HAfter UT and OUgive the Big 12 official notice they are leaving, I am confident the next move will not be the Pac, ACC, or B1G taking in one of the remaining eight.

As Frank the Tank pointed out, the B1G already is ahead of the SEC in revenue, and they're up for new contracts withing the next few years. They're in no rush to make rash decisions. They're not in desperation mode.

The ACC's expansion priority in Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. WVU, in their eyes, has academic blemishes. Plus, as long as the ACC is at 14 football members, they would need to add two members to keep even divisions, putting them at 17 for basketball. There simply aren't two schools that would give them the bump they need. They need Notre Dame for football, plus whoever's else.

The Pac-12 could certainly use some new schools, but without Texas or OU as an option, their membership is going to take a long time to come to a decison. It'll take a ton of convincing to get those four AAU California schools to sign off on non-AAU schools. Conversely, it'll take a lot of convincing the remaining membership to add AAU schools because they don't pack enough punch for media revenue.

The remaining Big 12 schools, meanwhile, will have a major sense of urgency to mitigate their losses by adding Cincinnati and some other school. And I'm 100% confident Cincinnati and name-your-second-school will jump at the chance to join the Big 12 rather than try to twist Big 12 schools' arms into joining their league.

Other schools may get invitations to "P4" leagues later on, but they'll need to act right away to scrap together the best league they can rather than waiting for an invitation that may never come.

(07-25-2021 10:11 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  HAfter UT and OUgive the Big 12 official notice they are leaving, I am confident the next move will not be the Pac, ACC, or B1G taking in one of the remaining eight.

As Frank the Tank pointed out, the B1G already is ahead of the SEC in revenue, and they're up for new contracts withing the next few years. They're in no rush to make rash decisions. They're not in desperation mode.

The ACC's expansion priority in Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. iPlus, as long as the ACC is at 14 football members, they would need to add two members to keep even divisions, putting them at 17 for basketball. There simply aren't two schools that would give them the bump they need. They need Notre Dame for football, plus whoever's else.

The Pac-12 could certainly use some new schools, but without Texas or OU as an option, their membership is going to take a long time to come to a decison. It'll take a ton of convincing to get those four AAU California schools to sign off on non-AAU schools. Conversely, it'll take a lot of convincing the remaining membership to add AAU schools because they don't pack enough punch for media revenue.

The remaining Big 12 schools, meanwhile, will have a major sense of urgency to mitigate their losses by adding Cincinnati and some other school. And I'm 100% confident Cincinnati and name-your-second-school will jump at the chance to join the Big 12 rather than try to twist Big 12 schools' arms into joining their league.

Other schools may get invitations to "P4" leagues later on, but they'll need to act right away to scrap together the best league they can rather than waiting for an invitation that may never come.

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B$G will probably vet Kansas, but its hard to see who else they could add, unless they can monetize basketball more with someone like UConn.

Pac will look hard at adding a Texas wing with TCU and 1 to 3 others, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St., Baylor, Iowa St., Kansas St. in about that order.

Remaining teams will immediately start the expansion process, if they haven't already (Big XII office -- need an outsider to lead that effort? LMK.). If the rules allow 8 "yes"es to approve, then will vote two to six in now if UT and OU are still voting members at that point. UT's and OU's exit fees, if they negotiate a departure before the end of the GoR, can be used to help bring in new teams sooner rather than later.

In any case, at least two new teams in-place when OU and UT go.

Candidates: Think about what WVU did to get in ASAP -- hopefully it won't be as bad a scramble as back then, but ...

(07-25-2021 10:15 AM)bullet Wrote:  B$G will probably vet Kansas, but its hard to see who else they could add, unless they can monetize basketball more with someone like UConn.

Pac will look hard at adding a Texas wing with TCU and 1 to 3 others, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St., Baylor, Iowa St., Kansas St. in about that order.

