(07-28-2021 11:53 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 07:35 PM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 06:04 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 01:00 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 11:21 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  So KU will get its choice of either the PAC or the ACC.

If they go PAC three teams will go with them, most likely OSU, Texas Tech, and TCU. Which three will be up to the PAC

So you think that Kansas is so desirable to the PAC that not only will the PAC take them (which I doubt, btw), but will also take three undesirable tagalongs too?

You sure we're talking about Kansas here and not Texas?

They need into Texas, they aren't taking Baylor, TCU is palatable, Tech no worse than Wazzu and Oregon State.

KU is the sugar for the academic side. That Tech has been so good means they sweeten the basketball side with Kansas.

So then it comes down to K-State or OSU. I think they take OSU who again us no worse than Wazzu or Oregon St, connects Texas to Kansas, is right for geography being next to Colorado, and probably the best overall program left. Politics may play though and KState may get the baylor play into the PAC who needs to expand with us on their heels, the SEC moves, and USC being unhappy with the current state of football.

It's the sum of parts that gets them in, but no Kansas and I think the PAC votes will fall short of getting the others in. It's not a Texas move, just a math move, one that will be encouraged by ESPN and Fox who know it means the end of the Big Xii but still keep some content at about the same price maybe even save a little.

its unlikey the PAC takes anyone from Texas. State law prohibits use of California universities from traveling to states that California is not in agreement with right now.

One there are two California state schools in the PAC, Cal and UCLA. That's two no votes. That ain't enough to stop anything. USC is running that conference with Oregon and the state of California don't mean **** to them.

Ob yeah, also that's not what the law says, it says they can't use state funds to travel there.

Stanford.... and they are also barred from visiting Kansas, Iowa, and Oklahoma from the B12.
Add to that the fact that the PAC does not want the Texas schools, Kansas, Kansas State, or Ok State.

(07-31-2021 09:16 AM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 11:53 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 07:35 PM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 06:04 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 01:00 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  So you think that Kansas is so desirable to the PAC that not only will the PAC take them (which I doubt, btw), but will also take three undesirable tagalongs too?

You sure we're talking about Kansas here and not Texas?

They need into Texas, they aren't taking Baylor, TCU is palatable, Tech no worse than Wazzu and Oregon State.

KU is the sugar for the academic side. That Tech has been so good means they sweeten the basketball side with Kansas.

So then it comes down to K-State or OSU. I think they take OSU who again us no worse than Wazzu or Oregon St, connects Texas to Kansas, is right for geography being next to Colorado, and probably the best overall program left. Politics may play though and KState may get the baylor play into the PAC who needs to expand with us on their heels, the SEC moves, and USC being unhappy with the current state of football.

It's the sum of parts that gets them in, but no Kansas and I think the PAC votes will fall short of getting the others in. It's not a Texas move, just a math move, one that will be encouraged by ESPN and Fox who know it means the end of the Big Xii but still keep some content at about the same price maybe even save a little.

its unlikey the PAC takes anyone from Texas. State law prohibits use of California universities from traveling to states that California is not in agreement with right now.

One there are two California state schools in the PAC, Cal and UCLA. That's two no votes. That ain't enough to stop anything. USC is running that conference with Oregon and the state of California don't mean **** to them.

Ob yeah, also that's not what the law says, it says they can't use state funds to travel there.

Stanford.... and they are also barred from visiting Kansas, Iowa, and Oklahoma from the B12.
Add to that the fact that the PAC does not want the Texas schools, Kansas, Kansas State, or Ok State.

Stanford isn't a public school so the state travel ban doesn't apply to them. Have they implemented their own policy to this effect? If so, they could change it. Also, even the public schools like UCLA and Cal can travel to "banned" states, as long as they use private dollars to do so.

But I totally agree about the PAC not wanting any of those L8 schools anyway, so it's a moot point.

There’s a lot of heat around the idea of the Big 10 taking several PAC12 schools…. And I don’t doubt it happens.

Just a few years ago the two conferences talked about having a merger of some form, or at a minimum a scheduling agreement. The schools leading the charge were the Blue Blood programs…USC and Stanford…. In the end, the four california, Washington and Colorado wanted it but that wasn’t enough.

