Stewart Mandel of The Athletic also chimes in...From The Athletic:

So what does all this mean for the Left-Behind 8?
Per its Form 990, the Big 12 distributed an average of $38.5 million to its members in fiscal year 2020. With TV contracts accounting for 62 percent of the conference’s $409 million in total revenue, it can reasonably be estimated that TV accounted for about $24 million of those schools’ distribution checks.

If the aforementioned TV consultants are correct in their estimate that Oklahoma and Texas generated 50 percent of that value, then the Left-Behind 8 would expect to see that number drop to $12 million per school. Even if the other revenue streams remained the same — unlikely, as the league would also produce fewer bowl and NCAA Tournament teams — their overall share would drop to $26.5 million.

That’s about half what the Big Ten currently distributes to its members and about 40 percent of what the SEC is projected to reach if Oklahoma and Texas come aboard.

And that $12 million TV figure might prove too optimistic if/when the Big 12 negotiates its next contract. On one hand, sports rights in general have skyrocketed in the nine years since the conference last went to the market. On the other, such a depleted conference does not figure to garner a bidding war between networks, which could dampen the price.

A more useful recent analog, given the viewership numbers cited earlier, might be the AAC’s new ESPN deal that began in 2020. That contract nets its schools about $7 million a year on average.

Unfortunately, that $7 million-to-$12 million range does not bode well for the Left-Behind 8’s chances of landing an invitation to one of the other Power 5 conferences. The ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 are unlikely to invite a school that would drag down its current members’ slice of the conference pie. All three currently make far more than that from media rights.

The more realistic play is for the AAC and Left-Behind 8 to join forces in some capacity. The only question is which league will raid the other. Sources told The Athletic’s Nicole Auerbach that the “Power 6” conference plans to become an aggressor.

Meanwhile, a Big 12 AD lamented to The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman last week that “bringing in a Cincinnati and UCF doesn’t bring any eyeballs.”

Technically, that AD’s not wrong. There’s no evidence to suggest those schools bring in more eyeballs than his. But he may need to come to terms with the reality that his school may soon be held in similar regard.

https://theathletic.com/2731657/2021/07/...ed_article

There is no way the remaining Big 12 teams are not adding anybody. This is just a negotiating tactic.

The Big 12 is no longer considered a power conference but still has the advantage over the AAC. But they need leave no doubt and lock in the #5 FBS conference ranking by grabbing the AAC's top 4 teams. Its also in the AAC's top 4 teams best interest to move to the Big 12 because that will also leave no doubt they are in the #5 conference if they join.

(07-27-2021 06:33 PM)Maize Wrote:  Stewart Mandel of The Athletic also chimes in...From The Athletic:

So what does all this mean for the Left-Behind 8?
Per its Form 990, the Big 12 distributed an average of $38.5 million to its members in fiscal year 2020. With TV contracts accounting for 62 percent of the conference’s $409 million in total revenue, it can reasonably be estimated that TV accounted for about $24 million of those schools’ distribution checks.

If the aforementioned TV consultants are correct in their estimate that Oklahoma and Texas generated 50 percent of that value, then the Left-Behind 8 would expect to see that number drop to $12 million per school. Even if the other revenue streams remained the same — unlikely, as the league would also produce fewer bowl and NCAA Tournament teams — their overall share would drop to $26.5 million.

That’s about half what the Big Ten currently distributes to its members and about 40 percent of what the SEC is projected to reach if Oklahoma and Texas come aboard.

And that $12 million TV figure might prove too optimistic if/when the Big 12 negotiates its next contract. On one hand, sports rights in general have skyrocketed in the nine years since the conference last went to the market. On the other, such a depleted conference does not figure to garner a bidding war between networks, which could dampen the price.

A more useful recent analog, given the viewership numbers cited earlier, might be the AAC’s new ESPN deal that began in 2020. That contract nets its schools about $7 million a year on average.