Oh, for sure. But I expect that will all take a while, and those leagues have a lot of time to deliberate. None of them are getting raised anytime soon. And I just don't think the remaining Big 12 schools will just sit on their hands waiting around when they need, bare minimum one more member to get to nine, and they probably need to get back to 10. And there is no doubt in my mind that any school that's not already in an autonomous conference will say yes before the Big 12 even finishes asking the question. Thet keep their NCAA autonomy. They keep the UT/OU exit fees and receive new members' entry fees, rather than paying exit fees and entry fees to the MW or AAC.

The AAC will bend over backwards trying to get any current Big 12 school to join them, whereas the remaining Big 12 schools will merely need to ask.

(07-25-2021 10:30 AM)PlayBall! Wrote:  Remaining teams will immediately start the expansion process, if they haven't already (Big XII office -- need an outsider to lead that effort? LMK.).

I agree. Some have suggested staying at 8, recreating the old Big 8.

IMO that isn't happening. The Big 12 will need some comparable warm bodies, and comparable warm bodies are available.

I think the Big 12 extend invitations to new members this Fall, after everything calms down a bit. That also gives time to new potential members to cook their books, solicit big donations and make themselves as attractive as they can be for the expansion process.

Cincinnati, with the year they are expected to have in football, is in prime position.

I could be wrong, but I think Dana Holgorsen actually has a salary bump in his contract if UH gets into the Big 12. Remember reading that somewhere - maybe it was Attackcoog.

I would guess today that Cincinnati and Houston are the top two candidates. UCF and BYU are right there too.

Its hard to see the ACC being interested in going to 17. And would they really go to 15 for football? Would WVU be enough to get ESPN to reopen their contract? Pitt and SU gave them a big raise. I think ACC stands pat unless they can get Notre Dame interested.

Oklahoma St. officials are saying they will talk to the Big 10. Just don't see that happening. Kansas is probably the only one the Big 10 would be interested in. Just don't think Kansas and Iowa St. or UConn would generate enough revenue.

SEC isn't going to be in any hurry to get to 18 or 20 with Big 12 schools.

So that leaves the Pac 12. With the SEC at 16, ACC at 14.5 and B$G at 14, do they feel the need to get in the Central Time Zone and get to 14 or 16? With a new contract, they could do a strategic move while masking that they might have gotten more per school with 12 than 14. TCU with Texas Tech or Oklahoma St. or Kansas? TCU has had the most football success and is in DFW. Texas Tech reinforces the strength in DFW as they had the 2nd most alumni in the metro after UT. Kansas, of course, is a basketball blue blood. Oklahoma St. leads the Big 12 in national titles (4th nationally behind Stanford, UCLA and USC) so they fit that way into the "conference of champions."

(07-25-2021 11:01 AM)bullet Wrote:  Its hard to see the ACC being interested in going to 17. And would they really go to 15 for football? Would WVU be enough to get ESPN to reopen their contract? Pitt and SU gave them a big raise. I think ACC stands pat unless they can get Notre Dame interested.

Oklahoma St. officials are saying they will talk to the Big 10. Just don't see that happening. Kansas is probably the only one the Big 10 would be interested in. Just don't think Kansas and Iowa St. or UConn would generate enough revenue.

SEC isn't going to be in any hurry to get to 18 or 20 with Big 12 schools.

So that leaves the Pac 12. With the SEC at 16, ACC at 14.5 and B$G at 14, do they feel the need to get in the Central Time Zone and get to 14 or 16? With a new contract, they could do a strategic move while masking that they might have gotten more per school with 12 than 14. TCU with Texas Tech or Oklahoma St. or Kansas? TCU has had the most football success and is in DFW. Texas Tech reinforces the strength in DFW as they had the 2nd most alumni in the metro after UT. Kansas, of course, is a basketball blue blood. Oklahoma St. leads the Big 12 in national titles (4th nationally behind Stanford, UCLA and USC) so they fit that way into the "conference of champions."

Unless the PAC leadership change their academic standards, I just don’t see a PAC acquisition of these schools. The other factor is that many of the Big 8 rely on Texas to recruit and for student enrollment. In this regard, I think Baylor/Tech/TCU/OSU are stronger together than apart. I just don’t see all of them getting a life raft off.

