The impending move of Texas and Oklahoma, rightfully so, is driven by football - which will have their own ripple effects felt through all of FBS. However, the moves also have a strong impact on men's basketball, which could (inevitably) tilt the balance of tournament bids for the NCAAT. Some observations below.

- For the SEC, they are acquiring two programs with 68 NCAAT bids, eight F4s, sixteen E8s and twenty-one S16s. With those 68 NCAAT bids, the SEC has a combined 358 NCAAT bids across its 16-team membership, which puts its just below the ACC at 396. The B1G, for reference, has 308. This is a football-first move, but it greatly improves the value of SEC Basketball, which has steadily been growing over the past decade with strong hires of Bruce Pearl, Rick Barnes, Eric Musselman, Will Wade, Frank Martin and Ben Howland. SEC Basketball continues to grow and no longer be Kentucky, followed by everyone else. I've mentioned before, but Mike Tranghese deserves a ton of credit for encouraging the league to put more resources into men's basketball - it's definitely paying off.

- For the Big 12, it drops them to 199 total NCAAT bids. The league is still, at present, anchored by Kansas, and recent NCAAT Championship appearances by Texas Tech and Baylor (Champion). K-State, West Virginia, Iowa State and OK State are still historically strong and consistent programs, so the depth is still there. The league only has one traditional anchor in TCU, but they have made improvements under Dixon, so they aren't as subpar as they had been in years past.

- the ACC is still the top overall league, between NCAAT bids and NCAA Championships.

- if the B1G were to take Kansas, they would acquire 49 NCAAT bids and three national championships, getting them to 367 and 14, respectively. That would bring them closer to the ACC, but still not enough to overtake them IMO.

- as long as the Big 12 has Kansas, they will remain a power basketball conference. However, if Kansas finds a life-raft out of the Big 12, then the Big 12 takes a dramatic hit, where they lose their top three programs, and then lack a national championship-level program.

- if the Big 12 were to take from the top of the AAC (Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF), it would severely cripple the AAC as a men's basketball league. In addition to losing UConn, it will have lost all of the top programs, leaving the likes of Temple, Tulsa, Wichita State and SMU as the only programs that have made a tournament this decade.

- if/when the Big 12 takes from the AAC, that would really cement the ACC, Big 12, Big 10, Big East, PAC 12, SEC and A10 (barely) as the only true regular multi-bid conferences in basketball. I'd be curious to see what would happen with Wichita State, especially if the payouts for them radically drop.

- the Big East's next TV deal is also up in 2025 with Fox. Be curious to see what happens there. I keeping hearing that a continued partnership is all but certain, including a bump up in pay. I wonder if Fox would like the BE to go beyond 11 (but I don't see Winter programming being affected much, if at all).

- Conference Challenges to keep an eye on moving forward: B1G/Big East (Gavitt Games), Big 12/SEC Challenge, ACC-B1G Challenge, Big East/Big 12 (Battle).

(07-28-2021 12:45 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Big 12/SEC Challenge

Pretty sure the SEC just won that one forever.

As for the B12, I've posted this elsewhere but I think they should take a run at Gonzaga. They're never going to replace Oklahoma and Texas football, but with the Zags they can actually upgrade their basketball. No matter what form the Big 12 takes after all is said and done (unless they're left with just TCU and Kansas State), it's going to be a big step up by every metric from the WCC. Add BYU for all sports and Boise State for football, and you're looking at a Big 12 that can still challenge the Pac-12 and ACC for third among football conferences while potentially passing the ACC and Big Ten for best men's basketball conference (and Gonzaga women are pretty damn good in their own right, so that makes the Big 12 even stronger there too).

A few thoughts on this topic:

* I agree fully with GW11 that the SEC's serious attention toward hoops is paying off hugely. I've followed the league for about 50 years and this is about the best it's ever been. Adding OU and UT will make the league that much stronger.

* If the Big 12 lost only Kansas and added, say, BYU, Cincy, Houston, Memphis and UCF to go with Baylor, KState, ISU, OSU, TCU, Texas Tech and West Va, I would still consider that a "power" league in men's basketball.

* If the Big 12 keeps Kansas and adds Cincy, Houston, Memphis and UCF ... that's a very impressive impressive men's hoops league.

* In a scenario in which Cincy, Houston, Memphis leave the AAC, I foresee Wichita (MVC) and Temple (A10) leaving, too. That would leave Tulane, USF, ECU, SMU and Tulsa to rebuild the men's basketball side of the league.