Now I wouldn’t doubt that the majority of AAU schools in the PAC end up in the Big 10 making double what they do now.

Then the Big 12 and PAC leftovers will merge.

I think ACC loses top 4/6 teams leaving top AAC to merge with them.

Texas/OU will be trial balloon to test out GOR.

Worst case scenario is the B12 takes UH (a lock imho), Cincy (also a lock) and some 2 school combo of USF, UCF and Memphis. If I was the B12 I'd take the 2 Florida schools.

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(07-28-2021 09:08 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 09:01 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  Frank who is going to keep this league together?

Fox doesn't want it, ESPN doesn't want it, OU and Texas don't want it, the actual.8 schools left dont want it, they want somewhere else. The Big Xii is dead, its media value minus Texas and OU is less than the current AAC. OU/Texas and their money pull is all that held it together.

KU will decide in the next two weeks where they go, which will decide who rides out with them. This is game set and match, the big Xii is dead.

LOL... nope.

Exactly. Such stupid thinking... As if KU just "decides" where to go.

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Jay Bilas on ESPN SportsCenter suggested yesterday that the SEC and ACC merge into a mega conference -- cited all the natural rivalries.

(07-31-2021 11:45 AM)b2b Wrote:  Worst case scenario is the B12 takes UH (a lock imho), Cincy (also a lock) and some 2 school combo of USF, UCF and Memphis. If I was the B12 I'd take the 2 Florida schools.

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I think Houston goes but I don't think they're a "lock." There are three Texas schools in the remaining eight already. Listened to the July 29th podcast of the past president (or some such title) of ESPN - he said the big eight needs are larger Geographic footprint right now.

(07-31-2021 11:55 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  

(07-31-2021 11:45 AM)b2b Wrote:  Worst case scenario is the B12 takes UH (a lock imho), Cincy (also a lock) and some 2 school combo of USF, UCF and Memphis. If I was the B12 I'd take the 2 Florida schools.

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I think Houston goes but I don't think they're a "lock." There are three Texas schools in the remaining eight already. Listened to the July 29th podcast of the past president (or some such title) of ESPN - he said the big eight needs are larger Geographic footprint right now.

Gee, I wonder what conference has that?

(07-31-2021 11:55 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  

(07-31-2021 11:45 AM)b2b Wrote:  Worst case scenario is the B12 takes UH (a lock imho), Cincy (also a lock) and some 2 school combo of USF, UCF and Memphis. If I was the B12 I'd take the 2 Florida schools.

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I think Houston goes but I don't think they're a "lock." There are three Texas schools in the remaining eight already. Listened to the July 29th podcast of the past president (or some such title) of ESPN - he said the big eight needs are larger Geographic footprint right now.

Yeah maybe but I think KState, KU, WVU, Ok State and Iowa State will want another Texas school in there for recruiting. It would guarantee at least one trip into Texas each season. By the same logic I think they'll choose UCF and USF.

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(07-27-2021 08:28 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The worst-case scenario for the AAC is for it to lose a maximum number — whatever that might be — of its most valuable properties.

Let's throw out Navy and Wichita State for this exercise.

Most valuable (defined about 80 percent by football and men's hoops strength but with about 20 percent academics, endowments, budgets, locations and other sports as factors) by tiers:

Tier 1: Cincinnati and Houston

Tier 2 A: Memphis, SMU, UCF and USF

Tier 2 B: Temple, Tulane and Tulsa

Tier 4: East Carolina

I painfully mostly agree with this but Temple I would argue is a above Tulane and Tulsa based on recent sports potential for football. We have a lame duck coach right now but have shown more than the former C-USA schools. Historically, our basketball is on a whole nother level than those schools as well.

We have 25 former players in the NFL right now. Tulsa has 4.

(07-31-2021 12:11 PM)b2b Wrote:  

(07-31-2021 11:55 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  

(07-31-2021 11:45 AM)b2b Wrote:  Worst case scenario is the B12 takes UH (a lock imho), Cincy (also a lock) and some 2 school combo of USF, UCF and Memphis. If I was the B12 I'd take the 2 Florida schools.

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I think Houston goes but I don't think they're a "lock." There are three Texas schools in the remaining eight already. Listened to the July 29th podcast of the past president (or some such title) of ESPN - he said the big eight needs are larger Geographic footprint right now.