(07-25-2021 10:32 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 10:30 AM)PlayBall! Wrote:  Remaining teams will immediately start the expansion process, if they haven't already (Big XII office -- need an outsider to lead that effort? LMK.).

I agree. Some have suggested staying at 8, recreating the old Big 8.

IMO that isn't happening. The Big 12 will need some comparable warm bodies, and comparable warm bodies are available.

8 is really too few for non-rev sports. Only the Ivy League is 8 by choice.

They need Houston to strengthen them in Texas. BYU is a "P" level program. So those are the first two. They probably go to 12. Cincinnati is logical unless they want to double down in Florida with UCF and USF. Cincinnati/UCF seems most likely, but they might also pair Colorado St. or SMU or Tulane with Cincinnati to avoid stretching themselves too much geographically with a Florida expansion.

If they are trying to distance themselves from the G5, they go for Houston, BYU, Cincinnati, UCF, USF and SMU (biggest budget in the G5--not counting indies UConn and BYU).

No reason ACC will go to 15 or 16 as they could have taken UC all along who I believe is ahead of WVU in priority. I can’t see them taking both WVU and UC unless they get raided by B1G or SEC. TCU another possibility.

PAC will stand pat. No value I can see to expanding.

B1G can add CU and Kansas if they want 16 for the sake of 16. PAC would could backfill with TCU. If they wanted a Pac16 they could add 4 or 5: OSU, TTech, KSU, TCU and perhaps SDSU.

ACC could go to 16 with WVU, UC, Baylor. One of those schools would be out of the mix if the P4 all went to 16.

(07-25-2021 11:12 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  No reason ACC will go to 15 or 16 as they could have taken UC all along who I believe is ahead of WVU in priority. I can’t see them taking both WVU and UC unless they get raided by B1G or SEC. TCU another possibility.

PAC will stand pat. No value I can see to expanding.

B1G can add CU and Kansas if they want 16 for the sake of 16. PAC would could backfill with TCU. If they wanted a Pac16 they could add 4 or 5: OSU, TTech, KSU, TCU and perhaps SDSU.

ACC could go to 16 with WVU, UC, Baylor. One of those schools would be out of the mix of the P4 all went to 16.

Would the PAC-12 even expand back to 12 if the Big Ten added Colorado? I could see them stay at 11 and go round robin or drop to 8 conference games in football, double round robin in basketball. Now if they expanded to get to 14-16, that's probably a different story.

(07-25-2021 10:11 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  HAfter UT and OUgive the Big 12 official notice they are leaving, I am confident the next move will not be the Pac, ACC, or B1G taking in one of the remaining eight.

As Frank the Tank pointed out, the B1G already is ahead of the SEC in revenue, and they're up for new contracts withing the next few years. They're in no rush to make rash decisions. They're not in desperation mode.

The ACC's expansion priority in Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. WVU, in their eyes, has academic blemishes. Plus, as long as the ACC is at 14 football members, they would need to add two members to keep even divisions, putting them at 17 for basketball. There simply aren't two schools that would give them the bump they need. They need Notre Dame for football, plus whoever's else.

The Pac-12 could certainly use some new schools, but without Texas or OU as an option, their membership is going to take a long time to come to a decison. It'll take a ton of convincing to get those four AAU California schools to sign off on non-AAU schools. Conversely, it'll take a lot of convincing the remaining membership to add AAU schools because they don't pack enough punch for media revenue.

The remaining Big 12 schools, meanwhile, will have a major sense of urgency to mitigate their losses by adding Cincinnati and some other school. And I'm 100% confident Cincinnati and name-your-second-school will jump at the chance to join the Big 12 rather than try to twist Big 12 schools' arms into joining their league.

Other schools may get invitations to "P4" leagues later on, but they'll need to act right away to scrap together the best league they can rather than waiting for an invitation that may never come.

I agee with your logic. I’m sure the B1G, ACC and Pac-12 are all weighing their options but in the end none of them is likely to find it worth their while to cherry-pick what’s left of the Big 12.

Should that become clear, I think the remaining Big 12 members will decide it makes more sense to backfill with just one or two additions than with four or more. If they aren’t facing an existential threat then their top priority will be to keep their residual media value from plummeting even further. You don’t do that by adding half a dozen G5 schools.

