when has ESPN ever lost ? Does all of you think that ESPN didn't think all of this through before they started executing this ground plan starting with Texas/OU to the SEC and ending with the AAC getting most if not all of the L8 for about 20-25 million to cap their plan for a breakaway division. Everything that the L8 teams are thinking and saying is literally mirroring the old Big East/ACC events.

The problem for ESPN is that the remaining schools have made it very clear that aside from a p4 conference invite, those schools will stick together and make Texas pay every last penny they owe them. ESPN tried to use the AAC to disolve the Big 12 but the members of the 12 saw through ESPNs plan. That number for the TV deal that the AAC showed those big 12 schools was not some random number the mouse pulled out of its a$$. that number was the TV contract payouts that would allow ESPN to save money by avoiding the fees ut and ou owe the big 12. If that number was any higher then ESPN would be overpaying for AAC content and wouldnt be saving money at all by dissolving the big 12, because paying Tulsa 16 mil a year is also a waste of cash. Now since ESPN knows they are going to have to pay the big 12 they are going to look for ways to save money, ironically the quickest and fastest way to do that would be to extract the AACs bigger brands so they no longer have to overpay the lower value AAC schools 7 mill per year. This will allow the network to save some money. The idea that ESPN has some sort of philosophical or institutional desire to dissolve the big 12 is frankly asinine. They want to dissolve the big 12 to save money but it appears as if the 12 is going to hold on and get its one last payday and there is nothing espn can do to stop that if those 8 are committed. This is all business tactics im sure ESPN is pissed that they are going to have to pay but they arent sitting around like "curse you big 12 for making the smart short term business decision!" they understand whats going on, this is all a profit maximization game for them.

If you want to believe that,,,,then go right ahead. If you think that ESPN didn't anticipate this scenario,,,,then go right ahead. If you really think that a group of 8 programs that have been babied and spoon feed can stop the absolute strongest entity in college sports from getting its way,,,,then go ahead (but I'd ask the OBE about it first). Have you wondered why everyone is silent on this (ESPN, AAC, every big12 program even FOX) except for Bowlsby?

If they go to 12 (I would lean to 10), I think the 4 old Big 8 schools will want to be together and so will thr Texas schools (although Oklahoma State could go either way ar this point after years in the Big 12 South.

(08-02-2021 11:32 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  If they go to 12 (I would lean to 10), I think the 4 old Big 8 schools will want to be together and so will thr Texas schools (although Oklahoma State could go either way ar this point after years in the Big 12 South.

10 is safe, 12 is very possible, but I like 14.
If 10: Cincinnati, Houston
If 12: Central Florida, Memphis
If 14: SMU, South Florida

At 12 -
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, TCU, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech

At 14 -
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, SMU, South Florida, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech

I would think the XII originals would stick together due to history and, geographically, it just makes sense.

I’d put the rivalry games in division, but that’s good

(08-02-2021 11:57 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 11:32 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  If they go to 12 (I would lean to 10), I think the 4 old Big 8 schools will want to be together and so will thr Texas schools (although Oklahoma State could go either way ar this point after years in the Big 12 South.

10 is safe, 12 is very possible, but I like 14.
If 10: Cincinnati, Houston
If 12: Central Florida, Memphis
If 14: SMU, South Florida

At 12 -
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, TCU, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech

At 14 -
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, SMU, South Florida, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech

I would think the XII originals would stick together due to history and, geographically, it just makes sense.

I totally agree with you on this. I think your breakdown is objectively on the money. I think through negotiations this is pretty much the way that ESPN is thinking only under the AAC banner. People are constantly comparing the Big12 payout to the AAC'S when it really doesn't matter because ESPN is going to pay for it anyway. The thing is if they continue down the Big12 path the future is going to bleak but under the AAC banner the future will be pleasantly acceptable. In the end I think the money is going to the same.

(08-02-2021 11:57 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 11:32 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  If they go to 12 (I would lean to 10), I think the 4 old Big 8 schools will want to be together and so will thr Texas schools (although Oklahoma State could go either way ar this point after years in the Big 12 South.

10 is safe, 12 is very possible, but I like 14.
If 10: Cincinnati, Houston
If 12: Central Florida, Memphis
If 14: SMU, South Florida

At 12 -
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, TCU, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech

At 14 -
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, SMU, South Florida, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech

I would think the XII originals would stick together due to history and, geographically, it just makes sense.