Unfortunately, that $7 million-to-$12 million range does not bode well for the Left-Behind 8’s chances of landing an invitation to one of the other Power 5 conferences. The ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 are unlikely to invite a school that would drag down its current members’ slice of the conference pie. All three currently make far more than that from media rights.

The more realistic play is for the AAC and Left-Behind 8 to join forces in some capacity. The only question is which league will raid the other. Sources told The Athletic’s Nicole Auerbach that the “Power 6” conference plans to become an aggressor.

Meanwhile, a Big 12 AD lamented to The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman last week that “bringing in a Cincinnati and UCF doesn’t bring any eyeballs.”

Technically, that AD’s not wrong. There’s no evidence to suggest those schools bring in more eyeballs than his. But he may need to come to terms with the reality that his school may soon be held in similar regard.

https://theathletic.com/2731657/2021/07/...ed_article

Mandel wrote: as the league would also produce fewer bowl and NCAA Tournament teams

Lazy writing. Texas and OU are barely contributing any tourney shares - 90% is coming from the other 8 teams.

Adding two good basketball schools like Houston and Cincy would improve the league.

(07-27-2021 07:03 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 06:33 PM)Maize Wrote:  Stewart Mandel of The Athletic also chimes in...From The Athletic:

So what does all this mean for the Left-Behind 8?
Per its Form 990, the Big 12 distributed an average of $38.5 million to its members in fiscal year 2020. With TV contracts accounting for 62 percent of the conference’s $409 million in total revenue, it can reasonably be estimated that TV accounted for about $24 million of those schools’ distribution checks.

If the aforementioned TV consultants are correct in their estimate that Oklahoma and Texas generated 50 percent of that value, then the Left-Behind 8 would expect to see that number drop to $12 million per school. Even if the other revenue streams remained the same — unlikely, as the league would also produce fewer bowl and NCAA Tournament teams — their overall share would drop to $26.5 million.

That’s about half what the Big Ten currently distributes to its members and about 40 percent of what the SEC is projected to reach if Oklahoma and Texas come aboard.

And that $12 million TV figure might prove too optimistic if/when the Big 12 negotiates its next contract. On one hand, sports rights in general have skyrocketed in the nine years since the conference last went to the market. On the other, such a depleted conference does not figure to garner a bidding war between networks, which could dampen the price.

A more useful recent analog, given the viewership numbers cited earlier, might be the AAC’s new ESPN deal that began in 2020. That contract nets its schools about $7 million a year on average.

Unfortunately, that $7 million-to-$12 million range does not bode well for the Left-Behind 8’s chances of landing an invitation to one of the other Power 5 conferences. The ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 are unlikely to invite a school that would drag down its current members’ slice of the conference pie. All three currently make far more than that from media rights.

The more realistic play is for the AAC and Left-Behind 8 to join forces in some capacity. The only question is which league will raid the other. Sources told The Athletic’s Nicole Auerbach that the “Power 6” conference plans to become an aggressor.

Meanwhile, a Big 12 AD lamented to The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman last week that “bringing in a Cincinnati and UCF doesn’t bring any eyeballs.”

Technically, that AD’s not wrong. There’s no evidence to suggest those schools bring in more eyeballs than his. But he may need to come to terms with the reality that his school may soon be held in similar regard.

https://theathletic.com/2731657/2021/07/...ed_article

Mandel wrote: as the league would also produce fewer bowl and NCAA Tournament teams

Lazy writing. Texas and OU are barely contributing any tourney shares - 90% is coming from the other 8 teams.

Adding two good basketball schools like Houston and Cincy would improve the league.

Agree. Without UT and OU, what's the TV market? Kansas, Iowa, a small part of Oklahoma and Texas. That's NOT a national conference. Cincinnati and UCF add a TON of eyeballs. Add Houston and Memphis and the Big12 has national appeal.

