I'll place $10,000 on the short position for this.

(07-28-2021 01:51 AM)pkptigers07 Wrote:  I really don’t get everyone’s infatuation with 4 power conferences each with 16 teams.

These are people who trim the crust off their PBJ sandwiches. They like the symmetry of it on aesthetic grounds alone, I reckon.

Ya, I highly doubt ODU ends up in the MAC.

To start - I do not think or believe that an 8x16 structure will happen or should happen. This is strictly for the exercise. Here is the order of events that would need to occur:

- Oklahoma and Texas officially join the SEC (SEC done)
- CFP Expansion Committee decides to expand the playoffs to 6 with a "conference champions only" format; CFP Committee states conference champions must be from conferences with no fewer than 16 schools [everything hinges on this]
- Notre Dame announces their intent to join the ACC in football; the ACC settles on Cincinnati as #16 (ACC done)
- B1G adds Iowa St and Kansas (B1G done)
- PAC adds Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, and Texas Tech (PAC done)
- AAC adds Baylor, Marshall, Rice, Southern Miss, UAB, and West Virginia (AAC done)
- MWC adds BYU, North Texas, UTEP, and UTSA (MWC done)
- CUSA adds Appalachian St, Arkansas St, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia St, South Alabama, Texas St, Troy, and UL Lafayette (CUSA done)
- MAC adds (as football affiliates) Army, Connecticut, Liberty, and Massachusetts (MAC done)
- New Mexico St and UL Monroe fall back to FCS

Using division set up / not pods:

SEC
East: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
West: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

ACC
Atlantic: Boston College, Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina St, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest
Coastal: Cincinnati, Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech

B1G
East: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Purdue, Rutgers
West: Illinois, Iowa, Iowa St, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

PAC
East: Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech, Utah
West: California, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington St

AAC
East: Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, South Florida, Southern Miss, Temple, UAB, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Houston, Memphis, Navy, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa

MWC
Mountain: Air Force, Colorado St, New Mexico, North Texas, Utah St, UTEP, UTSA, Wyoming
West: Boise St, BYU, Fresno St, Hawaii, Nevada, San Diego St, San Jose St, UNLV

CUSA
East: Appalachian St, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Georgia Southern, Georgia St, Old Dominion
West: Arkansas St, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee St, South Alabama, Texas St, Troy, UL Lafayette, Western Kentucky

MAC
East: Akron, Army, Buffalo, Connecticut, Kent St, Liberty, Massachusetts, Ohio
West: Ball St, Bowling Green St, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Miami (OH), Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan

FCS: New Mexico St, UL Monroe

(07-28-2021 01:51 AM)pkptigers07 Wrote:  I really don’t get everyone’s infatuation with 4 power conferences each with 16 teams.

There are a few ACC schools that could mutually benefit the Big10 financially, but from the standpoint of playoff access, would be mutually detrimental.

There aren’t any Big12 schools that would benefit the Pac12.

Only way it makes sense for most is if the 12/6 playoff model doesn’t come to fruition.

As for the AAC or any other G5 conference, what sense does 16 trans make? You aren’t protecting yourself from further poaching by pier conferences because everyone else is maxed out. All you are doing is watering down your per team payout.

No reason to do it under present conditions but any breakaway scenario would probably require it. You don't expect the AFC to have 16 teams and th NFC to have 10.

(07-28-2021 01:51 AM)pkptigers07 Wrote:  I really don’t get everyone’s infatuation with 4 power conferences each with 16 teams.

Yup, people don't get it.

(07-28-2021 09:24 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  They like the symmetry of it on aesthetic grounds alone, I reckon.

That's a huge part of it, but there's an underlying reason why: human brains don't handle chaos well, they want order, structure, closure.

If it's okay for college sports to have asymmetrical conferences, why is everyone moving to new leagues all the time? And the answer is MONEY. But messy, chaotic capitalism doesn't bring closure. A 4x16 grid does.

"Super Conferences are here! Everyone's going to 16!" But we never got "Everyone to 12" at the same time. When the Pac-10 went to 12, it was as the SEC and Big Ten were going to 14.

(07-28-2021 11:27 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  No reason to do it under present conditions but any breakaway scenario would probably require it. You don't expect the AFC to have 16 teams and th NFC to have 10.

I argue that the "Impending Breakaway" has really already happened, we all just misinterpreted the form it would take. The whole concept is "64 Big Time Football Schools with all the money, all the power/free of NCAA oversight, and everyone else is shut out."

The P5 is 65 teams, with 90% of the TV money, the autonomy within the NCAA they can change the rules as they need (like, Big 12 can't have a Championship game with 10 teams, so they got a waiver).

Everyone else is shut out: Out of 248 bids to the BCS/CFP/NY6 bowls,
14 token auto bids to non-P5 (only under threat of lawsuit), and ONE at-large ever (2010 Boise State is the only at-large ever).

Since 2000, 76% of NCAA at-large bids, even though they've only gotten 70% of the NCAA tournament loot (which shows you that overrated P5 schools are getting in over better non-P5s since those percentages don't match and only Gonzaga, and like two teams from the A-10 or MWC are actually favored to win their first round game).

There's NO NEED to leave the NCAA when THEY ARE THE NCAA.


For the Breakaway Super League to happen, those leaving would have to view themselves as equals and agree to share like pro teams do, which is just never going to happen. Texas couldn't even do it in a 10-team league, but they're going to say that 63 other teams are equal to them?

The only way a 64-team super league happens is if the Big Ten grows to keep up with the SEC, and merges with the Pac-12. And those two leagues decide to match numbers and not poach each other -- like the American and National League in 1903 creating MLB.

(07-27-2021 04:58 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Why on earth would the PAC, B1G or ACC want to weaken themselves by inviting and sharing their money with any of the Little 8?

That's my issue with this theory.

I think it is safely assumed that the ACC will not expand unless ND is involved

That said, Kansas would likely be really appealing to the ACC if that happened. OK State possibly as well.

I agree.

It’s a win-win.

Old Big East is back together.
Old ACC is back together.
Old PAC-8 is back together.
Big Ten gets 2 more AAU including KU basketball to make their league even better.
Sort of Old Big 8 in a division.
AAC becomes “power” league with best of the rest/name brand schools.
Gives ESPN fill content across all time zones and the other 4 power leagues fodder to schedule that is still considered power conference teams, without having to play FCS.

Divisions & cross-overs just for scheduling.
Top 2 conference teams play in CCG.

Finally, regionally is back, while having “super conference” benefits.

(07-29-2021 01:46 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 04:58 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Why on earth would the PAC, B1G or ACC want to weaken themselves by inviting and sharing their money with any of the Little 8?

That's my issue with this theory.

I think it is safely assumed that the ACC will not expand unless ND is involved

That said, Kansas would likely be really appealing to the ACC if that happened. OK State possibly as well.

I agree with this. There are some L8 schools that could be acceptable as a tagalong with a truly valuable school like a Notre Dame. But IMO not by themselves or in tandem.

That's the problem for the L8 - it's a conference of tagalongs right now, and their big brothers have ditched them.