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Re-alignment reality
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Claw Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Re-alignment reality
Just for fun, let's say the American teams all turn down the Big Leftovers and no one defects.

Does that make the American teams better as a group? Or, does it equate to turning down a promotion and solidify them where they are today forever?

(Should I copyright "Big Leftovers"? Maybe I should...)
07-28-2021 02:53 PM
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AssyrianDuke Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Re-alignment reality
(07-28-2021 01:18 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(07-28-2021 01:05 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  
(07-28-2021 12:44 PM)bullet Wrote:  [quote='Attackcoog' pid='17523598' dateline='1627489734']
History says otherwise. That’s why most of the time the ship doesn’t sink after taking a realignment hit.

See Big East (now AAC).
[/quote

In the AAC only three Big East teams remain. Cincinnati, South Florida, and Temple. The rest backfilled from elsewhere.

*** SMUstang ***

Which shows that schools DO in fact join a sinking ship.

Hate to agree with an ODU fan, but the logic is sound.
07-28-2021 03:23 PM
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otown Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Re-alignment reality
(07-28-2021 12:04 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  The SWC was the only one to collapse outright and so is an anomaly. Every member of the SWC had a destination conference lined up. There was no reason to keep the SWC alive at that point. The Big East survived in a diminished capacity but as an FBS conference. The Big West and WAC both dropped football but carried on as non-FB conferences. The Big 12 is likely to follow the Big East/AAC model and keep on ticking, especially considering it hasn't yet lost its autonomous status.

From what I understand, the big 12 requires 75% vote to dissolve. So unless 6 of the remaining 8 get a P5 lifeboat...... those remaining 3 would never vote to dissolve because they would lose out on hundreds of millions of exit fees and tournament credits. They would even invite cusa teams to keep it alive if that was what it took...... we are talking a huge amount of money
07-28-2021 03:33 PM
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SMUstang Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Re-alignment reality
It will be interesting to see what happens. Today there is no C-USA to pick apart like Aresco did for the Big East. If it happens again it will probably be the AAC and MWC that gets boned. When the SWC was dissolved, 4 schools were left as orphans. It would have been 6 if Texas had had their way. In the Big XII, there are 8 orphans. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/35e...&h=550

*** SMUstang ***
(This post was last modified: 07-28-2021 03:52 PM by SMUstang.)
07-28-2021 03:50 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Re-alignment reality
(07-28-2021 03:33 PM)otown Wrote:  
(07-28-2021 12:04 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  The SWC was the only one to collapse outright and so is an anomaly. Every member of the SWC had a destination conference lined up. There was no reason to keep the SWC alive at that point. The Big East survived in a diminished capacity but as an FBS conference. The Big West and WAC both dropped football but carried on as non-FB conferences. The Big 12 is likely to follow the Big East/AAC model and keep on ticking, especially considering it hasn't yet lost its autonomous status.

From what I understand, the big 12 requires 75% vote to dissolve. So unless 6 of the remaining 8 get a P5 lifeboat...... those remaining 3 would never vote to dissolve because they would lose out on hundreds of millions of exit fees and tournament credits. They would even invite cusa teams to keep it alive if that was what it took...... we are talking a huge amount of money

Wouldn’t matter anyway. The schools with intent to join another conference are considered to be withdrawing schools and lose their voting rights. So even if only 3 schools with no life boat remain—-the vote to dissolve would be 3-0 against dissolution.
07-28-2021 03:56 PM
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Bronco85 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Re-alignment reality
(07-28-2021 03:33 PM)otown Wrote:  
(07-28-2021 12:04 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  The SWC was the only one to collapse outright and so is an anomaly. Every member of the SWC had a destination conference lined up. There was no reason to keep the SWC alive at that point. The Big East survived in a diminished capacity but as an FBS conference. The Big West and WAC both dropped football but carried on as non-FB conferences. The Big 12 is likely to follow the Big East/AAC model and keep on ticking, especially considering it hasn't yet lost its autonomous status.

From what I understand, the big 12 requires 75% vote to dissolve. So unless 6 of the remaining 8 get a P5 lifeboat...... those remaining 3 would never vote to dissolve because they would lose out on hundreds of millions of exit fees and tournament credits. They would even invite cusa teams to keep it alive if that was what it took...... we are talking a huge amount of money


Isn't that just what the BE leftovers did (collect the exit fees and rebuild)? The WAC and BWC did the same (many times) until they literally sank to the bottom of the FBS (D1A) conference hierarchy and there was no longer another conference to raid (not even from the FCS). That is certainly not true for the B12, even if it gets down to 3 teams. One of the truly odd things about all this conference shuffling is how the WAC (and ASUN) has risen from the dead and moved up a bit on the conference ladder.
07-28-2021 03:58 PM
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JSchmack Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Re-alignment reality
Even if the Big 12 gets $8 million each from a future TV deal without Texas and Oklahoma...
1. That's still more than the $6.8 million the AAC gets.
2. The Big 12 has their seat at the table in the NCAA, and for now until the next CFP agreement, while the AAC does not and ain't getting one.
3. Six of the eight remaining Big 12 schools have had BCS/P5 status and the significantly higher money that goes with for DECADES.
4. The brand equity of the Big 12 is better than the American, so even if they merged into one league (not happening either), they'd be the Big 12.