(07-27-2021 07:03 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 06:33 PM)Maize Wrote:  Stewart Mandel of The Athletic also chimes in...From The Athletic:

So what does all this mean for the Left-Behind 8?
Per its Form 990, the Big 12 distributed an average of $38.5 million to its members in fiscal year 2020. With TV contracts accounting for 62 percent of the conference’s $409 million in total revenue, it can reasonably be estimated that TV accounted for about $24 million of those schools’ distribution checks.

If the aforementioned TV consultants are correct in their estimate that Oklahoma and Texas generated 50 percent of that value, then the Left-Behind 8 would expect to see that number drop to $12 million per school. Even if the other revenue streams remained the same — unlikely, as the league would also produce fewer bowl and NCAA Tournament teams — their overall share would drop to $26.5 million.

That’s about half what the Big Ten currently distributes to its members and about 40 percent of what the SEC is projected to reach if Oklahoma and Texas come aboard.

And that $12 million TV figure might prove too optimistic if/when the Big 12 negotiates its next contract. On one hand, sports rights in general have skyrocketed in the nine years since the conference last went to the market. On the other, such a depleted conference does not figure to garner a bidding war between networks, which could dampen the price.

A more useful recent analog, given the viewership numbers cited earlier, might be the AAC’s new ESPN deal that began in 2020. That contract nets its schools about $7 million a year on average.

Unfortunately, that $7 million-to-$12 million range does not bode well for the Left-Behind 8’s chances of landing an invitation to one of the other Power 5 conferences. The ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 are unlikely to invite a school that would drag down its current members’ slice of the conference pie. All three currently make far more than that from media rights.

The more realistic play is for the AAC and Left-Behind 8 to join forces in some capacity. The only question is which league will raid the other. Sources told The Athletic’s Nicole Auerbach that the “Power 6” conference plans to become an aggressor.

Meanwhile, a Big 12 AD lamented to The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman last week that “bringing in a Cincinnati and UCF doesn’t bring any eyeballs.”

Technically, that AD’s not wrong. There’s no evidence to suggest those schools bring in more eyeballs than his. But he may need to come to terms with the reality that his school may soon be held in similar regard.

https://theathletic.com/2731657/2021/07/...ed_article

Mandel wrote: as the league would also produce fewer bowl and NCAA Tournament teams

Lazy writing. Texas and OU are barely contributing any tourney shares - 90% is coming from the other 8 teams.

Adding two good basketball schools like Houston and Cincy would improve the league.

Yea, the guy doesnt know what he's talking about.

I believe OU has 3 active tournament credits and TX has 1. Maybe add up the total active tournament credits for CInci, UCF, Memphis, and Houston and try to tell us again how their revenue there is going down. And yes, I know Memphis has zero right now, but they are poised to start racking them up.

Memphis, Houston, Cinci, and UCF(twice) has played in a NY6 bowl, a bowl that they had to EARN their way into playing and wasnt a guaranteed conference bowl. Remind me how many NY6 bowl games in the past 5 years TX has played in even with their conference guarantee. (hint, as many as Memphis) And I'm not even going to mention the BCS bowl UCF played in where they demolished Baylor. And the AAC west division has been tougher in many years than some P5 divisions.

This sounds like some guy who doesnt know what these teams have done in the past 5 years.

(07-27-2021 07:17 PM)mac6115cd Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 07:03 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 06:33 PM)Maize Wrote:  Stewart Mandel of The Athletic also chimes in...From The Athletic:

So what does all this mean for the Left-Behind 8?
Per its Form 990, the Big 12 distributed an average of $38.5 million to its members in fiscal year 2020. With TV contracts accounting for 62 percent of the conference’s $409 million in total revenue, it can reasonably be estimated that TV accounted for about $24 million of those schools’ distribution checks.

If the aforementioned TV consultants are correct in their estimate that Oklahoma and Texas generated 50 percent of that value, then the Left-Behind 8 would expect to see that number drop to $12 million per school. Even if the other revenue streams remained the same — unlikely, as the league would also produce fewer bowl and NCAA Tournament teams — their overall share would drop to $26.5 million.