Yes, this would be a death blow to the AAC. I am curious if E$PN can countersue Big12 for disrupting their property. It’s unlikely they go that far however, and even a conference with SMU Tulane USF ECU can survive as an offshoot. Big 12 must circle all the legal loopholes before they make a move.

(08-02-2021 09:26 PM)mvcfan76 Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 09:08 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  So let me get this straight. All of you think that Bowlsby writing a mean letter to ESPN has literally scared the shirts out of them and the AAC so much that they have both decided to roll over and take it in the rear. You all think that the mouse is going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to the L8 (a conference that they only have half the rights to) so that they can destroy the AAC that they have 100% of and then resign them again after 2025 to another great deal. Question, when has ESPN ever lost ? Does all of you think that ESPN didn't think all of this through before they started executing this ground plan starting with Texas/OU to the SEC and ending with the AAC getting most if not all of the L8 for about 20-25 million to cap their plan for a breakaway division. Everything that the L8 teams are thinking and saying is literally mirroring the old Big East/ACC events.

The problem for ESPN is that the remaining schools have made it very clear that aside from a p4 conference invite, those schools will stick together and make Texas pay every last penny they owe them. ESPN tried to use the AAC to disolve the Big 12 but the members of the 12 saw through ESPNs plan. That number for the TV deal that the AAC showed those big 12 schools was not some random number the mouse pulled out of its a$$. that number was the TV contract payouts that would allow ESPN to save money by avoiding the fees ut and ou owe the big 12. If that number was any higher then ESPN would be overpaying for AAC content and wouldnt be saving money at all by dissolving the big 12, because paying Tulsa 16 mil a year is also a waste of cash. Now since ESPN knows they are going to have to pay the big 12 they are going to look for ways to save money, ironically the quickest and fastest way to do that would be to extract the AACs bigger brands so they no longer have to overpay the lower value AAC schools 7 mill per year. This will allow the network to save some money. The idea that ESPN has some sort of philosophical or institutional desire to dissolve the big 12 is frankly asinine. They want to dissolve the big 12 to save money but it appears as if the 12 is going to hold on and get its one last payday and there is nothing espn can do to stop that if those 8 are committed. This is all business tactics im sure ESPN is pissed that they are going to have to pay but they arent sitting around like "curse you big 12 for making the smart short term business decision!" they understand whats going on, this is all a profit maximization game for them.

I do not know what, if anything, ESPN has been doing with regards to the AAC or Big 12. Have no clue if any of the media reports or Bowlsby's letter are true or not.

That said, I fundamentally agree with you that the main reason for ESPN to want the L8 to join the AAC would be to save money on what they are paying for their content. Well, since that would also likely involve a boost to what the AAC teams are making, it would be a net savings situation - meaning ESPN is paying less for the combined AAC and L8 content than they are currently paying.

That would seem to me to be the reason for ESPN wanting a AAC/L8 merger or whatever to happen. Again, whether ESPN has engaged in any machinations to try and get it to happen, I have no idea.

(08-02-2021 02:37 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 02:24 PM)freshtop Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 02:08 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  I think the assumption is that WVU would want AAC infill schools but that really isn't the case. WVU may not sign a GOR with the XII regardless.

I'd imagine that sometime between now and when the GOR expires a couple options are going to present themselves.

Option 1.) WVU and others get their golden ticket to another power conference. There is much rejoicing, the media payout goose keeps laying golden eggs.

Option 2.) The Big 12 stays at 8 and takes a massive hit to media revenue. Speculation is that it will drop to 9-15 mil per team.

Option 3.) ESPN convinces the Big 12 to take the upper echelon of the AAC, MWC, and/or BYU. They do this by offering a larger payout per team on average (say 17 mil per). They do this so that they can then water down the payouts to the AAC once it backfills with C-USA/SBC, and then continue to water down the payouts to SBC, etc. They end up with more content for ESPN+ (gaining C-USA) for less total money paid out.

ESPN wants the AAC to sweep in and pick up the leftovers.

Best move would be XII expanding with 2 (BYU, Col St) to keep up the academic image. Sign a GOR to make it a bigger deal.

