As many people inclduing myself mentioned, it seems like the only remaining big target for P4 is ND.

This UT & OU move is so significant that the SEC is pretty much done with the expansion in my opinion.

For ND, the SEC expansion didn’t have a direct impact. But it probably have noticed that 1) the SEC schools will make much money than before, 2) scheduling SEC schools may become a little more difficult and 3) the College Football landscape is one step closer to P4 model, although the revenue imbalance within power conferences intensifies. I am aware that these factors may not alter ND’s desicion.

For the BIG, the best move is to wait until 2037 and get ND and one of its friends, most likely Pitt or Cuse. They have a significant advantage over the ACC in terms of money and will make the last big push to attract ND.

So what should the ACC offer? Yes the ACC provides more ND friendly opponents and the East Coast exposure. But is this enough? I would say the following:

1. Let ND choose 16th team whoever it likes whether it’s Navy, Cincy, or even Georgetown although the ACC probably won’t need the 16th team. (See the third point.)

2. Let ND have the excellent TV exposure. No Friday games and nationally televised Saturday games

3. Let ND play only 7 conference games while other ACC teams play 8 or 9 games. I think this is possible whether the ACC keeps divisions (ND switiching divisions every year or every two years) or goes divisionless (4-5-5 for ACC teams and 7-7 for ND)

4. Ditch the equal payout (only for ND) and give more money to ND so that the payout to ND can be at least competitive compared to the BIG’s offer.

The last item would be very controversial within the league and kind of defeats the purpose (the ACC wanted to have ND for financial gain).

So what do you think? Should the ACC bend backward this much?

Oh, if ND joins, they'll probably get all of that and more but they are not going to have to.

The 12-team playoff will eliminate any possibility that ND will ever have to join a conference.

It will be game over for the 'will ND ever join a conference' crowd.

(07-25-2021 11:42 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  Oh, if ND joins, they'll probably get all of that and more but they are not going to have to.

The 12-team playoff will eliminate any possibility that ND will ever have to join a conference.

It will be game over for the 'will ND ever join a conference' crowd.

Sure I get that.

But this thread is not about ND but about the best offer that the ACC is willing to make. The ACC is seriously going after ND, isn’t it? I think it’s good to know what is our limit.

(07-25-2021 05:14 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 11:42 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  Oh, if ND joins, they'll probably get all of that and more but they are not going to have to.

The 12-team playoff will eliminate any possibility that ND will ever have to join a conference.

It will be game over for the 'will ND ever join a conference' crowd.

Sure I get that.

But this thread is not about ND but about the best offer that the ACC is willing to make. The ACC is seriously going after ND, isn’t it? I think it’s good to know what is our limit.

They have too. But uneven revenue sharing is not a good start to building a long-term partnership. That would make resentment grow. Coaches and AD's in the ACC already are unhappy with the current deal. Pitt's coach at least aired his frustrations with his named attached.

I believe it would be in the ACC’s best interest if they stop acting like Captain Ahab and just STOP obsessing over the notion of Notre Dame joining a conference for football??? BTW, I am not, in any way, blaming the Notre Dame crowd or school; they are acting in their own best interest. WTF, can’t the ACC brass stop chasing that big white whale and just get on with it? FFS, Notre Dame has made it abundantly clear the only way they join a conference is if their access to the College Playoff is endangered. Guess what, they kept their focus and made it possible to always get into the playoffs. So FFS, can posters please stop it with the Notre Dame thing. Geezus.

I would prefer to do the opposite. With the 12 team playoff ND won't ever join the ACC. So don't give them the landing spot for their non-FB sports. Don't give them the bowl access. Don't give them the partial schedule.

In other words ... no more partial membership. Let's stop being under the illusion that ND will ever join. It won't happen. Not now, not ever. We have enough members of the Big East in this conference, who depended on ND joining only to never see that materialize, that the ACC should be able to best internalize that reality.

This would be a change in membership. This would trigger a contractual renegotiation in TV dollars.