That’s about half what the Big Ten currently distributes to its members and about 40 percent of what the SEC is projected to reach if Oklahoma and Texas come aboard.

And that $12 million TV figure might prove too optimistic if/when the Big 12 negotiates its next contract. On one hand, sports rights in general have skyrocketed in the nine years since the conference last went to the market. On the other, such a depleted conference does not figure to garner a bidding war between networks, which could dampen the price.

A more useful recent analog, given the viewership numbers cited earlier, might be the AAC’s new ESPN deal that began in 2020. That contract nets its schools about $7 million a year on average.

Unfortunately, that $7 million-to-$12 million range does not bode well for the Left-Behind 8’s chances of landing an invitation to one of the other Power 5 conferences. The ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 are unlikely to invite a school that would drag down its current members’ slice of the conference pie. All three currently make far more than that from media rights.

The more realistic play is for the AAC and Left-Behind 8 to join forces in some capacity. The only question is which league will raid the other. Sources told The Athletic’s Nicole Auerbach that the “Power 6” conference plans to become an aggressor.

Meanwhile, a Big 12 AD lamented to The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman last week that “bringing in a Cincinnati and UCF doesn’t bring any eyeballs.”

Technically, that AD’s not wrong. There’s no evidence to suggest those schools bring in more eyeballs than his. But he may need to come to terms with the reality that his school may soon be held in similar regard.

https://theathletic.com/2731657/2021/07/...ed_article

Mandel wrote: as the league would also produce fewer bowl and NCAA Tournament teams

Lazy writing. Texas and OU are barely contributing any tourney shares - 90% is coming from the other 8 teams.

Adding two good basketball schools like Houston and Cincy would improve the league.

Agree. Without UT and OU, what's the TV market? Kansas, Iowa, a small part of Oklahoma and Texas. That's NOT a national conference. Cincinnati and UCF add a TON of eyeballs. Add Houston and Memphis and the Big12 has national appeal.

Perversely, the fact that the remaining Big 12 schools will now only be worth around half of what they used to means that adding teams that are themselves valued at above the average of the AAC (which has some serious dead weight) won't further dilute the per school value of the conference if they were to expand to 12. And in the process, they would increase the gap between themselves and the remaining G4 conferences, assuring them of a place at an expanded CFP table.

(07-27-2021 06:17 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 06:02 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 05:57 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  1. You cant have a CCG with 8.

You absolutely can. There is no minimum anymore.

Its still 10 teams.

Sorry, wrong. There is no minimum for a CCG. I'd dig up the NCAA bylaws again, but I've lost count of how many times I've already done that.

(07-27-2021 07:39 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 06:17 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 06:02 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 05:57 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  1. You cant have a CCG with 8.

You absolutely can. There is no minimum anymore.

Its still 10 teams.

Sorry, wrong. There is no minimum for a CCG. I'd dig up the NCAA bylaws again, but I've lost count of how many times I've already done that.

Quote:17.11.6.2.1 (b) Conference Championship Game. One conference championship game:

(1) Between division champions of a conference that is divided into two divisions (as equally balanced in number as possible) and conducts round-robin, regular-season competition in each division; or

(2) Between the top two teams in the conference standings following full round-robin regular-season competition among all members of the conference.

10 teams are not required for either setup.

(07-27-2021 07:34 PM)ken d Wrote:  Perversely, the fact that the remaining Big 12 schools will now only be worth around half of what they used to means that adding teams that are themselves valued at above the average of the AAC (which has some serious dead weight) won't further dilute the per school value of the conference if they were to expand to 12. And in the process, they would increase the gap between themselves and the remaining G4 conferences, assuring them of a place at an expanded CFP table.

Hit the nail on the head. Guarantee the “auto-bid” for all intents and purposes and maintain similar per school payout. UC and UCF are proven programs. Memphis and Houston as well. This is not rocket science.

