(07-28-2021 07:25 AM)3rdgenerationtiger Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 04:27 AM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 02:52 AM)3rdgenerationtiger Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:03 PM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 08:38 PM)3rdgenerationtiger Wrote:  If one of those schools was Notre Dame.

nope. Our 4 schools have put the AAC where it is now in the landscape of college football and basketball.
Without us 4...the AAC's tv deal looks like CUSA.

If that was the case then why does the university have to contract with WMC to produce the games on ESPN+? Better yet, if these 4 schools are so valuable, why are any games on ESPN+?

At $9 Million per school, the conference would get $72 Million. To get to $20 million per school, the B12 with 4 new schools would have to generate $240 Million. That would equal the 4 schools generating $42 Million in revenue each. That would equal $168 Million for the big AAC 4.

If true, then the AAC would be getting $15 Million each with Wichita’s State getting a full share. And that’s figuring the other 7 schools generating zero revenue.

Face it, if these 4 schools could be worth that much, they’d have been long gone from the AAC.

The Big 12 has a brand. The remaining schools aren't Texas or OU, but they'd have enough brass to negotiate a better tv deal.
The AAC is still trying to build its brand...we have to take the scraps they hand us until we prove we're not a flash in the pan, and we're not going to fade.
That's the difference.

According to The Wall Street Journal, these are the values of the Big 12 college football programs:

West Virginia - $61 Million
Baylor - $106 Million
Iowa St. - $188 Million
TCU - $191 Million
Kansas - $208 Million
Texas Tech - $244 Million
Ok. St. - $271 Million
Kansas St - $277 Million
Oklahoma - $885 Million
Texas - $1.105 Billion
B12 Total - $3.536 Billion

Texas and Oklahoma comprise 56% of the value of the total conference. Eight of the ten schools in the B12 make up only 44% of the conference value. There is the correlation to a 50% decrease in the TV contract.

But...

How much of the worth of the other eight B12 programs are directly related to playing Texas and Oklahoma each year? If Texas and Oklahoma are worth 50% of the value of the conference, then it could be said that the worth of the other 8 programs is maybe 25% less with ties to Texas and Oklahoma cut. Now we are down in the neighborhood of the conference being worth 25% without Texas and Oklahoma.

Following the above, the adjusted worth of the remaining Big 12 schools would be:

West Virginia - $46 Million
Baylor - $80 Million
Iowa St. - $141 Million
TCU - $143 Million
Kansas - $156 Million
Texas Tech - $183 Million
Ok St. - $203 Million
Kansas St. - $208 Million
B12 Remnant Total - $1.16 Billion

Comparing the AAC values:

UCF - $68 Million
USF - $58 Million
Houston - $42 Million
Temple - $41 Million
SMU - $36 Million
Memphis - $32 Million
Cincinnati - $30 Million
ECU - $28 Million

Tulsa and Tulane were not even valued by The Journal but let's say they're worth $10 Million each

Total CAA value - $355 Million

Now let's assume the value of UCF/Cincinnati/Houston/Memphis double in value by moving to the B12.

Adding these new values to the B12, you increase the value of the B12 by $344 Million. Now the B12 is worth $ 1.50 Billion.

I don't know the totals of the existing TV contracts, but this math supports a new B12 contract being worth about 40% of the existing contract.

I agree, a $15M+/- per school payout seems more realistic than the $20M being thrown out……..I understand the $20M came from an article, but I think it said “up to “ $20M & that doesn’t seem likely to me.

Even if the "tv" portion of the contract is $9million, its not hard to get to $20million for the new B12.

1. Being autonomous, they qualify for a $66million payout. Divide that by 12 teams, and thats an additional $5.5million per team per year.

2. The conference gets another $6million if they make a playoff game.

3. Add in another $300K per team for APR.

4. Add in basketball tournament credits.

The $20million per team is not a tv contract, its the conference disbursement. Are the 4 AAC teams worth it? Yes, because each has snagged a NY6 bowl, each have big tv markets, and each are capable of piling up NCAA tournament credits.


The issue we have with the current makeup of the AAC is that some teams dont have a good tv market, some teams cant deliver their tv market, some teams suck at football, some teams suck at basketball, and several teams dont have a tv market, dont deliver what little market they have, while also sucking at football and basketball. Not all AAC teams are worth $7million for tv rights. Those at the top are worth considerable more, and yes, they basically support the bottom of the conference.

This is why the AAC will never absorb the remaining B12. Not only does the B12 get access to more money as a conference, the AAC has a few teams that are takers and not givers.

