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B12 media value as low as 9 million per school without TX and OK
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #81
RE: B12 media value as low as 9 million per school without TX and OK
(07-27-2021 01:26 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  
(07-27-2021 01:12 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(07-27-2021 01:02 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(07-26-2021 08:46 PM)Cowboy Frog Wrote:  I’m hearing BYU , Central Florida ,Houston and Boise …Per team conference distribution to drop by about Half ..

That is a Franken conference.

yuck.

There's no way Boise is part of a serious discussion.

1. Boise is 1400 miles away from the closest B12 school. Most of the B12 is closer to Mexico City, Mexico than Boise St.

2. Boise brings zero eyeballs

3. There are schools in the AAC that bring better football, plus millions of more eyeballs and revenue, plus a doable roadtrip.

4. Boise would bring Texas' arrogance, without the revenue stream.

Boise to Lubbock is a closer drive than Morgantown to Lubbock is.

Sounds like jealousy in your part since Memphis isn’t being mentioned at all. How’s that Tulane to Big 10 talk going? LMAO

No jealousy. It is just that Boise is a one trick pony far away, and if that trick pony comes up lame, you are stuck with an albatross.
07-27-2021 04:33 PM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #82
RE: B12 media value as low as 9 million per school without TX and OK
07-28-2021 07:56 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #83
RE: B12 media value as low as 9 million per school without TX and OK
(07-27-2021 12:23 PM)MU88 Wrote:  The leftover B12 schools are way more valuable than the AAC schools. Talk of the AAC overtaking the B12 leftovers is just silly. Baylor just won the hoops title. Kansas is blueblood hoops school. Texas Tech won a title a couple years ago. Baylor, ISU, and OSU have been top 10-15 football programs recently. Even TT and KSU have had football success in the not so distant past. If the conference doesn't split up, which is possible, I would suspect the B12 would add BYU and 3 others. No chance a B12 school will leave voluntarily to go the AAC unless all other options are exhausted. Unfortunately for them, in terms of fan support, the ACC schools are second tier schools in their home states.

I would suspect Boise, CSU, UC, Memphis, UCF and USF would be the most likely B12 expansion candidates, after BYU. Adding SMU or Houston makes little sense since they already have 3 Texas schools. Of the two, Houston makes more sense given the larger alumni base.

As for splitting up, the move that makes the most sense is WVU to the ACC. They have natural rivals in the conference. It is a geographic fit. Will the ACC throw them a lifeline? ISU to the Big 10 makes sense too, but the Big 10 has indicated that it does not plan on expanding. Kansas to the Big 10 makes a little sense, but it is not as good a fit as ISU. Any school going to the PAC 12 makes absolutely no sense. They are no schools in the B12 that are a geographic, cultural or academic fit in the PAC12. I would be shocked if the PAC12 invites Baylor. Liberal California schools are not going to align themselves with a Baptist university in Waco. Same goes for TT or OSU. These are average academic schools that are in a conservative part of the country. You really think Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington or UCLA are going to going to want to align with those schools in this era of hyper partisanship?

When push comes to shove, the B12 becomes the new AAC, the conference just below the big boys but with a bit more resources AAC. I would guess the tv contract will be in the $15-$20 range. As one of or the top hoops conference, they will get $6-$8 million/year for hoops (BE is getting $5 million and this conference would be better). As a football conference, they are better than the AAC (and they are getting around $7 million/year), so tack on another $7-$12 million.

One can argue that remaining Big 12 schools are more valuable than the top AAC schools based on their recent successes on the field. But much of that success may be attributable to being in a powerful conference anchored by OU and UT. Will their recruiting be as effective in the future without those two? If not, and their on field/court performance suffers, then their value will have more to do with their ability to attract eyeballs. In my mind, that makes them more like peers to schools like UC, UCF, Houston and Memphis than superiors.
07-28-2021 08:31 AM
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bullet Offline
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Post: #84
RE: B12 media value as low as 9 million per school without TX and OK
(07-28-2021 08:31 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(07-27-2021 12:23 PM)MU88 Wrote:  The leftover B12 schools are way more valuable than the AAC schools. Talk of the AAC overtaking the B12 leftovers is just silly. Baylor just won the hoops title. Kansas is blueblood hoops school. Texas Tech won a title a couple years ago. Baylor, ISU, and OSU have been top 10-15 football programs recently. Even TT and KSU have had football success in the not so distant past. If the conference doesn't split up, which is possible, I would suspect the B12 would add BYU and 3 others. No chance a B12 school will leave voluntarily to go the AAC unless all other options are exhausted. Unfortunately for them, in terms of fan support, the ACC schools are second tier schools in their home states.