(07-27-2021 07:34 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 07:17 PM)mac6115cd Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 07:03 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 06:33 PM)Maize Wrote:  Stewart Mandel of The Athletic also chimes in...From The Athletic:

So what does all this mean for the Left-Behind 8?
Per its Form 990, the Big 12 distributed an average of $38.5 million to its members in fiscal year 2020. With TV contracts accounting for 62 percent of the conference’s $409 million in total revenue, it can reasonably be estimated that TV accounted for about $24 million of those schools’ distribution checks.

If the aforementioned TV consultants are correct in their estimate that Oklahoma and Texas generated 50 percent of that value, then the Left-Behind 8 would expect to see that number drop to $12 million per school. Even if the other revenue streams remained the same — unlikely, as the league would also produce fewer bowl and NCAA Tournament teams — their overall share would drop to $26.5 million.

That’s about half what the Big Ten currently distributes to its members and about 40 percent of what the SEC is projected to reach if Oklahoma and Texas come aboard.

And that $12 million TV figure might prove too optimistic if/when the Big 12 negotiates its next contract. On one hand, sports rights in general have skyrocketed in the nine years since the conference last went to the market. On the other, such a depleted conference does not figure to garner a bidding war between networks, which could dampen the price.

A more useful recent analog, given the viewership numbers cited earlier, might be the AAC’s new ESPN deal that began in 2020. That contract nets its schools about $7 million a year on average.

Unfortunately, that $7 million-to-$12 million range does not bode well for the Left-Behind 8’s chances of landing an invitation to one of the other Power 5 conferences. The ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 are unlikely to invite a school that would drag down its current members’ slice of the conference pie. All three currently make far more than that from media rights.

The more realistic play is for the AAC and Left-Behind 8 to join forces in some capacity. The only question is which league will raid the other. Sources told The Athletic’s Nicole Auerbach that the “Power 6” conference plans to become an aggressor.

Meanwhile, a Big 12 AD lamented to The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman last week that “bringing in a Cincinnati and UCF doesn’t bring any eyeballs.”

Technically, that AD’s not wrong. There’s no evidence to suggest those schools bring in more eyeballs than his. But he may need to come to terms with the reality that his school may soon be held in similar regard.

https://theathletic.com/2731657/2021/07/...ed_article

Mandel wrote: as the league would also produce fewer bowl and NCAA Tournament teams

Lazy writing. Texas and OU are barely contributing any tourney shares - 90% is coming from the other 8 teams.

Adding two good basketball schools like Houston and Cincy would improve the league.

Agree. Without UT and OU, what's the TV market? Kansas, Iowa, a small part of Oklahoma and Texas. That's NOT a national conference. Cincinnati and UCF add a TON of eyeballs. Add Houston and Memphis and the Big12 has national appeal.

Perversely, the fact that the remaining Big 12 schools will now only be worth around half of what they used to means that adding teams that are themselves valued at above the average of the AAC (which has some serious dead weight) won't further dilute the per school value of the conference if they were to expand to 12. And in the process, they would increase the gap between themselves and the remaining G4 conferences, assuring them of a place at an expanded CFP table.

So if the Big 12 does invite Cincy, Houston, Memphis and UCF, what does that do to the media value of the AAC? We see what's happening to the value of the remaining 8 of the Big 12, will there be a similar drop for the AAC? Less or more of a drop?

As has already been said, TV network guys have a vested interest in lowballing the neo Big 12 conference. Nobody wants to get into a bidding war, which is exactly what is going to happen regardless. That putative 11-12 team conference will get close to 20 million per year.

(07-27-2021 08:34 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  As has already been said, TV network guys have a vested interest in lowballing the neo Big 12 conference. Nobody wants to get into a bidding war, which is exactly what is going to happen regardless. That putative 11-12 team conference will get close to 20 million per year.

So in other words the remaining 8 schools by your estimate would be making half of what they made with Texas and Oklahoma....that is a comfort...