(07-27-2021 11:11 PM)CRM114 Wrote:  I was curious just how we stack up against other AAC teams in TV ratings. This site has game-by-game ratings figures for all nationally televised college football games. Since football TV ratings seem to be driving the bus here, maybe this is some indication of our relative value.

The table below shows total viewership for AAC nationally-televised conference games that each team played in between 2017 and 2020. Inter-conference games are not included. The AAC championship games are included. This method of comparison is not entirely scientific since we can't separate viewership by teams, but it does give an indication of who is being watched.

Team - Games (2017-20) - Total Viewers (M) - Average Viewers (M) - Rank - (TV Market Rank)

MEM - 21 - 23.83 - 1.13 - 1 (51)
CIN - 16 - 17.41 - 1.09 - 2 (37)
UCF - 27 - 29.23 - 1.08 - 3 (18)
USF - 10 - 10.32 - 1.03 - 4 (12)
TLN - 6 - 3.75 - 0.63 - 5 (50)
SMU - 12 - 7.39 - 0.62 - 6 (5)
TUL - 20 - 11.49 - 0.57 - 7 (58)
NAV - 11 - 6.11 - 0.56 - 8 (26)
HOU - 15 - 8.15 - 0.54 - 9 (8)
TEM - 13 - 6.45 - 0.50 - 10 (4)
ECU - 9 - 3.36 - 0.37 - 11 (100)
CON - 8 - 2.65 - 0.33 - 12 (33)

So Memphis drew the highest average viewership for its games and was #2 (behind UCF) in total viewers as they had 6 more games. We benefitted from being in more AAC championship games (3) than anyone else. I averaged regular-season viewership (no AAC championship games) and we rank #4 behind USF, CIN and UCF, respectively. Of course we also benefitted from being good - #2 win percentage behind UCF.

What stands out to me here is that we are punching above our weight in market size - believe it or not we are 9th out of 11 in TV market size - and how paltry SMU, HOU and TEM draw despite being in top 10 markets. Perhaps somewhat understandable for HOU considering their lackluster on-field performance during this time, but SMU and TEM had the 4th and 5th best win percentages. Really does make you wonder why HOU or SMU would be B12 expansion targets. There's clear separation between MEM/CIN/UCF/USF and the others, and USF is something of an outlier because 4.6M of their 10.3M viewers came in a single game with UCF in 2017.

I didn't have time to do this with B12 games (minus UT/OU) and other top G5 teams. Maybe I'll do that tomorrow if someone else doesn't want to try. Would be interesting to see how the top 3-4 AAC teams compare.

I have used that site often to show how valuable we are. This is the best post on the entire board since the Texas, Oklahoma move was rumoured. Great stuff!

I might have a go at the Big 12 games. From past research, I know for a fact...

- Most games on Fox draw very well
- Most games NOT on Fox (FS1/FS2) don't draw well at all
- Games not involving Texas, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State, don't draw well at all comparatively if they aren't on the main network.

With our current contract, we had infinitely more exposure than most Big 12 teams on major networks (ABC,Fox/ESPN, ESPN2). IF we merge with the Big 12, there will be a lot more money, BUT we are going to suffer the same fate that Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and Texas Tech did. We are going to have less games on the major networks, and many of our games will get pushed down the network chain.

Tier 1
ABC/NBC/Fox

Tier 2
ESPN

Tier 3
ESPN2

Tier 4
FS1/FS2/ESPNU/ESPN News

Right now we are very well positioned in the AAC, and get a lot of games comparatively in the first 3 tiers. Competing with Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Baylor and TCU is naturally going to drive more of our games down the network chain. IF you have a couple of bad seasons, you are going to play most of your games either on Tier 4, or worse, only on local networks, if at all.

(07-28-2021 02:52 AM)3rdgenerationtiger Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:03 PM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 08:38 PM)3rdgenerationtiger Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 07:08 PM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  adding 4 schools could keep it around $20 million.

If one of those schools was Notre Dame.

nope. Our 4 schools have put the AAC where it is now in the landscape of college football and basketball.
Without us 4...the AAC's tv deal looks like CUSA.

If that was the case then why does the university have to contract with WMC to produce the games on ESPN+? Better yet, if these 4 schools are so valuable, why are any games on ESPN+?

At $9 Million per school, the conference would get $72 Million. To get to $20 million per school, the B12 with 4 new schools would have to generate $240 Million. That would equal the 4 schools generating $42 Million in revenue each. That would equal $168 Million for the big AAC 4.

If true, then the AAC would be getting $15 Million each with Wichita’s State getting a full share. And that’s figuring the other 7 schools generating zero revenue.

Face it, if these 4 schools could be worth that much, they’d have been long gone from the AAC.