I see the leagues ranking like this in the future (depending on realignment):

1A: ACC

1B: SEC (closes the gap with the ACC with the additions of OU and UT and creates some separation from Big Ten)

3. Big Ten

4. tie: Pac-12, Big East and Big 12 (with Kansas staying and the hypothetical addition of UC, UH and UM)

7. A10 (with the addition of Temple)

8. MWC (could be No. 7 if it lures Wichita, SMU and Tulsa)

9. WCC

10. tie: MVC, C-USA, AAC

(07-28-2021 02:15 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  A few thoughts on this topic:

* I agree fully with GW11 that the SEC's serious attention toward hoops is paying off hugely. I've followed the league for about 50 years and this is about the best it's ever been. Adding OU and UT will make the league that much stronger.

* If the Big 12 lost only Kansas and added, say, BYU, Cincy, Houston, Memphis and UCF to go with Baylor, KState, ISU, OSU, TCU, Texas Tech and West Va, I would still consider that a "power" league in men's basketball.

* If the Big 12 keeps Kansas and adds Cincy, Houston, Memphis and UCF ... that's a very impressive impressive men's hoops league.

* In a scenario in which Cincy, Houston, Memphis leave the AAC, I foresee Wichita (MVC) and Temple (A10) leaving, too. That would leave Tulane, USF, ECU, SMU and Tulsa to rebuild the men's basketball side of the league.

I see the leagues ranking like this in the future (depending on realignment):

1A: ACC

1B: SEC (closes the gap with the ACC with the additions of OU and UT and creates some separation from Big Ten)

3. Big Ten

4. tie: Pac-12, Big East and Big 12 (with Kansas staying and the hypothetical addition of UC, UH and UM)

7. A10 (with the addition of Temple)

8. MWC (could be No. 7 if it lures Wichita, SMU and Tulsa)

9. WCC

10. tie: MVC, C-USA, AAC

The MVC is already ahead of CUSA, how would adding wichita make them tied?

(07-28-2021 02:54 PM)mvcfan76 Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 02:15 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  A few thoughts on this topic:

* I agree fully with GW11 that the SEC's serious attention toward hoops is paying off hugely. I've followed the league for about 50 years and this is about the best it's ever been. Adding OU and UT will make the league that much stronger.

* If the Big 12 lost only Kansas and added, say, BYU, Cincy, Houston, Memphis and UCF to go with Baylor, KState, ISU, OSU, TCU, Texas Tech and West Va, I would still consider that a "power" league in men's basketball.

* If the Big 12 keeps Kansas and adds Cincy, Houston, Memphis and UCF ... that's a very impressive impressive men's hoops league.

* In a scenario in which Cincy, Houston, Memphis leave the AAC, I foresee Wichita (MVC) and Temple (A10) leaving, too. That would leave Tulane, USF, ECU, SMU and Tulsa to rebuild the men's basketball side of the league.

I see the leagues ranking like this in the future (depending on realignment):

1A: ACC

1B: SEC (closes the gap with the ACC with the additions of OU and UT and creates some separation from Big Ten)

3. Big Ten

4. tie: Pac-12, Big East and Big 12 (with Kansas staying and the hypothetical addition of UC, UH and UM)

7. A10 (with the addition of Temple)

8. MWC (could be No. 7 if it lures Wichita, SMU and Tulsa)

9. WCC

10. tie: MVC, C-USA, AAC

The MVC is already ahead of CUSA, how would adding wichita make them tied?

You'll learn quickly on this site who actually follows mid-major hoops, and who's just talking out of their you-know-what.

In terms of producing NBA players per school it goes:

1. ACC
2. Pac-12
3. Big 12
4. SEC
5. Big East
6. Big Ten

A lot of dead weight in B1G basketball as far as NBA talent goes, but their top is equal with others (I think the B1G has more depth players not quite pro level that give them stronger base teams that stars can pull up more). ACC, B12 and P12 are actually really close, SEC not far behind. But Media and Public (gained from media) perception is different with the ACC seen as clearly top with the B1G next and the Pac-12 trailing the others.

The reality is the Big 12 will drop, struggle some in recruiting, due to lower profile. Not down to AAC or A10 level but below the other 5 major conferences.