I agree, but would say BYU & Houston (However IMHO I think the BIG12 Presidents would want AFA as their #1 choice but the AFA wants no part of P5)
If BYU is out due to no Sundays and teh LGBT honor Code I think teh BIG12 goes with Houston and Cincy!

I then think that Big 12 and Pac 12 will start fighting iy out for who will be the bottom feeders of P-5 Conf. (However the Pac-12 might make a strike in the next year to stengthen their brand and value and send the BIG12 spinning out of control)

(08-03-2021 07:13 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 02:37 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 02:24 PM)freshtop Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 02:08 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  I think the assumption is that WVU would want AAC infill schools but that really isn't the case. WVU may not sign a GOR with the XII regardless.

I'd imagine that sometime between now and when the GOR expires a couple options are going to present themselves.

Option 1.) WVU and others get their golden ticket to another power conference. There is much rejoicing, the media payout goose keeps laying golden eggs.

Option 2.) The Big 12 stays at 8 and takes a massive hit to media revenue. Speculation is that it will drop to 9-15 mil per team.

Option 3.) ESPN convinces the Big 12 to take the upper echelon of the AAC, MWC, and/or BYU. They do this by offering a larger payout per team on average (say 17 mil per). They do this so that they can then water down the payouts to the AAC once it backfills with C-USA/SBC, and then continue to water down the payouts to SBC, etc. They end up with more content for ESPN+ (gaining C-USA) for less total money paid out.

ESPN wants the AAC to sweep in and pick up the leftovers.

Best move would be XII expanding with 2 (BYU, Col St) to keep up the academic image. Sign a GOR to make it a bigger deal.

I agree, but would say BYU & Houston (However IMHO I think the BIG12 Presidents would want AFA as their #1 choice but the AFA wants no part of P5)
If BYU is out due to no Sundays and teh LGBT honor Code I think teh BIG12 goes with Houston and Cincy!

I then think that Big 12 and Pac 12 will start fighting iy out for who will be the bottom feeders of P-5 Conf. (However the Pac-12 might make a strike in the next year to stengthen their brand and value and send the BIG12 spinning out of control)

Espn is not going to let programs that they just negotiated deals with go to 8 programs that are trying to milk them for literally hundreds of millions of dollars. Although the general public which includes all of us on this board haven't heard a peep out of Espn, you'd better believe that the AAC programs and BYU have.

(08-03-2021 07:13 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 02:37 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 02:24 PM)freshtop Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 02:08 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  I think the assumption is that WVU would want AAC infill schools but that really isn't the case. WVU may not sign a GOR with the XII regardless.

I'd imagine that sometime between now and when the GOR expires a couple options are going to present themselves.

Option 1.) WVU and others get their golden ticket to another power conference. There is much rejoicing, the media payout goose keeps laying golden eggs.

Option 2.) The Big 12 stays at 8 and takes a massive hit to media revenue. Speculation is that it will drop to 9-15 mil per team.

Option 3.) ESPN convinces the Big 12 to take the upper echelon of the AAC, MWC, and/or BYU. They do this by offering a larger payout per team on average (say 17 mil per). They do this so that they can then water down the payouts to the AAC once it backfills with C-USA/SBC, and then continue to water down the payouts to SBC, etc. They end up with more content for ESPN+ (gaining C-USA) for less total money paid out.

ESPN wants the AAC to sweep in and pick up the leftovers.

Best move would be XII expanding with 2 (BYU, Col St) to keep up the academic image. Sign a GOR to make it a bigger deal.

I agree, but would say BYU & Houston (However IMHO I think the BIG12 Presidents would want AFA as their #1 choice but the AFA wants no part of P5)
If BYU is out due to no Sundays and teh LGBT honor Code I think teh BIG12 goes with Houston and Cincy!

BYU I see as a FB only addition.

Colorado St gives ISU/KSU/OSU another land grant brother. Yes their athletics are not impressive but the XII can afford 1 project.

The problem with going east is UC/UCF/USF would all rather be in the ACC and WVU the same thinking.

If you go to 10/9 with BYU/CSU now and then WVU goes to the ACC you don't lose anything in the process. You could even set a GOR around it to time it with the ACC GOR to allow WVU an easy exit.

Then if the PAC does get raided by the B1G the XII would be in a better position to take in Arizona St and Utah already having BYU/CSU in the conference. Then its time for the XIV or XVI expansion to get things to a P4.