(07-27-2021 08:01 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 07:34 PM)ken d Wrote:  Perversely, the fact that the remaining Big 12 schools will now only be worth around half of what they used to means that adding teams that are themselves valued at above the average of the AAC (which has some serious dead weight) won't further dilute the per school value of the conference if they were to expand to 12. And in the process, they would increase the gap between themselves and the remaining G4 conferences, assuring them of a place at an expanded CFP table.

Hit the nail on the head. Guarantee the “auto-bid” for all intents and purposes and maintain similar per school payout. UC and UCF are proven programs. Memphis and Houston as well. This is not rocket science.

Add West Virginia and Iowa State to those four and you have two fairly balanced divisions, each of which has at least one Texas team. With Crossovers, everybody could play in the State of Texas every year.

As for fear of this conference being poached by bigger dogs in the P5, I think if that's going to happen we will know it before UT and OU to SEC actually happens. After that, Pay For Play could change everything. We may not know the answer to that before any of these changes would likely be final.

8 works.

Until KU/ISU make a call to the B1G.
And WVU to the ACC.
Then the PAC takes 4.

They’re just trying to hold out to get exit fees first.

My opinion is this.

B12 is going to fold when teams start to leave.

ACC becomes the old ACC/Old Big East.
PAC gets the old PAC-8 back together, and solves their media time zone issue.
B1G gets 2 more AAU schools and better geography.
SEC gets the best football conference in the country.

The AAC if it wants to stay relevant with it’s “power conference” campaign, it needs to get all of the best name schools out there, make it solid football & basketball, and market to ESPN that it can get nationwide inventory, have the media consider it the 5th best power league, which will help get as revenue and interest in additional time slots, and give the bigger conferences “power” teams to play that aren’t FCS.

Top 2 teams in the conferences play for conference titles, regardless of division.
Divisions are just for scheduling.

All 3 service academies. Check.
Revival of the SWC in a division. Check. (UH won’t let in Rice, but we can dream. They have name. And certainly the academics.)
Best of the MWC and strong names football and basketball. Check.
Nationwide time slots for TV inventory under one conference banner. Check.
Teams that casual fans have heard of. Check.

And I can’t believe I’m saying this. After UAB being dead. They are a sleeper in great location with new stadium.

(07-27-2021 05:55 PM)thrill_house Wrote:  Follow the Big Ten's strategy for expansion: big markets, big recruiting areas, and teams that will take L after L to the current conference teams. If those types of schools aren't available, DON'T EXPAND.

Tulane, Rice, maybe Georgia State.

OU and UT were the real prizes in alignment. Plus ND is independent and can join whenever without disrupting other leagues sans one or two schools and conferences that need to get back to an even number.

I would like to think CFB stabilizes for a bit after this round. The next disruption may come when P4 schools start swapping amongst each other. But I don’t think there is a mechanism for the ACC or PAC12 to implode, and the Big 12 should be a perfect tweener type of conference that is a benchmark of sorts for the rest of FBS or G5 conference. It could be viewed as a P4 P5-lite and G5 paradigm which is more more stable than a P5 G5 split where it is black and white.

(07-27-2021 07:53 PM)OhioBoilermaker Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 07:39 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 06:17 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 06:02 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 05:57 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  1. You cant have a CCG with 8.

You absolutely can. There is no minimum anymore.

Its still 10 teams.

Sorry, wrong. There is no minimum for a CCG. I'd dig up the NCAA bylaws again, but I've lost count of how many times I've already done that.

Quote:17.11.6.2.1 (b) Conference Championship Game. One conference championship game:

(1) Between division champions of a conference that is divided into two divisions (as equally balanced in number as possible) and conducts round-robin, regular-season competition in each division; or

(2) Between the top two teams in the conference standings following full round-robin regular-season competition among all members of the conference.

10 teams are not required for either setup.