(07-25-2021 09:03 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  I would prefer to do the opposite. With the 12 team playoff ND won't ever join the ACC. So don't give them the landing spot for their non-FB sports. Don't give them the bowl access. Don't give them the partial schedule.

In other words ... no more partial membership. Let's stop being under the illusion that ND will ever join. It won't happen. Not now, not ever. We have enough members of the Big East in this conference, who depended on ND joining only to never see that materialize, that the ACC should be able to best internalize that reality.

This would be a change in membership. This would trigger a contractual renegotiation in TV dollars.

It would trigger an (easily winnable) breach of contract lawsuit by ND, who has complied with every contractual provision of the ACC/ND deals.

Those deals run through 2036.

What would be the legal basis for the ACC to unilaterally terminate the contracts with ND, a full legal member of the ACC in good standing ??

Answer: No valid one at all.

P.S. How/why in the world did any ACC schools "depend" on ND joining in full, when ND made it abundantly clear before, during and after the deal that football would never be included???

(07-25-2021 09:03 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  I would prefer to do the opposite. With the 12 team playoff ND won't ever join the ACC. So don't give them the landing spot for their non-FB sports. Don't give them the bowl access. Don't give them the partial schedule.

In other words ... no more partial membership. Let's stop being under the illusion that ND will ever join. It won't happen. Not now, not ever. We have enough members of the Big East in this conference, who depended on ND joining only to never see that materialize, that the ACC should be able to best internalize that reality.

This would be a change in membership. This would trigger a contractual renegotiation in TV dollars.

It would be a risk but there would have to be some analysis of the various probabilities of each outcome. On Wall Street what is done for decisions like this are are upside projections of revenues and downside projections of revenues of each possible outcome are done and then probabilities are assigned to each of these outcomes before making a decision on which way to go. I would like to see some advanced analytics done before making a decision to kick Notre Dame out of the ACC is done because that might turn revenue negative for the ACC.

(07-25-2021 09:53 PM)tj_2009 Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 09:03 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  I would prefer to do the opposite. With the 12 team playoff ND won't ever join the ACC. So don't give them the landing spot for their non-FB sports. Don't give them the bowl access. Don't give them the partial schedule.

In other words ... no more partial membership. Let's stop being under the illusion that ND will ever join. It won't happen. Not now, not ever. We have enough members of the Big East in this conference, who depended on ND joining only to never see that materialize, that the ACC should be able to best internalize that reality.

This would be a change in membership. This would trigger a contractual renegotiation in TV dollars.

It would be a risk but there would have to be some analysis of the various probabilities of each outcome. On Wall Street what is done for decisions like this are are upside projections of revenues and downside projections of revenues of each possible outcome are done and then probabilities are assigned to each of these outcomes before making a decision on which way to go. I would like to see some advanced analytics done before making a decision to kick Notre Dame out of the ACC is done because that might turn revenue negative for the ACC.

ND is not one of the private schools the ACC needs to kick out.

(07-25-2021 10:48 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 09:53 PM)tj_2009 Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 09:03 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  I would prefer to do the opposite. With the 12 team playoff ND won't ever join the ACC. So don't give them the landing spot for their non-FB sports. Don't give them the bowl access. Don't give them the partial schedule.

In other words ... no more partial membership. Let's stop being under the illusion that ND will ever join. It won't happen. Not now, not ever. We have enough members of the Big East in this conference, who depended on ND joining only to never see that materialize, that the ACC should be able to best internalize that reality.

This would be a change in membership. This would trigger a contractual renegotiation in TV dollars.

It would be a risk but there would have to be some analysis of the various probabilities of each outcome. On Wall Street what is done for decisions like this are are upside projections of revenues and downside projections of revenues of each possible outcome are done and then probabilities are assigned to each of these outcomes before making a decision on which way to go. I would like to see some advanced analytics done before making a decision to kick Notre Dame out of the ACC is done because that might turn revenue negative for the ACC.

ND is not one of the private schools the ACC needs to kick out.

True. If it were possible to breach the contract and throw ND out, It would cost the league the $3 mil per year per school we got when we added ND as a partial member. That alone is enough to not consider the option. To say nothing about about what we would lose by breaching the contract.