(08-02-2021 10:52 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 02:37 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 02:24 PM)freshtop Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 02:08 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  I think the assumption is that WVU would want AAC infill schools but that really isn't the case. WVU may not sign a GOR with the XII regardless.

I'd imagine that sometime between now and when the GOR expires a couple options are going to present themselves.

Option 1.) WVU and others get their golden ticket to another power conference. There is much rejoicing, the media payout goose keeps laying golden eggs.

Option 2.) The Big 12 stays at 8 and takes a massive hit to media revenue. Speculation is that it will drop to 9-15 mil per team.

Option 3.) ESPN convinces the Big 12 to take the upper echelon of the AAC, MWC, and/or BYU. They do this by offering a larger payout per team on average (say 17 mil per). They do this so that they can then water down the payouts to the AAC once it backfills with C-USA/SBC, and then continue to water down the payouts to SBC, etc. They end up with more content for ESPN+ (gaining C-USA) for less total money paid out.

ESPN wants the AAC to sweep in and pick up the leftovers.

Best move would be XII expanding with 2 (BYU, Col St) to keep up the academic image. Sign a GOR to make it a bigger deal.

The Big 12 never had an academic image outside of Texas.

That is somewhat revisionist history. The original alignment included Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas, Kansas, Iowa State all AAU institutions. Baylor, while no Stanford, is very well respected academically. The Big 12 was never the PAC, B1G, or Ivy League, but it was also viewed as a higher academic pedigree vs the SEC. That was part of Texas' snobbery towards the SEC over the decades was that UT felt like it would be lowering itself with their associations. That has changed as the SEC has elevated their academic profiles, partly helped by snatching Missouri and Texas A&M and having Colorado and Nebraska flee to other environs.

Now the Big 12 is the worst academic league, but that wasn't always the case.

(08-03-2021 07:58 AM)Sicembear11 Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 10:52 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 02:37 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 02:24 PM)freshtop Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 02:08 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  I think the assumption is that WVU would want AAC infill schools but that really isn't the case. WVU may not sign a GOR with the XII regardless.

I'd imagine that sometime between now and when the GOR expires a couple options are going to present themselves.

Option 1.) WVU and others get their golden ticket to another power conference. There is much rejoicing, the media payout goose keeps laying golden eggs.

Option 2.) The Big 12 stays at 8 and takes a massive hit to media revenue. Speculation is that it will drop to 9-15 mil per team.

Option 3.) ESPN convinces the Big 12 to take the upper echelon of the AAC, MWC, and/or BYU. They do this by offering a larger payout per team on average (say 17 mil per). They do this so that they can then water down the payouts to the AAC once it backfills with C-USA/SBC, and then continue to water down the payouts to SBC, etc. They end up with more content for ESPN+ (gaining C-USA) for less total money paid out.

ESPN wants the AAC to sweep in and pick up the leftovers.

Best move would be XII expanding with 2 (BYU, Col St) to keep up the academic image. Sign a GOR to make it a bigger deal.

The Big 12 never had an academic image outside of Texas.

That is somewhat revisionist history. The original alignment included Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas, Kansas, Iowa State all AAU institutions. Baylor, while no Stanford, is very well respected academically. The Big 12 was never the PAC, B1G, or Ivy League, but it was also viewed as a higher academic pedigree vs the SEC. That was part of Texas' snobbery towards the SEC over the decades was that UT felt like it would be lowering itself with their associations. That has changed as the SEC has elevated their academic profiles, partly helped by snatching Missouri and Texas A&M and having Colorado and Nebraska flee to other environs.

Now the Big 12 is the worst academic league, but that wasn't always the case.

A spot-on post. I agree fully.

It's funny to me that people are surprised by the underhanded objectives that Bowlsby accused ESPN of doing. Didn't ESPN do the same things when they orchestrated the final demise of the Big East by suggesting that PITT, Syracuse & Louisville leave the conference and join the ACC. And then gave the ACC a new TV contract with record payouts. To me it's the exactly same scenario.

(08-02-2021 04:14 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 04:07 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 03:44 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  ESPN doesn't control the XII like it does the AAC.

XII could go west to tick them off ...

On the one hand, yes, they do not. On the other hand, UC and Houston are of some value to the Big12 in their own right.