BYU will get the first look, as the most P5-like of the non-P5 schools other than Notre Dame. But it’s not clear that BYU would still want to come aboard, and even if they do I suspect the same “complications” that took BYU out of the running in 2016 will derail them again.

At that point I agree that Cincinnati becomes a slam dunk as one backfill addition. Assuming there’s appetite for one more I still lean toward Houston as the other. There may be some resistance from the remaining Big 12 Texas members but Houston seems to tick too many boxes to be passed over: location in a huge media market within the existing footprint, competitive football with high upside potential, great hoops program, public R1 research university.

I have no doubt that Boise State, Memphis, UCF and USF will also get looks but none of them appear to bring any more to the table than Cincinnati and Houston.

(07-25-2021 11:54 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 11:12 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  No reason ACC will go to 15 or 16 as they could have taken UC all along who I believe is ahead of WVU in priority. I can’t see them taking both WVU and UC unless they get raided by B1G or SEC. TCU another possibility.

PAC will stand pat. No value I can see to expanding.

B1G can add CU and Kansas if they want 16 for the sake of 16. PAC would could backfill with TCU. If they wanted a Pac16 they could add 4 or 5: OSU, TTech, KSU, TCU and perhaps SDSU.

ACC could go to 16 with WVU, UC, Baylor. One of those schools would be out of the mix of the P4 all went to 16.

Would the PAC-12 even expand back to 12 if the Big Ten added Colorado? I could see them stay at 11 and go round robin or drop to 8 conference games in football, double round robin in basketball. Now if they expanded to get to 14-16, that's probably a different story.

Yes definitely possible they sit on their arse and let the dust settle. It doesn’t put the “Big 9” away by just losing KU. They will still be in a strong position relative to the PAC11. If the Big 12 adds Memphis, UC, and Houston that more than makes up for KU. Football will be as strong as the PAC 11 most years.

If I were them I’d do a KSU OSU TCU Tech pod and get into that time zone. If Colorado leaves with KU to the B1G there are backfilling options including ISU worst case scenario.

(07-25-2021 01:06 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 11:54 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 11:12 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  No reason ACC will go to 15 or 16 as they could have taken UC all along who I believe is ahead of WVU in priority. I can’t see them taking both WVU and UC unless they get raided by B1G or SEC. TCU another possibility.

PAC will stand pat. No value I can see to expanding.

B1G can add CU and Kansas if they want 16 for the sake of 16. PAC would could backfill with TCU. If they wanted a Pac16 they could add 4 or 5: OSU, TTech, KSU, TCU and perhaps SDSU.

ACC could go to 16 with WVU, UC, Baylor. One of those schools would be out of the mix of the P4 all went to 16.

Would the PAC-12 even expand back to 12 if the Big Ten added Colorado? I could see them stay at 11 and go round robin or drop to 8 conference games in football, double round robin in basketball. Now if they expanded to get to 14-16, that's probably a different story.

Yes definitely possible they sit on their arse and let the dust settle. It doesn’t put the “Big 9” away by just losing KU. They will still be in a strong position relative to the PAC11. If the Big 12 adds Memphis, UC, and Houston that more than makes up for KU. Football will be as strong as the PAC 11 most years.

If I were them I’d do a KSU OSU TCU Tech pod and get into that time zone. If Colorado leaves with KU to the B1G there are backfilling options including ISU worst case scenario.

I believe CO and KU to B1G is the most likely at this point - CO market more than worth the add for B1G, KU and NE past Big 8 rivals. Lots of KU fans still in Denver area, lots of travel between KC area and Denver.

If KU goes, and the little 7 need to backfill - I can see Cinci, BYU and Houston be automatic adds to get back to 10 - they're probably gonna have to do something unexpected - UCF and USF to get to 12.

(07-25-2021 11:12 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I believe CO and KU to B1G is the most likely at this point - CO market more than worth the add for B1G

How do you make an argument that CO and KU are worth $100M+ per year? Because that's how much the TV partners would have to pony up each year for those additions.