Probably half of P5 teams and more than that number of G5 teams have many of their games aired on ESPN+/ESPN3. It's not your fault that you wouldn't know that; most just assume that everyone plays all their games on major networks.

(07-28-2021 10:10 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 11:11 PM)CRM114 Wrote:  I was curious just how we stack up against other AAC teams in TV ratings. This site has game-by-game ratings figures for all nationally televised college football games. Since football TV ratings seem to be driving the bus here, maybe this is some indication of our relative value.

The table below shows total viewership for AAC nationally-televised conference games that each team played in between 2017 and 2020. Inter-conference games are not included. The AAC championship games are included. This method of comparison is not entirely scientific since we can't separate viewership by teams, but it does give an indication of who is being watched.

Team - Games (2017-20) - Total Viewers (M) - Average Viewers (M) - Rank - (TV Market Rank)

MEM - 21 - 23.83 - 1.13 - 1 (51)
CIN - 16 - 17.41 - 1.09 - 2 (37)
UCF - 27 - 29.23 - 1.08 - 3 (18)
USF - 10 - 10.32 - 1.03 - 4 (12)
TLN - 6 - 3.75 - 0.63 - 5 (50)
SMU - 12 - 7.39 - 0.62 - 6 (5)
TUL - 20 - 11.49 - 0.57 - 7 (58)
NAV - 11 - 6.11 - 0.56 - 8 (26)
HOU - 15 - 8.15 - 0.54 - 9 (8)
TEM - 13 - 6.45 - 0.50 - 10 (4)
ECU - 9 - 3.36 - 0.37 - 11 (100)
CON - 8 - 2.65 - 0.33 - 12 (33)

So Memphis drew the highest average viewership for its games and was #2 (behind UCF) in total viewers as they had 6 more games. We benefitted from being in more AAC championship games (3) than anyone else. I averaged regular-season viewership (no AAC championship games) and we rank #4 behind USF, CIN and UCF, respectively. Of course we also benefitted from being good - #2 win percentage behind UCF.

What stands out to me here is that we are punching above our weight in market size - believe it or not we are 9th out of 11 in TV market size - and how paltry SMU, HOU and TEM draw despite being in top 10 markets. Perhaps somewhat understandable for HOU considering their lackluster on-field performance during this time, but SMU and TEM had the 4th and 5th best win percentages. Really does make you wonder why HOU or SMU would be B12 expansion targets. There's clear separation between MEM/CIN/UCF/USF and the others, and USF is something of an outlier because 4.6M of their 10.3M viewers came in a single game with UCF in 2017.

I didn't have time to do this with B12 games (minus UT/OU) and other top G5 teams. Maybe I'll do that tomorrow if someone else doesn't want to try. Would be interesting to see how the top 3-4 AAC teams compare.

I have used that site often to show how valuable we are. This is the best post on the entire board since the Texas, Oklahoma move was rumoured. Great stuff!

I might have a go at the Big 12 games. From past research, I know for a fact...

- Most games on Fox draw very well
- Most games NOT on Fox (FS1/FS2) don't draw well at all
- Games not involving Texas, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State, don't draw well at all comparatively if they aren't on the main network.

With our current contract, we had infinitely more exposure than most Big 12 teams on major networks (ABC,Fox/ESPN, ESPN2). IF we merge with the Big 12, there will be a lot more money, BUT we are going to suffer the same fate that Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and Texas Tech did. We are going to have less games on the major networks, and many of our games will get pushed down the network chain.

Tier 1
ABC/NBC/Fox

Tier 2
ESPN

Tier 3
ESPN2

Tier 4
FS1/FS2/ESPNU/ESPN News

Right now we are very well positioned in the AAC, and get a lot of games comparatively in the first 3 tiers. Competing with Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Baylor and TCU is naturally going to drive more of our games down the network chain. IF you have a couple of bad seasons, you are going to play most of your games either on Tier 4, or worse, only on local networks, if at all.

Thanks! I browsed through the B12 games in the same years and when you shave off the TX/OU games, the ratings don't look substantially different from the current AAC. I don't recall any game without those two getting more than 2M viewers. There were some examples in 2019 where AAC and B12 games went head-to-head and the AAC games won.

(07-28-2021 10:41 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 02:52 AM)3rdgenerationtiger Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:03 PM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 08:38 PM)3rdgenerationtiger Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 07:08 PM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  adding 4 schools could keep it around $20 million.

If one of those schools was Notre Dame.

nope. Our 4 schools have put the AAC where it is now in the landscape of college football and basketball.
Without us 4...the AAC's tv deal looks like CUSA.

If that was the case then why does the university have to contract with WMC to produce the games on ESPN+? Better yet, if these 4 schools are so valuable, why are any games on ESPN+?