The AAC play of saying they'd PURSUE Big 12 members was the wrong move. They need to reach out and say "We are here if you need us; or if you want to talk of a merger." And wait for their calls. Because if the AAC goes chasing Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor and Kansas, they are going to see the Big 12 raid their best programs. They NEED Houston and Cincinnati, and probably UCF and Memphis.

There's no way TCU is crawling to SMU's conference. They've avoided each other for three decades.
There's no way Oklahoma State is crawling to Tulsa's conference.
There's no way Kansas and Kansas State are crawling to Wichita State's conference.

Which means the Big 12 will vote to add AAC members before joining the AAC.
07-29-2021 01:48 PM
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SMUstang Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Re-alignment reality
(07-29-2021 01:48 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  Even if the Big 12 gets $8 million each from a future TV deal without Texas and Oklahoma...
1. That's still more than the $6.8 million the AAC gets.
2. The Big 12 has their seat at the table in the NCAA, and for now until the next CFP agreement, while the AAC does not and ain't getting one.
3. Six of the eight remaining Big 12 schools have had BCS/P5 status and the significantly higher money that goes with for DECADES.
4. The brand equity of the Big 12 is better than the American, so even if they merged into one league (not happening either), they'd be the Big 12.


The AAC play of saying they'd PURSUE Big 12 members was the wrong move. They need to reach out and say "We are here if you need us; or if you want to talk of a merger." And wait for their calls. Because if the AAC goes chasing Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor and Kansas, they are going to see the Big 12 raid their best programs. They NEED Houston and Cincinnati, and probably UCF and Memphis.

There's no way TCU is crawling to SMU's conference. They've avoided each other for three decades.
There's no way Oklahoma State is crawling to Tulsa's conference.
There's no way Kansas and Kansas State are crawling to Wichita State's conference.

Which means the Big 12 will vote to add AAC members before joining the AAC.

TCU has hardly avoided SMU for 3 decades. They play every year and have for 100 years. (SMU has the Iron Skillet). True TCU looks down their noses at SMU since joining the Big XII. But they have been rivals for years and in the same conference for most of those years. Also Okey St looks down their noses at Tulsa since joining the Big XII. And Wichita St, despite being the biggest city in Kansas, is looked down upon by Kansas and K-St.

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(This post was last modified: 07-29-2021 02:30 PM by SMUstang.)
07-29-2021 02:27 PM
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JSchmack Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Re-alignment reality
(07-29-2021 02:27 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  
(07-29-2021 01:48 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  Even if the Big 12 gets $8 million each from a future TV deal without Texas and Oklahoma...
1. That's still more than the $6.8 million the AAC gets.
2. The Big 12 has their seat at the table in the NCAA, and for now until the next CFP agreement, while the AAC does not and ain't getting one.
3. Six of the eight remaining Big 12 schools have had BCS/P5 status and the significantly higher money that goes with for DECADES.
4. The brand equity of the Big 12 is better than the American, so even if they merged into one league (not happening either), they'd be the Big 12.


The AAC play of saying they'd PURSUE Big 12 members was the wrong move. They need to reach out and say "We are here if you need us; or if you want to talk of a merger." And wait for their calls. Because if the AAC goes chasing Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor and Kansas, they are going to see the Big 12 raid their best programs. They NEED Houston and Cincinnati, and probably UCF and Memphis.

There's no way TCU is crawling to SMU's conference. They've avoided each other for three decades.
There's no way Oklahoma State is crawling to Tulsa's conference.
There's no way Kansas and Kansas State are crawling to Wichita State's conference.

Which means the Big 12 will vote to add AAC members before joining the AAC.

TCU has hardly avoided SMU for 3 decades. They play every year and have for 100 years. (SMU has the Iron Skillet). True TCU looks down their noses at SMU since joining the Big XII. But they have been rivals for years and in the same conference for most of those years. Also Okey St looks down their noses at Tulsa since joining the Big XII. And Wichita St, despite being the biggest city in Kansas, is looked down upon by Kansas and K-St.

*** SMUstang ***

Being conference mates, I mean. TCU left for the WAC for C-USA, and SMU joined C-USA ... when TCU left for the MWC. Then SMU went to the Big East/AAC when TCU left for the Big 12.