Seriously were I the B12 I would consider (beyond BYU) a basketball school without football and with high major level resources such as Dayton as an addition to stay competitive and able to gain 4+ bids every year, keeping the profile of MBB similar to the Big East. A good basketball school without football would not eat into the pie near as much as a football school, while helping raise the league profile. Dayton is the logical school because they have a top 30 or so budget and resources in MBB, basically Big East level, but in a league a step down -- they would definitely be able to step up recruiting with the higher profile. I doubt the idea has crossed anyone's mind in the Big 12, but that is what I'd do to try and stay relevant.

(07-28-2021 03:17 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  In terms of producing NBA players per school it goes:

1. ACC
2. Pac-12
3. Big 12
4. SEC
5. Big East
6. Big Ten

A lot of dead weight in B1G basketball as far as NBA talent goes, but their top is equal with others (I think the B1G has more depth players not quite pro level that give them stronger base teams that stars can pull up more). ACC, B12 and P12 are actually really close, SEC not far behind. But Media and Public (gained from media) perception is different with the ACC seen as clearly top with the B1G next and the Pac-12 trailing the others.

The reality is the Big 12 will drop, struggle some in recruiting, due to lower profile. Not down to AAC or A10 level but below the other 5 major conferences.

Seriously were I the B12 I would consider (beyond BYU) a basketball school without football and with high major level resources such as Dayton as an addition to stay competitive and able to gain 4+ bids every year, keeping the profile of MBB similar to the Big East. A good basketball school without football would not eat into the pie near as much as a football school, while helping raise the league profile. Dayton is the logical school because they have a top 30 or so budget and resources in MBB, basically Big East level, but in a league a step down -- they would definitely be able to step up recruiting with the higher profile. I doubt the idea has crossed anyone's mind in the Big 12, but that is what I'd do to try and stay relevant.

Based on 2020-21 rosters the Big 10 is ahead of the Big East

And to show how dominate two programs (Kentucky and Duke) are, Kentucky had 32, Duke 29, UNC was next at 13, with AZ, KS, Texas, Michigan and UCLA with 11

ACC 88
SEC 82
Pac-12 65
Big 12 45
Big Ten 44
Big East 35
American 18
MWC 18

No other conference was above 10.

Take out the top school in each conference and you get:

ACC 59
Pac-12 54
SEC 50
Big 12 34
Big Ten 33
Big East 24
American 13
MWC 14

ACC 88 = 5.87 / school
SEC 82 = 5.85 / school
Pac-12 65 = 5.41 / school

Big 12 45 = 4.5 / school

Big East 35 = 3.18 / school
Big Ten 44 = 3.14 / school

American 18 = 1.64 /school
MWC 18 = 1.64 /school

That's a per school break down. The B1G and Big East trail. The Pac-12 has plenty of talent, it's just they had a back to back to back to back under performance at the NCAA plus CBS and ESPN bashing that negatively impacted the perception. MWC gets that too from ESPN promoting the AAC. We out West just say "East Coast Bias" and by east coast we mean everyone east of the Colorado/Kansas border (yeah messed up to think of Iowa as coastal anything, but I hear Californians refer to Utah as the Midwest)

I guess my mind reversed the SEC and B12. But my point still stands the B12 needs to think about a Basketball add to remain relevant, think in terms of maintaining 4 bids.

If the Big 12 added Houston, Cincy, Memphis, and UCF you could easily argue that the basketball league would be even better than it was before. Cincy and Memphis are nuts about basketball, Houston has been on fire since Sampson, and even UCF has improved a ton. That's probably the 2nd or 3rd strongest basketball league right there.

The Big 12 will host its men's basketball tournament in Kansas City through 2025. Wonder if that location gets changed at all with the departures of UT/OU. I believe the SEC is locked-in at Nashville for the next several years. Wonder if they toss in Houston as an alternative site every few years (or at least New Orleans a bit more regularly). I think the AAC only is in Ft. Worth through 2022; depending on their makeup after this, they may be looking to change things up too.

(07-28-2021 04:00 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  If the Big 12 added Houston, Cincy, Memphis, and UCF you could easily argue that the basketball league would be even better than it was before. Cincy and Memphis are nuts about basketball, Houston has been on fire since Sampson, and even UCF has improved a ton. That's probably the 2nd or 3rd strongest basketball league right there.

It would arguably be deeper too. That would be a very strong basketball league. I for one hope to see something like that play out (and a continuation of the BE/B12 Battle).

(07-28-2021 02:54 PM)mvcfan76 Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 02:15 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  A few thoughts on this topic:

* I agree fully with GW11 that the SEC's serious attention toward hoops is paying off hugely. I've followed the league for about 50 years and this is about the best it's ever been. Adding OU and UT will make the league that much stronger.