At $9 Million per school, the conference would get $72 Million. To get to $20 million per school, the B12 with 4 new schools would have to generate $240 Million. That would equal the 4 schools generating $42 Million in revenue each. That would equal $168 Million for the big AAC 4.

If true, then the AAC would be getting $15 Million each with Wichita’s State getting a full share. And that’s figuring the other 7 schools generating zero revenue.

Face it, if these 4 schools could be worth that much, they’d have been long gone from the AAC.

Probably half of P5 teams and more than that number of G5 teams have many of their games aired on ESPN+/ESPN3. It's not your fault that you wouldn't know that; most just assume that everyone plays all their games on major networks.

Correct there are only so many Saturday tv slots even with the combination of network tv & dedicated cable sports stations.

Which to me is why our Thursday time slot on ESPN is so valuable.
We get a national broadcast without 20 other games on tv that day & even more being played.

(07-28-2021 07:25 AM)3rdgenerationtiger Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 04:27 AM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 02:52 AM)3rdgenerationtiger Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:03 PM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 08:38 PM)3rdgenerationtiger Wrote:  If one of those schools was Notre Dame.

nope. Our 4 schools have put the AAC where it is now in the landscape of college football and basketball.
Without us 4...the AAC's tv deal looks like CUSA.

If that was the case then why does the university have to contract with WMC to produce the games on ESPN+? Better yet, if these 4 schools are so valuable, why are any games on ESPN+?

At $9 Million per school, the conference would get $72 Million. To get to $20 million per school, the B12 with 4 new schools would have to generate $240 Million. That would equal the 4 schools generating $42 Million in revenue each. That would equal $168 Million for the big AAC 4.

If true, then the AAC would be getting $15 Million each with Wichita’s State getting a full share. And that’s figuring the other 7 schools generating zero revenue.

Face it, if these 4 schools could be worth that much, they’d have been long gone from the AAC.

The Big 12 has a brand. The remaining schools aren't Texas or OU, but they'd have enough brass to negotiate a better tv deal.
The AAC is still trying to build its brand...we have to take the scraps they hand us until we prove we're not a flash in the pan, and we're not going to fade.
That's the difference.

According to The Wall Street Journal, these are the values of the Big 12 college football programs:

West Virginia - $61 Million
Baylor - $106 Million
Iowa St. - $188 Million
TCU - $191 Million
Kansas - $208 Million
Texas Tech - $244 Million
Ok. St. - $271 Million
Kansas St - $277 Million
Oklahoma - $885 Million
Texas - $1.105 Billion
B12 Total - $3.536 Billion

Texas and Oklahoma comprise 56% of the value of the total conference. Eight of the ten schools in the B12 make up only 44% of the conference value. There is the correlation to a 50% decrease in the TV contract.

But...

How much of the worth of the other eight B12 programs are directly related to playing Texas and Oklahoma each year? If Texas and Oklahoma are worth 50% of the value of the conference, then it could be said that the worth of the other 8 programs is maybe 25% less with ties to Texas and Oklahoma cut. Now we are down in the neighborhood of the conference being worth 25% without Texas and Oklahoma.

Following the above, the adjusted worth of the remaining Big 12 schools would be:

West Virginia - $46 Million
Baylor - $80 Million
Iowa St. - $141 Million
TCU - $143 Million
Kansas - $156 Million
Texas Tech - $183 Million
Ok St. - $203 Million
Kansas St. - $208 Million
B12 Remnant Total - $1.16 Billion

Comparing the AAC values:

UCF - $68 Million
USF - $58 Million
Houston - $42 Million
Temple - $41 Million
SMU - $36 Million
Memphis - $32 Million
Cincinnati - $30 Million
ECU - $28 Million

Tulsa and Tulane were not even valued by The Journal but let's say they're worth $10 Million each

Total CAA value - $355 Million

Now let's assume the value of UCF/Cincinnati/Houston/Memphis double in value by moving to the B12.

Adding these new values to the B12, you increase the value of the B12 by $344 Million. Now the B12 is worth $ 1.50 Billion.

I don't know the totals of the existing TV contracts, but this math supports a new B12 contract being worth about 40% of the existing contract.

The reason why it would be worth more than the math suggests, is because you would be eliminating most of the games involving these programs on the major networks.

Tulsa
Tulane
USF
Temple
ECU
SMU
Kansas State
Kansas

Obviously, the highest rated games involving Oklahoma and Texas aren't there anymore; but the improvement of the middle tier and the elimination of a lot of the bottom tier in each conference, adds value.

We have a $7 million contract with a very underwhelming bottom 8 that don't draw flies, that are often televised. Those games are wiped off of the map now, as well as games involving the bottom 4 of the Big 12.

