This is looking further down the conferenfe realignment line, but let's say the Big 12 goes aggressive and adds 5+ AAC schools and the leftover schools panic. Would a school like Rice look for C-USA to add schools like NMST (not AAC), whoever is left from Memphis, SMU, Tulsa, Tulane to join with UTEP, LA Tech, UTSA, Southern Miss, and maybe North Texas to form a new western division conference.

Meanwhile C-USA east would add a couple schools to get to 10 (maybe East Carolina, James Madison, Liberty, or Temple). There would still be 10 FBS conferences so it shouldn't significantly impact the CFP.

There may be some sense, after the Big 12 raids the AAC, to just re-org the AAC and CUSA into regional conferences.

East
Temple, ECU, Marshal, ODU, Charlotte, FIU, FAU, Navy, Etc.

West
Tulsa, Tulane, Witicha, LT, UAB, USM, UNT, UTSA, Etc.

I don't think we'll see a geographic reorganization between C-USA and the American.

If Texas and Oklahoma are the only departures, I would expect Cincinnati and Houston to be the first two gone. If the Big 12 goes to 12, Memphis is probably next out of the American; I could see BYU or Boise State sliding into to the next spot, which limits the damage to the American, and would put them at 8 members in football and in all sports.

I would very much expect the American to just stop at 10 members. I think one of those is going to be in Texas to try to keep Navy-and to a lesser extent have someone at least semi-close to Wichita State. Temple would be on somewhat of an island, so I would expect either Marshall or Old Dominion gets a look here.

The best scenario for C-USA is if the Mountain West loses an odd number of members, in which case UTEP slides over to the Mountain West. UTEP might be greatly incentivized to leave if their primary reason for being in C-USA, having conference games in Texas, is greatly reduced or possibly non-existent.

American:
West - Navy (foobtall only), SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, Rice/UTSA
East - USF, UCF, East Carolina, Temple, Marshall/Old Dominion

C-USA
West - Rice/UTSA, North Texas, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, UAB, UTEP/???
East - Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, FAU, FIU, Charlotte, Marshall/Old Dominion

Now if the Big 12 decides to go to 14 with USF and UCF, would East Carolina and Temple be more comfortable in C-USA?

American:
West - SMU, Tulsa, Rice, UTSA, UTEP/North Texas
East - Navy (foobtall only), Tulane, UAB, Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech

C-USA
West - Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, FAU, FIU, North Texas/UTEP/???
East - Charlotte, Marshall, Old Dominion, East Carolina, Temple

At that point if only one of North Texas or UTEP are still in C-USA, they might actually move to the Sun Belt with a school like Georgia State moving to C-USA. Now if East Carolina and Temple stay in the American:

American:
West - Navy (foobtall only), SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, Rice
East - East Carolina, Temple, Marshall, (Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee) or (FAU, FIU)

C-USA
West - North Texas, UTSA, UTEP, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss
East - Charlotte, Old Dominion, UAB, (FAU, FIU) or (Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee)

I just don't see a way out of independence for New Mexico State unless if the Mountain West loses 3 or more members to the Big 12. UTEP and New Mexico don't want to be in a conference with New Mexico State, but the Mountain West falling below 10 members may tie the Lobos' hands.

Even if the Big 12 were to lose six members (i.e. Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC; TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Kansas to the Pac 16), I think you're more likely to see a de facto merger between the Big 12 and American.

In perusing the cusa boards here I think there is a split or upper/lower tier breaking point in that league coming with any real realignment touching them. Mainly due to the fortunes of that conference over the last 5 years media revenue wise. The AAC and the MWC offer attractive options for those schools and likewise I think the AAC and MWC look to CUSA/BYU first over SBC or MAC.

My hope is that the Big 12 cleans out the AAC, leaving behind Temple, ECU, Navy, Tulsa, Tulane and SMU.

That will open the pathway for the long desired east coast conference including some combo of Temple, East Carolina, ODU, Liberty, Marshall, App, JMU, Charlotte, Coastal, WKU, MTSU, Ga. State, FAU, FIU.

Tulane, Tulsa, SMU go to a western conference and Navy goes indy.


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