* If the Big 12 lost only Kansas and added, say, BYU, Cincy, Houston, Memphis and UCF to go with Baylor, KState, ISU, OSU, TCU, Texas Tech and West Va, I would still consider that a "power" league in men's basketball.

* If the Big 12 keeps Kansas and adds Cincy, Houston, Memphis and UCF ... that's a very impressive impressive men's hoops league.

* In a scenario in which Cincy, Houston, Memphis leave the AAC, I foresee Wichita (MVC) and Temple (A10) leaving, too. That would leave Tulane, USF, ECU, SMU and Tulsa to rebuild the men's basketball side of the league.

I see the leagues ranking like this in the future (depending on realignment):

1A: ACC

1B: SEC (closes the gap with the ACC with the additions of OU and UT and creates some separation from Big Ten)

3. Big Ten

4. tie: Pac-12, Big East and Big 12 (with Kansas staying and the hypothetical addition of UC, UH and UM)

7. A10 (with the addition of Temple)

8. MWC (could be No. 7 if it lures Wichita, SMU and Tulsa)

9. WCC

10. tie: MVC, C-USA, AAC

The MVC is already ahead of CUSA, how would adding wichita make them tied?

Because in this hypothetical Wichita went to the MWC and not the MVC?

(07-28-2021 03:09 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 02:54 PM)mvcfan76 Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 02:15 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  A few thoughts on this topic:

* I agree fully with GW11 that the SEC's serious attention toward hoops is paying off hugely. I've followed the league for about 50 years and this is about the best it's ever been. Adding OU and UT will make the league that much stronger.

* If the Big 12 lost only Kansas and added, say, BYU, Cincy, Houston, Memphis and UCF to go with Baylor, KState, ISU, OSU, TCU, Texas Tech and West Va, I would still consider that a "power" league in men's basketball.

* If the Big 12 keeps Kansas and adds Cincy, Houston, Memphis and UCF ... that's a very impressive impressive men's hoops league.

* In a scenario in which Cincy, Houston, Memphis leave the AAC, I foresee Wichita (MVC) and Temple (A10) leaving, too. That would leave Tulane, USF, ECU, SMU and Tulsa to rebuild the men's basketball side of the league.

I see the leagues ranking like this in the future (depending on realignment):

1A: ACC

1B: SEC (closes the gap with the ACC with the additions of OU and UT and creates some separation from Big Ten)

3. Big Ten

4. tie: Pac-12, Big East and Big 12 (with Kansas staying and the hypothetical addition of UC, UH and UM)

7. A10 (with the addition of Temple)

8. MWC (could be No. 7 if it lures Wichita, SMU and Tulsa)

9. WCC

10. tie: MVC, C-USA, AAC

The MVC is already ahead of CUSA, how would adding wichita make them tied?

You'll learn quickly on this site who actually follows mid-major hoops, and who's just talking out of their you-know-what.

As a Middle Tennessee State grad, I follow C-USA hoops fairly well but will admit I'm no expert. Seems C-USA and MVC are very close. But getting Wichita would clearly elevate the Valley.

Final Sagarin Ratings (for whatever it's worth).

CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%

1 BIG TEN = 85.08 85.13 ( 1) 14 85.13 ( 1)
2 BIG 12 = 84.43 83.82 ( 2) 10 84.07 ( 2)
3 ATLANTIC COAST = 82.36 81.82 ( 5) 15 81.97 ( 3)
4 SOUTHEASTERN = 82.01 81.94 ( 3) 14 81.96 ( 4)
5 PAC-12 = 81.88 81.74 ( 6) 12 81.79 ( 6)
6 BIG EAST = 81.81 81.93 ( 4) 11 81.93 ( 5)
7 AMER. ATHLETIC = 77.66 78.28 ( 7) 11 78.01 ( 7)
8 WEST COAST = 76.51 76.89 ( 8) 10 76.53 ( 8)
9 ATLANTIC 10 = 75.75 75.22 ( 9) 14 75.44 ( 9)
10 MOUNTAIN WEST = 73.91 73.57 ( 10) 11 73.82 ( 10)
11 MISSOURI VALLEY = 72.98 73.56 ( 11) 10 73.32 ( 11)
12 CONFERENCE USA = 72.11 71.98 ( 12) 14 72.02 ( 12)

(07-28-2021 04:00 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  If the Big 12 added Houston, Cincy, Memphis, and UCF you could easily argue that the basketball league would be even better than it was before. Cincy and Memphis are nuts about basketball, Houston has been on fire since Sampson, and even UCF has improved a ton. That's probably the 2nd or 3rd strongest basketball league right there.