(07-28-2021 10:48 AM)CRM114 Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 10:10 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 11:11 PM)CRM114 Wrote:  I was curious just how we stack up against other AAC teams in TV ratings. This site has game-by-game ratings figures for all nationally televised college football games. Since football TV ratings seem to be driving the bus here, maybe this is some indication of our relative value.

The table below shows total viewership for AAC nationally-televised conference games that each team played in between 2017 and 2020. Inter-conference games are not included. The AAC championship games are included. This method of comparison is not entirely scientific since we can't separate viewership by teams, but it does give an indication of who is being watched.

Team - Games (2017-20) - Total Viewers (M) - Average Viewers (M) - Rank - (TV Market Rank)

MEM - 21 - 23.83 - 1.13 - 1 (51)
CIN - 16 - 17.41 - 1.09 - 2 (37)
UCF - 27 - 29.23 - 1.08 - 3 (18)
USF - 10 - 10.32 - 1.03 - 4 (12)
TLN - 6 - 3.75 - 0.63 - 5 (50)
SMU - 12 - 7.39 - 0.62 - 6 (5)
TUL - 20 - 11.49 - 0.57 - 7 (58)
NAV - 11 - 6.11 - 0.56 - 8 (26)
HOU - 15 - 8.15 - 0.54 - 9 (8)
TEM - 13 - 6.45 - 0.50 - 10 (4)
ECU - 9 - 3.36 - 0.37 - 11 (100)
CON - 8 - 2.65 - 0.33 - 12 (33)

So Memphis drew the highest average viewership for its games and was #2 (behind UCF) in total viewers as they had 6 more games. We benefitted from being in more AAC championship games (3) than anyone else. I averaged regular-season viewership (no AAC championship games) and we rank #4 behind USF, CIN and UCF, respectively. Of course we also benefitted from being good - #2 win percentage behind UCF.

What stands out to me here is that we are punching above our weight in market size - believe it or not we are 9th out of 11 in TV market size - and how paltry SMU, HOU and TEM draw despite being in top 10 markets. Perhaps somewhat understandable for HOU considering their lackluster on-field performance during this time, but SMU and TEM had the 4th and 5th best win percentages. Really does make you wonder why HOU or SMU would be B12 expansion targets. There's clear separation between MEM/CIN/UCF/USF and the others, and USF is something of an outlier because 4.6M of their 10.3M viewers came in a single game with UCF in 2017.

I didn't have time to do this with B12 games (minus UT/OU) and other top G5 teams. Maybe I'll do that tomorrow if someone else doesn't want to try. Would be interesting to see how the top 3-4 AAC teams compare.

I have used that site often to show how valuable we are. This is the best post on the entire board since the Texas, Oklahoma move was rumoured. Great stuff!

I might have a go at the Big 12 games. From past research, I know for a fact...

- Most games on Fox draw very well
- Most games NOT on Fox (FS1/FS2) don't draw well at all
- Games not involving Texas, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State, don't draw well at all comparatively if they aren't on the main network.

With our current contract, we had infinitely more exposure than most Big 12 teams on major networks (ABC,Fox/ESPN, ESPN2). IF we merge with the Big 12, there will be a lot more money, BUT we are going to suffer the same fate that Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and Texas Tech did. We are going to have less games on the major networks, and many of our games will get pushed down the network chain.

Tier 1
ABC/NBC/Fox

Tier 2
ESPN

Tier 3
ESPN2

Tier 4
FS1/FS2/ESPNU/ESPN News

Right now we are very well positioned in the AAC, and get a lot of games comparatively in the first 3 tiers. Competing with Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Baylor and TCU is naturally going to drive more of our games down the network chain. IF you have a couple of bad seasons, you are going to play most of your games either on Tier 4, or worse, only on local networks, if at all.

Thanks! I browsed through the B12 games in the same years and when you shave off the TX/OU games, the ratings don't look substantially different from the current AAC. I don't recall any game without those two getting more than 2M viewers. There were some examples in 2019 where AAC and B12 games went head-to-head and the AAC games won.

This is exactly what I have been telling everyone on and off for the last 5 years. That and us along with UCF and Cincinnati are miles ahead of the rest of the conference when it comes to ratings.

(07-28-2021 10:54 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 07:25 AM)3rdgenerationtiger Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 04:27 AM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 02:52 AM)3rdgenerationtiger Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:03 PM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  nope. Our 4 schools have put the AAC where it is now in the landscape of college football and basketball.
Without us 4...the AAC's tv deal looks like CUSA.

If that was the case then why does the university have to contract with WMC to produce the games on ESPN+? Better yet, if these 4 schools are so valuable, why are any games on ESPN+?