Plus it's fun playing ND in football and men's basketball. They carry their weight in both sports.

(07-26-2021 02:16 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 10:48 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 09:53 PM)tj_2009 Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 09:03 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  I would prefer to do the opposite. With the 12 team playoff ND won't ever join the ACC. So don't give them the landing spot for their non-FB sports. Don't give them the bowl access. Don't give them the partial schedule.

In other words ... no more partial membership. Let's stop being under the illusion that ND will ever join. It won't happen. Not now, not ever. We have enough members of the Big East in this conference, who depended on ND joining only to never see that materialize, that the ACC should be able to best internalize that reality.

This would be a change in membership. This would trigger a contractual renegotiation in TV dollars.

It would be a risk but there would have to be some analysis of the various probabilities of each outcome. On Wall Street what is done for decisions like this are are upside projections of revenues and downside projections of revenues of each possible outcome are done and then probabilities are assigned to each of these outcomes before making a decision on which way to go. I would like to see some advanced analytics done before making a decision to kick Notre Dame out of the ACC is done because that might turn revenue negative for the ACC.

ND is not one of the private schools the ACC needs to kick out.

True. If it were possible to breach the contract and throw ND out, It would cost the league the $3 mil per year per school we got when we added ND as a partial member. That alone is enough to not consider the option. To say nothing about about what we would lose by breaching the contract.

Plus it's fun playing ND in football and men's basketball. They carry their weight in both sports.

And another thing. Adding ND for 5 shared games only brought the league $3 mil more per school per year. How much more is ESPN supposed to pony up for 3 more shared games? I can't imagine that it would be more than another $3 mil per school per year and that's not really going to make a dent in the difference between us and the SEC/B1G. So all this hoping for a miracle really doesn't have a big pay off at the end any way.

(07-25-2021 09:40 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 09:03 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  I would prefer to do the opposite. With the 12 team playoff ND won't ever join the ACC. So don't give them the landing spot for their non-FB sports. Don't give them the bowl access. Don't give them the partial schedule.

In other words ... no more partial membership. Let's stop being under the illusion that ND will ever join. It won't happen. Not now, not ever. We have enough members of the Big East in this conference, who depended on ND joining only to never see that materialize, that the ACC should be able to best internalize that reality.

This would be a change in membership. This would trigger a contractual renegotiation in TV dollars.

It would trigger an (easily winnable) breach of contract lawsuit by ND, who has complied with every contractual provision of the ACC/ND deals.

Those deals run through 2036.

What would be the legal basis for the ACC to unilaterally terminate the contracts with ND, a full legal member of the ACC in good standing ??

Answer: No valid one at all.

P.S. How/why in the world did any ACC schools "depend" on ND joining in full, when ND made it abundantly clear before, during and after the deal that football would never be included???

I really don’t really care what Notre Dame does or wants, but if you think your going to be able to schedule all those teams like you have in the past with the new Super Conference Era where 9 or 10 conference games will be played good luck. Notre Dames SOS isn’t going to be what it once was. The days of having Mich State, Stanford, Michigan, USC, Pitt, Navy and random power 5 school along with your cupcakes UConn, Nevada, Toledo, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan.

I do think ND will be looking at their pros and cons a little harder these days, and you can always say the schedule is set for the next what ever many season, but if these bigger conferences come about do you think they are going to be adding Notre Dame to their schedules I don’t think so. You may get in with an undefeated season, but one loss you will always be on the fence, but in a conference you will have a open path to CFP no issues each and every year. Again I don’t care what ND does in or out should be the option, but I assure you if ESPN would like to include them they will make an offer that will be very hard to refuse IMO.

(07-26-2021 02:16 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  True. If it were possible to breach the contract and throw ND out, It would cost the league the $3 mil per year per school we got when we added ND as a partial member. That alone is enough to not consider the option. To say nothing about about what we would lose by breaching the contract.

Plus it's fun playing ND in football and men's basketball. They carry their weight in both sports.

$3m/yr/school is AAC money. ND is worth more than that, even as a partial. Assuming the person negotiating on behalf of the ACC isn't a moron looking out for Raycom.