Yeah maybe but I think KState, KU, WVU, Ok State and Iowa State will want another Texas school in there for recruiting. It would guarantee at least one trip into Texas each season. By the same logic I think they'll choose UCF and USF.

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Maybe those schools would want Houston for the reason you stated (location). And maybe Texas Tech, Baylor, and TCU wouldn't (location). I just don't think it's so cut-and-dry with Houston.

(07-29-2021 11:53 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  I get your point that true apples to apples would break it down to OTA comparison, ESPN comparison, etc. But true honeycrisp apples to honeycrisp apples would also have to look at OTA at noon, 3:30, 7:30, and latenight, and ESPN in each of the four timeslots, and Thursday ESPN vs Thursday ESPN2, and Friday ESPN vs Friday ESPN2, and at some point you have too few true comps. Do you compare FS1 to ESPN or to ESPN2? Do you compare FS2 to ESPN2 or ESPNU?
At a certain point, the networks are already doing the work. They're paying for the total inventory, and they're also accounting for the variable timeslots in that. Look at the press release and teleconference transcript from the AAC-ESPN deal - the talk is about 5 games on ABC, 20 games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2, and 40 games total on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU.

The AAC viewership was worth 30% of yesterday's BigXII. The AAC viewership is worth about 75% of a BigXII without UT/OU. And the value of the AAC to ESPN is increased by the length of control - since we're at the MLB trade deadline, it's like trading an established guy going into free agency for an up-and-comer with more years of team control.

This assessment is spot on. :bullseye:

Worst case is top 4 go bye bye and the remaining 7 or so need to find 5.

With every day that goes by, the worst case scenario becomes less and less likely.

ESPN knows the "hold cards" (its their casino) and - short of a quick, unexpected, group of invites - the checkmate is just a matter of time (especially since Bob blinked first).

(07-31-2021 09:35 PM)ncbeta Wrote:  Worst case is top 4 go bye bye and the remaining 7 or so need to find 5.

Worst case is that the AAC remains the 5th or 6th conference, just as it is now.

Really wgaf

Go Pirates

(07-31-2021 10:01 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(07-31-2021 09:35 PM)ncbeta Wrote:  Worst case is top 4 go bye bye and the remaining 7 or so need to find 5.

Worst case is that the AAC remains the 5th or 6th conference, just as it is now.

Really wgaf

Go Pirates

Ikr life's too busy right now for me to care. I come here for some light trolling to relieve the stress.

(07-31-2021 01:16 PM)mascotswinchampionships Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 08:28 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The worst-case scenario for the AAC is for it to lose a maximum number — whatever that might be — of its most valuable properties.

Let's throw out Navy and Wichita State for this exercise.

Most valuable (defined about 80 percent by football and men's hoops strength but with about 20 percent academics, endowments, budgets, locations and other sports as factors) by tiers:

Tier 1: Cincinnati and Houston

Tier 2 A: Memphis, SMU, UCF and USF

Tier 2 B: Temple, Tulane and Tulsa

Tier 4: East Carolina

I painfully mostly agree with this but Temple I would argue is a above Tulane and Tulsa based on recent sports potential for football. We have a lame duck coach right now but have shown more than the former C-USA schools. Historically, our basketball is on a whole nother level than those schools as well.

We have 25 former players in the NFL right now. Tulsa has 4.

I hugely respect Temple (on multiple levels) and I'm very pleased to have UC and UM in the same league with the Owls.

(07-31-2021 11:45 AM)b2b Wrote:  Worst case scenario is the B12 takes UH (a lock imho), Cincy (also a lock) and some 2 school combo of USF, UCF and Memphis. If I was the B12 I'd take the 2 Florida schools.

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That would suck for the AAC but I feel like Aresco would be aggressive in replacing 2 teams or 4 if the case arises. Perhaps the best of the MWC or best of SB/CUSA who are already in the AAC footprint. Not ideal but will allow us to move forward.

As long as the playoff has 6 auto-bids for conference champs the AAC would still have a good shot to land one each year with the remaining teams.

I really feel like Aresco is on top of this- he hasn’t been blabbing publicly which I actually like. He’s maneuvering in stealth mode.