At $9 Million per school, the conference would get $72 Million. To get to $20 million per school, the B12 with 4 new schools would have to generate $240 Million. That would equal the 4 schools generating $42 Million in revenue each. That would equal $168 Million for the big AAC 4.

If true, then the AAC would be getting $15 Million each with Wichita’s State getting a full share. And that’s figuring the other 7 schools generating zero revenue.

Face it, if these 4 schools could be worth that much, they’d have been long gone from the AAC.

The Big 12 has a brand. The remaining schools aren't Texas or OU, but they'd have enough brass to negotiate a better tv deal.
The AAC is still trying to build its brand...we have to take the scraps they hand us until we prove we're not a flash in the pan, and we're not going to fade.
That's the difference.

According to The Wall Street Journal, these are the values of the Big 12 college football programs:

West Virginia - $61 Million
Baylor - $106 Million
Iowa St. - $188 Million
TCU - $191 Million
Kansas - $208 Million
Texas Tech - $244 Million
Ok. St. - $271 Million
Kansas St - $277 Million
Oklahoma - $885 Million
Texas - $1.105 Billion
B12 Total - $3.536 Billion

Texas and Oklahoma comprise 56% of the value of the total conference. Eight of the ten schools in the B12 make up only 44% of the conference value. There is the correlation to a 50% decrease in the TV contract.

But...

How much of the worth of the other eight B12 programs are directly related to playing Texas and Oklahoma each year? If Texas and Oklahoma are worth 50% of the value of the conference, then it could be said that the worth of the other 8 programs is maybe 25% less with ties to Texas and Oklahoma cut. Now we are down in the neighborhood of the conference being worth 25% without Texas and Oklahoma.

Following the above, the adjusted worth of the remaining Big 12 schools would be:

West Virginia - $46 Million
Baylor - $80 Million
Iowa St. - $141 Million
TCU - $143 Million
Kansas - $156 Million
Texas Tech - $183 Million
Ok St. - $203 Million
Kansas St. - $208 Million
B12 Remnant Total - $1.16 Billion

Comparing the AAC values:

UCF - $68 Million
USF - $58 Million
Houston - $42 Million
Temple - $41 Million
SMU - $36 Million
Memphis - $32 Million
Cincinnati - $30 Million
ECU - $28 Million

Tulsa and Tulane were not even valued by The Journal but let's say they're worth $10 Million each

Total CAA value - $355 Million

Now let's assume the value of UCF/Cincinnati/Houston/Memphis double in value by moving to the B12.

Adding these new values to the B12, you increase the value of the B12 by $344 Million. Now the B12 is worth $ 1.50 Billion.

I don't know the totals of the existing TV contracts, but this math supports a new B12 contract being worth about 40% of the existing contract.

The reason why it would be worth more than the math suggests, is because you would be eliminating most of the games involving these programs on the major networks.

Tulsa
Tulane
USF
Temple
ECU
SMU
Kansas State
Kansas

Obviously, the highest rated games involving Oklahoma and Texas aren't there anymore; but the improvement of the middle tier and the elimination of a lot of the bottom tier in each conference, adds value.

We have a $7 million contract with a very underwhelming bottom 8 that don't draw flies, that are often televised. Those games are wiped off of the map now, as well as games involving the bottom 4 of the Big 12.

If you look, you will see that I only devalued the B12 games to .75 and I doubled the value of the 4 AAC teams to account for the elimination the Tulsa’s and Tulane’s from the mix.

(07-28-2021 11:09 AM)3rdgenerationtiger Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 10:54 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 07:25 AM)3rdgenerationtiger Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 04:27 AM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 02:52 AM)3rdgenerationtiger Wrote:  If that was the case then why does the university have to contract with WMC to produce the games on ESPN+? Better yet, if these 4 schools are so valuable, why are any games on ESPN+?

At $9 Million per school, the conference would get $72 Million. To get to $20 million per school, the B12 with 4 new schools would have to generate $240 Million. That would equal the 4 schools generating $42 Million in revenue each. That would equal $168 Million for the big AAC 4.

If true, then the AAC would be getting $15 Million each with Wichita’s State getting a full share. And that’s figuring the other 7 schools generating zero revenue.

Face it, if these 4 schools could be worth that much, they’d have been long gone from the AAC.

The Big 12 has a brand. The remaining schools aren't Texas or OU, but they'd have enough brass to negotiate a better tv deal.
The AAC is still trying to build its brand...we have to take the scraps they hand us until we prove we're not a flash in the pan, and we're not going to fade.
That's the difference.

