(07-28-2021 02:22 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Look, B1G is going to flirt with FSU and GaTech sooner than later. Same with Clemson and the SEC. a spot may open down the line, but there is almost a nil chance both UC and WVU get in in this cycle.

It would blow my mind if UGA and UF wanted either of / or both of GT and FSU in at this point. I know it was offered in the past but now I just can't imagine. Same reason why I think Louisville and Clemson would never get in is because UK and South Carolina would attempt to block those moves. Unless each team was going to see an even greater increase financially than they are about to get having OU/TX

(07-28-2021 12:04 PM)chess Wrote:  West Virginia does not offer the population or eyeballs to make this happen. If they did, the school would be in the ACC.

Other ways to consider- What does WVU offer that, say, Connecticut doesn't offer? -Or Temple?

I don't know, can't say that I've ever watched a UCONN football game. WVU vs Va Tech and WVU vs Pitt would be must see TV for college football junkies.

(07-27-2021 04:33 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 12:22 PM)Statefan Wrote:  While "markets" as not as important as a "product" look at the market situation for West Va compared to Kansas and ISU:

Only the Charleston/Hunnington WVa and Clarksburg WVa are DMA's in West Virginia that Pittsburgh, VT, UVa, or even Louisville do not already penetrate.

ISU on the other hand includes Omaha Nebraska, Sioux Falls SD, Quad Cities Iowa and Illinois, Cedar Rapids, and Des Moines. All of that is new. It doesn't matter if ISU is the 2nd or 3rd most popular college in the DMA because Nebraska nor Iowa can be on television 24 hours a day.

Kansas includes the Kansas City Mo DMA, the St. Joseph Mo DMA, the Joplin Mo DMA, as well as Topeka and Wichita Kansas.

Because the ACC's starting basis is $15-20 million below the Big 10 what ever cuts that lead by say 33% is well worth it. $5-7 million lets say. And neither of them will attempt to run the conference.

Are you proposing that ISU and Kansas would boost the ACC per-team payout by about $6 million per team?

That's saying that they are worth 6 x 16 = 96/2 = $48 million each.

If either Kansas or Iowa State was worth $48 million to TV, they'd be anchoring the Big 12 right now.

IMO, they are each maybe worth 1/4 of that. I would think if the ACC added them they are more likely to take a per-school pay cut than get any kind of raise.

I am not asserting what I think ISU and Kansas are worth as by themselves, stand alone, all other things being equal. I am tossing out an estimate based on what they allow the ACC to do with ESPN.

1. An addition opens ESPN's contract with the ACC. That contract is currently undervalued.
2. The territory covered by ISU and Kansas is completely new to the ACC with gross overlaps such as that offered by West Va where Pitt, VT, UVa, and to a lesser degree Louisville overlaps into DMA's that would be considered West Va's DMA.
3. Most schools are of differing value to different conferences.
4. As far as media markets go, West Virginia only adds DMA's to the Southeastern Conference, not to the Big 10 or ACC. Applying this Kansas and ISU, ISU adds nothing to the Big 10 and Kansas adds nothing to the SEC.
5. The guess I mentioned is based on the above factors, specific to the locations of those schools and the ACC's particular situation with the main extra value being the opening of the contract for a significant adjustment.

Renegotiated contract is probably worth $4 million a school. Then each school adds about a million in value TO THE ACC. That's my guess.

(07-27-2021 04:39 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 12:23 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 12:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 11:56 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  No one is rushing to get into the small and shrinking West Virginia market. Convenient for the ACC to fill in a spot if Notre Dame joins for FB, but it's not happening just to happen. And I rather doubt WVU would be their top choice for ND's sidekick anyway.

Tuscaloosa. Gainesville and Baton Rouge aren't very large markets, but Alabama, Florida and LSU are extremely valuable because of the brand names.

Markets are IMO 2010-2011 cable subscription fee thinking. And they weren't all that much even then, because if markets were the key, the AAC would be arguably the most valuable conference in America. We've got markets coming out the Wazoo.

WVU does have a modest football brand. Not big, but not small. They are clearly a P5 football brand. That may count for something. I doubt it, as the ACC has never shown interest in them, but it's something.

I don't get the fixation on a single DMA for Statewide major universities.

LOL. It's not a 'fixation', it's just a representation of how markets are typically discussed.

But heck, throw in the states if you want - Alabama and Louisiana each have about 4.5 million people. That's not much more than half of the Houston metropolitan area.

But both are way more valuable than Houston.

I'm not sure I understand the point you are trying to make. Here is my point - where is UNC's or NC State's single DMA market in NC?

Raleigh - Durham (The Research Triangle)?
Charlotte (Metrolina)?
Greensboro - WS (The Piedmont Triad)?
Greenville SC - Asheville NC?
Norfolk Va - Elizabeth City NC?
Greenville NC?
Wilmington NC?
Myrtle Beach - Lumberton?

