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RE: B12 media value as low as 9 million per school without TX and OK
(07-28-2021 08:31 AM)ken d Wrote: (07-27-2021 12:23 PM)MU88 Wrote: The leftover B12 schools are way more valuable than the AAC schools. Talk of the AAC overtaking the B12 leftovers is just silly. Baylor just won the hoops title. Kansas is blueblood hoops school. Texas Tech won a title a couple years ago. Baylor, ISU, and OSU have been top 10-15 football programs recently. Even TT and KSU have had football success in the not so distant past. If the conference doesn't split up, which is possible, I would suspect the B12 would add BYU and 3 others. No chance a B12 school will leave voluntarily to go the AAC unless all other options are exhausted. Unfortunately for them, in terms of fan support, the ACC schools are second tier schools in their home states.
I would suspect Boise, CSU, UC, Memphis, UCF and USF would be the most likely B12 expansion candidates, after BYU. Adding SMU or Houston makes little sense since they already have 3 Texas schools. Of the two, Houston makes more sense given the larger alumni base.
As for splitting up, the move that makes the most sense is WVU to the ACC. They have natural rivals in the conference. It is a geographic fit. Will the ACC throw them a lifeline? ISU to the Big 10 makes sense too, but the Big 10 has indicated that it does not plan on expanding. Kansas to the Big 10 makes a little sense, but it is not as good a fit as ISU. Any school going to the PAC 12 makes absolutely no sense. They are no schools in the B12 that are a geographic, cultural or academic fit in the PAC12. I would be shocked if the PAC12 invites Baylor. Liberal California schools are not going to align themselves with a Baptist university in Waco. Same goes for TT or OSU. These are average academic schools that are in a conservative part of the country. You really think Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington or UCLA are going to going to want to align with those schools in this era of hyper partisanship?
When push comes to shove, the B12 becomes the new AAC, the conference just below the big boys but with a bit more resources AAC. I would guess the tv contract will be in the $15-$20 range. As one of or the top hoops conference, they will get $6-$8 million/year for hoops (BE is getting $5 million and this conference would be better). As a football conference, they are better than the AAC (and they are getting around $7 million/year), so tack on another $7-$12 million.
One can argue that remaining Big 12 schools are more valuable than the top AAC schools based on their recent successes on the field. But much of that success may be attributable to being in a powerful conference anchored by OU and UT. Will their recruiting be as effective in the future without those two? If not, and their on field/court performance suffers, then their value will have more to do with their ability to attract eyeballs. In my mind, that makes them more like peers to schools like UC, UCF, Houston and Memphis than superiors.
Median Attendance-4 year average:
Big 12 w/o Texas and OU 52,952
ACC 47,065
Pac 12 46,783
Mean is closer because KU has been so bad, but Big 12-2-2+2-2 is still ahead
Big 12 48,584
ACC 48,417
Pac 12 48,025
These are stronger, better supported programs. You can look at SMU, Houston, USF, Cincinnati and Temple and see that power conference membership only helped a little in their attendance.
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