I would suspect Boise, CSU, UC, Memphis, UCF and USF would be the most likely B12 expansion candidates, after BYU. Adding SMU or Houston makes little sense since they already have 3 Texas schools. Of the two, Houston makes more sense given the larger alumni base.

As for splitting up, the move that makes the most sense is WVU to the ACC. They have natural rivals in the conference. It is a geographic fit. Will the ACC throw them a lifeline? ISU to the Big 10 makes sense too, but the Big 10 has indicated that it does not plan on expanding. Kansas to the Big 10 makes a little sense, but it is not as good a fit as ISU. Any school going to the PAC 12 makes absolutely no sense. They are no schools in the B12 that are a geographic, cultural or academic fit in the PAC12. I would be shocked if the PAC12 invites Baylor. Liberal California schools are not going to align themselves with a Baptist university in Waco. Same goes for TT or OSU. These are average academic schools that are in a conservative part of the country. You really think Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington or UCLA are going to going to want to align with those schools in this era of hyper partisanship?

When push comes to shove, the B12 becomes the new AAC, the conference just below the big boys but with a bit more resources AAC. I would guess the tv contract will be in the $15-$20 range. As one of or the top hoops conference, they will get $6-$8 million/year for hoops (BE is getting $5 million and this conference would be better). As a football conference, they are better than the AAC (and they are getting around $7 million/year), so tack on another $7-$12 million.

One can argue that remaining Big 12 schools are more valuable than the top AAC schools based on their recent successes on the field. But much of that success may be attributable to being in a powerful conference anchored by OU and UT. Will their recruiting be as effective in the future without those two? If not, and their on field/court performance suffers, then their value will have more to do with their ability to attract eyeballs. In my mind, that makes them more like peers to schools like UC, UCF, Houston and Memphis than superiors.

Median Attendance-4 year average:
Big 12 w/o Texas and OU 52,952
ACC 47,065
Pac 12 46,783

Mean is closer because KU has been so bad, but Big 12-2-2+2-2 is still ahead
Big 12 48,584
ACC 48,417
Pac 12 48,025

These are stronger, better supported programs. You can look at SMU, Houston, USF, Cincinnati and Temple and see that power conference membership only helped a little in their attendance.
07-28-2021 11:57 AM
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mturn017 Offline
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Post: #85
RE: B12 media value as low as 9 million per school without TX and OK
(07-26-2021 12:17 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  One other thing to remember, the AAC's total revenue is not 7 million, that's only the TV portion (not including NCAA tourn credits, etc.). The 9M figure quoted by Dodds, is the B12 TOTAL revenue. The AAC total revenue may be more than 9M.

Uh, no. They get a base pay of 66M just from the CFP contract. For a few more years at least. And the NCAA credits coming to them are far more than the AAC had. That's TV revenue and is lowballed. 15-20 seems more reasonable.
07-28-2021 12:26 PM
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otown Offline
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Post: #86
RE: B12 media value as low as 9 million per school without TX and OK
This is sobering for the left behind 8
https://www.blackandgoldbanneret.com/kni...ia-ucf-aac
07-28-2021 02:32 PM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #87
RE: B12 media value as low as 9 million per school without TX and OK
Without Texas and Oklahoma in tow, there is a going to be an adjustment for the 8 schools left behind. As a UC fan, I saw firsthand what happened with the breakup of the Big East. There will be some fans not attending the games anymore because you don't have those anchor schools on the schedule. There will some recruits who will no longer talk to you because you do not play the anchor schools. There will be fans so upset by the whole deal they turn off the TV set. There may be some coaches and AD's who will leave.

It will take some time but we will find out what schools will be able to overcome the adversity and keep churning along. Some may keep humming along, but others might see an all around dip in terms of support and on the field success.
07-28-2021 02:55 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #88
RE: B12 media value as low as 9 million per school without TX and OK
(07-28-2021 02:55 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Without Texas and Oklahoma in tow, there is a going to be an adjustment for the 8 schools left behind. As a UC fan, I saw firsthand what happened with the breakup of the Big East. There will be some fans not attending the games anymore because you don't have those anchor schools on the schedule. There will some recruits who will no longer talk to you because you do not play the anchor schools. There will be fans so upset by the whole deal they turn off the TV set. There may be some coaches and AD's who will leave.

It will take some time but we will find out what schools will be able to overcome the adversity and keep churning along. Some may keep humming along, but others might see an all around dip in terms of support and on the field success.