I just wonder how the seven game, eight team round robin would work —- there is less volume for streaming or OTA, and while they’ll end up trying to maintain an out-of-conference rivalries, keeping Bedlam, and El Asico for Iowa State, other schools will have to schedule 5 games. So they’ll end up having to do home and homes with upper tier AAC teams, pay Belt and CUSA teams to visit, and possibly beat them, and play a regional FCS opponent emboldened by full-roster Oil money NIL endorsements and a savvy hand at the Transfer Portal.

(07-27-2021 08:45 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 08:01 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 07:34 PM)ken d Wrote:  Perversely, the fact that the remaining Big 12 schools will now only be worth around half of what they used to means that adding teams that are themselves valued at above the average of the AAC (which has some serious dead weight) won't further dilute the per school value of the conference if they were to expand to 12. And in the process, they would increase the gap between themselves and the remaining G4 conferences, assuring them of a place at an expanded CFP table.

Hit the nail on the head. Guarantee the “auto-bid” for all intents and purposes and maintain similar per school payout. UC and UCF are proven programs. Memphis and Houston as well. This is not rocket science.

Add West Virginia and Iowa State to those four and you have two fairly balanced divisions, each of which has at least one Texas team. With Crossovers, everybody could play in the State of Texas every year.

As for fear of this conference being poached by bigger dogs in the P5, I think if that's going to happen we will know it before UT and OU to SEC actually happens. After that, Pay For Play could change everything. We may not know the answer to that before any of these changes would likely be final.

With only this change plus the OU/UT move, this is what the 10 year average Sagarin power ratings would have been with the new conference makeups (average attendance in '000's in parentheses):

SEC 81 (77)
PAC 77 (58)
B1G 75 (65)
ACC 75 (42)
B12 74 (44)

AAC 65 (27)
MWC 64 (24)
MAC 59 (15)
SBC 58 (18)
USA 58 (19)

The only thing this new B12 would lack that the rest of the P5 have is a legitimate tentpole.

Wouldn’t Tulane get them into NO? (Beggars can’t be choosers)

That is what I have been saying. If no school is better then you might as well stand pat and

The basic issue with only 8 schools is you only have 28 conference football games and 56 men's basketball games in the inventory. That really limits your package and it's value when the next contract comes up. If you can add an equal level school (cough, BYU) the your package can gain significantly. A 9th equal school adds 8 conference football games for 36 total, and 16 basketball games to 72, an increase of 28.57% for both. That could potentially translate into potentially 25% increase in the package value (it's a little less than the full amount because of OOC games need to be considered) for only a 12.5% increase in distributions. In short everyone would see a 1.5% or greater revenue increase. Also 8 football games and 8 conference basketball home games are better than 7. But it has to be the right school of equal value.

Interesting that he is only looking at 8 and 10 not considering 9.

The value falls off significantly for a 10th school Football is problematic going beyond 8 games, because schools will want more OOC games to still host six home games and have a revenue game. Staying at 8 games and making pseudo divisions like the SBC makes more sense.But this means the football inventory only increases 4 games, or only 11%, for a program like UCF or Cincy who are smaller than your current member fan viewer (and attendance value), which means you will likely gain 9-10% in inventory value, even adding basketball (only 15-20% of the package value), and probably a bit less, given the OOC impact, while requiring an 11% increase in distributions. In short the 10th is probably a net negative. Not a massive net negative, but still perhaps shaves $150K to $300K of everyone's distribution.

This is just BOE calculations, making some assumptions that could be wrong by a few percent on the totals. But the big picture value is clear. The right 9th school should easily increase the value of the package far more than they would consume, increasing everyone's share of the pie, but a 10th is best case only break even, likely a negative given the choices are below the current brand value of the existing members.

Of course this still puts you back whee everything starts. Is BYU worth the problems you get with them, despite the valuation upside? If not then staying at 8 is the best course. In this I think McMurphy tripped onto the truth. Especially since he was viewing UCF (as I do) as the best of the AAC, and they don't match the value needed.