There aren't enough spots nor suitable schools available to "bridging the gap" to WVU, but UC and Houston have earned a number of NCAA bids over the past six years. And no matter how big a whispering campaign that ESPN runs about the Big12 dissolving, they are two schools who are going to say "yes, how soon?" to an invite, as it will be good for their basketball recruiting as well to be in the same conference as Kansas.

And it goes without saying that the idea that the Remaining Eight University Presidents will endorse a strategy "to tick ESPN off" is conference board silliness.

Bruce think about the optics. The raid the AAC tried to pull together with ESPN.

Most people today are unaware of "the raid the AAC tried to pull together", but even so, all the optics required to establish that the raid was a dismal failure is the first school from the AAC accepting a Big12 spot.

If BYU is on the fence until it sees how things shake out, the Big12 can invite Houston and UC to have a 10 that they can stand pat with, and also in consultation with their new media partners after things settle down, they can determine if they want another two, and find out if BYU is willing to join or is going to stay independent.

________________

(08-03-2021 07:49 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  ... The problem with going east is UC/UCF/USF would all rather be in the ACC and WVU the same thinking. ...

Pragmatically, this is only a problem if any of those schools have a realistic chance of getting into the ACC. It seems that most of the CUSA, SBC and MAC schools also would rather be in the ACC, but it doesn't mean that desire has the slightest influence on the aftershocks of the TX/OK move.

(08-02-2021 09:26 PM)mvcfan76 Wrote:  

(08-02-2021 09:08 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  So let me get this straight. All of you think that Bowlsby writing a mean letter to ESPN has literally scared the shirts out of them and the AAC so much that they have both decided to roll over and take it in the rear. You all think that the mouse is going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to the L8 (a conference that they only have half the rights to) so that they can destroy the AAC that they have 100% of and then resign them again after 2025 to another great deal. Question, when has ESPN ever lost ? Does all of you think that ESPN didn't think all of this through before they started executing this ground plan starting with Texas/OU to the SEC and ending with the AAC getting most if not all of the L8 for about 20-25 million to cap their plan for a breakaway division. Everything that the L8 teams are thinking and saying is literally mirroring the old Big East/ACC events.

The problem for ESPN is that the remaining schools have made it very clear that aside from a p4 conference invite, those schools will stick together and make Texas pay every last penny they owe them. ESPN tried to use the AAC to disolve the Big 12 but the members of the 12 saw through ESPNs plan. That number for the TV deal that the AAC showed those big 12 schools was not some random number the mouse pulled out of its a$$. that number was the TV contract payouts that would allow ESPN to save money by avoiding the fees ut and ou owe the big 12. If that number was any higher then ESPN would be overpaying for AAC content and wouldnt be saving money at all by dissolving the big 12, because paying Tulsa 16 mil a year is also a waste of cash. Now since ESPN knows they are going to have to pay the big 12 they are going to look for ways to save money, ironically the quickest and fastest way to do that would be to extract the AACs bigger brands so they no longer have to overpay the lower value AAC schools 7 mill per year. This will allow the network to save some money. The idea that ESPN has some sort of philosophical or institutional desire to dissolve the big 12 is frankly asinine. They want to dissolve the big 12 to save money but it appears as if the 12 is going to hold on and get its one last payday and there is nothing espn can do to stop that if those 8 are committed. This is all business tactics im sure ESPN is pissed that they are going to have to pay but they arent sitting around like "curse you big 12 for making the smart short term business decision!" they understand whats going on, this is all a profit maximization game for them.

I’m afraid I don’t understand this logic at all. ESPN owes no fees to anyone. Furthermore, the GOR means the UT/OU rights STAY with the Big12 until the end of the current B12 TV contract in 2025—even if UT and OU start SEC play in 2022. This is a preexisting condition and would simply be an encumbrance the SEC would have to accept if they want UT/OU prior to 2025.

Thus, ESPN and FOX would split the home game rights to OU and UT in the SEC until 2025. But what about the away games? ESPN would also get the Rights to EIGHT more OU/UT SEC AWAY games each year due to their other deals with the SEC PLUS one more home UT game (due to the LHN deal). ESPN doesn’t have to share those with FOX.

So, basically, ESPN gets almost all the benefit of a 2022 SEC move by UT and OU and doesn’t need to ante up a dime to do it. It’s way more of an OU/UT problem—-not an ESPN problem.