That suggests to me that adding the top 4 AAC schools would probably be ADDITIVE to B12 value—-and would not not be “warm body” dilutive additions as some have suggested. In fact, I suspect taking Houston, Cinci, Memphis, UCF, and perhaps Temple and USF might make a profound upward adjustment in B12 tv value by getting the league into a half dozen of the very top media markets.
(This post was last modified: 07-28-2021 04:09 PM by Attackcoog.)
07-28-2021 04:06 PM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #89
RE: B12 media value as low as 9 million per school without TX and OK
(07-28-2021 04:06 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(07-28-2021 02:55 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Without Texas and Oklahoma in tow, there is a going to be an adjustment for the 8 schools left behind. As a UC fan, I saw firsthand what happened with the breakup of the Big East. There will be some fans not attending the games anymore because you don't have those anchor schools on the schedule. There will some recruits who will no longer talk to you because you do not play the anchor schools. There will be fans so upset by the whole deal they turn off the TV set. There may be some coaches and AD's who will leave.

It will take some time but we will find out what schools will be able to overcome the adversity and keep churning along. Some may keep humming along, but others might see an all around dip in terms of support and on the field success.

That suggests to me that adding the top 4 AAC schools would probably be ADDITIVE to B12 value—-and would not not “warm body” dilutive additions as some have suggested.

Yes. Again, speaking from experience, the new AAC schools like Houston, UCF, Memphis, Temple saw more support than what they were getting in C-USA (Temple was in the MAC). They were also able to recruit at a higher level. In the opposite side of the coin, look at what happened to UConn, they struggled to recruit and both football and men’s hoops basketball slid (basketball after 2014). They could never get over not playing other school’s in the northeast and blamed everything on the conference.
07-28-2021 04:11 PM
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HawaiiMongoose Offline
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Post: #90
RE: B12 media value as low as 9 million per school without TX and OK
(07-28-2021 04:06 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(07-28-2021 02:55 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Without Texas and Oklahoma in tow, there is a going to be an adjustment for the 8 schools left behind. As a UC fan, I saw firsthand what happened with the breakup of the Big East. There will be some fans not attending the games anymore because you don't have those anchor schools on the schedule. There will some recruits who will no longer talk to you because you do not play the anchor schools. There will be fans so upset by the whole deal they turn off the TV set. There may be some coaches and AD's who will leave.

It will take some time but we will find out what schools will be able to overcome the adversity and keep churning along. Some may keep humming along, but others might see an all around dip in terms of support and on the field success.

That suggests to me that adding the top 4 AAC schools would probably be ADDITIVE to B12 value—-and would not not be “warm body” dilutive additions as some have suggested. In fact, I suspect taking Houston, Cinci, Memphis, UCF, and perhaps Temple and USF might make a profound upward adjustment in B12 tv value by getting the league into a half dozen of the very top media markets.

After seeing the numbers I had the same thought. I doubt there would be a "profound upward adjustment" but I certainly wouldn't assume a dilutive effect. The key to the Big 12 would be selecting the right AAC additions. And I think that has to include Houston whether the other Big 12 schools in Texas like it or not.
07-28-2021 04:23 PM
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Dawgxas Offline
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Post: #91
RE: B12 media value as low as 9 million per school without TX and OK
(07-26-2021 09:55 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(07-26-2021 09:39 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I’ll be shocked if it’s 9 schools (assuming all remaining 8 stay put). I would have to think they’d want to appease WVU somewhat and would go UC, but why not Houston as well? Those two at minimum, especially given the years they’ve had in football and BBall. Just goes to show how important timing is.

Houston is too negative valuation for the Big 12, doesn't add a market. In short they bring next to zero additional revenue in the next media contract. But also several schools, fairly or unfairly, do not want another competitor for Texas recruiting. I like the Houston program, but they do have a small audience and they don't even carry their home city. It is what it is.

The reason I think 9 is that is the minimum to get sufficient inventory (MBB needs 70+ games for the digital channel) and play enough football games to keep the CCG (that is money), but still fewer than 9 for round robin so that schools can make up some of the drop in revenue with a road trip to a power school or a neutral site game and still have 6 home games. They really don't want more than 8 conference games without Texas and Oklahoma, they will have to seek marquee opponents in the OOC schedule. Also 9 splits the pie fewer ways, which is important in maximizing revenue.

Now down the road they can always add a 10th if the network is willing to cover the cost, and the school brings some value. But right now these schools need to maximize their individual revenue, not satisfy fans OCD itch for a round 10. The 9th may be necessary for inventory threshold., but a 10th has to expand the pie more than they eat.

Very reasonable and logical analysis.

It is true, the University of Houston is 4th in their own market behind Texas A&M, Texas and LSU. I agree next to zero additional revenue

It looks like if the Big 12 holds on to 8, they will only add one school which is BYU and the AAC remains the same.
07-28-2021 04:33 PM
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