According to The Wall Street Journal, these are the values of the Big 12 college football programs:

West Virginia - $61 Million
Baylor - $106 Million
Iowa St. - $188 Million
TCU - $191 Million
Kansas - $208 Million
Texas Tech - $244 Million
Ok. St. - $271 Million
Kansas St - $277 Million
Oklahoma - $885 Million
Texas - $1.105 Billion
B12 Total - $3.536 Billion

Texas and Oklahoma comprise 56% of the value of the total conference. Eight of the ten schools in the B12 make up only 44% of the conference value. There is the correlation to a 50% decrease in the TV contract.

But...

How much of the worth of the other eight B12 programs are directly related to playing Texas and Oklahoma each year? If Texas and Oklahoma are worth 50% of the value of the conference, then it could be said that the worth of the other 8 programs is maybe 25% less with ties to Texas and Oklahoma cut. Now we are down in the neighborhood of the conference being worth 25% without Texas and Oklahoma.

Following the above, the adjusted worth of the remaining Big 12 schools would be:

West Virginia - $46 Million
Baylor - $80 Million
Iowa St. - $141 Million
TCU - $143 Million
Kansas - $156 Million
Texas Tech - $183 Million
Ok St. - $203 Million
Kansas St. - $208 Million
B12 Remnant Total - $1.16 Billion

Comparing the AAC values:

UCF - $68 Million
USF - $58 Million
Houston - $42 Million
Temple - $41 Million
SMU - $36 Million
Memphis - $32 Million
Cincinnati - $30 Million
ECU - $28 Million

Tulsa and Tulane were not even valued by The Journal but let's say they're worth $10 Million each

Total CAA value - $355 Million

Now let's assume the value of UCF/Cincinnati/Houston/Memphis double in value by moving to the B12.

Adding these new values to the B12, you increase the value of the B12 by $344 Million. Now the B12 is worth $ 1.50 Billion.

I don't know the totals of the existing TV contracts, but this math supports a new B12 contract being worth about 40% of the existing contract.

The reason why it would be worth more than the math suggests, is because you would be eliminating most of the games involving these programs on the major networks.

Tulsa
Tulane
USF
Temple
ECU
SMU
Kansas State
Kansas

Obviously, the highest rated games involving Oklahoma and Texas aren't there anymore; but the improvement of the middle tier and the elimination of a lot of the bottom tier in each conference, adds value.

We have a $7 million contract with a very underwhelming bottom 8 that don't draw flies, that are often televised. Those games are wiped off of the map now, as well as games involving the bottom 4 of the Big 12.

If you look, you will see that I only devalued the B12 games to .75 and I doubled the value of the 4 AAC teams to account for the elimination the Tulsa’s and Tulane’s from the mix.

Fair enough, but it's more than double, isn't it?

From previous posts. AAC/G5 games with over 1 million viewers. This was after the 2020 season (January 29, 2021)

7.72 Army - Navy
6.22 Memphis - PSU
5.44 Houston - Oklahoma
3.33 Navy - Kansas State
2.95 SMU - Memphis
2.94 Cincinnati - Ohio State
2.88 Cincinnati - Memphis
2.64 Boise - Washington
2.55 UCF - Pitt
2.51 Cincinnati - Memphis
2.07 UNC - Temple
2.07 Washington State - Houston
1.88 Ole Piss - Memphis
1.80 Wisconsin - USF
1.76 USF - UCF
1.74 Tulane - USM
1.63 UCLA - Cincinnati
1.56 Navy - Notre Dame
1.52 Cincinnati - Boston College
1.44 UCF - Cincinnati
1.38 Marshall - Boise
1.19 Boise - FSU
1.18 Wyoming - Boise
1.15 UCF - Marshall
1.03 Houston - Tulane

5 Memphis, Cincinnati
4 UCF, Boise
3 Navy, Houston
2 USF, Tulane
1 SMU, Temple

AAC CONFERENCE
2.95 SMU - Memphis
2.88 Cincinnati - Memphis
2.51 Cincinnati - Memphis
1.76 USF - UCF
1.44 UCF - Cincinnati
1.03 Houston - Tulane

VIEWERS (millions) FOR TOP 5 RATED GAMES (Assumes 1 million for games with less than 1 million)
16.44 Memphis
11.48 Cincinnati
10.54 Houston (2 games added at 1 million/game)
7.60 UCF (4 games, 1 game added)
7.39 Boise (4 games, 1 game added)

(07-28-2021 10:41 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 02:52 AM)3rdgenerationtiger Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:03 PM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 08:38 PM)3rdgenerationtiger Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 07:08 PM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  adding 4 schools could keep it around $20 million.