I feel the Big 12 would be as good — and perhaps better — with those four than it has been with OU and UT. The trio of UH, UC and UM hangs well with the duo of OU and UT. And UCF is an improving men's hoops program with a legit coach and very nice facility.

But the Big 12 as the second or third strongest? Maybe certain years.

(07-28-2021 04:09 PM)e-parade Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 02:54 PM)mvcfan76 Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 02:15 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  A few thoughts on this topic:

* I agree fully with GW11 that the SEC's serious attention toward hoops is paying off hugely. I've followed the league for about 50 years and this is about the best it's ever been. Adding OU and UT will make the league that much stronger.

* If the Big 12 lost only Kansas and added, say, BYU, Cincy, Houston, Memphis and UCF to go with Baylor, KState, ISU, OSU, TCU, Texas Tech and West Va, I would still consider that a "power" league in men's basketball.

* If the Big 12 keeps Kansas and adds Cincy, Houston, Memphis and UCF ... that's a very impressive impressive men's hoops league.

* In a scenario in which Cincy, Houston, Memphis leave the AAC, I foresee Wichita (MVC) and Temple (A10) leaving, too. That would leave Tulane, USF, ECU, SMU and Tulsa to rebuild the men's basketball side of the league.

I see the leagues ranking like this in the future (depending on realignment):

1A: ACC

1B: SEC (closes the gap with the ACC with the additions of OU and UT and creates some separation from Big Ten)

3. Big Ten

4. tie: Pac-12, Big East and Big 12 (with Kansas staying and the hypothetical addition of UC, UH and UM)

7. A10 (with the addition of Temple)

8. MWC (could be No. 7 if it lures Wichita, SMU and Tulsa)

9. WCC

10. tie: MVC, C-USA, AAC

The MVC is already ahead of CUSA, how would adding wichita make them tied?

Because in this hypothetical Wichita went to the MWC and not the MVC?

mvcfan76 read it correctly. He had Wichita leaving for the MVC (see bold), thus he had MVC+Wichita tied with CUSA, which implies he had the current MVC below CUSA, even though the MVC is clearly better.

The qualifier "could be no. 7 if it lures Wichita, SMU, and Tulsa" means the rankings would change if Wichita/SMU/Tulsa ended up in the MWC, but that the default ranking assumes WSU in the MVC and SMU/Tulsa in the AAC - as he clearly lays out in the final asterisk.

The most interesting potential basketball ramification to me (outside of who ends up in the Big 12) is what happens to Gonzaga if BYU goes to the Big 12. That's the one major power school outside of the P5/Big East that can totally change the desirability of a basketball league.

With UNC, Duke, and to some extent Syracuse facing uncertain futures with new coaches coming on, you can argue that the SEC is positioned to surpass the ACC as the best conference in basketball in the future, adding Oklahoma and Texas will only add to that dominance.

(07-28-2021 04:00 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  If the Big 12 added Houston, Cincy, Memphis, and UCF you could easily argue that the basketball league would be even better than it was before. Cincy and Memphis are nuts about basketball, Houston has been on fire since Sampson, and even UCF has improved a ton. That's probably the 2nd or 3rd strongest basketball league right there.

Problem is you get their football teams which costs you far more in distributions than you get back in revenue. Big negative.

That's why I suggest adding basketball only school like Dayton that doesn't cost you anything on the football side. It's all about the net revenue per school.

(07-28-2021 04:48 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The most interesting potential basketball ramification to me (outside of who ends up in the Big 12) is what happens to Gonzaga if BYU goes to the Big 12. That's the one major power school outside of the P5/Big East that can totally change the desirability of a basketball league.

What about the Big East?

(07-28-2021 04:48 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The most interesting potential basketball ramification to me (outside of who ends up in the Big 12) is what happens to Gonzaga if BYU goes to the Big 12. That's the one major power school outside of the P5/Big East that can totally change the desirability of a basketball league.

With news breaking that the Big 12 is about to implode, I don't think BYU will be moving, if they even were offered by the Big 12. But even if they did move, Gonzaga probably would not. They don't offer football, ruling out the Big Sky and are too far away from the Big East. No P4 will even give them a curious glance.