For a state school how can you say for example that Charlotte is not part of the core UNC and or NC State DMA? The value in a DMA is first and foremost the number of people. Second is what they like to watch on television.

Let's take Charlotte for example. It stretches from Gaffney and Lancaster SC to the Tri-State boarder with VA and TN.

UNC is the top college draw in this DMA
Clemson is second
NC State is third
South Carolina is 4th
Duke is 5th

Greenville-Asheville (60% of the population is in SC)

Clemson is first
UNC is second
South Carolina is third
NC State is fourth
Georgia if fifth
Tennessee is sixth

Hampton Roads - Elizabeth City (80% population in Va)

Va Tech is first
UVa is second
UNC is third
NC State is fourth
ECU is fifth
Duke is sixth

As we all know no one university can take up the tv space of 8-10 football spots on a given weekend. Being the most popular in a market is great, but you can still make a lot of money off 2, 3 and 4 if the underlying DMA has any money.

ISU is not going to be first in any of their DMA's, but they are going to be 2, 3 and 4 from Omaha to Rochester Minn, to Moline Illinois. Now when it comes to smaller, less state wide schools their home DMA would matter more.

Anyone recall how close the ACC and WVU got when the BE was being broken apart? It seemed they were part of that convo at that time too.... yet they went elsewhere.

WVU feels very confident about their situation. Take it for what its worth. Also worth noting with the ESPN news thats breaking, ESPN wanted 3-5 teams in the American. WVU was not one of them. Again, take it for what it's worth



And seriously, what does WVU offer the ACC over UConn? Are you kidding me? And to the guy who said WVU had more political power during the last round of realignment? WV currently has a senator that wields more political power than the damn president. This board never ceases to amaze me.

(07-28-2021 06:45 PM)OldGoldnBlue Wrote:  WVU feels very confident about their situation. Take it for what its worth. Also worth nothing with the ESPN news thats breaking, ESPN wanted 3-5 teams in the American. WVU was not one of them. Again, take it for what it's worth



And seriously, what does WVU offer the ACC over UConn? Are you kidding me? This board never ceases to amaze me.

UConn and Rice are the sacred cows of this board. They don’t have a lot of their own fans on the board, but there a ton of people who root for other schools who think they are the cat’s meow to college athletics.

Not that it necessarily means anything but WVU has started telling recruits we are going to the ACC. We all know Cincy was telling recruits they were going to the Big 12 for years.

Our QB commit even mentions being excited about the conference change in a radio interview.

(07-30-2021 10:13 AM)OldGoldnBlue Wrote:  Not that it necessarily means anything but WVU has started telling recruits we are going to the ACC. We all know Cincy was telling recruits they were going to the Big 12 for years.

Our QB commit even mentions being excited about the conference change in a radio interview.

Why does ESPN ante up now? Let's assume you even have the votes (which is probably not the case), is WVU going to keep Clemson and FSU happy long term? I doubt that.

If I were ESPN, I would break up the ACC into Old Big East division and ACC staples division, with WVU on board, with maybe some cross pollination here and there. You put them in a division with Pitt, VaTech, Miami and you have something there. But it just doesn't seem to be on the agenda, and ND certainly wouldn't want their football in such a division (consisting of old Big East teams).

WVU UC is the play, but it's just nostalgia at this point. Lil Big8 for now.

Something like:

Big East: WVU UC UL Pitt VaTech Miami Cuse BC

Atlantic Coast: UVa, NCSU, UNC, WF, FSU, Clemson, GTech, Duke

9 Conference games, protected:

FSU/Miami
VaTech/UVa
BC/Duke
Cuse/WF
WVU/NC State
UL/Clemson
Pitt/UNC
UC/GTech

Rotate the other opponents.

(07-28-2021 05:42 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 04:39 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 12:23 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 12:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 11:56 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  No one is rushing to get into the small and shrinking West Virginia market. Convenient for the ACC to fill in a spot if Notre Dame joins for FB, but it's not happening just to happen. And I rather doubt WVU would be their top choice for ND's sidekick anyway.

Tuscaloosa. Gainesville and Baton Rouge aren't very large markets, but Alabama, Florida and LSU are extremely valuable because of the brand names.

Markets are IMO 2010-2011 cable subscription fee thinking. And they weren't all that much even then, because if markets were the key, the AAC would be arguably the most valuable conference in America. We've got markets coming out the Wazoo.

WVU does have a modest football brand. Not big, but not small. They are clearly a P5 football brand. That may count for something. I doubt it, as the ACC has never shown interest in them, but it's something.

I don't get the fixation on a single DMA for Statewide major universities.

LOL. It's not a 'fixation', it's just a representation of how markets are typically discussed.