If one of those schools was Notre Dame.

nope. Our 4 schools have put the AAC where it is now in the landscape of college football and basketball.
Without us 4...the AAC's tv deal looks like CUSA.

If that was the case then why does the university have to contract with WMC to produce the games on ESPN+? Better yet, if these 4 schools are so valuable, why are any games on ESPN+?

At $9 Million per school, the conference would get $72 Million. To get to $20 million per school, the B12 with 4 new schools would have to generate $240 Million. That would equal the 4 schools generating $42 Million in revenue each. That would equal $168 Million for the big AAC 4.

If true, then the AAC would be getting $15 Million each with Wichita’s State getting a full share. And that’s figuring the other 7 schools generating zero revenue.

Face it, if these 4 schools could be worth that much, they’d have been long gone from the AAC.

Probably half of P5 teams and more than that number of G5 teams have many of their games aired on ESPN+/ESPN3. It's not your fault that you wouldn't know that; most just assume that everyone plays all their games on major networks.

It’s not your fault that you don’t know that ESPN produces the P5 games and the only way the AAC games get on ESPN+’is for the school to self produce.

(07-28-2021 11:20 AM)3rdgenerationtiger Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 10:41 AM)Stammers Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 02:52 AM)3rdgenerationtiger Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:03 PM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 08:38 PM)3rdgenerationtiger Wrote:  If one of those schools was Notre Dame.

nope. Our 4 schools have put the AAC where it is now in the landscape of college football and basketball.
Without us 4...the AAC's tv deal looks like CUSA.

If that was the case then why does the university have to contract with WMC to produce the games on ESPN+? Better yet, if these 4 schools are so valuable, why are any games on ESPN+?

At $9 Million per school, the conference would get $72 Million. To get to $20 million per school, the B12 with 4 new schools would have to generate $240 Million. That would equal the 4 schools generating $42 Million in revenue each. That would equal $168 Million for the big AAC 4.

If true, then the AAC would be getting $15 Million each with Wichita’s State getting a full share. And that’s figuring the other 7 schools generating zero revenue.

Face it, if these 4 schools could be worth that much, they’d have been long gone from the AAC.

Probably half of P5 teams and more than that number of G5 teams have many of their games aired on ESPN+/ESPN3. It's not your fault that you wouldn't know that; most just assume that everyone plays all their games on major networks.

It’s not your that you don’t know that ESPN produces the P5 games and the only way the AAC games get on ESPN+’is for the school to self produce.

If true, serves me right for being snotty. My apologies. Having said that, once they are on ESPN+/ESPN3, the ratings are the ratings regardless of who produces them.

(07-28-2021 07:33 AM)Tiger Joe Wrote:  The league could also re-brand itself with a new name and form it’s own conference network (ACCN, B10n, SECN). Longhorn Network would be dead. This would bring in additional revenue.

(07-28-2021 11:20 AM)Stammers Wrote:  From previous posts. AAC/G5 games with over 1 million viewers. This was after the 2020 season (January 29, 2021)

7.72 Army - Navy
6.22 Memphis - PSU
5.44 Houston - Oklahoma
3.33 Navy - Kansas State
2.95 SMU - Memphis
2.94 Cincinnati - Ohio State
2.88 Cincinnati - Memphis
2.64 Boise - Washington
2.55 UCF - Pitt
2.51 Cincinnati - Memphis
2.07 UNC - Temple
2.07 Washington State - Houston
1.88 Ole Piss - Memphis
1.80 Wisconsin - USF
1.76 USF - UCF
1.74 Tulane - USM
1.63 UCLA - Cincinnati
1.56 Navy - Notre Dame
1.52 Cincinnati - Boston College
1.44 UCF - Cincinnati
1.38 Marshall - Boise
1.19 Boise - FSU
1.18 Wyoming - Boise
1.15 UCF - Marshall
1.03 Houston - Tulane

5 Memphis, Cincinnati
4 UCF, Boise
3 Navy, Houston
2 USF, Tulane
1 SMU, Temple

AAC CONFERENCE
2.95 SMU - Memphis
2.88 Cincinnati - Memphis
2.51 Cincinnati - Memphis
1.76 USF - UCF
1.44 UCF - Cincinnati
1.03 Houston - Tulane

VIEWERS (millions) FOR TOP 5 RATED GAMES (Assumes 1 million for games with less than 1 million)
16.44 Memphis
11.48 Cincinnati
10.54 Houston (2 games added at 1 million/game)
7.60 UCF (4 games, 1 game added)
7.39 Boise (4 games, 1 game added)

Good stuff! Thanks.

EDIT: Was the UCLA-Memphis game under 1 million? What about the Georgia-Cincy game?

AAC????

The Big 12 conference demands that ESPN cease and desist.....lol