"look down their nose at" is usually the sign that they don't want them in the conference.


The whole Big 12 calling out ESPN thing is because it is totally crazy for the B12 remaining 8 to join the AAC, and not the other way around.

The ONLY THING that the 8 joining the AAC does... is get ESPN out of the $630 million in commitments they have a Big 12 conference through 2025.


A wise man once told me "the answer to every questions is usually money. Follow the money and you understand why things happen."
07-29-2021 09:48 PM
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Scoochpooch1 Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Re-alignment reality
(07-28-2021 11:32 AM)b2b Wrote:  Who are you trying to convince?

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Himself
07-29-2021 09:52 PM
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Reverend Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Re-alignment reality
Big 12 isn't going anywhere and if they do feel pressure they will do the raiding and that will be on the AAC. If they go for BYU the only way BYU comes is with a travel partner / rival in Boise State. No way they play Utah, Utah State, and Boise State all OOC.
07-29-2021 10:03 PM
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Side.Show.Joe Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Re-alignment reality
(07-28-2021 11:05 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  No one is going to join a sinking ship. And it won't be certain that the ship is sinking until all of the players have spoken.

*** SMUstang ***

This is also a reality of re-alignment...

[Image: ?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.azquotes.com%2Fpictu...amp;nofb=1]
07-29-2021 10:14 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Re-alignment reality
(07-28-2021 11:28 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  History says otherwise. That’s why most of the time the ship doesn’t sink after taking a realignment hit.

Yes, back in 2011-2012, every backfill school the Big East invited basically said "yes" instantly, despite the fact that the Big East ship was on fire stem to stern and was taking on copious quantities of water below deck.

The only thing I disagree with is that from a USF perspective, the ship did in fact sink. It was just dredged up from the bottom and has floated around the sea aimlessly as a ghost of its former self since then.
(This post was last modified: 07-29-2021 10:34 PM by quo vadis.)
07-29-2021 10:31 PM
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USAFMEDIC Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Re-alignment reality
(07-28-2021 11:28 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  History says otherwise. That’s why most of the time the ship doesn’t sink after taking a realignment hit.
The Big XII has been here before. They will survive.
07-29-2021 10:55 PM
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CougarRed Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Re-alignment reality
New Pac 16?

West Division - Original Pac 8

East Division - Below
Ariz St
Ariz
Colo
Utah
Okla St
Kansas
Texas Tech
Houston

That leaves West Virginia, Baylor, TCU, Iowa St and Kansas St to fight for spots in the ACC or join the American.
07-30-2021 12:02 AM
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3BNole Online
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Post: #36
RE: Re-alignment reality
(07-28-2021 11:38 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  
(07-28-2021 11:34 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote:  
(07-28-2021 11:32 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  
(07-28-2021 11:28 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  History says otherwise. That’s why most of the time the ship doesn’t sink after taking a realignment hit.

It did in the case of the SWC, the Big East, the WAC, etc.

The Big East and WAC still exist. Heck, the Big East (now formally known as the AAC) still plays FBS football! Just at the G5 level now instead of BCS.

Yes but where are West Virginia, Pittsburg, Syracuse, Rutgers, Louisville, and Connecticut playing now? Not in the AAC. Not to mention Boston College, Florida State, Miami, or Virginia Tech who the ACC poached because of the Big East's poor media rights deal and lack of foresight, before any of the AAC schools were considered.

*** SMUstang ***

I’d just like to point out that FSU was never part of the Big East. That’s all. Continue on!
07-30-2021 12:33 AM
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Post: #37
RE: Re-alignment reality
(07-30-2021 12:02 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  New Pac 16?

West Division - Original Pac 8

East Division - Below
Ariz St
Ariz
Colo
Utah
Okla St
Kansas-pretty sure they're headed to the B1G eventually.
Texas Tech
Houston-(as much as I like Houston, and I really do, I can't see this happening due to academics and a lack of a statewide fanbase, IMO. Remember that the Pac 12 likes to think of itself as the West Coast's version of the Ivy League. Knowing that I just said that though...)
K-State (granted, academics do leave a lot to be desired, more than likely. However, they do have some pedigree as a football school, are a familiar name around the A5, and have a solid, statewide following in football, something that the Pac 12 could really use!!! I believe that K-State could be to the Pac 12 what FSU is to the ACC.)
Iowa State- does have the Pac 12 academic requirements and decent sized statewide fanbase. Football is decent which is definitely a plus.

That leaves West Virginia, Baylor, TCU to fight for spots in the ACC or join the American.
(This post was last modified: 07-30-2021 01:33 AM by DawgNBama.)
07-30-2021 01:31 AM
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