The real question is how much should the ACC bend backward to get Texas and Oklahoma? They are actively looking to move conferences, ND is not. I posted in another thread this idea. If ESPN will put up the money to make it happen. Realistically, it should be a wash financially for them whether they jump to the SEC or ACC.

Offer TX and OU and tell them they can bring a friend. That puts us at 18. If we can convince ND to join, invite Navy as a FB only. That puts us at 20 for FB, 19 for BB. Divide the conference up into 5 divisions of 4. Everybody plays their division and one from each of the others for a 7 game conference schedule. This way everyone plays everyone once every 4 years. For BB everyone plays once and 2 teams play twice for a 20 game schedule. We gain the TX market for the ACC Network, and the 4 western teams become one pod. They also give our non revenue sports a travel partner. It would also give the ACC 4 members in the central time zone. This would help with TV scheduling.

Currently we provide to ESPN:
56 conference football games plus 2-3 ND games annually.
150 conference BB games.

Under this proposal we would provide:
70 conference football games.
190 conference BB games.

I understand that ND doesn't want to join a conference, but the opportunity to play marquee games against OU and UT along with keeping Navy on the schedule as a conference game might tempt them. They would still have 5 OOC games a year to play USC, and a B1G opponent or 2 with games left over. This also frees up our 4 members who have a standing rivalry with the SEC. They now have 5 non conference games to work. ND is now a conference member freeing up a game every 3 years.

IF ND says no, go with 18 and scrap the divisions all together. 3 permanent and 5 rotating opponents on an 8 game schedule. You still see every conference member once during a 4 year period. Every student athlete will play every conference member at least once assuming they play all 4 years.

at 18 we would provide to ESPN:
72 conference games in FB.
180 conference games in BB.

Does 7 conference games and access to the east, south, and southwest in conference together with Navy being a conference game get ND to jump in?

(07-25-2021 11:42 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  Oh, if ND joins, they'll probably get all of that and more but they are not going to have to.

The 12-team playoff will eliminate any possibility that ND will ever have to join a conference.

It will be game over for the 'will ND ever join a conference' crowd.

The death of the B12 would virtually ensure that the ACC champion will progress directly to the quarterfinals (round of 8) every season. Under the current version of the 12 team playoff as proposed, even if ND were number one, they would be required to participate in the play in round.

(07-25-2021 09:03 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  I would prefer to do the opposite. With the 12 team playoff ND won't ever join the ACC. So don't give them the landing spot for their non-FB sports. Don't give them the bowl access. Don't give them the partial schedule.

In other words ... no more partial membership. Let's stop being under the illusion that ND will ever join. It won't happen. Not now, not ever. We have enough members of the Big East in this conference, who depended on ND joining only to never see that materialize, that the ACC should be able to best internalize that reality.

This would be a change in membership. This would trigger a contractual renegotiation in TV dollars.

I understand that this is a hot-take and where this sentiment is coming from, but it is misplaced. Besides all the points made by TerryD, let us not forget that without Notre Dame, there would be no ACCN. It is just that simple. So this is business; no one is in this deal for love, just money. Let us keep that in mind.

(07-26-2021 10:02 AM)JAE_VT Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 09:03 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  I would prefer to do the opposite. With the 12 team playoff ND won't ever join the ACC. So don't give them the landing spot for their non-FB sports. Don't give them the bowl access. Don't give them the partial schedule.

In other words ... no more partial membership. Let's stop being under the illusion that ND will ever join. It won't happen. Not now, not ever. We have enough members of the Big East in this conference, who depended on ND joining only to never see that materialize, that the ACC should be able to best internalize that reality.

This would be a change in membership. This would trigger a contractual renegotiation in TV dollars.

I understand that this is a hot-take and where this sentiment is coming from, but it is misplaced. Besides all the points made by TerryD, let us not forget that without Notre Dame, there would be no ACCN. It is just that simple. So this is business; no one is in this deal for love, just money. Let us keep that in mind.