But heck, throw in the states if you want - Alabama and Louisiana each have about 4.5 million people. That's not much more than half of the Houston metropolitan area.

But both are way more valuable than Houston.

I'm not sure I understand the point you are trying to make. Here is my point - where is UNC's or NC State's single DMA market in NC?

Raleigh - Durham (The Research Triangle)?
Charlotte (Metrolina)?
Greensboro - WS (The Piedmont Triad)?
Greenville SC - Asheville NC?
Norfolk Va - Elizabeth City NC?
Greenville NC?
Wilmington NC?
Myrtle Beach - Lumberton?

For a state school how can you say for example that Charlotte is not part of the core UNC and or NC State DMA? The value in a DMA is first and foremost the number of people. Second is what they like to watch on television.

Let's take Charlotte for example. It stretches from Gaffney and Lancaster SC to the Tri-State boarder with VA and TN.

UNC is the top college draw in this DMA
Clemson is second
NC State is third
South Carolina is 4th
Duke is 5th

Greenville-Asheville (60% of the population is in SC)

Clemson is first
UNC is second
South Carolina is third
NC State is fourth
Georgia if fifth
Tennessee is sixth

Hampton Roads - Elizabeth City (80% population in Va)

Va Tech is first
UVa is second
UNC is third
NC State is fourth
ECU is fifth
Duke is sixth

As we all know no one university can take up the tv space of 8-10 football spots on a given weekend. Being the most popular in a market is great, but you can still make a lot of money off 2, 3 and 4 if the underlying DMA has any money.

ISU is not going to be first in any of their DMA's, but they are going to be 2, 3 and 4 from Omaha to Rochester Minn, to Moline Illinois. Now when it comes to smaller, less state wide schools their home DMA would matter more.

I don't care about DMAs, as IMO they don't mean all that much anymore. They meant something 10 years ago when the B1G could charge cable companies in New York/NJ higher carriage rates for the BTN with Rutgers in the area, and heck get the BTN on the cable service to begin with. That model is pretty much toast, IMO.

Brand value is what matters**, and TV ratings are one expression of that. LSU vs Alabama often draws big ratings because they are nationally famous. Sure, they get a billion viewers in Louisiana and Alabama, but they also draw viewers from across the country. Nobody outside of North Carolina cares about NC State. That matters because national advertisers want to draw viewers nationally.

NC State is of middling-P5 brand value. IMO they aren't worth being added by the SEC or B1G.

Now North Carolina, they have a much higher national profile. If the SEC was to expand again, or the B1G decides to expand, they would be a prime target. But it would have little to do with whose ratings in the Research Triangle or wherever are higher.

Just MO ...

** It always mattered most in reality, but there was a brief fever in the early 2010s when some got carried away about markets, the notion that mere presence in a market meant that a school "brought" that market to TV and the conference. Circa 2012, some Big East (soon to be AAC) fans actually thought that the stripped and backfilled Big East could command pretty big dollars because it was adding all of these new schools from markets like Houston, Memphis, Philadelphia, Orlando, New Orleans and Dallas. If anything proved how little markets actually mattered, it was the peanuts deal the AAC signed in 2012 despite all of those new big and booming markets under the tent.

(07-30-2021 10:27 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(07-30-2021 10:13 AM)OldGoldnBlue Wrote:  Not that it necessarily means anything but WVU has started telling recruits we are going to the ACC. We all know Cincy was telling recruits they were going to the Big 12 for years.

Our QB commit even mentions being excited about the conference change in a radio interview.

Why does ESPN ante up now? Let's assume you even have the votes (which is probably not the case), is WVU going to keep Clemson and FSU happy long term? I doubt that.

If I were ESPN, I would break up the ACC into Old Big East division and ACC staples division, with WVU on board, with maybe some cross pollination here and there. You put them in a division with Pitt, VaTech, Miami and you have something there. But it just doesn't seem to be on the agenda, and ND certainly wouldn't want their football in such a division (consisting of old Big East teams).

WVU UC is the play, but it's just nostalgia at this point. Lil Big8 for now.

Our people are very optimistic right now. Much more so than after the break up of the old Big East. I'm also pretty sure they aren't optimistic about being stuck in the Big 12. I don't think you'll hear any WVU news in the next couple weeks or so but I'd bet on hearing WVU to the ACC news within 6 months. Take it FWIW


As for WVU not making Clemson and FSU happy I agree that adding WVU alone wouldn't thrill them. However adding WVU would reopen their awful tv contract for negotiation. That's where you satisfy them. The ACC won't sit back and watch the SEC schools make 40 million more per team. So they are left with adding teams and renegotiating or getting raided. Adding the teams is a much preferable option to the ACC.

That being said opening the contract doesn't mean that ESPN is going to want to pay them SEC money, but I'd bet they would see a bump. That contract is extremely undervalued.