The timing of the ACCN was related to carriage negotiations, not ND. ND could leave tomorrow the ACCN will stay. ESPN is only paying $3m/yr/team for ND. I'd argue that gain is just about offset by every other team in the conference getting a crappier bowl every year. And ND hasn't exactly ushered in the end of laughably crap ACC bowl games or the disadvantageous Orange Bowl contract either.

(07-25-2021 09:40 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 09:03 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  I would prefer to do the opposite. With the 12 team playoff ND won't ever join the ACC. So don't give them the landing spot for their non-FB sports. Don't give them the bowl access. Don't give them the partial schedule.

In other words ... no more partial membership. Let's stop being under the illusion that ND will ever join. It won't happen. Not now, not ever. We have enough members of the Big East in this conference, who depended on ND joining only to never see that materialize, that the ACC should be able to best internalize that reality.

This would be a change in membership. This would trigger a contractual renegotiation in TV dollars.

It would trigger an (easily winnable) breach of contract lawsuit by ND, who has complied with every contractual provision of the ACC/ND deals.

Those deals run through 2036.

What would be the legal basis for the ACC to unilaterally terminate the contracts with ND, a full legal member of the ACC in good standing ??

Answer: No valid one at all.

P.S. How/why in the world did any ACC schools "depend" on ND joining in full, when ND made it abundantly clear before, during and after the deal that football would never be included???

Here's your $3m/yr in damages. We'll be going on the open market now to recoup that.

Nobody knows what will happen and probably everyone's opinions will turn out to wrong, but here is mine (I am often wrong but not shy with opinions):

--ND will soon charge subscriptions for Fighting Irish TV. David Hale estimated that ND can find 250,000 subscribers at $100/year. If true, that is $25 million dollars a year in revenue that ND keeps to itself.

--ND will soon be looking to renew its NBC deal which expires in 2025. Either NBC will have to pony up lots more money or ND will call CBS or ESPN or Fox or hell, Amazon.

--ND is not going to panic (it never does) and is going to ride the independence train as long as humanly possible (see points #1 and #2). It will "monitor the landscape" and wait for all the dust to settle.

--If 2 superconferences emerge, ND will join the Big Ten in the early 2030s and negotiate its way out of the remaining ACC contracts/GOR and make what, $80 million a year.

It is possible that ND will join the ACC in full if 2 superconferences fail to emerge, but that will take a monumental job by the Commissioner to pull off.

(07-25-2021 11:37 AM)random asian guy Wrote:  As many people inclduing myself mentioned, it seems like the only remaining big target for P4 is ND.

This UT & OU move is so significant that the SEC is pretty much done with the expansion in my opinion.

For ND, the SEC expansion didn’t have a direct impact. But it probably have noticed that 1) the SEC schools will make much money than before, 2) scheduling SEC schools may become a little more difficult and 3) the College Football landscape is one step closer to P4 model, although the revenue imbalance within power conferences intensifies. I am aware that these factors may not alter ND’s desicion.

For the BIG, the best move is to wait until 2037 and get ND and one of its friends, most likely Pitt or Cuse. They have a significant advantage over the ACC in terms of money and will make the last big push to attract ND.

So what should the ACC offer? Yes the ACC provides more ND friendly opponents and the East Coast exposure. But is this enough? I would say the following:

1. Let ND choose 16th team whoever it likes whether it’s Navy, Cincy, or even Georgetown although the ACC probably won’t need the 16th team. (See the third point.)

2. Let ND have the excellent TV exposure. No Friday games and nationally televised Saturday games

3. Let ND play only 7 conference games while other ACC teams play 8 or 9 games. I think this is possible whether the ACC keeps divisions (ND switiching divisions every year or every two years) or goes divisionless (4-5-5 for ACC teams and 7-7 for ND)

4. Ditch the equal payout (only for ND) and give more money to ND so that the payout to ND can be at least competitive compared to the BIG’s offer.

The last item would be very controversial within the league and kind of defeats the purpose (the ACC wanted to have ND for financial gain).

So what do you think? Should the ACC bend backward this much?

Absolutely Not!
If they want to join, we should accept them, if they don't, that's fine.